报告导读： AI芯片 Scale up 集群扩大，带来交换芯片新需求场景，国内厂商在高速率芯 片持续突破，交换芯片国产渗透空间广阔。 舒迪(分析师)S0880521070002 投资建议： 我们预计由于AI整体支出增加，以及Scale up技术趋势带动交换芯片需求，25/26/27年中国交换芯片总规模预计分别为257、356、475亿元，同比 增速达61%、39%、33%。目前交换芯片整体国产化率较低，尤其是高端芯片市场，博通、迈威尔、英伟达等厂商占据主导地位，交换芯片国产化替代空间广 阔。我们认为国内厂商随着在高端速率上持续突破，市场份额有望逐步提升。 大模型持续演进，扩大Scale up集群是重要趋势。 大语言模型（LLM）参数规模从千亿、万亿到十万亿持续演进，发展出了数据并行、张量并行、流水并行、 专家并行等多种策略，以解决"模型太大，一张卡放不下"的瓶颈。张量并行、专家并行通信量大，对网络带宽-和延迟的要求极为苛刻，跨服务器并行将导致 性能大幅下降，而Scale up网络带宽显著高于跨服务器的Scale out网络，因此，构建高带宽、低延迟的Scale up网络是行业主流的技术方案。 海外AI芯片持续 ...

Core Insights - The report by Shenwan Hongyuan highlights a significant shift in computing power demand from single-point solutions to system-level integration, driven by the explosive growth of model parameters [1] - Two core dimensions for expanding computing power are identified as Scale-up and Scale-out, which will reshape the computing power industry chain and create investment opportunities [1] Group 1: Scale-up and Scale-out - Scale-up refers to increasing the number of GPUs within a single node, moving beyond traditional single-server limitations to a "super node" era, enabling full interconnectivity of GPUs [1][2] - Scale-out focuses on increasing the number of nodes, allowing for elastic expansion to support loosely coupled tasks like data parallelism, with essential differences in protocol stacks, hardware, and fault tolerance mechanisms [1][2] Group 2: Industry Trends and Mergers - Major chip manufacturers like NVIDIA, Broadcom, Huawei, and Haiguang are expected to deepen their focus on the Scale-up domain, while Ethernet technologies will concentrate on Scale-out [2] - Haiguang Information's planned merger with Zhongke Shuguang reflects the trend of vertical integration in the AI chip sector, aiming to enhance capabilities across communication, storage, and software [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Opportunities - AI chip manufacturers are not expected to enter the foundry business, as seen with AMD's divestment of its foundry operations post-acquisition of ZT System [4] - The industry chain may further differentiate into card design foundry suppliers and cabinet foundry suppliers, with card design capabilities becoming a key differentiator for value capture [4] - Companies to watch in this evolving landscape include Haiguang Information, Zhongke Shuguang, Inspur Information, Unisplendour, Digital China, Lenovo Group, and Huaqin Technology [4]