Core Viewpoint - The launch of D-allulose by COFCO Group marks a significant advancement in China's high-end functional sugar market and breaks international technological monopolies in the field of biological manufacturing [1][2]. Group 1: Product Launch and Market Impact - COFCO Group, through its subsidiaries, has introduced the first domestically produced D-allulose product, filling a gap in the high-end functional sugar market in China [1]. - D-allulose is recognized as a promising sugar substitute, with a sweetness level approximately 70% that of sucrose but only 10% of its calories, making it suitable for various food applications [1]. - The global D-allulose market is projected to reach $14.77 million in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 14% from 2025 to 2034 [1]. Group 2: Industry and Health Implications - The introduction of D-allulose aligns with national public health initiatives, such as the "Weight Management Year," providing essential support for the Healthy China strategy [2]. - The product opens new innovation opportunities in low-sugar tea and baking industries, allowing consumers to enjoy healthier sweetness without compromising taste [2]. Group 3: Technological Advancements and Research - COFCO Group has invested significantly in research and development, successfully developing high-performance D-allulose-3-epimerase after extensive trials and genetic modifications [2]. - The company has established a comprehensive patent portfolio related to the biological synthesis of D-allulose, covering production strains, enzyme preparations, and separation processes, with 10 core patents already authorized [2][3]. - COFCO Group's commitment to technological innovation is reflected in its strategic initiatives, including policies that incentivize research and development as a core part of its business strategy [3].

中证报中证网讯(记者傅苏颖)9月23日，由中粮集团旗下中粮生物科技、中粮营养健康研究院联合研发 生产的D-阿洛酮糖(D-allulose)产品在北京发布上市。作为国内首家通过酶法工艺实现阿洛酮糖规模化生 产的企业，中粮集团此次推出的阿洛酮糖产品不仅填补了国内高端功能糖市场的空白，更为食品工业健 康转型提供了核心原料支撑。 今年7月，国家卫生健康委发布《关于D-阿洛酮糖等20种"三新食品"的公告》，D-阿洛酮糖获批新食品 原料。根据研究机构Global Market Insight发布的数据，2024年全球阿洛酮糖市场规模为1.477亿美元， 预计2025年至2034年的复合年增长率将超过14%。 中国食品科学技术学会研究员黄建表示，"D-阿洛酮糖产品上市，将有力推动国内代糖产业结构升级。 这一产品的推出与国家正在推进的'体重管理年'等公共健康倡议方向高度一致，为健康中国战略提供了 重要的产业支撑"。 作为中国最大的农粮食品企业，中粮集团敏锐洞察消费者趋势，开展战新产业（300832）布局。2017年 起，中粮集团旗下中粮生物科技、中粮营养健康研究院启动专项攻关，从498个基因库中筛选改造，历 经上千次突变体试 ...

Group 1 - The sugar substitute market in China is expanding, with a projected market size exceeding 400 billion yuan in 2023 and expected to reach 600 billion yuan by 2025 [2] - China is the largest producer of sugar substitutes globally, accounting for 75% of the world's production [2] - The demand for sugar substitutes is driven by health considerations, with 75% of beverage consumers in China opting for sugar-free products [2] Group 2 - Erythritol has become a mainstream sugar substitute due to its safety, zero calories, and non-impact on blood sugar levels, with the global market expected to reach approximately $910 million by 2024 [3] - In 2023, China's erythritol production capacity reached 380,000 tons, exceeding global demand, leading to price declines from 40,000 yuan/ton to 9,500 yuan/ton [3] - The erythritol industry is entering a phase of capacity reduction starting in 2024 due to previous overcapacity [3][4] Group 3 - Erythritol prices have shown signs of recovery, with current prices around 10,000 yuan/ton after a brief increase to 13,000 yuan/ton [5] - Major companies like Dongxiao Biological and Sanyuan Biological are focusing on improving production efficiency and product quality in the erythritol sector [6] - Dongxiao Biological is developing deep processing products from erythritol, such as erythritol ketone, which is gaining popularity in the European and American markets [6] Group 4 - Allulose, a new generation sugar substitute, has been approved for use in China, with a sweetness level of about 70% that of sucrose and only 10% of its calories [7] - Major sugar substitute producers are increasing investments in allulose production, with Dongxiao Biological expecting to launch its first products by the end of the year [8] - The global allulose market has grown from $33 million in 2019 to $173 million in 2023, with a projected CAGR of 33.26% [9]

Industry Overview - The domestic erythritol industry is establishing a new order after a round of capacity reduction and anti-dumping issues in Europe and the United States [1] - Erythritol supply and demand have returned to balance, but market prices remain low [1][2] - The new sugar substitute, allulose, has been officially approved and is expected to launch products within the year, initiating a new wave of competition [1] Company Performance - Sanwei Biological reported a revenue of 320 million yuan in the first half of the year, a decrease of 15.6% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 10.7% to 60 million yuan [1] - Baolingbao's performance improved significantly, with a revenue of 1.4 billion yuan, an 18% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 90 million yuan, up 33.7% [1] - Baolingbao's sugar-reducing sweetener business generated 370 million yuan in revenue, a 61.2% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin improvement of 5.6 percentage points to 14.9% [1] Market Dynamics - The erythritol market experienced a surge in demand around 2021 due to the popularity of sugar-free beverages, leading to an expansion in production capacity [2] - By May 2023, domestic erythritol production capacity reached 380,000 tons, significantly exceeding global demand, resulting in a price drop from 40,000 yuan/ton to 9,500 yuan/ton [2] - The industry is currently in a painful capacity reduction phase, with overcapacity largely resolved as some new capacities have been halted or repurposed [2] Competitive Landscape - Competition in the erythritol industry has shifted from capacity to efficiency and quality [3] - Companies are focusing on improving production efficiency through advanced technologies, such as synthetic biology and precision fermentation [3] - The market is expected to see a consolidation of smaller players, allowing leading companies to capture a larger market share [3] New Product Development - Allulose has been approved as a new food ingredient, with major sugar substitute producers increasing investments and planning large-scale expansions [4] - Baolingbao's annual production capacity for allulose is expected to exceed 5,000 tons after technical upgrades, with plans to expand by an additional 20,000 tons in March 2025 [4] - The market performance of allulose remains to be seen, as its cost is still higher than erythritol despite improvements in extraction efficiency [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic erythritol industry is establishing a new order after experiencing capacity reduction and anti-dumping issues in Europe and the United States, while a new competition is emerging with the approval of allulose as a new sugar substitute [1][3]. Industry Overview - The supply and demand of erythritol have returned to balance, but market prices remain low [2]. - The erythritol market saw a significant increase in demand around 2021, driven by products like sugar-free sparkling water, leading to an oversupply situation by 2023, with production capacity reaching 380,000 tons, far exceeding global demand [3][4]. - The price of erythritol has fluctuated, dropping from 40,000 yuan/ton to 9,500 yuan/ton, and currently stabilizing around 10,000 yuan/ton [3][5]. Company Performance - Sanwei Biological reported a revenue of 320 million yuan in the first half of the year, a decrease of 15.6% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 10.7% to 60 million yuan [3]. - Baolingbao's revenue for the same period was 1.4 billion yuan, an 18% increase year-on-year, with net profit rising by 33.7% to 90 million yuan [3]. - Baolingbao's sugar-reducing sweetener business generated 370 million yuan, a 61.2% increase year-on-year, with erythritol revenue growing approximately 89.5% [3]. Market Dynamics - The competition in the erythritol industry has shifted from capacity to efficiency and quality, with companies focusing on improving production processes [5]. - The market is expected to see a consolidation of smaller players, allowing leading companies to capture a larger market share and stabilize prices [7]. New Product Development - Allulose has been approved as a new food ingredient in China, with major sugar substitute producers increasing their investments and planning large-scale expansions [8]. - Baolingbao plans to increase its allulose production capacity to over 50,000 tons by 2025, while Sanwei Biological aims to double its capacity from 10,000 tons to 20,000 tons [8]. - The cost of allulose remains high compared to erythritol, but improvements in extraction efficiency are expected to lower prices [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The approval of D-alloheptulose as a new food ingredient in China is expected to invigorate the domestic sugar substitute market, which is already competitive with existing substitutes like erythritol and aspartame [2][14]. Industry Overview - The global production capacity of D-alloheptulose is concentrated in the US, Japan, and South Korea, with the top five companies holding approximately 70% of the market share [4][5]. - The global market for D-alloheptulose has grown from $0.33 billion in 2019 to $1.73 billion in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 33.26%, and is projected to reach $5.45 billion by 2030 [13]. Market Dynamics - The approval of D-alloheptulose is part of a broader trend where more sugar substitutes are being allowed in the food industry, leading to new product formulations that cater to consumer demand for low-sugar options [3][16]. - The competition in the sugar substitute market is intensifying, with erythritol being a widely used natural sweetener, and D-alloheptulose presenting a potential opportunity for differentiation due to its unique properties [14][15]. Production and Technology - D-alloheptulose is primarily produced through microbial fermentation and enzyme conversion methods, which have their own advantages and challenges [8][9]. - Domestic production of D-alloheptulose faces technical barriers, particularly in enzyme performance and crystallization processes, which are critical for efficient production [9][10]. Competitive Landscape - Established companies with a long history in the D-alloheptulose market have a competitive edge over new entrants due to their technological expertise and established customer relationships [12]. - The regulatory environment for D-alloheptulose production is stringent, requiring extensive safety evaluations and approvals, which can delay market entry for new producers [12]. Application Potential - D-alloheptulose has versatile applications across food, pharmaceuticals, and dietary supplements, with its ability to enhance flavor and improve product characteristics in various formulations [6][8]. - The growing consumer awareness of health and wellness is driving demand for low-calorie sweeteners, positioning D-alloheptulose favorably in the market [16].

Core Viewpoint - The leading company in the sugar substitute industry, Baolingbao, reported significant revenue and profit growth in the first half of 2025, driven by increased sales of core products and improved gross margins [1] Financial Performance - Baolingbao achieved a revenue of 1.399 billion yuan, representing an 18.02% year-on-year increase [1] - The net profit reached 92.672 million yuan, marking a 33.66% year-on-year growth [1] - The comprehensive gross margin improved to 13.17%, with core products generating 664 million yuan in revenue, up 32.15% year-on-year, and a gross margin of 17.94% [1] Product Performance - Revenue from sugar substitutes increased by approximately 61.22% year-on-year, with specific products like erythritol and crystalline fructose seeing revenue growth of 89.53% and 50.57%, respectively [1] - The company is focusing on the development of new products, including DHA algae oil and lactulose, with plans for production and licensing in 2024 [2] Market Opportunities - Baolingbao is capitalizing on the lowest anti-dumping tax rate of 34.4% imposed by the EU on its erythritol products, leading to increased sales in Europe and enhancing its domestic market presence [2] - The company anticipates significant demand growth for allulose following its approval as a new food ingredient, with plans to reduce costs and expand its application in the market [3] Industry Context - The sugar substitute industry is rapidly evolving, with increasing participation from various companies, including Baolingbao and others like Jinhe Industrial and Sanyuan Biological [3] - The company aims to leverage its technological advantages in functional sugars and enhance brand recognition and customer loyalty to maintain its industry position [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant surge in the sugar substitute concept stocks, with notable performances from several companies [1] Group 2 - Zhonghua International experienced a limit-up increase in its stock price [1] - Baolingbao saw an increase of over 5% in its stock price [1] - Huakang Co., Bailong Chuangyuan, and Xinghuo Technology also experienced upward movements in their stock prices [1]

Group 1 - The concept stocks related to sugar substitutes experienced significant fluctuations, with Zhonghua International hitting the daily limit increase [1] - Baolingbao saw an increase of over 5%, indicating strong market interest [1] - Other companies such as Huakang Co., Bailong Chuangyuan, and Xinghuo Technology also followed suit with upward movements in their stock prices [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The chemical industry stock index has significantly outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index year-to-date, with notable performances in the plastics and rubber sub-sectors, achieving increases of 48% and 35% respectively, driven by small-cap effects and the popularity of industries such as robotics and AI materials [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - The divergence between chemical stock performance and commodity futures is evident, with stock prices influenced by both EPS and valuation changes, with valuation changes being more pronounced [1][6]. - The delay in US-China tariffs and anti-involution measures have positively impacted stock valuation recovery [1][6]. - Anti-involution policies have effectively balanced supply and demand by eliminating outdated production capacity and promoting industry self-discipline, leading to an increase in chemical product prices [1][9]. - The chemical sector faces challenges of overcapacity and prices below cost due to disorderly competition, which the industry typically addresses through self-discipline, extended maintenance periods, and the elimination of outdated capacity [1][11]. Sub-Sector Performance - Four sub-sectors expected to see improved performance in the second half of the year include fluorochemicals and refrigerants, phosphorus chemicals, pesticides, and sugar substitutes, benefiting from quota policies, strong downstream demand, cyclical rebounds, and enhanced export competitiveness [1][13][14]. - Mid-year reports indicate strong performance in refrigerants and phosphorus chemicals, with expectations for continued relative gains throughout the year [1][14][15]. Recommended Investment Opportunities - Key recommendations for the second half of the year include sectors such as smart devices, phosphorus chemicals, pesticides, and sugar substitutes, with specific companies highlighted: - **Juhua Co.** (Refrigerants) - Projected profit of 2 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of approximately 150% [2][17]. - **Yuntianhua Co.** (Phosphorus Chemicals) - Last year's profit of 2.7 billion yuan, with 1.3 billion yuan achieved in Q1 2025 [2][17]. - **Yangnong Chemical** (Pesticides) - Expected slight growth in 2025 [2][17]. - **Bailong Chuangyuan** (Sugar Substitutes) - Q1 2025 profit of 80 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 50% [2][17]. Market Dynamics and Price Trends - The recent 10% increase in commodity prices is attributed to supply-demand imbalances exacerbated by anti-involution policies, which have led to coordinated maintenance schedules among manufacturers [1][8][9]. - The chemical industry is implementing measures to achieve supply-demand balance and enhance product prices through the elimination of outdated capacity and self-regulation [1][9][10]. Additional Insights - The chemical sector is currently in a cyclical bottoming phase, with expectations for gradual improvement starting in 2025 due to policy changes and improved liquidity [1][13]. - The performance of the recommended sectors is expected to continue contributing positively to earnings, with the logic of growth still unfolding [2][16]. Elasticity of Recommended Stocks - The stocks are ranked by elasticity from highest to lowest: Bailong Chuangyuan > Yangnong Chemical > Juhua Co. > Yuntianhua Co., reflecting higher growth potential in smaller market cap companies [2][18].