刚刚，后台好多朋友问，帮主啊，国家统计局刚发了上半年的工业利润数据，下降了1.8%，这是不是经济不行了？ 帮主先用一分钟讲透我的观点，想仔细听的接着往下听。 1.8%的利润下滑是警报还是机会？帮主郑重用20年经验告诉你：结构分化里藏着真黄金！ 外资和民企利润逆势涨2.5%、1.7%，传统采矿业熄火（-30.3%）vs高端制造业冲锋（+4.5%），这分明是场"新老动能接力赛"！更关键的是——毛利润暗 涨1.1%，政策驱动的智能家电、工业机器人产量翻倍，成本优化正在开花结果。 您觉得哪些行业能在利润分化中突围？评论区聊聊，帮主帮您分析！点个关注，咱们一起在市场迷雾里找灯塔。收起 首先得承认，这个数据乍一看确实有点扎眼。但您知道吗？去年同期基数高是一方面，更关键的是结构分化特别明显。说白了，现在的工业利润就像一桌 菜，有的盘子见底了，有的盘子还在添菜。比如说，国有控股企业利润降了7.6%，但外商和私营企业反而涨了2.5%和1.7%。这说明啥？外资和民企更灵 活，在市场里能更快找到新奶酪。 再看行业，采矿业利润崩了30.3%，但制造业逆势涨了4.5%。这就像一场接力赛，传统能源的接力棒正在往制造业手里递。您想想，四川 ...

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 股票代码：600423 股票简称：柳化股份 公告编号：2025-033 柳州化工股份有限公司 第七届董事会第二次会议决议公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、董事会会议召开情况 柳州化工股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第七届董事会第二次会议通知及材料于2025年7月22日以电 子邮件方式发出，会议于2025年7月25日以通讯表决的方式召开，会议应参加表决的董事7人，实际表决 的董事7人，公司监事及部分高级管理人员列席了会议，本次会议符合《公司法》和《公司章程》的有 关规定。会议由董事长陆胜云先生主持。 二、董事会会议审议情况 经与会董事审议表决，通过了如下议案： 1、以七票赞成、零票反对、零票弃权，审议通过了《关于公司前期会计差错更正及追溯调整的议案》 （详见公司同日披露于上海证券交易所网站：www.sse.com.cn及上海证券报的《关于前期会计差错更正 及追溯调整的公告》）。 公司董事会认为本次前期会计差错更正及追溯调整事项符合《企业会计准则第28号一一 ...

基本面持续疲软 短期复苏无望 过去18个月，欧洲化工行业已经经历了一轮蒸汽裂解装置关闭及下游产能整合浪潮，折射出乙烯市场基 本面持续疲软、短期复苏无望的现状。市场人士认为，面对严重的供应过剩，欧洲蒸汽裂解装置运营陷 入困局，必须进一步削减产能。 当前，尽管行业已采取措施缓解过剩，但欧洲乙烯市场仍受衍生品需求低迷与供应充足的双重压制。一 位贸易商表示："成本可负担性仍是难题，若关税政策不明确，企业很难采取实质性行动。"关税政策的 不确定性进一步打击了欧洲乙烯企业的信心。消息人士称，由于多数市场参与者等待关税政策的明确或 进展，相关业务已陷入停滞。 但是，全球裂解装置的发展和分布很不均衡。据标普全球2025年5月发布的最新《年度化学品业绩回 顾》报告，乙烷将继续作为美国和中东的主流裂解原料，这使两地石脑油路线相较欧洲更具成本优势； 而石脑油需求增长将主要来自东北亚新建炼化一体化项目。该报告还指出，预测期内东北亚仍将是全球 最大的石脑油消费地区。报告强调，全球乙烯市场除非立即进行产能整合以扭转多年产能过剩局面，否 则将陷入长期下行周期。展望未来，报告预测2028年左右全球乙烯价格将全面复苏，因乙烯需求增长最 终将超 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The theme of the chemical sector recently is the rectification expectation of plants in operation for over 20 years, with the capacity of such methanol plants in China accounting for 8%. Overseas methanol plants are operating at a high level, leading to high pressure on China's imports and a rapid increase in port inventories. Some MTO plants' maintenance plans have not been implemented, and attention should be paid to the progress of production cuts in late July. The short - term situation at ports remains weak. In the inland area, coal - based methanol plants are undergoing short - term centralized maintenance, with the operating rate at a short - term low but expected to recover gradually by the end of the month. The traditional downstream shows strong demand, and inland plant inventories have decreased again, maintaining a situation where the inland market is stronger than the port market [2] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Figures include methanol Taicang basis and the main contract, methanol basis in different regions relative to the main futures contract, and inter - period spreads such as between methanol 01 and 05, 05 and 09, 09 and 01 futures contracts [6][20][22] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures cover Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), and import spreads such as Taicang methanol - CFR China, as well as price differences between CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [24][25][31] 3. Methanol Operation and Inventory - Figures show methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated plants), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated plants) [33][34][40] 4. Regional Price Differences - Figures present price differences such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, and East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 [38][46][49] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures display production margins of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [50][53][59] Market Data Inland - Q5500 Ordos steam coal is 450 yuan/ton (+10). Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit is 615 yuan/ton (-13). Inner Mongolia northern line methanol price is 1990 yuan/ton (+8), with a basis of 179 yuan/ton (-39); Inner Mongolia southern line is 1990 yuan/ton (+0). Shandong Linyi is 2300 yuan/ton (+13), with a basis of 89 yuan/ton (-34). Henan is 2160 yuan/ton (-10), with a basis of - 51 yuan/ton (-56). Hebei is 2190 yuan/ton (+0), with a basis of 39 yuan/ton (-46). Longzhong's inland factory inventory is 352340 tons (-4560), and northwest factory inventory is 218000 tons (-10000). Inland factory pending orders are 243119 tons (+21879), and northwest factory pending orders are 113600 tons (+13600) [1] Ports - Taicang methanol is 2398 yuan/ton (+13), with a basis of - 13 yuan/ton (-33). CFR China is 273 US dollars/ton (-2), and the East China import spread is - 18 yuan/ton (+11). Changzhou methanol is 2395 yuan/ton; Guangdong methanol is 2400 yuan/ton (+15), with a basis of - 11 yuan/ton (-31). Longzhong's total port inventory is 790200 tons (+71300), Jiangsu port inventory is 454000 tons (+59000), Zhejiang port inventory is 180000 tons (+4500), and Guangdong port inventory is 106000 tons (-6000). The downstream MTO operating rate is 85.10% (+0.27%) [2] Regional Price Differences - Lubei - Northwest - 280 spread is - 15 yuan/ton (-8), Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550 spread is - 142 yuan/ton (+6), Taicang - Lunan - 250 spread is - 152 yuan/ton (+1), Lunan - Taicang - 100 spread is - 198 yuan/ton (-1), Guangdong - East China - 180 spread is - 178 yuan/ton (+2), and East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 spread is - 2 yuan/ton (+13) [2] Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see - Inter - period: Do reverse arbitrage when the MA09 - 01 inter - period spread is high - Cross - variety: Narrow the spread of PP2601 - 3MA2601 when the spread is high [3]

【现货方面】 7月21日，华东市场苯乙烯整体走高，港口库存高位运行，承压基差快速回落，下游需求跟进疲软，买 盘观望，以合约采购为主，苯乙烯行业利润尚且维持，行业开工较好，货源供应充裕。据PEC统计，至 收盘现货7340-7410，7月下7360-7420（8合约+110~130），8月下7350-7410（08合约+105~115），9月 下7320-7380（09合约+135~140），单位：元/吨。 【利润方面】 7月21日，一体化苯乙烯装置利润至347元/吨附近，非一体化苯乙烯装置利润至271元/吨附近。 【供需方面】 苯乙烯供应：截至7月17日，苯乙烯整体产量在35.87万吨（-0.41万吨），开工率至78.3%（-0.91%）。 苯乙烯库存：7月21日，江苏苯乙烯港口样本库存总量：15.07万吨，较上周期增加1.22万吨；商品量库 存在5.62万吨，较上周期增加1.12万吨。 苯乙烯下游：截至7月17日，EPS产能利用率53.18%（+2.12%）；PS产能利用率50.6%（-0.5%）；ABS 产能利用率65.9%（+0.5%）。 【行情展望】 苯乙烯行业利润维持情况下，苯乙烯开工高位运行；近期随 ...

从基本面看，7 月烧碱检修产能较 6 月减少明显，7 月检修主要集中在西北、华东。同时，烧碱 7-8 月 份新增产能或达到 110 万吨，因此供应压力会逐步增加，不过厂家在出口方面存在超卖情况，新增产能压力 基本被出口消化。需求端，非铝需求淡季，支撑偏弱，氧化铝的烧碱库存中性，出口方向支撑强，低价补库 意愿较强。 2025 年 7 月 21 日 烧碱：旺季仍有期待 | chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 | 陈嘉昕 | | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 烧碱基本面数据 | | | 山东最便宜可交割 09合约期货价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 现货32碱价格 | | | 2469 840 2625 156 | | | 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 | | | 【现货消息】 | | | 以山东地区为基准，今日山东液碱市场局部持稳观望，高度碱有前期订单支撑下，库存低位，但涨价后 高价走货不佳。低度碱高价走货放缓，各厂走货表现不一，整体库存出现累库，个别高价出现回落。 | | | 【市场状况分析】 | | | 宏观方面，短期国内受反内卷影响， ...

证券代码：605183 证券简称：确成股份 公告编号：2025-034 确成硅化学股份有限公司 第五届董事会第二次会议决议公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 一、会议召开和出席情况 确成硅化学股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第五届董事会第二次会议于2025年7月18日以通讯方式召 开。本次会议为紧急会议，会议通知已于2025年7月17日以电话、口头等通讯方式送达，全体董事一致 同意豁免本次会议的通知期限。本次会议应出席董事7人，实际出席董事7人。会议由董事长阙伟东先生 主持。本次会议的召集、召开符合《公司法》《公司章程》和《董事会议事规则》的有关规定。 二、会议议案审议情况 审议通过《关于对外投资的议案》 同意公司在江苏滨海经济开发区沿海工业园投资建设"年产10万吨（一期年产5万吨）生物质（稻壳）二 氧化硅综合利用项目"、"年产3.02万吨松厚剂项目"，项目预计总投资额9亿元人民币（该金额为规划预 算数，具体投资金额以实际使用情况为准），其中"年产10万吨（一期年产5万吨）生物质（稻壳）二氧 化硅综合利 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: Do reverse spreads on the MA09 - 01 inter - period spread when it is high [3] - Inter - variety: Narrow the PP01 - 3MA01 spread when it is high [3] Core View - Overseas methanol production remains at a high level, resulting in significant pressure on Chinese imports and a continuous inventory build - up at ports. The short - term reality at ports is weak, but the market anticipates a substantial scale of overseas gas - based methanol maintenance in the fourth quarter, leading to an optimistic long - term outlook. Inland coal - based methanol is undergoing short - term maintenance, reducing supply. Although the traditional downstream formaldehyde market is in a seasonal off - season, the开工 rates of MTBE and acetic acid are decent, indicating strong inland demand. As a result, the inventory build - up rate at inland methanol factories is slow, and the inland market is stronger than the port market [2] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol basis in Taicang, different regions' spot - to - futures basis, and inter - period spreads between different methanol futures contracts [6][10][21] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of inland coal - based methanol, MTO profit in East China, and import spreads such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam, and CFR China [25][33] 3. Methanol Production and Inventory - Information on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P production rate (including integrated plants), inland factory sample inventory, and China's overall methanol production rate (including integrated plants) is provided [35][37] 4. Regional Price Differences - The report provides data on regional price differences, such as the price difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, East China and Inner Mongolia, Taicang and southern Shandong, and other regions [39][45][48] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures display the production margins of traditional downstream products, including formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [55][57]

Group 1 - The European Union (EU) has announced three independent proposals aimed at addressing the risks of "weaponization" of critical supply chains and enhancing economic self-sufficiency [1] - The proposals include a chemical industry action plan, a medical strategy, and a reserve strategy, all targeting the EU's reliance on China [1] - The chemical industry action plan focuses on strengthening trade defenses against alleged dumping, subsidies, and overcapacity of Chinese chemical products [1] Group 2 - The medical strategy aims to reduce the EU's dependence on Chinese-manufactured pharmaceuticals, diagnostic equipment, and personal protective equipment [1] - The reserve strategy emphasizes prioritizing "trusted suppliers" when procuring critical goods, reflecting a systematic response to global supply chain vulnerabilities [1] - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen highlighted the need to rebalance economic relations with China, reduce risks, and advance global diplomatic issues, including climate change [1] Group 3 - The previous "de-risking" policy primarily targeted China, with the intent to lower dependency on the Chinese market [3] - The current EU leadership is expected to implement measures based on previous risk assessments, indicating a shift from principles to actionable policies [3] - The EU's approach to economic issues is increasingly influenced by political and ideological considerations, rather than purely economic logic [3]

Performance Forecast - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company for the first half of 2025 to be between 43 million and 48 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 64% to 83% [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 43.4 million and 48.4 million yuan, also reflecting a year-on-year growth of 60% to 78% [1] Reasons for Performance Change - The anticipated increase in net profit is attributed to a significant rise in gross profit compared to the same period last year [1] Financial Data Communication - The financial data related to this performance forecast is based on preliminary calculations by the company's finance department and has not been audited by a registered accounting firm [1] Performance Assessment Goals - The performance assessment target for the year 2025 is a cumulative operating revenue of no less than 11.5 billion yuan from 2021 to 2025 [2] - Based on the revenue situation for the first half of 2025 and forecasts for the second half, the company is unlikely to meet the annual performance assessment target [2] Stock Incentive Expenses - After adjusting for the stock incentive expenses for 2025, which are not amortized in the reporting period, the amortized stock incentive expenses are approximately -7.69 million yuan, which has increased the profit for the reporting period [2]