来源：契阔资本 01 国家统计局12月27日发布数据显示，1至11月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额66268.6亿元，同 比增长0.1%。 同比增长0.1当然是个"好事"，不过从数据的结构和趋势来看（单独看11月，工业企业利润同比下降 13.1%），大概到12月份，2025年中国规模以上工业企业的利润总额，大概率同比可能是下降的…… 这些，其实都是中国很多年来"出口创汇"的主力。 智能化产品领域增长也很快速。 如果根据细分行业来看，全年看下来，除了受周期影响比较大的"煤炭开采和洗选业"和"石油和天然气 开采业"。 当然，也要看到积极的因素，1—11月份，规模以上高技术制造业利润同比增长10.0%。 智能消费设备制造行业利润同比增长54.0%，其中智能车载设备制造、智能无人飞行器制造、其他智能 消费设备制造行业利润分别增长105.7%、76.6%、58.1%。 其中和"人工智能+"行动相关的，涨幅都很惊人。 02 全年看下来，利润下降最多的就是：纺织业（-8.2%）；服饰业（-27.1）；制鞋业（-15.7）；木材加工 （-30.9%），家具制造（-22.7%） 电子工业专用设备制造行业利润同比增长57. ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The economic structure shows internal differentiation under the situation of strong supply and weak demand in November 2025. Although there are challenges, the transformation of new and old driving forces has structural highlights, and it is expected that the annual economic development target can be achieved with the continuous policy support. In the bond market, bond yields are expected to rise trend - wise due to the revision of economic expectations [5][7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 November Economic Data Focus - **Industrial Added Value**: Affected by insufficient domestic demand and the high - base effect, the year - on - year growth of industrial added value in November was lower than expected. The year - on - year growth was 4.8%, 0.1 pct lower than the previous value, and lower than the median and average forecasts of 18 institutions. However, the month - on - month growth was 0.44%, 0.27 pct higher than the previous value, showing some month - on - month recovery [4]. - **Consumption and Export**: Consumption and export data showed a differentiated trend. The year - on - year growth of social retail sales in November was 1.3%, 1.6 pct lower than the previous value, reflecting insufficient domestic demand. The year - on - year growth of exports was 5.9%, 7.0 pct higher than the previous value [5]. - **Investment**: Fixed - asset investment was under pressure. The cumulative year - on - year decrease was 2.6%, 0.9 pct lower than the previous value. Real estate investment continued to bottom out, with a year - on - year decrease of 15.9% from January to November, and the decline was 1.2 pct larger than that from January to October [5][6]. 3.2 Structural Highlights in the Transformation of New and Old Driving Forces - **Investment Structure Optimization**: The cumulative year - on - year growth of investment in high - tech services was 4.1%, accounting for 5.4% of total service industry investment, 0.6 pct higher than the same period in 2024. - **Growth of New - Quality Productivity Industries**: The cumulative year - on - year growth of the added value of large - scale high - tech manufacturing and intelligent consumer equipment manufacturing was 9.2% and 7.6% respectively. - **Stabilizing Role of Equipment Manufacturing**: In November, the year - on - year growth of the added value of large - scale equipment manufacturing was 7.7%, and the cumulative added value accounted for 36.4% of all large - scale industries, 1.8 pct higher than the whole year of 2024, and it has exceeded 30% for 33 consecutive months [7]. 3.3 Bond Market Viewpoint - It is maintained that in the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly, structural problems such as prices are expected to improve trend - wise, and the bond - stock allocation will continue to switch, with bond yields expected to rise continuously [8].

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic policies in China are showing positive effects, with a focus on strengthening the domestic market, increasing production supply, expanding market sales, and maintaining overall stability in employment and prices, contributing to a steady economic growth trend [1] Economic Performance - Industrial production remains stable, with the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises growing by 4.8% year-on-year in November, maintaining the same growth rate as the previous month [2] - The service sector's production index increased by 4.2% year-on-year, with significant growth in information transmission and business services [2] - Social retail sales grew by 1.3% year-on-year in November, with a cumulative growth of 5.4% from January to November [2] - The total value of imports and exports increased by 4.1% year-on-year in November, accelerating by 4 percentage points compared to the previous month [2] - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1%, while consumer prices rose by 0.7% year-on-year, marking three consecutive months of increase [2] Energy and Investment - Energy supply has been strengthened to meet winter production and living needs, with significant increases in industrial oil, natural gas, and electricity production [3] - Investment in accommodation, catering, wholesale, and retail sectors grew by 7.1% year-on-year, while electricity and heat production and supply saw a 12.5% increase [3] New Production Capacity - New quality productivity is developing rapidly, with high-tech manufacturing value added increasing by 9.2% year-on-year from January to November [4] - The production of industrial robots and control systems surged by 29.2% and 87.6% respectively, indicating strong growth in emerging industries [4] - Traditional industries are also seeing improvements, with biomass fuel processing value added growing by 15.6% [4] Consumption and Investment Potential - Consumer spending is on the rise, with retail sales of cultural and office supplies and communication equipment growing by 11.7% and 20.6% respectively [6] - Online retail sales of physical goods increased by 5.7% year-on-year, accounting for 25.9% of total social retail sales [6] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6%, but project investment excluding real estate development grew by 0.8% [6] - Investment in key sectors such as equipment manufacturing and green energy transition remains strong, supporting long-term economic development [6][7]

Economic Overview - The national economy continues to show a stable and progressive development trend, with key indicators reflecting steady performance in production, employment, and market prices [2][4] - In November, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 4.8% year-on-year, with the equipment manufacturing sector growing by 7.7%, contributing 59.4% to the overall industrial growth [2][3] Market Sales and Investment - Social retail sales increased by 1.3% year-on-year in November, with a cumulative growth of 4% for the first 11 months, surpassing last year's performance [3] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, but investment in key areas remains robust due to policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and industrial upgrades [3] Foreign Trade and Employment - In November, China's total goods import and export value rose by 4.1% year-on-year, with exports increasing by 5.7%, marking a turnaround from previous declines [3] - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1%, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7%, indicating a gradual recovery in prices [3] New Quality Productivity - Significant progress has been made in cultivating new quality productivity, with high-tech manufacturing value added increasing by 9.2% year-on-year from January to November [5] - The digital economy is expanding, with the manufacturing value added of digital products growing by 9.3% and the production index for information transmission and software services increasing by 11.3% [5][6] Policy Support and Future Outlook - The macroeconomic policies implemented this year have played a crucial role in supporting stable economic operations, with expectations for achieving annual targets remaining positive [7] - International institutions have raised their economic growth forecasts for China in 2025, reflecting confidence in the country's economic resilience and potential [7][8]

Economic Overview - The national economy continues to show a stable and progressive development trend, with key indicators reflecting steady performance in production, employment, and market prices [2][4] - In November, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 4.8% year-on-year, with the equipment manufacturing sector growing by 7.7%, contributing 59.4% to the overall industrial growth [2] - The service sector's production index rose by 4.2% year-on-year in November [2] Market Sales and Investment - Social retail sales increased by 1.3% year-on-year in November, with a cumulative growth of 4% for the first 11 months, surpassing both the previous year's growth and the annual total [3] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, but project investment excluding real estate grew by 0.8% [3] - Despite a decline in investment growth, key sectors continue to see investment increases, supporting long-term economic development [3] Foreign Trade and Employment - In November, China's total goods import and export value grew by 4.1% year-on-year, with exports increasing by 5.7% [3] - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1%, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year, marking a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month [3] Agricultural Production - The grain output for the year reached 1.42975 trillion jin, a 1.2% increase from the previous year, maintaining stability above 1.4 trillion jin [4] New Productive Forces - Significant progress has been made in cultivating new productive forces, with high-tech manufacturing value added increasing by 9.2% year-on-year from January to November [5] - The manufacturing of smart consumer devices grew by 7.6%, and the digital economy continues to expand, with digital product manufacturing value added increasing by 9.3% [5][6] Policy Support and Future Outlook - The economy is expected to meet annual targets despite challenges, supported by strong macro policies and the growth of new economic drivers [7] - Consumption policies have shown effectiveness, with significant year-on-year growth in retail sales of home appliances and communication equipment [7] - International institutions have raised their economic growth forecasts for China for 2025, indicating positive future expectations [7]

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic policies in November have shown positive effects, with a focus on strengthening domestic circulation, leading to stable economic growth and a favorable environment for achieving annual targets [1] Economic Performance - Industrial production maintained steady growth, with the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increasing by 4.8% year-on-year in November, remaining stable compared to the previous month [2] - The service sector also saw growth, with a production index increase of 4.2%, particularly in information transmission and business services, which grew by 12.9% and 8.4% respectively [2] - Retail sales of consumer goods rose by 1.3% year-on-year in November, with service retail sales increasing by 5.4% from January to November, indicating a slight acceleration in growth [2] - Foreign trade showed resilience, with total goods imports and exports increasing by 4.1% year-on-year in November, a significant acceleration compared to the previous month [2] Employment and Prices - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1% in November, while consumer prices rose by 0.7% year-on-year, marking three consecutive months of increase [2] Energy Supply and Investment - Energy supply has been strengthened to meet winter demands, with industrial crude oil, natural gas, and electricity production increasing by 2.2%, 5.7%, and 2.7% respectively in November [3] - Investment in accommodation, catering, wholesale, and retail sectors grew by 7.1% each, and electricity and heat production and supply saw a 12.5% increase [3] New Production Capacity and Industrial Upgrades - The development of new productive forces has accelerated, with high-tech manufacturing value added increasing by 9.2% from January to November, and smart consumer equipment manufacturing growing by 7.6% [4] - Traditional industries are undergoing transformation, with biomass fuel processing value added rising by 15.6%, contributing to the growth of the petroleum processing industry [4] - The digital economy is also on the rise, with the value added of large-scale digital product manufacturing increasing by 9.3% [4] Consumption and Investment Potential - Consumption potential continues to be released, with retail sales of cultural and office supplies and communication equipment growing by 11.7% and 20.6% respectively in November [7] - Online retail sales of physical goods increased by 5.7%, accounting for 25.9% of total retail sales, indicating a shift towards new consumption models [7] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, but project investment excluding real estate development grew by 0.8% [7] - Investment potential remains significant, with ongoing measures to promote investment growth in various sectors, including education, healthcare, and public services [8]

Economic Performance Overview - In November, China's industrial added value above designated size grew by 4.8% year-on-year, while the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 43,898 billion yuan, marking a 1.3% increase year-on-year [1][2] - The overall economic operation in November was stable, continuing a trend of steady progress, supported by strong macro policies and the growth of new economic drivers [1][4] Industrial Production and Supply - Industrial production remained stable, with the equipment manufacturing sector experiencing a significant increase of 7.7% year-on-year, contributing 59.4% to the growth of industrial added value [1][2] - The service sector also showed steady growth, with the service production index increasing by 4.2% year-on-year in November [1] Consumer Market Trends - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 1.3% year-on-year, with notable growth in cosmetics (6.1%) and gold and silver jewelry (8.5%) [2] - The retail sales of services grew by 5.4% year-on-year from January to November, indicating a slight acceleration compared to the previous period [2] New Consumption Patterns - New consumption models such as instant retail and live-streaming e-commerce are rapidly growing, with online retail sales of physical goods increasing by 5.7% year-on-year, accounting for 25.9% of total retail sales [3] - Emerging consumption trends in digital, green, and health sectors are becoming significant drivers of consumer behavior [3] Investment in Emerging Industries - Investment in high-tech manufacturing industries showed robust growth, with a year-on-year increase of 9.2% in added value for high-tech manufacturing from January to November [3] - The production of industrial robots and control systems saw substantial increases of 29.2% and 87.6% year-on-year, respectively [3] Economic Outlook - Despite challenges, the resilience of the economy, strong macro policy support, and the steady growth of new economic drivers provide favorable conditions for achieving annual economic targets [4][5] - International organizations have raised their growth forecasts for China's economy, reflecting confidence in its development [4]

Economic Performance - In November, the industrial production maintained stable growth, with the added value of large-scale industrial enterprises increasing by 4.8% year-on-year, consistent with the previous month [1] - The equipment manufacturing industry, driven by industrial upgrading, saw a significant increase in added value by 7.7%, contributing 59.4% to the overall industrial growth [1] - The service production index grew by 4.2% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in the service sector [1] Market Sales and Trade - Social retail sales increased by 1.3% year-on-year in November, with cosmetics and gold and silver jewelry retail sales growing by 6.1% and 8.5% respectively [1] - The total value of goods imports and exports rose by 4.1% year-on-year, with exports increasing by 5.7%, marking a turnaround from the previous month's decline [1] Employment and Prices - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1%, unchanged from the previous month [2] - Consumer prices rose by 0.7% year-on-year, with the core CPI (excluding food and energy) stable at a 1.2% increase [2] Future Industry Development - High-tech manufacturing added value grew by 9.2% from January to November, with smart consumer equipment manufacturing increasing by 7.6% [2] - The production of industrial robots and control computers surged by 29.2% and 87.6% respectively, indicating strong growth in advanced manufacturing [2][3] Digital Economy and Green Industry - Online retail sales increased by 9.1% year-on-year, reflecting the expansion of digital consumption [3] - The production of new energy vehicles and lithium-ion batteries for vehicles grew by 26.5% and 42.2% respectively, showcasing rapid growth in the green industry [3] International Confidence - Major international organizations have raised their growth forecasts for the Chinese economy, indicating increased international confidence [4] - Despite challenges, the resilience of the Chinese economy and supportive macro policies are expected to help achieve annual growth targets [4]

Core Insights - China's macroeconomic indicators continued to show a slowdown in November, but high-tech manufacturing production and investment growth remained strong, indicating a significant contribution of new momentum to the macro economy [1][2] Industrial Performance - In November, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 4.8% year-on-year, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from October, marking the lowest growth since September 2024 [1] - High-tech manufacturing added value grew by 8.4% year-on-year in November, outperforming the overall industrial growth by 3.6 percentage points, with a cumulative growth of 9.2% from January to November [2] - The production of new energy vehicles and lithium-ion batteries for vehicles saw significant increases of 26.5% and 42.2% respectively from January to November [2] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 43,898 billion yuan in November, growing by 1.3% year-on-year, but down 1.6 percentage points from October, marking six consecutive months of slowdown [4] - Service retail sales grew by 5.4% year-on-year from January to November, indicating a shift in consumer spending towards services [5] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 444,035 billion yuan in the first eleven months, down 2.6% year-on-year, with a notable decline in real estate investment by 15.9% [7] - Manufacturing investment increased by 1.9% year-on-year, while infrastructure investment (excluding certain utilities) decreased by 1.1% [7][8] - Despite the overall decline in investment, certain sectors like general equipment manufacturing saw an 8.9% increase in investment [8] Policy and Future Outlook - The Chinese government is focusing on expanding domestic demand and promoting the transformation of traditional industries to support economic stability [3] - Recent policies aim to enhance consumer spending and investment, with a focus on improving investment efficiency and stimulating private investment [9] - The central economic work conference outlined key tasks for the upcoming year, emphasizing the importance of domestic demand and consumer spending [5][9]

Economic Overview - China's macroeconomic indicators showed a continued slowdown in November, but high-tech manufacturing production and investment growth remained strong, indicating new momentum for the economy [1][2] - The industrial added value for November increased by 4.8% year-on-year, slightly down from October, marking the lowest growth since September 2024 [1][2] - The retail sales of consumer goods grew by 1.3% year-on-year, a significant drop of 1.6 percentage points from October, continuing a six-month trend of slowdown [1][4] High-Tech Manufacturing - In November, the added value of high-tech manufacturing rose by 8.4%, outperforming the overall industrial growth by 3.6 percentage points [2] - From January to November, the cumulative growth of high-tech manufacturing was 9.2%, with smart consumer equipment manufacturing increasing by 7.6% [2] - The development of green and low-carbon industries is advancing, with renewable energy generation increasing by 8.8% year-on-year [2] Consumer Spending - The growth of retail sales of consumer goods has been attributed to a high base from the previous year, but the cumulative growth for the year is better than last year [4][5] - Service consumption is growing rapidly, with service retail sales increasing by 5.4% year-on-year, outpacing goods retail sales [5] - The expansion of consumer spending is linked to rising per capita GDP, ongoing consumption policies, and the emergence of new consumption growth points [5] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year-on-year in the first eleven months, with a notable decline in real estate investment [7] - Infrastructure investment fell by 1.1%, while manufacturing investment saw a modest increase of 1.9% [7][9] - Despite the overall decline in investment, certain sectors, such as general equipment manufacturing, showed positive growth, with an 8.9% increase [9] Policy and Future Outlook - The Central Economic Work Conference outlined key tasks for the upcoming year, emphasizing the importance of domestic demand and consumption [6] - A series of consumption-boosting policies have been introduced, aiming to enhance the supply of quality goods and services [6] - The government is focusing on stabilizing investment through various measures, including increasing central budget investments and optimizing local government bond usage [10]