投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2026-01-08 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 供需过剩主导，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：元旦小长假期间，美国三角洲部队突袭委内瑞拉首都并绑架该国总统马杜罗及其夫人， 地缘风险快速升温。 ...

2、昨天相关部门发布了《固体废物综合治理行动计划》，要加强工业固体废物源头减量，要依法依规淘汰落后产能，关键在于推动重有色金属矿采选一体 化建设，推进尾矿就近充填回填，原则上不再批准建设无自建矿山、无配套尾矿利用处置设施的选矿项目，并且要推动重点行业固体废物产生量与综合消纳 量逐步实现动态平衡。 这消息的重要在于要推动重要有色金属矿采取一体化建设，这实际上是对有色金属矿的落后产能的一次淘汰过程，也势必会对市场的供给带来一定的影响， 如此看对有色金属是利好，并且是中长期利好，在需求比较旺盛，而供给未来相对短缺的情况下，势必会给价格带来向上的动力，如此继续关注有色金属。 大家最关心的可能就是今天市场怎么走，从外围的情况看，上周五的美股大型科技股涨跌互现，呈现的是结构性的状态，这个对A股科技股影响不大。 反而港股走势非常强劲，恒生科技指数单日大涨4%，这是过去5年以来新年第一个交易日涨幅最大的一次，可以说恒生科技指数的这根阳线是过去一段时间 以来最大的一根阳线，虽然说短期面临60日线的压制，然而从走势上看突破的态势非常明显。 大家早上好，今天是2026年开年的第一个交易日，萌生先向大家表示祝福，新的一年财源滚滚！ ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 地缘风险增加，原油震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-12-24 品种晨会纪要 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近期美委局势骤然升级，是本次油价反弹最直接、最强劲的驱动力。美国特朗普政府对 委内瑞拉的施压力度空前加大，不仅下令"全面彻底封锁"进出委内瑞拉的受制裁油轮，还计划扣 押更多委内瑞拉油轮。据估算，美国已 ...

1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货原油早报-2025-12-22 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 地缘风险增加，原油震荡偏强 | 备注： 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近期中东局势再度出现波澜，以色列怀疑伊朗扩张军事力量，可能再度发起攻击，地缘 风险重新增强并盖过原油期货市场供应过剩的不利影响。目前全球原油库存不断累积，原油市场正 处在供应压力不断增大的阶段。由于短 ...

上周，美联储降息并启动购买短期美债，投资者谨慎看待AI行业高估值前景的同时，看好降息对实体经济的提振作用， 资金多日从高估值的科技股流出，流向对利率波动敏感的金融、工业等周期股，板块轮动使得美国三大股指上周走势分 化。从全周来看，道指累计上涨超1%，标普500指数下跌约0.6%，纳指下跌超1.6%。 上周国际金价与银价均上涨 原油期货方面，投资者上周主要聚焦俄乌谈判进展，部分投资者看好俄乌达成和平协议的前景，因而陆续减仓，以应对 俄罗斯石油重返国际市场的可能，国际油价上周显著下跌。从全周来看，纽约原油期货主力合约价格下跌4.39%，布伦 特原油期货主力合约价格下跌4.13%。 本周英国央行与欧洲央行将公布最新利率决议 本周，全球多个发达经济体的央行将陆续公布最新利率决议，其中，英国央行与欧洲央行的货币政策最受关注。 英国方面，由于经济增长的疲软态势比预期更为糟糕，尤其是服务业和建筑业近期都表现不佳，外界普遍预计，英国央 行会在本周宣布降息25个基点来刺激经济，有分析指出这很可能是英国央行本轮宽松货币政策周期中的最后一次降息。 欧元区方面，由于服务业通胀持续高于欧洲央行目标，交易员普遍预计欧洲央行本周将"按兵不 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-11-28 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多情绪回暖，原油震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：由于近期美国公布的 9 月非农就业数据显著差于预期，导致宏观情绪转弱。近期 OPEC 最 新季度报告把三季度全球油市从"供不应求"直接翻转为"日过剩 50 万桶"，供应宽 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The crude oil 2601 contract is expected to run strongly in the short - term, with a short - term view of "oscillation", a medium - term view of "oscillation", and an intraday view of "stronger". The reference view is "stronger operation"[1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Time Cycle and View - Short - term (within one week): The crude oil 2601 contract shows an oscillatory trend[1] - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): It is in an oscillatory state[1] - Intraday: It is expected to be stronger[1] 3.2 Core Logic - The macro sentiment weakened due to the significantly worse - than - expected September non - farm payroll data released by the US last weekend[5] - The latest quarterly report of OPEC changed the global oil market in the third quarter from "supply - demand deficit" to "a daily surplus of 500,000 barrels", amplifying the expectation of loose supply[5] - The weak supply - demand structure of the oil market is gradually competing with geopolitical sentiment. The market's concern that the Russia - Ukraine conflict may reach a ceasefire agreement has led to the retracement of the geopolitical premium in the oil market[5] - The domestic crude oil futures maintained an oscillatory and stronger trend on Wednesday night, with the futures price slightly rising. It is expected to maintain a stronger trend on Thursday[5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-11-21 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 利空因素压制，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：近期 OPEC 最新季度报告把三季度全球油市从"供不应求"直接翻转为"日过剩 50 万桶"， 供应宽松预期放大。不过随着地缘因素凸显以后，在乐观 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil 2601 contract is expected to run strongly, with a short - term outlook of being weak, a medium - term outlook of being volatile, and an intraday outlook of being strong [1][5] - The core logic is that demand expectations drive the crude oil market to be oscillating and strong. Market sentiment has improved, and the market has returned to the supply - demand fundamental - driven situation. Optimistic factors such as the rise in European diesel prices and the increase in winter heating demand expectations have promoted the sharp rise in crude oil futures prices [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Price and Performance - On Tuesday night, domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices rose sharply. The domestic crude oil futures 2601 contract closed up 2.01% to 471.1 yuan/barrel [5] Driving Factors - The US Senate has reached an agreement to end the federal government "shutdown", and market sentiment has improved, boosting investors' risk appetite [5] - As geopolitical emotions are gradually digested, the crude oil futures market has returned to the supply - demand fundamental - driven situation [5] - European diesel prices have risen sharply, and winter heating demand expectations have increased [5] Outlook - It is expected that on Wednesday, the domestic crude oil futures 2601 contract may maintain a strong trend [5]

Group 1: Market Overview - Global technology stocks faced a sell-off due to heightened concerns over an artificial intelligence bubble, leading to significant downward pressure on the U.S. stock market, particularly affecting the Nasdaq index, which recorded its largest weekly decline in six months, dropping over 3% [1] - The three major U.S. stock indices collectively fell last week, with the Dow Jones down 1.21% and the S&P 500 decreasing by 1.63% [1] Group 2: Oil Market - International oil prices declined last week, primarily due to a surge in U.S. crude oil inventories and concerns over weak oil demand, resulting in a cumulative drop of over 2% for the week [4] - West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil fell by 2.02%, while Brent crude oil decreased by 2.21% [4] Group 3: Gold Market - International gold prices saw a slight increase, surpassing the $4000 per ounce mark again, driven by a weak U.S. labor market and uncertainties related to the U.S. government shutdown, with a cumulative increase of 0.33% [6] - The ongoing government shutdown raises questions about the release of key U.S. economic data, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), which are crucial for the Federal Reserve's upcoming monetary policy decisions [8] Group 4: AI Companies Earnings Reports - Several U.S. artificial intelligence companies are set to release their earnings reports this week, including CoreWeave, Cisco, Applied Materials, and Infineon [10] - CoreWeave, a key partner of NVIDIA, has signed a multi-billion dollar cloud infrastructure contract with OpenAI, and the market anticipates continued explosive revenue growth for the company, while also being cautious of its high valuation risks [10]