瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.10」 棉花（纱）市场周报 研究员：王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证Z0021556 关 注 微信客 服 号 「 期现市场情况」 3 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权及股市关联市场 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：本周郑棉主力2601合约价格上涨，周度涨幅约0.83%。 行情展望：近期美棉产区降雨相对较少，利于美棉收割，新棉上市对棉价带来供应 压力。国内市场：供应端，当前棉花商业库存已降至同期低位。新疆产区籽棉收购 价格略有上涨，新疆机采棉收购价格在3.0元/斤附近，手摘棉在3.50元/斤附近，新 棉陆续上市，且新年度丰产明显，供应端压力逐渐上升。需求端，纺织厂订单仍未 见明显好转，开机率仍低于去年同期，下游传统"金九银十"旺季局面未出现。关 注节后补库及上市节奏。 策略建议，操作上，郑棉2601合约短期观望。 未来交易提示： 1、关注外棉价格变化2、需求3、库存情况 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 美棉市场 图1、CFTC美棉净持仓与ICE美棉活跃合约价格走势 图2、CFTC美棉非商业净持仓情况 来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院 来源 ...

莎车县巴格阿瓦提乡团结村的棉花田正在收获。 邓军强摄 徐波（右二）在哈巴河县与小朋友在一起。 杨帅君摄 克拉玛依白碱滩区矿山治理项目区微地形营造分水格。 付 晶摄 数据来源：《新时代党的治疆方略的成功实践》白皮书 王尧在克拉玛依白碱滩区矿山治理项目区，查看梭梭生长 情况。 付 晶摄 精河县城乡一体化水厂里，工作人员在巡检设备。 木黑提摄 帮农民增收谋实招 种地挑上"金扁担" 本报记者 郁静娴 在新疆莎车县阿扎特巴格镇11村，蓬松的棉桃如同云朵落在枝头，再过半个月就可采摘。棉农刘新宁 说："今年种的是新品种，看这吐絮情况，产量估摸着不错。" 作为农业农村部选派的援疆干部，去年4月吴显中来到莎车县工作。他发现，当地农业产业有基础，但 主要农作物品种偏多。"就拿棉花来说，全县有近20个品种，管理相对粗放，棉花卖不上好价钱。"吴显 中说。 咋样能让农民用上好种子？吴显中反复琢磨，多次调研。他细细梳理惠农政策，终于找到突破口。吴显 中和当地干部依托乡村振兴衔接资金，申请开展主导品种示范推广项目。去年先期引进4个优良棉花品 种，对种植户提供40%的良种补贴，供种厂家提供全程技术指导跟踪，农民有了积极性，好种子变成好 收成 ...

新华社乌鲁木齐10月7日电 题：棉田里的"丰"景——从新季棉花采收看产业发展新图景 为了精准施药、高效作业，无人机飞防已成为标配。"有的飞手一年能挣20多万元。"新疆沙湾市一 家农用无人机公司负责人告诉记者，近年来，他们的无人机销售与飞手培训等业务迅速发展壮大，2024 年公司销售无人机240台，单一设备营业额突破1700万元。 不仅产量提升，近年来我国棉花生产布局持续优化，新疆棉区种植面积稳步扩大，机械化、智能化 水平显著提升。 随着棉花产量逐年增长，机械化采收已成为保障效率与效益的重要环节。"几年前，采棉还是个让 人头疼的活儿。全靠一双手，一人一天最多摘几十公斤，请人的话又得增加不少成本。"对比今昔，罗 钧很是感慨。如今，一台采棉机一天能收几百亩。 据新疆农业部门数据，今年新疆将投入7500余台采棉机，其中跨区作业机械超3100台，预计棉花耕 种收机械化率将保持在97%以上，机采率继续保持在90%以上。 产业高效发展，让罗钧这样的种植户信心更足。最近几年，他与合伙人陆续购置了5台搭载自动导 航的大型采棉机。"机械采收让我们抢农时心里更有底了。"他说。 其实，棉花产业的智能化发展并不止于采收。在棉花种植管理 ...

新疆乌苏：采收棉花【5】 新疆乌苏：采收棉花 新疆乌苏：采收棉花【2】 新疆乌苏：采收棉花【3】 新疆乌苏：采收棉花【4】 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the unique charm and cultural significance of Xinjiang, particularly through the lens of miniature photography, which connects daily life with imagination [2][3] - Xinjiang is recognized as a major cotton-producing region in China, with a long history of cotton cultivation supported by favorable climatic conditions [6] - The cotton industry in Xinjiang has experienced rapid development due to modern agricultural technologies, achieving mechanization from planting to harvesting, contributing to local farmers' income and the region's high-quality development [7] Group 2 - Xinjiang is also known as the "hometown of lavender" in China, with suitable climatic conditions for lavender cultivation, which has become a new highlight for cultural tourism [11][12] - Lavender not only beautifies rural areas and enriches local residents but also plays a role in the rural revitalization of Xinjiang [12] - The production of Adras silk, recognized as a "living fossil of the Silk Road," involves traditional hand-dyeing and weaving techniques, which have been listed as a national intangible cultural heritage since 2008 [14] - Adras silk has gained new life by combining traditional craftsmanship with modern fashion design, showcasing the cultural heritage and development of the region [15]

Report Title and Period - The report is titled "Cotton Strategy Quarterly Report: Q4 2025" [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The price of cotton is expected to decline first and then rise. In the international market, the fundamentals provide some support, but the driving force is limited, and macro - level factors may cause market sentiment to fluctuate. In the domestic market, there is short - term supply pressure during the cotton concentration listing period, but there are also positive factors, and the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures is expected to show a trend of first decline and then rise in the fourth quarter [11][12] Summary by Directory Supply - Globally in the 2025/26 season, cotton production is expected to be 25.622 million tons, a 1.3% year - on - year decrease. US cotton production is expected to be 2.879 million tons, a decrease of 259,000 tons or 8.2% year - on - year. China's cotton production is expected to be 7.076 million tons, but the domestic general expectation is between 7.2 - 7.5 million tons [6] - Affected by drought, the proportion of US cotton - growing areas is still high, and the excellent - good rate of US cotton is gradually decreasing. High - level drought - affected areas are increasing rapidly, and attention should be paid to subsequent weather disturbances [43][46] Demand - Globally in the 2025/26 season, cotton consumption is expected to be 25.873 million tons, a 0.3% year - on - year decrease [7] - In August, the monthly retail value of US clothing and clothing accessories was $27.183 billion, a 1% month - on - month increase and an 8.3% year - on - year increase [7][64] - In August, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textile products in China were 104.51 billion yuan, a 3.1% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative retail sales from January to August were 940.04 billion yuan, a 2.9% year - on - year increase [7][70] - As of the week of September 19, the comprehensive load of yarn was 50.06%, a 0.18 - percentage - point week - on - week increase; the load of pure - cotton yarn mills was 47.6%, a 0.1 - percentage - point week - on - week increase [7][72] - As of the week of September 19, the comprehensive load of staple - fiber cloth was 52.73%, a 2.31 - percentage - point week - on - week increase; the load of pure - cotton grey cloth was 50.42%, a 3.12 - percentage - point week - on - week increase [7][77] Import and Export - In August, China imported 70,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to August decreased by 1.56 million tons year - on - year; imported 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to August decreased by 100,000 tons year - on - year [8] - In August, the monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was $14.146 billion, a 10.08% year - on - year decrease; the cumulative export from January to August was $10.2761 billion, a 1.7% year - on - year decrease [8][84] - In August, the monthly export value of Chinese textile yarns, fabrics, and related products was $12.393 billion, a 1.43% year - on - year increase; the cumulative export from January to August was $94.513 billion, a 1.6% year - on - year increase [8][81] Inventory - As of mid - September, China's commercial cotton inventory was 1.1759 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 700,000 tons; the industrial inventory was 862,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 45,000 tons [9] - As of the week of September 19, the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 26.32 days, a 0.38 - day week - on - week decrease; the comprehensive inventory of staple - fiber cloth was 29.28 days, a 0.94 - day week - on - week decrease [9][94] - As of the week of September 19, the cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 28.7 days, a 0.65 - day week - on - week decrease; the cotton yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 27.22 days, a 0.48 - day week - on - week decrease [9][96] - As of the week of September 19, the cotton yarn inventory of weaving factories was 7.78 days, a 0.26 - day week - on - week increase; the inventory of pure - cotton grey cloth was 31.18 days, a 1.4 - day week - on - week decrease [9][98] - The speed of cotton warehouse receipt liquidation has increased. As of September 25, 2025, the total number of cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 3,595, a decrease of 3,127 compared to August 28 [106] Option - The historical volatility of cotton is gradually decreasing, and the historical volatility cone is at a moderately low level [107]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton outlook: The current spot market is tight, but as new cotton is about to be listed, market tension will ease. Despite the USDA's report raising global consumption, macro - economic data shows no significant improvement. With global production increasing, supply - demand is balanced. New cotton will flood the market in October, bringing significant pressure and potential price fluctuations [69]. - Yarn outlook: The yarn market follows cotton prices. Due to intense industry competition and declining exports, future pressure is expected to be high [69]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 9 - month Market Review - In September, Zhengzhou cotton and yarn prices fluctuated weakly. The approaching new cotton listing and less - than - expected "Golden September and Silver October" conditions led to market pressure. The spot market was tight, but the market was trading on future expectations. Yarn followed cotton, with over - capacity compressing spinning profits, and more pressure expected with further expansion in Xinjiang [5][8]. 3.2 Supply - side Analysis - **Global Supply - Demand Balance**: In the 2025/26 season, global cotton production is expected to be 2562.2 million tons (up 23 million tons, 0.9% month - on - month), consumption 2587.2 million tons (up 18.4 million tons, 0.7% month - on - month), imports 951.6 million tons (up 2.7 million tons, 0.3% month - on - month), exports 951.5 million tons (up 2.5 million tons, 0.3% month - on - month), and ending stocks 1592.5 million tons (down 16.8 million tons, 1.0% month - on - month). In 2024/25, production and consumption are expected to increase, with ending stocks decreasing [14]. - **US Cotton**: In September 2025, the US cotton planting and harvest areas decreased, and the national abandonment rate increased month - on - month. The signing and export of US upland cotton were slow. As of September 18, 2025, the US had a cumulative net signed export of 94.7 million tons of 2025/26 cotton, reaching 36.22% of the expected annual export, with a shipment rate of 23.23% [15][20]. - **Indian Cotton**: In the 2024/25 season, India's cotton production is expected to be 531.1 million tons (up 1.7 million tons, 0.3% month - on - month), imports 69.7 million tons (up 3.4 million tons, 5.1% month - on - month). Consumption and exports are stable. Ending stocks increased by 5.1 million tons to 103 million tons (up 5.2% month - on - month) [22]. - **Brazilian Cotton**: In the 2024/25 season, Brazil's cotton planting area is expected to increase to 2.086 million hectares (about 31.29 million mu), a 7.3% year - on - year increase. The national yield per mu is expected to decrease to 125.8 kg/mu, a 0.9% year - on - year decrease. Total production is expected to reach 3.935 million tons, a 6.3% year - on - year increase. In 2024/25, Brazil exported 2.835 million tons of cotton, a 5.8% year - on - year increase, earning about $4.85 billion [25]. - **Domestic Cotton**: In the 2025/26 season, China's total supply increased by 41 million tons to 14.95 million tons. Total demand increased by 12 million tons to 8.42 million tons. Ending stocks increased by 29 million tons to 6.53 million tons. As of the end of August, commercial and industrial cotton inventories decreased significantly. In August, cotton and yarn imports showed different trends [27][31][36]. 3.3 Demand - side Analysis - **Domestic Demand**: In August 2025, China's social consumer goods retail sales reached 396.68 billion yuan, a 3.4% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the total was 3.23906 trillion yuan, a 4.6% year - on - year increase. Clothing, footwear, and textile retail sales in August were 104.5 billion yuan, a 3.1% year - on - year increase [43]. - **External Demand**: In July 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were $26.766 billion, a 0.06% year - on - year decrease. From January to July, exports were $170.741 billion, a 0.63% year - on - year increase [46]. - **Textile Industry Inventory**: In July, the textile industry's inventory was 402.01 billion yuan, a 0.12% month - on - month increase. Textile and clothing inventory was 189.91 billion yuan, a 1.03% month - on - month increase [48]. - **US Retail and Inventory**: In July 2025, US clothing and apparel retail sales were $26.908 billion, a 6.44% year - on - year increase. In June, retailer inventory was $58.349 billion, a 1.37% year - on - year increase, and the inventory - to - sales ratio was 2.20 [56]. - **Industrial Chain Operation**: The spot market for pure - cotton yarn had average trading, with prices following Zhengzhou cotton down. Spinning mills continued to reduce inventory slightly, and the operating rate was stable. The all - cotton grey fabric weaving factories mainly had small - batch orders, with limited growth, and the operating rate changed little [60].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract decreased this week with a weekly decline of about 2.30%. It is recommended to take a short - term bearish approach towards the Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract [8][9]. - According to the USDA report, from September 12 - 18, 2025, the export signing volume of US upland cotton decreased while the shipment volume increased. Domestically, there is a strong expectation of cotton production increase in northern Xinjiang. The purchase price of seed cotton has declined, and downstream spinning mills are less enthusiastic about restocking. The orders of terminal clothing and manufacturing enterprises have not improved significantly, and the cotton yarn inventory is accumulating, so the cotton price is expected to remain weak [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Strategy Suggestion**: Adopt a short - term bearish strategy for Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract [8]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to the change of foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [9]. - **Market Review**: The price of Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract decreased by about 2.30% this week [9]. - **Market Outlook**: US cotton export signing volume decreased and shipment volume increased. In China, there is a strong production increase expectation in northern Xinjiang, the purchase price of seed cotton declined, downstream demand is weak, and the cotton price is expected to be weak [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the US cotton December contract decreased by about 0.32% this week. As of September 16, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton futures decreased by 53 hands, the non - commercial short positions decreased by 8738 hands, and the net short positions decreased by 8685 hands [14]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: As of September 18, the net increase in US cotton export sales was 86,100 bales. The international cotton spot price was 78.15 cents per pound, down 0.95 cents per pound from last week [18]. - **Futures Market**: The price of Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract decreased by about 2.30%, and the price of cotton yarn futures 2511 contract decreased by about 0.63%. As of this week, the net positions of the top 20 in cotton futures were - 21,472 hands, and in cotton yarn futures were - 120 hands. The number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange cotton futures warehouse receipts was 3397, and that of cotton yarn futures was 0 [23][29][35]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 26, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,043 yuan per ton, and the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,615 yuan per ton [42][53]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of September 25, the imported cotton price with sliding - scale duty was 14,181 yuan per ton, down 124 yuan per ton from last week; the imported cotton quota price was 13,336 yuan per ton, down 191 yuan per ton from last week. The imported cotton yarn price index for different specifications was also provided [58]. - **Imported Cotton Price Cost - Profit**: As of September 25, the estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - scale duty was 881 yuan per ton, down 124 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 1726 yuan per ton, down 57 yuan per ton from last week [61]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side - Commercial Cotton Inventory**: As of the end of August, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1481,700 tons, a decrease of 708,100 tons or 32.34% from the previous month. The industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 892,000 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from the previous month [64]. - **Supply Side - Imported Cotton Volume**: In August 2025, China's cotton import volume was about 70,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 tons or 51.6%. The imported cotton yarn volume was 130,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons [70]. - **Mid - end Industry - Demand Side - Yarn and Grey Cloth Inventory**: As of the end of August, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 26.6 days, a decrease of 1.1 days from the previous month, and the grey cloth inventory was 33.9 days, a decrease of 2.3 days from the previous month [73]. - **Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Textile and Garment Export Volume**: In August 2025, China's textile and garment export volume was 26.54 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 5% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. Among them, textile exports were 12.39 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 1.5% and a month - on - month increase of 6.8%, and garment exports were 14.15 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 10.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 6.7% [78]. - **Downstream Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Domestic Garment Retail Sales**: As of August 31, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of domestic garments were 670.83 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 11.95%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase was 2.2% [82]. 3.4 Options and Stock Market - Related Market - **Options Market**: Information about the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money options this week is presented, but no specific data is given [83]. - **Stock Market - Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd.**: A chart of the price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. is provided, but no specific analysis is given [87].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, with new cotton coming onto the market, the Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to show a weak and volatile trend due to high cotton production in Xinjiang, low purchasing enthusiasm from ginneries, and general downstream demand [7][8][51]. - Globally, the cotton production and demand in the 2025/26 season have both increased, and the ending stocks have decreased slightly, presenting a relatively neutral outlook [13][51]. - For US cotton, the production is relatively stable, but the signing progress is poor, and the price is expected to fluctuate [16][51]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In September, the cotton futures prices were weak. The supply side saw a significant increase in cotton production compared to previous years, with a general purchase expectation of 6 - 6.4 yuan/kg, exerting hedging pressure on the market. The downstream demand was average, and the peak season was expected to remain at the current level. The fundamentals of US cotton changed little, and it was expected to fluctuate [6][12]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - In October, with new cotton coming onto the market, there will be selling hedging pressure on the market. The peak season demand is expected to be average, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a weak and volatile trend [7]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - For single - side trading, the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be weak and volatile. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [8]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - Similar to the preface summary, in September, the cotton futures prices were weak. The supply side had high production, and the demand side was average. The US cotton fundamentals changed little and were expected to fluctuate [12]. 3.2.2 International Market - In the 2025/26 season, the global cotton production increased by 230,000 tons to 25.622 million tons compared to the previous month, with China increasing by 220,000 tons and India by 110,000 tons. The demand also increased, and the ending stocks decreased slightly [13][14]. 3.2.3 United States - The new US cotton has a good quality rate, but the signing progress is at a low level in the same period over the years. The 2025/26 production is expected to be 2.87 million tons, an increase of 300,000 tons compared to the previous year. As of September 14, the cumulative signing volume was 901,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.61%, and the cumulative shipment volume was 104,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 84.96%. China's cumulative signing volume was 104,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 84.96%, and the cumulative shipment was 0 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 100%. The drought situation has improved [16]. 3.2.4 Other Countries - In India, the cotton planting area in the 2025/26 season decreased by 312,000 hectares compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. The rainfall in the main cotton - producing areas was higher than normal. In Brazil, as of September 13, the cotton harvesting progress was 96.6%, and the processing progress was 36%. The new flower exports declined in the short term, and the quality indicators such as micronaire value and strength declined compared to last year [21][23]. 3.2.5 Domestic Market - Supply side: As of mid - September, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.1759 million tons, a decrease of 30,580 tons from the previous month. In August 2025, 72,700 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 77,000 tons. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import was 585,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 72.7%. The domestic - foreign price difference was around 1,400 yuan/ton. - Demand side: The peak season demand was average, and the boost to the market was limited. As of mid - September, the cotton industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 862,100 tons, a decrease of 30,200 tons from the previous month. The yarn inventory was 25.43 days, and the grey cloth inventory was 31.56 days. In August, domestic demand was average, and the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles were 104.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. The textile and clothing exports were average. From January to August 2025, the cumulative textile and clothing exports were 197.274 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.25%. - New crop: The national cotton planting area in 2025 was adjusted up by 2.71 million mu to 47.306 million mu, and the total output was adjusted up to 7.415 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. The market focus has shifted to the new cotton purchase price, and the purchase price is around 6 - 6.3 yuan/kg [26][28][29]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - International: The global cotton production and demand have increased, but are still at a medium level over the years, and the ending stocks have decreased. The US cotton production is relatively stable, but the demand is not optimistic, and the price is expected to fluctuate [51]. - Domestic: In October, with new cotton coming onto the market, there will be selling hedging pressure on the market. The peak season demand is average, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a weak and volatile trend [51]. - Strategy: For single - side trading, the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be weak and volatile. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the successful agricultural collaboration between China and Tajikistan, particularly in the cotton industry, showcasing the transformation of local cotton production through Chinese technology and investment [1][2]. Group 1: Agricultural Development - The cotton yield in Tajikistan has significantly increased from approximately 100 kilograms per acre to over 400 kilograms due to the implementation of Chinese agricultural techniques [2]. - The establishment of the Dangara Agricultural Textile Industrial Park has created a full industrial chain from cotton planting to high-value product export, enhancing local employment and income [1][2]. Group 2: Local Impact - The local community has benefited from the industrial park, with residents expressing pride in their work and improved living standards, as well as the opportunity for professional training [2][3]. - Young locals, such as Kayumov, have found promising career prospects within the industrial park, reducing the need to migrate for work [2]. Group 3: Workforce Development - The workforce in the industrial park includes a significant proportion of women, who have transitioned from traditional roles to skilled positions in textile production [2][3]. - Workers like Daflatova and Kosimov have experienced personal and professional growth, acquiring new skills and achieving their career aspirations through training provided by Chinese experts [3].