成橡胶期货日报 成文日期: 20250930 报告周期: 日报 研究品种:合成橡厂 研究员：何宁 （从业资格号:F0238922;投资咨询从业证书号:Z0001219) 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 当日（20250930）合成橡胶期货震荡下跌。其中合成橡胶 2511 (BR2511) 开盘价 11325 元/吨, 最高价 11335 元/吨, 最低价 11100 元/吨,收盘价 11100 元/吨,较上一个交易日结算价下跌 185 元/吨, 跌幅 1.64%，成交量 11 万手，较上日减少 4.78 万手，持仓量 3.32 万手,较上目减少 5336 手。 图 1：合成橡胶 2511（BR2511）分时图 1.2 品种价格 表 1：合成橡胶期货日行情表 20250930 | 合约名称 | 开盘 最高 【 最低 最新 涨跌 涨幅% 成交量 持仓量 | | --- | --- | | BR橡胶2510 == | 11375 11375 | | BR橡胶2511ª 11325 11335 11100 11100 -185 -1.64% 110443 33214 | | | BR橡胶2512 | | | BR橡胶 ...

示 合成橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/10/10 | | | 指标 | 9/9 | 9/24 | 9/26 | 9/29 | 9/30 | 日度变化 | 周度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 主力合约收盘价 | 11690 | 11520 | 11430 | 11340 | 11100 | -240 | -420 | | | | 主力合约持仓量 | 26850 | 58650 | 40091 | 38520 | 33214 | -5336 | -25436 | | | 语语 | 主力合约成交量 | 118120 | 113405 | 191754 | 158160 | 110443 | -47717 | -2962 | | | | 仓単数量 | 13640 | 9150 | 9250 | 7600 | 7700 | 100 | -1450 | | | | 虚实比 | 9.84 | 32.05 | 21.67 | 25.36 | 21.57 | -4 | -10 | | | | 顺丁基差 | ...

乖 2020 - -2021 -- 2022 -- 2023 -- 202 - 2025 -2020 -- 2021 -- 2022 -- 2023 -- 2024 -- 2025 =2020 -- 2022 -- 2022 -- 2024 -- 2024 -- 2025 丁二烯CFR中国 丁 二烯碳四抽提法利润 丁二烯丁烯氧化脱氢法利润 1800 8000 8000 1600 6000 6000 1400 4000 1200 4000 2000 1000 2000 800 >5/1 > 6/1 /1 HANN/1 8/1 -9/1 600 -2000 0 400 -4000 9/1 10/1 200 -2000 -6000 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 -4000 -8000 2020 -- 2021 -- 2022 -- 2023 -2025 -2020 -- 2021 -- 2022 -- 2023 -- 2023 -- -2024 - -2025 -2020 - -2021 -- 2022 -- 2023 -- 2024 -- 2025 丁二烯进 ...

新疆克拉玛依市城南社区活动室内，20多个不同民族的孩子们正围着"小老师"们学画石榴。青岛科技大 学校长陈克正在观摩后拿起一幅画作，对"小老师"们说："看，这就是'橡胶品格'中的'同心协力'。你们 正在把一颗颗民族团结的种子，像石榴籽那样紧紧抱在一起。" 这群"小老师"，就是来自青岛科技大学"践行'橡胶品格' 石榴花开丝路"实践团的志愿者，他们跨越3622 公里，为孩子们带来了一堂生动活泼的普通话推广课。 社会实践不是"说走就走的旅行"。"我们要打造的是全程贯通、全员参与、全域覆盖的实践育人体 系。"该校团委书记刘跃宁表示。 今年年初，该校团委就开始谋划布局社会实践工作，聚焦赋能学生成长和服务社会发展的育人目标，围 绕"橡胶品格"的深刻内涵，细分出"理论宣讲、红色教育、文化传承、乡村振兴、基层服务"等五大实践 主板块。 今年暑期，从东海之滨到西部村小，从智能工厂到田间地头，一场以"青春为中国式现代化挺膺担当"为 主题，由青岛科技大学团委全域布局的社会实践全面铺开。其核心主线，正是将这所大学独有的精神基 因，以"吃苦耐劳、坚韧不拔，朴实无华、甘于奉献，同心协力、勇承重载"为核心内涵的"橡胶品格"， 通过构建实践育 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views Glass and Soda Ash - The overall supply - demand pattern of soda ash is still bearish, and a short - selling strategy during rebounds is recommended. For glass, the industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem. In the fourth quarter, the implementation of policies and the load regulation of soda ash plants should be tracked [1]. Logs - The log market is in a volatile pattern. With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" season, the improvement of shipment volume should be observed. Currently, the market lacks a strong upward driving force, and it is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term [3]. Industrial Silicon - From September to October, the supply of industrial silicon is increasing, and the balance is shifting to a more relaxed state. In the short term, the upward driving force is insufficient, and the price may fluctuate between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm of silicon material enterprises and Sichuan - Yunnan industrial silicon enterprises in the fourth quarter [4]. Polysilicon - The supply - side regulation effect of polysilicon is not as expected, and the over - capacity pattern remains unchanged. Before the National Day holiday, the price is expected to fluctuate within a range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton. Policies on capacity clearance and industry storage, as well as the actual operation rate and production reduction implementation of polysilicon enterprises, should be followed [5]. Natural Rubber - Before the holiday, the natural rubber market has no obvious long - short contradictions, and the trading atmosphere is cautious. The price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with the 01 contract ranging from 15,000 - 16,500 yuan/ton. The raw material output in the peak - production period of the main producing areas and the possible impact of La Nina should be monitored [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Prices and Spreads - Glass prices in different regions remained unchanged, while glass futures contracts 2505 and 2509 declined. Soda ash prices in different regions were stable, and the soda ash 2509 contract decreased slightly. The basis of some contracts increased [1]. Supply - Soda ash production rate and weekly output decreased. Photovoltaic daily melting volume and the price of 3.2mm coated film remained unchanged [1]. Inventory - Glass inventory decreased slightly, soda ash factory inventory decreased, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased. The number of days of soda ash inventory in glass factories remained unchanged [1]. Market Situation - The over - supply problem still exists. Although the factory inventory has decreased, the inventory has actually transferred to the middle and lower reaches. The weekly production remains high, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. For glass, the deep - processing orders are still weak [1]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Some log futures contracts fluctuated slightly, and the prices of some spot logs increased. The basis of some contracts increased [3]. Supply - The monthly port shipment volume and the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased. The inventory in major ports decreased [3]. Demand - The average daily shipment volume increased [3]. Market Situation - The log market is in a volatile state, with low trading volume. The short - term upward driving force is lacking [3]. Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis - The prices of some industrial silicon products decreased slightly, and the basis of some products increased [4]. Monthly Spreads - Some monthly spreads of industrial silicon contracts changed significantly [4]. Fundamental Data - The production of industrial silicon, organic silicon DMC, and polysilicon increased, while the production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased. The export volume of industrial silicon increased [4]. Inventory - The inventory in Xinjiang decreased, while the inventory in Yunnan and Sichuan increased slightly. The social inventory remained unchanged [4]. Market Situation - The supply of industrial silicon is increasing, and the balance is becoming more relaxed. The price may fluctuate in a certain range in the short term [4]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average prices of N - type polysilicon products were mostly stable, and the basis of N - type materials increased [5]. Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads - The main futures contract of polysilicon decreased, and some monthly spreads changed significantly [5]. Fundamental Data - The weekly and monthly production of polysilicon increased. The import and export volumes of polysilicon and silicon wafers changed [5]. Inventory - The polysilicon inventory increased, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased [5]. Market Situation - The over - capacity problem of polysilicon persists, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range before the holiday [5]. Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - The prices of some natural rubber products decreased, and the basis and non - standard price difference changed [6]. Monthly Spreads - Some monthly spreads of natural rubber contracts changed significantly [6]. Fundamental Data - The production of natural rubber in some countries in July changed. The tire production in August increased, while the tire export decreased. The import of natural rubber increased [6]. Inventory - The bonded area inventory and factory futures inventory of natural rubber decreased [6]. Market Situation - Before the holiday, the natural rubber market is in a volatile state. The supply may increase due to reduced rainfall in Southeast Asia, and the demand faces export and domestic sales pressure [6].

1. Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Date: September 30, 2025 [2] 2. Core Data Summary 2.1 BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Price and Volume Metrics**: On September 29, the closing price of the main contract was 11,340, down 90 from the previous day and 165 from the previous week; the position of the main contract was 38,220, down 1,541 from the previous day and 31,756 from the previous week; the trading volume was 158,160, down 33,594 from the previous day [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Ratios**: The number of warehouse receipts was 7,600, down 1,650 from the previous day and 1,590 from the previous week; the virtual - real ratio was 25.36, up 4 from the previous day and down 13 from the previous week [3]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of butadiene rubber was 160, down 110 from the previous day and 35 from the previous week; the 10 - 11 month spread was 35, unchanged from the previous day and down 30 from the previous week; the 11 - 12 month spread was 5, down 15 from the previous day and 15 from the previous week [3]. - **Market Prices**: The Shandong market price was 11,450, down 100 from the previous day and 100 from the previous week; the Transfar market price was 11,350, down 100 from the previous day and 100 from the previous week; the Qilu ex - factory price was 11,500, down 200 from the previous day and 200 from the previous week [3]. - **Processing and Trade Profits**: The spot processing profit was - 32, down 49 from the previous day and up 206 from the previous week; the on - screen processing profit was - 142, down 39 from the previous day and up 141 from the previous week; the import profit was - 81,760, up 1,526 from the previous day and 1,247 from the previous week; the export profit was 90, up 86 from the previous day and down 62 from the previous week [3]. 2.2 BD (Butadiene) - **Market Prices**: The Shandong market price was 9,100, down 50 from the previous day and 300 from the previous week; the Jiangsu market price was 8,950, down 20 from the previous day and 250 from the previous week; the Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,000, down 150 from the previous day and 150 from the previous week; the CFR China price was 1,060, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [3]. - **Processing and Trade Profits**: The carbon four extraction profit was N/A; the butylene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 206, up 20 from the previous day and 10 from the previous week; the import profit was 304, down 49 from the previous day and 274 from the previous week; the export profit was - 874, up 43 from the previous day and down 12 from the previous week [3]. 2.3 Downstream Products - **Production Profits**: The production profit of styrene - butadiene rubber was 875, down 188 from the previous day and 188 from the previous week; the production profit of ABS was N/A; the production profit of SBS (791 - H) was 1,090, up 105 from the previous day and 105 from the previous week [3]. 2.4 Price Spreads - **Inter - product Spreads**: The RU - BR spread was - 23,175, up 1,446 from the previous day and 31,516 from the previous week; the NR - BR spread was - 26,120, up 1,536 from the previous day and 31,761 from the previous week; the Thai mixed - butadiene rubber spread was 3,350, up 50 from the previous day and 50 from the previous week; the 3L - styrene - butadiene rubber spread was 3,200, unchanged from the previous day and up 100 from the previous week; the butadiene rubber standard - non - standard spread was 250, unchanged from the previous day and up 100 from the previous week [3]. - **Intra - product Spreads**: The styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,000, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: Domestic rubber production areas have been affected by rainfall and tropical cyclones, especially Hainan. Overseas rainfall is relatively normal, and production will increase in the fourth - quarter peak season. There is a high probability of a La Nina event in 2025, and the zero - tariff scope for imported rubber continues to expand. Rubber supply in China is expected to recover in the fourth quarter without extreme weather [100]. - Demand side: The demand for all - steel tires is better than that of semi - steel tires. Overseas trade barriers for domestic tires are rising, increasing export pressure. The "Automobile Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" was introduced, but the automobile sales in the fourth quarter still face challenges [100]. - Price: Due to uncertain weather, tariff barriers, and the test of domestic demand, rubber prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the fourth quarter, with support at around 14,500 yuan/ton and a mid - term fluctuation range of 14,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [100]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price: Narrow - range Fluctuation in the Futures Market No detailed content provided in this regard. 3.2 Supply: Double La Nina Events, Increased Weather Uncertainty - **Domestic Weather Impact**: This year, there have been more tropical cyclones affecting Hainan, and the precipitation in domestic production areas has been affected. It is predicted that there will be 10 - 12 typhoons in the northwest Pacific and South China Sea in the autumn of 2025, with 3 - 4 landing in China [10][13]. - **Global Output**: In July 2025, the global natural rubber output was expected to decrease slightly by 0.1% to 1.328 million tons, but increased by 7.9% compared with the previous month. The full - year output in 2025 is expected to increase by 0.5% to 14.892 million tons [19][24]. - **La Nina Probability**: The probability of a La Nina event from October to December 2025 is 71%. A double La Nina event may occur in 2025, which may make Southeast Asia wetter and southern China drier in winter [30]. - **Tariff Policy**: Since December 1, 2024, zero - tariff policies have been implemented for rubber from Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, etc. Thailand plans to export rubber through the Mekong River channel with zero - tariff. African rubber imports to China are expected to increase in the fourth quarter [33][36]. - **Overseas Exports**: The total exports of major overseas producers increased year - on - year. For example, Thailand's exports in the first 8 months increased by 6.3% year - on - year, and Indonesia's increased by 10% year - on - year [37]. - **EUDR Delay**: The implementation of the EU Forest Law Enforcement, Governance and Trade (EUDR) has been postponed for one year due to IT and supply - chain issues [38]. - **Other Supply Factors**: The demand for natural rubber in Europe, America, Japan, and South Korea is limited. China's imports of natural and mixed rubber increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The net import of butadiene rubber turned into net export [39][41][51]. 3.3 Demand: Supported by Steady Growth - **Automobile Industry Policy**: The "Automobile Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" aims to achieve about 32.3 million automobile sales in 2025, with new - energy vehicle sales of about 15.5 million, and an increase of about 3% year - on - year [57]. - **Tire Market**: The growth momentum of semi - steel tire demand is restricted. Overseas anti - dumping investigations and tariff policies have affected tire exports. However, the production and sales of automobiles and heavy - duty trucks in China from January to August increased year - on - year [58][60][61]. 3.4 Inventory: Inflection Point in Natural Rubber Inventory Accumulation - **Natural Rubber Inventory**: As of September 24, 2025, the natural rubber warehouse receipts were 155,830 tons, and the 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 44,856 tons. The social inventory of natural rubber in China was 123,500 tons as of September 14, 2025 [70][74]. - **Butadiene Rubber Inventory**: As of September 24, 2025, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,300 tons [78]. 3.5 Position: Low Position As of September 24, 2025, the total position of natural rubber was 183,283 lots, a decrease of 26,214 lots compared with June 30; the total position of 20 - rubber was 119,808 lots, a decrease of 627 lots; the total position of BR was 102,425 lots, an increase of 47,106 lots [82].

Report Overview - The report is titled "Synthetic Rubber Morning Report" and is from the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center, dated September 29, 2025 [2] Key Data Summary 1. BR Main Contract - Closing price: 11,445 on September 19, decreased by 115 from September 26 and 15 from the previous week [3] - Open interest: 75,259 on September 19, decreased by 11,063 from September 26 and 35,168 from the previous week [3] - Trading volume: 94,561 on September 19, increased by 108,069 from September 26 and 97,193 from the previous week [3] - Warehouse receipts: 10,230 on September 19, unchanged from September 26 and decreased by 980 from the previous week [3] - Reality-to-virtual ratio: 36.78 on September 19, decreased by 6 from September 26 and 15 from the previous week [3] 2. Basis and Spread - Butadiene basis: 690 on September 19, decreased by 35 from September 26 and 85 from the previous week [3] - 10 - 11 month spread: 70 on September 19, increased by 20 from September 26 and decreased by 35 from the previous week [3] - 11 - 12 month spread: 5 on September 19, increased by 10 from September 26 [3] 3. Market Prices - Shandong market price: 11,600 on September 19, decreased by 30 from September 26 and 50 from the previous week [3] - Chuanhua market price: 11,450 on September 19, decreased by 50 from September 26 [3] - Qilu ex - factory price: 11,700 on September 19, unchanged from September 26 and the previous week [3] - CFR Northeast Asia: 1,525 on September 19, unchanged from September 26 and decreased by 25 from the previous week [3] - CFR Southeast Asia: 1,700 on September 19, unchanged from September 26 and the previous week [3] 4. Processing and Profit - Spot processing profit: - 290 on September 19, increased by 138 from September 26 and 307 from the previous week [3] - Futures processing profit: - 445 on September 19, increased by 53 from September 26 and 342 from the previous week [3] - Import profit: - 82,977 on September 19, decreased by 49 from September 26 and 309 from the previous week [3] - Export profit: 111 on September 19, increased by 29 from September 26 and decreased by 106 from the previous week [3] 5. Downstream and Inter - variety Spreads - Butadiene styrene production profit: 963 on September 19, unchanged from September 26 and increased by 100 from the previous week [3] - ABS production profit: 106 on September 19 [3] - SBS production profit (791 - H): 885 on September 19 [3] - RU - BR spread: - 59,724 on September 19, increased by 10,963 from September 26 and 35,103 from the previous week [3] - NR - BR spread: - 62,959 on September 19, increased by 11,068 from September 26 and 35,303 from the previous week [3] - Thai mixed - cis - butadiene spread: 3,130 on September 19, increased by 30 from September 26 and 170 from the previous week [3] - 3L - butadiene styrene spread: 3,050 on September 19, increased by 100 from September 26 and 150 from the previous week [3] - Cis - butadiene standard - non - standard spread: 200 on September 19, increased by 70 from September 26 and 50 from the previous week [3] - Butadiene styrene 1502 - 1712 spread: 1,000 on September 19, unchanged from September 26 and the previous week [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rubber market in Q3 2025 showed a sideways oscillation with no obvious unilateral trend. In Q4, the market will likely oscillate within a range, with supply pressure more prominent in the early stage and potential for rebounds due to weather and policies in the later stage [6][53]. - The supply of natural rubber is expected to increase in Q4, but weather disturbances and the pace of increased tapping will support prices from the bottom. The cost of synthetic rubber remains under pressure, and the supply situation will not change significantly in the short term [8][28]. - The demand for rubber from the tire industry is affected by factors such as the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" not meeting expectations, EU anti - dumping investigations, and US tariff policies. However, domestic new energy vehicle policies provide some support [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Since Q3, the three major rubber futures markets have been in a sideways oscillation. Rain and typhoons in July - August supported rubber prices by hindering tapping, but in September, with the seasonal peak production season and the "zero - tariff rubber import" pilot project, concerns about increased supply grew. The "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" demand was below expectations, and EU anti - dumping investigations and US tariff policies affected exports, while domestic new energy vehicle policies supported demand [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation Natural Rubber - **Raw Material Prices**: As of September 26, raw material prices in Thailand, Yunnan, and Hainan were lower than the same period last year. Prices have been relatively stable in Q3, and are expected to remain stable in Q4, providing cost support [8]. - **Supply Growth**: The global supply growth of natural rubber is slowing down. In 2025, the global output is expected to increase by only 0.5%. China's output has increased significantly, while Indonesia and Vietnam's output is expected to decline. Weather will be a major variable affecting output in Q4 [10]. - **Imports**: In August 2025, China's natural rubber imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Thailand is the largest source, and imports from Cote d'Ivoire are growing. If the China - Cote d'Ivoire zero - tariff policy is implemented, imports may further increase [17]. - **Inventory in Qingdao**: As of September 19, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 111.2 tons. Qingdao's inventory has been decreasing, but the pace has slowed. In Q4, the inventory reduction pressure may increase with more arrivals from major producing areas [20]. Synthetic Rubber - **Profit of Butadiene Rubber Enterprises**: In 2025, the large increase in butadiene production capacity led to an oversupply situation, putting pressure on prices. The cost of butadiene rubber remains high, and production profit is under pressure. Although production growth has slowed, it remains at a high level [28]. - **Inventory of Butadiene Rubber**: As of the week of September 26, the factory inventory of butadiene rubber was 26,600 tons, and the trader inventory was 5,700 tons, both higher than the same period last year. The market is in a weak supply - demand balance, and attention should be paid to inventory digestion during the peak demand season [29]. - **Imports and Exports of Butadiene Rubber**: In August 2025, China's butadiene rubber imports decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, while exports increased. China has shifted from a net importer to a net exporter, and this pattern is expected to continue in Q4 [31]. Tires - **All - steel Tires**: As of September 26, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires was 66.39%, and the factory inventory days were 39.16 days. The social inventory at the end of August was 62,500 units. Factory inventory has decreased significantly, but social inventory remains high. After the National Day holiday, the resumption of production by tire enterprises will affect supply pressure [36]. - **Semi - steel Tires**: In August, the production of passenger cars and semi - steel tires increased. However, due to the mismatch between supply and demand and EU anti - dumping investigations, the factory inventory pressure is large [43]. - **Tire Exports**: In August 2025, the export of all - steel tires was relatively stable, with new growth points in emerging markets. The export of semi - steel tires decreased after reaching a high in July. In Q4, semi - steel tire exports may face downward pressure, while all - steel tires may benefit from emerging markets [46]. 3.3 Related Price Situation - The price spreads among the three major rubber futures contracts were relatively stable, indicating that the internal supply - demand fundamentals of rubber were not significantly differentiated, and market influencing factors tended to be consistent [50]. 3.4 Future Market Outlook - In Q4, raw material prices are expected to run stably, providing cost support. The supply from Cote d'Ivoire may increase. Qingdao's inventory reduction pressure may grow. The tire industry's inventory and production resumption after the National Day will affect demand. Macroeconomic factors include the impact of the Fed's interest - rate cuts and potential domestic macro - easing policies. The market will likely oscillate within a range, with supply pressure more obvious in the early stage and potential for rebounds later [53].

Group 1: Market Overview - In the second week of September, the butadiene rubber market experienced an overall decline due to intensified supply-demand conflicts and Mexico's tariffs on Chinese automotive products [1] - As of September 17, the mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber in East China was 11,650 yuan per ton, a decrease of 70 yuan compared to early September, reflecting a decline of 0.60% [1] Group 2: Production Capacity - From January to August, China's butadiene rubber production exceeded 1.02 million tons, an increase of 210,000 tons year-on-year [2] - New production capacities are expected to be released in the second half of the year, particularly around October, which may increase market supply pressure [2] - Jilin Petrochemical's 50,000 tons/year butadiene rubber facility is scheduled to start production in mid to late October, potentially intensifying supply competition [2] Group 3: Demand Trends - The tire industry, which accounts for over 70% of butadiene rubber consumption, has seen significant profit declines, with some companies reporting profit drops exceeding 50% [4] - As of the end of August, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi-steel tire sample enterprises was 70.97%, a decrease of 0.90 percentage points month-on-month and 8.73 percentage points year-on-year [4] - Despite the traditional peak season, the tire industry is not performing well, with many companies maintaining regular production schedules and cautious purchasing behavior [4] Group 4: Cost Dynamics - The domestic butadiene market is expected to face oversupply in 2025, with an anticipated increase in production capacity of 930,000 tons [5] - The price decline of butadiene rubber futures has led to concerns about the pricing of styrene-butadiene rubber, further suppressing butadiene prices [5] - Butadiene accounts for 75% to 80% of the production cost of butadiene rubber, and its price decline significantly weakens cost support for butadiene rubber [5]