证 券 研 究 报 告 华鲁恒升（600426）2025 年中报点评 强推（维持） 邮箱：yanghui@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522050001 Q2 业绩环比修复，技改升级+新材料新项目 助力长期成长 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 34,226 | 35,765 | 38,608 | 40,910 | | 同比增速(%) | 25.6% | 4.5% | 8.0% | 6.0% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 3,903 | 3,510 | 4,167 | 4,739 | | 同比增速(%) | 9.1% | -10.1% | 18.7% | 13.7% | | 每股盈利(元) | 1.84 | 1.65 | 1.96 | 2.23 | | 市盈率(倍) | 15 | 16.2 | 13.6 | 12.0 | | 市净率(倍) | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 资料来源：公司公告 ...

资料显示，山东华鲁恒升化工股份有限公司位于山东省德州市天衢西路24号，成立日期2000年4月26 日，上市日期2002年6月20日，公司主营业务涉及尿素、甲醇的生产和销售。主营业务收入构成为：新 能源新材料相关产品48.01%，化学肥料21.32%，醋酸及衍生品11.89%，其他产品10.18%，有机胺 7.34%，其他(补充)1.26%。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年6月30日，华鲁恒升十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第二大流 通股东，持股7635.46万股，相比上期增加854.95万股。华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF（510300）位居第五大流 通股东，持股2653.24万股，相比上期增加239.16万股。中泰星元灵活配置混合A（006567）位居第六大 流通股东，持股2597.13万股，相比上期减少238.14万股。易方达沪深300ETF（510310）位居第九大流 通股东，持股1886.33万股，相比上期增加188.25万股。 华鲁恒升所属申万行业为：基础化工-农化制品-氮肥。所属概念板块包括：化肥、煤化工、大盘、 MSCI中国、基金重仓等。 8月29日，华鲁恒升盘中上涨2.21%，截至13:47， ...

Group 1 - The chemical sector experienced a significant rally on August 26, with the Chemical ETF (516020) rising over 2% at one point and closing up 1.67% [1][2] - Key stocks in the sector included Zhonghua International, which hit the daily limit, and Zhongke Titanium, which surged over 9%, while several others like Xin Fengming and Luxi Chemical rose over 5% [1][2] - Recent trends indicate a push towards "anti-involution" in various chemical sub-industries, suggesting that both administrative and self-regulatory measures are needed for improvement [1][3] Group 2 - Huatai Securities noted that the industry's profitability is at a low point, and with policy guidance, supply-side adjustments are expected to accelerate, potentially improving profitability for bulk chemical products [3] - The chemical sector is anticipated to benefit from increased demand driven by economic growth in regions like Africa and Latin America, with exports becoming a crucial growth engine [3] - Current valuations for the chemical sector are attractive, with the Chemical ETF's underlying index trading at a price-to-book ratio of 2.22, which is at a low percentile compared to the last decade [3][4] Group 3 - Open-source Securities highlighted that as specific policies are implemented, some outdated capacities in the chemical industry may be eliminated, leading to an optimized competitive landscape and improved profitability [4] - The Chemical ETF (516020) is positioned to provide efficient exposure to the sector, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap leading stocks, allowing investors to capitalize on strong performance opportunities [4]

华鲁恒升所属申万行业为：基础化工-农化制品-氮肥。所属概念板块包括：煤化工、化肥、社保重仓、 MSCI中国、增持回购等。 8月22日，华鲁恒升发布2025年半年报。报告显示，公司上半年营业收入为157.64亿元，同比下降 7.14%；归母净利润为15.69亿元，同比下降29.47%；扣非归母净利润为15.59亿元，同比下降30.29%； 基本每股收益0.74元。 2025年上半年，公司期间费用为6.69亿元，较上年同期增加7489.40万元；期间费用率为4.25%，较上年 同期上升0.74个百分点。其中，销售费用同比增长9.13%，管理费用同比减少16.75%，研发费用同比增 长38.35%，财务费用同比增长4.21%。 筹码集中度方面，截至2025年上半年末，公司股东总户数为5.27万户，较一季度末下降了9447户，降幅 15.20%；户均持股市值由一季度末的75.50万元增加至87.30万元，增幅为15.63%。 资料显示，山东华鲁恒升化工股份有限公司位于山东省德州市天衢西路24号，成立日期2000年4月26 日，上市日期2002年6月20日，公司主营业务涉及尿素、甲醇的生产和销售。主营业务收入构成为：新 ...

中化新网讯 中国氮肥工业协会近日在银川召开的2025年全国氮肥、甲醇行业经济运行分析暨生产统计 工作会议上，协会理事长顾宗勤提出，下半年国内氮肥保供无虞，但叠加农业需求逐渐转淡、工业需求 疲软、国际市场不确定性增多等不利因素，氮肥企业生产经营应更加谨慎和理性。 顾宗勤说，近两年国内氮肥供应能力持续增加。2024年下半年新增尿素产能264万吨，2025年上半年新 增尿素产能95万吨，上半年累计供应增量超130万吨。氮肥协会尿素周报统计显示，2025年上半年国内 尿素平均日产量19.3万吨，同比增加8.4%，累计开工率83.2%，装置产能发挥稳定。国内尿素日产量在 19万～20万吨水平波动，已达近十年以来同期最高日产水平，进入高日产、高开工时代。 今年上半年国内氮肥需求同样保持增长。合成氨表观消费量3897.3万吨，同比增长9.3%；氮肥表观消费 量2391.9万吨(折纯)，同比增长7%；尿素表观消费量3605.7万吨，同比增长9.4%。与此同时，上半年我 国氮肥累计出口281.8万吨纯氮，同比增长33.2%。 顾宗勤谈到，下半年氮肥市场影响因素较多，不仅国内产能过大压力逐步增大，煤头和气头企业成本上 的差距不断 ...

顾宗勤说，近两年国内氮肥供应能力持续增加。2024年下半年新增尿素产能264万吨，2025年上半年新 增尿素产能95万吨，上半年累计供应增量超130万吨。氮肥协会尿素周报统计显示，2025年上半年国内 尿素平均日产量19.3万吨，同比增加8.4%，累计开工率83.2%，装置产能发挥稳定。国内尿素日产量在 19万～20万吨水平波动，已达近十年以来同期最高日产水平，进入高日产、高开工时代。 对此，顾宗勤强调，下半年氮肥行业要重点做好以下工作。严格控制产能，理性控制产量；坚持自律出 口机制，平衡好国际国内两个市场；加强国际市场开拓，积极拥抱海外市场；强化科技创新，推进产业 转型升级；推动行业数字化转型，提升行业智能化水平；深化供给侧结构性改革，促进产业结构升级。 中化新网讯 中国氮肥工业协会近日在银川召开的2025年全国氮肥、甲醇行业经济运行分析暨生产统计 工作会议上，协会理事长顾宗勤提出，下半年国内氮肥保供无虞，但叠加农业需求逐渐转淡、工业需求 疲软、国际市场不确定性增多等不利因素，氮肥企业生产经营应更加谨慎和理性。 今年上半年国内氮肥需求同样保持增长。合成氨表观消费量3897.3万吨，同比增长9.3%；氮肥表观 ...

中化新网讯 中国氮肥工业协会近日在银川召开的2025年全国氮肥、甲醇行业经济运行分析暨生产统计 工作会议上，协会理事长顾宗勤提出，下半年国内氮肥保供无虞，但叠加农业需求逐渐转淡、工业需求 疲软、国际市场不确定性增多等不利因素，氮肥企业生产经营应更加谨慎和理性。 顾宗勤说，近两年国内氮肥供应能力持续增加。2024年下半年新增尿素产能264万吨，2025年上半年新 增尿素产能95万吨，上半年累计供应增量超130万吨。氮肥协会尿素周报统计显示，2025年上半年国内 尿素平均日产量19.3万吨，同比增加8.4%，累计开工率83.2%，装置产能发挥稳定。国内尿素日产量在 19万～20万吨水平波动，已达近十年以来同期最高日产水平，进入高日产、高开工时代。 今年上半年国内氮肥需求同样保持增长。合成氨表观消费量3897.3万吨，同比增长9.3%；氮肥表观消费 量2391.9万吨(折纯)，同比增长7%；尿素表观消费量3605.7万吨，同比增长9.4%。与此同时，上半年我 国氮肥累计出口281.8万吨纯氮，同比增长33.2%。 顾宗勤谈到，下半年氮肥市场影响因素较多，不仅国内产能过大压力逐步增大，煤头和气头企业成本上 的差距不断 ...

Group 1 - Jinhe Biological plans to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary with an investment of 10 million yuan to expand into the pet business, focusing on pet food and supplies, food additives, and medical research [1] - CNOOC Development intends to sell its cold energy business and assets to a related party for a total of 371 million yuan [1] - Shentong Express reported a revenue of 4.287 billion yuan in July, a year-on-year increase of 9.95% [2] Group 2 - Haosai received a warning letter from the Beijing Securities Regulatory Bureau due to suspected bribery involving its controlling shareholder [4] - Zhenyang Development is planning a major asset restructuring, leading to a temporary suspension of its stock [5] - Chitianhua's subsidiary will undergo a planned maintenance shutdown for 35 days, which will not affect the annual production targets [7] Group 3 - Aikang Pharmaceutical reported a net loss of 139 million yuan in the first half of the year, despite a revenue increase of 10.26% [8] - Zhaojin Gold achieved a net profit of 446.946 million yuan in the first half of the year, reversing a loss from the previous year [9] - CNOOC Development reported a net profit of 1.83 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 13.15% [10] Group 4 - Hanchuan Intelligent reported a net profit of 22.935 million yuan in the first half of the year, compared to a loss in the same period last year [11] - Songyuan Safety's net profit increased by 30.85% year-on-year, with a revenue of 1.148 billion yuan [12] - Hengdian Film reported a net profit of 202 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 128.61% [13] Group 5 - Ruoyu Chen's net profit increased by 85.6% year-on-year, with a revenue of 1.319 billion yuan [14] - Ruida Futures reported a net profit of 228 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66.49% [16] - Yangjie Technology's net profit increased by 41.55% year-on-year, with a revenue of 3.455 billion yuan [17] Group 6 - Yahua Group reported a net profit of 136 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.87% [19] - Zhenyou Technology reported a net loss of 47.594 million yuan in the first half of the year [20] - Xinghui Co., Ltd. announced a share transfer agreement involving 6.99% of its shares [21] Group 7 - Shaanxi Natural Gas plans to transfer 13% of its shares through an agreement [23] - Zhenyou Technology received government subsidies totaling 6.0487 million yuan, accounting for 22.05% of its net profit [25] - Kema Technology plans to reduce its shareholding by up to 1.72% through a strategic employee placement plan [26]

中化新网讯 8月6日，山东省工信厅发布《关于部署2025年度工业节能监察任务和工业节能降碳诊断服 务工作的通知》（以下简称《通知》），多家石化企业被列入清单。 根据《通知》，26家炼化企业、13家合成氨企业、3家化纤及混纺机织物企业、2家轮胎企业、1家化工 企业、1家化肥企业、1家钛白粉企业、1家煤制甲醇企业列入工业节能监察任务清单；1家石化企业、5 家氮肥企业、1家橡胶和塑料制品企业、1家氯碱企业、3家化工企业列入工业节能降碳诊断服务工作任 务清单。 《通知》强调，工业节能降碳诊断要针对企业生产工艺流程、重点产品设备、用能结构及能量系统优 化、能源管理和碳管理体系建设等方面，查找短板弱项。在此基础上，提出技术、设备、管理等方面节 能降碳改造措施建议，为诊断企业提供可复制易推广的节能降碳系统解决方案。 《通知》还提出，要发挥好工业节能降碳服务对引导企业实施节能技术改造、推动设备更新升级、促进 工业节能降碳的重要作用，组织节能降碳诊断服务机构按照工业和信息化部通知要求高质量完成节能降 碳诊断服务任务。鼓励有条件的地市扩大工业节能降碳诊断服务内容和范围，针对重点行业企业开展产 品碳足迹核算、企业碳排放核算，为能耗 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report explores why European energy CPI remains high despite significant declines in energy prices, the lack of benefits from low-cost renewable energy for the public, and the impact of high electricity prices on commodities [5][11] Summary by Sections 1. European Energy CPI and Electricity Prices - European energy CPI reached a historical peak of 192.5 in October 2022, driven by extreme weather and geopolitical conflicts, despite a subsequent 82% drop in natural gas prices and a 40% drop in oil prices by June 2025 [5][11] - As of June 2025, the average household electricity price in Germany was 40.0 euro cents per kWh, translating to an annual cost of approximately 11,573 RMB for a typical family [11][12] 2. Factors Supporting High Electricity Prices - The high electricity prices are supported by five main factors: 1. The transition away from Russian energy sources has led to a doubling of procurement costs for LNG from the US [11][23] 2. Aging electricity infrastructure has resulted in rising grid costs, with distribution network costs increasing by 31.6% since 2019 [11][28] 3. Rising taxes and fees, which accounted for 38.4% of electricity costs in 2024, disproportionately burdening consumers [11][36] 4. Rigid renewable energy subsidies that add to end-user costs, despite a reduction in traditional subsidies [11][42] 5. High carbon emission costs, with EU-ETS prices reaching nearly 90 euros, contributing significantly to electricity costs [11][44] 3. Renewable Energy and Market Mechanisms - Despite an increase in renewable energy generation, with wind and solar accounting for 26.9% of total generation by June 2025, the benefits have not translated into lower consumer prices due to market structure issues [11][49] - The disconnect between wholesale and retail electricity markets has resulted in persistent high prices, as wholesale prices are often set by higher-cost fossil fuel generation [11][52] 4. Impact on Commodities and Manufacturing - High electricity prices have severely impacted energy-intensive industries, leading to reduced production in sectors like aluminum and fertilizers, while also diminishing the competitiveness of European manufacturing against countries like China [5][6]