行业轮动 TF策略周报 (20260223-20260301) | 基金代码 | ETF名称 | ETF市值 | 持有情况 | 重仓申万 行业 | | 周度择时信号 日度择时信号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (亿元) | | 及权重 | 参考 | 参考 | | 159707 | 地产ETF | 6. 65 | 继续持有 | 房地产开发(100%) | -1 | -1 | | 159745 | 建材ETF | 26. 61 | 调入 | 水泥(45.24%) | 1 | 1 | | 159796 | 电池ETF汇添富 | 84. 32 | 调入 | 电池(64.18%) | -1 | =1 | | 512800 | 银行ETF | 114.46 | 调入 | 股份制银行 (42.01%) | -1 | -1 | | 159869 | 游戏ETF | 122. 27 | 调入 | 游戏 (83.85%) | 1 | -1 | | 159766 | 旅游ETF | 78.92 | 继续持有 | 航空机场(33.21%) | 0 | 0 | ...

2026 年 3 月 2 日 | H70529@capital.com.tw | | | --- | --- | | 何利超 目标价(元) | 28 | 公司基本资讯 | 产业别 | | | 传媒 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | A 股价(2026/2/27) | | | 21.59 | | 深证成指(2026/2/27) | | | 14495.09 | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | | 23.68/10.04 | | | 总发行股数(百万) | | | 1939.97 | | A 股数(百万) | | | 1827.73 | | A 市值(亿元) | | | 394.61 | | 主要股东 | | 完美世界控股 | | | | | 集团有限公司 | | | | | | (22.32%) | | 每股净值(元) | | | 3.65 | | | 一个月 三个月 | | 一年 | | 股价涨跌(%) | 21.6 52.4 | | 94.7 | 近期评等 | 出刊日期 | 前日收盘 | 评等 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-02-02 | 18.44 | ...

行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 03 月 02 日 证券分析师 陈良栋 SAC：S1350524100003 chenliangdong@huayuanstock.com 陈逸凡 SAC：S1350525040003 chenyifan@huayuanstock.com 周政宇 SAC：S1350525050006 zhouzhengyu@huayuanstock.com 许孟婕 SAC：S1350525120004 xumengjie@huayuanstock.com 联系人 证券研究报告 传媒 魏桢 weizhen@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 完美世界《异环》提档，Nano Banana2 发布 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——传媒互联网行业周报（2026.2.23-2026.2.27） 投资要点： 本周观点：【完美世界】超自然都市开放世界 RPG《异环》定档，将于国内 2026 年 4 月 23 日/海外 2026 年 4 月 29 日 PC/移动/主机三端上线，《异环》一定程 度实现 GTA 式开放世界×二游框架创新融合，题材新颖、副玩法类型多样、角 色羁绊互动深 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The gaming industry is experiencing a marginal improvement in the policy environment, with an increase in the number of game approvals and a more relaxed approach to content and themes, laying a friendlier foundation for industry development [1][2][3] - The gaming sector's performance is showing a significant upward trend, particularly in 2025, which is expected to be the best year in the past decade, supported by a strong product cycle and sustainable growth into 2026 [1][3] Core Insights and Arguments - The user base for gaming in China has seen positive growth for three consecutive years, with a projected growth rate of 1.35% in 2025, indicating an upward trend [1][4] - Female-oriented games are one of the fastest-growing segments, with female players making up 48% of online gamers by mid-2025, contributing significantly to user growth [5] - The overseas gaming market remains robust, with actual growth rates of 13% in 2025 and over 20% in January 2026, indicating strong competitiveness of Chinese developers in the global market [1][6][7] Important but Overlooked Content - The application of AI in the gaming industry is evolving from a cost-reduction tool to enhancing the gaming experience, potentially reshaping valuation logic [2][9] - User-Generated Content (UGC) is fundamentally changing the gaming landscape, transforming games into dynamic platforms shaped by both players and developers, which could disrupt traditional business models [10] - The "Search, Shoot, Withdraw" gameplay has become a significant growth driver in the shooting genre, with shooting games becoming the second-largest category in the Chinese gaming market by 2025 [11] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The gaming industry is expected to continue its growth trajectory, driven by user expansion, AI technology, and ongoing gameplay innovation [4][12] - The valuation of gaming companies is supported by a combination of technology, policy improvements, and sustained performance, with a focus on long-term product pipelines [13] - Recent adjustments in the gaming sector have seen valuations drop to around 15 times earnings, which is still below the perceived industry ceiling, suggesting continued investment opportunities [14]

传媒 2026 年 03 月 01 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 -17% 0% 17% 34% 50% 67% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 传媒 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《节后继续聚焦 AI 入口商业化、重磅 新游及长青游戏 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2026.2.23 《《异环》三测及字节 AI 视频模型惊 艳，继续布局游戏/多模态 AI 应用— 行业周报》-2026.2.8 《Moltbook、元宝、Genie3 出圈，继 续布局 AI 社交/游戏/营销—行业点评 报告》-2026.2.2 把握更确定方向，聚焦头部新游及核心 AI 应用 ——行业周报 方光照（分析师） fangguangzhao@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030004 《异环》定档 4.23 公测，或为潜在"爆款"，继续布局游戏，聚焦头部新游 完美世界旗下二次元超自然都市开放世界游戏《异环》已官宣将于 4 月 23 日开 启国服公测，届时同步上线 PC、安卓、iOS、Mac、鸿蒙、PS5 平台，海外公测 也将随后于 4 月 29 日开启。此前于 2.4-2.18 期间进行 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights & Investment Recommendations - In February, 152 game licenses were approved, with 146 domestic and 6 imported games passing the review. Key products include Tencent's "Snow in the World" and others. As of February, 334 game licenses have been approved in 2026, indicating a stable issuance rhythm and a solid foundation for healthy industry development [2][20] - The rapid development of AI applications, combined with a recovery in entertainment consumption, presents investment opportunities in leading internet companies in Hong Kong, the gaming industry, and the film and cultural tourism sectors. Beneficiaries include Tencent, Alibaba, and others [21][6] Sub-industry Data Film Industry - The top three films by box office this week are "Flying Life 3" with 94,822.7 thousand yuan, "Biao Ren: Wind Rising in the Desert" with 34,787.9 thousand yuan, and "Silent Awakening" with 26,230.1 thousand yuan [22][23] Gaming Industry - The top three iOS games by revenue are "Honor of Kings," "Peacekeeper Elite," and "Gold Shovel Battle." The top three Android games by popularity are "Heartbeat Town," "Diver Dave," and "Minecraft: Mobile Edition" [24][25] TV Series Industry - The top three TV series by broadcast index are "Taiping Year," "Eliminate Evil," and "Love in the Pure Era," with indices of 80.3, 79, and 78.8 respectively [26][27] Variety and Animation - The top variety show is "Now Departing Season 3" with a broadcast index of 69.6, followed by "The Strongest Brain Season 13" and "Hello Saturday 2026" [28][29] - The top three animations by viewership index are "Happy Hammer," "Xian Ni," and "Beyond Time," with indices of 288.1, 234.4, and 229.5 respectively [30]

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 3 月 1 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：赵琳 邮箱：zhaolin@hx168.com.cn SAC NO：S1120520040003 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 [Table_Title] 2 月 152 款游戏版号落地，Anthropic 指控国 产模型"蒸馏" [Table_Title2] 传媒行业周报系列 2026 年第 8 周 [Table_Summary] ►市场行情回顾 2026 年第8周（实际交易日为 2026.2.23-2026.2.27）上证 指数上涨 1.98%，沪深 300 指数上涨 1.08%，创业板指数上 涨 1.05%。恒生指数上涨 0.82%，恒生互联网指数下跌 2.49%，行业落后恒生指数 3.31pct。SW 传媒指数下跌 5.1%，跑输创业板指数 6.15pct，在申万一级 31 个行业涨 跌幅排名中位列第 31 位。子行业中影视、游戏和广告营销 位 列 前 三位，分别为上涨 4.26%、上涨 0.37%和下跌 0.17%。 ►核心观点&投资建议 2 月 152 款游戏版号落地， ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report suggests a positive outlook for the AI industry and gaming sectors, indicating that recent market corrections may present better investment opportunities [12] - E-commerce sector shows mixed results, with Alibaba leading in AI advancements but facing pessimistic revenue growth expectations, leading to stock price fluctuations [16] - Social entertainment media, particularly Tencent and Bilibili, are expected to maintain strong growth, with Bilibili's advertising growth likely to outperform the overall internet advertising market [16] Group 2: E-commerce Insights - Alibaba's AI developments are significant, with the launch of the Qwen 3.5-Plus model, which has shown competitive performance at a lower cost, enhancing its market position [13] - Meituan is expected to face challenges due to intense competition in the food delivery sector, impacting profitability in the short term [16] Group 3: Gaming Sector Insights - The gaming sector is anticipated to maintain a favorable outlook, with new product launches expected to drive growth in 2026 [14] - Companies like Century Huatong and Perfect World are highlighted for their strong product pipelines and potential for revenue growth [18] Group 4: AI Developments - The report notes a growing concern about AI's impact on traditional industries, with a shift in market focus towards model technology pricing and capabilities [20] - The upcoming second quarter of 2026 is expected to see a new wave of model iterations, with domestic models catching up rapidly [20] Group 5: Advertising and Marketing - The advertising sector is seeing increased activity, with companies like Focus Media ramping up ad placements, particularly in consumer goods ahead of major events like the World Cup [18] - AI marketing is gaining traction, with companies like Titanium Technology preparing for an IPO, indicating strong growth potential in this area [19] Group 6: Media and Entertainment - The long video sector is stabilizing, with companies exploring new business avenues, while short video platforms like Kuaishou are benefiting from technological advancements [17] - The report emphasizes the importance of content production capabilities and project pipelines for companies in the film and television industry [19]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Recommended" indicating a positive outlook for the industry fundamentals and an expectation that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index [2][7]. Core Insights - The gaming industry is expected to benefit significantly from the AI wave, with leading companies likely to thrive amidst concerns that AI may disrupt the gaming sector [5]. - The report suggests that while AI may lower the barriers to game development, creating large-scale games will still require substantial resources, making it unlikely for small teams to compete with established gaming giants [5]. - Historical trends show that leading gaming companies have consistently benefited from technological advancements, and they are well-positioned to adapt to new changes in the industry [5]. Industry Overview - The gaming sector consists of 160 companies with a total market capitalization of 2,270.9 billion and a circulating market value of 2,090.9 billion [2]. - The absolute performance of the industry over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is -0.9%, 22.7%, and 27.0% respectively, while the relative performance is 1.2%, 11.1%, and 7.7% [4]. Company Recommendations - The report continues to favor leading gaming companies such as Tencent, NetEase, Century Huatong, Giant Network, and others, indicating a strong belief in their potential to leverage AI advancements [5].

Key Insights - The report highlights the competitive landscape in the AI sector during the Spring Festival, with major players like ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent achieving significant user engagement and interaction through their AI applications [1][8] - The report discusses the advancements in autonomous driving, including legislative support in the US and significant developments from companies like Tesla and Waymo, indicating a growing market for self-driving technology [2][9] - The US Supreme Court's ruling against the "reciprocal tariffs" imposed by the Trump administration is expected to impact trade dynamics significantly, affecting various sectors [3][10] Recent Key Events - ByteDance's AI model generated over 50 million new year avatars and achieved 19 billion interactions during the Spring Festival, showcasing its strong user engagement [1][8] - Alibaba's "Qianwen" app facilitated nearly 200 million orders during the holiday, with a notable user base of older adults successfully utilizing the service [1][8] - Tencent's user engagement metrics reached new highs, with over 50 million daily active users during the Spring Festival, reflecting the effectiveness of its promotional activities [1][8] Market Situation - The Hang Seng Index fell from 27,387 points at the end of January to 26,381 points by February 26, marking a decline of 3.7% [11] - The Hang Seng Technology Index experienced a more significant drop of 10.6% during the same period [11] - Net inflows from southbound trading reached 75.6 billion HKD in February, indicating a positive trend in capital movement [12] Current Investment Recommendations - Focus on growth-oriented real estate and energy companies such as Beike-W, China Qinfa, and Power Development, which are expected to perform well in the current market [21] - Consider companies benefiting from the adjustment of the Hong Kong Stock Connect, like Leshushi, which is positioned for growth in the African hygiene products market [21] - Internet companies like Alibaba and Tencent are recommended due to their advancements in AI and strong market positions [21] Company-Specific Insights - Beike-W (2423.HK) is positioned as a leader in the real estate brokerage sector, with expected net profits of 37.1 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth trajectory despite market challenges [22][24] - China Qinfa (0866.HK) is transitioning away from coal operations in Shanxi and focusing on its growing Indonesian coal business, with projected profits of 6.1 billion CNY by 2026 [25][26] - Leshushi (2698.HK) is a leading player in the African hygiene products market, with a projected net profit growth of 18.5% in 2025, driven by increasing market penetration [35][36] - Alibaba (9988.HK) is enhancing its AI capabilities with the launch of the Qwen3.5 model, which is expected to drive significant revenue growth across its platforms [39][40] - Tencent (0700.HK) is experiencing strong growth in its gaming and advertising segments, with a projected revenue increase to 7,530 billion CNY by 2025 [44][46]