2025 年 12 月 24 日 | H70529@capital.com.tw | | | --- | --- | | 何利超 目标价(元) | 110 | 公司基本资讯 | 产业别 | 通信 | | --- | --- | | A 股价(2025/12/23) | 92.64 | | 上证指数(2025/12/23) | 3919.98 | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | 113/56.07 | | 总发行股数(百万) | 261.66 | | A 股数(百万) | 261.66 | | A 市值(亿元) | 242.40 | | 主要股东 | 钱鹏鹤 | | | (17.19%) | | 每股净值(元) | 17.28 | | | 一个月 三个月 一年 | | 股价涨跌(%) | 7.5 -12.7 44.3 | 近期评等 | 出刊日期 | 前日收盘 | 评等 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-07-11 | 81.77 | 买进 | | 2025-04-29 | 74.60 | 买进 | | 2025-01-23 | 83.17 | 买进 | | 2024-09-23 | 39 ...

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者胡梦然 见习记者 黄海婷 深圳报道 12月19日，截至收盘，广和通A股较开盘时上涨的0.63%，单日微跌0.22%，报27.10元/股，成交7.94亿 元，换手率5.46%，总市值244.04亿元。其H股盘中上涨1.81%，报15.76港元/股，成交1618万元，换手 率1.21%，总市值141.92亿元。较18日的双线下跌，广和通"A+H"股价已显露止跌企稳迹象。 10月22日，作为全球市场份额第二的无线通信模组龙头广和通登陆港交所，完成了"A+H"两地上市的关 键一跃。然而，这场备受瞩目的资本布局，在随后的两个月里却上演了一出跌宕起伏的市场心理剧。上 市初期，其A股因"端侧AI"等前沿题材被热炒，而H股则显得冷静理性，形成鲜明的"温差"；但剧情在 12月中旬陡然转折，两地股价罕见地同步下跌。 可能不太稳定"。与此同时，根据市盈率估值模型，广和通当前市盈率高达58.02，估值分位点处于上市 以来92.56%的极高位置。这意味着，即便经历回调，其估值性价比对长期资金而言仍缺乏吸引力。 几位股民的直观感受，也印证了数据揭示的情绪转变。 一度乐观的梁先生接受记者采访时 ...

来源：Counterpoint Research 全球蜂窝物联网模组与芯片应用追踪报告，2025 年 Q3 智通财经APP获悉，根据Counterpoint Research 2025年Q3全球蜂窝物联网模组与芯片追踪报告，2025年Q3全球蜂窝物联网模组出货量同比增长10%。智能 仪表、资产追踪、路由器/CPE和汽车领域的文件需求持续推动市场保持增长趋势。传统RF/PLC系统向蜂窝网络的转型正在加速推进，为下一阶段以能力 为核心的物联网部署奠定基础。 与此同时，本季度盈利环境进一步收紧，现金流实力正成为竞争关键差异化因素。在平均销售价格（ASP）下行的环境下，只有流动性稳健的供应商才能 在不稀释利润的情况下继续投入RedCap、AI产品和客户支持体系。 高级分析师Tina Lu在评论区域趋势时指出："本季度的增长主要集中在新兴市场和价格敏感市场。印度市场同比增长40%，在智能电表、POS终端及远程 信息处理技术的带动下连续多个季度保持强势。中东非地区以较小基数取得了第二快增速，受益于国家级公用事业现代化及路由器/CPE应用需求。拉美 部分市场则依托远程信息处理和智能电表需求推动而扩张。" Lu补充道："成熟 ...

Group 1: Regulatory Developments - Shanghai Arbitration Commission is set to release the "Shanghai Arbitration Committee Securities and Futures Arbitration Rules" on December 26, 2024, marking a significant step in the establishment of a local arbitration framework for securities and futures [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has granted conditional access for the first L3-level autonomous driving vehicles in China, allowing two models to conduct road trials in designated areas of Beijing and Chongqing [1] Group 2: Market Trends - Counterpoint Research reports a 10% year-on-year increase in global cellular IoT module shipments in Q3 2025, driven by strong demand in smart meters, asset tracking, routers/CPE, and automotive applications, with India showing a remarkable 40% growth [2] - McDonald's has raised prices on various menu items by 0.5 to 1 yuan, including popular items like the Big Mac and McNuggets, indicating a trend of price adjustments in the fast-food sector [3] Group 3: Corporate Actions - HashKey Holdings Ltd. has set its IPO price close to the upper limit of the range, aiming to raise 1.6 billion HKD (approximately 206 million USD) [7] - Gold Ham announced the resignation of its president, Guo Bo, who will continue to serve as vice chairman and a member of the board's strategic committee [8] - KWH Holdings plans to repurchase shares worth 20 to 40 million yuan, with a maximum price of 95 yuan per share, aimed at employee stock ownership plans or equity incentives [14] Group 4: Financial Performance - Air China reported a 10.1% year-on-year increase in passenger turnover for November 2025, with a 4.9% rise in passenger capacity and an average seat occupancy rate of 83.3%, up by 4 percentage points [15]

Core Viewpoint - Guanghe Tong (300638) has seen a significant increase in stock price following strategic partnerships aimed at advancing the consumer AI glasses industry and enhancing its technological capabilities [1] Group 1: Strategic Partnerships - On October 27, Guanghe Tong announced a strategic collaboration with leading AR glasses technology company XREAL to promote the consumer-grade AI glasses industry [1] - The partnership aims to leverage both companies' technological strengths and manufacturing capabilities to accelerate innovation and large-scale implementation in the AR+AI consumer ecosystem [1] - Additionally, Guanghe Tong has formed a strategic alliance with Hesai Technology to jointly release a multi-modal perception and control solution based on LiDAR technology [1] Group 2: Market Performance and Growth Potential - Guanghe Tong's stock rose over 6% in the afternoon trading session, with a current increase of 3.67%, trading at 19.2 HKD and a transaction volume of 26.82 million HKD [1] - According to Shenwan Hongyuan, Guanghe Tong is positioned as a core player in the global IoT module market, with expectations for continued performance growth driven by AI/robotics and automotive/FWA deployments [1] - China Merchants Securities noted that Guanghe Tong's successful listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and completed financing enhances its strength, positioning the company to capitalize on the accelerating trends in edge intelligence [1]

Core Viewpoint - Guanghe Tong (00638) has seen a significant increase in stock price following strategic partnerships aimed at advancing the consumer-grade AI glasses industry and enhancing its technological capabilities [1] Group 1: Strategic Partnerships - On October 27, Guanghe Tong announced a strategic collaboration with leading AR glasses technology company XREAL to drive innovation in the consumer-grade AI glasses sector [1] - Additionally, Guanghe Tong has formed a strategic partnership with Hesai Technology to jointly release a multi-modal perception and control solution based on LiDAR technology [1] Group 2: Market Performance and Growth Potential - Guanghe Tong's stock rose over 6% in the afternoon trading session, with a current price of 19.2 HKD and a trading volume of 26.82 million HKD [1] - According to Shenwan Hongyuan, Guanghe Tong is positioned as a core player in the global IoT module market, with expected performance growth driven by AI/robotics and automotive/FWA deployments [1] - China Merchants Securities noted that Guanghe Tong's successful listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and completed financing are expected to enhance its strength and growth potential in the rapidly developing edge intelligence industry [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market by more than 20% [7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.366 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 13.7%. However, excluding the impact of a specific business segment, revenue showed a year-over-year increase of 7.32% [5][6]. - The company is focusing on the integration of AI and robotics, with strategic partnerships aimed at enhancing its product offerings in these areas. A notable collaboration with XREAL aims to provide ODM solutions for AR glasses, enhancing local processing capabilities for AI tasks [7]. - The company has established an AIC product line to deliver AI algorithms and hardware solutions for the robotics industry, with plans for mass production of intelligent robotic solutions in 2024 [7]. Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 7.537 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-over-year decline of 8%. However, growth is expected to rebound in subsequent years, with forecasts of 9.391 billion yuan in 2026 and 11.803 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 24.6% and 25.7% respectively [6][9]. - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 493 million yuan, down 26.1% from the previous year, but is expected to recover to 641 million yuan in 2026 and 841 million yuan in 2027 [6][9]. - The report highlights a recovery in gross margin, which increased to 18.73% in Q3 2025, up 2.9 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [7]. Market Position and Strategic Outlook - The company is positioned as a core player in the global IoT module market, with expectations that its AI and robotics initiatives will drive performance growth. The report notes that concerns regarding tariffs on modules are manageable due to the company's limited exposure to certain markets [7]. - The company is also expanding its offerings in the FWA (Fixed Wireless Access) sector, with the introduction of a new 5G R17 module series, anticipating increased demand and market penetration [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the communication industry, indicating an expected performance exceeding the benchmark index by more than 10% [1][40]. Core Insights - Nvidia's GTC event provided a significant CAPEX guidance of $500 billion for the Blackwell-Rubin series, with North American CSPs showing a clear upward trend in capital expenditures for Q3 2025 [4][16]. - The report highlights a strong growth trend in AI infrastructure investments, with North American CSPs' capital expenditures reaching a total of $113.3 billion in Q3, marking a 75% year-on-year increase [5][17]. - The A-share communication industry is experiencing high growth in AI computing performance, although there is a mismatch between high short-term expectations and actual performance releases [5][17]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Nvidia's guidance for North American CSPs suggests CAPEX could reach $443 billion, $549 billion, and $632 billion from 2025 to 2027, with GPU shipments expected to total 20 million units [4][16]. - The report emphasizes the stability of capital markets regarding concerns over "AI bubble" investments, with Nvidia's roadmap enhancing investment certainty in areas like 1.6T optical modules and quantum computing [4][16]. A-Share Communication Industry Overview - The report notes that leading companies in optical modules, such as Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Technology, continue to expand production, with stable gross margin trends despite short-term performance fluctuations [5][17]. - The bottleneck effects in core materials like optical chips are becoming more pronounced, with domestic chip manufacturers expected to gain market share as overseas giants slow down production [5][17]. Market Performance - The overall market showed mixed performance during the week of October 27 to October 31, 2025, with the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 0.67% and the communication index declining by 3.59% [11][20]. - The report identifies cloud computing as the leading sector with a weekly increase of 22.48%, followed by IDC and equipment manufacturers [11][20]. Recommended Companies - The report suggests focusing on companies in various segments, including optical devices (e.g., Guangke Technology, Shijia Photon) and AIOT solutions (e.g., Rockchip, Yiyuan Communication) [20].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, but there are signs of recovery in the IoT module market and potential growth in AI computing at the edge, leading to a "buy" rating [1][3]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's revenue was 5.366 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 13.69%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 316 million, down 51.50% [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company's revenue was 1.659 billion, a year-on-year decline of 22.56%, with a net profit of 98 million, down 69.14% [1]. - Excluding the impact of the wireless communication module business, the revenue and net profit from continuing operations for the first three quarters showed a year-on-year increase of 7.32% and a decrease of 2.19%, respectively [1]. Gross Margin and Expense Control - The overall gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 17.14%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.58 percentage points [2]. - In Q3 2025, the gross margin was 18.73%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.33 percentage points but an increase of 2.90 percentage points from the previous quarter [2]. - The company maintained stable expense control, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios for the first three quarters at 2.20%, 2.02%, and 6.69%, respectively, all showing year-on-year declines [2]. Future Outlook - Demand for overseas FWA and general IoT businesses is expected to continue improving, with potential for stable recovery in profitability as the company's shipment structure improves [2]. - The trend of AI computing moving from cloud to edge is anticipated to create significant opportunities for the company, particularly in markets like AIPC and outdoor robotics [2]. Rating and Valuation - The company adjusted its revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 449 million, 578 million, and 689 million, respectively, with adjustments of -11%, -4%, and -2% [3]. - The target price is set at 32.41, based on a projected PE of 65x for 2025, reflecting an increase from the previous estimate of 55x due to comparable company valuation improvements [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the Internet of Things (IoT) module industry, highlighting a recovery in the industry driven by the trend of interconnected devices and the integration of AI technologies [1]. Core Insights - The IoT module industry is positioned as a critical component for achieving a fully connected world, facilitating communication between various devices and networks. The growth in IoT connections and market size is expected to continue, with projections indicating that global IoT connections could exceed 39 billion by 2029 [6][22]. - The integration of lightweight AI models and edge computing is anticipated to enhance the capabilities of IoT devices, leading to more personalized services and experiences across various sectors [6][46]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic companies in China, which are leading in the production of cellular IoT modules and are well-positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for smart modules [6][64]. Summary by Sections 1. IoT Module Demand Driven by Applications - IoT modules serve as the core infrastructure for achieving seamless connectivity and information exchange across devices [13]. - The global IoT industry is projected to reach a trillion-dollar scale, with a continuous increase in connection numbers driven by policy support and technological advancements [22][29]. 2. AI Integration and Edge Computing - The demand for edge computing is rising, with AI technologies enabling real-time data processing and decision-making at the device level [46]. - The report notes that the cost of deploying lightweight AI models has significantly decreased, making it feasible for IoT devices to incorporate advanced AI capabilities [43][44]. 3. Key Companies - The report highlights Yiyuan Communication as a leading global provider of IoT solutions, emphasizing its diverse product offerings and significant market share in the cellular IoT module sector [64][65]. - The company is actively expanding its market presence and developing high-performance products that integrate AI capabilities, positioning itself for future growth in the IoT landscape [65].