Core Viewpoint - The global AI computing power investment is expected to drive high growth in the optical communication sector's net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 2025 and 2026 [1] Group 1: Optical Communication Sector - The optical communication sector is anticipated to continue high growth in net profit due to increased investment in AI computing power [1] - Demand for hollow-core optical fibers, submarine cables, and DCI (Data Center Interconnect) is noteworthy [1] Group 2: Telecommunications Operators - The telecommunications operator sector is expected to maintain steady growth [1] - The development of AI applications is bringing new growth momentum to cloud computing and data center businesses for telecom operators [1] Group 3: ICT Equipment and IDC - The ICT equipment and IDC sectors are likely to benefit from the capital expenditure growth of internet giants [1] Group 4: Copper Connection Sector - The copper connection sector is set to realize growth as production capacity is released [1] Group 5: Market Trends - The optical module market is expected to maintain high prosperity due to ongoing investments in domestic and international computing infrastructure [1] - As of October 28, the communication ETF (515880) has a 52% allocation to optical modules and a 22% allocation to servers, with optical fibers and copper connections combined exceeding 81% [1]

Group 1: Communication Industry Overview - The communication industry is in a bullish phase, significantly outperforming the market, with the Shenwan Communication Index closing at 4,864.72 points and a year-to-date return of 63.37%, surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index (19.27%), Shenzhen Component Index (28.70%), and ChiNext Index (49.80%) [1][16] - The overall revenue growth rate of the communication industry remained stable in the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue reaching 1.95 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.22% [18][25] - The net profit level showed significant growth, with net profits in the first three quarters increasing by 6.69%, 8.26%, and 11.68% respectively, reflecting a seasonal pattern with the second quarter typically being the strongest [18][25][29] Group 2: Optical Communication - Capital expenditure from major cloud providers continues to grow, with total capital expenditure from North America's top four cloud companies (Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon) reaching 719.32 billion, 882.46 billion, and 972.71 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 62.4%, 67.0%, and 65.3% respectively [2][40] - The demand for optical modules is expected to increase significantly, with the ratio of 1.6T optical modules demand shifting from 1:2.5 to 1:5 due to the next-generation Vera Rubin architecture [2][52] - The competitive landscape in the optical module industry favors leading companies, as the supply of core materials is expected to remain tight, and leading firms are better positioned to secure orders [2][56] Group 3: Copper Connectivity - The high-speed copper cable market is expanding, driven by data flow growth and infrastructure upgrades, with the global communication cable industry projected to grow from 12.9 billion yuan in 2020 to 17 billion yuan by 2024, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.1% [71][73] - High-speed copper cables are considered the ideal solution for short-distance interconnects within data centers, with demand for multi-channel 800G, 1.6T, and 3.2T cables expected to rise [79][81] - The market for high-speed copper cables is relatively concentrated, with the top five manufacturers holding a combined market share of 86.8% in 2024 [81][82] Group 4: Edge AI and Aerospace Control - The edge AI industry is experiencing explosive growth, with market size and penetration rates expanding exponentially, particularly in smart security and automotive applications [3][4] - The global aerospace measurement and control system market is expected to reach sales of 1.179 billion dollars in 2024 and 2.509 billion dollars by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.4% [3][5] - The rapid development of low-orbit satellite internet is driving a surge in satellite constellations and launches, highlighting the scarcity of measurement and control resources [3][5]

Core Viewpoint - The telecommunications industry is expected to maintain steady growth, with a projected revenue and net profit increase of 5.2% and 12.3% respectively for the third quarter of 2025 compared to the previous year [1] Group 1: Industry Growth Projections - The total revenue and net profit for the selected 137 listed companies in the telecommunications sector are forecasted to grow by 5.2% and 12.3% year-on-year by Q3 2025 [1] - The light communication sector is anticipated to continue high net profit growth driven by increased global AI computing power investments [1] - The telecom operator segment is expected to maintain steady net profit growth [1] Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - The ICT equipment and IDC sectors are likely to benefit from increased capital expenditures by internet giants [1] - The copper connection sector is expected to continue releasing capacity, leading to net profit growth [1] - Demand for hollow-core optical fibers, submarine cables, and DCI in the optical fiber and cable sector is worth monitoring [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that the selected 137 listed companies in the telecommunications sector are expected to show steady growth in revenue and net profit by Q3 2025, with year-on-year increases of 5.2% and 12.3% respectively [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The telecommunications industry is projected to maintain a robust growth trend, with telecom operators continuing to show steady growth in net profit [1] - The optical communication and copper connection segments are seeing top manufacturers consistently delivering net profit growth driven by AI [1] - Revenue from liquid cooling equipment and ICT devices is stabilizing and showing signs of recovery [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - For Q4 2025 and 2026, increased investment in global AI computing power is expected to drive continued high growth in net profit for the optical communication segment [1] - Telecom operators are anticipated to maintain steady growth in net profit [1] - The ICT equipment and IDC segments are likely to benefit from increased capital expenditures by internet giants [1] - The copper connection segment is expected to continue releasing capacity, contributing to net profit growth [1] - Demand for hollow core optical fibers, submarine cables, and DCI in the optical fiber and cable sector is worth monitoring [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the communication industry, indicating an expected performance exceeding the benchmark index by more than 10% [1][40]. Core Insights - Nvidia's GTC event provided a significant CAPEX guidance of $500 billion for the Blackwell-Rubin series, with North American CSPs showing a clear upward trend in capital expenditures for Q3 2025 [4][16]. - The report highlights a strong growth trend in AI infrastructure investments, with North American CSPs' capital expenditures reaching a total of $113.3 billion in Q3, marking a 75% year-on-year increase [5][17]. - The A-share communication industry is experiencing high growth in AI computing performance, although there is a mismatch between high short-term expectations and actual performance releases [5][17]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Nvidia's guidance for North American CSPs suggests CAPEX could reach $443 billion, $549 billion, and $632 billion from 2025 to 2027, with GPU shipments expected to total 20 million units [4][16]. - The report emphasizes the stability of capital markets regarding concerns over "AI bubble" investments, with Nvidia's roadmap enhancing investment certainty in areas like 1.6T optical modules and quantum computing [4][16]. A-Share Communication Industry Overview - The report notes that leading companies in optical modules, such as Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Technology, continue to expand production, with stable gross margin trends despite short-term performance fluctuations [5][17]. - The bottleneck effects in core materials like optical chips are becoming more pronounced, with domestic chip manufacturers expected to gain market share as overseas giants slow down production [5][17]. Market Performance - The overall market showed mixed performance during the week of October 27 to October 31, 2025, with the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 0.67% and the communication index declining by 3.59% [11][20]. - The report identifies cloud computing as the leading sector with a weekly increase of 22.48%, followed by IDC and equipment manufacturers [11][20]. Recommended Companies - The report suggests focusing on companies in various segments, including optical devices (e.g., Guangke Technology, Shijia Photon) and AIOT solutions (e.g., Rockchip, Yiyuan Communication) [20].

Core Viewpoint - The optical communication sector is expected to continue delivering strong performance due to sustained high demand in both domestic and overseas markets, with an expanding industry chain prosperity trend anticipated [1] Group 1: Optical Communication Sector - The optical communication sector is projected to maintain high growth in performance driven by ongoing demand in both domestic and international markets [1] - The industry chain's prosperity is expected to continue expanding [1] Group 2: IDC Sector - The IDC sector is likely to experience a turning point due to the growth in demand for intelligent computing centers both domestically and internationally [1] Group 3: Copper Connection Sector - The copper connection sector's performance is expected to gradually improve as production capacity is released [1] Group 4: Fiber Optic Cable Sector - The prosperity of the fiber optic cable sector is anticipated to gradually recover [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The overseas computing power market is experiencing strong demand growth, exceeding previous pessimistic expectations, particularly in the optical module industry, which is seeing growth rates surpassing forecasts [2][1]. - The optical module market is expected to see significant growth driven by AI, with demand for 800G modules projected to reach 35-40 million units and 1.6T modules expected to reach 6-7 million units by 2026, maintaining an overall revenue growth rate of at least 50% [3][11]. Core Companies and Performance - Core companies in the optical module market include Xuchuang and Xinyi, both showing strong performance with Q2 results significantly exceeding market expectations, with Xinyi's revenue reaching approximately 2.4 billion yuan [5][4]. - Other notable companies include Bochuang and Taichuang, which are also performing well in the MPO segment, and Jin Tong and Woer in the same supply chain [5]. Profitability Trends - The profitability of the optical module industry is on the rise due to increased demand driven by AI, with new product price reductions narrowing to 10-15% compared to the previous 20% [3][4]. - Xuchuang's net profit margin and gross profit margin are expected to improve, indicating a continuing trend of profitability enhancement through 2026 [3][4]. Impact of NVIDIA's Supply Chain - NVIDIA's supply chain is significantly boosting the optical module industry, with Industrial Fulian reporting a Q2 profit of 6.7-6.9 billion yuan, a 30% year-on-year increase, largely due to accelerated shipments of NVIDIA GPU cabinets [6][8]. - The release of NVIDIA's GB200 and GB300 cabinets is expected to further drive industry growth in the second half of the year and into 2026 [6][8]. Model Iteration and Demand - The release of advanced AI models such as OpenAI's GPT-5 and XAI's GROK4 is anticipated to enhance performance and drive demand for computing power and hardware, thereby increasing the need for optical modules [9][10]. - The scaling laws demonstrated by GROK4, which has significantly increased training volume, highlight the importance of continued investment in computing infrastructure for AI model development [9]. Future Market Expectations - The optical module market demand for 2026 is being continuously revised upwards, with expectations for 800G and 1.6T modules being adjusted significantly higher than initial forecasts [10][11]. - The overall revenue growth for the optical module industry is expected to remain robust, supported by strong demand from major cloud service providers like Meta and new entrants like Oracle and XAI [10][11]. Secondary Companies to Watch - Secondary companies such as Bochuang, Taichuang, and Xiaoguangzi are noted for their long-term potential, with Bochuang expected to achieve revenues of around 1.5 billion yuan in 2026 due to strong partnerships [13]. - Taichuang's growth is closely tied to the demand for MPO connectors, while Xiaoguangzi is leveraging its AWG chip advantages to enhance its MPU business [13]. Copper Connection Industry Insights - The copper connection industry is seeing improvements in shipment expectations, particularly for NV chains, with anticipated shipments of 30,000 to 40,000 units for GB200 and GP300 [14]. - The market is also witnessing increased attention on non-NV chain demand, driven by rising shipments from companies like Google, Amazon, and Meta [14][15]. Concerns and Future Outlook - There are concerns regarding the potential replacement of copper connections by PDFE orthogonal solutions, but current products like NVIDIA's Rubin series are expected to maintain compatibility with existing copper solutions [16][17]. - The copper cable connection market is likely to remain strong in the near term, with a longer lifecycle anticipated if alternative solutions do not meet expectations [17]. Other Notable Company Performances - Woer has shown strong performance in the high-speed line sector, with significant revenue growth expected in Q3 due to new equipment and large-scale cabinet shipments [18]. - Ding Tong Technology's communication business is experiencing growth, although its automotive segment faces challenges; however, future projects with high profit margins are expected to bolster overall performance [19][21].

Market Overview - The three major indices opened mixed, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.04% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.04% [1] - The iron ore, memory storage, and fiberglass sectors showed the highest gains, while the China Shipbuilding sector, AI corpus, and Kuaishou concept sectors experienced the largest declines [1] Index Performance - Shanghai Composite Index: 3,474.63, up 0.04%, with 845 gainers and 889 losers [2] - Shenzhen Component Index: 10,431.78, down 0.04%, with 1,073 gainers and 1,203 losers [2] - Northbound 50 Index: 1,403.84, up 0.14%, with 133 gainers and 100 losers [2] - ChiNext Index: 2,129.49, down 0.03%, with 546 gainers and 620 losers [2] U.S. Market Performance - U.S. stock markets opened lower and closed with the worst single-day performance since mid-June, with the Dow Jones down 0.94%, S&P 500 down 0.79%, and Nasdaq down 0.92% [3] - Notable movements in Chinese concept stocks included Bilibili up 7.66% and Alibaba down 2.24% [3] Institutional Insights - CICC reported that the active trading volume is a crucial indicator of capital market depth, suggesting a significant change in the asset and funding structure of the Hong Kong stock market, which may enhance long-term growth potential [4] - Huatai Securities indicated that the IDC sector is expected to benefit from the growing demand for intelligent computing centers, marking a potential turning point for the industry [5] - CITIC Securities maintained a "stronger than market" rating for the beauty industry, highlighting a 10%+ GMV growth during the recent 618 shopping festival [6] - Huatai Securities noted that domestic leading companies are likely to benefit from improved fertilizer demand and profitability due to global planting area growth and limited new industry capacity [7]

Market Overview - On May 9, the three major stock indices opened lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index at 3350.41 points, down 0.05%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 10190.13 points, down 0.07%, and the ChiNext Index at 2028.43 points, down 0.05% [3] Industry Insights - Gold, retail, CPO, and semiconductor sectors experienced significant declines, while military stocks showed strength [3] - Recent mergers and acquisitions in the military sector, particularly by central enterprises, are expected to have a profound impact on the industry, with notable short-term stock price increases following the implementation of these capital operations [4] Sector Analysis - **Telecommunications Sector**: - The telecommunications sector is expected to benefit from increased investment in AI computing power, with a focus on optical communication performance growth through 2025. The sector is also anticipated to see stable growth in telecom operators' performance and a shift in capital expenditure towards intelligent computing [7] - **Automotive Sector**: - The automotive industry index showed a relative increase of 12.51% compared to the CSI 300 index in Q1 2025. The market is driven by policies supporting vehicle upgrades, leading to high sales growth. The proportion of automotive stocks in public fund holdings reached a historical high of 3.47%, with continuous increases over five quarters [8] - The upcoming Shanghai Auto Show is expected to showcase numerous new energy vehicles, likely boosting consumer purchasing enthusiasm and sustaining high market activity in the automotive sector [8]

Group 1: Cloud Computing and AI Infrastructure - The outlook for capital expenditure from cloud giants is positive, with significant growth observed in core companies such as optical modules and copper connections in Q1 [1][2] - Google's Q1 2025 report indicated a 28% year-on-year increase in cloud revenue, with capital expenditure reaching $17.2 billion (up 43% year-on-year) and an expected annual capital expenditure of $75 billion [1] - Amazon clarified that its recent adjustments in data center leasing are part of routine capacity management and do not indicate a reduction in overall data center construction plans [1] Group 2: Domestic Computing Power and AIDC Sector - The AIDC sector is driven by expectations as new capacity investments take time to convert into revenue, with significant growth in fixed assets and construction projects reported by companies like Runze Technology and Aofei Data [3] - Changes in H20 sales regulations are expected to accelerate the adoption of domestic computing power in the second half of the year, with companies like Ascend, Haiguang, and Cambricon being highlighted as key players [3] Group 3: Optical Communication and Copper Connection - Strong capital expenditure is leading to high certainty in performance for sectors such as optical modules, PCB, copper connections, and power supplies, with companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng reporting substantial profit increases [2] - In the copper connection sector, companies like Wolong Nuclear Materials and Dingtong Technology reported year-on-year profit increases of 39% and 212%, respectively [2] Group 4: Military Information Technology - The recovery of orders in military information technology is notable, with satellite internet projects expected to drive demand for new satellite payloads and ground terminal equipment [4] Group 5: Recommended Stocks - Key stocks to watch in the optical communication sector include Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Shijia Photon [5] - In the copper connection sector, recommended stocks include Wolong Nuclear Materials and Dingtong Technology [6] - For domestic computing power, companies like Cambricon and Haiguang are highlighted, while in military information technology, stocks such as Chengchang Technology and Zhenlei Technology are recommended [6]