中国发展网讯2025年第三季度，青岛市粮油副食品市场供应充足。监测数据显示，受供求关系和季节性 等因素影响，本季度部分粮油、生猪猪肉价格环比小幅下跌，鸡蛋、蔬菜价格环比均有不同幅度上涨。 部分粮油价格环比小幅下跌 大米(一级长粒)季度平均价格为3.26元(每500克，下同)，环比持平，同比下跌2.11%；面粉(特一粉)季度 平均价格为2.37元，环比下跌1.67%，同比下跌0.58%。 生猪季度平均价格为7.09元,环比下跌3.70%，同比下跌28.01%。根据市场表现分析，七月上旬生猪价格 持续低位运行导致养殖端惜售情绪增强，同时冻肉收储政策对猪价形成支撑，导致猪价低位反弹。中下 旬因高温增加疫病风险，养殖端出栏节奏加快，供应有所增长，但需求端持续疲软，导致生猪价格震荡 走低。八月青岛市生猪市场猪源充足，高温天气持续抑制猪肉消费，猪肉产品订单持续低迷，市场交易 清淡，猪价承压下行。九月随着天气转凉，开学季集团采购叠加双节备货临近，生猪市场需求逐步复 苏，但因供给端压力较大，市场供大于求局面延续，导致猪价承压继续下滑。 受生猪价格变动影响，本季度猪肉价格随之下跌，五花肉季度平均价格为15.42元，环比下跌1. ...

农产品板块研发报告 鸡蛋 10 月报 | 第一部分 | 前言概要 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 | 2 | | | 【市场展望】 | | 2 | | 【策略推荐】 | 2 | | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 3 | | | 一、行情回顾 | | 3 | | 二、基本面情况 | | 3 | | 第三部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 8 | | | 免责声明 | | 8 | 最近市场走货开始有所放缓，个别地区仍有一定节日备货影响走货尚 可。根据当前基本面来看，短期蛋价反弹主要受双节备货影响，但近期随着 节日备货的结束，鸡蛋现货价格开始有所回落。 期货方面来看，虽然供应端压力较大且现货价格已经开始下跌，但是当 前整个期货近月价格相对偏低且持仓量仍然较大，预计临近限仓盘面波动较 大，期货价格不一定跟随现货价格下跌。 【策略推荐】 2025 年 9 月 26 节前备货进入尾声 蛋价或将承压走弱 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 9 月鸡蛋现货价格走势偏强，主产区均价最高涨至 3.81 元/斤附近后随 着旺季备货逐渐进入尾声开始有企稳迹象，主销区涨至 3.82 元/斤附近后有 所稳定 ...

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Eggs [1] - Report date: September 17, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Egg futures contracts 2510, 2511, and 2512 all declined, with the 2511 contract down 0.86%. The main producing areas' average egg price was 3.76 yuan/jin, up 0.10 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the main consuming areas' average price was 4.00 yuan/jin, up 0.07 yuan/jin [7]. Core View - After the weakest summer peak season in recent years, the spot market has stabilized and rebounded. The futures market rose today to catch up after the weekend's strong spot market. However, supply pressure is difficult to ease in the short - term, and there may be fluctuations after price increases. It is recommended to take profit on long positions at high prices. The near - month 10 contract may enter the delivery month with a high discount. The rebound space should not be overestimated, and the operation of subsequent contracts needs to focus on elimination and replenishment data [8]. Group 3: Industry News - The inventory of laying hens is on an upward trend. As of the end of August, the monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.365 billion, a 0.7% month - on - month increase and a 6.0% year - on - year increase. The monthly hatch of layer chicks in August was about 39.81 million, a decrease from July and a significant decrease compared with the same period in 2024 [9]. - The weekly chicken culling volume has been increasing since August, and as of September 4, the average age of culled chickens was 495 days, 1 day earlier than the previous week and 11 days earlier than the previous month [10]. Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides data on the monthly inventory of laying hens in China, egg - chicken farming profits, egg 10 - contract basis, and egg 12 - 02 spread, etc. [16][11]

Core Viewpoint - The CDC has reported a salmonella outbreak linked to contaminated eggs, with nearly 100 infections across multiple states, prompting a recall from the implicated company "Country Eggs" [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Outbreak Details - A total of 95 individuals from 14 states have been infected with the same strain of salmonella, with 18 requiring hospitalization and no reported fatalities [1] - The majority of cases are concentrated in California [1] Company Response - "Country Eggs" announced a recall on August 27 for eggs potentially contaminated with salmonella, primarily distributed to supermarkets and food distributors in California and Nevada [1] Public Health Advisory - The CDC advises the public against consuming the recalled eggs and recommends thorough cleaning of surfaces that may have come into contact with the eggs [1] - Symptoms of salmonella infection typically include diarrhea, fever, and abdominal cramps, appearing 6 hours to 6 days after exposure [1] - Most patients recover within 4 to 7 days, but young children, the elderly, and immunocompromised individuals are at higher risk for severe illness [1]

Report Overview - Report Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Egg [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure in the egg market this year is significant, with the peak - season price callback reaching nearly 0.5 yuan/jin, compared to the usual 0.2 - 0.3 yuan/jin. The logic of price increase during the peak season is weakening, causing continuous declines in near - month contracts. The near - month 09 contract has squeezed out the premium and fallen below 3200 points. The futures market sentiment is extremely low. The near - month contracts may still be bearish in the long - term, and there are risks in taking long positions. A fundamental inflection point may appear in the late fourth quarter if the low egg prices are reflected in subsequent replenishment data [8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The prices of egg futures contracts 2509, 2510, and 2511 all declined. The 2509 contract fell 2.91% to 3098, the 2510 contract fell 2.51% to 3113, and the 2511 contract fell 2.64% to 3208. The national egg price rose, with the average price in the main production areas at 3.28 yuan/jin and in the main sales areas at 3.47 yuan/jin, both up 0.17 yuan/jin from the previous day [7]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: The peak - season price increase logic has weakened due to supply pressure and cold - storage egg outflows. The near - month 09 contract has squeezed out the premium. The futures market sentiment is low. The near - month contracts may be bearish in the long - term, and long - position opportunities are risky. A fundamental inflection point may appear in the late fourth quarter [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **In - production Laying Hens**: The inventory of in - production laying hens is on the rise. As of the end of July, the monthly inventory was about 1.356 billion, a 1.2% month - on - month increase and a 6.2% year - on - year increase [9]. - **Chick Hatchlings**: In July, the monthly hatchling volume of sample enterprises was about 39.98 million, down from 40.75 million in June and 41.68 million in the same period in 2024. The decline in July was the first year - on - year decrease this year [9]. - **Hen Culling**: From the first to the third week of August 14, the national hen culling volume showed a downward trend, and the current absolute value is close to the level of the previous three years. As of August 14, the average culling age was 506 days, unchanged from the previous week and one day later than last month [10]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the basis of the egg 09 contract, the price difference between the egg 09 and 10 contracts, the average price in the main production areas, the seasonal trend of the egg 09 contract, the monthly inventory of in - production laying hens in China, and the egg - chicken breeding profit [12][13][16].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Eggs Daily Report" [2] - Date: July 30, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - JD01 closed at 3636, down 7 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3480, up 5; JD09 closed at 3570, down 6 [3] - 01 - 05 spread closed at 156, down 12; 05 - 09 spread closed at -90, up 11; 09 - 01 spread closed at -66, up 1 [3] - 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.64, down 0.01; 01 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.19, down 0.01 [3] Spot Market - Main producing area average price was 3.25 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day; main selling area average price was 3.43 yuan/jin, unchanged [3][6] - National mainstream prices were mostly stable, with some regions showing small fluctuations [6] Profit Calculation - Average price of culled chickens was 5.81 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan/jin; average price of chicks was 3.21 yuan/feather, up 0.04 yuan/feather [3] - Egg - laying hen profit was 18.80 yuan/feather, down 0.13 yuan/feather from the previous day [3] Group 3: Fundamental Information - In June, the national laying hen inventory was 1.34 billion, an increase of 60 million from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 6.7% [7] - In June, the monthly chick output of sample enterprises was 40.75 million, a month - on - month decrease of 9% and a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [7] - From July to October 2025, the estimated laying hen inventories are 1.349 billion, 1.353 billion, 1.351 billion, and 1.343 billion respectively [7] - From July 18 - 24, the national main producing area culled chicken slaughter volume was 13.38 million, a decrease of 11% from the previous week [7] - As of July 24, the average culling age of culled chickens was 506 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week [7] - As of July 24, the national representative selling area egg sales volume was 8032 tons, an increase of 1.8% from the previous week [7] - As of July 24, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.91 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from the previous week; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.04 days, unchanged [7] - As of July 24, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.03 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.45 yuan/jin from the previous week; on July 25, the expected profit of egg - laying hen farming was 13.97 yuan/feather, an increase of 2.06 yuan/feather from the previous week [8] Group 4: Trading Logic - Recent egg prices have stabilized at the current level, and spot prices are expected to strengthen seasonally. After the plum - rain season and with pre - Mid - Autumn Festival food factory stocking, prices are expected to rise after reaching the bottom, but the increase may be limited due to the current loose production capacity [10] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider building long positions in the September contract when the safety margin is high [11] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [11] - Options: Sell put options [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The recent egg price has stabilized at the current level, and the spot price is expected to strengthen seasonally. After the plum - rain season, the price is expected to bottom out and gradually rise during the pre - Mid - Autumn Festival food factory stocking period. However, considering the current relatively loose production capacity, the increase may be limited [9] 3. Summary according to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Information - The average price in the main producing areas today is 3.26 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main selling areas is 3.43 yuan/jin, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day. The national mainstream price is generally stable today [6] - In June, the national laying hen inventory was 1.34 billion, an increase of 60 million from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. The monthly hatchling volume of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises in June was 40.75 million, a month - on - month decrease of 9% and a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. Without considering delayed culling and concentrated culling, the estimated laying hen inventories from July to October 2025 are 1.349 billion, 1.353 billion, 1.351 billion, and 1.343 billion respectively [7] - From July 25th, the national main producing area laying hen culling volume was 13.38 million, a decrease of 11% from the previous week. The average culling age of culled hens in the week of July 24th was 506 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week [7] - As of July 24th, the egg sales volume in national representative selling areas was 8032 tons, a 1.8% increase from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.91 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.04 days, remaining unchanged from the previous week [7] - As of July 24th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.03 yuan/jin, a recovery of 0.45 yuan/jin from the previous week. On July 25th, the expected profit of laying hen farming was 13.97 yuan/feather, an increase of 2.06 yuan/jin from the previous week [8] - Today, the national culled hen price is stable, and the average price in the main producing areas is 5.77 yuan/jin, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [8] 3.2 Trading Logic - The recent egg price has stabilized at the current level, and the spot price is expected to strengthen seasonally. After the plum - rain season, the price is expected to bottom out and gradually rise during the pre - Mid - Autumn Festival food factory stocking period. However, considering the current relatively loose production capacity, the increase may be limited [9] 3.3 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Consider building long positions in the September contract when the safety margin is high [10] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10] - Options: Sell put options [10]

Report Overview - Report Date: July 22, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Egg [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The egg price bottomed out last week and then rose significantly, officially entering the summer peak season. The current market is in the first wave of rapid price increases. Based on historical data, the average spot price of eggs in the producing areas during the peak season of the third quarter this year is expected to reach 4.30 yuan/jin, with a minimum average of 3.77 yuan/jin. The valuation of the 09 contract is slightly lower than the average expected increase during the peak season. A short - term bullish approach is recommended, but long positions should be traded in a phased manner to avoid over - exposure [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The price of eggs in the national market rose today. The average price in the main producing areas was 3.18 yuan/jin, up 0.19 yuan/jin from yesterday, and the average price in the main consuming areas was 3.41 yuan/jin, up 0.22 yuan/jin from yesterday. The 09 contract rose 0.64%. For specific contract data, the 2508 contract closed at 3593, up 80 or 2.28%; the 2509 contract closed at 3636, up 23 or 0.64%; the 2510 contract closed at 3410, up 37 or 1.10% [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: A short - term bullish approach is recommended, but long positions should be traded in a phased manner to avoid over - exposure due to the potential impact of cold - stored eggs on the market after a sharp price increase [8]. 2. Industry News - **Laying Hen Inventory**: As of the end of June, the monthly inventory of laying hens in the country was about 1.34 billion, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 6.8%, showing an upward trend for six consecutive months [9]. - **Chick Hatchling Volume**: In June, the monthly hatchling volume of chicks in sample enterprises was about 40.75 million, slightly less than 44.98 million in May and slightly higher than 39.98 million in the same period in 2024. The replenishment volume has declined for two consecutive months, mainly due to seasonal factors [9][10]. - **Hen Culling Volume**: In the three weeks up to July 11, the national hen culling volumes were 16.27 million, 17.14 million, and 18.41 million respectively. The culling volume gradually recovered after May, reached a phased peak in June, and then declined slightly due to expectations of the summer peak season, but the absolute value was still slightly higher than the levels of the previous three years. As of July 17, the average age of culled hens was 505 days, one day later than last week and four days earlier than last month [10]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the monthly inventory of laying hens in China, egg production area average price, 08 contract basis, 08 - 09 spread, 08 seasonal trend, and egg - laying hen farming profit, etc. [14][17][13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The current profit per catty of eggs is in a state of loss or flat. It is expected that the downward space of the futures price on the disk is relatively limited. The upward space of the contracts in August and September in the second half of the year will depend on the future volume of culled chickens. If the volume of culled chickens remains high, the upward space is relatively large; if the volume of culled chickens fails to maintain, the contracts in August and September may fluctuate slightly stronger [9]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Market Data - **Futures Market**: JD01 closed at 3630, down 3 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3401, down 15; JD09 closed at 3678, down 6. The 01 - 05 spread was 229, up 12; the 05 - 09 spread was -277, down 9; the 09 - 01 spread was 48, down 3. The ratios of 01, 05, and 09 eggs to corn and soybeans all showed slight increases [3]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.66 yuan per catty, and in the main selling areas was 2.90 yuan per catty, both remaining unchanged from the previous day. The average price of culled chickens was 4.68 yuan per catty, also unchanged [3]. - **Profit Calculation**: The profit per chicken was 33.58 yuan, up 43.90 from the previous day. The average price of culled chickens was 4.68 yuan, unchanged; the average price of chicken seedlings was 3.21 yuan, up 0.04; the price of egg - chicken vaccines was 3 yuan, unchanged. The average price of corn was 2437 yuan, unchanged; the average price of soybean meal was 0, down 2930; the price of egg - chicken compound feed was 1.71 yuan, down 0.88 [3]. 2. Fundamental Information - **Egg Price**: The average price of eggs in the main producing areas and main selling areas remained stable. The mainstream prices across the country mostly remained stable, with egg prices continuing to fluctuate and consolidate, and the sales volume was average [6]. - **In - production Laying Hen Inventory**: In June, the national in - production laying hen inventory was 1.34 billion, an increase of 0.06 billion from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. It is estimated that the in - production laying hen inventory from July to October 2025 will be approximately 1.349 billion, 1.353 billion, 1.351 billion, and 1.343 billion respectively [7]. - **Chicken Seedling Output**: In June, the monthly output of laying - hen seedlings of sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information (accounting for about 50% of the country) was 40.75 million, a month - on - month decrease of 9% and a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [7]. - **Culled Chicken Data**: In the week of June 27, the number of culled chickens in the main producing areas was 18.41 million, a decrease of 6% from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens in the week of June 26 was 508 days, a decrease of 1 day from the previous week [7]. - **Egg Sales Volume**: As of the week of June 26, the egg sales volume in the representative selling areas was 7937 tons, an increase of 5% from the previous week [8]. - **Inventory Data**: As of the week of June 26, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.12 days, an increase of 0.1 days from the previous week; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.22 days, an increase of 0.18 days from the previous week [8]. - **Profit Data**: As of June 26, the average weekly profit per catty of eggs was -0.41 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.08 yuan per catty from the previous week. On June 20, the expected profit of laying - hen farming was 14.6 yuan per chicken, a decrease of 0.09 yuan per catty from the previous week [8]. 3. Trading Logic The current profit per catty of eggs is in a state of loss or flat. It is expected that the downward space of the futures price on the disk is relatively limited. The upward space of the contracts in August and September in the second half of the year will depend on the future volume of culled chickens [9]. 4. Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: Consider building long positions in the far - month August and September contracts when the rainy season is about to end and the safety margin is high. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see. - **Options**: Sell put options [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The overall supply of eggs is expected to remain sufficient, with a high inventory of laying hens. After the egg price has dropped to the current level, it shows signs of stabilization recently. It is recommended to close out the previous short positions and wait and see [10]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Fundamental Information - **Price and Market Conditions**: The average price in the main producing areas today is 3.01 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous trading day. The average price in the main selling areas is 3.2 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.4 yuan/jin from the previous trading day. Most of the mainstream egg prices across the country remained stable today [6]. - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In April, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.329 billion, an increase of 0.11 billion from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. Without considering delayed culling and concentrated culling, the estimated inventory of laying hens from May to August 2025 is approximately 1.332 billion, 1.337 billion, 1.345 billion, and 1.349 billion respectively [7]. - **Chick Hatch and Culling**: In April, the monthly chick hatch volume of sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information (accounting for about 50% of the country) was 46.985 million, a month - on - month increase of 1.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. From May 16th, the weekly culling volume of laying hens in the main producing areas was 18.56 million, an increase of 7.5% from the previous week. The average culling age of culled hens in the week of May 15th was 534 days, a decrease of 1 day from the previous week [7]. - **Egg Sales and Inventory**: As of the week of May 15th, the egg sales volume in the representative selling areas was 8716 tons, an increase of 1.4% from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.92 days, a decrease of 0.27 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1 day, a decrease of 0.33 days from the previous week [8]. - **Profit**: As of May 16th, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.12 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous week. On May 9th, the expected profit of laying hen farming was 20.15 yuan/hen, an increase of 0.8 yuan/jin from the previous week. Today, the average price of culled hens in the main producing areas was 5.03 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous trading day [8][9]. II. Trading Logic The overall supply of eggs is expected to remain sufficient, and the inventory of laying hens is high. After the egg price has dropped to the current level, it shows signs of stabilization recently. It is recommended to close out the previous short positions and wait and see [10]. III. Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: Wait and see [11]. - **Arbitrage**: Consider going long on the August contract and short on the September contract [12]. - **Options**: Wait and see [13].