证券研究报告 点评报告 2026 年 3 月 4 日 一、产业综合组： 据台媒报道，国巨旗下基美（KEMET）传出再度调涨钽质电容产品报价，T523 系列聚合物钽质电容器产品线（KO-CAP）价格调整将自 4 月 1 日起生效，这也 是自去年下半年起，国巨第三度调涨钽电容报价。由于不仅 AI 服务器的 GPU、 ASIC 服务器需要使用较多钽电容，军工、航天领域也大量使用钽电容，产业预 计 2026 年钽质电容恐全年为"卖方市场"。我们认为 KEMET 全球最大的钽质电 容供应商，约占 47%的市场份额，持续上调产品价格说明行业需求已经明显供不 应求。目前国内被动元件的上市公司整体估值相对存储、半导体等相对较低， 叠加行业景气上行，因此看好相关产业的投资机会。 深圳佰维存储 688525.SH 昨日发布了 2026 年 1 月-2 月业绩预告的自愿性披露公 告，1~2 月实现营业收入 40~45 亿元，同比增长 340%至 395%，实现归母净利润 15~18 亿元，同比增加 922%至 1086%。1-2 月股份支付费用约为 3,260.63 万元。 和去年四季度单季度净利润约 8 亿元相比，本次预告的净利 ...

我是芯片超人花姐，入行20年，有50W+芯片行业粉丝。 有很多不方便公开发公众号的， 关于芯片买卖、关于资 源链接等， 我会分享在朋友圈 。 扫码加我本人微信 2025年全年 ，国巨 成长主要由 高阶产品 带动，表现优于标准品，在 AI 相关应用领域尤为显 著。 被动元件大厂国巨 近日公布了2025 年 第四季度及全年 财报 。 第四季营收359.68亿元 （新台币，下同） 、季增8.7%、年增19.9% （若以美元换算，季增 5.2%、年增24.8%） 。 2025年 全年营收1329.30 亿 元、年增9.3% (以美元计算年增 12.5%) ， 创新高 。 国巨指出，去年第四季营收成长主要来自于人工智能以及高阶应用相关产品的需求持续增加，此因 素也优化产品组合，提升获利。目前 AI营收占比成长至13% ，而工业领域、欧洲市场则持续改 善。 与此同时，年初市场上关于国巨"涨价"的信号仍在延续。这两天国巨旗下基美传出再度调涨钽质 电容产品报价，这也是自去年下半年起， 国巨第三度调涨钽电容报价 ； 而 今年1月国巨及旗下 凯美也分别传出过两次涨价。 值得关注的是，国巨在 近期的 法说会上进一步"拆解"了成长结 ...

Summary of Conference Call for Shunluo Electronics Industry Overview - The inductor market is experiencing price increases primarily driven by cost transmission rather than demand, differing from previous cycles driven by demand [2][4] - The MLCC (Multi-layer Ceramic Capacitor) market does not currently show clear signs of large-scale price increases [2][4] - Consumer electronics demand is impacted by rising storage prices, with weak demand in mid-to-low-end smartphones, while high-end smartphones are less affected [2][4] - AI-related demand is strong, displacing traditional demand, presenting opportunities for domestic companies to adapt to shifting demand structures [2][5] Company Performance and Financials - Overall operational capacity is normal, with some product series potentially facing shortages, requiring dynamic observation of demand fluctuations in 2026 [2][5] - Gross margin for Q4 2026 is expected to exceed that of Q4 2024, primarily due to one-time factors affecting 2024 [2][5] - The company has initiated price negotiations due to cost pressures from rising precious metal prices, but transmission to downstream customers will take time [2][5] Product and Market Insights - The AIoT (Artificial Intelligence of Things) segment is expected to grow, driven by applications in low-value products like toys and robots, positively impacting consumer electronics demand [2][7] - The inductor business is anticipated to accelerate in 2026, contingent on the rollout pace of module customers in CSP (Chip Scale Package) projects [2][8] - Demand for tantalum capacitors is increasing due to AI servers, GPUs, CPUs, and storage ESSD (Enterprise Solid State Drive) requirements, leading to a phase of supply shortages in the industry [2][8] Customer and Market Dynamics - The company has made progress with major North American consumer electronics clients, expecting to enter mass delivery in the second half of 2026 [3][8] - Domestic computing clients are projected to see significant demand growth, with one major server client expected to triple its demand [4][24] - The company is focusing on new product introductions and enhancing the value of supplied materials to mitigate demand fluctuations caused by rising storage prices [6][24] Competitive Landscape - TDK is a major competitor in the automotive sector, and recent customs scrutiny may create opportunities for domestic alternatives [4][10] - The automotive business is expected to maintain double-digit growth, driven by new customer acquisitions and product readiness [11][12] Challenges and Strategic Responses - The company has not engaged in hedging for precious metals due to unpredictable price fluctuations, focusing instead on cost transmission and internal measures to mitigate impacts on profit margins [13][21] - Inventory levels have risen due to proactive material procurement in response to cost trends and anticipated product line demands [22] Future Outlook - The tantalum capacitor market is expected to see accelerated adoption in 2026, with potential for better-than-expected growth due to industry shortages [9][21] - The company is cautious in its capacity expansion plans, aligning production with actual customer demand while ensuring readiness for future orders [20][21] - The overall growth outlook for AI server and data center businesses remains strong, with expectations at least matching industry growth rates [23]

Core Viewpoint - The MLCC (Multi-Layer Ceramic Capacitor) market is experiencing a significant shift, driven by a surge in AI demand and supply chain restructuring, particularly due to restrictions on Japanese suppliers like TDK, which opens opportunities for Chinese manufacturers [2][6][12]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The passive component sector, particularly MLCC, has seen a price increase of nearly 20% due to rising demand from AI applications, with major players like Murata considering price hikes [2][3]. - AI servers require significantly more MLCCs compared to traditional servers, with demand for AI servers reaching approximately 20,000 MLCCs per unit, compared to 2,200 for general servers [3]. - The high-end MLCC market is characterized by a supply shortage, with major manufacturers operating at over 80% capacity, and Murata's production levels reaching 90-95% [4][5]. Group 2: Supply Chain Changes - TDK's inclusion on a watch list by the Chinese Ministry of Commerce indicates stricter controls on rare earth materials, potentially disrupting its production capabilities and creating a supply gap in the high-end MLCC market [2][6]. - The restrictions on TDK could lead to a "shortage crisis" in the automotive and industrial supply chains, especially as demand for high-end MLCCs continues to rise [6]. Group 3: Opportunities for Chinese Manufacturers - Chinese MLCC manufacturers are positioned to fill the market gap left by TDK, leveraging their access to local resources and established supply chains [8][9]. - Companies like Fenghua Advanced Technology and Sanhui Group have made significant technological advancements, enabling them to produce high-end MLCCs that meet international standards [9][10]. - The market for MLCCs is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting a global market size of 140.8 billion yuan by 2028, with Chinese market share exceeding 50% [12]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is shifting, with Chinese firms transitioning from being alternative suppliers to primary providers, driven by the need for supply chain stability among clients [11][12]. - Major Chinese manufacturers are expanding their production capacities and entering global supply chains, with Fenghua Advanced Technology and Micro Capacitor Technology achieving significant market penetration [12][13]. - The technological advancements and increased production capabilities of Chinese firms are expected to enhance their market share in the high-end MLCC sector, challenging the dominance of Japanese manufacturers [9][13].

会议助理: 大家好，欢迎大家参加 AI 加通胀系列 MLCC 专家交，线上会议。目前所有参会人员均处 于经营状态，下面有请主讲老师开始发言，谢谢。 王心怡 华泰证券电子分析师: 那各位线上投资人，大家晚上好。欢迎大家来参加我们这个 AI 加通胀系列的 MACC 专场 的专家交流。我是华泰电子研究员王欣怡。那在会议开始前，其实我们也再重申一下对于 整个 MLC C 最新看到的一些变化吧。就确实是在春节期间，观测到包含村田和三星电机 在内的一些日韩大厂对于涨价的这个事情的口风，确实是发生了一些扭转然后另外就是渠 道现货价也在春节期间迎来了一些继续的上涨。那这个从海外的这些催化来看的话，其实 是进一步加深了大家对于台系，包括大陆的公司后续跟涨的一个预期的。 然后另外一个层面就是从这个 AI 相关，包含 AI 在内的吧，这些高端需求来看，确实是今 年全年还是非常的旺盛。那这个对于非 AI 的高容，以及说一些中低端产能的挤占，可能 也是短期大家比较关心的事情。所以我们今天也是特别邀请到了台系的被动元件大厂的资 深专家，然后来给我们做这样一个专场分享。专家您好，请问能听到吗？ 台系被动元件大厂资深专家: 能听到，很清楚。 ...

Group 1 - The MLCC (Multi-Layer Ceramic Capacitor) sector is experiencing significant activity, with notable stocks such as Fenghua Advanced Technology reaching the daily limit increase [1] - Other companies in the sector, including SanHuan Group, Dali Kape, Guoci Materials, Jiemai Technology, Boqian New Materials, and Hongda Electronics, are also showing substantial gains [1]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion centers around the impact of AI on various industries, particularly in the electronics sector, highlighting how traditional capacities are being squeezed by AI demands [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Resource Competition Due to AI** - AI is causing a direct squeeze on traditional capacities across several industries, leading to resource competition [1]. 2. **Storage Industry** - High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) is occupying DRAM capacity, with HBM consuming wafer capacity at a multiple of standard DRAM [1]. 3. **Electronic Fabric** - Low-dielectric constant (low-dk) and low Coefficient of Thermal Expansion (low-cte) materials are taking over the production capacity of 7628, thin, and ultra-thin electronic fabrics due to challenges in crucible methods and long ordering cycles for weaving machines [1]. 4. **Fiber Optics** - AI data centers are consuming fiber optic cable capacity, particularly G.652D loose fiber, due to a shortage of optical preform rods [1]. 5. **CTE Electronic Fabric and Substrates** - ABF substrates are taking over BT substrates, influenced by shared production lines and strict supply chain requirements from companies like Apple [2]. 6. **Copper Clad Laminate (CCL)** - M7, M8, and M9 products are occupying mid to low-end copper clad laminate capacity, with switching costs affecting production efficiency [2]. 7. **CPU Production** - AI servers are taking up consumer-grade CPU capacity, while HBM is squeezing logic chip capacity due to insufficient wafer manufacturing and advanced packaging capacity [2]. 8. **Copper Foil** - High Voltage Low Profile (HVLP) copper foil is taking over standard foil capacity, as production resources are prioritized for high-end products [2]. 9. **Testing and Packaging** - Advanced packaging technologies like CoWoS are occupying traditional testing and packaging capacities, with long expansion times and high costs for packaging facilities [2]. 10. **Electricity Demand** - AI data centers are increasing the load on industrial and residential electricity, leading to power shortages [3]. 11. **Passive Components** - AI servers are consuming high-capacitance, low-loss capacitor materials, impacting the availability of conventional components [3]. 12. **Power Supply** - Titanium-grade AI server power supplies are taking over general server and PC power supply capacity, constrained by high-power components and aging test setups [3]. 13. **PCB Production** - Ultra-high layer boards (UBB/OAM) are occupying the capacity of standard, automotive, and industrial control boards due to bottlenecks in pressing processes [3]. 14. **Automated Test Equipment (ATE)** - High-performance GPUs and HBM testing are taking over testing machines for high-end mobile SoCs and analog chips, with overlaps in equipment and skilled labor [3]. Additional Insights - The result of AI's capacity squeeze is a rapid increase in traditional prices, described as "urgent and fast" [3]. - The phenomenon of stockpiling has emerged as a response to the "squeezed capacity," accelerating the interconnected effects across the electronic materials supply chain [3].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the passive components industry, specifically focusing on MLCC (Multi-Layer Ceramic Capacitors) in South Korea and China. The industry is experiencing significant price increases and demand due to various technological advancements and market dynamics [1]. Key Points - **Price Increase**: MLCC spot prices have risen by 20% in both China and South Korea, indicating a strong demand in the market [1]. - **High Production Capacity**: Leading manufacturers in Japan and South Korea are maintaining production capacities above 90%, which is crucial for meeting the growing demand from downstream AI server orders [1]. - **Supply Chain Constraints**: The industry faces supply limitations on critical raw materials such as rare earth elements, which may hinder expansion efforts and lead to order overflow, benefiting domestic manufacturers significantly [1]. - **New Normal of Price Fluctuations**: The alternating price increases in domestic and overseas markets may become a new norm, suggesting a potential for substantial earnings elasticity for companies in this sector [1]. - **Growing Demand from AI and Robotics**: The demand for MLCC is driven by the burgeoning needs of AI servers, humanoid robots, AI smart terminals, autonomous vehicles, low-altitude economy, and commercial aerospace satellites, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the sector [1]. - **Long-term Growth Potential**: MLCC is expected to have a longer and more sustainable growth cycle compared to memory chips, positioning related companies for a super growth phase in the near future [1].

Group 1 - The rapid development of AI technology has a profound impact on the passive component industry, driving the growth of high-end MLCC, chip inductors, tantalum capacitors, and packaging materials [1] - The upstream raw materials such as nickel powder, carbonyl iron powder, metal soft magnetic powder (core), and thermal materials are also experiencing rapid development [1] - Material performance determines device performance, giving advantages to upstream raw material sectors and supporting enterprises in the upstream and downstream industries [1]

Core Viewpoint - The demand for MLCCs is surging due to the AI boom, leading to significant price increases and a positive market response, particularly for high-end products [1][2][5] Group 1: Price Trends and Market Response - Korean MLCC spot prices have risen nearly 20%, with expectations for continued increases in the short term [1][2] - Major MLCC manufacturers like Samsung Electro-Mechanics have seen stock prices rise significantly, with increases of over 11% this year [2] - The revenue of Samsung Electro-Mechanics reached a record high in Q4 2025, with a 22% year-on-year growth in its components division, which includes high-voltage and high-capacity MLCCs [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The explosive growth in AI server demand is driving the need for high-end MLCCs, which are essential for stabilizing power supply and filtering interference signals in electronic devices [2][6] - High-end MLCCs are in short supply, with manufacturers like Murata Manufacturing and Samsung Electro-Mechanics operating at over 80% capacity [2] - AI servers require 3 times more MLCCs than standard servers, leading to a significant increase in demand [2][6] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The top five global MLCC manufacturers, including Murata, Samsung Electro-Mechanics, and Taiyo Yuden, hold over 80% of the market share [4] - Chinese manufacturers have established a relative advantage in the mid-to-low-end MLCC market but are lagging in high-end product development [4] - Domestic companies like Sanhua Group and Fenghua Advanced Technology are accelerating their entry into the high-end market, focusing on sectors such as 5G, AI servers, and automotive electronics [4] Group 4: Industry Outlook and Segmentation - The MLCC industry is currently in an upward cycle, with a historical cycle lasting about 4 to 5 years [5] - The demand for high-end MLCCs is expected to explode due to AI applications, while traditional consumer electronics are facing a downturn [6] - The market for AI servers is projected to grow at an annual rate of 30%, with the MLCC market for AI servers expected to reach 3.3 times its 2025 size by 2030 [6][7]