Core Viewpoint - Guangfa Securities initiates coverage on Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings Limited (00551) with a "Buy" rating, setting a fair value of HKD 19.99 per share, based on projected earnings per share of USD 0.23, 0.26, and 0.28 for FY25-27 [1] Group 1: Manufacturing Business - The manufacturing segment is expected to see revenue and profitability improvements driven by a recovery in the athletic footwear OEM industry in 2026, aided by clearer U.S. tariff policies and a significant year for sports events [2] - The company is enhancing its manufacturing capabilities through various initiatives, including scaling new capacities and improving digital management, which are anticipated to sustain high capacity utilization and improve product mix [2] Group 2: Retail Business - The retail sector is projected to rebound in 2026, supported by sports events and domestic demand expansion policies in China, which are expected to improve the consumption environment [3] - The company is actively pursuing refined operations and a multi-channel retail strategy, aiming to optimize inventory structure and enhance sales performance through better brand and product offerings [3]

Group 1: Core Insights - The company, Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings Limited (00551), is the world's largest athletic shoe manufacturer, with a dual-driven business model of manufacturing and retail [1] - The manufacturing segment is expected to see revenue and profitability improvements due to rising volume and price [1] - The company has a target price of HKD 19.99 per share, with earnings per share projected at USD 0.23, 0.26, and 0.28 for FY25-27 [1] Group 2: Manufacturing Business - The outlook for the athletic footwear OEM industry is positive for 2026, driven by clearer U.S. tariff policies and a recovery in brand client order patterns [1] - 2026 is anticipated to be a "super year" for sports events, which is expected to boost downstream demand [1] - The company is enhancing its manufacturing capabilities through various initiatives, including new capacity ramp-up and digital management improvements [1] Group 3: Retail Business - The retail segment is expected to experience a turnaround in performance, supported by a recovering demand in China's athletic footwear market [2] - The company is actively pursuing refined operations and a multi-channel retail strategy to optimize inventory and improve sales [2] - Collaborations with brand partners are expected to enhance inventory structure through shared platforms [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the company, Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings Limited (00551), is rated as "outperforming the industry" with a target price of HKD 19.46, corresponding to a 10.5 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2026 [1] - According to Euromonitor, the global athletic footwear market is projected to reach USD 167.7 billion in 2024, with a forecasted mid-single-digit growth over the next five years [1] - The report highlights that the global athletic footwear market is concentrated, with the top 10 brands expected to account for 57% of the market share by 2025, and Yue Yuen is the largest athletic footwear manufacturer with over 10% shipment share [1] Group 2 - The company is expected to benefit from a reduction in tariff disruptions by 2026, with major brand clients maintaining controllable inventory levels, and brands like Nike accelerating product innovation [1] - The report anticipates stable growth in manufacturing revenue by 2026, supported by improvements in newly built capacity and resolution of uneven capacity utilization issues [1] - The company is expected to see a rebound in performance, driven by proactive optimization of customer numbers and structure, and the development capabilities linked to high-quality brands [2]

Core Viewpoint - CICC initiates coverage on Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings Limited (00551) with an "outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 19.46, corresponding to a 10.5x P/E ratio for 2026, highlighting the company's position as a global leader in athletic shoe manufacturing and its expansion in the Greater China retail market [1] Group 1: Market Overview - According to Euromonitor, the global athletic footwear market is projected to reach USD 167.7 billion in 2024, with a forecasted mid-single-digit growth over the next five years [1] - The market share among global athletic footwear brands is concentrated, with the top 10 brands expected to account for 57% of the market by 2025 [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Yue Yuen is the largest athletic shoe manufacturer globally, with an estimated shipment volume share exceeding 10% [1] - The company's subsidiary, Pou Chen Corporation, is a leading athletic footwear and apparel retailer in Greater China [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The report anticipates that tariff disruptions may weaken by 2026, and major brand clients' inventory levels are under control, which bodes well for revenue stability [1] - The acceleration of product innovation by brands like Nike, along with the growth of several premium brands, is expected to contribute to stable growth in manufacturing revenue by 2026 [1] - Improvements in previously established production capacity and load balancing issues are expected to enhance manufacturing performance [1] Group 4: Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve a dividend yield of 8.2% by 2026, providing a margin of safety for investors [2] - Earnings per share are projected to be USD 0.23 and USD 0.24 for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a CAGR of -0.4% from 2024 to 2026 [2]

Investment Highlights - Company is initiating coverage on Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings Limited (00551) with an "outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 19.46, corresponding to a 10.5x P/E for 2026 [1] - The global athletic footwear market is projected to reach USD 167.7 billion in 2024, with a mid-single-digit growth expected over the next five years [1] - Yue Yuen is the largest athletic footwear manufacturer globally, holding over 10% of shipment volume, and its subsidiary, Pou Chen Corporation, is a leading retailer in Greater China [1] Business Model and Client Relationships - Company has strong development capabilities for mid-to-high-end footwear, deeply binding with major international brands like Nike and Adidas, and maintaining long-term collaborations with Asics, New Balance, Salomon, and Arc'teryx [2] - The top five clients account for 80-90% of the manufacturing revenue, indicating a concentrated client base [2] - The company is ahead in global production capacity and has diversified its manufacturing bases [2] Market Conditions and Growth Prospects - Manufacturing business is expected to stabilize due to manageable inventory levels among overseas brands and accelerated product innovation, particularly from Nike [2] - Anticipated improvements in production capacity utilization and resolution of previous capacity ramp-up issues are expected to support revenue growth in the manufacturing segment [2] - The company is expected to achieve a dividend yield of 8.2% by 2026, providing a margin of safety for investors [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be USD 0.23 and USD 0.24 for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a CAGR of -0.4% from 2024 to 2026 [3] - Current stock price corresponds to an 8.6x P/E for 2026, with a target price of HKD 19.46 indicating a 23% upside potential [3]

Core Viewpoint - CICC initiates coverage of Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings with an "outperform industry" rating and a target price of HKD 19.46, corresponding to a 10.5x P/E ratio for 2026 [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Yue Yuen is the world's leading manufacturer of athletic footwear and is expanding its retail business in Greater China [1] - The company holds over 10% of the global footwear shipment market share, with its subsidiary, Pou Chen Corporation, being a leading athletic apparel retailer in Greater China [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - According to Euromonitor, the global athletic footwear market is projected to reach USD 167.7 billion in 2024, with a forecasted mid-single-digit growth over the next five years [1] - The market is highly concentrated, with the top 10 brands expected to account for 57% of the market share by 2025 [1] Group 3: Financial Projections - CICC anticipates that tariff disruptions will weaken by 2026, and major brand clients' inventory levels are manageable [1] - Brands like Nike are accelerating product innovation, which, along with the growth of several premium brands, is expected to stabilize revenue growth in the manufacturing segment by 2026 [1] - Improvements in newly built capacity and uneven capacity utilization issues are expected to enhance manufacturing performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - CICC reports that Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings Limited (00551) is a global leader in athletic shoe manufacturing and is expanding its retail business in Greater China, with a diversified global production base. The initial coverage gives an "outperform" rating with a target price of HKD 19.46, corresponding to a P/E of 10.5x for 2026 [1]. Industry Overview - The athletic shoe industry has significant growth potential and is becoming increasingly concentrated. According to Euromonitor, the global athletic shoe market is projected to reach USD 167.7 billion in 2024, with a mid-single-digit growth rate expected over the next five years. The top 10 brands are anticipated to hold a market share of 57% by 2025, indicating a concentrated market structure [2]. - Yue Yuen is the largest athletic shoe manufacturer globally, with an estimated shipment share exceeding 10%. Its subsidiary, Pou Chen Corporation, is a leading athletic apparel retailer in Greater China. For 2024, Yue Yuen's revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders are projected to be USD 818 million and USD 39 million, respectively, with the manufacturing segment accounting for 69% of revenue and 89% of net profit [2]. Competitive Advantages - The company has strong development capabilities for mid-to-high-end footwear, allowing it to establish deep ties with major international brands such as Nike and Adidas, as well as long-term collaborations with other renowned brands like Asics and New Balance. The top five customers are estimated to account for 80-90% of the manufacturing segment's revenue [3]. - Yue Yuen is at the forefront of global capacity expansion, with a diversified layout of production bases [3]. Business Outlook - With overseas brand inventories at manageable levels and accelerated product innovation, the manufacturing segment's performance is expected to stabilize and grow. By 2026, tariff disruptions may lessen, and major brand clients, exemplified by Nike, are focusing on product innovation. This, combined with the growth of several premium brands, is expected to lead to stable revenue growth in the manufacturing segment [4]. - The company is anticipated to improve its performance due to the resolution of previous capacity ramp-up issues and uneven capacity utilization [4]. Market Differentiation - The company is expected to restart growth by actively optimizing its customer base and structure, leveraging its development capabilities and global capacity layout to ensure performance certainty. The forecasted dividend yield for 2026 is 8.2%, providing a margin of safety. Potential catalysts include the recovery of clients and orders exceeding expectations, as well as improvements in production efficiency [5]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to have EPS of USD 0.23 and USD 0.24 for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a CAGR of -0.4% from 2024 to 2026. The current stock price corresponds to a P/E of 8.6x for 2026. Based on a P/E of 10.5x for 2026, the target price is set at HKD 19.46, indicating a 23% upside from the current price, with an initial coverage rating of "outperform" [6].

Core Viewpoint - CICC's report highlights Yuanyuan Group (00551) as a global leader in athletic shoe manufacturing, with a strong presence in the Greater China athletic footwear and apparel retail market, and a diversified global production base. The report initiates coverage with an "outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 19.46, corresponding to a 10.5x P/E for 2026 [1]. Industry Overview - The athletic shoe industry has significant growth potential and is becoming increasingly concentrated. According to Euromonitor, the global athletic shoe market is projected to reach USD 167.7 billion in 2024, with a mid-single-digit growth rate expected over the next five years. The top 10 brands are anticipated to hold a 57% market share by 2025, indicating a concentrated market structure [2]. Company Positioning - Yuanyuan Group is the largest athletic shoe manufacturer globally, with an estimated shipment share exceeding 10%. Its subsidiary, Pou Sheng International, is a leading athletic footwear and apparel retailer in Greater China. In 2024, the company's revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders are projected to be USD 818 million and USD 39 million, respectively, with the manufacturing segment accounting for 69% of revenue and 89% of net profit [2]. Development Capabilities - The company has strong development capabilities for mid-to-high-end footwear, allowing it to establish deep partnerships with major international brands such as Nike and Adidas, as well as long-term collaborations with Asics, New Balance, Salomon, and Arc'teryx. The top five clients are expected to contribute 80-90% of manufacturing revenue [3]. Manufacturing Business Outlook - With overseas brand inventories at manageable levels and accelerated product innovation, the manufacturing business is expected to return to stable growth. The reduction of tariff disruptions by 2026 and the improvement of previously uneven capacity utilization are anticipated to enhance manufacturing performance [4]. Market Differentiation - The company is expected to benefit from actively optimizing its client base and structure, which could lead to renewed growth. The combination of development capabilities and global production layout is projected to provide earnings certainty. The forecasted dividend yield for 2026 is 8.2%, offering a margin of safety. Potential catalysts include the recovery of client orders and better-than-expected production efficiency [5]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to have EPS of USD 0.23 and USD 0.24 for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a CAGR of -0.4% from 2024 to 2026. The current stock price corresponds to an 8.6x P/E for 2026. Based on a 10.5x P/E for 2026, the target price of HKD 19.46 indicates a 23% upside from the current level, with an "outperform" rating initiated [6].

Company Performance - The company reported a total sales decline in retail and wholesale business by high single digits year-on-year for 3QFY26, with direct store gross sales area decreasing by 1.3% compared to the end of August [1] - The performance in 3QFY26 was in line with the company's expectations, reflecting weak terminal demand in the sports footwear and apparel market [1] - Retail channels outperformed wholesale, with offline channels showing slight improvement compared to 1HFY26 due to a low base [1] Inventory and Discounts - The company effectively managed the sales rhythm of new and old products, resulting in a year-on-year decrease in total inventory by the end of November while maintaining good turnover efficiency [1] - Retail discounts deepened year-on-year due to the increased proportion of online channels and promotional environment, although the rate of deepening narrowed compared to the previous quarter [1] Management Outlook - Since December, demand has continued to fluctuate, with management maintaining a cautious outlook due to weather variations and holiday timing issues [1] - Management emphasized the importance of discount and healthy operational management, acknowledging challenges in achieving the annual performance guidance, but expects better results from cost optimization in 2HFY26 [1] - The company plans to continue collaborating with key brands to optimize the market environment and actively expand into running and outdoor segments, aiming to become a one-stop operational partner for brands in the Chinese market [1] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Due to weak demand and ongoing adjustments from key brands, the company has lowered its FY26/27 EPS forecasts by 4% and 13% to 0.20 and 0.23 HKD respectively [2] - The current stock price corresponds to 14 and 12 times FY26/27 P/E, with a target price reduction of 7% to 3.88 HKD, indicating a 24% upside potential from the current price [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing a significant decline in sales across various channels, with offline sales under pressure due to store closures and a fluctuating consumer environment, while e-commerce is expected to continue its growth momentum [1][2]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In FY2026Q3, the company's total sales (including retail and wholesale) decreased by a high single-digit percentage year-on-year, with offline sales facing challenges due to store closures and reduced foot traffic [1]. - The number of offline stores decreased by 332 to 4,688 by the end of FY2026H1, leading to a 13.4% year-on-year decline in gross sales area and a 1.3% quarter-on-quarter decline [1]. - The company anticipates that the net store closures in FY2026H2 will decrease compared to FY2026H1, improving the average quality of stores after the exit of inefficient locations [1]. Group 2: E-commerce and Brand Strategy - The company is expected to maintain growth in e-commerce sales, leveraging its strong operational capabilities and enhancing its online presence through various platforms such as Douyin, Xiaohongshu, and WeChat Mini Programs [2]. - The company is focusing on expanding its brand presence in the outdoor and running segments, collaborating with brands like Norda, Soar, Ciele, and Norr na, and launching the running ecosystem brand Ektos [2]. - Ektos was showcased at the Shanghai Marathon, attracting attention from the running community, indicating a strategic move to meet diverse consumer needs [2]. Group 3: Financial Outlook - The company is projected to see a revenue decline of 7% and a net profit decrease of approximately 4% for FY2026, influenced by a volatile consumer environment and inventory management challenges faced by brands like Nike [2]. - The company’s main brand, Adidas, showed a 6% revenue growth in the Greater China region on a currency-neutral basis for the period of July to September 2025, while Nike's revenue in the same region declined by 16% [3]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.229 billion, 1.379 billion, and 1.533 billion yuan for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 respectively, with a current price corresponding to a FY2026 PE ratio of 14 times, maintaining a "buy" rating [3].