8月CPI同比增速-0.4%，环比0.0%；PPI同比增速-2.9%，环比回升至0.0%。8月通胀保持稳步修复。在猪 周期影响下，食品价格对CPI形成主要拖累，但核心服务价格保持韧性，核心CPI同比大幅回升。反内 卷政策效果在8月PPI数据已有所显现，采掘工业价格动能回正，黑色链条也出现止跌回稳的迹象，同时 大宗商品涨价也带动了中下游加工业，后续观察涨价的持续性与弹性。 CPI：服务表现韧性，食品形成拖累 报告导读：反内卷政策效果在PPI中初步显现，大宗商品涨价也带动了中下游行业的价格修复，传导效 果较为明显。猪周期拖累CPI再次转负，但服务价格韧性，消费价格仍处于稳步回升的通道。 食品拖累主要来源于猪肉和蛋类。猪周期处于磨底阶段，企业去库压力较高，加之8月高温天气需求有 所回落，导致价格出现明显回落。随着9月需求回升，猪价或逐渐走出低位。鸡蛋价格明显回落，产蛋 鸡存栏量处在高位，同时暑假期间需求回落，猪肉价格下跌也对鸡蛋需求存在替代效应。其他食品价格 均符合季节性。 本文来自格隆汇专栏：国泰海通宏观研究，作者：韩朝辉 张剑宇 梁中华 风险提示：地产尾部压力依然存在、消费修复动能不及预期 注：以上内容节选自国 ...

报告导读： 反内卷政策效果在 PPI 中初步显现，大宗商品涨价也带动了中下游行业的价 格修复，传导效果较为明显。猪周期拖累 CPI 再次转负，但服务价格韧性，消费价格仍处 于稳步回升的通道。 8 月 CPI 同比增速 -0.4% ，环比 0.0% ； PPI 同比增速 -2.9% ，环比回升至 0.0% 。 8 月通胀保持稳步修复。在猪周期影响下，食品价格对 CPI 形成 主要拖累，但核心服务价格保持韧性，核心 CPI 同比大幅回升。反内卷政策效果在 8 月 PPI 数据已有所显现，采掘工业价格动能回正，黑色链条也出现止跌 回稳的迹象，同时大宗商品涨价也带动了中下游加工业，后续观察涨价的持续性与弹性。 CPI ：服务表现韧性，食品形成拖累 PPI ：反内卷政策效果初步显现 反内卷政策效果将持续释放。 与 2015 年供给侧改革不同，本轮反内卷政策行动聚焦中下游行业"羊群投资"和盲目扩张造成的产能过剩，政策更加注重指引 企业通过规范竞争淘汰产能，并强化监督地方政府的投资推广行为，而非简单通过行政干预快速达到去产能的目的。这使得本轮价格回升的动能或稍显迟缓， 但基础却更加牢固。 风险提示： 地产尾部压力依然存在、 ...

Core Insights - In August 2025, the national industrial producer price index (PPI) decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, and month-on-month prices remained stable after a 0.2% decline [1] Group 1: Year-on-Year Changes in Industrial Producer Prices - In August, the prices of production materials fell by 3.2%, contributing approximately 2.40 percentage points to the overall decline in the PPI. The mining industry saw a significant price drop of 11.5%, while raw materials and processing industries experienced declines of 4.1% and 2.2%, respectively [2] - Prices of living materials decreased by 1.7%, impacting the overall PPI by about 0.45 percentage points. Food prices fell by 1.7%, while clothing prices remained stable, and general daily goods prices increased by 0.4%. Durable consumer goods prices dropped by 3.7% [2] - In terms of purchase prices, fuel and power prices decreased by 9.7%, chemical raw materials by 6.2%, and both black metal materials and agricultural products by 5.6%. Prices for construction materials and non-metallic products fell by 4.7%, while textile raw materials decreased by 2.0%. Conversely, prices for non-ferrous metal materials and wires increased by 4.7% [2] Group 2: Month-on-Month Changes in Industrial Producer Prices - In August, production material prices increased by 0.1%, contributing approximately 0.08 percentage points to the overall PPI increase. The mining industry saw a 1.3% rise, while raw materials increased by 0.2%, and processing prices remained unchanged [3] - Living material prices decreased by 0.1%, impacting the overall PPI by about 0.03 percentage points. Food prices rose by 0.1%, clothing prices were stable, while general daily goods and durable consumer goods prices fell by 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively [3] - For purchase prices, construction materials and non-metallic products decreased by 1.4%, while chemical raw materials and agricultural products fell by 0.4%. Fuel and power prices increased by 0.7%, and black metal materials rose by 0.6%. Prices for non-ferrous metal materials, wires, and textile raw materials all saw a slight increase of 0.1% [3]

Core Insights - In July 2025, the Producer Price Index (PPI) in Liaoning decreased by 5.8% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - The Industrial Producer Price Index (IPI) also saw a year-on-year decrease of 6.8%, with a slight month-on-month decline of 0.2%, which is a narrowing of the previous month's decline by 0.7 percentage points [1] Price Trends - The prices of production materials decreased by 5.0% year-on-year in July, with the mining industry down by 10.7%, raw materials down by 5.8%, and processing industry down by 3.7% [1] - Consumer goods prices fell by 9.5% year-on-year, with durable goods down by 15.1%, food down by 5.5%, general daily necessities down by 2.2%, while clothing saw a slight increase of 0.1% [1] Raw Material Price Movements - In July, the prices of nine major raw materials showed a mixed trend with two categories increasing and seven decreasing [1] - Textile raw materials increased by 1.7%, and non-ferrous metals and wire materials increased by 1.4% [1] - Conversely, building materials and non-metallic materials decreased by 0.9%, wood and pulp decreased by 1.0%, other industrial raw materials and semi-finished products decreased by 1.1%, chemical raw materials decreased by 7.9%, black metal materials decreased by 8.7%, agricultural and sideline products decreased by 9.9%, and fuel and power decreased by 12.8% [1]

Core Viewpoint - In July 2025, the national industrial producer price index showed a month-on-month decline in both the producer's ex-factory prices and the purchasing prices, indicating a continued downward trend in industrial prices [1][3]. Group 1: Year-on-Year Changes in Industrial Producer Prices - In July, the ex-factory prices of industrial producers decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, while the purchasing prices fell by 4.5% [1][3]. - The average decline from January to July for ex-factory prices was 2.9%, and for purchasing prices, it was 3.2% [1][3]. - The prices of production materials dropped by 4.3%, significantly impacting the overall ex-factory price level [3][7]. Group 2: Month-on-Month Changes in Industrial Producer Prices - In July, the ex-factory prices of industrial producers decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with production materials contributing to a decline of approximately 0.17 percentage points [6][7]. - The purchasing prices of industrial producers fell by 0.3% month-on-month, with notable declines in fuel and power prices by 0.6% and black metal materials by 0.7% [6][7]. Group 3: Breakdown of Price Changes by Category - In the ex-factory price category, the mining industry saw a significant decline of 14.0% year-on-year, while the processing industry experienced a decrease of 3.1% [3][7]. - For purchasing prices, fuel and power prices decreased by 10.8%, and black metal materials dropped by 8.0% [5][7]. - The prices of durable consumer goods fell by 3.5%, while general daily goods saw a slight increase of 0.6% [3][7].

Core Insights - In July 2025, the national industrial producer price index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, while the industrial producer purchase price index (PPPI) fell by 0.3%, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month respectively [1] - Year-on-year, the PPI dropped by 3.6%, and the PPPI decreased by 4.5% [1] - For the average from January to July, the PPI declined by 2.9% compared to the same period last year, and the PPPI fell by 3.2% [1] Price Changes in July - In July, the prices of production materials decreased by 4.3%, contributing approximately 3.20 percentage points to the overall decline in the PPI [3] - The mining industry saw a price drop of 14.0%, while raw materials and processing industries experienced declines of 5.4% and 3.1% respectively [3] - Prices of living materials decreased by 1.6%, impacting the overall PPI by about 0.42 percentage points, with food prices down by 1.8% and durable goods prices down by 3.5% [3] Month-on-Month Price Changes - In July, the production materials prices decreased by 0.2%, affecting the overall PPI by approximately 0.17 percentage points [8] - The mining industry prices fell by 0.2%, raw materials prices decreased by 0.1%, and processing industry prices dropped by 0.3% [8] - Living materials prices also decreased by 0.2%, with food prices remaining stable and durable goods prices declining by 0.6% [8] Purchase Price Changes - In the PPPI, fuel and power prices decreased by 10.8%, black metal materials by 8.0%, and chemical raw materials by 6.5% [7] - Agricultural products prices fell by 4.6%, while construction materials and non-metallic materials prices decreased by 3.8% [7] - However, prices for non-ferrous metal materials and wires increased by 2.8% [7]

Group 1: Year-on-Year Changes in Industrial Producer Prices - In July, the prices of production materials decreased by 4.3%, contributing approximately 3.20 percentage points to the overall decline in industrial producer prices [2] - The mining industry saw a significant price drop of 14.0%, while raw materials and processing industries experienced declines of 5.4% and 3.1%, respectively [2] - Consumer goods prices fell by 1.6%, with food prices down by 1.8% and durable goods prices down by 3.5% [2] Group 2: Month-on-Month Changes in Industrial Producer Prices - In July, the month-on-month prices of production materials decreased by 0.2%, impacting the overall industrial producer price level by approximately 0.17 percentage points [7] - The mining industry prices decreased by 0.2%, while raw materials and processing industries saw declines of 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively [7] - Consumer goods prices also fell by 0.2%, with food prices remaining stable and durable goods prices decreasing by 0.6% [7] Group 3: Industrial Producer Purchase Prices - The purchase prices for fuel and power decreased by 10.8%, while black metal materials and chemical raw materials saw declines of 8.0% and 6.5%, respectively [6] - Prices for agricultural products decreased by 4.6%, and construction materials and non-metallic materials fell by 3.8% [6] - Prices for non-ferrous metal materials and wires increased by 2.8% [6] Group 4: Key Industry Price Changes - The coal mining and washing industry experienced a price drop of 23.0%, while the oil and natural gas extraction industry saw a decrease of 12.6% [10] - The black metal mining industry prices fell by 9.1%, whereas the non-ferrous metal mining industry prices increased by 11.1% [10] - The food manufacturing industry prices decreased by 1.1%, while the beverage and refined tea manufacturing industry prices remained stable [10]

Group 1: Year-on-Year Changes in Industrial Producer Prices - In July, the producer prices for industrial goods saw a decline in production material prices by 4.3%, contributing approximately 3.20 percentage points to the overall decrease in producer prices [3] - The mining industry experienced a significant price drop of 14.0%, while raw material prices fell by 5.4% and processing industry prices decreased by 3.1% [3] - Consumer goods prices decreased by 1.6%, impacting the overall producer price level by about 0.42 percentage points, with food prices down by 1.8% and durable goods prices down by 3.5% [3] Group 2: Month-on-Month Changes in Industrial Producer Prices - In July, the producer prices for industrial goods showed a month-on-month decline in production material prices by 0.2%, affecting the overall producer price level by approximately 0.17 percentage points [7] - The mining industry prices decreased by 0.2%, raw material prices fell by 0.1%, and processing industry prices dropped by 0.3% [7] - Consumer goods prices also saw a decline of 0.2%, with food prices remaining stable and durable goods prices decreasing by 0.6% [7] Group 3: Changes in Purchase Prices of Industrial Producers - In July, the purchase prices for industrial producers indicated a notable decline in fuel and power prices by 10.8%, black metal materials by 8.0%, and chemical raw materials by 6.5% [6] - Agricultural and sideline product prices decreased by 4.6%, while construction materials and non-metallic materials fell by 3.8% [6] - Conversely, prices for non-ferrous metal materials and wires increased by 2.8% [6]

Industrial Producer Price Changes - In July, the industrial producer's ex-factory prices saw a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, with production material prices dropping by 4.3%, contributing approximately 3.20 percentage points to the overall decline [8][9] - The mining industry experienced a significant price drop of 14.0%, while raw material prices fell by 5.4% and processing industry prices decreased by 3.1% [8][9] - Consumer goods prices decreased by 1.6%, with food prices down by 1.8% and durable goods prices down by 3.5% [8][9] Industrial Producer Purchase Price Changes - The purchase prices for industrial producers fell by 4.5% year-on-year, with fuel and power prices decreasing by 10.8% and black metal materials down by 8.0% [10] - Chemical raw materials saw a decline of 6.5%, while agricultural products dropped by 4.6% [10] - In contrast, prices for non-ferrous metal materials and wires increased by 2.8% [10] Monthly Price Changes - Month-on-month, the industrial producer's ex-factory prices decreased by 0.2%, with production materials down by 0.2% and consumer goods prices also declining by 0.2% [7][8] - The mining sector's prices fell by 0.2%, while raw materials and processing industries saw decreases of 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively [7][8] - The purchase prices for industrial producers decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, with notable declines in building materials and non-metallic prices by 1.4% [10]

Core Viewpoint - In June 2025, the national industrial producer price index showed a year-on-year decline of 3.6% for ex-factory prices and a 0.4% month-on-month decline, indicating a continued downward trend in industrial pricing pressures [1]. Group 1: Year-on-Year Changes in Industrial Producer Prices - In June, the ex-factory prices of industrial producers saw a decline in production materials by 4.4%, contributing approximately 3.26 percentage points to the overall decrease in ex-factory prices. The mining industry experienced a significant drop of 13.2%, while raw materials and processing industries saw declines of 5.5% and 3.2%, respectively [3]. - Prices for living materials decreased by 1.4%, impacting the overall ex-factory price level by about 0.35 percentage points. Food prices fell by 2.0%, while clothing prices increased by 0.1%, and general daily goods prices rose by 0.8%. Durable consumer goods prices, however, decreased by 2.7% [3]. Group 2: Month-on-Month Changes in Industrial Producer Prices - In June, the month-on-month ex-factory prices of industrial producers showed a 0.6% decline in production materials, affecting the overall price level by approximately 0.42 percentage points. The mining industry prices decreased by 1.2%, raw materials by 0.7%, and processing industry prices by 0.5% [7]. - Living materials prices saw a slight decline of 0.1%, contributing about 0.02 percentage points to the overall price level decrease. Food prices fell by 0.3%, while clothing prices remained stable, and general daily goods prices increased by 0.1% [7]. Group 3: Changes in Industrial Producer Purchase Prices - In June, the purchase prices for industrial producers showed a significant decline in fuel and power categories by 10.4%, black metal materials by 8.0%, and chemical raw materials by 6.2%. Agricultural products also saw a decrease of 4.2%, while construction materials and non-metallic categories dropped by 2.6% [6]. - The textile raw materials category experienced a decline of 2.4%, while prices for non-ferrous metal materials and wires increased by 2.4% [6].