埃德·亚德尼论"咆哮的二十年代"：黄金和标普500指数将双双冲向10000点。华尔街老将埃德·亚德尼(Ed Yardeni)一直是本十年最乐观的市场叙事之一 ——"咆哮的二十年代"的先行倡导者。他认为，这一时代将由经济韧性、强劲的企业盈利，以及与数字革命和人工智能相关的生产率提升所驱动。在近期一 次访谈中，亚德尼重申了他的两大预测：标普500指数在2026年达到7700点，并在2029年达到10000点。但更引人注目的是他并行的另一个预测：黄金价格也 可能在本十年末达到每盎司10000美元。 个股消息 1. 12月26日(周五)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货涨跌不一。截至发稿，道指期货跌0.19%，标普500指数期货涨0.02%，纳指期货涨0.10%。 | | | | ■ WTI原油 | 2026年2月 | 58.44 | 58.88 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 兴 伦敦布伦特原油 | 2026年2月 | 62.25 | 62.68 | 市场消息 圣诞前日美股双指同创历史新高，投资者关注"圣诞老人行情"会否继续。美国股市周四因圣诞节休市，周三提前收盘且交易活动清淡。预计在新年假期缩 ...

Group 1: U.S. Stock Funds - U.S. stock funds experienced a turnaround with a net inflow of $3.3 billion for the week ending December 10, recovering nearly the $3.52 billion net outflow from the previous week [1] - Sector-wise, U.S. equity sector funds saw a net inflow of $2.81 billion, marking the largest single-week inflow since late October [1] - The metals and mining, industrials, and healthcare sectors performed notably well, attracting net inflows of $672 million, $548 million, and $527 million respectively [1] Group 2: Artificial Intelligence Sector - Despite the overall positive sentiment driven by interest rate cut expectations, investment interest in the artificial intelligence sector has cooled [1] - Oracle's latest earnings guidance fell short of expectations, heightening concerns about the slowing profit growth of AI companies [1] - This indicates that investors are becoming more cautious in evaluating high-valuation tech stocks amidst the easing expectations, shifting focus towards traditional sectors that benefit from the economic cycle and lower interest rates [1] Group 3: Bond Funds - The bond market also saw significant uplift due to interest rate cut expectations, with U.S. bond funds recording a net inflow of $3.49 billion, a substantial increase from the previous week's $291 million [2] - There was a structural shift in fund allocation, with intermediate and short-term investment-grade bond funds receiving a net inflow of $2.61 billion, reaching a seven-week high [2] - Conversely, general domestic taxable fixed income funds experienced a net outflow of $902 million [2] Group 4: Money Market Funds - The money market showed a clear sign of fund redirection, with a net outflow of $4.58 billion after a strong inflow of $105.03 billion the previous week [2] - This shift reflects a typical asset allocation adjustment logic during a monetary policy easing cycle, as investors move funds from low-yield cash assets to riskier assets like stocks and bonds [2]

Group 1: Hong Kong Stocks - LeMo Technology (02539) surged nearly 17%, reaching a new high of 67.8 HKD, over 60% increase from the IPO price of 40 HKD [1] - Baixin An-B (02185) rose over 4% after announcing that its subsidiary completed the registration of the Iberis multi-polar renal artery radiofrequency ablation catheter system in New Zealand, the only product approved for both radial and femoral artery access for renal denervation [1] - Health Road (02587) increased over 2% as it announced plans to repurchase up to 100 million HKD of its shares in the open market, reflecting confidence in its business outlook [1] - Deutsche Bank Tianxia (02418) fell over 8% following a report that revealed 10 shareholders collectively held 98.9% of the company's issued H-shares, leaving only 1.1% for other investors [1] Group 2: Other Notable Stocks - Kailaiying (06821) rose nearly 2% as its Shanghai Fengxian commercial production base officially commenced operations, marking a significant upgrade in its biopharmaceutical CDMO capabilities [2] - Tianyu Semiconductor (02658) rebounded over 12% on its second day of trading, although still down 20% from its IPO price of 58 HKD [2] - Lithium stocks saw gains, with Ganfeng Lithium (01772) up 4.65%, Hongqiao Group (08137) up 2.15%, Tianqi Lithium (09696) up 3.29%, and CATL (03750) up 1.51% [2] - AAC Technologies (02018) rose nearly 2% after Alibaba launched its first self-developed flagship AI glasses, the Quark AI Glasses S1 [2] - Zhou Hei Ya (01458) increased over 5% as it announced the opening of its first overseas brand store in Malaysia on December 5, 2025 [2] Group 3: US Market Highlights - US mining stocks generally rose, with Albemarle (ALB.US) up 5.08% and MP Materials (MP.US) up 0.47%, amid reports of the US government planning to increase its stake in key mineral companies [5] - Paramount Skydance (PSKY.US) fell 9.82% after proposing a buyout of Warner Bros Discovery (WBD.US) at $30 per share, while Netflix (NFLX.US) offered $27.75 per share [5] - Intel (INTC.US) rose 2.25% after announcing it would retain its network and edge computing business, enhancing integration in AI and data center solutions [5] - Netflix (NFLX.US) dropped 2.89% while Warner Bros Discovery (WBD.US) rose 6.28% following Netflix's announcement of a $27.75 per share acquisition offer for Warner Bros [6] - Baidu (BIDU.US) increased by 5% as reports emerged that Kunlun Core is preparing for an IPO in Hong Kong, targeting early 2026 for its application [6]

3. 美银预计标普500指数明年将温和上涨，目标7100点。 1. 美国三大股指期货小幅上涨，纳指期货涨0.06%，标普500指数期货涨0.11%，道指期货涨0.1%。 2. 欧股主要指数齐涨，德国DAX指数涨0.76%，英国富时100指数涨0.09%，法国CAC指数涨0.3%，欧洲 斯托克50指数涨0.36%。 12. 赛富时第三财季经调整EPS超预期，上调全年业绩指引。 13. Snowflake本季业绩指引疲软，AI工具盈利能力遭质疑。 14. 老虎证券Q3营收及non-GAAP净利润均创新高，客户总资产达610亿美元。 6. 欧盟据报计划对Meta启动反垄断调查，WhatsApp集成AI功能成焦点。 7. 英特尔叫停旗下网络与通讯部门出售或分拆计划。 8. 美光将在全球内存供应短缺之际退出消费级内存业务。 9. 诺和诺德据报正在为本月在印度推出糖尿病特效药Ozempic做准备。 10. 美国FTC要求波音在合并前剥离Spirit AeroSystems的部分资产。 11. 力拓将2025年铜产量指引上调至86万-87.5万吨，公布重组战略。 4. 美国国会据报阻止对华销售芯片禁令通过，意味着英伟达游说 ...

特罗特表示："关键在于聚焦对我们来说最大的机遇。如果试图无所不为，最终将一事无成。"据悉，力 拓正在审查的资产包括集团的钛和硼酸盐业务。 力拓指出，将在本十年末之前，每年削减平均运营单位成本4%。其他改进措施包括：通过简化内部运 营、暂停非核心项目和研究，在明年第一季度末前实现6.5亿美元的生产效益提升。 曾掌管力拓铁矿石部门的特罗特旨在精简这个被批评者认为近年来变得臃肿——尤其是辅助职能部门 ——的组织机构。他已削减部门编制，裁减部分高级员工，并着手剥离或关闭非核心业务。 Barrenjoey Markets Pty Ltd.的金属与矿业研究主管格林.劳考克(Glyn Lawcock)表示："他们提及了电站、 海水淡化厂等基础设施的售后回租方案。这存在资本成本套利空间。我认为特罗特的思路是正确的。" 矿业巨头力拓(RIO.US)新任首席执行官西蒙.特罗特(Simon Trott)概述了筹集至多100亿美元以再投资于 核心业务的计划，同时缩减包括锂业务在内的宏大目标，以打造一个专注于铁矿石和铜等核心领域的精 简型矿业公司。 力拓列出了一系列关键的增长和成本削减目标，并表示将通过资产剥离、出售少数股权和重组部分 ...

Group 1: BHP and Anglo-American - BHP Group has decided to abandon its takeover attempt of Anglo-American after Anglo rebuffed its latest bid [1] - BHP's intention was to prevent a merger between Anglo-American and Canada's Tech Resources [1] - Shareholders of Anglo-American and Tech Resources are scheduled to vote on December 9th regarding their merger [1] Group 2: Novo Nordisk and Alzheimer's Trial - Novo Nordisk's phase three trial of semaglutide did not show a statistically significant reduction in Alzheimer's disease progression [2] - Despite some improvements in biomarkers, the trial will be discontinued [2] - Following this news, Novo Nordisk's stock has decreased by $42.36 [2]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved all-time high EBITDA margins of 27% in electronic materials, reflecting improved cost structure and operational performance [5] - Sales increased by approximately 1% year-over-year, with adjusted earnings per share at $1.41, flat compared to the prior year and up 3% sequentially [12][13] - Adjusted EBITDA was $55.5 million, down 2% year-over-year, primarily due to lower volume from equipment downtime in Performance Materials [13][14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Performance Materials reported value-added sales of $157.1 million, down 4% year-over-year, impacted by equipment downtime [14] - Electronic materials saw value-added sales of $79.7 million, up 2% from the prior year and up 7% organically, with EBITDA margins reaching a record 27.1% [15][16] - Precision Optics experienced value-added sales of $27.1 million, up 21% year-over-year, returning to double-digit EBITDA margins [16][17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Semiconductor sales, excluding China, increased by 7% year-to-date, with high-performance memory applications growing over 30% [7] - The defense market saw record bookings up roughly 40% year-to-date, with about $150 million in RFQs being worked on [10] - The commercial space sector has seen a fivefold increase in sales over three years, driven by macro trends in AI and connectivity [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on high-growth markets such as semiconductor, defense, space, and energy, with a strong order book and improved operational performance expected to drive growth [6][11] - Strategic partnerships, such as with Kairos Power and Commonwealth Fusion Systems, are aimed at expanding into new energy solutions [9][25] - The company aims to achieve midterm target margins of 23% and is actively addressing operational reliability issues in Performance Materials [14][44] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in finishing 2025 positively, driven by strong order rates and market demand [11][18] - There is uncertainty regarding the impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning China, which has seen a 20% year-over-year decline in business [71][87] - The company anticipates continued growth in high-demand sectors, despite challenges in the automotive market [56][44] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with a net debt position of approximately $441 million and authorized a new $50 million stock repurchase program [17] - Free cash flow is expected to be roughly 70% of adjusted net income, with strong cash generation year-to-date [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Why didn't the company narrow the full-year outlook range? - Management cited uncertainty around China and potential impacts from the government shutdown as reasons for maintaining the range [24] Question: What financial impact is expected from the new agreement with Commonwealth Fusion Systems? - Initial shipments are expected to contribute a few million this year, with a more significant annualized run rate anticipated next year [25][27] Question: What is the nature of the equipment downtime in Performance Materials? - The downtime was due to issues with equipment in the largest plant, but it has been resolved, and the company expects to catch up on sales in Q4 [35][36] Question: What are the expectations for 2026 growth? - Management is optimistic about growth in key markets, despite challenges in China, and expects to leverage high-growth opportunities [44][46] Question: How is the company addressing operational reliability? - The company is focused on capital improvements and maintenance to minimize future disruptions in Performance Materials [39][40] Question: What is the expected impact of tariffs on financial results? - The China business is down about 20% year-over-year, with some tariff impacts being manageable through pricing strategies [70][71] Question: Will beryllium be stockpiled by the government? - With increased U.S. defense spending, there is a likelihood of increased usage of beryllium, and the company is prepared to meet that demand [95][96]

Market Overview - Japanese and South Korean stock markets experienced declines, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping over 1.0% and SoftBank Group falling more than 10% [1][2] - The Nikkei 225 index reached historical highs recently, influenced by the appointment of Japan's first female Prime Minister, but experts warn of potential long-term risks associated with her economic policies [2] Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices saw significant volatility, with spot gold dropping over 2% before rebounding above $4,070 per ounce, marking a daily decline of approximately 1% [2] - On October 21, spot gold fell below $4,100 per ounce for the first time since October 14, experiencing a single-day drop of $250, or 6.3%, the largest since April 2013 [4] - The silver market also faced pressure, with spot silver dropping over 1.17% [2] Influencing Factors - Market analysts attribute the decline in gold prices to reduced risk appetite, a strengthening dollar, and profit-taking by investors concerned about overvaluation following recent historic highs [5] - The ongoing geopolitical situation, including a joint statement from European leaders supporting negotiations for a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has further diminished safe-haven demand [5] - Despite the recent downturn, long-term factors supporting gold prices, such as central bank purchases, remain intact, with analysts expecting a recovery in gold prices in the coming months [5]

Core Insights - Eurasian Resources Group (ERG) highlights a structural change in the key metals market driven by global energy transition and industrialization in emerging economies, leading to a long-term supply tightness [1][2] Group Overview - ERG is a leading diversified natural resources group headquartered in Luxembourg, with operations in mining, processing, energy, logistics, and sales across Africa, Central Asia, and Brazil [1] Market Outlook - The CEO of ERG, Shukhrat Ibragimov, emphasizes that the demand for copper, aluminum, chromium, and green steel is entering a phase of sustained structural shortage due to accelerating energy transition and industrialization in emerging markets [2] - The company plans to enhance its production system, maximize capacity utilization, and optimize costs as part of a new development direction set to launch by the end of 2024 [2] Commodity Price Trends - Copper prices have rebounded, supported by tightening supply, improved US-China trade relations, and production disruptions, with LME three-month copper prices rising 3% to $11,000 per ton, the highest since May 2024 [2][3] - Aluminum prices are driven by production restriction policies and increasing demand, while the chromium market remains tight on the supply side [3] Strategic Focus - HBI (Hot Briquetted Iron) is identified as a strategic focus for the steel industry, becoming a core component of the green steel supply chain over the next decade, facilitating the industry's low-carbon transition [3]

Core Insights - The performance of metal and mining stocks has made the seven major tech giants in the U.S. stock market appear as stable as U.S. Treasury bonds, according to Goldman Sachs' hedge fund head Tony Pasquariello [1] - Stocks linked to metals like gold, copper, and rare earths have shown significantly higher volatility compared to the historically strong performance of the tech giants [1] - Pasquariello suggests that the seven tech giants may serve as a safer asset against the recent volatility and speculative nature of the metal and mining sectors [1] Market Performance - Gold prices have recently surpassed $4,300 per ounce, while silver has reached a historical high of $54 per ounce [1] - The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS.US) has increased by 17% year-to-date, and Nvidia (NVDA.US) has a market capitalization of $430 billion [1] - The SPDR S&P Metals and Mining ETF has seen a significant increase of nearly 88% during the same period [1] Market Environment - Pasquariello describes the current market environment as one of the most dynamic seen, with both positive and negative trends emerging in recent weeks [2]