Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February, affected by the double impact of the Spring Festival holiday and the rainy season, the nickel ore trading in the Philippines was light and supply was limited. In Indonesia, the tightening of RKAB mining quotas and the approaching of the rainy season and Ramadan restricted supply growth. Overall, the price of nickel ore remained strong [12]. - The price of high - nickel pig iron in February was strong, with the average price rising to 1085 yuan per nickel point. The upstream price support was strong, and the downstream rigid demand procurement drove the price up [12]. - The nickel intermediate product market in February showed a clear differentiation. The supply of MHP was reduced, and the price and nickel coefficient increased. The supply - demand of high - grade nickel matte was weak, and the nickel coefficient remained flat. The price of sulfur, a key auxiliary material, declined [12]. - In February, the nickel price rose slightly due to supply - side disturbances in Indonesia. The domestic social inventory increased by 7391 tons to 76,000 tons. It is expected that the nickel price will be mainly in a weak shock in the short term. The operating range of Shanghai nickel in March is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan per ton, and the operating range of LME 3M contract is 16,000 - 20,000 US dollars per ton. It is recommended to use high - selling and low - buying interval operations [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: The supply of nickel ore in the Philippines was limited, and the supply growth in Indonesia was restricted. The overall price of nickel ore remained strong [12]. - **Nickel iron**: The price of high - nickel pig iron was strong, with the upstream supporting the price and the downstream rigid demand increasing the volume [12]. - **Intermediate products**: The MHP market was in short supply, and the high - grade nickel matte market was weak. The price of sulfur declined [12]. - **Refined nickel**: The price rose slightly in February, the domestic social inventory increased, and the price was expected to be weakly volatile. It was recommended to operate in the range of 130,000 - 160,000 yuan per ton for Shanghai nickel and 16,000 - 20,000 US dollars per ton for LME 3M contract [12]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - The nickel price was in a high - level wide - range shock in February. It fell sharply at the beginning of the month and then rose slightly due to supply - side disturbances in Indonesia. As of February 27, the Shanghai nickel main contract rose 3.46% month - on - month [17]. - The import nickel premium was stable at a low level after the Spring Festival, indicating a loose spot supply [19]. - The nickel iron price rose steadily, the premium of refined nickel over nickel iron returned to normal, and the nickel sulfate price fluctuated with the nickel price [22]. 3. Cost Side - The domestic nickel ore port inventory continued to decline, and the nickel ore price remained strong. The price of 1.6% grade nickel ore in Indonesia rose to 70.24 US dollars per ton, and the price of wet - process ore rose to 27.5 US dollars per ton [27][30]. - In January, the nickel iron output in Indonesia decreased by 15,000 tons month - on - month to 144,000 tons due to the high premium of high - grade nickel matte over nickel iron [33]. - In January, due to the sharp increase in MHP price and the high premium of high - grade nickel matte over nickel iron, the output of MHP and high - grade nickel matte in Indonesia increased significantly [37]. - The intermediate product coefficient price remained at a high level [40][42]. 4. Refined Nickel - In January 2026, the national refined nickel output was 65,000 tons, an increase of 4417 tons compared with December 2025 [47]. - In January 2026, the domestic stainless steel output was 3.032 million tons, an increase of 203,700 tons compared with November, and the inventory level rebounded slightly from a low level [50]. - Global refined nickel inventory continued to increase, mainly in domestic social inventory. As of February 27, the global refined nickel visible inventory was 364,000 tons, an increase of 9073 tons compared with the same period last month [56]. 5. Nickel Sulfate - The supply of nickel sulfate remained stable. The domestic nickel sulfate output was relatively stable, and the import volume increased slightly [61][63]. - The production profit rate of nickel sulfate fluctuated around the break - even point [66]. 6. Supply - Demand Balance - From 2024Q1 to 2026Q4, the global primary nickel supply was generally on the rise, and the demand also showed an upward trend. There was a supply surplus in each period, and the surplus showed an increasing trend [69]. - The supply - demand gap of global refined nickel also showed an increasing trend in general, and the proportion of the supply - demand gap in the overall supply - demand situation was relatively large [69]. - The global refined nickel visible inventory continued to increase [69].

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has announced a significant reduction in nickel mining quotas for 2026, setting it at approximately 260 million tons, a decrease of about 30% from 379 million tons in 2025, which has led to a surge in global nickel prices [1] Nickel Price Surge - Recent data shows that nickel prices have experienced significant volatility due to Indonesian policy changes, with both domestic and international prices rising sharply [2] - On February 11, the Shanghai nickel futures opened at 133,400 CNY/ton, surged to over 140,000 CNY/ton during the day, and closed at 139,400 CNY/ton, marking a daily increase of 4.02% [2] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel also saw a daily increase of over 3%, closing at 17,880 USD/ton on February 11 [2] Market Dynamics - The overall nickel market is currently in a state of oscillation, with strong expectations for supply reduction due to quota cuts, but short-term supply has increased due to prior price rises, leading to a buildup of domestic inventory [5] - Domestic nickel companies have seen significant stock price increases, with companies like Greenmeadow and Shengtun Mining rising by 11.57% and 10.33% respectively over two days [5] Company Responses - Greenmeadow has confirmed that its main nickel suppliers in Indonesia are Merdeka and Hengjaya, with long-term supply agreements in place to secure production needs [6] - Shengtun Mining reported that its core production capacity is concentrated in the smelting sector, with minimal direct impact from quota adjustments, and it maintains a full production status [7] - Weiming Environmental stated that its nickel production lines in Indonesia are not significantly affected by the quota cuts, as they do not hold local mining quotas [8] Regulatory Changes - The Indonesian government has suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses through the OSS platform, particularly affecting restricted products like nickel pig iron and mixed hydroxide precipitate, raising the approval threshold for new smelting projects [8]

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices continue to rise due to supply constraints driven by policy changes and improved macro liquidity expectations, with significant impacts from Indonesia's reduction of nickel ore quotas [1][2]. Supply Side: Clear Contraction - Domestic smelting plants have reduced operating rates due to the Spring Festival holiday, leading to a temporary decrease in nickel iron supply. Indonesia's quota cuts and increased mine maintenance have tightened raw material supplies, pushing up nickel ore prices and supporting nickel iron costs [2]. Demand Side: Inventory Phase-Out - Downstream demand shows structural differentiation. The stainless steel industry is reducing production due to high raw material prices, while new energy battery companies have completed pre-holiday inventory and are now focused on essential purchases. Overall demand has slowed but remains stable enough to support prices [3]. Supply-Demand Dynamics: Low Inventory Dominance - In the current environment of weak supply and demand, inventory levels are crucial in influencing price trends. Domestic and international inventories are at historically low levels, heightening concerns about supply tightness, which helps maintain nickel prices despite weakening demand [4]. High Price Market: February 12th Nickel Spot Trading Insights - The spot market shows a "price rise, volume decline" characteristic as nickel prices strengthen. Traders are leaving the market for the holiday, leading to lower trading activity. Spot prices are rising with futures, but the spread structure remains stable, indicating limited acceptance of high prices by downstream buyers [5]. Short-Term Outlook: Will the Uptrend Continue? - After February 12th, nickel price increases are expected to slow down and enter a high-level fluctuation phase. With weakening spot trading and the end of pre-holiday inventory, upward momentum may diminish. However, low inventory and cost support remain, with expectations for the main nickel contract to trade between 138,000 and 141,000 yuan/ton. Post-holiday, market focus will shift to the pace of demand recovery, with potential for continued strength if downstream operations resume smoothly [6].

Core Viewpoint - Zhongwei New Materials (300919) saw a significant increase of over 10%, currently trading at 37.42 HKD with a transaction volume of 94.45 million HKD, driven by news regarding Indonesia's nickel mining quota for 2026, which is set at 260 to 270 million tons, significantly lower than the 2025 target of 379 million tons [1] Group 1: Company Insights - The company has secured a supply of 60 million wet tons of nickel ore through investments, partnerships, long-term agreements, and exclusive sales, which positions it favorably as nickel ore export quotas tighten, potentially leading to price increases [1] - Zhongwei New Materials has established nickel smelting capacity of 195,000 metal tons, creating a vertically integrated ecosystem from resource extraction to smelting and materials, which will positively impact its operating profits as LME nickel prices rise [1] Group 2: Industry Context - Nickel is one of the few non-participants in the ongoing bull market for non-ferrous metals in 2024, according to research from Zhongyou Securities, indicating a potential supply-demand gap due to Indonesian policy changes that could lead to significant price rebounds [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel prices adjusted with reduced volatility during the day. The main contract 2603 closed at 133,350 yuan/ton, slightly down 0.19%. Due to the rainy season in the Philippines and policy disturbances in Indonesia, overseas nickel ore prices have risen significantly. Considering the expanding smelting capacity in Indonesia, the 250 million - ton quota may lead to a structural shortage of ore in 2026. The firm ore price provides cost support for high - nickel pig iron, with the ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron rising by 1 to 1043.5 yuan/nickel point. However, downstream enterprises have basically no restocking demand before the festival, and only a few traders have the psychology of hoarding goods due to bullish expectations. The gap between upstream and downstream intended prices has widened, and the pre - festival market is cold with few transactions. The price of nickel sulfate remained flat at 31,950 yuan/ton. The recent decline in nickel prices has weakened cost support, and some manufacturers have stocked up on Spring Festival raw materials, with a low acceptance of high - priced nickel salts. Affected by macro - sentiment and the long - holiday factor, pre - festival funds tend to be cautious, leading to a reduced - volatility adjustment of nickel prices. Attention should be paid to policy changes in Indonesia and the actual implementation of the quota, and be vigilant against uncertainties such as the final approved total being temporarily increased due to smelter pressure [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - Nickel prices adjusted with reduced volatility. The main contract 2603 closed at 133,350 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. Overseas nickel ore prices rose due to the rainy season in the Philippines and policy disturbances in Indonesia. The 250 million - ton quota may cause a structural ore shortage in 2026. High - nickel pig iron price got cost support, but the pre - festival market was cold. Nickel sulfate price remained flat, and cost support weakened. Pre - festival funds were cautious, and nickel prices adjusted with reduced volatility. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and quota implementation [7]. 3.2行业要闻 - Vale's nickel production in 2025 reached 177,000 tons, the highest since 2022, a year - on - year increase of 10.69%, higher than the 2025 industrial guidance. The fourth - quarter production was 46,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. The company expects its 2026 nickel production to be between 175,000 - 200,000 tons [8][10]. - First Quantum Minerals Ltd. announced its 2025 preliminary production data and 2026 - 2028 production, cost, and capital expenditure guidelines. Its 2025 copper production was about 396,000 tons, within the revised guidance range; gold production was about 152,000 ounces, higher than the upper limit of the guidance; and Enterprise nickel production also exceeded expectations. The company slightly lowered its 2026 - 2027 copper and gold production guidelines, kept the nickel production guideline unchanged, expected higher unit copper cash cost and AISC, and raised the 2026 capital expenditure guideline. The Panama government agreed to process Cobre Panamá inventory ore [10]. - The Indonesian Nickel Smelters Association expects the domestic nickel smelting industry's nickel ore demand in 2026 to be about 340 - 350 million tons. On January 14, 2026, the Director of the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) said that this year's nickel ore production quota (RKAB) would be strategically adjusted to 250 - 260 million tons. The ESDM has allowed the existing quota to be extended until March 31, 2026, but the annual actual supply still depends on later government evaluation and quota addition [10].

Core Viewpoint - The nickel market is experiencing a weak downward trend due to macroeconomic factors, seasonal demand fluctuations, and reduced trading activity ahead of the Chinese New Year [2] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai nickel futures market showed a slight decline, with the main contract closing at 133,350 yuan/ton, down 260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.19% [1] - The average price of nickel on February 10 was reported at 139,600 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan from the previous day [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply is tightening as upstream smelters begin to enter holiday mode, leading to a slight decrease in production, but previous inventory accumulation continues to exert pressure on the market [3] - Demand from stainless steel manufacturers is tapering off, and seasonal weakness in the new energy battery sector is contributing to a dual weakness in supply and demand [3][5] Group 3: Industry Insights - The stainless steel sector, which is the main consumer of nickel, is only maintaining minimal purchases due to high prices and poor cost transmission [4] - High-nickel product procurement in the new energy battery sector is also experiencing a slowdown, indicating insufficient demand support [5] Group 4: Cost Factors - Nickel ore prices remain firm, providing some bottom support for nickel prices, but this is insufficient to counteract the negative impact of seasonal demand weakness [6] Group 5: Company Performance and Strategy - Leading nickel resource and smelting companies are maintaining stable operations, with ongoing production and orderly capacity expansion in Indonesia, effectively mitigating market risks from price fluctuations [7] - Companies are initiating routine maintenance and adjusting inventories to prepare for potential post-holiday demand, which may lead to further short-term supply contraction in the nickel market [7] Group 6: Trading Activity - The current spot market is characterized by low trading activity, with downstream buyers primarily making small, necessary purchases, and cautious pricing from traders [8] Group 7: Market Strategy and Outlook - The strategy for trading metals before the holiday should focus on risk control, with a preference for light positions and profit locking, while closely monitoring the U.S. dollar index and domestic capital flows [9] - Short-term nickel prices are expected to remain weak with narrow fluctuations, and post-holiday market direction will depend on downstream resumption of work, Indonesian nickel supply policies, and new energy demand [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The non - ferrous metals sector has a strong atmosphere, and the enthusiasm for long - position trading by funds remains high. Shanghai nickel maintains a strong and volatile operation supported by supply - side disturbances in Indonesia. On the 29th, the main contract closed at 147,470, up 1.79%. The total open interest decreased by 6,026 lots to 387,000 lots compared with the previous day [7]. - The latest news indicates that the RKAB approval quota may be adjusted to 2.6 billion tons, and the expected shortage of nickel ore supply supports miners to continuously raise quotes. The ex - factory average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron remained flat at 1,055 yuan per nickel point. The strong bullish sentiment at the pure nickel end drove the price of nickel iron to rise. However, due to high costs, the downstream's willingness to accept has decreased, but there were few low - price transactions, and the overall price remained firm supported by the nickel price [7]. - In 2026, although some old 2026 RKAB quotas can be used in the first quarter, the delay in the verification of the MOMS system of most mines has affected their normal shipments. Previously, Vale also stated that the currently approved quota is only 30% of the production demand, further strengthening the expectation of quota reduction. It is necessary to closely follow the policy statements of the Indonesian government and the actual quota issuance rhythm in the future. It is expected that policy disturbances will support the nickel market to continue to have significant upward elasticity [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - The non - ferrous metals sector is in a strong atmosphere, and funds are enthusiastic about long - position trading. Shanghai nickel is in a strong and volatile state supported by supply - side disturbances in Indonesia. On the 29th, the main contract closed at 147,470 with a 1.79% increase, and the total open interest decreased by 6,026 lots to 387,000 lots [7]. - The RKAB approval quota may be adjusted to 2.6 billion tons, leading to an expected shortage of nickel ore supply and prompting miners to raise quotes. The ex - factory price of high - nickel pig iron remained flat, and the price of nickel iron rose following the strong sentiment at the pure nickel end. High costs reduced the downstream's acceptance, but low - price transactions were rare, and the price remained firm [7]. - In 2026, quota availability and shipment issues, along with Vale's statement on approved quotas, strengthen the quota reduction expectation. Policy disturbances are expected to bring upward elasticity to the nickel market [7]. 3.2行业要闻 - PT Vale Indonesia is accelerating the commissioning of the HPAL Pomalaa project in Southeast Sulawesi. As of December 2025, the project's construction progress reached about 60%. Two autoclave units have arrived at the project site, and three more are planned for subsequent delivery. The company aims to complete the mechanized construction of the HPAL Pomalaa factory by August 2026. PT Vale is the sole nickel ore supplier for the HPAL Pomalaa factory [8][10]. - First Quantum Minerals Ltd. released its preliminary production data for 2025 and production, cost, and capital expenditure guidelines for 2026 - 2028. In 2025, its copper production was about 396,000 tons, within the revised guidance range; gold production was about 152,000 ounces, higher than the upper limit of the guidance; and Enterprise nickel production also exceeded expectations. The company slightly lowered the production guidelines for copper and gold in 2026 - 2027, while keeping the nickel production guideline unchanged. The unit cash cost of copper and AISC are expected to be higher than previously expected, and the 2026 capital expenditure guideline is raised [10]. - The Indonesian Nickel Smelters Association expects the domestic nickel smelting industry's nickel ore demand in 2026 to be about 340 - 350 million tons. The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to strategically adjust the nickel ore production quota (RKAB) to 250 - 260 million tons in 2026. The existing quotas are allowed to be extended until March 31, 2026, and the actual annual supply depends on later government evaluations and quota supplements [10].

Core Viewpoint - Zhongwei New Materials (02579) has seen a significant increase in stock price, attributed to its strategic investments and partnerships in nickel resources, which are expected to enhance profitability amid tightening nickel export quotas [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Zhongwei New Materials' stock price rose by over 4% in the morning session, currently trading at 40.3 HKD with a transaction volume of 75.8574 million HKD [1] - The company has secured a supply of 600 million wet tons of nickel ore through various investment and partnership strategies, which is anticipated to positively impact profitability as nickel prices rise [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - According to Everbright Futures, short-term policies in Indonesia are supporting nickel prices, while potential future quota increases and high inventory levels may exert downward pressure on prices [1] - Guoxin Securities noted that the company's nickel product shipments are consistently increasing, indicating stable operational performance, with expectations for nickel project capacity to continue to ramp up [1] - The company has established nickel smelting capacity of 195,000 metal tons, creating a vertically integrated ecosystem from resource extraction to material production, which is expected to benefit from rising LME nickel prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongwei New Materials (02579) has secured a supply of 600 million wet tons of nickel ore resources through investments, equity participation, long-term cooperation agreements, and exclusive sales, which is expected to positively impact profitability as nickel ore export quotas tighten, leading to price increases [1] Group 1: Company Developments - The company has established nickel resource smelting capacity of 195,000 metal tons, creating a vertically integrated ecosystem from resource extraction to smelting and materials [1] - The increase in LME nickel prices is anticipated to have a positive effect on the company's operating profits [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Everbright Futures suggests that Indonesian policies are providing short-term support for nickel prices, with market sentiment driving prices higher, although potential quota supplements and high inventory levels may exert downward pressure in the long term [1] - Guoxin Securities previously noted that the company's nickel product shipments are continuously increasing, indicating stable operational performance [1] - The company is expected to achieve a nickel self-supply volume of 90,000 to 100,000 tons by 2025 as production capacity continues to be released [1]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongwei New Materials (300919) has seen a nearly 5% increase in stock price, currently trading at 37.46 HKD, with a transaction volume of 30.03 million HKD [1] Company Summary - The company has secured 500-600 million wet tons of nickel ore resources through investments, equity participation, and long-term agreements [1] - Zhongwei has established four nickel raw material industrial bases in Indonesia, creating an integrated resource-smelting-materials industry chain [1] - The company has built a nickel smelting capacity of 195,000 metal tons, with an equity capacity of approximately 120,000 tons [1] - The annual production capacity of high nickel is 60,000 tons, which is expected to be fully operational by January 2026, with full production anticipated in 2026 [1] Industry Summary - Since early 2025, Indonesia has introduced a series of policies, including the SIMBARA full industry chain regulation and mandatory foreign exchange settlement for natural resource exports, aimed at strengthening control over nickel supply and supporting nickel prices [1] - Due to persistently low nickel prices, there may be expectations of reduced nickel ore quotas in 2026, highlighting the need to monitor future changes in Indonesia's quota policies and the current capacity clearance process [1]