镍金属 - 2026 年开门红金属巡礼 20260108 摘要 印尼镍矿出口禁令及配额政策是影响全球镍价的关键因素。2019 年禁 令限制原材料出口，推动中国在印尼设厂冶炼中间品，近期收紧配额政 策预计将加剧供应紧张，支撑镍价上涨。 2026 年镍市场整体供过于求，库存累积导致价格承压，尽管年初印尼 调整特许经营权使用费税率有所提振，但宏观经济及中美贸易战等因素 也加剧了短期价格波动。 印尼政府计划收紧镍矿配额，预计 2027 年镍市场供需平衡将趋紧，可 能出现供应不足，推动镍价上涨，当前或处于底部抬升阶段，回调可能 提供投资机会。 四季度不锈钢传统旺季及新能源车购置税政策调整，曾短期提振镍需求， 但随着旺季结束和政策效应减退，镍价再次下跌，表明需求侧对镍价的 影响具有周期性。 印尼镍矿协会宣布 2026 年 RKAB 批量大幅减少，刺激市场情绪，推动 镍价上涨，但印尼政府的模糊表态又导致价格暴跌，表明市场情绪对镍 价的短期影响显著。 Q&A 当前镍行业的基本面和市场供需情况如何？ 当前镍行业的基本面受到印尼政策的显著影响。全球镍矿储量约为 1.3 亿金属 吨，其中印尼占了 5,500 万金属吨，约占全球储量 ...

美对委军事行动细节公布！ 据央视新闻消息，当地时间1月3日，美国总统特朗普、国防部长赫格塞思等官员在佛罗里达州海湖庄园就美军对委内瑞拉动武、将委内瑞拉总统马杜罗控 制并移送出境举行记者会。 载有马杜罗的飞机抵达美国纽约一处军事基地 △记者会前，特朗普在社交媒体发布马杜罗在美军舰上的照片 记者会上，特朗普表示，美军在行动中使用了空中、陆地和海上力量。特朗普称，"这是美国军事实力和能力最令人震惊、最有效、最有力的展示之一"。 特朗普称，委内瑞拉"所有军事力量都已丧失战斗力"，马杜罗及其妻子都将面临美国司法审判。特朗普表示，执法部门在马杜罗夫妇高度戒备时将二人抓 捕。 当地时间1月3日，央视记者获悉，载有被美方抓捕的委内瑞拉总统马杜罗及其妻子弗洛雷斯的飞机已抵达纽约斯图尔特空军国民警卫队基地。 美国司法部3日公布了针对马杜罗夫妇及其儿子的起诉书。央视记者获悉，预计马杜罗将于下周在纽约曼哈顿联邦法院面临毒品和武器走私指控。 美国大型石油公司将进入委内瑞拉 特朗普还说，将让美国大型石油公司进入委内瑞拉，投入数十亿美元，修复严重破损的基础设施，尤其是石油基础设施，并开始创造收益。 特朗普称，对委内瑞拉所有石油的禁运仍完全 ...

近十年来印尼已成长为全球最大镍生产国，占据全球总量七成， 镍 的主要用途有两种： 不锈钢和 动力 电池， 当前对镍需求较高的三元电 池由于受到磷酸铁锂电池的挤压以及新能源汽车市场需求放缓，导致 镍 此前 表现偏弱 ，不过今年 Q4 开始形势如过山车般突变 。 该政策也传导至国内企业，例如 12 月 26 日盛屯矿业宣布终止印尼投资的 4 万吨 产能 项目，同时注销合资公司 ，由于 印尼矿业政策 处 于 调整 期， 市场价格波动 会加剧 投资风险。 01 印尼开始缩减产量 市场价格波动直接论证了印尼在镍矿赛道的核心地位，其实 今年 总体来看 镍 并没有很好表现，电池领域的需求不及预期，以及 替代性化学 配方 的出现，让人们对此关注度不高，而且印尼也在此时加大 供应， 让 库存迅速增加， 可这反倒让 镍价对收紧供应信号变得敏感。 先扩产再 削减供应 ，该国 能源与矿产 相关领导披露 减产计划 后，直接动摇了 定价权的核心 ，颇有一丝 "养肥后再割肉"的味道 。 在硫磺 / 钴 / 铜 / 碳酸锂价格上涨的同时，镍价格也随之走高，进入"妖镍"模式。 起点锂电获悉， 12 月 30 日沪镍期货主力报 134240 元 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Currently, the surplus pressure on nickel remains significant. However, with the stabilization of ferronickel prices and the improvement of the macro - atmosphere, nickel prices may shift to a volatile pattern in the short term. Future focus should be on the trends of ferronickel and ore prices. In terms of operations, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and make judgments after the ferronickel prices stabilize. The short - term operating range of SHFE nickel is expected to be between 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME 3M nickel contract is expected to be between 13,500 - 15,500 US dollars/ton [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: This week, nickel ore prices remained stable. In the Philippines, the cost inversion of domestic ferronickel smelters intensified, leading to a significant weakening of ore demand. However, miners still tried to support prices in the short term, so ore prices did not decline significantly. In the future, ore prices may face downward pressure due to weakening terminal demand. In Indonesia, some areas in Sulawesi entered the rainy season, reducing the production efficiency of some mines. With weakening demand and a lower HMM benchmark price, ore prices have a downward impetus. The wet - process ore market remained relatively dull, with prices mainly stable [11]. - **Ferronickel**: This week, terminal consumption was weak, and the negative feedback effect drove ferronickel prices to decline continuously. As the downstream entered the traditional off - season, stainless - steel terminal consumption was weak, and industry inventories were high. Many stainless - steel enterprises planned to cut production at the end of the year, reducing the procurement demand for ferronickel. Some traders sold at lower prices, and the market quotation and transaction center further declined. In the future, the ferronickel production profit level is at an absolute low, and there is downstream procurement demand when the ferronickel price is around 880 yuan/nickel. It is expected that ferronickel prices will gradually stabilize [11]. - **Intermediate products**: This week, the overall transaction of intermediate products was average, but the coefficient price remained high under cost support. In terms of supply, sulfur prices remained strong, and sellers were more willing to support prices. However, the demand for nickel sulfate weakened, and only some enterprises were preparing for raw material procurement in the first quarter of next year. The overall market transaction was rather cold [11]. - **Refined nickel**: After hitting a new phased low this week, nickel prices rebounded in the short term as the macro - atmosphere improved. The closing price of the SHFE nickel main contract on Friday was 117,080 yuan/ton, up 2.66% from last week, and the LME nickel price on Friday was 14,820 US dollars/ton, up 1.37% from last week. In terms of the macro - aspect, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut continued to rise this week, and market risk appetite gradually recovered. In the spot market, prices fluctuated with the futures market, and the premium and discount remained generally stable [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures nickel price trend**: Nickel prices rebounded this week. The closing price of the SHFE nickel main contract on Friday was 117,080 yuan/ton, up 2.66% from last week, and the LME nickel price on Friday was 14,820 US dollars/ton, up 1.37% from last week [17]. - **Nickel spot premium and discount**: The spot premium and discount were stable with a slight upward trend. As of November 28, the average spot premium of Russian nickel against the nearby contract was 400 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from last week, and the spot premium of Jinchuan nickel was reported at 4,700 - 4,800 yuan/ton, with the average price up 550 yuan/ton from last week [21]. - **Secondary nickel prices**: Ferronickel prices continued to be weak. As of November 28, the ex - factory price of domestic high - nickel pig iron was reported at 879 - 887 yuan/nickel point, with the average price down 8 yuan/nickel point from the same period last week. Nickel sulfate prices gradually weakened. As of November 28, the domestic spot price of nickel sulfate was reported at 27,660 - 27,800 yuan/ton, with the average price down 350 yuan/ton from the same period last week [24]. 3. Cost End - **Nickel ore**: Nickel ore prices remained stable. On November 28, the delivered price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore was reported at 52.02 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from last week, the delivered price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore was reported at 23 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from last week, and the CIF price of 1.5% - grade nickel ore produced in the Philippines was reported at 57 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from last week [33]. 4. Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In October 2025, the domestic refined nickel monthly output was 33,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons compared with September [48]. - **Demand**: The report shows relevant data on stainless - steel production, inventory, and terminal demand in the manufacturing and real - estate sectors, but no specific demand summary is provided [50][52]. - **Import and export**: Not specifically summarized in the text, only relevant data charts are presented [54]. - **Inventory**: This week, the global visible nickel inventory increased by 2,382 tons to 308,476 tons [57]. - **Cost**: The report presents relevant data on the production cost and profit rate of different refined - nickel production processes, but no specific cost summary is provided [59]. 5. Nickel Sulfate - **Supply**: The report shows data on the production and net import volume of nickel sulfate in China, but no specific supply summary is provided [63]. - **Demand**: The report shows data on the production volume of ternary power batteries and ternary precursors, but no specific demand summary is provided [66]. - **Cost and price**: The report presents data on the production cost, price, and profit rate of battery - grade nickel sulfate from different raw materials, but no specific summary is provided [68]. 6. Supply - Demand Balance - The report provides data on global nickel supply outlook and quarterly supply - demand balance forecasts from 2023 to 2025. Overall, the supply exceeded demand from 2023 - 2025, with the surplus increasing year by year [73].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market is expected to remain volatile. The rainy season in the Surigao mining area of the Philippines has tightened the shipment volume of nickel ore. In Indonesia, the domestic trade premium of nickel ore has been stable, providing strong cost support at the mine end. Affected by macro - sentiment, nickel prices are under short - term pressure. However, the strong cost resilience in the fourth quarter and potential disturbances in the RKAB approval process in Indonesia will limit the further decline of nickel prices, while upward breakthroughs are still restricted by fundamentals [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Market Overview - In the nickel market, prices are within the oscillation range. In the stainless - steel market, the upward space of steel prices is restricted by factors such as high inventory, weak demand, and weakened cost support [3][4][5]. Industry News Update - Xiamen Tungsten New Energy and GEM signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement. From 2026 - 2028, GEM is expected to supply 150,000 tons of various battery raw materials and products annually, totaling 450,000 tons in three years [7]. - The London Metal Exchange received an application for the listing of the "PTENICO" nickel brand from PT Eternal Nickel Industry [7]. - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association announced an increase in the reference price of domestic nickel ore trade in October 2025 (Phase II) [7]. - The World Bureau of Metal Statistics reported a surplus in global refined nickel supply in August 2025 and from January - August 2025 [7]. - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources formulated rules for the online approval of the next - year's RKAB for mines starting in October each year [7]. Market Price Performance Futures and Spot Prices - The Shanghai nickel main contract 2512 fell 1.28% last week. The spot price of electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.85% week - on - week to $122,000 per ton as of November 3 [9][13]. - The price of Jinchuan nickel dropped by 0.76% week - on - week to $123,350 per ton, with a premium increase of $150 to $2,600 per ton. The price of imported nickel decreased by 0.9% week - on - week to $121,150 per ton, with a stable premium [13]. Export and Import Windows - As of October 31, the LME nickel price decreased by 0.49% week - on - week to $15,250 per ton. The electrolytic nickel import and export losses increased [18]. NPI and Sulfuric Acid Nickel Prices - The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.59% week - on - week to $923 per nickel point as of November 3. The price of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel remained stable, while the price of electroplating - grade sulfuric acid nickel increased [27]. Supply - side Analysis Nickel Ore - As of October 31, the CIF prices of Philippine laterite nickel ore at 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% remained unchanged week - on - week. The domestic trade prices of Indonesian Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% nickel ore also remained stable [32]. - Nickel ore port inventory decreased by 1.76% week - on - week to 10.06 million wet tons as of October 31. In September 2025, the national nickel ore import volume decreased by 3.51% month - on - month but increased by 34.43% year - on - year [35]. MHP and High - Grade Nickel Matte - As of October 31, the FOB price of MHP increased by 2.01% week - on - week to $13,422 per ton, and the FOB price of high - grade nickel matte increased by 1.86% week - on - week to $13,711 per ton [41]. - In October 2025, the production of Indonesian MHP increased by 0.74% month - on - month to 41,000 nickel tons, while the production of high - grade nickel matte decreased by 1.77% month - on - month to 22,200 tons [42]. Refined Nickel - In October 2025, China's electrolytic nickel monthly production increased by 0.84% month - on - month to 35,900 tons, an increase of 17.06% year - on - year [49]. - As of October 31, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 17.08% week - on - week to 31,400 tons, and LME nickel warehouse receipts increased by 0.60% week - on - week to 252,800 tons [51]. Sulfuric Acid Nickel - In October 2025, China's sulfuric acid nickel monthly production increased by 6.66% month - on - month to 36,200 nickel tons. The raw material shortage limited capacity release, and the market supply was still tight [64]. Nickel Pig Iron - In October 2025, the national nickel pig iron production (metal volume) increased by 22.72% month - on - month to 28,100 tons. The production in Indonesia increased by 6.58% month - on - month to 149,100 nickel tons [77]. Demand - side Analysis Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel main contract ss2512 fell 1.21% last week. The spot price of the 304 variety decreased by $50 - $300 due to weak fundamentals [86]. - In October 2025, the estimated output of domestic stainless - steel mills' crude steel increased by 0.57% month - on - month. It is expected to decrease by 2.06% in November [89]. - As of October 31, the stainless - steel social inventory increased by 0.36% week - on - week to 1.0311 million tons. The cost of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel decreased by 1.05% week - on - week to $12,800 per ton as of November 3 [92][96]. China's Primary Nickel Balance Sheet - From May 2025 to May 2026, the total supply of nickel generally showed an upward trend, and the total demand also increased steadily. The supply - demand balance remained positive, indicating a supply surplus in the market [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core view on nickel is that it will be in a volatile state. The price of nickel ore at the raw material end remains high, and with the coming of the rainy season in the Philippines, the shipment volume of nickel ore is hindered, and mines have a strong attitude to hold prices. The fundamentals of pure nickel remain weak, but short - term macro - sentiment may still be priced in, and it is expected that nickel prices will continue to fluctuate widely [3]. - The short - term stainless steel market is operating weakly. The downward shift of cost support and the imbalance between supply and demand jointly suppress steel prices. After the "Silver October" peak season, downstream buyers mainly purchase for rigid demand and resist high - priced resources, making it difficult to provide upward momentum for prices [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Nickel Market 3.1.1 Price and Market Conditions - As of October 27, the spot price of electrolytic nickel increased by 950 yuan/ton to 123,050 yuan/ton week - on - week, a 0.78% increase; the price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 950 yuan/ton to 124,300 yuan/ton, a 0.77% increase; the price of imported nickel increased by 950 yuan/ton to 122,250 yuan/ton, a 0.78% increase [15]. - As of October 27, the LME nickel price increased by 105 dollars/ton to 15,335 dollars/ton week - on - week, a 0.69% increase; the LME nickel 0 - 3 spot premium decreased by 0.3 dollars/ton to - 205.18 dollars/ton [19]. - As of October 27, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 9 yuan/nickel point to 928.5 yuan/nickel point week - on - week, a 0.96% decrease [3][27]. 3.1.2 Supply - As of September 2025, China's monthly electrolytic nickel production increased by 0.04 million tons to 3.56 million tons month - on - month, a 1.14% increase, and a 13.07% increase year - on - year [3][49]. - As of September 2025, China's monthly refined nickel export volume was 1.41 million tons, a 6.22% decrease month - on - month, and a 33.21% increase year - on - year; the monthly import volume was 2.84 million tons, a 17.29% increase month - on - month, and a 378.85% increase year - on - year [49]. - As of October 27, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 2,912 tons to 29,800 tons week - on - week, a 10.84% increase; LME nickel warehouse receipts increased by 762 tons to 251,200 tons week - on - week, a 0.30% increase [50]. 3.1.3 Demand - The battery field is the core driver of demand. The penetration of high - nickel battery technology is increasing, and new - energy vehicle manufacturers have stable production, increasing the procurement demand for high - purity nickel sulfate. The electroplating field benefits from the peak season of consumer electronics, driving up the inquiry volume of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate [4]. 3.2 Nickel Ore Market 3.2.1 Price - As of October 27, the CIF prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% Philippine laterite nickel ore increased by 1 dollar/wet ton to 30, 58, and 79.5 dollars/wet ton respectively week - on - week [3][32]. - As of October 24, the ex - works prices of Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% domestic trade nickel ore in Indonesia remained unchanged at 23 and 52.8 dollars/wet ton respectively week - on - week [3][32]. - Last week, the freight rates from the Philippines to Tianjin Port and Lianyungang remained unchanged at 12.5 and 11.5 dollars/wet ton respectively [3][32]. 3.2.2 Supply - As of October 24, the nickel ore port inventory decreased by 29 million tons to 10.24 million wet tons week - on - week, a 2.75% decrease [35]. - In September 2025, the national nickel ore import volume was 6.1145 million tons, a 3.51% decrease month - on - month, and a 34.43% increase year - on - year. Among them, the import volume from the Philippines was 5.8174 million tons, a 1.93% decrease month - on - month [35]. 3.3 Nickel Intermediate Product Market - As of October 27, the FOB price of MHP increased by 24 dollars/ton to 13,184 dollars/ton week - on - week, a 0.18% increase; the FOB price of high - grade nickel matte increased by 24 dollars/ton to 13,489 dollars/ton week - on - week, a 0.18% increase [41]. - As of September 2025, the production of Indonesian MHP decreased by 0.08 million tons to 4.07 million nickel tons month - on - month, a 1.93% decrease; the production of high - grade nickel matte increased by 0.53 million tons to 2.26 million tons month - on - month, a 30.64% increase [41]. - As of September 2025, the monthly import volume of MHP was 1.905 million tons, a 11.66% increase month - on - month, and a 67.38% increase year - on - year; the monthly import volume of high - grade nickel matte was 0.568 million tons, a 236.44% increase month - on - month, and a 65.93% increase year - on - year [41]. 3.4 Nickel Sulfate Market - As of September 2025, China's monthly nickel sulfate production increased by 0.35 million tons to 3.40 million nickel tons month - on - month, a 11.45% increase. The production of domestic nickel sulfate increased, and the operating rate was also adjusted upwards. Recently, some salt plants that had undergone maintenance have restored production capacity, and the production volume has slightly increased due to contract processing orders. However, the overall inventory is at a low level, and the volume of spot sales is limited, and the market supply continues to be in a tight pattern [62]. - As of September 2025, China's monthly nickel sulfate import volume was 2.95 million tons, a 2.51% decrease month - on - month, and a 36.24% increase year - on - year; the monthly export volume was 806,420 tons, a 58.96% increase month - on - month, and a 75.81% decrease year - on - year [62]. 3.5 Nickel Iron Market 3.5.1 Production - As of September 2025, the national nickel pig iron production (metal content) decreased by 0.23 million tons to 2.29 million tons month - on - month, a 9.30% decrease. Most domestic nickel iron manufacturers maintain a normal production rhythm, but due to the narrowing profit margin and weak demand, the overall industry operating rate is at a low level [78]. - As of September 2025, the production of nickel pig iron in Indonesia increased by 0.2 million tons to 13.99 million nickel tons month - on - month, a 1.45% increase [78]. 3.5.2 Import - As of September 2025, China's monthly nickel iron import volume was 1.0853 million tons (converted to metal content of 136,400 tons), a 24.16% increase month - on - month, and a 47.19% increase year - on - year. The latest data shows that the import volume of nickel iron from Indonesia has increased significantly, exacerbating the domestic oversupply situation [78]. 3.5.3 Profit - As of October 27, the cash production cost of RKEF in Fujian increased by 2.94 yuan/nickel point to 1,002.96 yuan/nickel point week - on - week, and the production profit margin decreased by 1.17 percentage points to - 7.42% [84]. 3.6 Stainless Steel Market 3.6.1 Price - Last week, the stainless steel main contract ss2512 opened at 12,620 yuan/ton and closed at 12,810 yuan/ton, with a weekly high of 12,840 yuan/ton and a low of 12,565 yuan/ton, a 1.43% weekly increase. The futures market showed an upward trend, but the boost to the spot market was limited [87]. 3.6.2 Production - As of October 2025, the national stainless steel crude steel production plan was 3.4472 million tons, a 0.60% increase month - on - month, and a 4.75% increase year - on - year. Among them, the production plan for the 200 - series was 1.035 million tons, a 1.35% increase month - on - month; the 300 - series was 1.7649 million tons, a 0.12% increase month - on - month; the 400 - series was 0.6293 million tons, a 0.69% increase month - on - month [90]. 3.6.3 Inventory - As of October 24, the stainless steel social inventory decreased by 13,800 tons to 1.0274 million tons week - on - week, a 1.33% decrease. Among them, the 300 - series inventory decreased by 5,800 tons to 649,300 tons week - on - week, a 0.89% decrease [93]. - As of October 28, the stainless steel warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 601 tons to 73,900 tons week - on - week, a 0.81% decrease [93]. 3.6.4 Cost - As of October 28, the production cost of Chinese 304 cold - rolled stainless steel decreased by 78 yuan/ton to 12,904 yuan/ton week - on - week, a 0.60% decrease [96].