| 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入 (元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601127 | 赛力斯 | 8943.67万 | 5.02% | -5151.76万 | -2.89% | -3791.92万 | -2.13% | | 002594 比亚迪 | | 2463.92万 | 0.78% | -6257.67万 | -1.97% | 3793.74万 | 1.19% | | 000625 长安汽车 | | 327.12万 | 0.42% | -383.04万 | -0.50% | - 55.92万 | 0.07% | | 601633 长城汽车 | | -66.38万 | -0.24% | 38.78万 | 0.14% | 27.61万 | 0.10% | | 600104 上汽集团 | | -1793.95万 | -3.77% | -965.20万 | -2.03% | 2759.15万 | 5.80% | | 601238 广汽集 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant growth in the intelligence index of China's passenger car market, highlighting the advancements in smart cockpit, smart driving, and external smart technologies, indicating a robust development trend in the industry [3][13]. Group 1: Smart Car Intelligence Index - The passenger car intelligence index for November 2025 is reported at 37.7, showing a substantial increase compared to the previous month [13]. - The smart cockpit index reached 40.0, with a month-on-month increase of 1.8 units, indicating a significant growth trend [8][13]. - The smart driving index stood at 41.2, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.6 units, showcasing a notable upward trajectory [10][13]. - The external smart index was recorded at 21.5, with a month-on-month increase of 2.1 units, continuing its previous upward trend [13]. Group 2: Market Performance - In November 2025, the retail sales of passenger cars in China totaled 2.225 million units, representing a year-on-year decline of 8.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.1% [13]. - The retail sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.32 million units, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.2% and a month-on-month increase of 3.0% [13]. Group 3: Index Composition and Methodology - The passenger car intelligence index consists of one primary index and three secondary indices: smart cockpit index, smart driving index, and external smart index, which reflect the market performance of vehicles meeting corresponding smart standards [15]. - The calculation method for the intelligence index incorporates weighted contributions from the smart cockpit, smart driving, and external smart indices, with respective weightings of 47.5%, 37.5%, and 15.0% [16][19][20].

来源：市场资讯 周一（12月29日），华宝基金旗下新品——港股通汽车ETF华宝（520780）正式于上海证券交易所上市 交易。该基金的上市，为投资者一键布局港股汽车产业龙头，尤其是分享智能驾驶革命红利，提供了一 个高效、便捷的指数化投资工具。 聚焦整车龙头，拥抱智驾浪潮 数据来源：中证指数 当前，汽车产业的变革已远不止于电动化，更深刻的智能化、网联化浪潮正在重塑行业格局。"智驾新 未来"已成为社会各界广泛认同的产业前景。汽车不仅是重要的消费终端，更成为人工智能技术关键的 端侧应用场景。 港股通汽车ETF华宝所跟踪的这个指数，敏锐地捕捉了这一趋势，成分股中包含了如小鹏汽车-W、零 跑汽车、地平线机器人-W等在内地市场相对稀缺的智能驾驶核心标的。相较于A股的同主题ETF，这只 ETF为投资者呈现了一个更具科创属性与国际化视野的智能驾驶龙头企业组合。 产品优势与市场机遇 从业绩上来看，截至2025年11月30日，中证港股通汽车指数自基日（2016.12.30）以来，累计涨幅已达 到132.21%，显著跑赢同期CS新能车、中证800汽车等同类行业主题指数及恒生科技、沪深300等宽基指 数。 从盈利预测来看，港股通汽车 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records focus on the automotive industry, specifically the passenger vehicle market in China, with an emphasis on new energy vehicles (NEVs) and the impact of government subsidy policies on consumer behavior and market dynamics [1][2][11]. Key Points and Arguments Government Subsidy Policies - The total subsidy amount for 2026 is expected to remain at 300 billion, with approximately 100 billion allocated for automotive subsidies [1][2]. - The "trade-in" policy for old vehicles may require that the old car be held for over a year to prevent subsidy fraud [2][4]. - Expected subsidies for 2025 include 8% for NEVs and 6% for fuel vehicles, with scrapping subsidies of 12% for NEVs and 10% for fuel vehicles [1][2][11]. - The average subsidy per vehicle in 2025 is projected to be around 11,500 yuan, with a similar expectation for 2026 [1][3]. Consumer Behavior and Market Demand - Consumer expectations for the trade-in policy are high, with subsidies accounting for about 7% of the average transaction price of 100,000 yuan for passenger vehicles [1][4]. - Approximately two-thirds of potential customers are waiting for the 2026 subsidy updates, particularly for trade-in subsidies [1][5]. - The demand for NEVs is expected to see significant growth in Q1 2026, driven by new subsidy policies and promotional activities from manufacturers to clear inventory [6][11]. Inventory and Sales Dynamics - Major manufacturers like BYD are facing high inventory levels, with an inventory coefficient exceeding 2, while brands like Geely and Leap Motor have lower coefficients of 1.1-1.5 [7][8]. - Leap Motor has maintained strong sales due to its focus on electric vehicles priced between 120,000 and 150,000 yuan, achieving a market share that has doubled [9]. - BYD is expected to leverage its strong inventory and product updates to improve sales efficiency and reduce inventory pressure in the coming months [10]. Price Control and Market Strategy - The government plans to implement strict price control measures to prevent significant price reductions, which could lead to legal risks for brands [12]. - Dealers are expected to benefit from this environment, potentially achieving profitability per vehicle sold [12]. - Manufacturers will likely respond by enhancing product quality and value, with expectations of a price increase of over 3,000 yuan in the overall sedan market [12]. Future Vehicle Plans - Geely plans to launch new models under the Galaxy series, including several new SUVs and sedans, with a total of about 10 new models expected [17]. - Other brands like Lynk & Co and Zeekr are also planning to introduce new models to invigorate the market [18]. Additional Important Insights - The anticipated decline in the market for electric vehicles priced below 100,000 yuan could significantly impact state-owned enterprises and brands focused on low-end electric vehicles [11]. - The overall market dynamics indicate a shift towards larger vehicles with increased battery capacity, while maintaining price competitiveness within the specified subsidy ranges [11].

Investment Highlights - The automotive sector has shown positive performance this week, with the SW passenger vehicle and SW auto parts sectors leading with gains of +3.3% each, followed by SW automotive (+2.7%) and SW commercial vehicles (+1.1%), while SW commercial passenger vehicles declined by -2.2% [4][12] - The top-performing stocks this week include Yatong Co., Hengshuai Co., Xusheng Group, Yinlun Co., and Shuanghuan Transmission [4][12] Research Outcomes - The team has released a strategy report for automotive parts for 2026 and a monthly report on buses [5][12] Industry Core Changes 1. Xiaopeng Motors collaborated with Peking University to publish a paper at the international AI conference AAAI 2026, addressing the core contradiction of high computational load and precise decision-making in autonomous driving, showcasing both technological breakthroughs and commercial feasibility [6][12] 2. Horizon Robotics launched the S100P mass production of the Digua robot and officially released the Vbot super robot dog [6][12] 3. The Zhiji brand is expected to achieve full-cost profitability for the first time by December 2025 [6][12] Current Automotive Sector Configuration - The automotive industry is entering a new crossroads phase, with the end of the electric vehicle (EV) dividend and the dawn of automotive intelligence, while robotics innovation is in the 0-1 stage. Three main investment opportunities are emerging during this transition [8][13] - **AI Smart Vehicle Main Line**: Focus on Robotaxi/van, with downstream application core targets including: - **Robotaxi Perspective**: Integrated models like Tesla, Xiaopeng Motors, and Qianli Technology; technology providers with operational sharing models like Horizon Robotics and Baidu; transformation of ride-hailing/taxi services with companies like Cao Cao Mobility, Didi, and others [8][13] - **Robovan Perspective**: Key focus on Desay SV and others [8][13] - **C-end Vehicle Sales Perspective**: Whole vehicles from Xiaopeng Motors, Li Auto, Huawei, Xiaomi, etc. [8][13] - **Upstream Supply Chain Core Targets**: B-end vehicle manufacturing by companies like BAIC Blue Valley, GAC Group, and SAIC Group; core suppliers in testing, chips, domain controllers, sensors, and more [8][13] - **AI Robotics Main Line**: Preferred components from Top Group, Junsheng Electronics, Xinquan Technology, and others [8][13] - **Dividend & Good Pattern Main Line**: Focus on buses (Yutong Bus), heavy trucks (China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, Weichai Power), and two-wheelers (Chunfeng Power, Longxin General) [9][13]

Overall Market Trends - The overall price change index for the national passenger car market in November 2025 is -0.39, with an average transaction price of 157,900 yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 7,757 yuan or 5.17% [4] - The overall discount change index for the market is -1.3, with an average discount of 25,700 yuan, which is a decrease of 841 yuan or 3.17% from the previous month [4] Sedan Market - The price change index for the sedan market in November is -8.16, with an average transaction price of 122,600 yuan [3] - The overall transaction price for the sedan market increased by 5,266 yuan, or 4.49% month-on-month [5] - The discount change index for the sedan market is -0.17, with an average discount of 27,700 yuan [6] SUV Market - The price change index for the SUV market is 6.62, with an average transaction price of 183,500 yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10,035 yuan or 5.78% [10] - The discount change index for the SUV market is -2.31, with an average discount of 24,100 yuan, which is a decrease of 1,609 yuan or 6.25% from the previous month [10] MPV Market - The price change index for the MPV market is -5.01, with an average transaction price of 260,300 yuan, showing a month-on-month decrease of 11,942 yuan or 4.39% [10] - The discount change index for the MPV market is 0.14, with an average discount of 20,700 yuan, which is a decrease of 1,406 yuan or 6.36% from the previous month [8] New Energy Market - The overall price change index for the new energy market is -0.82, with an average transaction price of 161,600 yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 9,516 yuan or 6.26% [11] - The discount change index for the new energy market is -0.13, with an average discount of 9,700 yuan, which is a decrease of 86 yuan or 0.88% from the previous month [12] New Energy Sedan Market - The price change index for the new energy sedan market is -11.06, with an average transaction price of 107,000 yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 7,031 yuan or 7.03% [15] - The discount change index for the new energy sedan market is 0.87, with an average discount of 10,000 yuan, which is an increase of 409 yuan or 4.28% from the previous month [15] New Energy SUV Market - The price change index for the new energy SUV market is 6.75, with an average transaction price of 205,600 yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 9,611 yuan or 4.91% [15] - The discount change index for the new energy SUV market is -0.71, with an average discount of 9,300 yuan, which is a decrease of 561 yuan or 5.71% from the previous month [15] New Energy MPV Market - The price change index for the new energy MPV market is -12.98, with an average transaction price of 291,400 yuan, showing a month-on-month decrease of 23,385 yuan or 7.43% [15] - The discount change index for the new energy MPV market is -0.32, with an average discount of 12,700 yuan, which is a decrease of 623 yuan or 4.67% from the previous month [18]

Core Insights - The capital market in 2025 experienced structural fluctuations, with non-ferrous metals, TMT, and power equipment being market highlights, while dividend sectors and real estate faced pressure. As 2026 approaches, structural opportunities are emerging supported by policy stabilization, corporate profit recovery, and liquidity influx [4] Group 1: Global Liquidity Improvement - The global macro environment in 2026 is expected to release positive signals, with the U.S. fiscal and monetary policies likely to trend towards easing. The "Great Beautiful Act" could lead to a long-term tax cut, potentially increasing the federal deficit by approximately $3.4 trillion over the next decade, and the debt ceiling may rise by $5 trillion (a 12% increase) [5] - A low-interest-rate environment is expected to ease global liquidity constraints, alleviating capital outflow pressures in emerging markets and creating a relatively stable external environment for A-shares [5] Group 2: Domestic Economic Recovery - Domestic policies are aligning with micro signals to create a warming effect. The Central Economic Work Conference at the end of 2025 and the 2026 Two Sessions will emphasize "seeking progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency" [6] - Industrial enterprises are currently at the bottom of the inventory cycle, with a narrowing decline in PPI indicating an approaching replenishment cycle. The cumulative year-on-year growth of net profit excluding non-recurring gains for all A-shares in Q3 2025 was 3.2%, and asset turnover rates are stabilizing [6] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to drive price recovery, leading to a positive cycle in corporate profits. Institutional investors such as insurance funds and bank wealth management are anticipated to become significant sources of incremental funds in 2026, further solidifying market liquidity [6] Group 3: Key Investment Areas for 2026 - Focus on the AI supercycle, with continued prosperity in domestic and international computing power chains. Attention should be given to new technology iterations and inflation-related sectors, particularly the gaming industry and the gradual development of smart terminals and AI applications [7] - High-end manufacturing going overseas should be monitored, especially in sectors like energy storage-lithium batteries and AI-related high-demand segments. Sustainable growth potential exists in domestic and overseas markets for heavy trucks, passenger vehicles, and construction machinery [8] - Long-term attention should be given to the revaluation of strategic resources, including precious and industrial metals. Energy and lithium carbonate show signs of bottoming out, while the chemical sector's resource products and significantly rebounding blue-chip varieties are also worth investing in [8] - Continuous monitoring of breakthroughs in frontier technologies such as robotics, solid-state batteries, controlled nuclear fusion, aerospace, and quantum computing is recommended [9] - New consumption trends and innovative pharmaceuticals are areas of interest, with solid fundamentals in emotional, service, and technology consumption. The innovative drug sector remains a long-term trend, with improved cost-effectiveness following recent declines [9] Conclusion - The equity market outlook for 2026, while facing challenges, is supported by a "triple support" system of policy stabilization, profit recovery, and liquidity influx, which may solidify the foundation for structural market trends. Investors are encouraged to align with industry trends and core logic while capturing opportunities from a long-term perspective [10]

智通财经APP获悉，华龙证券发布研报称，2026年乘用车行业转入存量逻辑，寻找新增长极成为核心。 整车方面，爆款新车&出海增量仍值得期待，AI转型下商业模式变更以及拓展人形机器人等新业务有望 重构车企估值框架；汽车零部件方面，积极拥抱具身智能时代机遇，自动驾驶汽车以及人形机器人作为 具身智能两个重要载体，均有望在2026年取得1-10或0-1的阶段性进展，产业链核心环节标的弹性可 期，维持行业推荐评级。 随着两新政策效果边际效应减弱，2026年乘用车行业转入存量逻辑，核心是寻找新的增长极，从两方面 来看：基本面看爆款新车与出海增量。新车方面，爆款新车对销量的拉动成为多家自主车企2025年国内 销量增长的主要动力，多家车企在2026年进入产品大年且高端化进程持续，关注具备爆款潜力的新车对 车企销量&基本面改善的拉动作用；出海方面，2025-2026年是自主车企海外产能密集落地期，展望至 2026年底，预计8座海外工厂投产，对应达产产能80.5万辆，解决车企海外市场供给能力的关键制约， 海外销量增量以及其高利润水平有望带动车企业绩修复。 AI时代消费者心智&偏好的变化倒逼乘用车企提升产品智能化水平，建设AI大模型 ...

Market Performance - The A-share automotive sector rose by 2.8% from December 22 to December 28, outperforming the CSI 300 index which increased by 1.2% [2] - Within the sector, automotive parts, passenger cars, commercial cargo vehicles, and automotive services saw increases of 4.0%, 2.3%, 0.9%, and 0.3% respectively, while motorcycles and commercial passenger vehicles declined by 1.3% and 2.1% [2] Investment Recommendations - The core investment focus for the month includes companies such as Geely Automobile, Xpeng Motors, BYD, Bertley, Top Group, New Spring, Hu Guang, and Chunfeng Power [3][10] - In the passenger car segment, there is optimism for quality domestic brands accelerating in smart technology and globalization, recommending Geely, Xpeng, BYD, and Xiaomi [12] - For automotive parts, recommendations include smart driving companies like Bertley and Horizon Robotics, as well as companies in the new forces supply chain such as Xingyu and Hu Guang [15] Robotics and Automation - Zhiyuan Robotics is expected to achieve annual revenue exceeding 1 billion yuan, with a projected shipment of 5,000 robots by 2025 [4] - The first batch of L3 autonomous vehicles has been approved for large-scale operation in Chongqing, which is anticipated to drive technological optimization and the practical application of autonomous driving technology [5][11] - The focus on the robotics sector is heightened with the upcoming IPOs of domestic robotics manufacturers, which are expected to catalyze the industry [4][16] Heavy Trucks and Commercial Vehicles - The heavy truck market is experiencing a recovery, with sales in November 2025 reaching approximately 100,000 units, a year-on-year increase of about 46% [26] - The expansion of the vehicle replacement subsidy policy is expected to stimulate demand for new purchases, with average subsidies of 80,000 yuan for scrapping and replacing eligible trucks [26][27] Tire Industry - The tire industry is witnessing a strong performance with high operating rates, particularly in the PCR segment, which stood at 72.05% as of December 26, 2025 [30][48] - Recommendations for tire companies include Sailun and Senqilin, as they are expected to benefit from ongoing globalization and demand recovery [28][30]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the semiconductor foundry price increases have alleviated market concerns regarding the demand for mature processes in 2026, primarily due to improved competitive dynamics and rising raw material costs [5][14] - The automotive sector is experiencing continued pressure on retail sales, with the first batch of L3 autonomous vehicles from Deep Blue officially registered and on the road [6][30] - In the tools sector, TTI has terminated its HART business to strengthen mid-term profitability, while SBD's divestiture of its aerospace segment is expected to significantly reduce debt and optimize leverage ratios [31][43] Summary by Sections Electronics - Semiconductor foundries have raised some production capacities, leading to a 5.4% increase in the electronics index, outperforming the Hang Seng Technology Index [5][14] - Notable stock performances include SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor, which rose by 9.2% and 5.5% respectively [5][14] Automotive - Retail sales in the passenger car market are under pressure, with a 19% year-on-year decline in retail volume for December 2025 compared to December 2024, although there was a 5% month-on-month increase [25][26] - The first L3 autonomous vehicles from Deep Blue were officially registered on December 26, 2025, marking a significant milestone in autonomous driving technology [30] Tools - TTI's termination of the HART business aims to enhance mid-term profitability, while SBD's sale of its aerospace business for $1.8 billion is expected to reduce debt significantly [41][43] - The divestiture is projected to create approximately $405 million to $415 million in revenue for the fiscal year 2025, with an adjusted EBITDA margin exceeding 10% [43] Investment Recommendations - In the electronics sector, companies like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor are expected to benefit from the price increases in foundry services [55] - In the automotive sector, attention is drawn to companies involved in L3 autonomous driving and Robotaxi, including Xiaoma Zhixing and Horizon Robotics [55] - In the tools sector, the report recommends companies such as Techtronic Industries and泉峰控股, with beneficiaries including Juxing Technology and Greebo [55]