证券研究报告 零跑汽车 (9863 HK) 2025 年中期策略会速递— 新车周期强劲，全球化稳步推进 | 华泰研究 | | | 更新报告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 6 月 | 05 日│中国香港 | 乘用车 | 6 月 4 日零跑汽车出席了我们组织的 2025 年中期策略会，会上公司重申发 展战略，沟通了 1-5 月销量和车型规划，维持全年销量 50-60 万辆目标。25 年公司将迎全球化新车周期，配合渠道端提前布局和下沉，LEAP3.5 架构 进一步集成降本，叠加战略合作逐步贡献增量，我们预计公司 25-27 年营收 将保持高速增长且毛利率持续提升，25 年有望实现全年盈利。维持买入。 25 年迎强势新车周期，1-5 月累计销量同比+161%，全年目标 50-60 万辆 公司销量表现亮眼，1-5 月累计销量同比+161%达 173658 辆。受益于规模 效应+销量结构优化+成本管理，24Q4/25Q1 毛利率为 13.3%/14.9%连创历 史新高。公司 25-26 年将迎密集的全球化新车投放，ABCD 四大平台协同发 力，其中 A 平台定位入门级，B ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][31]. Core Views - The company achieved a significant year-on-year sales growth of 331% in Q1 2025, with a total sales volume of 94,000 vehicles [2][20]. - The revenue for Q1 2025 reached 15.81 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 141.5% [7]. - The launch of new models, including the MONA M03, is expected to drive sales further, with the new version receiving over 12,566 orders within the first hour of its release [3][27]. - The company maintains its profit forecast, projecting revenues of 88.5 billion, 118.1 billion, and 130.3 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, while expecting net losses of 1.58 billion, 2.659 billion, and 4.682 billion yuan for the same years [31]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the gross margin was 15.6%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was -4.2%, improving by 16.7 percentage points year-on-year [2][11]. - The automotive business gross margin was 10.5%, up 5.0 percentage points year-on-year, driven by increased sales and reduced costs [11]. - The service and other income gross margin was 66.4%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.5% due to higher-margin technical service revenues [11]. Sales and Delivery Guidance - The company expects Q2 2025 vehicle deliveries to be between 102,000 and 108,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 238% to 258% [20]. - Cumulative total deliveries from April to May 2025 reached 68,600 units, marking a year-on-year growth of 251% [2][20]. Model Launches and Market Strategy - The 2025 model of the X9 and the new version of the MONA M03 were launched, featuring advanced AI driving capabilities [3][24]. - The MONA M03 is positioned to penetrate the market for high-end intelligent driving vehicles priced under 200,000 yuan, enhancing the company's competitive edge [31].

Group 1: Automotive Sector Insights - The current trend in the automotive sector is the industrialization of L4 autonomous driving, which is becoming a clear industry trend [1] - The passenger vehicle segment is experiencing relatively flat terminal insurance sales data, with automakers increasing promotional efforts to support performance expectations and new vehicle forecasts [1] - New vehicle launches and exports are expected to provide structural growth opportunities within the automotive sector, indicating potential for upward revisions in expectations [1] Group 2: Autonomous Driving Developments - Tesla plans to launch a paid full self-driving service in Austin, Texas, in June, with plans to expand to other cities by the end of the year, while preparing for a regulated full self-driving launch in Europe [2] - Companies like Pony.ai and WeRide are expanding their partnerships with Uber, accelerating the rollout of Robotaxi services globally [2] - The L4 technology has been at a low expectation point for a long time, but the capital market is quickly catching up with industry advancements, indicating potential for a new upward momentum in the sector [2] Group 3: Robotics Sector Analysis - The robotics sector has experienced a volatile market recently, with high expectations making further upward adjustments challenging, leading to a phase of validating individual stock performances [3] - Industry benchmark manufacturers have begun releasing initial large-scale procurement orders, with market focus shifting to mid-term prototype iterations and larger-scale production to validate industry trends [3] - Recommendations for investment include companies like BYD, Geely, and Xiamen King Long, as well as components suppliers such as Desay SV and Bertel [3]

Group 1 - The report highlights the price increase of chromium oxide green and the frequent safety issues in the chemical industry, emphasizing the need to focus on capacity reduction in the sector [3][4][6] - The chromium salt industry is expected to experience significant opportunities as demand shifts from traditional low-growth applications to high-growth sectors such as AI data centers and aerospace [4][5] - The supply-demand tension in the phosphate rock market is anticipated to continue, with existing production capacity facing delays and increasing demand from lithium iron phosphate batteries [4][5] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of new materials in the chemical industry, which is expected to see rapid growth driven by policy support and technological breakthroughs [33][38] - Key sectors to focus on include electronic information materials, aerospace materials, and renewable energy materials, with specific companies highlighted for their strong positions in these areas [34][36][38] - The hydrogen energy sector is projected to lead global consumption in 2024, with significant advancements in renewable energy hydrogen production [39] Group 3 - The report on Li Auto indicates a slight increase in gross margin and a year-on-year profit growth, with Q1 2025 revenue reaching 25.93 billion yuan [46][47] - The company has launched new models equipped with advanced driving assistance systems, enhancing its competitive edge in the electric vehicle market [49][50] - Li Auto's delivery volume is expected to grow in Q2 2025, with projected revenue between 32.5 billion and 33.8 billion yuan [50] Group 4 - The aluminum industry is experiencing a favorable macro environment, with potential easing of tariff pressures and improved inventory management during the off-season [54][56] - The report notes stable operating capacity in the electrolytic aluminum sector, with a slight increase in production costs due to rising alumina prices [56][57] - Demand for aluminum in various sectors, including construction and automotive, is expected to remain stable, although some segments may face seasonal slowdowns [56][57]

未经许可，不得转载或者引用。 投资要点 核心结论： 本周复盘总结：五月第四周交强险39.1万辆，环比上周/上月周度+2.7%/-11.5%。 本周细分板块涨跌幅排序：SW商用载客车(-0.1%) >SW摩托车及其他(-1.1%) > SＷ商用载货车 (-1.8%) >SW汽车零部件(-1.9%) > SW汽车（-4.1%）>SW乘用车(-9.5%)。本周已覆盖标的经纬 恒润-W、金龙汽车、新泉股份、中国重汽、德赛西威涨幅前五。 本周团队研究成果： 外发继峰股份深度《海外拐点临近，座椅加速放量》，汽车智能化6月投 资策略，客车5月报，理想一季报点评。 本周行业核心变化：1） 小鹏MONA M03 Max上市，搭载同级最强AI智能辅助驾驶，让高阶智 驾首次触达15万元以下市场； 2） 理想汽车2025Q1实现营收259.3亿元，同环比分别 +1.1%/-41.4%，其中车辆销售收入246.8亿元，同环比分别1.8%/-42.1%，归母净利润6.5亿元， 同环比分别+9.7%/-81.5%； 3） 尊界S800上市； 4） 爱柯迪发布定增（草案）申报稿，用于收 购卓尔博71%的股权，总对价为11.18亿元； 5） ...

摘要 ► 本 周数据： 2025年5月第4周（5.19-5.25）乘用车销量39.9万辆，同比+12.1%，环比+2.6%；新能源乘用车销量22.2万辆，同比+20.4%，环比+2.0%；新能源渗透率55.4%， 环比-0.4%。 ► 本周行情 ： 汽车板块本周表现弱于市场 本周（5月26日-5月30日）A股汽车板块下跌2.90%，在申万子行业中排名第30位，表现弱于沪深300（-1.49%）。细分板块中，汽车服务上涨2.13%，商用载客车、 商用载货车、汽车零部件、摩托车及其他、乘用车分别下跌0.48%、0.52%、1.79%、2.66%、5.59%。 ► 本周观点： 本月建议关注核心组合【吉利汽车、比亚迪、小鹏汽车、小米集团、伯特利、拓普集团、新泉股份、沪光股份、春风动力】。 ► 无人配送需求强劲 L4场景应用加速落地 需求端：人力缺口与成本压力驱动刚需。 快递业务量5年CAGR达22.5%，但快递员数量CAGR仅1.4%，2024年人均日配送量超100件；末端配送占物流成本60% （"最后五公里"），无人化可降本增效填补人力缺口。 供给端：技术规模化带来成本革命。 乘用车L2+渗透率超90%（2030年 ...

Market Overview - The brand 100 index experienced a slight rebound in May, closing at 1063.57 points with a monthly increase of 1.09% after a long upper shadow in the K-line [1][4] - The index initially rose due to unexpected financial policies and a pause in tariff announcements between China and the US, but later faced adjustments due to weak fundamental data and profit-taking [2][4] Key Performers - Notable weekly gainers included Nongfu Spring and Lao Feng Xiang, both exceeding 4% in weekly growth, while China Mobile saw a market value increase of 568 billion yuan [2][3] - In May, Dongfang Overseas International, China Life Insurance, and China Pacific Insurance had monthly gains exceeding 15%, with Dongfang Overseas leading at 34.05% [4] New Consumption Sector - The new consumption sector remains attractive, with companies like Nongfu Spring benefiting from strong brand recognition and a robust distribution network [5] - Nongfu Spring's tea beverage revenue is projected to surpass bottled water for the first time in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of over 90% for its Oriental Leaf brand [5] Strategic Developments - Lao Feng Xiang is enhancing its product offerings and channel strategies, focusing on younger demographics and collaborations with popular IPs [6] - Anta Sports is expanding its global presence through the acquisition of the leading outdoor brand, Jack Wolfskin [6] ETF Investment Opportunities - ETFs such as E Fund (513070) and the Hong Kong Consumption ETF (159735) are highlighted as effective tools for investing in the new consumption sector, with significant year-to-date gains [7][10] - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Theme Index includes major companies like Alibaba, Tencent, and Xiaomi, which collectively account for over 50% of the index weight [10][14] Long-term Outlook - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Index is expected to provide long-term investment value, reflecting the evolving consumption habits of younger generations and the global expansion of leading new consumption enterprises [14]

点 击 蓝 字 关 注 我 们 本文全文共 2318 字，阅读全文约需 7 分钟 中国汽车流通协会乘用车市场信息联席分会（简称乘联分会)联合上海安路勤企业管理咨询有限公司(简称 安路勤)联合发布的乘用车智能化指数，旨在定期监控国产乘用车市场的智能化发展进程，并通过历史数据比 对，判断未来发展趋势。 2025年4月乘用车智能化指数为31.9。其中智能座舱指数为34.4；智能驾驶指数为34.5；舱外智能指数为 17.0。 通过对2025年1月起的乘用车智能化指数进行追溯计算，可以看到最近4个月来的乘用车智能化指数走势 变化。 目前，乘用车智能化指数有三个分项指数，分别为 智能座舱指数、智能驾驶指数 和 舱外智能化指数 。 2025年4月智能座舱指数为34.4，较上月出现小幅度下滑。 2025年4月智能驾驶指数为34.5，环比小幅下降。 2025年4月舱外智能指数为17.0，同样也较上月有所下滑。 数据来源： 以乘联分会每月发布的《乘用车市场信息联席分会月报表 ( 零售表 ) 》为销量数据来 源，结合安路勤智车研栈智能装备监测数据，每月通过全国各主要城市各品牌 4S 店抽样调查的各车型数 据拟合而成 。 指数构成： ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - In Q1 2025, Geely Automobile achieved revenue of 72.495 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 264% [12][4] - The growth in performance is attributed to record sales, strong growth in the new energy business, product structure optimization, and the realization of scale effects [12][4] - The company sold 704,000 vehicles in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 47.9%, with new energy vehicles, fuel vehicles, and export sales increasing by 135.4%, 10.0%, and 1.7% respectively [12][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Geely's Q1 2025 revenue was 72.495 billion yuan, up 25% year-on-year, and net profit was 5.67 billion yuan, up 264% year-on-year [12][4] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 15.8%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the expense ratio decreased by 2.7 percentage points to 11.5% [12][4] Sales and Market Position - The company plans to launch 10 new models in 2025, with expectations to exceed the annual sales target of 2.71 million vehicles [13][12] - The Galaxy brand saw a strong performance with a year-on-year growth of 214%, significantly boosting new energy vehicle sales [12][4] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 326.904 billion yuan, 392.285 billion yuan, and 470.742 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 36.1%, 20.0%, and 20.0% [13][15] - Net profit projections for the same period are 14.936 billion yuan, 18.612 billion yuan, and 23.037 billion yuan, with growth rates of -10.2%, 24.6%, and 23.8% respectively [13][15]

Core Viewpoint - The financial troubles of Jinan Qiancheng, a key BYD dealer in Shandong, have raised significant market concerns, particularly regarding the inability to fulfill prepaid services and vehicle registration issues due to collateralized certificates [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Challenges - BYD reported a record net profit of 9.155 billion yuan in Q1 2025, doubling year-on-year, with sales reaching 680,000 units, maintaining its position as the global leader in new energy vehicle sales [3]. - Despite strong financial results, BYD's inventory increased from 87.7 billion yuan at the end of 2023 to 154.4 billion yuan by the end of Q1 2025, marking a 33% rise in just three months [3]. - The company's accounts payable reached 396.1 billion yuan by the end of Q1 2025, with a significant increase in the accounts payable turnover period, which was 125 days in 2024, below the industry average of 182 days [3][4]. Group 2: Market Strategies and Impacts - BYD's aggressive pricing strategy included a collective price reduction of up to 53,000 yuan for 22 models, which has led to approximately 100,000 new orders during the May Day holiday [4]. - However, this pricing strategy has resulted in a significant decline in the second-hand car market, with the average depreciation rate for new energy vehicles dropping below 45% in the first four months of 2025 [4]. - Analysts suggest that BYD's approach of locking in new customers through subsidies while allowing the value of old cars to plummet may undermine long-term consumer confidence in the brand [5]. Group 3: Future Prospects and Innovations - BYD is increasing its investment in solid-state batteries and smart driving technologies, with R&D spending reaching 14.2 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 34% increase year-on-year [5]. - The company plans to launch its semi-solid state battery with an energy density of 360 Wh/kg by 2026 and is expanding its international presence, including a factory in Brazil set to begin production by the end of 2026 [5].