Core Viewpoint - Angel Yeast (600298.SH) announced plans to acquire a 55% stake in Hohhot Tongtang Technology Co., Ltd. (Shengtong Sugar Industry) for 506 million yuan, aiming to enhance its sugar production capabilities and optimize its industrial structure [1][2]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition involves purchasing 55% of Shengtong Sugar Industry from Zheng Jianchen at a price of 2.30 yuan per share, totaling 506 million yuan [1]. - Shengtong Sugar Industry, established in 2017, focuses on beet sugar production and has an annual production capacity of 125,000 tons of edible sugar and 35,000 tons of molasses [1][2]. - The valuation report indicates that the total equity of Shengtong Sugar Industry is assessed at 919 million yuan, reflecting a 63.8% appreciation [1]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - Post-acquisition, Shengtong Sugar Industry will become a subsidiary of Angel Yeast, contributing to the company's consolidated financial statements and supporting the development of its sugar segment and downstream industries [2]. - The acquisition is expected to enhance Angel Yeast's sustainable profitability and overall competitiveness in the market [2]. Group 3: Performance Commitment - The acquisition agreement includes a performance guarantee, requiring Shengtong Sugar Industry to achieve a combined net profit and unlevered free cash flow of no less than 173 million yuan from 2025 to 2027 [2]. - If performance targets are not met, the commitment party must provide cash compensation; conversely, exceeding targets will result in rewards for Angel Yeast [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract rose with a weekly increase of about 0.86%. Internationally, the monsoon season has led to a good supply outlook in major Asian sugar - producing countries, casting a shadow over the raw sugar market price. However, news of Coca - Cola changing its formula, significant year - on - year increase in China's recent imports, and potential buyers like Pakistan, the Philippines, and Iran have improved demand to some extent. Domestically, the price discrepancy between domestic and international markets has opened the profit window for out - of - quota imports, releasing import pressure. In June, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a significant year - on - year increase, which suppressed sugar prices. On the demand side, the summer consumption peak has led to inventory - building needs in the food and beverage industry and a recovery in seasonal consumption such as cold drinks, providing some support for prices. Overall, the downward trend of the external market has slowed down, and its suppressing effect on domestic prices has weakened. Coupled with the domestic peak consumption season, the sugar futures price is expected to fluctuate upwards in the short term, but the increase in imports and the expected global supply surplus will limit the upside potential. It is recommended to go long at low prices with a light position in the short term and control risks. Future factors to monitor include consumption and exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract price rose with a weekly increase of about 0.86%. The external market is under pressure from supply surplus expectations but supported by demand improvement. Domestically, import pressure and demand support co - exist, and the price is expected to fluctuate upwards in the short term. Future factors to watch are consumption and Brazilian/Indian sugar exports [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The price of the US Sugar 10 - month contract rose with a weekly increase of about 1.15%. As of July 8, 2025, the non - commercial long position of ICE No. 11 sugar was 201,975 contracts, a 2.08% week - on - week increase; the non - commercial short position was 262,426 contracts, a 0.88% week - on - week decrease; the non - commercial net position was - 60,451 contracts, a 9.66% week - on - week increase. The net position of the top 20 in the Zhengzhou sugar futures was - 4,166 contracts, and the Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts were 20,842 contracts [9][19]. - **Spot Market**: As of July 25, the sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 6,120 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,910 yuan/ton. As of July 22, 2025, the estimated import processing price (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) of Brazilian sugar was 5,665 yuan/ton, a 0.49% week - on - week decrease; the in - quota price was 4,460 yuan/ton, also a 0.49% week - on - week decrease. The estimated import processing price (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) of Thai sugar was 5,743 yuan/ton, a 0.50% week - on - week decrease; the in - quota price was 4,520 yuan/ton, a 0.48% week - on - week decrease. As of last week, the in - quota profit of imported Brazilian sugar was 1,480 yuan/ton, a 0.07% week - on - week decrease; the out - of - quota profit was 275 yuan/ton, a 1.85% week - on - week increase. The in - quota profit of imported Thai sugar was 1,420 yuan/ton, a 0.07% week - on - week decrease; the out - of - quota profit was 197 yuan/ton, a 3.14% week - on - week increase [24][27][32]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side**: By the end of May 2025, the 2024/25 sugar - making season had ended, and the national sugar production was 1.11621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 119,890 tons or 12.03%. As of May 30, 2025, the industrial inventory was 304,830 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32,210 tons. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a significant year - on - year increase, but the cumulative import from January to June was only 1.04 million tons, a 19.7% year - on - year decrease [36][40][44]. - **Demand Side**: As of May 31, 2025, the cumulative national sugar production was 1.11621 million tons, a 0.49% month - on - month increase; the cumulative sales volume was 811,380 tons, a 12.00% month - on - month increase; the sales rate was 72.69%, a 11.45% month - on - month increase. As of June 30, 2025, the monthly output of refined sugar was 337,000 tons, a 10.61% month - on - month decrease; the monthly output of soft drinks was 1.84285 million tons, a 14.24% month - on - month increase [48][53]. 3.4 Option and Stock - Futures Correlation Market - **Option Market**: The implied volatility of at - the - money options in the sugar market this week is presented in the chart of the implied volatility of the underlying of the Sugar 2509 contract [54]. - **Stock Market**: The chart of the price - to - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry is provided [58].

Core Viewpoint - Guangxi is the largest sugarcane planting base and sugar production area in China, playing a crucial role in ensuring national sugar supply security. Guangxi Agricultural Investment Sugar Industry Group Co., Ltd. (Guangnong Sugar) emphasizes the integration of party building and production to demonstrate its responsibilities as a state-owned enterprise [1]. Group 1: Party Building and Community Engagement - Guangnong Sugar has signed cooperation agreements with 27 party branches and 29 village committees, focusing on community development and agricultural support, including road repairs and technical training for farmers [2][4]. - The company has established a "Party Building and Community Co-construction" initiative, which aims to enhance sugarcane production and farmer income, with expected increases of 5%-10% in total sugarcane yield for participating villages [2][3]. Group 2: Operational Strategies and Management - To address the challenges faced by sugar enterprises, Guangnong Sugar has implemented a "Sugar Industry Pioneer Grid Management" initiative, creating a structured network to support farmers and enhance production efficiency [3][4]. - The company has expanded its sugarcane planting area to 1.5256 million acres for the 2024/25 season, an increase of 160,300 acres compared to the previous season, ensuring a solid foundation for production growth [4]. Group 3: Workforce Development and Training - Guangnong Sugar focuses on strengthening its workforce by enhancing the capabilities of party organization leaders and improving the quality of party member development, particularly among frontline workers and technical experts [7][8]. - The company has adopted a dual training model for party personnel, combining internal training with external programs to improve their skills and effectiveness in supporting the company's goals [7]. Group 4: Market Expansion and Product Development - Guangnong Sugar's subsidiary, Guangxi Qiaowang Paper Mold Products Co., Ltd., has successfully entered international markets, showcasing its environmentally friendly paper tableware at a major trade fair in Dubai and establishing preliminary cooperation with over 20 international clients [8]. - The company is committed to market expansion and has formed a "Market Sales Assault Vanguard Team" to drive sales initiatives, leveraging the leadership of party members to enhance market outreach [8][9].

1. Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report - Date: July 25, 2025 - Researchers: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [2][3] 2. Market Review and Operational Suggestions Futures Market Conditions - SR509 closed at 5866 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 0.69%, with an increase of 9969 contracts in open interest [7]. - SR601 closed at 5668 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan or 0.32%, with an increase of 7680 contracts in open interest [7]. - US Sugar 10 closed at 16.27 cents/pound, down 0.01 cents or -0.06%, with an increase of 4799 contracts in open interest [7]. - US Sugar 03 closed at 16.91 cents/pound, up 0.01 cents or 0.06%, with an increase of 2469 contracts in open interest [7]. Market Trends - On Wednesday, New York raw sugar futures fluctuated weakly. The main October contract closed down 0.06% to 16.27 cents/pound. The London ICE white sugar futures' main October contract closed down 0.2% to $471.40/ton. There were rumors that India might allow new - season sugar exports due to a bumper new - season sugarcane crop, which affected raw sugar prices. However, the current market sugar price is not high enough to support Indian exports [7]. - The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar closed up in a fluctuating manner. The 09 contract closed at 5866 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 0.69%, and the open interest increased by 9969 contracts. The spot prices in domestic producing areas slightly decreased. The price of Nanning sugar was 6070 yuan, and that of Kunming sugar was 5860 yuan. Recently, the domestic commodity market rose generally due to the anti - involution theme, and Zhengzhou sugar was slightly affected, showing a stronger trend than raw sugar [8]. 3. Industry News - Coca - Cola will launch a signature cola product using sucrose in the US market this fall, confirming a recent statement by President Donald Trump [11]. - The European crop monitoring agency MARS lowered the 2025 EU sugar beet yield forecast to 74.8 tons per hectare, down from last month's forecast of 76.3 tons per hectare, but still 2% higher than the average of the past five years [11]. - In June 2025, China imported a total of 11.55 tons of syrup and premixed powder (tax codes 1702.90, 2106.906), a year - on - year decrease of 10.35 tons. From January to June 2025, the total import was 45.91 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 49.24 tons. As of June in the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, the total import was 109.83 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 26.95 tons [11]. - In June 2025, China imported 42 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 39.23 tons. From January to June 2025, China imported 105.08 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 25.12 tons, a decline of 19.29%. As of June in the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, China imported 251.26 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 64.93 tons, a decline of 20.54% [11]. - In June 2025, China's dairy product output was 2.546 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%; from January to June, it was 14.33 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. In June 2025, China's beverage output was 18.428 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%; from January to June, it was 93.089 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.9% [11]. 4. Data Overview Trading Volume and Open Interest of Top 20 Seats in Zhengzhou Sugar's Main Contract - The total trading volume was 332,449 lots, an increase of 87,359 lots. The total long - position volume was 250,320 lots, an increase of 8,473 lots. The total short - position volume was 237,085 lots, an increase of 7,251 lots [24]. - Among them, Dongzheng Futures (on behalf of clients) had the highest trading volume of 76,875 lots, an increase of 24,293 lots; CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) had the highest long - position volume of 76,332 lots, an increase of 3,151 lots; COFCO Futures (on behalf of clients) had the highest short - position volume of 54,245 lots, an increase of 3,136 lots [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - International sugar market has a supply - side overhang due to favorable supply prospects in major Asian sugar - producing countries during the monsoon season, which keeps the raw sugar market price under pressure. In the domestic market, there is a divergence between domestic and foreign price strengths. The profit window for out - of - quota imports is open, and the import pressure has been released. In June, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a significant year - on - year increase, suppressing sugar prices. On the demand side, during the summer consumption peak, the food and beverage industry has inventory replenishment needs, and seasonal consumption of cold drinks has recovered, providing some support for prices. Overall, domestic demand is rising, domestic futures price performance is stronger than the overseas market, with multiple factors at play, and the market is expected to move in a volatile manner. It is recommended to keep an eye on arrivals at ports and summer consumption, and for now, it is advisable to wait and see [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5,866 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 342,009 lots, an increase of 9,969 lots. The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 20,940, down 158. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 8,187 lots. The total of valid warehouse receipt forecasts for sugar is 0. The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,460 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4,520 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,665 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 5,743 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,910 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Nanning, it is 6,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou, it is 6,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares. The planting area of sugarcane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, an increase of 86.92 million tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, a decrease of 81.43 million tons. The national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points. The monthly sugar import volume is 420,000 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons. Brazil's total sugar exports are 3.359 billion tons, an increase of 1.1024 billion tons. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,480 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 1,420 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan. Outside the quota (50% tariff), the price difference for Brazilian sugar is 275 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; for Thai sugar, it is 197 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 2.9%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.79%, an increase of 1.33 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 8.79%, an increase of 1.34 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 4.62%, a decrease of 0.71 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.92%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points [2]. Industry News - The Brazilian Sugarcane Technology Center reported that the average yield and quality of sugarcane in the central - southern region declined in June. On Wednesday, the ICE raw sugar October contract closed down 0.06%, while the domestic sugar 2509 contract closed up 0.69%. Internationally, with the arrival of the monsoon season, the supply outlook for major Asian sugar - producing countries is favorable, and the expectation of oversupply has been weighing on the raw sugar market price [2].

Core Viewpoint - Guangnong Sugar Industry has received approval from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange for its application to issue shares to specific investors, pending final approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) [1] Fundraising Details - The company plans to raise a total of up to 26 million yuan, with net proceeds allocated to the "Yun'ao Logistics Sugar Storage Intelligent Distribution Center Phase II Expansion Project" and to supplement working capital and repay bank loans [1][2] - The total investment for the Yun'ao Logistics project is approximately 20.79 million yuan, while the amount for working capital and loan repayment is 6.6 million yuan, totaling 27.39 million yuan [2] Issuance Conditions - The issuance will target no more than 35 specific investors, including securities investment funds, securities companies, trust companies, financial companies, insurance institutional investors, and qualified foreign institutional investors [2] - The final list of investors will be determined after approval from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and the CSRC [2][4] Share Issuance Specifications - The shares will be issued at a price not lower than 80% of the average trading price over the 20 trading days prior to the pricing date [4] - The number of shares issued will not exceed 30% of the total share capital before the issuance, which is estimated to be up to 120,095,945 shares [4] Control and Ownership - Guangxi Rural Investment Group, the controlling shareholder, holds 38.23% of the company’s shares, and the issuance will not change the control structure, as the ownership percentage will decrease to 29.41% post-issuance [4] - The actual controller of the company remains the Guangxi Autonomous Region State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [4] Underwriting Information - The lead underwriter for this issuance is Guohai Securities Co., Ltd., with representatives Jiang Yaping and Li Jinhai [5]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report [1] - Date: July 24, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market Quotes** - SR509 closed at 5834 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan or 0.15%, with a position of 332,040 contracts, a decrease of 2,120 contracts [7] - SR601 closed at 5656 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.02%, with a position of 126,227 contracts, an increase of 2,396 contracts [7] - ICE US Sugar 11 Oct closed at 16.26 cents/lb, down 0.11 cents or 0.67%, with a position of 392,620 contracts, a decrease of 4,151 contracts [7] - ICE US Sugar 11 Mar closed at 16.88 cents/lb, down 0.15 cents or 0.88%, with a position of 215,397 contracts, a decrease of 1,492 contracts [7] - **Market Analysis** - New York raw sugar futures trended weaker on Tuesday. The market rumor that India may allow new - season sugar exports due to a bumper cane crop affected the raw sugar price, but the current low price is not enough to support Indian exports [7] - Zhengzhou sugar futures' main contract closed higher. Recently, the domestic commodity market rose due to the "anti - involution" theme, and Zhengzhou sugar was slightly affected, showing a stronger trend than raw sugar. In the third quarter, the supply of refined sugar will gradually increase, which will suppress the domestic sugar price [8] Group 3: Industry News - Coca - Cola will launch a signature cola product using sucrose in the US market this fall [11] - The European Union's crop monitoring agency MARS lowered its 2025 sugar beet yield forecast to 74.8 tons per hectare from 76.3 tons last month, but it is still 2% higher than the five - year average [11] - In June 2025, China imported 115,500 tons of syrup and premixes, a year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons. From January to June 2025, the total import was 459,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 492,400 tons. From the 2024/25 sugar season to June, the total import was 1,098,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 269,500 tons [11] - In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 392,300 tons. From January to June 2025, the total import was 1,050,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 251,200 tons or 19.29%. From the 2024/25 sugar season to June, the total import was 2,512,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 649,300 tons or 20.54% [11] - In June 2025, China's dairy product output was 2.546 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%. From January to June, the total output was 14.33 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3% [11] - In June 2025, China's beverage output was 18.428 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. From January to June, the total output was 93.089 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.9% [11] Group 4: Data Overview - **Transaction and Position Data of Top 20 Seats in Zhengzhou Sugar Futures' Main Contract** - Dongzheng Futures (for clients) had the highest trading volume of 52,582 lots, an increase of 3,443 lots [22] - CITIC Futures (for clients) had the highest long position of 73,181 contracts, an increase of 1,840 contracts [22] - COFCO Futures (for clients) had the highest short position of 51,109 contracts, an increase of 1,037 contracts [22]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has high expectations for increased production in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season in India and Thailand, which suppresses sugar prices. However, due to the slightly slow production progress in Brazil currently and a high sugar - ethanol ratio, the expectation of a decline in Brazil's new - season production in the overseas market is continuously increasing, causing price fluctuations after a sharp drop in the overseas market. The domestic market is slightly stronger with the opening of the out - of - quota profit window, but the rebound strength may be limited [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Sugar Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy - **Price Range Forecast**: The predicted monthly price range for sugar is 5700 - 5900, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 4.94% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 0.1% [3]. - **Inventory Management Strategy**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about sugar price drops, they can short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) at 5850 - 5900 with a 25% hedging ratio. They can also sell call options (SR509C6000) at 30 - 40 with a 50% hedging ratio to collect premiums and lock in the spot selling price [3]. - **Procurement Management Strategy**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and aiming to purchase according to orders, they can buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) at 5750 - 5800 with a 50% hedging ratio. They can sell put options (SR509P5700) at 10 - 15 with a 75% hedging ratio to collect premiums and lock in the spot sugar purchase price [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - The high expectation of increased production in India and Thailand in the 25/26 season suppresses sugar prices, while the potential decline in Brazil's production in the new season causes price fluctuations in the overseas market. The domestic market is slightly stronger but with limited rebound strength [4]. 3.3利多解读 (Positive Factors) - **Sales and Inventory in Guangxi**: As of the end of June, Guangxi's cumulative sugar sales reached 514.06 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 61.44 million tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 79.51%, a year - on - year increase of 6.29 percentage points. In June, single - month sugar sales were 49.53 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.73 million tons. Industrial inventory was 132.44 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.08 million tons [5]. - **Indian Sugar Inventory**: The National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories (NFCSF) in India expects the ending sugar inventory in the 2024/25 season to be between 4.8 - 5 million tons, sufficient to meet domestic sugar consumption from October to November 2025 [5]. - **Import Restrictions**: China has suspended imports of Thai syrup and premixed powder [5]. - **Brazilian Production**: As of the first half of May in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 76.714 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.466 million tons (20.24%); the cumulative sugar production was 3.989 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.17 million tons (22.68%) [5]. - **Syrup and Premixed Powder Imports**: In June, the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,500 tons, a significant year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons [6]. - **Brazilian Biofuel Policy**: Brazil has increased the mandatory ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30% and the biodiesel ratio in diesel from 14% to 15% [6]. - **Coca - Cola and Pepsi - Cola**: Coca - Cola plans to re - use sugar as a beverage additive in the US and launch new sugar - containing cola products, and Pepsi - Cola may follow suit [8]. 3.4利空解读 (Negative Factors) - **Guangxi Sugar Production**: In the 2024/25 season, the cumulative cane crushing volume in Guangxi was 48.5954 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5847 million tons; the mixed sugar production was 6.465 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 283,600 tons; the sugar production rate was 13.30%, a year - on - year increase of 1.22 percentage points [8]. - **Brazilian Sugar Production Forecast**: Analysis agency JOB expects Brazil's sugar production in the 25/26 season to increase by 5% to 46 million tons [8]. - **Thai Sugar Production**: Thailand's sugar production in the 24/25 season is expected to increase to 10.39 million tons [8]. - **Indian Sugar Production Forecast**: Due to favorable monsoon conditions and an increase in the minimum cane purchase price, the sugar production in India's 2025/26 season is expected to strongly recover to about 35 million tons [8]. - **Sugar Imports**: In June, the sugar import volume was 424,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 397,000 tons, and the out - of - quota import profit window has opened [8]. 3.5 Price Data - **Sugar Basis**: On July 22, 2025, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 397, with a daily increase of 7 and a weekly decrease of 28; the basis of Kunming - SR01 was 267, with a daily increase of 17 and a weekly decrease of 3 [9]. - **Sugar Futures Prices**: On July 23, 2025, the closing price of SR01 was 5656, with a daily increase of 0.05% and a weekly increase of 0.35%; the closing price of SR09 was 5834, with a daily increase of 0.19% and a weekly increase of 0.45% [9]. - **Sugar Spot Prices**: On July 23, 2025, the price of Nanning sugar was 6050, with no daily or weekly change; the price of Kunming sugar was 5920, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 15 [10]. - **Sugar Import Prices**: On July 23, 2025, the in - quota import price of Brazilian sugar was 4482, with a daily decrease of 101 and a weekly increase of 68; the out - of - quota import price was 5693, with a daily decrease of 133 and a weekly increase of 88 [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The domestic demand for white sugar is recovering, and the performance of domestic futures prices is stronger than that of the external market. With multiple factors at play, the overall trend is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the arrival of goods at ports and summer consumption. For now, it is advisable to wait and see [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for white sugar is 5,834 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 11 yuan; the main contract position is 332,040 lots, a decrease of 2,120 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 21,098, a decrease of 261. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -8,305 lots, a decrease of 5,767 lots. The effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0. The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,482 yuan/ton, a decrease of 101 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4,542 yuan/ton, a decrease of 102 yuan [2] Spot Market - The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (with a 50% tariff) is 5,693 yuan/ton, a decrease of 133 yuan; that of imported Thai sugar is 5,772 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 133 yuan. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,920 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning it is 6,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; and in Liuzhou it is 6,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares. The sown area of sugar cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2] Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, an increase of 86.92 million tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, a decrease of 81.43 million tons. The national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points. The monthly import volume of sugar is 420,000 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons. The total monthly sugar exports from Brazil are 3.359 billion tons, an increase of 1.1024 billion tons [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 2.9%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for white sugar is 7.46%, a decrease of 0.92 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 7.45%, a decrease of 0.93 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility is 5.33%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.03%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points [2] Industry News - Coca - Cola will launch a signature cola product using sucrose in the US market this fall. On Tuesday, the ICE raw sugar October contract closed down 0.61%, while the white sugar 2509 contract closed up 0.15%. Internationally, with the arrival of the monsoon season, the supply outlook for major Asian sugar - producing countries is good, and the expectation of loose supply has been weighing on raw sugar prices [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The domestic demand for sugar is recovering, and the price of sugar futures in China is stronger than that in the international market. With multiple factors at play, the overall sugar price is expected to move in a volatile manner. It is recommended to wait and see for now, and pay attention to the arrival of imported sugar and summer consumption [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract is 5,823 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 334,160 lots, down 2,993 lots [2]. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 21,359, down 78; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -2,538 lots [2]. - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,583 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4,644 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,920 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning it is 6,050 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Liuzhou it is 6,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sugar - cane planting area in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. Industry Situation - The national cumulative sugar production is 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 54,900 tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 8.1138 million tons, an increase of 869,200 tons [2]. - The national industrial sugar inventory is 3.0483 million tons, a decrease of 814,300 tons; the national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points [2]. - The monthly sugar import volume is 420,000 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons; the monthly sugar export volume from Brazil is 3.359 million tons, an increase of 1.1024 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 2.9%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for sugar is 8.38%, an increase of 2.22 percentage points [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 5.26%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.02%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points [2]. Industry News - Brazil exported 2.34472471 million tons of sugar in the first half of July, with an average daily export volume of 167,480.34 tons, a 2% increase compared to the average daily export volume in July last year [2].