电子 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2026 年 1 月 5 日 我们认为伴随 AI驱动 DRAM 需求提振及国产 DRAM 厂商进展融资进程 提速，国内 DRAM 全产业链有望实现加速成长，建议关注如下：【设备】： 中微公司、拓荆科技、北方华创、迈为股份、精智达、中科飞测、盛美 上海；【材料】：深南电路、华海诚科、联瑞新材、雅克科技、兴福电 子；【CBA DRAM CMOS】：晶合集成；【封测】汇成股份、深科技； 【利基 DRAM 设计】兆易创新、北京君正。 强于大市 存储行业点评 长鑫科技披露招股书，兆易创新登陆 H 股在即， 国产 DRAM 供应链再提速 2025 年 12 月 30 日晚，长鑫科技首次披露招股说明书，同时，兆易创新公 告港股 IPO 最新进度。我们认为伴随 AI 驱动 DRAM 需求提振及国产 DRAM 厂商融资进程提速，产业链有望实现加速成长，给予行业 强于大市 的评级。 支撑评级的要点 投资建议 评级面临的主要风险 IPO 进度不及预期、产能扩张爬坡不及预期、AI 等领域需求不及预期、 新技术突破不及预期、存储市场周期波动。 相关研究报告 《电子行业 2026 年年度策略》202 ...

Market Overview - The electronic industry index decreased by 0.19% during the week of December 29, 2025, to January 2, 2026, with semiconductors down 0.20% and consumer electronics down 0.14%, while optical and optoelectronic sectors increased by 1.60% [1][2] - Hong Kong stocks rebounded strongly on January 2, 2026, with SMIC rising by 5.70% and Hua Hong Semiconductor increasing by 13.79% [1][2] - The US stock market showed slight recovery on January 2, 2026, with the Nasdaq down 1.52% for the week and the Hang Seng Tech index up 4.31%. The US storage sector saw significant gains, with SK Hynix up 13.02%, Micron up 10.80%, and SanDisk up 10.07% [1][2] Industry Updates - The upcoming CES 2026 will take place from January 6 to January 9, 2026, and for the first time, the national subsidy will include smart glasses, providing a 15% subsidy based on the product sales price [3] - Domestic GPU companies are preparing for a listing wave in Hong Kong, with Kunlun Core announcing its listing application on January 1, 2026. On January 2, 2026, Biren Technology listed in Hong Kong with a maximum increase of over 118% on its first day [4] - Samsung will not expand production of DDR4, leading to a significant increase in DDR4 spot prices, which are expected to continue rising in 2026. Changxin Technology's IPO has been accepted, aiming to raise 29.5 billion, with projected revenues of 55 to 58 billion for 2025 [4] Corporate Actions - Hua Hong Semiconductor announced plans to acquire 97.4988% of Huali Micro on December 31, 2025. TSMC is expected to raise advanced process prices for the next four years due to tight capacity below 3nm, with new pricing effective from January 1, 2026 [5] Investment Recommendations - The holiday period has seen favorable conditions for price increases and computing power, with recommended beneficiaries including SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Beijing Junzheng, Northern Huachuang, Zhongwei Company, Demingli, Shannon Chip Creation, and Zhaoyi Innovation [6]

2026年首个交易日，全球科技股延续强势行情，半导体及存储板块成为核心推手。 公司方面，据上市公司互动平台表示， 全球半导体开年集体爆发，两大存储巨头涨超10%，外资投行大幅上调全年价格预期，长鑫上市扩产也 有望带来设备厂商想象力，挖到这只A股存储龙头还直接投资了其23亿元股份 美股市场中，闪迪单日大涨近16%，美光科技涨超10%，光刻机龙头阿斯麦涨超8%，台积电更是大涨超 5%并创历史新高；韩股方面，三星电子受益于HBM4产品获客户认可，股价飙升7.2%刷新收盘纪录。 港股市场同样不甘示弱，"国产GPU第一股"壁仞科技首秀涨75%，华虹半导体涨超9%，中芯国际港股 涨超5%，百度官宣昆仑芯申请赴港上市后涨超9%。 消息面上，海外投资大行称得益于半导体企业2026年资本开支潜在提升空间，台积电、阿斯麦业绩有望 再超预期。 此外，摩根士丹利表示，2026年存储器市场正在收紧而非放松，制造约束与更强需求的碰撞将推动价格 持续走高，该行已将2026年DRAM平均价格预期上调62%，NAND平均价格预期上调75%。台股存储厂 商旺宏更是直接宣布，2026年第一季度将NAND产品价格上调100%，NOR产品价格上调50 ...

更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 全球存储产业链大涨解读及长鑫招股书梳理 20260104 摘要 Q&A 近期存储行业的市场表现如何? 近期存储行业在美股市场表现强劲,美光和闪迪的股价分别上涨超过10%和15%。 主要原因是市场对 2026年第一季度合约价格涨幅预期上调。自 2025年 9 月以来, 存储价格已经开始上涨,并在 2025年第一季度延续这一趋势。目前,NAND 和 DRAM 的涨幅均超出市场预期。 更多一 存储市场供需紧张推动价格超预期上涨,DRAM 和 NAND 闪存价格在 2025 . 年一季度持续上涨,部分 DRAM 产品涨幅高达 70%,NAND 闪存预计上涨 33%-38%，远超此前预期。 三星定价策略对存储行业影响显著,其根据供需情况调整合约价格,并设 ● 定高于市场预期的价格,同时 H200 出货拉动存储需求,预计带来约 200 亿颗芯片需求,上调 2026年 Q1 存储价格预测。 美光公司一季度业绩远超预期,预计收入中值为 187 亿美元,毛利率高达 . 68%,EPS 远超预期,受益于产品价格大幅上涨,预计 2026年利润或达 500 亿美元，估值有较大 ...

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of the A-share market as of December 31, 2025, shows the CSI All Share (excluding ST stocks) with a PE of 21.6x and a PB of 1.8x, positioned at the 81st and 42nd historical percentiles respectively [2] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index has a PE of 11.8x and a PB of 1.3x, at the 63rd and 43rd historical percentiles [2] - The CSI 300 Index has a PE of 14.2x and a PB of 1.5x, at the 65th and 39th historical percentiles [2] - The CSI 500 Index shows a PE of 33.8x and a PB of 2.3x, at the 64th and 51st historical percentiles [2] - The ChiNext Index has a PE of 40.8x and a PB of 5.5x, at the 35th and 63rd historical percentiles [2] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th historical percentile include Real Estate, Retail, and IT Services [2] - Industries with PB valuations above the 85th historical percentile include Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communications [2] - Industries with both PE and PB valuations below the 15th historical percentile include Medical Services and White Goods [2] Industry Sentiment Tracking New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, the average price of silicon wafers increased by 10.8%, while battery cell prices rose by 11.8% [2] - The price of cobalt increased by 6.8% and nickel by 5.5%, while lithium carbonate prices rose by 0.9% [2] Technology TMT - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 2.2%, and the Taiwan Semiconductor Index increased by 5.1% [3] - The DXI Index (DRAM output value) increased by 7.2%, driven by strong demand for high-performance products related to AI computing [3] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar increased by 0.1%, while iron ore prices rose by 1.5% [3] - The national cement price index decreased by 0.3% [3] Consumption - The average price of live pigs increased by 10.4%, while wholesale pork prices rose by 1.4% [3] - The price of Moutai liquor decreased by 3.5% to 1505 CNY [3] Cyclical Industries - The price of copper increased by 2.7%, while aluminum rose by 2.2% [3] - Brent crude oil futures closed at 60.8 USD per barrel, down 2.4% [3]

[Table_StockNameRptType] 策略研究 月度报告 春风送暖 [Table_RptDate] 报告日期： 2026-1-4 [Table_Author] 分析师：郑小霞 执业证书号：S0010520080007 电话：13391921291 邮箱：zhengxx@hazq.com 分析师：刘超 执业证书号：S0010520090001 电话：13269985073 邮箱：liuchao@hazq.com 分析师：张运智 执业证书号：S0010523070001 电话：13699270398 邮箱： zhangyz@hazq.com 分析师：陈博 执业证书号：S0010525070002 电话：18811134382 邮箱：chenbo@hazq.com 相关报告 1.策略季报《万境皆含春意—2026 年 一季度 A 股市场研判及配置机会》 2025-12-28 2.策略周报《1 月市场和行业有何日历 效应？》2025-12-21 4.策略周报《换手率对当下成长行情 节奏如何指示？》2025-12-14 5.年度策略《破晓：从预期到盈利的切 换—2026 年 A 股投资策略》2025-12- ...

来，咱们打个赌，你猜去年涨得最凶的美股是哪家？不是英伟达，不是特斯拉，也不是那些天天上热搜的AI公司—— 答案是闪迪 。就是大家可 能都用过的那个U盘、存储卡品牌，2025年股价涨了559%，成了标普500指数里的股王。 我当时第一反应是：又错过了一个亿！这到底是什么神仙走势啊？要知道，大家天天盯着的英伟达去年涨幅也就170%左右。 ▲ 戳蓝 色字关注我们！ "在商业世界里，看清趋势比追赶潮流更重要，那些支撑潮流的基础设施，往往藏着最确定的机会。——彼得·德鲁克" 什么意思？ 训练就是教AI学习，推理就是让AI干活。 推理场景下，你得实时调用海量数据，存储的读写速度直接决定AI能不能快速响应。 再给你们讲个更扎心的：前段时间一个做AI数据中心的朋友跟我吐槽，他们花大价钱买了一堆GPU服务器，结果发现企业级SSD供不应求，交付 周期从过去的几周延长到现在的几个月。 更夸张的是，前十大涨幅股票里，存储企业直接包揽了前四名—— 闪迪第一，西部数据第二，美光第三，希捷第四。 这是什么概念？就是说你 去年2月份如果买了1万块钱闪迪，现在账户上躺着将近7万。 要知道！凡是出现这种集体暴涨的行业，一定不是偶然，背后肯定藏着 ...

Market Overview - On the first trading day of 2026, US stock indices showed relatively calm closing fluctuations, with significant inflows into tech stocks and a collective surge in Chinese concept stocks, buoyed by a strong start in the Hong Kong market [1][3] - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.19% to 6858.47 points, the Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.03% to 23235.63 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.66% to 48382.39 points [1] Chinese Tech Stocks Performance - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index surged by 4.38%, marking the largest single-day increase since May 12 of the previous year [3] - Notable Chinese tech stocks included Baidu, which rose by 15.03%, Alibaba up by 6.25%, Tencent ADR increasing by 5.23%, and Netease rising by 7.22% [3] AI Sector Developments - Investors are eagerly awaiting developments from DeepSeek, which recently published a paper on a new training method called "manifold constraint hyperconnection" (mHC), seen as a significant breakthrough [3] - This has led to speculation about the release of the next-generation flagship model from DeepSeek, reminiscent of past AI advancements [3] Performance of Major Tech Companies - Major tech companies had mixed performances, with Nvidia rising by 1.26% and Apple falling by 0.31%. Tesla experienced a decline for the seventh consecutive day [5] - The overall performance of tech giants was lackluster, with Microsoft down by 2.21% and Amazon down by 1.87% [5] Stock Movements in Various Sectors - Various thematic stocks saw significant trading activity, with Micron Technology up by 10.51% and Western Digital up by 8.96%, both reaching historical highs [6] - AI energy and storage concept stocks also performed well, with Bloom Energy rising by 13.58% and NuScale Power increasing by 15.17% [6] Electric Vehicle Market Update - Tesla reported Q4 delivery data that fell short of expectations, delivering 418,227 vehicles in the last quarter and losing its title as the global leader in electric vehicle sales to BYD, which sold 2.2567 million vehicles in 2025, a 27.86% increase from 2024 [7][8] Berkshire Hathaway Insights - Warren Buffett expressed confidence in Berkshire Hathaway's long-term prospects, suggesting a high likelihood of the company existing in a hundred years, with praise for his successor Greg Abel's capabilities [9] Retail Investor Performance - A report indicated that retail investors at Interactive Brokers achieved an average return of 19.2% in 2025, outperforming the S&P 500 index's return of 16.39% [9]

美光科技涨超10%，刷新历史新高，SanDisk涨超14%，西部数据涨超8%。 来源：滚动播报 ...

企业应用正成为AI价值的新标尺。富达国际调研显示，近半数分析师预计AI将在2026年提升企业盈利 能力，比例较2024年翻倍。当前应用仍以降本增效为主，并正从能源、金融向零售消费等领域扩展。市 场关注点已从"能否做"转为"能否赚"。 来源：环球网 【环球网财经综合报道】全球人工智能投资正经历从技术叙事到价值验证的关键转折。富达、施罗德、 路博迈等国际资管机构的最新研判显示，市场焦点已从上游算力竞赛，转向AI在企业端的实际落地效 果、盈利贡献及估值合理性。 东方IC 上游基础设施需求依旧强劲。路博迈指出，半导体、存储、散热等环节将持续受益于多年的资本开支周 期。同时，应用层机遇开始显现，工业、办公等垂直领域的AI解决方案已开始贡献实质性收入，呈 现"百花齐放"的初期态势。 面对美股科技股高集中度与估值，外资机构在保持长期看好的同时更趋审慎。施罗德提示，在估值高位 需警惕调整风险，并关注医疗、消费等板块的防御价值。投资的关键在于甄别那些能将技术优势转化为 可持续现金流的企业。 在全球分散配置的需求下，港股科技的战略地位凸显。路博迈认为，其得益于标的扩容、估值优势，正 成为全球资金布局中国AI资产的核心渠道。国内算 ...