美国财政部在周三公布的季度再融资声明中，决定维持现行中长期债券发行规模不变，符合市场普遍预 期。此举打消了此前关于其可能调整发债结构以降低长期借贷成本的市场猜测。 摩根士丹利策略师团队在其再融资预览报告中指出，美联储的购买计划降低了财政部向市场"过度供 应"短期国债、超出私人部门吸纳能力的风险。 财政部明确表示，计划在"至少未来几个季度内"保持附息债券与浮动利率票据的拍卖额度稳定，这一前 瞻指引已延续使用两年。本季度再融资总额为1250亿美元，具体构成如下： 声明指出，财政部正密切关注美联储为维持银行体系充足储备而自去年12月启动的、持续至今年4月的 月度短期国债购买计划（规模为400亿美元），以及私人部门对短期国债日益增长的需求。此次决定延 续了其长期奉行的"规律且可预测"的债务管理原则。尽管新一届政府关注降低融资成本，但任何削减发 行的举措都可能违背这一核心承诺。 "尽管本届政府对降低融资成本措施的重视，重新引发了市场关于是否会通过更积极地调整 发行组合来达成此目标的疑问，但我们预计财政部目前不会采取此类行动。" 牛津经济研究院首席分析师John Canavan评论称： "声明本身传递了非常稳健的信号，财 ...

格隆汇2月4日｜投资银行咨询公司Evercore公布去年第四季度业绩，收入同比增长32%至12.8亿美元， 超过分析师预期的11.2亿美元；调整后每股收益为5.13美元，亦超过预期的4.05美元。2025年，该公司 在多个业务领域表现强劲，北美咨询、欧洲中东非洲咨询、私人资本咨询和私募基金集团均实现了创纪 录的年度收入。另外，公司宣布派发每股0.84美元的季度股息。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

每经编辑｜何小桃 爱泼斯坦案继续发酵。 据新华社报道，当地时间3日，美国总统特朗普在回答美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）女记者凯特兰·柯林斯有关爱泼斯坦案的提问时称，现在该去关注其他 事情。柯林斯追问如何回应那些"认为自己仍未讨回公道的幸存者"，特朗普没有回答，转而指责柯林斯为"最差的记者"，并称从未在这位"年轻女士"的脸 上见到过笑容，全因她"知道自己说的不是实话"。 去年12月19日，美国司法部开始在其网站公布爱泼斯坦案文件。今年1月30日公布的一批文件涉及美国商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克、企业家埃隆·马斯克、特 朗普首个总统任期内的顾问斯蒂芬·班农等。 特朗普2日在社交媒体上发文，再次否认与爱泼斯坦的案件有关联，称从未去过爱泼斯坦的岛屿。 爱泼斯坦与大批美国和欧洲政商名流交往密切，2008年因教唆未成年人卖淫被定罪，2019年7月再次因涉嫌性犯罪被捕，2019年8月死在狱中，被判定 为"自杀"。然而广为流传的说法是，爱泼斯坦因掌握一份用于勒索知名人士的"客户名单"而死于非命。 高盛首席律师被曝与爱泼斯坦有瓜葛 新华社报道，美国司法部最新公开的一批涉及美国已故富商杰弗里·爱泼斯坦的文件显示，美国高盛集团首席律师凯 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent release of documents by the U.S. Department of Justice reveals connections between Goldman Sachs' Chief Counsel, Kathryn Ruemmler, and the late financier Jeffrey Epstein, including the acceptance of valuable gifts and assistance in handling media inquiries related to Epstein's sexual crimes [1][5]. Group 1: Connections and Gifts - Ruemmler received valuable gifts from Epstein before joining Goldman Sachs, including a request for an Hermès watch band [2][5]. - In emails, Ruemmler referred to Epstein as "Uncle Jeffrey" and expressed gratitude for gifts, indicating a close personal relationship [2][5]. Group 2: Professional Interactions - Between June 2018 and April 2019, while seeking a senior position at Facebook, Ruemmler received significant guidance from Epstein [2][5]. - Ruemmler assisted Epstein in drafting responses to media inquiries regarding his legal issues, showcasing a reciprocal professional relationship [2][5]. Group 3: Career Progression - Ruemmler discussed her negotiations with Alphabet Inc. (Google's parent company) and her eventual role at Goldman Sachs during her interactions with Epstein [6]. - After unsuccessful negotiations with Facebook, Ruemmler joined Goldman Sachs in 2020 as Global Head of Regulatory Affairs and was promoted to General Counsel the following year [6]. Group 4: Ruemmler's Statement - Ruemmler stated that her relationship with Epstein was based on her role as a defense attorney and claimed ignorance of his criminal activities [3][6]. - She expressed regret about knowing Epstein and emphasized that the private emails from a decade ago are unrelated to her work at Goldman Sachs [3][6].

华夏时报记者叶青北京报道 近日国际黄金价格上演惊心动魄的"过山车"行情，涨跌交替、波动剧烈，尽显贵金属市场的极端不确定性。COMEX黄金期货方面，2月2日盘中突然跳 水，最低下探至4400美元/盎司，随后整体走出触底反弹走势。2月3日该合约一改颓势，盘中一度冲高至5000美元/盎司，日内涨幅达6%。 "国际金价此番下跌，导火索是美国总统特朗普提名沃什出任下一任美联储主席。不过，这一因素并不足以解释短期内黄金、白银同步出现断崖式暴跌， 其主因还是强制平仓与保证金上调引发的连锁反应。"北京黄金经济发展研究中心研究员许亚鑫在接受《华夏时报》记者采访时表示。 小利空引发大崩盘 2月2日黄金、白银期货延续暴跌态势，核心原因是政策预期逆转、美元反弹、杠杆踩踏与监管收紧多因素共振。对此，创元期货分析师何燚接受《华夏时 报》记者采访时表示，近期金银价格大幅下跌的核心因素是短期多头交易拥挤，当前金银正处于高波动率市场，且波动率远超历史水平。任何资产在高波 动率背景下都会显现出极强的脆弱性，而前期的交易拥挤进一步放大了这种脆弱性，在此背景下，一个微小的利空因素就足以引发行情剧烈波动。 "1月份以来，金银价格连续暴涨，尽管交易所多 ...

格隆汇2月4日｜摩根士丹利报告指出，从外资流向来看，1月美国和欧盟共同基金对中国股票的流入达 86亿美元，创2024年10月以来新高。1月，来自美欧的主动型基金时隔近三年首次转为净流入，规模约 12亿美元。被动型基金加速流入，规模达74亿美元；前月为44亿美元。大摩指出，全球基金对中国股票 整体仍维持低配状态，而新兴市场基金及亚洲(除日本)基金小幅下调中国主动型仓位。 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 2月4日收盘，国内期货主力合约涨多跌少。贵金属强势反弹，沪银涨超11%，沪金涨超7%，铂、钯涨 超6%，沪锡涨超5%，多晶硅涨超4%，燃油、沪镍、国际铜、焦煤、沪铜、低硫燃油、玻璃均涨超 3%；下跌方面，市场无跌超1%品种，菜粕下跌0.88%，菜籽下跌0.81%，烧碱下跌0.75%。 | 名标 | 代写 - | | | | | 提价得幅600 图数 买价 卖价 买量 卖量 现手 成交量 持仓 日增仓 | | | | | | 换幅 最高 | | 最低 | 开盘 | 昨秋 | 昨后 | -0 用 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 产品2604 | ag2604 | | 23511 #11,22% #2371 23503 23511 | | | 27 | 14 | 174 94.327 23.727 | | | +10869 | 7.75% 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains a significant upward risk in its prediction of gold prices reaching $5,400 per ounce by December 2026, driven by structural factors rather than speculative excess [2][8] Group 1: Market Dynamics - January's volatility in gold and silver prices was primarily influenced by Western capital flows rather than Asian speculation, with silver experiencing larger corrections due to ongoing liquidity issues in the London market [2][8] - The shift in global central bank reserves from the US dollar to precious metals has fundamentally altered the demand structure for gold, making it more sensitive to changes in official sector demand [8][9] Group 2: Investor Behavior - Financial speculators have limited participation in the gold market, with only a small portion of global gold inventory held by them, indicating that the current price increase is driven by central banks' long-term asset allocation decisions [3][8] - The recent surge in gold prices is viewed as a partial revaluation after a prolonged period of underperformance, reflecting a rebalancing of asset preferences rather than a market bubble [3][9] Group 3: Future Outlook - While Goldman Sachs does not expect gold to continue its exponential rise seen in the past year, it remains optimistic about the overall upward trajectory, suggesting further price increases as reserve diversification continues [9] - The firm advocates for an upgraded traditional barbell strategy in asset allocation, recommending a combination of stocks and gold to provide risk diversification amid geopolitical uncertainties and changing monetary systems [9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in international gold prices, characterized by sharp fluctuations, is primarily driven by market uncertainties and a combination of factors including policy expectations, dollar rebound, and increased margin requirements [2][3][4]. Market Dynamics - On February 2, gold and silver futures experienced significant declines due to a reversal in policy expectations, a rebound in the dollar, and forced liquidations triggered by increased margin requirements [3][4]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange announced an increase in trading margin requirements for precious metals, which contributed to the market's forced deleveraging and heightened volatility [5][6]. Investor Behavior - The market has seen a shift from passive selling to active repositioning by institutions, with a notable reduction in long positions among major financial institutions like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, while retail investors continued to increase their positions [7][8]. - The crowded long positions in silver, particularly, were a key factor in the recent dramatic price drop, as any negative news led to a rush to liquidate positions [7][8]. Future Outlook - Despite the recent volatility, analysts believe that the long-term bull market for gold is not over, as the fundamental support factors remain intact, including central bank purchases and a potential decline in real interest rates [11][12]. - The upcoming market dynamics will be influenced by various factors, including U.S. government developments, geopolitical tensions, and economic data releases [11][12][13].

2月3日（周二），高盛（Goldman Sachs）上调2026年镍价预估，将其均价从每吨14,800美元上调至 17,200美元，因印尼镍矿供应量同比下降11%至2.6亿吨。 该行补充称，当前市场前景的风险仍偏向上行。 高盛预计，受矿石供应收紧影响，到2026年第二季度镍价将维持在每吨约18,700美元的水平。 高盛表示："若印尼全年将镍矿开采配额维持在2.6亿吨，其镍矿供应量将同比下降12%至229万吨，这 会使精炼镍市场陷入3.1万吨的小幅供应短缺状态（占全球供应量的1%），并支撑2026年全年镍价维持 在18,000美元高位区间。" 高盛预计，随着新增审批落地推动镍矿产量回升至3亿吨左右，今年晚些时候镍矿供应将出现增长；这 一变化也将使精炼镍市场重回约19.1万吨的供应过剩状态，并推动镍价在2026年底回落至每吨15,500美 元的成本支撑位。 LME期镍周二收于每吨17,447美元附近。 高盛表示，综合行业反馈及过往矿石开采审批的调整情况来看，2.6亿吨的开采上限并非铁板一块。 ...