交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 沥青期货早报 2025年10月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 | | | 供给端来看 根据隆众 ， | 2025年8月份国内沥青总计划排产量为241 3万吨 环比降 ， . ， | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 幅5 1% 同比增幅17 1% . , . | 本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为33 0777% 环比减少 。 . ， | | | | | 4 31个百分点 ， . | 全国样本企业出货29 066万吨 环比增加14 73% 样本企业产量为 ， . . , | | | | | 55 2万吨 环比减少11 . ， | 53% 样本企业装置检修量预估为67 6万吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is showing a downward trend with fluctuations. The supply side has seen a decline in the asphalt operating rate, and the expected production in November is decreasing. The downstream operating rate has mostly increased, and the national shipments have increased. The inventory ratio of asphalt refineries has slightly decreased and remains at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. Due to factors such as international events affecting crude oil prices and the large decline of the asphalt basis in Shandong from a high level, it is recommended to cautiously observe the asphalt futures price [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Last week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 4.7 percentage points to 31.1% week - on - week, 2.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In November, the domestic asphalt is expected to produce 222.8 million tons, a decrease of 45.4 million tons (16.9%) month - on - month and 27.4 million tons (11.0%) year - on - year. The downstream operating rates of asphalt industries mostly increased last week, with the road asphalt operating rate increasing by 3 percentage points to 32% week - on - week, slightly exceeding the level of the same period last year, restricted by funds and rainfall in some areas. The refinery supply in the East China region increased, and the national shipments increased by 14.73% week - on - week to 29.07 million tons, at a neutral level. The inventory ratio of asphalt refineries decreased slightly week - on - week and remains at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. Qilu Petrochemical refinery is in stable production, and the asphalt output will increase slightly. Projects in many northern regions are rushing to work, the weather has improved, and the market is actively shipping, but funds are still restricted. Recently, crude oil prices have rebounded significantly from a low level, and the asphalt basis in Shandong has decreased significantly from a high level and is currently at a moderately high level [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Today, the asphalt futures 2601 contract fell 0.79% to 3279 yuan/ton, near the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 3263 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 3295 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 3762 to 197,268 lots [2]. - The mainstream market price in Shandong decreased to 3320 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract decreased to 41 yuan/ton, at a moderately high level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, refineries such as Shandong Shengxing and Guangzhou Petrochemical have stopped production for maintenance, and the asphalt operating rate decreased by 4.7 percentage points to 31.1% week - on - week, 2.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. From January to August, the national highway construction investment decreased by 7.1% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate slightly rebounded compared with January - July 2025 but was still negative. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry was - 2.7%, a slight rebound from - 3.3% from January to August 2025 but still in a negative growth situation. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased from 2.0% in January - August 2025 to 1.1%. As of the week of October 24, the downstream operating rates of asphalt industries mostly increased, with the road asphalt operating rate increasing by 3 percentage points to 32% week - on - week, slightly exceeding the level of the same period last year, restricted by funds and rainfall in some areas. From January to September 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of the social financing stock was 8.7%, 0.1 percentage point lower than that from January to August. In September, the new social financing reached 3.53 trillion yuan, but with a high base, it was 233.5 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Attention should be paid to the progress of forming physical workload [4]. Inventory - As of the week of October 24, the inventory ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 16.0% compared with the week of October 17 and remains at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the financial performance of Yueyang Xinchang, indicating a decline in revenue and a net loss for the third quarter of 2025 [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's revenue was approximately 2.636 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 9.7% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was a loss of approximately 31.8 million yuan, with basic earnings per share reflecting a loss of 0.087 yuan [1] Group 2 - As of the report, the market capitalization of Yueyang Xinchang stands at 6.8 billion yuan [1] - The article also notes a significant market trend, with the A-share market breaking through 4000 points, indicating a resurgence after a decade of stagnation, particularly driven by technology stocks [1]

Core Viewpoint - In November, the domestic wholesale prices of gasoline and diesel are expected to remain weak due to ongoing supply surplus expectations and the easing of China-U.S. tariff tensions, with macro sentiment supporting a continued weak trend in international oil prices [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The market is anticipated to experience a weak trend in international oil prices as supply surplus expectations persist [1] - The easing of China-U.S. trade tensions is contributing to a recovery in macro sentiment, which may influence oil price movements [1] Group 2: Demand Analysis - As the outdoor infrastructure projects enter the year-end rush, there may be a short-term improvement in oil demand from the logistics transportation sector [1] - However, limited demand for diesel is expected due to declining temperatures in northern regions, which may restrict terminal demand [1] - Gasoline demand is projected to remain stable and subdued, lacking support from holiday travel, with public driving primarily for daily commuting [1] Group 3: Price Forecast - Diesel wholesale prices are expected to face downward pressure, while gasoline wholesale prices may experience fluctuations leading to a potential decline [1]

Industry Insights - In the first nine months of the year, the profit of the electricity and heat production and supply industry increased by 14.4% year-on-year, while the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 537.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [2] - The non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry saw a profit increase of 14.0%, while the automotive manufacturing industry grew by 3.4% [2] - The coal mining and washing industry experienced a significant decline in profit, decreasing by 51.1% year-on-year [2] Company News - Hubei Energy's Deputy General Manager Jiang Dezheng has resigned due to job relocation, effective immediately [6] - China Petroleum's Guangxi Petrochemical Company successfully started its 120,000 tons/year ethylene unit, marking a significant milestone for the petrochemical industry in the southwest region [7] - Guodian Power's net profit for the third quarter was 3.09 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.87%, despite a revenue decline of 1.01% [7]

Core Viewpoint - Hengli Petrochemical reported a decline in revenue for the third quarter, while net profit showed significant growth compared to the same period last year [1] Financial Performance - Third quarter revenue was 53.496 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.98% [1] - Net profit for the third quarter was 1.972 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 81.47% [1] - Revenue for the first three quarters totaled 157.384 billion yuan, down 11.46% year-on-year [1] - Net profit for the first three quarters was 5.023 billion yuan, a slight decline of 1.61% year-on-year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Bohui Co., Ltd. (SZ 300839), announced the convening of its 29th meeting of the fourth board of directors on October 27, 2025, to review the proposal for the third quarter report of 2025 [1] Financial Performance - For the year 2024, the revenue composition of Bohui Co., Ltd. is as follows: self-produced refined petroleum products account for 99.16%, materials for refined petroleum products account for 0.57%, and trade in refined petroleum products accounts for 0.26% [1] - As of the report date, the market capitalization of Bohui Co., Ltd. is 3.9 billion yuan [1]

Core Insights - The average return rate of billion-level private equity firms reached 28.8% in the first three quarters, indicating a competitive market environment that attracts retail investors [2] - The emergence of five new firms, with a balanced representation of quantitative and subjective strategies, suggests that there are no eternal strategies in the market, only ongoing competition [2] - The market is characterized by information asymmetry, where the behavior of funds is more telling than price movements, highlighting the importance of understanding institutional actions [14] Group 1 - The current market resembles a humid and stagnant environment, where institutions are playing a "time for space" game, making it difficult for retail investors to interpret market movements accurately [6] - The concept of "institutional inventory" reveals that just because funds are present does not mean they are actively engaged, similar to gym-goers who check in but do not work out [10] - The reliance on traditional technical analysis is becoming less effective in a market dominated by algorithms and strategies, necessitating a shift in how market observations are made [14][15] Group 2 - The two major illusions affecting investors are the belief that "my stock will definitely rise" and that "adjustments are opportunities," which can lead to significant losses during market fluctuations [5] - The market's nature is such that it does not distribute gains evenly, as evidenced by stocks like Guangju Energy, which lost 60% of its gains during a bullish phase [2] - The behavior of institutional investors, such as the significant holdings by Central Huijin and China Securities Finance in Moutai, did not prevent the stock price from declining, illustrating the unpredictability of market reactions [10]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in international oil prices have led to a reduction in domestic gasoline and diesel prices in China, effective from October 27, 2023 [1] Group 1: Price Adjustments - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices will decrease by 265 yuan and 255 yuan per ton, respectively, based on the average prices from the first ten working days of October compared to the previous adjustment period [1] Group 2: Market Stability Measures - Major oil companies, including PetroChina, Sinopec, and CNOOC, along with other crude oil processing enterprises, are required to ensure stable supply and production of refined oil [1] - Local authorities are urged to enhance market supervision and strictly enforce national pricing policies to maintain normal market order [1] - Consumers are encouraged to report price violations through the 12315 platform [1]

冠通期货研究报告 --2025年11月沥青月度报告 发布日期：2025年10月27日 冠通期货研究咨询部 分析师：苏妙达 执业证书号：F03104403/Z0018167 联系电话：010-85356618 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 行情分析 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落4.7个百分点至31.1%，较去年同期高了2.4个百分点，处于近年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯 数据，11月份国内沥青预计排产222.8万吨，环比减少45.4万吨，减幅为16.9%，同比减少27.4万吨，减幅为11.0%。上周，沥青下 游各行业开工率多数上涨，其中道路沥青开工环比上涨3个百分点至32%，略超去年同期水平，受到资金和部分地区降雨制约。上 周，华东地区炼厂供应增加，其出货量增加较多，全国出货量环比增加14.73%至29.07万吨，处于中性水平。沥青炼厂库存存货比 环比小幅下降，仍处于近年来同期的最低位。齐鲁石化炼厂稳定生产，沥青产量将略有增加。北方多地项目赶工，天气有所转好， 市场发货积极，但 ...