1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin - The current supply of tin ore remains tight, but the supply is expected to recover in July. The demand improvement is limited, and the subsequent demand outlook is pessimistic. The Sino - US tariff negotiation consensus may drive the price to rebound, but considering supply recovery and weak demand, try shorting in the 265,000 - 270,000 range and focus on the supply recovery rhythm [1]. Copper - Macroeconomic factors such as tariffs and the "232" investigation affect copper prices. The supply of raw materials is tight, and domestic inventories are low. The demand in the peak season may not be sustainable. The copper market shows a "strong current + weak expectation" pattern, with prices expected to be volatile in the short - term, and focus on the demand after May and tariff negotiation progress [2]. Aluminum - For alumina, the operating capacity may fluctuate, demand is stable with limited growth, and the cost support is weakening. Prices are expected to be volatile. For electrolytic aluminum, the supply is stable, demand may decline, but the low inventory and tariff relaxation support the price. Overall, the price is expected to be weak, with a support range of 18,000 - 18,500 [4]. Zinc - The supply of zinc ore is loose. Refined zinc supply was affected by over - expected maintenance in April. Downstream demand is weak, and the purchasing index is weakening. Short - term prices may be supported by tariff relaxation. In the long - term, consider shorting, and focus on ore production and downstream demand changes [6]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures market fluctuates. The tariff negotiation result has a short - term impact on sentiment. The supply pressure is clear, demand is relatively flat, and inventory is high. Prices may stabilize in the short - term, but the upside is limited. The overall strategy is to short on rallies, with a reference range of 62,000 - 66,000 [9]. Nickel - The nickel market is affected by the rumored Philippine ore ban and tariff negotiation results. The cost support is strong, but the medium - term supply is loose, restricting the upside. The price is expected to be in a range - bound adjustment, with a reference range of 122,000 - 128,000 [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is affected by tariff negotiation results. The ore price provides support, but the supply is excessive, and demand is slowly recovering. The inventory pressure eases slightly. The price is expected to be volatile, with a reference range of 12,600 - 13,200 [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 1.23% to 262,800 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 tin premium remained unchanged. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 72.79% to - 43.01 dollars/ton [1]. Internal - External Price Ratio and Import Profit/Loss - The import loss decreased by 74.84% to - 2,373.05 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.19 [1]. Monthly Spread - The spreads of different contracts showed various changes, such as the 2505 - 2506 spread increased by 37.50% [1]. Fundamental Data - In March, tin ore imports decreased by 4.83%, SMM refined tin production increased by 8.75%, and refined tin imports increased by 12.41%. The export of refined tin decreased by 29.50%, and the export of Indonesian refined tin increased by 46.15% [1]. Inventory Change - SHEF inventory decreased by 2.13%, social inventory increased by 3.66%, SHEF warrants decreased by 0.85%, and LME inventory increased by 3.14% [1]. Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.09% to 78,275 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased. The import loss increased to - 570 yuan/ton [2]. Monthly Spread - The spreads of different contracts decreased, such as the 2505 - 2506 spread decreased by 180 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Data - In April, electrolytic copper production increased by 0.32% to 112.57 million tons. In March, imports increased by 15.24% to 30.88 million tons. The operating rate of electrolytic copper rod decreased, and inventories in various regions decreased [2]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 1.02% to 19,810 yuan/ton. The spreads of different contracts showed various changes [4]. Fundamental Data - In April, alumina production decreased by 6.17% to 754.90 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.91% to 371.42 million tons. The operating rates of some aluminum products changed, and inventories decreased [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 0.22% to 22,720 yuan/ton. The spreads of different contracts decreased [6]. Fundamental Data - In April, refined zinc production increased by 0.31% to 50.98 million tons. In March, imports increased by 9.47% to 5.78 million tons, and exports decreased by 77.37% to 0.02 million tons. The operating rates of downstream industries increased, and inventories increased [6]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 1.00% to 64,600 yuan/ton. The basis decreased by 147.71% [9]. Monthly Spread - The spreads of different contracts showed various changes [9]. Fundamental Data - In April, lithium carbonate production decreased by 6.65% to 73,810 tons, and demand increased by 3.02% to 89,627 tons. In March, imports increased by 47.03% to 18,125 tons, and exports decreased by 47.25% to 220 tons [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 1.92% to 127,225 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 3.73% [11]. Monthly Spread - The spreads of different contracts showed various changes [11]. Supply, Demand, and Inventory - In April, China's refined nickel production increased by 6.08% to 36,300 tons, and imports decreased by 68.84%. Inventories in various regions decreased [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B stainless - steel coils increased, and the basis decreased [14]. Monthly Spread - The spreads of different contracts showed various changes [14]. Fundamental Data - In April, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production increased by 11.37% to 344.01 million tons, and Indonesian production decreased by 6.67%. Imports decreased, exports increased, and inventories changed slightly [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is bearish with weak fundamentals and high inventory. The price is expected to remain weak, with the main contract ranging from 62,000 to 66,000 yuan/ton [1][3]. - **Tin**: The supply side is expected to recover, while the demand outlook is pessimistic. The price may rebound due to macro - sentiment but is likely to be bearish in the medium - term. Attention should be paid to the supply recovery rhythm [4]. - **Nickel**: The macro - sentiment is temporarily stable, and the cost provides support, but the medium - term supply is abundant. The price is expected to fluctuate, with the main contract ranging from 122,000 to 128,000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Stainless Steel**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is expanding, and the inventory pressure is slightly relieved. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract ranging from 12,600 to 13,000 yuan/ton [6][7]. - **Zinc**: The supply side may become looser, and the demand is weak. The price may be supported in the short - term, but in the long - term, a short - selling strategy is recommended. The main contract reference range is 21,500 - 23,500 yuan/ton [9]. - **Aluminum**: The alumina price is expected to fluctuate, and the aluminum price is expected to be weak, with the support level at 18,000 - 18,500 yuan/ton [12]. - **Copper**: The copper market shows a "strong reality + weak expectation" pattern. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with the main contract focusing on the 77,500 - 78,500 yuan/ton pressure level [13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Basis - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 65,250 yuan/ton, while battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.23%. The basis (SMM electric carbon benchmark) increased by 10,800% [1]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin decreased by 0.99% to 259,600 yuan/ton [4]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.06% to 124,825 yuan/ton [5]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) remained unchanged at 13,050 yuan/ton [6]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.35% to 22,770 yuan/ton [9]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 0.05% to 19,610 yuan/ton [12]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 0.29% to 78,205 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamentals - **Lithium Carbonate**: In April, lithium carbonate production decreased by 6.65%, while demand increased by 3.02%. Inventory increased by 6.81% [1]. - **Tin**: In March, tin ore imports decreased by 4.83%, and SMM refined tin production increased by 8.75% [4]. - **Nickel**: In April, China's refined nickel products increased by 6.08%, and imports decreased by 68.84% [5]. - **Stainless Steel**: In April, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production decreased by 2.65%, and exports increased by 70.98% [6]. - **Zinc**: In April, refined zinc production increased by 0.31%, and the social inventory increased by 8.18% [9]. - **Aluminum**: In April, alumina production decreased by 6.17%, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.91% [12]. - **Copper**: In April, electrolytic copper production increased by 0.32%, and the domestic social inventory decreased by 7.33% [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lithium carbonate is "sideways" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The core trading logic of the continuous increase in positions and decline in the futures market, hitting new lows, is to continuously test the cost support of the resource end against the backdrop of no unexpected performance on the demand side and even the need to revise down the terminal growth rate expectations. The accelerated decline in ore prices and the sequential decline in the current operating costs of multiple mines have made this logic smoother. The main logic of long - term oversupply of the variety and the downward shift of cost support remains unchanged, but short - term rhythms need to be noted in the trading dimension. From a fundamental perspective, attention should be paid to whether the reduction in salt production continues to expand, and potential disturbances at the resource end should be continuously vigilant in a low - price environment. After a rapid increase in positions and decline in the futures market, short - covering caused by the expectation gap may drive a rapid rebound in the futures market. Strategically, it is not recommended to continue to short at the current level, nor is it recommended to bottom - fish on the left side based solely on static valuations. Instead, patiently wait for opportunities to short on rebounds [2][20] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Resource End Has No Effective Resistance, and the Increase in Positions in the Futures Market Hits New Lows - Last week (05/06 - 05/09), lithium salt prices accelerated their decline. The closing price of LC2505 decreased by 4% sequentially to 63,000 yuan/ton, and the closing price of LC2507 decreased by 4.5% sequentially to 63,000 yuan/ton. The average spot prices of SMM battery - grade (99.5%) and industrial - grade (99.2%) lithium carbonate decreased by 4.0% and 3.9% sequentially to 65,300 yuan/ton and 63,600 yuan/ton respectively. The closing price of the near - month contract of lithium carbonate on Liyang Zhonglian Jin decreased by 3.5% sequentially to 64,000 yuan/ton. During the week, the price of lithium hydroxide also showed a weak trend. The average prices of SMM coarse - grained and micron - sized battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 1.9% and 1.8% sequentially to 66,300 yuan/ton and 71,500 yuan/ton respectively. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate slightly narrowed to 1,700 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide changed from a discount to a premium of 1,000 yuan/ton compared to battery - grade lithium carbonate [1][10] - According to Chilean customs, in April, Chile exported a total of 24,400 tons of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, a 6% increase sequentially and a 15% decrease year - on - year. Among them, the export to China was 15,500 tons, a 6.3% decrease sequentially and a 32% decrease year - on - year. From January to April, Chile exported a total of 91,600 tons of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, a 3% increase year - on - year. Among them, the export to China was 63,300 tons, unchanged year - on - year. In terms of lithium sulfate, in April, Chile shipped 9,100 tons (4,500 tons LCE) of lithium sulfate to China, a 56% increase sequentially and a 14% increase year - on - year. From January to April, a total of 27,300 tons (13,600 tons LCE) of lithium sulfate were shipped to China, a 138% increase year - on - year [2][12] 3.2 Weekly Industry News Review - In April 2025, BYD's total installed capacity of power batteries and energy - storage batteries was approximately 26.478GWh, a record high, with a year - on - year increase of 110.83%. In April, BYD's new - energy vehicle production was 385,064 units, and sales were 380,089 units, a year - on - year increase of 21.34%. From January to April 2025, the cumulative production was 1,442,143 units, and the cumulative sales were 1,380,893 units. In April, the overseas sales of new - energy vehicles totaled 79,086 units, and the cumulative overseas sales from January to April were 285,134 units. The cumulative installed capacity from January to April was approximately 79.031GWh [22] - Chile's lithium export volume in April was 24,404 tons, of which the export volume of lithium carbonate was 21,770 tons. The export volume of lithium carbonate to China in that month was 15,546 tons [22] - Liontown Resources received 15 million Australian dollars in financial support from the Western Australian state government. The state took action to support its key minerals industry in the context of持续疲软 prices. Liontown signed a 15 million Australian - dollar interest - free loan agreement with the state and was confirmed to be eligible for temporary exemption from port fees and certain mining property fee rebates. These support measures are aimed at alleviating the financial pressure during the capacity expansion of the Kathleen Valley lithium project and will remain effective until the spodumene price recovers to over $1,100 per ton for two consecutive quarters or until June 30, 2026, whichever comes first [23] - The Chinese Embassy in Chile stated that BYD and Tsingshan have never said they stopped investing in Chile and are willing to continue dialogue with the Chilean authorities [23] 3.3 Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industrial Chain 3.3.1 Resource End: The Spot Quotation of Lithium Concentrate Continues to Decline - The spot quotation of lithium concentrate continues to decline [24] 3.3.2 Lithium Salt: The Main Contract Hits a New Low Again - The main contract of lithium carbonate hits a new low again [26] 3.3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Quotes Decline - The quotes of downstream intermediates decline [36] 3.3.4 Terminal: In March, China's New - Energy Vehicle Production and Sales Increased Significantly Year - on - Year - In March, China's new - energy vehicle production and sales increased significantly year - on - year [41]

| 锌产业期现日报 | | --- | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月9日 星期五 FE Z0015979 | 价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 0#锌锭 | 22850 | 22770 | +80.00 | 0.35% | 元/吨 | | 升贴水 | 500 | 85 | +415.00 | / | 元/吨 | | SMM 0#锌锭 (广东) | 22850 | 22770 | +80.00 | 0.35% | 元/吨 | | 升贴水(广东) | 500 | ਦਾ ਦ | -15.00 | / | 元/吨 | | 比价和盈亏 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | | 单位 | | 进口盈亏 | 629 | 713 | -84.78 | | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 8.68 | 8.67 | +0.01 | | / | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Tin - Market sentiment has improved, driving up tin prices. However, considering the gradual recovery of the supply side and pessimistic demand expectations, a bearish view on the rebound of tin prices is maintained. Attention should be paid to the recovery rhythm of raw materials on the supply side [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the futures price is under pressure in the short - term due to the expected decline in ore prices, while the spot price provides some support. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term. For electrolytic aluminum, inventory depletion, easing tariff attitudes, and domestic stimulus policy expectations support aluminum prices. But as domestic demand transitions to the off - season, aluminum prices may face downward pressure in the future. The short - term focus is on post - holiday consumption and the pressure around 20,000 yuan/ton [2]. Zinc - In the pessimistic scenario, if tariff policies lead to insufficient terminal consumption, the zinc price center may shift downward. If the growth rate of the ore end is lower than expected and downstream consumption performs better than expected, the zinc price may maintain a high - level shock pattern. In the medium - to - long - term, a short - selling approach is recommended, with the main reference range of 21,500 - 23,500 yuan/ton [4]. Copper - Macroscopically, the issue of reciprocal tariffs is the core variable for asset pricing. The pressure of tariffs has slightly eased, and attention should be paid to the introduction of domestic monetary and fiscal policies. Fundamentally, the supply of raw materials is still tight, and the demand is resilient. In the short - term, the price is expected to be volatile, with the main focus on the pressure level of 77,500 - 78,500 yuan/ton [6]. Nickel - Macroscopically, the situation is stable. With the implementation of Indonesian policies and relatively firm raw material nickel ore, there is still cost support for nickel prices. However, the medium - term supply is abundant, restricting the upward space. In the short - term, the macro situation is still uncertain, and the fundamentals change little. The disk is expected to be in a narrow - range shock, with the main reference range of 122,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [8]. Stainless Steel - The ore end provides some support for prices, while the nickel - iron price is weak. In the short - term, the supply is relatively abundant, domestic demand has some resilience but recovers slowly, and export demand is blocked. The inventory pressure has slightly eased. Considering the cost - demand game and the uncertain macro - environment, the disk is expected to be weakly volatile, with the main operating range of 12,600 - 13,000 yuan/ton [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals lack positive factors. The supply pressure is obvious, and the demand is generally stable but fails to meet expectations. The inventory is still high. In the short - term, the disk is expected to remain weakly operating, with the main reference range of 65,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the performance of funds around 65,000 yuan/ton [13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.38%, SMM 1 tin premium increased by 12.50%. Import profit and loss increased by 32.10%. Some month - to - month spreads changed significantly, such as the 2505 - 2506 spread increasing by 90.00% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In March, tin ore imports decreased by 4.83%, SMM refined tin production increased by 8.75%, refined tin imports increased by 12.41%, and exports decreased by 29.50%. Indonesian refined tin exports increased by 46.15%. The SMM refined tin average operating rate in March increased by 8.75% [1]. - **Inventory**: SHEF inventory decreased by 3.68%, social inventory decreased by 5.57%, SHEF daily inventory decreased by 0.98%, and LME inventory increased by 1.69% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 1.05%, and the import profit and loss increased. Some month - to - month spreads changed, such as the 2505 - 2506 spread increasing by 75 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, alumina production decreased by 6.17%, electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.91%. In March, electrolytic aluminum imports increased by 2.2 million tons, and exports increased by 0.5 million tons. The aluminum profile operating rate decreased by 0.84%, and the aluminum cable operating rate increased by 0.94% [2]. - **Inventory**: The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 1.09%, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [2]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 0.22%, and the import profit and loss changed. Some month - to - month spreads changed, such as the 2505 - 2506 spread increasing by 185 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, refined zinc production increased by 0.31%, in March, imports increased by 9.47%, and exports decreased by 77.37%. The galvanizing operating rate decreased by 12.83%, the die - casting zinc alloy operating rate decreased by 9.97%, and the zinc oxide operating rate decreased by 1.20% [4]. - **Inventory**: The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 2.10%, and the LME inventory decreased by 0.50% [4]. Copper - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.31%, the refined - scrap price difference increased by 25.70%, and the import profit and loss increased. Some month - to - month spreads changed, such as the 2505 - 2506 spread increasing by 80 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, electrolytic copper production increased by 0.32%, in March, imports increased by 15.24%. The electrolytic copper rod operating rate increased, and various inventories decreased, such as the SHFE inventory decreasing by 23.51% [6]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.32%, and the futures import profit and loss increased by 19.50%. Some month - to - month spreads changed, such as the 2506 - 2507 spread decreasing by 10 yuan/ton [8]. - **Cost**: The cost of integrated MHP production of electrowon nickel increased by 1.85%, and the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte production of electrowon nickel increased by 2.47% [8]. - **Supply and Inventory**: Chinese refined nickel products decreased by 2.62%, imports increased by 8.18%. SHFE inventory decreased by 3.08%, social inventory decreased by 1.25%, and LME inventory decreased by 0.92% [8]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel coils remained stable, and the futures - spot price difference decreased by 11.82%. Some month - to - month spreads changed, such as the 2506 - 2507 spread increasing by 20 yuan/ton [10]. - **Raw Material Price**: The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.98%, and the price of 304 waste stainless steel increased by 1.05% [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased by 11.37%, Indonesian production decreased by 6.67%. Stainless steel imports decreased by 19.45%, exports increased by 70.98%, and net exports increased by 196.56%. The 300 - series social inventory increased by 0.94% [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 1.25%, and some month - to - month spreads changed, such as the 2505 - 2506 spread increasing by 20 yuan/ton [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, lithium carbonate production decreased by 6.65%, battery - grade lithium carbonate production decreased by 9.55%, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate production increased by 0.27%. In March, lithium carbonate demand increased by 15.07%, imports increased by 47.03%, and exports decreased by 47.25% [13]. - **Inventory**: In March, the total lithium carbonate inventory increased by 16.79%, downstream inventory increased by 27.94%, and smelter inventory increased by 9.40% [13].

Group 1 - The company reported a revenue of 13.063 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decline of 67.75%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -7.905 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 208.32% [1] - The decline in performance is primarily attributed to the drop in lithium prices, with the average spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in 2024 being 93,000 yuan per ton, a decrease of 65% year-on-year [1] - The company faced significant asset impairment losses amounting to 2.114 billion yuan in 2024, largely due to the full impairment provision for the Australian Phase II lithium hydroxide project [1] Group 2 - The company is actively developing new green extraction technologies for high-energy metallic lithium and is advancing the industrialization of sulfide lithium, a core material for next-generation solid-state batteries [1] - The company has established a lithium chemical product capacity of approximately 91,600 tons per year, with plans to expand total capacity to 122,600 tons per year [2] - The company signed an investment agreement with other lithium industry enterprises to jointly establish a tailings storage project and a water intake facility project [2] Group 3 - Due to the recent decline in lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices, the company has revised its profit forecasts, expecting net profits of 1.253 billion yuan and 1.815 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, which are reductions of 71.1% and 67.9% [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on its leading position in the global industry and quality resource layout [3]