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ETF日报:从居民资金入市、两融稳定增长的逻辑出发,可以关注业绩弹性较高,显著受益于股市活跃度的券商ETF
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-08-11 12:19
Market Overview - A-shares experienced a general rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3647.55 points, up 0.34%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 11291.43 points, up 1.46% [1] - The total trading volume reached 751.3 billion yuan for Shanghai and 1075.6 billion yuan for Shenzhen, with both indices hitting new highs for the year [1] - Margin financing in the A-share market has surpassed 2 trillion yuan for the first time in ten years, indicating increased market activity [1] Margin Financing and Market Dynamics - The current margin financing balance represents about 2.3% of the A-share market's total circulation value, which has increased to approximately 90 trillion yuan, suggesting room for growth [1] - The distribution of financing funds is more diversified compared to 2015, showing a preference for emerging industries and growth styles [1][2] Macroeconomic Context - Policies implemented since September 2022 have stabilized market expectations and improved investor risk appetite [2] - The current A-share market capitalization to M2 ratio is around 32%, indicating potential for further inflow of resident funds [2] Sector Performance - The lithium sector saw a significant surge due to supply concerns following the suspension of operations at a key lithium mine [6] - The demand for new energy vehicles is expected to increase, supporting prices in the lithium market [6] Copper Market Insights - Copper prices are maintaining a high level, with LME copper priced at approximately 9750 USD per ton [7] - Supply constraints are exacerbated by incidents in Chile and insufficient capital expenditure from global mining companies [7] - The demand for copper is expected to grow, particularly driven by AI-related electricity needs in the U.S. [7] Investment Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to consider ETFs related to the brokerage sector and lithium mining, as well as copper-related investments due to favorable market conditions [2][8]
沪铜偏强运行 国内社库累积有限【8月11日SHFE市场收盘评论】
Wen Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-11 08:49
Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing a bullish trend due to rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with supply and demand pressures remaining manageable [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Recent disturbances in overseas supply have slightly increased compared to previous periods, but some situations have calmed down [1] - Codelco, the Chilean state copper company, has received authorization to resume partial operations at the El Teniente copper mine [1] - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees have recently rebounded from low levels, but the extent of the rebound is limited, indicating ongoing concerns about supply tightness [1] Inventory and Market Activity - As of August 11, domestic electrolytic copper inventory stands at 132,200 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from August 7 [1] - The decline in inventory is primarily attributed to reduced arrivals in the Shanghai market and increased outflows from warehouses due to downstream enterprises purchasing at lower prices [1] Price Outlook - New Lake Futures indicates that the recent U.S. non-farm payroll data fell short of expectations, significantly restoring market expectations for interest rate cuts, which has positively impacted copper prices [1] - The copper supply-demand situation remains relatively healthy, with ongoing tightness in copper mine supply and frequent disturbances at mining sites [1] - Both overseas and domestic smelters are expected to initiate production cuts, while copper demand remains resilient due to support from the power grid and new energy sectors [1] - It is suggested to consider establishing long positions on copper at lower price levels [1]
下游采购意愿减弱 沪铜盘面短期内窄幅震荡运行
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-11 08:09
供应方面,中辉期货指出,近日铜精矿干扰不断,全球最大铜企Codelco因ElTeniente矿隧道坍塌全面停 产,预计月减产约3万吨(占产量四分之一),国内7月铜冶炼开工率为88.19%,环比上升2.43%,7月 SMM中国电解铜产量环比大增3.94万吨,环比增3.47%,同比上升14.21%。 需求端,华联期货分析称,美国关税政策冲击铜产品出口订单,加工材需求受影响;但新能源汽车、光 伏装机及海外基建项目支撑电力用铜需求。"金九银十"临近,加上国内经济复苏以及政策支持的预期, 后期需求预计继续向好。 展望后市,中金财富期货表示,美国服务业PMI疲软,但物价支付指数飙升,市场担忧"滞胀"风险,部 分资金转向避险资产,压制铜价。国内电解铜产量维持高位,但进口亏损扩大,洋山铜溢价下滑,进口 补充有限,现货升水持续收窄,反映下游采购意愿减弱。沪铜价格在回吐前期关税溢价后,短期进入休 整,窄幅震荡。 库存方面,据广州期货介绍,8月8日,SHFE仓单库存21272吨,增1127吨;SHFE铜周库存81933吨,较 前一周五增9390吨;LME仓单库存155850吨,减150吨。 8月11日,国内期市有色金属板块涨幅居前 ...
供应宽松但宏观预期转好,铜市延续震荡偏强上行
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 07:47
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The copper market may continue to oscillate within a range and may show a short - term upward trend. Supply - side factors such as mine disturbances and improved smelting efficiency offset each other, but the decline in anode copper开工率 limits supply flexibility. On the demand side, the weakness in construction and exports offsets the growth in the new energy sector, and the terminal de - stocking power is insufficient. The increase in LME inventory strengthens the market's expectation of looser supply - demand, and the macro - sentiment is suppressed by the Fed's policy and geopolitical tariff issues [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On August 8, the price of the SHFE copper main contract closed at 78,440 yuan/ton. The spot premium - discount structure strengthened overall. The discount of premium copper narrowed to 160 yuan/ton, and that of flat - water copper narrowed to 95 yuan/ton, indicating short - term tight supply in the spot market. The LME (0 - 3) discount slightly widened to - 65.63 dollars/ton, highlighting the divergence in spot premiums and discounts between the domestic and international markets [1] - **Position and Trading Volume**: On August 7, the LME copper position decreased by 2,005 lots to 263,245 lots, reflecting cautious market sentiment. The SHFE contract position remained stable, and the trading volume slightly shrank, indicating a decline in short - term capital participation [1] b. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: There are many short - term disturbances at the mine end. Although Chifeng Gold discovered new copper resources in Laos, actual capacity release will take a long time. Chile's copper export value in July decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, and the supply - side growth rate may slow down. Baiyin Nonferrous completed the intelligent transformation of the copper concentrate warehouse, improving the ore unloading efficiency by 40%. However, the anode copper enterprise开工率 in August decreased by 3.96% month - on - month, and there is still pressure on refined copper supply in the short term [2] - **Demand Side**: Terminal demand is significantly differentiated. The new energy sector performs strongly, with the cumulative power generation of wind power increasing by 10.6% year - on - year and the output of new energy vehicles increasing by 26.4% year - on - year. However, the copper consumption in the construction/real estate sector decreased year - on - year, and the demand for copper in the photovoltaic sector declined after the rush - installation, dragging down copper consumption. The high tariff imposed by the US on Mexican copper tubes led to blocked exports, and the domestic copper terminal PMI further contracted (expected to drop to 47.49% in August), resulting in insufficient overall demand - side support [2] - **Inventory Side**: On August 8, the LME inventory increased by 1,127 tons to 21,272 tons compared with the previous day, showing a continuous three - day inventory accumulation trend and indicating obvious pressure on visible inventory. The SHFE inventory slightly decreased by 0.1% to 155,850 tons but remained at a high level this year, indicating weak domestic consumption momentum. The COMEX inventory also increased moderately, and the marginal increase in global inventory put pressure on copper prices [2] c. Market Summary - The copper market may continue the oscillating trend within a range and may show a short - term upward trend. The supply - side factors of mine disturbances and improved smelting efficiency offset each other, but the decline in anode copper开工率 limits supply flexibility. The weakness in construction and exports on the demand side offsets the growth in the new energy sector, and the terminal de - stocking power is insufficient. The increase in LME inventory strengthens the market's expectation of looser supply - demand, and the macro - sentiment is suppressed by the Fed's policy and geopolitical tariff issues [3] 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - On August 8, 2025, the SMM 1 copper price was 78,640 yuan/ton, a 0.05% increase from the previous day; the SHFE price was 78,440 yuan/ton, also a 0.05% increase. The LME price was 9,768 dollars/ton, a 1.01% increase. The LME inventory increased by 5.59% to 21,272 tons, the SHFE inventory decreased by 0.1% to 155,850 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 0.32% to 264,140 short tons [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On August 7, Chifeng Gold announced a new discovery in its SND gold - copper mine project in Laos, with about 131.5 million tons of ore and a gold - equivalent metal volume of about 106.9 tons [6] - In July, Chile's copper export value was 3.99 billion dollars, a 0.4% decrease from the previous year [6] - Baiyin Nonferrous started the intelligent transformation project of the 19 line concentrate warehouse, which will increase the ore storage capacity from 30,000 tons to 47,000 tons and improve the unloading efficiency by 40% [7] - SMM expects that the overall anode copper enterprise开工率 in China in August will decrease by 3.96 percentage points to 57.15% [7] - The high tariff imposed by the US on Mexican copper tubes has led to blocked exports, and the US copper tube processing fee has significantly increased. The follow - up situation of whether the US will relax the tariff on Mexican copper materials needs to be concerned [7] 4. Industry Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including China PMI, US employment situation, dollar index and LME copper price correlation, TC processing fee, CFTC copper position, LME copper net long position analysis, Shanghai copper warehouse receipt volume, LME copper inventory change, COMEX copper inventory change, and SMM social inventory [8][12][13][15][18][20][24][26][29]
沪铜日评:国内铜冶炼厂8月检修产能或环减,国内电解铜社会库存量环比减少-20250811
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 06:44
Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily review of copper on August 11, 2025, focusing on the copper market, including price, inventory, and industry trends [1] Group 2: Market Data Shanghai Copper Futures - On August 8, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 78,490, up 30 from the previous day; the trading volume was 42,906 lots, up 196; the open interest was 156,892 lots, down 709; the inventory was 21,272 tons, up 1,127 [2] - The basis of Shanghai copper was 40, unchanged from the previous day; the spot premium or discount in Guangzhou was -40, up 5; in North China was -120, unchanged; in East China was -5, up 10 [2] - The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of Shanghai copper was -30, down 20; between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract was 20, up 30; between the second - continuous and the first - continuous contract was 20, down 10 [2] London Copper - The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on August 8, 2025, was 9,768, up 97.5 from the previous day [2] - The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, down 155,850 from the previous day [2] - The spread of the LME copper futures 0 - 3 months contract was -69.55, down 3.92; the 3 - 15 months contract was -141.49, down 1.49 [2] COMEX Copper - The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures on August 8, 2025, was 4.485, up 0.07 from the previous day [2] - The total inventory was 264,140, up 1,036 from the previous day [2] Group 3: Industry News - Chile's Codelco received approval from the labor department to resume operations in the unaffected areas of its El Teniente copper mine [2] - The daily processing fee of refined copper rods for power and enameled wire in East China increased compared to last week, leading to a decline in the capacity utilization rate of China's refined copper rods (recycled copper rods) [2] - The capacity utilization rate of China's copper wire and cable increased, while the raw material and finished - product inventories decreased [2] - The order volume and capacity utilization rate of China's copper enameled wire decreased and increased respectively, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days decreased [2] - The capacity utilization rate and production of China's copper strip increased, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days decreased [2] - The capacity utilization rate of China's copper tubes increased, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days increased and decreased respectively [2] - The capacity utilization rate of China's brass rods increased, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days decreased [2] - Due to the easing of Sino - US tariffs and the traditional off - season, the capacity utilization rate, production, import volume, and export volume of domestic copper products enterprises in August may decline [2] Group 4: Investment Strategy - Due to the weakening US job market, rising expectations of Fed rate cuts, the weekly operation capacity of the domestic copper processing industry, and the weekly decline in domestic electrolytic copper social inventory, the price of Shanghai copper may rebound [2] - Investors are advised to lightly test long positions on the main contract on dips, with support and resistance levels at 77,000 - 78,000 and 80,000 - 81,000 for Shanghai copper, 9,300 - 9,500 and 10,000 - 10,200 for London copper, and 4.0 - 4.2 and 4.6 - 5.0 for US copper [2]
五矿期货早报有色金属-20250811
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 01:21
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices may fluctuate strongly in the short - term, with the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and anti - involution policy expectations providing support, while the expected increase in supply after the implementation of US copper tariffs poses an upper - bound pressure [1]. - Aluminum prices may fluctuate, supported by the relatively low domestic aluminum ingot inventory and the resilience of external demand, but pressured by weak downstream consumption and volatile trade situations [3]. - Lead prices are expected to show a weak and volatile trend due to the narrowing supply and high downstream inventory levels [4]. - Zinc prices are difficult to fall in the short - term despite the long - term oversupply situation, supported by the low LME warehouse receipts [6]. - Tin prices are expected to decline as the supply is expected to recover significantly in the fourth quarter while the demand remains weak [7]. - Nickel prices may have a callback pressure as the short - term improvement in downstream demand is limited, despite a small rebound [9]. - Carbonate lithium prices are affected by the news of mine shutdowns, with frequent emotional fluctuations in the market. Traders are advised to be cautious [11]. - Alumina is expected to maintain an oversupply pattern, and it is recommended to short at high prices [14]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to show a strong and volatile trend due to the tight market supply [16]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices have limited upward space due to the off - season of downstream demand and the large basis between futures and spot prices, despite cost support [18]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - Last week, LME copper rose 1.4% to $9768/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78940 yuan/ton. The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 28,000 tons, and the Shanghai bonded - area inventory increased by 500 tons. The spot import was in a loss, and the Yangshan copper premium declined. The domestic refined - copper rod and cable operating rates rebounded slightly. In the short - term, copper prices may fluctuate strongly, with the operating range of SHFE copper at 78000 - 80000 yuan/ton and LME copper at $9600 - 10000/ton [1]. Aluminum - Last week, SHFE aluminum rose 0.85%, and LME aluminum rose 1.69% to $2615/ton. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 20,000 tons, and the bonded - area inventory increased by 4000 tons. The aluminum rod social inventory decreased by 4000 tons. The downstream buying interest improved. In the short - term, aluminum prices may fluctuate, with the operating range of SHFE aluminum at 20400 - 20900 yuan/ton and LME aluminum at $2550 - 2660/ton [3]. Lead - On Friday, SHFE lead index fell 0.22% to 16846 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell $6.5 to $1998.5/ton. The supply has slightly narrowed, and the downstream consumption pressure is high. Lead prices are expected to show a weak and volatile trend [4]. Zinc - On Friday, SHFE zinc index fell 0.31% to 22515 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose $3.5 to $2816.5/ton. The domestic zinc ingot is in an oversupply situation, but the low LME warehouse receipts support the price in the short - term [6]. Tin - Last week, tin prices fluctuated upward. Supply is expected to recover significantly in the fourth quarter, while demand is in the off - season. Tin prices are expected to decline [7]. Nickel - On Friday, nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. The short - term macro - environment is positive, but the downstream demand improvement is limited, and nickel prices have a callback pressure. The operating range of SHFE nickel is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel is $14500 - 16500/ton [9]. Carbonate Lithium - On Friday, the MMLC carbonate lithium spot index rose 2.95% from the previous trading day and 1.45% for the week. The news of mine shutdowns affects the market sentiment, and traders are advised to be cautious [11]. Alumina - On August 8, 2025, the alumina index fell 1.36% to 3182 yuan/ton. The supply - side contraction policy needs further observation, and it is recommended to short at high prices. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton [14]. Stainless Steel - On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12985 yuan/ton. The market supply is tight, and the price is expected to show a strong and volatile trend [16]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Last week, the cast aluminum alloy futures price rose 0.95% to 20110 yuan/ton. The downstream is in the off - season, and the price upward space is limited [18].
南华铜周报:铜:震荡偏强,底部抬升-20250811
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 00:22
南华铜周报 2025年8月8日 铜:震荡偏强,底部抬升 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号:Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 点评 铜:震荡偏强,底部抬升 【盘面回顾】沪铜主力期货合约在周中小幅冲高后回落,报收在7.84万元每吨附近,上海有色现货升水120元 每吨。沪铜库存小幅回升至8.2万元;LME库存回升至15.5万吨;COMEX库存继续上涨至26.4万吨,上涨速 度降低。进阶数据方面,铜现货进口亏损缩窄;铜铝比缩稳定在3.79;精废价差小幅回落至784元每吨,小幅 偏低。 【产业表现】智利国家铜业公司(Codelco)最大铜矿El Teniente因7月31日隧道坍塌事故导致6名矿工遇难, 地下作业全面暂停。随着库存矿石耗尽,包括Caletones冶炼厂在内的地面设施被迫进入维护状态,5000名工 人转至地面检查设备。此次事故预计每月减少3万吨铜产量,相当于Codelco四分之一的产能,全球电线、电 子和建筑用铜供应链将受波及。 【核心逻辑】铜价在周中小幅冲高后回落,基本符合预期。智利El Teniente铜矿的矿难事故对于铜价的影响 自事故发生起到现在存在波折 ...
智利矿山引发供应预期,下游需求韧性偏强
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 11:08
【冠通研究】 智利矿山引发供应预期,下游需求韧性偏强 制作日期:2025 年 8 月 8 日 【策略分析】 今日盘面低开高走,偏强震荡。特朗普提名经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰担任 美联储理事,任期至明年 1 月底。与此同时,将继续寻找永久性的替代人选。基本面来 看,智利铜矿事件扰动铜市场的供应预期,且伦铜库存大幅累库,供应双重扰动博弈,7 月 SMM 中国电解铜产量环比大增 3.94 万吨,同比上升 14.21%。TC/RC 费用依然处于负 值,但已经止跌回升,冶炼厂三季度有三家工厂有检修计划,冶炼厂仍能依靠硫酸等副 产品弥补亏损,目前淡季下需求疲软,终端需求萎缩,抢出口的情况下,需求有前置, 透支后期需求,市场交投情绪不温不火。铜半成品后续被征收关税,可能将影响出口需 求。上期所库存依然在低位,暂未大幅累库,支撑盘面价格。综合来看,美联储降息预 期依然在博弈,近日降息预期不断地增强,美元指数低位震荡,市场宏观与基本面博弈 下,沪铜维持窄幅波动,下游疲软的需求下,市场看空情绪浓厚,但目前国内上期所的 低位库存带来强支撑,下方支撑行情关注 78000 元/吨。 投资有风险,入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询 ...
铜产业链周度报告-20250808
Zhong Hang Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 11:05
Report Summary - The short - term copper price is expected to remain volatile, with support at 77,000 [5][46] - The US employment data has weakened, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has increased again, which is helpful for boosting the copper price [8][9] - The domestic short - term market is mainly in a wait - and - see mode, waiting for verification during the peak season [11][12] Multi - empty Focus Bullish Factors - The weakening of US employment data has led to a re - warming of interest - rate cut expectations, with the probability of a rate cut in September priced in the interest - rate futures market reaching as high as 91%, which is beneficial for copper prices [8][9] - The growth of new energy vehicle production and sales and exports, as well as the high - speed growth in the power sector, will drive copper consumption. From January to June, China's new energy vehicle production and sales increased by 41.4% and 40.3% year - on - year respectively, and exports increased by 75.2%. As of the end of June, the cumulative installed power generation capacity increased by 18% year - on - year, and solar power generation increased by 54.2% [30][31][37] - The narrowing of the refined - scrap copper price difference is conducive to refined copper consumption. As of August 7, the refined - scrap copper price difference was around - 1,340 yuan/ton [26] Bearish Factors - The global and Asian manufacturing PMIs declined in July. The global manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the Asian manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [12] - The real - estate copper demand remains weak. From January to June, real - estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year, and new housing starts decreased by 20.0% [34] - The household appliance production schedule in August still shows a year - on - year decline, although the decline is expected to narrow. The combined production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in August decreased by 4.9% year - on - year [40] Data Analysis Supply - side Data - China's copper ore concentrate imports in July were stable. The import volume in July was 2.56 million tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to July was 17.314 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.0% [15] - The output of electrolytic copper remains at a high level. In July, the output of SMM China electrolytic copper increased by 39,400 tons month - on - month, a rise of 3.47% and a year - on - year increase of 14.21%. SMM expects a slight decline in domestic refined copper output in August [21] - China's scrap copper imports in June decreased slightly. The import volume was 183,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.06% but a year - on - year increase of 8.49% [24] Demand - side Data - The new photovoltaic installed capacity declined in June, but the power sector showed high - speed growth. As of the end of June, the cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18%, and solar power generation was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 54.2% [30][31] - The real - estate copper demand remains weak. From January to June, real - estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year, and new housing starts decreased by 20.0% [34] - The automobile industry maintains high prosperity. From January to June, automobile production and sales increased by 12.5% and 11.4% year - on - year respectively, and new energy vehicle production and sales increased by 41.4% and 40.3% year - on - year respectively [37] - The household appliance production schedule in August still shows a year - on - year decline, although the decline is expected to narrow. The combined production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in August decreased by 4.9% year - on - year [40] Inventory Data - Copper inventories in various locations have increased. LME copper inventory reached 156,000 tons, SHFE copper inventory reached 72,543 tons, COMEX copper inventory reached 263,296 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory on August 7 was 133,300 tons [42] Price Data - The domestic copper spot premium has decreased, and the foreign premium or discount has increased. On August 7, the spot premium of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 copper was around 65 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 spot discount was around - 65.63 US dollars/ton [44] Future Market Judgment - The short - term copper price is expected to remain volatile, with support at 77,000. The market needs to pay attention to the impact of factors such as US interest - rate policies, domestic economic recovery, and supply - demand changes in the copper market [5][46]
建信期货铜期货日报-20250808
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 02:08
Report Information - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 8, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core View - The Shanghai copper continued to fluctuate, with the main contract still running below the trend line. The spot price rose 150 to 78,500, and the premium rose 10 to 110. The spot import loss slightly widened to 167. The domestic social inventory increased by 1.27 million tons this week compared with last Thursday, and the LME inventory accumulation speed slowed down. The dollar index continued to fall, and the domestic anti - involution trading logic emerged again. It is expected that the copper price will fluctuate strongly [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The Shanghai copper continued to fluctuate, with the main contract below the trend line. The monthly spread and position changes on the disk were small. The spot price rose 150 to 78,500, and the premium rose 10 to 110. The spot import loss slightly widened to 167. Imported goods continued to flow into the domestic market to supplement the social inventory. The domestic social inventory increased by 1.27 million tons this week compared with last Thursday. After a large - scale inventory accumulation on Tuesday, the LME inventory accumulation speed slowed down, reducing the short - term pressure on copper prices. However, there are still expectations of inventory accumulation at home and abroad, and combined with the off - season of downstream demand, the short - term spot is still weak. With the continuous decline of the dollar index and the emergence of the domestic anti - involution trading logic, the copper price is expected to fluctuate strongly [10]. 2. Industry News - In July 2025, China imported 2.56 million physical tons of copper ore concentrates, a year - on - year increase of 18.24% and a month - on - month increase of 8.95%. From January to July, China's cumulative imports of copper ore concentrates were 17.314 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 8.04% [11]. - PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk announced the latest drilling results of its Tujuh Bukit copper project in East Java, Indonesia. A 248 - meter - long mineralized zone with a grade of 0.4 g/t gold and 0.3% copper was found in the GMD - 25 - 043 drill hole in the Gua Macan target area, further confirming the project's growth potential [11].