商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 27 日 LLDPE：美金递盘暂少，上游报价挺涨 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2605 | 6935 | 1.02% | 683322 | -4043 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 05合约基差 | -155 | | -165 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -27 | | -22 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华 北 | 6780 | | 6700 | | | | 东 华 | 6850 | | 6750 | | | | 华 南 | 6930 | | 6850 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 期货走强，上游前期库存转移，企业报价企稳反弹，中游开单有部分改善。标品排产昨日维持，成交有 所改善，基差走弱。下游制品利润压缩，有所抵触高价。外盘报价上涨且 LL 货源偏少，远期进口 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Commission has introduced a policy proposal focused on plastics to promote a circular economy and boost the demand for recycled plastics [1] Group 1: Policy Measures - The EU requires member states to amend the Single-Use Plastics Directive to enhance plastic recycling, mandating that by 2030, 30% of materials in specific beverage bottles sold domestically must be made from recycled plastics [1] - Member states are required to report the weight of compliant bottles sold and the weight of recycled plastics used in these bottles, with only mechanically recycled plastics currently recognized as recycled [1] - The amendment allows chemically recycled plastics to be considered as recycled plastics, introducing a quality balance method for calculating the amount of recycled plastics [1] Group 2: Implementation Standards - The European Commission proposed an implementation regulation to treat recycled plastics as secondary raw material standards, based on the Waste Framework Directive, establishing EU-wide standards for mechanically recycled plastics [1] Group 3: Regulatory Enhancements - The European Commission plans to improve regulations due to the issue of unused plastic raw materials imported from abroad being sold as recycled plastics, with a revision scheduled for the second quarter of 2026 [1] - Stricter compliance documentation will be required for imported recycled plastics used in food containers, along with a revision of tariff codes to distinguish between virgin plastics and recycled plastics [1]

Core Viewpoint - PEEK exhibits excellent performance, with downstream development and application expansion driving demand [1] Group 1: PEEK Market Overview - PEEK is a lightweight material with outstanding mechanical, physical, thermal, corrosion resistance, electrical properties, and biocompatibility, ranking at the top of the special engineering plastics pyramid [1] - After over 40 years of development, PEEK has been widely used in automotive, electronics, industrial manufacturing, aerospace, and medical fields, with significant potential in emerging industries such as new energy, low-altitude, and robotics [1] - The global PEEK consumption is projected to reach approximately 10,000 tons in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.8%, with a forecasted market size of $1.226 billion by 2027 [1][70] - The domestic PEEK market is growing rapidly, with demand expected to increase at a CAGR of 23.5% from 1,100 tons in 2018 to 3,904 tons in 2024, leading to a market size of 1.455 billion yuan in 2024 [1][80] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The PEEK production technology is complex, with a competitive landscape characterized by one leading player and several strong competitors. Victrex leads globally, followed by Solvay and Evonik [2] - Domestic companies such as Zhongyan Co., Pengfulong, and Junhua Co. are gradually emerging, accelerating their market share through technological breakthroughs and improved product quality [2][30] Group 3: Key Raw Materials - DFBP is a critical raw material for PEEK synthesis, accounting for about 50% of PEEK production costs. Approximately 0.8 tons of DFBP is required to produce one ton of PEEK [3] - In 2023, global DFBP consumption was 6,646.97 tons, with a consumption value of 974 million yuan, while China's DFBP consumption was 1,910.71 tons, valued at 250 million yuan [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Suggested companies in the upstream raw materials include Xinhang New Materials, Zhongxin Fluorine Materials, and Xingfu New Materials [4] - Companies involved in PEEK production include Zhongyan Co., Water Co., and Jinfat Technology [4] - Companies engaged in PEEK processing and application include Huitong Co., Tongyi Co., and Kent Co. [4] Group 5: Industry Challenges and Opportunities - The PEEK industry faces challenges such as high production costs, long verification cycles, and the need for technological innovation to overcome processing difficulties [46][55] - The industry is exploring various avenues for breakthroughs, including technological innovation, cost reduction through vertical integration, and collaborative development with downstream partners [60][62] - Strong policy support is a key external factor enabling domestic PEEK companies to rise rapidly and challenge international giants [65][64]

Core Viewpoint - India and the European Union (EU) are negotiating a landmark free trade agreement that could be finalized as early as January 27, marking a significant development in trade relations after 18 years of discussions [1][2]. Trade Agreement Details - The agreement is expected to create a market for 2 billion people and is projected to increase bilateral trade between India and the EU to approximately $136 billion in the fiscal year 2024-2025, with India exporting around $76 billion and importing about $60 billion [2][11]. - If signed, this will be India's largest and most comprehensive free trade agreement, allowing access to the EU's 27 member states under a single framework [2][11]. - Predictions indicate that by the fiscal year 2031, the agreement could increase India's trade surplus with the EU by over $50 billion, with the EU's share of India's total exports potentially rising from 17.3% in 2025 to 22%-23% [2][11]. Tariff Changes - Currently, the EU imposes an average tariff of about 3.8% on Indian goods, with labor-intensive sectors like textiles facing tariffs around 10% [3][12]. - The agreement aims to restore market access and reduce tariffs on key export products such as clothing, pharmaceuticals, steel, and machinery, helping Indian businesses cope with increased U.S. tariffs [3][12]. Sector-Specific Impacts - India is likely to protect politically sensitive sectors such as agriculture and dairy from the agreement, while tariffs on automobiles, wine, and spirits may be reduced gradually [4][13]. - The EU's average tariff on Indian exports is approximately 9.3%, with particularly high tariffs on automobiles and chemicals [15]. Automotive Industry Focus - India plans to reduce tariffs on EU-imported cars from 110% to 40%, a significant move to open its automotive market [16]. - The reduction will be phased, with tariffs on vehicles priced over €15,000 being lowered immediately, and further reductions expected over time [16][17]. - Currently, European car manufacturers hold less than 4% of the Indian market, dominated by local brands [16]. Challenges and Disputes - Key issues remain, including the EU's focus on intellectual property protection and India's concerns over the EU's new carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), which could impose additional costs on Indian exports [5][14]. - The CBAM is viewed as a potential new border tax on Indian exports, particularly affecting small and medium enterprises due to compliance costs [6][14].

生意社01月26日讯 1月26日，山东万华化学，华东地区LLDPE7042报7050元/吨，上涨200元/吨；华东地区LLDPE7050报 7100元/吨，上涨200元/吨。 PriceSeek评析 LLDPE，多空评分：2 生意社01月26日讯 1月26日，山东万华化学，华东地区LLDPE7042报7050元/吨，上涨200元/吨；华东地区LLDPE7050报 7100元/吨，上涨200元/吨。 PriceSeek评析 LLDPE，多空评分：2 文章显示华东地区LLDPE现货报价上涨200元/吨，如7042型号报7050元/吨、7050型号报7100元/吨，涨 幅显著。这反映出供应紧张或需求增加，对现货价格构成重大利好。结合大连商品交易所聚乙烯期货数 据，2605合约收盘价6865元/吨，上涨116元/吨，成交量达719797手，持仓量增加3532手，表明市场多 头情绪浓厚。现货价格上涨将强化期货上行预期，支撑未来价格走势。 【大宗商品公式定价原理】生意社基准价是基于价格大数据与生意社价格模型产生的交易指导价，又称 生意社价格。可用于确定以下两种需求的交易结算价： 1、指定日期的结算价 2、指定周期的平均结 ...

瑞华泰1月26日公告，市场近期高度关注商业航天热点概念。现阶段，公司的主营业务为高性能聚酰亚 胺薄膜的研发、生产和销售。公司在航天领域的业务多体现为项目合作研发模式，2025年该板块营业收 入约180万元，占总营业收入比例不足1%（未经审计）。 ...

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 688323 | 瑞华泰 | 31.09 | 19.99% | 27.36万 | 8.31亿 | | 300806 | 斯迪克 | 41.70 | 13.93% | 48.79万 | 20.65亿 | | 001333 | 米华股份 | 26.25 | 3.51% | 4.82万 | 1.25亿 | | 001359 | 平安电工 | 78.33 | 1.99% | 2.15万 | 1.68亿 | | 301591 | 肯特股份 | 50.52 | 1.94% | 4.95万 | 2.52亿 | | 301395 | 仁信新材 | 14.32 | 1.92% | 7.23万 | 1.03亿 | | 000920 | 沃顿科技 | 13.67 | 1.11% | 11.43万 | 1.55亿 | | 301687 | 新广益 | 63.94 | 0.84% | 5.31万 | 3.38亿 | | 301092 | 争光股份 | 39.77 | 0.5 ...

长江期货聚烯烃周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 【产业服务总部能化产业服务中心】 研 究 员： 张 英 执业编号:F03105021 投资咨询号:Z0021335 2026-01-26 01 核心观点总结 聚烯烃：估值短暂修复，等待逢高沽空 01 资料来源：iFIND，隆众资讯，长江期货 1 市场变化：1月23日塑料主力合约收盘价6865元/吨，周环比+2.54%。LDPE均价为9033.33元/吨，环比-1.28%，HDPE均价 为7200元/吨，环比-0.52%，华南地区LLDPE（7042）均价为6987.78元/吨，环比+0.38%。LLDPE华南基差收于122.78元/ 吨，环比-58.33%，5-9月差-22元/吨（+6）。聚丙烯主力合约收盘价6656元/吨，较上周末+160元/吨，环比+2.46%。生意 社聚丙烯现货价报收6580元/吨（+0.05%）。PP基差收-76元/吨（-157），1-5月差-11元/吨（+250）。 2 3 基本面变化：1、供应端：本周中国聚乙烯生产开工率84.67%，较上周+3.08个百分点，聚乙烯周度产量69.89万吨，环比 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rebound in polyethylene prices is limited due to insufficient fundamental support, primarily driven by capital market dynamics and geopolitical tensions [5][18]. Supply Side - Domestic polyethylene supply showed a slight increase in operating rates and production, with an operating rate of 84.67%, up 3.08% week-on-week, and a weekly production of 69.89 million tons, an increase of 2.91 million tons [8][27]. - The industry is experiencing a gradual release of capacity as major facilities restart operations, which may continue to exert pressure on prices [8][27]. - The import and export windows for polyethylene remain closed, with domestic imports expected to decline further [10][29]. Demand Side - The demand side is characterized by a traditional consumption off-season, leading to cautious purchasing behavior from downstream sectors [11][30]. - The overall operating rate in downstream industries is 39.53%, down 1.4% week-on-week, primarily due to the upcoming Spring Festival [11][30]. - Specific sectors like agricultural films are experiencing reduced operating rates, with the agricultural film sector at 36.32%, down 0.61% [13][32]. Inventory - Domestic polyethylene inventory continues to decrease, but the rate of reduction has slowed down [14][33]. - As of January 13, production enterprise inventory was 335,000 tons, down 1.53 million tons week-on-week, while trader inventory was 26,600 tons, down 0.26 million tons [14][33]. Cost Side - Rising raw material prices, influenced by geopolitical factors, are providing some support to the market, although the overall oil market remains weak [16][35]. - The recent increase in propylene and methanol futures prices has not significantly improved the spot market transaction atmosphere [16][35]. Summary - Short-term polyethylene prices are expected to maintain a "cost support + capital-driven" oscillating strong trend, but the upside is constrained by fundamental factors [18][37]. - With strong cost support and positive capital market sentiment, polyethylene prices may continue to rise slightly, but the overall volatility is likely to be limited due to high price levels and low acceptance from downstream buyers [18][37].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for both PE and PP is "oscillation", indicating that in the short - term, the market is expected to have an amplitude between - 5% and 5% [3][4] 2. Report's Core View - The short - term market for both PE (LLDPE) and PP lacks obvious driving forces, and it is expected that the market will mainly move in an oscillatory pattern [3][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs PE Fundamental Changes Supply - This week, China's total polyethylene production was 69.89 tons, a 4.34% increase from last week, and the capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 84.67%, a 3.07 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. Although there were new maintenance plans in some enterprises, the restart of 10 previously shut - down units led to an increase in capacity utilization [3] Demand - The average operating rate of downstream products of Chinese LLDPE/LDPE decreased by 0.9% compared with the previous period, and the average operating rate of downstream polyethylene products decreased by 0.3%. The cumulative import volume in 2025 was 13.407 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.21%. In December 2025, the import volume was 1.3299 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.62% and a month - on - month increase of 25.21% [3] Inventory - The sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 335,000 tons, a 4.37% decrease from the previous period, and the sample inventory of polyethylene social warehouses was 477,400 tons, a 1.43% decrease from the previous period. The inventory decline was mainly due to production enterprises' price cuts to reduce inventory [3] Cost - The oil - based production cost increased by 4 yuan/ton compared with the previous period, while the coal - based, ethylene - based, methanol - based, and ethane - based production costs decreased by 33, 129, 244, and 66 yuan/ton respectively [3] Profit - The import profit of LLDPE, HDPE, and LDPE decreased compared with the previous period. The overall profit of PE was lower than the same period last year [3][26] Import and Export - PE exports were better than the same period last year [29] PP Fundamental Changes Capacity and Production - This week, the domestic polypropylene production was 784,900 tons, a 0.53% increase from last week and a 9.36% increase from the same period last year. The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene was 76.02%, a 0.40% increase from the previous period [4] Inventory - The total commercial inventory of Chinese polypropylene decreased by 2.21% from the previous period, the production enterprise inventory increased by 0.43%, the inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased by 6.15%, and the inventory of sample port enterprises decreased by 7.51%. Overall, the inventory at various levels was higher than the same period last year, except for port inventory which was lower [4][47][54] Downstream Demand - The downstream demand for PP showed significant divergence. The average operating rate of polypropylene increased by 0.34 percentage points to 52.87%. As the temperature dropped, the demand in downstream industries such as plastic weaving and transparent PP entered a seasonal off - season [4] Cost and Profit - This week, the profits of oil - based, coal - based, methanol - based, and PDH - based PP production were restored, while the profit of PP production from externally purchased propylene declined. The average import profit of Chinese polypropylene samples was - 352.61 yuan/ton, a 44.60% decrease from last week. The production profit was similar to the same period last year [4][82]