Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, with a weak trading atmosphere. It is expected that plastics will fluctuate weakly in the near term, and the L - PP spread is expected to decline due to the possible addition of new production capacity and the gradual exit from the peak season of agricultural films [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 19th, the restart of maintenance devices such as Qilu Petrochemical's LDPE led to an increase in the plastics operating rate to about 86%, which is at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.55 percentage points to 42.45% week - on - week as of the week of December 19th. Agricultural film orders continued to decline, and the overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years, and the cost of crude oil has decreased. New production capacity has been put into operation, and it is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline [1]. - The plastics 2605 contract decreased in price with increased positions. The lowest price was 6314 yuan/ton, the highest was 6470 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6320 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.90%. The position increased by 36438 lots to 598214 lots [2]. - The PE spot market mostly declined, with a price range between - 80 and + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6250 - 6570 yuan/ton, LDPE at 7950 - 8580 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6600 - 7940 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on December 19th, the restart of maintenance devices such as Qilu Petrochemical's LDPE led to an increase in the plastics operating rate to about 86%, at a neutral level [4]. - In terms of demand, as of the week of December 19th, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.55 percentage points to 42.45% week - on - week. Agricultural film orders continued to decline and were at a neutral level in the same period in recent years, and the overall PE downstream operating rate was at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4]. - Petrochemical inventory on Friday decreased by 10,000 tons week - on - week to 660,000 tons, which is 75,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4]. - For the raw material, crude oil, the Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below $60/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $725/ton week - on - week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $745/ton week - on - week [4].

证券之星消息，12月19日塑料板块较上一交易日上涨1.32%，神剑股份领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3890.45，上涨0.36%。深证成指报收于13140.22，上涨0.66%。塑料板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002361 | 神剑股份 | 8.17 | 9.96% | 250.71万 | | 19.86亿 | | 603879 | 永悦科技 | 5.69 | 5.57% | 21.26万 | | 1.18亿 | | 300806 | 斯迪克 | 28.05 | 5.02% | 18.28万 | | 5.12亿 | | 603150 | 万朗薇塑 | 38.28 | 3.60% | 4.47万 | | 1.71亿 | | 301131 | 聚塞龙 | 45.71 | 3.53% | 8499.0 | 3834.65万 | | | 301216 | 万凯新材 | 17.12 | 3.51% | 5.82万 | 9788.23万 | | | 6 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年12月19日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 为35.13%，环比减少0.73个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为37.6%，环比增加0.200个 百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开工率为73.93%，环比持平，高于历史平均水平；下游糊树脂开 工率为81.36%，环比增加1.05个百分点，高于历史平均水平；船运费用看跌；国内PVC出口价格价格占 优；当前需求或持续低迷。 成本端来看，电石法利润为-1102.13元/吨，亏损环比增加8.10%，低于历史平均水平；乙烯法利润为- 520.44元/吨，亏损环比增加10.10%，低于历史平均水平；双吨价差为1852.55元/吨，利润环比增加 3.00%，低于历史平均水平，排产或将承压。 2、基 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The polyolefin market is influenced by multiple factors including production capacity utilization, inventory levels, macro - economic indicators, and international events. The trading strategies vary daily based on these factors, with suggestions of holding, trying long or short positions, or staying on the sidelines for both L and PP contracts [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Situation - **L Plastic**: The price of LLDPE market mostly shows fluctuations, with some regions experiencing price drops. The trading volume is often limited due to weak downstream demand and cautious purchasing attitudes. For example, on 12 - 25 - 19, the L主力 2605 contract closed at 6434 points, down 42 points or 0.65%. The mainstream price of domestic LLDPE market was between 6390 - 6850 yuan/ton [1] - **PP Polypropylene**: The PP market is also in a state of adjustment. Some regions have structural supply shortages, but the overall trading atmosphere is weak. On 12 - 25 - 19, the PP主力 2605 contract closed at 6248 points, down 31 points or 0.49% [1] Important Information - **Domestic Economy**: In 2025, the total social electricity consumption in China is expected to exceed 10 trillion kWh for the first time, and the total installed power generation capacity exceeds 380 million kilowatts. The new energy industry has developed rapidly, with new installed capacity of wind and solar power reaching about 370 million kilowatts [2] - **Industry Development**: During the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, the Chinese synthetic resin industry has achieved high - quality development, with the largest production capacity in the world. The ethylene self - sufficiency rate has increased from 73% to 90%. The industry has diversified raw material routes, optimized product structures, and achieved independent breakthroughs in technology and equipment [9] Logical Analysis - **Production and Consumption**: In October, the apparent consumption of PE and PP increased, with a combined total of 735.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.5%. The production capacity utilization rate of PE and PP also showed different trends, with some periods of increase and some of decrease [16] - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: Macroeconomic indicators such as the M1 and M2 growth rates, the China Bond New Composite Index, and the logistics industry prosperity index have an impact on the polyolefin market. For example, in November, the domestic M1 increased by 4.9% year - on - year, and M2 increased by 8.0% year - on - year, with the scissors difference at - 3.1% [10] Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Strategies include holding long or short positions, trying long or short positions, or staying on the sidelines. For example, on 12 - 25 - 19, it was suggested to stay on the sidelines for the L主力 2605 contract and the PP主力 2605 contract, and pay attention to the support at 6200 points for the PP contract [3] - **Arbitrage Trading**: Most of the time, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines, but there are also suggestions to try long or short positions in certain situations [3] - **Options Trading**: Generally, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [3]

Group 1 - Germany's overall export is projected to grow by 0.6% in 2023, reaching approximately €1.6 trillion, maintaining the same level as 2022 for the third consecutive year [1] - Imports are expected to increase by 4.4% to around €1.4 trillion, resulting in a trade surplus of about €200 billion, the lowest since 2012, excluding the pandemic years [1] - The export outlook for Germany in 2026 remains bleak, indicating ongoing challenges in international trade [1] Group 2 - Exports to China are forecasted to decline by 10% in 2023, falling to €81 billion, marking the first time since 2010 that China will not be among the top five export destinations for Germany [3] - Imports from China are expected to rise by over 7%, reaching approximately €168 billion [3] - Exports to the United States are also projected to decrease by 7.3%, slightly below €150 billion, with potential further declines anticipated due to preemptive actions by German companies [3] Group 3 - Different industries in Germany face varying export challenges in 2025, with food exports expected to grow by over 6% to a record €86 billion [4] - The chemical industry is projected to see slight growth, particularly in pharmaceuticals and fertilizers, with both expected to increase by over 3% [4] - The plastics industry is anticipated to be significantly affected, with exports expected to decline by over 2%, while the petrochemical sector may experience a dramatic drop of 13% [4] Group 4 - The machinery sector is likely to see a 1.7% decrease in exports due to U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, impacting EU machinery products [4] - The automotive industry is also expected to be heavily impacted, with a projected export decline of 3.2% [4] - The shift towards electric vehicles in China and other emerging markets may provide competitive advantages for Chinese manufacturers [4]

证券之星消息，12月18日塑料板块较上一交易日下跌0.31%，国风新材领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3876.37，上涨0.16%。深证成指报收于13053.98，下跌1.29%。塑料板块个股涨跌见下表： 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。 从资金流向上来看，当日塑料板块主力资金净流出3.18亿元，游资资金净流出2.27亿元，散户资金净流 入5.45亿元。塑料板块个股资金流向见下表： ...

证券日报网讯12月17日，聚合顺（605166）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司无J2600GF30型 号，但有J2600型号，J2600主要应用场景为下游工程塑料领域。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information available Core Viewpoint - The plastics supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, with a weak trading atmosphere. It is expected that plastics will fluctuate weakly in the near term. Due to the possible new plastic production capacity coming on - stream this year and the gradual exit of the agricultural film peak season, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1] Summary by Related Catalogs 行情分析 - On December 17, new maintenance devices such as Qilu Petrochemical's HDPE Line 1 were added, and the plastics operating rate dropped to around 86%, at a neutral level. The new production capacity of ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE (500,000 tons/year) was put into operation in October, and that of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical (700,000 tons/year) in November [1][4] - As of the week ending December 12, the downstream PE operating rate decreased by 0.76 percentage points to 43.00% week - on - week. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders continuing to decline. The overall downstream PE operating rate is still at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4] - Recently, the petrochemical inventory reduction has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in recent years. The cost of crude oil has decreased. The downstream procurement willingness is insufficient, and traders are cautious about the future market, actively selling at reduced prices [1] 期现行情 Futures - The plastics 2605 contract increased positions and oscillated downward, closing at 6479 yuan/ton, down 1.01%. The trading range was between 6470 - 6543 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average. The open interest increased by 29,984 lots to 540,127 lots [2] Spot - The PE spot market mostly declined, with the price change ranging from - 100 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6350 - 6570 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8000 - 8680 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6770 - 7940 yuan/ton [3] 基本面跟踪 - Supply: On December 17, new maintenance devices were added, and the plastics operating rate dropped to around 86%, at a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week ending December 12, the downstream PE operating rate decreased by 0.76 percentage points to 43.00% week - on - week. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders and raw material inventory decreasing. The overall downstream PE operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - Inventory: On Wednesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 700,000 tons week - on - week, 80,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in recent years [4] - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below 60 US dollars/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 725 US dollars/ton week - on - week, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 745 US dollars/ton week - on - week [4]

聚合顺（605166.SH）12月17日在投资者互动平台表示，公司无J2600GF30型号，但有J2600型号，J2600 主要应用场景为下游工程塑料领域。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：我司共聚尼龙J2600GF30的产品特点和应用场景是什 么，请详细讲讲。 ...

证券之星消息，12月17日塑料板块较上一交易日上涨1.49%，博菲电气领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3870.28，上涨1.19%。深证成指报收于13224.51，上涨2.4%。塑料板块个股涨跌见下表： 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。 从资金流向上来看，当日塑料板块主力资金净流出1.98亿元，游资资金净流出1.64亿元，散户资金净流 入3.62亿元。塑料板块个股资金流向见下表： ...