在美国与欧洲关系紧张之际，美元承压，全球各地资产分散配置的势头再起，新兴市场股票、货币与贵金属延续2026年以来的强劲开局。 MSCI新兴市场股票指数周五连续第二日上涨，有望连续第五周走高，为去年5月以来最长连涨纪录。今年以来，该指数累计上涨7%，而标普500指数仅上 涨1%。亚洲科技股为新兴市场的上涨提供了支撑，而拉丁美洲股市领涨，今年以来攀升了13%。 在人民币兑美元中间价于2023年来首次定在强于7元关口后，风险偏好获得提振。南非股市基准指数有望连续第三周上涨，与此同时黄金交投于每盎司略低 于5,000美元。 包括Rohit Garg与Gordon Goh在内的花旗集团策略师在报告中写道，在经历"压力峰值"后，随着焦点回到美国与欧洲的增长分化，美国市场对部分投资者而 言仍可能是优先选项。 不过他们也写道，"去美元化"和"财政挥霍"的主题已经回归。"去美元化有望以积极方式影响新兴市场风险溢价，就像2025年那样。" 来源：国际财闻汇 TCW Group Inc.首席执行官Katie Koch在接受彭博电视采访中表示，人们"在寻求分散配置、减少对美国资产的依赖；我会把它形容为'悄然放弃'美国债 券"。她说： ...

| 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯工业 | 49098.71 | -0.58% | | DJI.GI | | | | 纳斯达克指 | 23501.24 | 0.28% | | IXIC.GI | | | | 标普500 | 6915.61 | 0.03% | | SPX.GI | | | 科技股涨跌不一，微软（MSFT）、奈飞（NFLX）涨超3%，AMD、亚马逊（AMZN）涨超2%；英特尔（INTC）跌超17%，创2024年8月以来最大单日跌 幅。 隔夜美股盘中走弱。截至收盘，美股三大指数涨跌不一，道指（DJI）跌0.58%，纳指涨0.28%，标普500（SPX）指数涨0.03%。 1月23日周五，全球贵金属市场迎来历史性时刻。在地缘政治不确定性持续发酵、以及市场对美联储年内降息预期升温的背景下，避险资金大举涌入黄金 与白银市场。现货白银价格盘中史上首次突破100美元/盎司关口，黄金同步刷新历史高位，逼近5000美元/盎司。 当地时间1月23日，截至收盘，ICE布油、NYMEX WTI原油均涨逾3%。 现货黄金价格逼近5000美元/盎司，高盛将2026年12 ...

Market Overview - On January 23, the three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.58%, the S&P 500 up 0.03%, and the Nasdaq up 0.28% [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 49,098.71, down 285.30 points [2] - The Nasdaq Composite closed at 23,501.24, up 65.22 points, while the S&P 500 closed at 6,915.61, up 2.26 points [2] Technology Sector Performance - Major technology stocks mostly rose, with the U.S. Technology Seven Index up 1.05% [2] - Notable gains included Microsoft up 3.34%, Amazon up 2.08%, and Facebook up 1.78%, while Tesla remained flat and Apple and Google saw minor declines [2] Semiconductor Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector showed mixed results, with some stocks rising while others fell [2] - Notable gainers included AMD up 2.35% and TSMC up 2.29%, while ASML fell 0.37%, Qualcomm down 1.25%, Broadcom down 1.70%, and ARM down 2.63% [2] Intel's Financial Results - Intel's stock price plummeted 17% to $45.07, ending a three-day streak of gains [3] - The company's Q4 revenue was reported at $13.7 billion, a 4% year-over-year decline, and the forecast for the current quarter is between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion, significantly below analyst expectations [3][4] Chinese Stocks Performance - Chinese stocks showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index down 0.26% and the Wande China Technology Leaders Index down 0.19% [4] - Notable gainers among popular Chinese stocks included Tencent Music up 4.74%, New Oriental up 2.18%, and Trip.com up 1.26% [4] Commodity Market Insights - The U.S. dollar index experienced a significant drop of 0.81%, marking the largest single-day decline since August of the previous year [4] - The weakening dollar contributed to a strong performance in the metals market, with spot gold slightly up and spot silver surging over 7% to $103.341 per ounce [6] Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices surged, with WTI and ICE Brent crude both rising over 3% [10] - Geopolitical tensions are escalating, with reports indicating that the Trump administration is considering a complete blockade on oil imports from Cuba [10]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results with the Dow Jones Industrial Average declining while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 experienced slight gains, indicating ongoing volatility in the market [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Dow Jones fell by 0.58%, marking a continued downward trend [1] - The Nasdaq increased by 0.28%, while the S&P 500 saw a marginal rise of 0.03% [1] - All three major indices recorded their second consecutive week of declines, with the Dow down 0.53%, the Nasdaq down 0.06%, and the S&P 500 down 0.35% for the week [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - The precious metals sector led the gains, with Pan American Silver rising over 4% [1] - Technology stocks exhibited mixed performance, with Microsoft and Netflix both increasing by over 3%, and AMD and Amazon rising by over 2% [1] - Intel experienced a significant drop of over 17%, marking its largest single-day decline since August 2024 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Investors are increasingly turning to gold as a safe haven amid rising concerns over bond yields, high stock market valuations, and policy uncertainties related to Trump, leading to significant price increases in gold [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The primary driver for the surge in gold prices is the "currency devaluation trade," where investors buy gold as a hedge against economic shocks and currency depreciation [2]. - Recent actions by Trump, including military threats and pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, have heightened investor caution and contributed to the demand for gold [2]. - The low interest rates set by the Federal Reserve have decreased the attractiveness of government bonds and cash, prompting more investors to turn to gold [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - A small shift of funds from large money market funds into gold could significantly impact gold prices, with estimates suggesting that a mere 0.01% increase in gold ETF holdings could raise gold prices by 1.4% [4]. - Central banks have become significant buyers of gold, with many countries increasing their gold reserves as a strategy to mitigate risks associated with sovereign debt [5][9]. - The high valuations in the stock market, particularly in technology stocks, have led investors to seek alternative investments, further driving demand for gold [10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the stability of market fundamentals and the credibility of regulatory institutions will influence the future trajectory of gold prices [3]. - Historical data indicates that gold prices tend to continue rising after significant annual increases, suggesting a strong potential for further price appreciation in the coming years [11][12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant upward movement in the U.S. stock market, with all three major indices rising over 1% on January 22, 2023 [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 1.2%, the S&P 500 rose by 1.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite also saw a 1.1% gain [1] - Notable technology stocks experienced a broad rally, with Nvidia rising nearly 3%, Micron Technology increasing by 6.6%, and AMD gaining 7.7% [1] - Storage-related stocks showed strong performance, with SanDisk rising over 10% and a cumulative increase of over 111% since the beginning of 2026, while Western Digital rose by more than 8% [1] - The regional bank index in the U.S. stock market surged by 4.7%, marking the largest single-day gain since August [1] - Chinese concept stocks also performed well, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increasing by 2.2%, and major Chinese stocks like Alibaba and Baidu rising by nearly 4% and over 8%, respectively [1] Group 2 - The upward trend in the U.S. stock market was influenced by previous statements from Trump, who suggested that "the stock market will double," contributing to the overall positive market sentiment [2]

Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a significant decline on January 20, with all three major indices falling sharply. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 870.74 points, closing at 48,488.59, marking a 1.76% decrease and the largest single-day drop in three months [3][4] - The S&P 500 index fell by 2.06% to 6,796.86 points, while the Nasdaq index saw a decline of 2.39%, closing at 22,954.32 points [3][4] Currency and Bond Market - The US dollar index also saw a notable decrease, dropping approximately 0.8% during the day and closing down nearly 0.5% [1] - US Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year yield increasing by 6.76 basis points to 4.2906%, and the 30-year yield rising by 7.92 basis points to 4.9158%, reaching new highs since September of the previous year [1] Sector Performance - Major technology stocks experienced significant declines, with Nvidia and Tesla both dropping over 4%. Other notable declines included Apple and Amazon, which fell by more than 3%, while Meta and Google saw declines of over 2% [4][6] - Financial stocks also faced losses, with Citigroup down over 4%, and both JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley declining by more than 3% [6] - Airline stocks mostly fell, with Delta Air Lines and United Airlines both dropping over 4% [7] Commodity Market - Gold and silver prices reached new historical highs, with COMEX gold futures surpassing $4,770 per ounce, reflecting a rise of approximately 2% [11] - COMEX silver futures approached $96 per ounce before retreating, indicating strong performance in the precious metals market amid geopolitical tensions [12]

北京时间1月21日凌晨，美股周二大幅收跌，道指下跌870点，标普指数录得10月以来的最大跌幅。美国 总统特朗普再次重申有关攫取格陵兰的强硬言论，威胁提高对欧洲八国的关税。市场避险情绪盛行，资 金逃离美国资产，美债收益率飙升。丹麦养老金运营商称正退出美国国债市场。 美国总统特朗普发出的最新关税威胁导致资金逃离美国资产，美国国债收益率飙升，美元下跌。 特朗普威胁对多个欧洲国家提高关税后，美国、美国国债和美元汇率全线下跌。欧美围绕格陵兰问题的 对峙不断升温。黄金价格创历史新高。 特朗普周六在其社交媒体平台Truth Social上发帖宣布，八个北约成员国的对美出口将面临逐步升档的关 税，"直到就完全和彻底购买格陵兰达成协议为止。" 特朗普表示，关税将从2月1日起以10%开始征收，并在6月1日升至25%。 随后，有报道称法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙不愿加入其所谓的"和平委员会（Board of Peace）"，特朗 普威胁要对法国出口葡萄酒和香槟征收200%的关税。 特朗普还抨击了英国，称英国政府计划将查戈斯群岛（Chagos Islands，其中一岛是美英军事基地所在 地）主权移交给毛里求斯是"极其愚蠢的行为"。他表 ...

2025复盘与2026趋势预判 《金融时报》记者：2025年全球经济在贸易政策、货币政策等多重因素影响下经历了显著波动，尤 其是美国在特朗普总统上任后推出了一系列备受关注的政策。首先请您整体回顾一下2025年，并展望 2026年全球宏观经济发展趋势。 温彬：2025年随着美国新任总统特朗普的上台，其推出的一系列政策显著增加了全球经济的不确定 性和运行风险。"对等关税"的推出一度对全球贸易产生重大影响，特朗普外交政策的转向也令盟友措手 不及。二季度美元资产的大幅波动削弱了"美国经济例外论"，也令特朗普的政策趋于妥协和缓和。随着 下半年各国与美国贸易谈判落地，贸易政策不确定性下降，全球资产也由"TACO交易"（特朗普总是临 阵退缩）转向美联储的降息交易。 展望2026年，特朗普的政策将沿着"中选为纲，关税调整，注重民生，财货双松"的路径前行；欧洲 将继续在地缘政治夹缝中寻求独立自主；日本则将面临高市经济学的挑战，整体看政策的不确定性将小 于2025年，风险趋向于收敛。美国、欧洲、日本等国家货币政策将继续向中性利率靠拢，其中美国和英 国仍有数次降息空间，欧元区将保持在较为平衡的利率水平，日本则在通胀压力下保持缓慢加 ...

Market Overview - On January 14, US stock indices collectively declined, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.09% to 49,149.63 points, the S&P 500 dropping by 0.53% to 6,926.6 points, and the Nasdaq decreasing by 1% to 23,471.75 points [3][4] - Major technology stocks experienced a downturn, with the US Tech Giants Index falling by 1.32%. Notable declines included Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft, each dropping over 2%, while Tesla and Nvidia fell over 1% [4] Chinese Stocks Performance - Chinese stocks showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down by 0.23% and the Wind Chinese Tech Leaders Index up by 0.21%. Century Internet surged over 7%, while stocks like Huya and Bilibili rose over 6% [6] Commodity Market - Silver prices reached new highs, with spot silver increasing by 7.01% and COMEX silver futures rising by 7.94%, both surpassing $93 per ounce. Gold also saw a moderate increase, with spot gold rising by 0.96% to $4,629.81 per ounce [9][11] - Analysts attribute the rise in silver prices to a tight supply-demand balance and strong macroeconomic support for gold, with industrial demand in sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles contributing to the bullish outlook [11] Oil Market - International oil prices rose on January 14, with light crude oil futures increasing by $0.87 to $62.02 per barrel (1.42% rise) and Brent crude futures up by $1.05 to $66.52 per barrel (1.6% rise) [13] - OPEC maintained its forecast for global oil demand growth, predicting an increase of 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026, reaching an average of 106.52 million barrels per day [13]