2025 年 6 月 10 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 白银期货再创上市以来新高 白银期 货将震荡偏强 铜、原油期货将偏强震荡 焦煤期货将震荡偏 弱 螺纹钢、铁矿石、玻璃、纯碱期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将偏强震荡：IF2506 阻力位 3879 和 3890 点，支撑位 3855 和 3848 点；IH2506 阻力位 2689 和 2699 点，支撑位 2664 和 2653 点；IC2506 阻力位 5817 和 5850 点，支撑位 57 ...

Group 1 - Despite signs of a cooling labor market and slowing economic activity, Wall Street strategists remain optimistic about summer stock market performance, maintaining S&P 500 year-end target prices in the range of 6300-6500 points, believing the worst impact of tariffs may have passed [1][4] - The S&P 500 index closed at 6010 points, approximately 2% below its historical high, following a nearly 30% correction earlier this year [1][4] - Recent economic data shows weakness, with May ADP private sector employment adding only 37,000 jobs, the lowest in over two years, and initial jobless claims rising to the highest level since October 2024 [4][5] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, David Kostin, noted that the slowdown in economic data was anticipated, and historical analysis shows that soft economic data often bottoms out before hard economic data [5][8] - Kostin's research indicates that the correlation between the S&P 500 index returns and soft data is currently higher than that with hard data, predicting the S&P 500 could reach 6500 points in the next 12 months if the recovery in soft data continues [5][8] - Citigroup's U.S. equity strategy head, Scott Chronert, raised the S&P 500 target from 5800 to 6300 points, citing a significant reduction in trade uncertainty following the pause in tariff increases between the U.S. and China [5][8] Group 3 - Despite acknowledging potential risks from rising interest rates and high valuations, strategists believe that as long as the economic slowdown does not exceed expectations, growth sectors, particularly large tech stocks, still hold investment value [8] - The dual support from easing trade tensions and improving soft data is becoming a key basis for strategists' optimistic outlook [8]

新华财经上海6月8日电（葛佳明） 本周（6月2日-7日），美国5月非农数据超预期，部分缓解衰退担忧，美联储降息概率有所降低，美债收益率居高难 下，。欧洲央行如期降息却释放"鹰派"的信号，市场对其年内降息预期下滑。美元本周走低，现货黄金整体走高，贵金属市场迎来集体上涨。 欧股方面，欧洲各国股市本周多数上涨，欧洲STOXX 600指数本周累计上涨0.91%；德国DAX指数周累计上涨1.28%；法国CAC 指数全周累计上涨0.68%； 英国富时100指数全周累计上涨0.75%。 亚太股指方面，日经225指数本周转跌，全周累计跌幅为0.59%；印度SENSEX30指数全周涨0.91%；韩国综合指数本周涨4.24%。 外汇市场方面，美元指数本周走势震荡下行全周累计下跌0.24%，收报99.2；非美货币涨多跌少，欧元全周累计上涨0.42%，报1.13，日元兑美元全周累计跌 0.55%，报144.85。 大宗商品方面，近期金价维持震荡走势，本周黄金涨幅0.47%。白银、铂金近期走势强劲，伦敦现货白银突破36美元关口，白银期货主力合约全周涨幅达 9.39%，涨至36.13美元／盎司。 业内人士普遍认为，白银、铂金等贵金属大涨 ...

就业数据利好 美股大涨 6月6日晚间，美股三大指数开盘大涨，涨幅均在1%左右。 消息面上，美国就业数据缓解了对经济即将放缓的担忧，在特朗普与马斯克激烈言语交锋引发市场动荡后，华尔街得以稳定。 特斯拉上涨5.52%，领涨大型科技股。 大家好，今晚继续关注海外市场的表现。 Ameriprise首席市场策略师安东尼·萨格利姆贝内在接受采访时表示："非农就业数据好于预期，这表明尽管增长趋势有所放缓，就业市场依然 表现强劲。" | 了 筛选 | | 最新价 = | 涨跌幅 = □* | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 特斯拉 | | 300.41 | +5.52% | | US TSLA | | | | | 美光科技 | 2 | 110.63 | +4.09% | | us MU | | | | | 安谋 | 11 | 134.56 | +3.87% | | US ARM | | | | | 谷歌-C | | 174.62 | +2.83% | | us GOOG | | | | | 赛富时 | 5 | 272.74 | +2.10% | | us CRM | | | | | 亚马逊 US AM ...

*三大股指上扬，纳指涨近0.7%； *中长期美债收益率走高，基准10年期美债报4.61%； *受特朗普言论影响，汽车和钢铁股悲喜两重天。 周一美股低开高走，尽管美国总统特朗普发表上调进口钢铁和铝关税言论，但投资者仍对美国与其贸易 伙伴之间的贸易谈判持乐观态度。截至收盘，道指涨35.41点，涨幅0.08%，报42305.48点，录得日线三 连阳，纳指涨0.67%，报19242.61点，标普500指数涨0.41%，报5935.94点。 明星科技股涨多跌少，Meta Platforms涨3.6%，英伟达涨1.6%，亚马逊涨0.8%，苹果涨0.4%，微软涨 0.3%，谷歌跌1.5%。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨0.5%。 市场概述 经济数据方面，供应管理协会（ISM）周一公布的数据显示，美国5月份制造业指数跌至48.5，连续第 三个月收缩，供应商在关税压力下交付投入的时间更长，这可能预示着一些商品即将出现短缺。 标普全球市场情报（S&P Global Market Intelligence）首席商业经济学家威廉姆森（Chris Williamson） 表示，尽管上个月制造商的整体情绪有所改善，部分原因是暂停关税，但"在不 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses how Trump's actions have inadvertently revealed long-standing investment biases among investors, shaped by their past experiences, which may not be applicable to future market conditions [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Strategies and Biases - The "buying the dip" strategy has been a golden rule for investors in the U.S. stock market over the past 30 years, largely due to Federal Reserve interventions following market downturns [3][4]. - There is skepticism about the reliability of the "buying the dip" strategy in the current market environment, especially with challenges to the Federal Reserve's credibility [4]. - Historical data shows that stocks have generally outperformed bonds over long periods, but recent studies suggest that bonds have outperformed stocks in several 20-year periods [4][5]. - The belief that gold is a poor investment has been challenged by its recent performance, with significant price increases since 2015, contrasting with the views of older investors who experienced declines in the past [6][7]. - The dominance of U.S. tech stocks, particularly the "Magnificent Seven," has created a perception of guaranteed returns, but broader market indices like Russell 2000 have not shown similar growth [7][10]. - The article highlights a shift in investment performance, with value stocks beginning to outperform growth stocks, suggesting a potential reevaluation of investment strategies [12]. - Cash, once deemed unattractive due to low interest rates, has regained appeal as interest rates rise, outperforming stocks and bonds in certain markets [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current trends in the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets, highlighting a shift towards a dividend-focused market as opposed to a financing-driven one, with significant growth in dividend payouts and a decrease in new stock issuances. Market Performance - The overall market is experiencing an upward trend, with the closing rating at 5 stars, close to 4.9 stars [1] - All market caps (large, mid, and small) are rising, with small-cap stocks showing greater elasticity [2] - Growth styles are generally on the rise [3] - Technology and healthcare sectors are leading the gains, particularly innovative pharmaceuticals [4] - The Hong Kong stock market is also seeing overall increases, with technology stocks leading the charge [5] Earnings Recovery - In Q1 of this year, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have shown a recovery in earnings growth [6] - Notably, technology and healthcare stocks have experienced significant year-on-year earnings growth, becoming leading sectors post-Spring Festival [7] - Other sectors are expected to enter a phase of earnings recovery as well [8] Tariff Impact - The recent market rise is partially attributed to tariff-related developments, particularly the U.S. federal court's organization of Trump's tariff policy effective April 2 [9] - The increase in tariffs was a major factor leading to a global stock market decline in early April, and the obstruction of these tariffs is beneficial for the global stock market [10] - Recently, the global stock market has largely recovered from the declines experienced in early April [11] - However, Trump remains an unstable factor, with potential for further policy changes [12] Dividend Market Transition - A significant change in A-shares over recent years is the encouragement for listed companies to increase their dividend payout ratios [13] - The dividend payout ratio indicates the percentage of profits distributed as dividends [14] - Historically, A-shares distributed 30-40% of profits as dividends, which has increased to 40-50% in recent years [16][17] - The total dividend payout for A-shares in 2024 is projected to reach a historical high of approximately 2.4 trillion [18] - The frequency of dividends has also increased, with more companies distributing dividends twice a year and some experimenting with quarterly dividends [19] Financing Trends - In previous years, A-shares experienced a surge in new stock issuances, but this has significantly decreased following regulatory changes [20] - The total financing from new IPOs in A-shares for 2024 is expected to be only 67.3 billion [21] - Including convertible bonds and additional financing, the total financing amount is around 288 billion [22] - The opportunities for new stock and bond issuances have diminished considerably in recent years [23] - A-shares have transitioned into a standard dividend market, with total dividends far exceeding total financing [24] Future Projections - For 2025, the dividend payout ratio is expected to continue increasing, with total dividends projected to grow further [25] - New stock issuance is anticipated to remain low in 2025 [26] - The issuance of REITs has increased compared to previous years, but REITs are also high-dividend products, suggesting that over time, REITs will also see dividends surpass financing amounts [27] - It is expected that 2025 will maintain the trend of total dividends exceeding total financing [28] - This shift represents a positive long-term direction for A-shares, moving from a financing market to a dividend market [29] Fund Dividend Trends - The increase in stock dividends has also led to a rise in fund dividends [33] - In previous years, there was debate over whether funds should distribute dividends, but this controversy has diminished [34] - The number and scale of regularly distributing funds have grown significantly, reflecting high investor demand for such funds [36] - From early 2025 to mid-May 2025, the total amount of fund dividends has increased by 40% compared to 2024 [39] - Bond funds and dividend equity funds are the primary contributors to this increase in dividends [40] Valuation Tables - The article includes valuation tables for dividend indices and funds for reference [42] - These tables provide insights into earnings yield, price-to-earnings ratio, and other financial metrics for various indices and funds [42]

Group 1 - Major industry ETFs in the U.S. stock market are mostly rising at the beginning of trading [1] - The semiconductor ETF has increased by over 2% [1] - The global airline industry ETF and the global technology stock index ETF are among the top gainers [1]

Group 1 - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to renewed risk aversion driven by geopolitical tensions and concerns over U.S. fiscal health, with gold surpassing $3,300 per ounce [1][2] - The U.S. government's trade policies, particularly the proposed tariffs on the EU, have negatively impacted U.S. stock indices, leading to a decline in major tech stocks [2] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, reflecting growing concerns over U.S. fiscal stability, which has increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][4] Group 2 - Copper and oil prices have also risen significantly due to geopolitical risks and a weakening dollar, with WTI crude oil settling at $61.53 per barrel and Brent crude at $64.78 per barrel [3] - OPEC+ is expected to announce an increase in production, which may influence oil prices further, while the copper market has seen a price increase of over 5% in May [3] - The short-term impact of U.S. tariffs on metal exports is becoming evident, but low inventory levels are providing some support for metal prices [4]

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.61% at 41,603.07 points, the S&P 500 down 0.67% at 5,802.82 points, and the Nasdaq down 1% at 18,737.21 points [1] - Popular tech stocks experienced declines, with Apple dropping over 3%, and Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, and Meta each falling over 1% [1] - European stock indices also closed lower, with the German DAX down 1.54% at 23,629.58 points, the French CAC40 down 1.65% at 7,734.4 points, and the UK FTSE 100 down 0.24% at 8,717.97 points [1] Commodity Prices - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 1.90% at $3,357.70 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 1.27% at $33.64 per ounce [1] - International oil prices strengthened, with the main US oil contract rising 0.92% to $61.76 per barrel and Brent crude rising 0.92% to $65.03 per barrel [1] - London base metals saw an overall increase, with LME lead up 1.22% at $1,994.00 per ton, LME copper up 1.19% at $9,614.00 per ton, and LME aluminum up 0.41% at $2,466.00 per ton [1] Bond Market - US Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 2-year yield down 0.43 basis points at 3.982%, the 10-year yield down 2.26 basis points at 4.506%, and the 30-year yield down 0.29 basis points at 5.038% [1] - European bond yields also declined, with the UK 10-year yield down 6.8 basis points at 4.679%, the French 10-year yield down 6 basis points at 3.258%, and the German 10-year yield down 7.6 basis points at 2.565% [1]