【#小米回应存储成本攀升#】在18日举行的小米三季度业绩媒体电话会上，小米集团总裁卢伟冰就存储 成本攀升问题作出回应。他透露小米已提前布局，与合作伙伴签订了2026年全年供应协议，确保全年供 应不受影响，并表示未来可能通过涨价和产品结构升级来平滑成本压力。同时，他表示2025年第四季度 小米汽车仍将保持稳定状态，不过2026年将非常具有挑战。他透露："预计明年小米汽车的毛利率相比 于今年，或出现下滑。"此外，卢伟冰解释："明年汽车厂家都面临购置税补贴政策减半的影响，另外汽 车行业玩家多，产业发展处于非常早期的阶段，需要经过一段时间激烈的竞争才会收敛，小米汽车要顺 应行业的变化。"（综合科创板日报）#小米未来五年研发投入或超2000亿# #明年小米汽车毛利率或不 及今年# 来源：@中新经纬微博 ...

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group reported steady growth in Q3 2025, with revenue reaching 113.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.3%, and adjusted net profit of 11.3 billion yuan, up 80.9% [1] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters, total revenue was 340.4 billion yuan, nearing last year's total, with adjusted net profit of 32.8 billion yuan, surpassing the entire profit for 2024 [1] - Q3 revenue from the smartphone and AIoT segment was 84.1 billion yuan, while the innovative business segment, including smart electric vehicles, generated 29 billion yuan, showing over 199% growth [3] Research and Development - Cumulative R&D investment reached 23.5 billion yuan in the first three quarters, close to the total for 2024, with expectations to exceed 30 billion yuan for the full year 2025 [4] - Q3 R&D spending was 9.1 billion yuan, a 52.1% increase year-on-year, marking a record high for a single quarter [9] Market Performance - Q3 smartphone revenue was 46 billion yuan, with global shipments of 43.3 million units, achieving year-on-year growth for nine consecutive quarters [4] - Xiaomi's market share in the high-end smartphone segment (4,000-6,000 yuan) reached 18.9%, up 5.6 percentage points year-on-year [6] Internet Services - Q3 revenue from internet services was 9.4 billion yuan, a 10.8% increase, with a gross margin of 76.9%, the highest for the same period [4] - Overseas internet service revenue reached 3.3 billion yuan, a 19.1% increase, accounting for 34.9% of total internet revenue, a historical high [5] Electric Vehicle Segment - The smart electric vehicle and AI segment generated 29 billion yuan in Q3, with 28.3 billion yuan from electric vehicles alone, marking the first quarter of positive operating profit at 700 million yuan [5] - Q3 electric vehicle deliveries exceeded 100,000 units, setting a record for a single quarter, with total deliveries surpassing 260,000 units in the first three quarters [5] Technological Advancements - Xiaomi launched the "Xiaomi-MiMo-Audio" voice open-source model in September, enhancing its AI capabilities [9] - The company introduced the Xiaomi Surge OS 3 in Q3, upgrading user experience across its product ecosystem [10] Strategic Outlook - Analysts from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley highlighted Xiaomi's strong balance sheet and ecosystem integration, suggesting that the synergy between smartphones, electric vehicles, and AIoT will drive long-term growth potential [10]

Core Insights - Apple's iPhone shipments in China surged by 37% year-on-year in October 2025, reaching a market share of 25%, marking the highest monthly record since 2022 [1] - The iPhone 17 series, particularly the standard iPhone 17, significantly contributed to this growth, with all models achieving double-digit growth [1][4] Group 1 - Counterpoint's data indicates that the new iPhone models accounted for over 80% of Apple's domestic sales in October, leading to the strongest start for the December quarter in the company's history [4] - The overall smartphone market in China experienced an 8% year-on-year increase in shipments in October, driven by the strong performance of the iPhone 17 series [4]

Core Viewpoint - Despite a strong Q3 2025 financial report, Xiaomi Group's stock price continues to face pressure, dropping over 30% since its peak in June 2023 [2] Financial Performance - Xiaomi reported Q3 revenue of 113.1 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 22.3%, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of revenue exceeding 100 billion RMB [5] - Adjusted net profit reached 11.3 billion RMB, a significant year-on-year increase of 80.9%, setting a new historical high [5] - As of September 30, 2025, cash and cash equivalents stood at 35.5 billion RMB, with total cash reserves at 236.7 billion RMB [5] Business Segments - The automotive and AI sectors emerged as the biggest highlights, with revenue reaching 29 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of over 199%, and automotive revenue alone at 28.3 billion RMB [5] - This segment achieved its first quarterly operating profit of 700 million RMB [5] Future Outlook - The fourth quarter is expected to maintain stability in the automotive sector, but 2026 is anticipated to be challenging, with a potential decline in automotive gross margins compared to 2025 [5][6] - Factors contributing to this outlook include a reduction in purchase tax subsidies and increased competition within the automotive industry [6] Smartphone Business - In the core smartphone segment, Q3 revenue was 46 billion RMB, with global shipments reaching 43.3 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.5% [7] - Xiaomi has proactively addressed rising memory prices, which are driven by increased demand from AI applications rather than traditional market cycles, by securing supply agreements for 2026 [7]

Group 1: AI Developments - Google launched its new AI model Gemini 3, claiming it to be the "most intelligent" and "most factually reliable" AI system to date, with enhanced capabilities for handling text, images, and audio simultaneously [2] - Tesla plans to build its own chip factory due to slow progress from existing suppliers, estimating a need for 100 billion to 200 billion AI chips annually, which current suppliers cannot meet [4] - Arm and Nvidia are deepening their collaboration on AI chips, allowing integration of Arm-based CPUs with Nvidia's AI technology [9] Group 2: Company Financials - Baidu reported Q3 revenue of 31.174 billion yuan, a 7% year-over-year decline, with a net loss of 11.232 billion yuan primarily due to asset impairment, but AI-driven business revenue grew over 50% to approximately 10 billion yuan [10] - Pinduoduo's Q3 revenue reached 108.2765 billion yuan, a 9% increase year-over-year, with a net profit of 29.3282 billion yuan, up 17% [11] - Xiaomi's Q3 revenue was 113.12 billion yuan, a 22.3% year-over-year increase, with adjusted net profit rising 80.9% to 11.31 billion yuan [12] Group 3: Product and Market Developments - UBTECH responded to criticism regarding its Walker S2 robot delivery video, releasing an unedited version to confirm the presence of multiple robots [3] - Xiaomi secured a long-term memory supply agreement for 2026 to mitigate market volatility and prepare for AI computing demands [5] - Cloudflare experienced a network outage affecting access to platforms like ChatGPT and X, with ongoing investigations into the issue [6] Group 4: Industry Innovations - The Chinese government announced advancements in the certification and quality assurance system for domestic automotive chips, marking a significant step in establishing a self-sufficient automotive chip quality framework [8] - Quark app integrated the Qianwen dialogue assistant, positioning itself as an AI browser, with plans for a major upgrade [17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group with a target price of HKD 53.8, down from HKD 65.4 [5][13]. Core Insights - Xiaomi's Q3 2025 performance showed a total revenue increase of 22% year-on-year to RMB 113.1 billion, aligning with expectations, while adjusted net profit surged by 80.9% to RMB 11.31 billion, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 12.6% [1][5]. - The report highlights that the storage super cycle is a significant variable affecting Xiaomi's stock price and performance in 2026. Compared to other smartphone manufacturers, Xiaomi has advantages in smartphone shipment volume (third globally), high-end smartphone ratio, and a robust non-mobile business that is less impacted by storage costs [1][2]. - The report anticipates that storage price increases will affect Xiaomi's smartphone shipment volume, product pricing, and gross margins, leading to a downward revision of the 2026 smartphone shipment forecast to 165 million units from 182 million units, and gross margin to 10.7% from 12% [2][3]. Summary by Sections Smartphone/IoT/Internet Business - In Q3, Xiaomi's smartphone shipments reached 43.3 million units (+0.5% YoY), maintaining a global market share of 13.6%. Gross margin decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 11.1% amid rising storage costs [2]. - IoT business revenue grew by 5.6% YoY to RMB 27.6 billion, with gross margin improving by 1.4 percentage points to 23.9% [2]. - Internet business revenue increased by 10.8% YoY to RMB 9.4 billion, maintaining a high gross margin of 76.9% [2]. Automotive Business - The automotive segment began to turn profitable in Q3 2025, with deliveries reaching a record high of 109,000 units. Revenue increased by 37% quarter-on-quarter to RMB 25.9 billion, with a gross margin of 25.5%, up 8.4 percentage points YoY [2]. - The report maintains a 2026 automotive shipment forecast of 700,000 units, with expectations for continued profitability and growth driven by the company's high-end strategy and capacity ramp-up [2][3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report revises revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 down by 0.3%/2.3%/1.9% and non-GAAP net profit forecasts down by 1.6%/7.6%/4.3% to RMB 43.4 billion, RMB 48.2 billion, and RMB 62.4 billion respectively [3][9]. - Using a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, the target price is set at HKD 53.8, corresponding to a 27x PE for 2026 [3][13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights that Xiaomi Group's stock price has weakened following its Q3 2025 earnings report, with a significant drop below the critical HKD 40 mark [1] - Xiaomi's Q3 2025 revenue reached RMB 113.12 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.3%, surpassing market expectations of RMB 112.50 billion [1] - The adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 was RMB 11.31 billion, showing an impressive year-on-year increase of 80.9%, exceeding market expectations of RMB 10.05 billion [1] Group 2 - Xiaomi's innovative business segments, including smart electric vehicles and AI, generated revenue of RMB 29 billion in Q3 2025, marking a historical high [1] - The smart electric vehicle segment alone contributed RMB 28.3 billion, while other related businesses accounted for RMB 700 million [1] - For the first time, Xiaomi's smart electric vehicle and AI segments achieved operational profitability in a single quarter, with an operating profit of RMB 700 million [1] Group 3 - Huatai Securities indicated that the storage supercycle is a significant variable affecting Xiaomi's stock price and performance in 2026 [2] - Compared to other smartphone manufacturers, Xiaomi holds advantages in smartphone shipment volume (third globally), high-end smartphone market share, and a robust non-mobile business scale less affected by storage prices [2] - The firm has lowered its profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027, reflecting the impact of rising storage prices on the smartphone business, while remaining optimistic about Xiaomi's opportunities in smart electric vehicles and smart home appliances [2]

Core Insights - Despite a strong Q3 2025 financial report, Xiaomi Group's stock price continues to face pressure, dropping over 30% since its peak in June 2025 [1] Financial Performance - Xiaomi reported Q3 revenue of 113.1 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 22.3%, marking the fourth consecutive quarter exceeding 100 billion RMB [4] - Adjusted net profit reached 11.3 billion RMB, a significant year-on-year increase of 80.9%, setting a historical high [4] - As of September 30, 2025, cash and cash equivalents stood at 35.5 billion RMB, with total cash reserves at 236.7 billion RMB [4] Business Highlights - The automotive and AI sectors emerged as key growth areas, with revenue from these segments reaching 29 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of over 199%, including 28.3 billion RMB from automotive sales [4] - Xiaomi delivered a record 108,796 new vehicles in Q3, with an annual delivery target of 350,000 vehicles expected to be met [4] Challenges and Outlook - The company anticipates challenges in 2026, particularly regarding automotive gross margins, which may decline due to reduced purchase tax subsidies and increased competition in the automotive sector [6] - The gross margin for Xiaomi's smart electric vehicles and AI innovation business was reported at 25.5% for Q3 [6] - In the smartphone segment, revenue was 46 billion RMB, with global shipments reaching 43.3 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.5% [6] - The company is addressing rising memory prices, attributed to increased demand from AI, by securing supply agreements for 2026 and considering price adjustments and product upgrades to manage cost pressures [6]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi's stock price has continued to decline, dropping over 30% since reaching a peak of HKD 61.45 on June 27, despite a strong Q3 earnings report released the following day [2][3]. Financial Performance - Xiaomi Group reported total revenue of RMB 113.12 billion for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.3%, surpassing market expectations of RMB 112.5 billion [3][5]. - Adjusted net profit reached RMB 11.31 billion, marking an 80.9% increase year-on-year and setting a historical high [3][5]. - Gross profit rose by 37.4% to RMB 25.94 billion, with gross margin improving from 20.4% to 22.9% compared to the same period last year [8]. Business Segments - The smartphone and AIoT segment generated revenue of RMB 84.1 billion, reflecting a 1.6% year-on-year growth [5]. - The innovative business segment, including smart electric vehicles and AI, achieved a record revenue of RMB 29 billion, a remarkable 199.2% increase year-on-year, and recorded its first quarterly operating profit of RMB 700 million [6]. Challenges Ahead - Xiaomi Group's president, Lu Weibing, indicated that 2026 will present numerous challenges, including a reduction in purchase tax subsidies and increased competition in the automotive sector [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group's stock price has been on a downward trend, dropping over 30% since its peak in June, despite strong financial results reported for Q3 2025 [3][4]. Financial Performance - Xiaomi Group reported total revenue of RMB 113.12 billion for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.3%, exceeding market expectations of RMB 112.5 billion [4][7]. - Adjusted net profit reached RMB 11.31 billion, marking an 80.9% increase year-on-year, achieving a historical high [4][7]. - Gross profit rose by 37.4% to RMB 25.94 billion, with a gross margin improvement from 20.4% to 22.9% compared to the same period last year [10]. Business Segments - The smartphone and AIoT segment generated revenue of RMB 84.1 billion, reflecting a 1.6% year-on-year growth [7]. - The smart electric vehicle and AI innovation segment saw significant growth, with revenue reaching RMB 29 billion, a remarkable 199.2% increase year-on-year, and achieving operational profitability for the first time with earnings of RMB 700 million [8]. Future Challenges - Xiaomi Group's president, Lu Weibing, highlighted potential challenges for 2026, including a reduction in purchase tax subsidies and increased competition in the automotive sector, which may lead to a decline in profit margins for Xiaomi's automotive business [11].