Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The global economy is entering the top region due to the continuous wrong policies in the United States [2] - The liquidity crunch is the core factor driving the stock market decline, and further decline may lead to "mechanical" selling [1] - Top investors are taking a more cautious stance on high - valuation tech stocks due to rising systemic risks [1] - The importance of retail investors in the US stock market, especially in the options market, is increasing [1][2] - AI and robotics are considered the only way to get rid of the debt crisis and prevent US bankruptcy [1] - AI may lead to a slowdown in corporate recruitment and a "quiet period" in the labor market [1] - The loose financial environment supporting the AI boom is reaching an inflection point [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Global Economy and Finance - Morgan Chase believes the liquidity crunch drives the stock market decline, and further drops may trigger "mechanical" selling [1] - Billionaire Peter Thiel's fund, Bridgewater, and SoftBank have reduced their holdings in NVIDIA, and top investors are cautious about high - valuation tech stocks [1] - Retail investors are among the largest net buyers of the US stock market this year, and their trading volume in the options market has exceeded that of institutions [1][2] - Musk thinks AI and robotics are the only way to avoid US bankruptcy due to unsustainable federal debt growth [1] - US White House economic advisor Hasset says AI boosts labor productivity but may slow corporate recruitment [1] - Amazon raised $15 billion through bond issuance, and the total bond issuance of four major tech giants in the past two months exceeded $80 billion. The financial environment supporting the AI boom is changing [1] - UBS's chairman discussed the possibility of relocating its headquarters to the US due to Switzerland's capital requirements [1] - India's October goods trade deficit hit a record high of $41.7 billion due to increased gold imports and high - tariff impacts on US exports [1] Global Economic Logic - The end of the US government shutdown will inject trillions of dollars from the US Treasury's general account into the market [2] - NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun believes China will win the AI competition due to a favorable regulatory environment and lower energy costs [2] - Huawei announced "ten major inventions" in computing power infrastructure and storage [2] - Goldman Sachs CEO is optimistic about the Hong Kong and mainland China stock markets [2] - JPMorgan strategists estimate that at least $5 trillion is needed for the AI data center construction boom in the next five years [2] - US data center electricity demand is rising, and a 44 - gigawatt power gap is expected by 2028 [2] - US household excess savings accumulated during the pandemic are almost exhausted, and consumer slowdown has spread to the middle - income group [2] - US corporate layoffs in October reached 153,074, mainly in the technology and warehousing industries, a significant increase from September and almost three times that of last year [2]

Market Overview - The recent adjustment in the A-share market is attributed to multiple factors, including external pressures from the Federal Reserve's stance against recent interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions affecting market risk appetite [2][12] - The 4000-point level is not just a psychological barrier but also a significant technical resistance due to historical trapped positions since 2015, leading to market confidence issues [2][12] - The market is experiencing structural differentiation, with a rapid rotation between sectors resulting in a general lack of profit-making opportunities [2][12] Short-term Market Sentiment - Despite the recent three-day decline, the market's risk is gradually being released, indicating that the short-term adjustment may be nearing its end [3][13] - There is no sign of panic selling, suggesting a healthy adjustment rather than a trend reversal [3][13] - Anticipation for two important meetings in December, which will set the economic policy for the next year, is high, potentially serving as a catalyst for market recovery [3][13] Economic Indicators - The October CPI stabilization indicates a recovery in economic momentum [3][13] - The overall monetary policy remains accommodative, with potential for further easing measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts or interest rate reductions, which could provide ample liquidity support for the market [3][13] Sector Performance - AI application concept stocks have shown resilience, with significant gains in related sectors such as software development and semiconductor industries [8][11] - The cultural media sector, including gaming and entertainment, has also performed well, with a notable increase in stock prices despite broader market declines [9][10] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a balanced approach to investment, focusing on sectors with strong performance indicators, including technology growth areas (semiconductors, AI themes) and cyclical industries (solar energy, batteries, chemicals) [4][14] - Emphasis is placed on selecting stocks with solid earnings support during market dips to optimize investment returns [4][14]

2025 年 11 月 19 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：47 分（中性） 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 | 1、《双融日报》2025-11-18 | | --- | | 2、《双融日报》2025-11-17 | | 3、《双融日报》2025-11-14 | ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（中性） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 47 分，市场情绪处于"中性"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：有色金属、电力设备、银行 1、有色金属主题：美元降息提振需求预期，AI 数据中心拉 动边际增量。铜：金融属性叠加矿端紧张、冶炼厂减产，传 统需求韧性+AI 拉动，价格中枢上移。铝：国内产能见顶、 海外增量有限，十五五开局紧平衡强化。相关标的：紫金矿 业（601899）、中国铝业（601600） 2、电力设备主题：在全球能源转型与数字化转型的交汇点， 人工智能正加速渗透电力行业 ...

据了解，三亚亚沙会构建了涵盖官方高级合作伙伴、官方合作伙伴、官方赞助商、官方独家供应商、官 方供应商、支持单位六个层级的赞助体系，各层级赞助企业可享受定制化权益回报。作为官方高级合作伙 伴，中国工商银行股份有限公司不仅获得三亚亚沙会徽、吉祥物等知识产权的使用权，还享有赛事冠名关 联、品牌标识展示等核心权益。在款待服务方面，官方供应商及以上层级赞助企业享受赞助商指定酒店住 宿，官方高级合作伙伴和官方合作伙伴享受赛时专车服务，各层级赞助企业更拥有相应的广告谈判权和门票 优先权，为企业商务拓展提供便利。 更具吸引力的是，三亚亚沙会赞助权益与海南自贸港政策形成强大叠加效应。自贸港的税收优惠、外汇 便利化、跨境贸易支持等政策，为赞助企业降低了运营成本。中国工商银行借助自贸港支付便利化政策，优 化外卡受理环境、布放外币兑换机、推广数字人民币支付，既完成赛事金融服务任务，又同步拓展了自贸港 跨境金融业务版图。 自贸港政策红利叠加 赛事品牌价值放大 三亚亚沙会为赞助商搭建共享发展桥梁 三亚亚沙会吉祥物"亚亚"走进中国工商银行开展宣传活动。三亚亚沙会组委会供图 海南日报三亚11月18日电(海南日报全媒体记者 郭畅 李艳玫)"5 ...

目前，"一键查卡"已支持查询用户在493家银行的银行卡开立情况，其中包括18家全国性商业银行和各 省份的475家区域性商业银行。截至目前，该功能已服务超2000万用户。 为进一步保障金融消费者资金安全和合法权益，中国银联联合商业银行，持续优化云闪付APP上"一键 查卡"功能。目前该服务已支持查询用户在近500家银行的银行卡开立情况，为公众高效管理个人银行账 户提供有力的抓手。 着眼"睡眠账户"的规范管理，云闪付"一键查卡"功能不仅是一项便民服务，更对提升全民金融安全意识 具有积极意义。当前，一键查卡功能已被中宣部、公安部、工信部、人民银行等部委评为八大反诈利器 之一，助力筑牢防范资金风险、保护民众"钱袋子"的有效防线，构建安全、稳定、健康的金融环境。 近期，多家商业银行发布"睡眠账户"管理相关公告。着眼于便利社会公众全面、便捷地掌握个人银行卡 账户开立账户情况，在中国人民银行指导下，中国银联联合商业银行在2021年12月开始为用户提供便捷 查询名下银行卡账户的服务，在确保信息安全的前提下，方便人民群众直接掌握个人名下银行卡信息， 强化自身银行卡管理。 用户可以点击打开云闪付APP，在搜索框中输入"一键查卡"， ...

11月18日，中国人民银行北京市分行等12部门印发 《金融支持北京市提振和扩大消费的实施方案》 。 以下是全文： 金融支持北京市提振和扩大消费的实施方案 争到2030年 北京市消费领域金融服务水平进一步提升 ，北京市住宿餐饮、文旅体育、教育、居民服务等服务消费和养老产业贷款余额持续增 长、信贷投放力度不断加大，个人消费金融服务质效不断提升，金融助力北京国际消费中心城市建设取得积极进展，多元化消费金融服务体 系基本建成。 为深入贯彻党中央、国务院关于大力提振消费的决策部署，落实《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》（银发〔2025〕122号）文件以 及北京市委市政府工作要求，围绕助力国际消费中心城市建设，强化北京市商品消费和服务消费金融供给，更好满足北京市消费领域金融服 务需求，推动大力提振消费，制定本方案。 一、总体目标 以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，深入贯彻落实党的二十大和二十届二中、三中、四中全会及中央经济工作会议精神，完整、 准确、全面贯彻新发展理念，不断完善金融服务体系，提升金融服务能力，聚焦消费重点领域和环节加大金融支持力度。力争到2030年北京 市消费领域金融服务水平进一步提升，北京 ...

作为美国国债最大的海外持有国，日本的持仓增加了89亿美元，至1.19万亿美元，为2022年8月以来的 最高水平。 "最让我关注的是日本的动向，"道富银行（State Street）策略师李·费里奇（Lee Ferridge）表示，"增持 美国国债可能是日元持续走弱的一个因素，也可能表明尽管日本国内收益率上升，日本投资者仍对日本 国债持谨慎态度。" 近几个月来，日元兑美元汇率持续走弱，周二跌至2月以来的最低水平，同时也是今年十国集团 （G10）货币中表现最差的币种。 英国是美国国债第二大海外持有国，其持仓减少了393亿美元，至8650亿美元。 中国作为美国国债第三大海外持有国，9月持仓较前一月微降5亿美元，至7005亿美元。市场分析师表 示，比利时的持仓中包含中国的托管账户，该国9月持仓增加了125亿美元，至4668亿美元。 海外投资者持有的美国国债在8月创下历史新高后，9月仅出现小幅回落，其中英国减持，而日本的持仓 攀升至三年多来的最高水平。 9月，外国投资者持有的美国国债总额为9.25万亿美元，8月为9.26万亿美元。持仓变化受净买卖以及估 值变动影响，彭博美国国债指数在8月和9月均有所上涨。 美国财政部周 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that global investors are optimistic about the Japanese yen's performance in 2024, expecting it to outperform major currencies after a tumultuous year [1][3]. - Approximately one-third of the 170 fund managers surveyed by Bank of America believe the yen will deliver the best returns next year, with gold and the US dollar following closely behind [1][6]. - The yen's current optimism contrasts sharply with its lackluster performance this year, where the USD/JPY pair has only risen by 1%, placing it at the bottom among G10 currencies [3]. Group 2 - Factors contributing to the yen's poor performance include the Bank of Japan's ambiguous stance on interest rate hikes and the newly elected Prime Minister's support for loose monetary policies, which are expected to lead to higher spending plans [4]. - Investors' optimism for the yen in 2026 may stem from its undervalued status, reflecting ongoing low investment in Japanese assets, with a net underweight in Japanese stocks of 4% among the surveyed investors [4]. - The potential for a rebound in the USD/JPY exchange rate may be highlighted in the upcoming macroeconomic and foreign exchange report from the US Treasury, which could shift focus back to monetary policy trends [4].

Market Overview - US and European stock markets experienced a significant decline, marking the fourth consecutive day of downturns, with the Nasdaq and Dow Jones indices dropping over 1% [1] - The KBW Bank Index fell by 4.5% over the past five trading days, while the S&P 500 Bank Index recorded a 2.9% decline, indicating a critical support level is at risk [4] Individual Stocks - Pinduoduo saw a drop of over 7%, Nvidia decreased by 2.8%, and Amazon fell by 4.4%. In contrast, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 0.4%, with Alibaba increasing by 1.2% and Baidu by 2.6% [2] Federal Reserve Insights - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is currently at 48.9%, reflecting a decrease in market expectations for such a move [4] - Federal Reserve Governor Barkin emphasized that a consensus on December's meeting is difficult without compelling data, indicating that the labor market appears balanced but with caution regarding recent layoffs [5] Economic Conditions - Barkin noted that inflation remains above target but is unlikely to rise further, with consumer resistance and productivity improvements expected to help slow it down. He also mentioned that high housing prices reflect a supply shortage stemming from the 2007-2009 financial crisis [6] AI Developments - The US and Saudi Arabia signed a significant memorandum of understanding regarding artificial intelligence, allowing Saudi Arabia to procure a large quantity of US AI chips, which is expected to be part of a broader AI agreement [8] - The anticipated approval for the sale of thousands of semiconductor chips to Saudi AI companies marks a strategic move for major semiconductor firms like Nvidia and AMD to enter the Middle Eastern market [8]

据此，自2025年11月23日起，"工行优1"重置后的基准利率为1.58%，固定息差为1.56%，票面股息率为 3.14%，股息每年支付一次。 特此公告。 中国工商银行股份有限公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重 大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 根据《中国工商银行股份有限公司非公开发行优先股募集说明书》（简称《募集说明书》）的相关条 款，中国工商银行股份有限公司（简称本行）于2015年11月非公开发行的境内优先股（简称"工行优 1"，代码"360011"）采用分阶段调整的票面股息率定价方式，票面股息率为基准利率加固定息差，首5 年的票面股息率从发行日起保持不变，其后基准利率每5年重置一次，每个重置周期内的票面股息率保 持不变。固定息差等于本次优先股发行时票面股息率与基准利率之间的差值，其在存续期内保持不 变。"工行优1"从前次重置日起将满5年，根据《募集说明书》的相关条款，现对"工行优1"的票面股息 率进行再次重置。 重置后的票面股息率为本次境内优先股票面股息率重置日（即2025年11月18日，简称重置日）的基准利 率加固定息差。重置日的基准利率为重 ...