·Fundstrat Global Advisors研究主管Tom Lee指出，若通胀回落至2.5%左右，即便仍受关税影响，也已处 于合理区间，足以支持美联储开启降息。当前联邦基金利率目标区间为3.5%-3.75%，政策空间充足。 ·摩根士丹利：韩国增长预期上调利率或按兵不动 ·泰铢承压 BMI预测2026年再降息50基点 ·马来西亚Q4 GDP或上修至5.9% 全年增速达5% ·俄罗斯央行或暂停降息评估增税对通胀影响 【机构分析】 ·摩根大通策略师建议投资者卖出两年期美国国债，理由是美联储短期内难以大幅降息。本周五即将公 布的美国关键通胀报告将成为政策走向的重要风向标：若数据显示通胀压力明显缓解，短期美债需求或 迅速回升。 （文章来源：新华财经） ·摩根士丹利经济学家Kathleen Oh预计，韩国央行将在2月26日会议上将2026年经济增长预期从1.8%上调 至2.0%，主要受益于半导体行业超预期复苏。尽管经济回暖，但因通胀压力有限（预计维持在 2.1%），韩国央行今年料维持基准利率不变。 ·惠誉旗下BMI预测，泰铢兑美元到2026年底将走弱至约32.00。随着泰国加强黄金交易监管，金价与泰 铢的正相关性 ...

摩根大通策略师建议将做空两年期美国国债作为一项 "战术性" 交易，理由是美国经济增长前景韧性十 足，美联储难以大幅降息。 责任编辑：郭明煜 摩根大通策略师建议将做空两年期美国国债作为一项 "战术性" 交易，理由是美国经济增长前景韧性十 足，美联储难以大幅降息。 这家华尔街大行的观点发布于周五关键美国通胀报告出炉前夕。这份报告或将为美联储下一步行动提供 新线索，任何物价压力缓解的迹象，都可能刺激市场对短期、对政策敏感的国债的需求。本周美债收益 率剧烈震荡，受科技股抛售及强劲美国就业数据影响，市场也在热议特朗普提名的美联储主席候选人沃 什将如何制定政策。 目前交易员预计，美联储将在 7 月降息 25 个基点，并在年底前再降息一次。而在本周公布超预期就业 数据前，市场几乎已定价美联储会在 6 月降息。周五亚洲交易时段，两年期美债收益率小幅上行 2 个基 点至 3.47%，此前一个交易日则下跌约 5 个基点。 部分市场人士与摩根大通观点相左。 对冲基金经理大卫・艾因霍恩押注，沃什领导的美联储将比市场当前预期 "大幅更多" 降息。绿光资本 联合创始人表示，他已买入有抵押隔夜融资利率（SOFR）期货，预期若美联储更激进降 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's strategy team recommends shorting two-year U.S. Treasuries as a tactical trade due to the solid economic growth outlook, which makes it difficult for the Federal Reserve to implement significant rate cuts [1] - The report led by Jay Barry indicates that the strong fundamentals of the U.S. economy will challenge Kevin Warsh, once confirmed as Fed Chair, in influencing the Federal Open Market Committee's decisions [1] - The upcoming U.S. inflation report is expected to provide new insights into the Fed's future actions, with any signs of easing price pressures potentially boosting demand for short-term Treasuries [1] Group 2 - Traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in July and again by the end of the year, with the market previously pricing in a rate cut in June before the strong employment data was released [3] - The two-year Treasury yield slightly increased by 2 basis points to 3.47%, following a drop of about 5 basis points in the previous trading day [3] Group 3 - Hedge fund manager David Einhorn bets that under Warsh's leadership, the Fed's rate cuts will exceed current market expectations, having purchased overnight index swap futures anticipating a rebound if the Fed cuts rates significantly [4] - Morgan Stanley forecasts a strong month-on-month increase of 0.39% in the core CPI for January, excluding food and energy, driven by easing price pressures and the end of government shutdown impacts, while the average economist expectation is a 0.31% increase [4] - Morgan Stanley concludes that short-term yields are unlikely to decline significantly from current levels [4]

摩根大通的策略师建议卖出两年期美国国债，作为一种"战术性"操作，理由是美国经济增长前景依然坚 韧，这将使美联储难以大幅降息。策略师团队在报告中写道："经济基本面强劲，一旦凯文·沃什的提名 获确认并接任美联储主席，他要左右联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的决策将十分困难。"美国将于周 五公布关键通胀报告，该数据可能为美联储下一步行动提供线索。如果显示物价压力有所缓解，短期、 对政策敏感的国债需求可能上升。本周国债收益率经历波动，受到科技股抛售和强劲美国就业数据影 响，引发市场对特朗普提名的下一任美联储主席沃什将如何处理政策的讨论。 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar index has declined for the fourth consecutive trading day, marking its worst weekly performance since July, with a current weekly drop of 0.5% [1][2] - Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have increased, with traders now anticipating a cumulative reduction of 53 basis points by the end of the year, up from 46 basis points previously [1][2] - Federal Reserve officials have indicated a willingness to continue steady rate cuts, with discussions around a potential 25 basis point reduction to support the labor market [2] Group 2 - The decline in the dollar is also influenced by a significant drop in regional bank stock prices due to concerns over tightened lending standards, alongside easing political risks in Japan and France [2] - Analysts from ING highlight multiple negative factors impacting the dollar, including the Fed's dovish policy re-pricing, progress in Ukraine ceasefire talks, falling oil prices, and ongoing US-China trade tensions [2] - Current market sentiment remains fragile, with investors adopting short-term trading strategies as the dollar has retraced about one-third of its rebound from a three-year low [3]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has slightly updated its year-end yield predictions for U.S. Treasury bonds while maintaining confidence in its long-term forecast for the 10-year Treasury yield, which is expected to reach 4.10% by year-end, consistent with previous predictions [1] Group 1 - Citigroup's new baseline forecast for the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield is set at 3.50% [1] - The 5-year Treasury yield is forecasted to be 3.65% [1] - The 30-year Treasury yield is projected to reach 4.70% [1] Group 2 - The adjustments in predictions are made to align better with expectations of a steeper yield curve and lower policy rates by 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America warns that the dollar may face a "deadly combination" of rising annual inflation while the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, a scenario not seen in nearly two decades [1][3]. Group 1: Historical Context - The last occurrence of suppressed real policy rates was from the second half of 2007 to the first half of 2008, during which the dollar index fell by approximately 8% [3]. - Historical analysis indicates that the dollar's depreciation begins before the Fed's rate cuts and continues afterward, similar to the current situation [3]. Group 2: Current Economic Indicators - The Fed is currently balancing economic uncertainty surrounding President Trump's tariffs and a weak labor market outlook [3]. - Traders are pricing in an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's next meeting, despite inflation accelerating to its fastest pace since January [3]. Group 3: Inflation and Projections - Bank of America estimates that even if the overall CPI remains around 0.1% monthly by year-end, the annual rate could reach approximately 2.9%, higher than mid-2025 projections [3]. - The dollar index has declined by about 1.3% in August and approximately 8% in 2025, marking the worst annual start since 2017 [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Bank of America recently encouraged traders to buy euros against the dollar, targeting a rise of about 3% to around 1.20 by year-end [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Bank of America warns the dollar may face adverse conditions if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates amid rising annual inflation, a situation not seen in nearly two decades [1] - Bank of America foreign exchange strategist Howard Du indicates that if the Fed resumes a rate-cutting cycle, any cuts in 2025 may occur against a backdrop of rising inflation, which is historically rare [1][2] - The last time actual policy rates were suppressed was from the second half of 2007 to the first half of 2008, during which the Bloomberg Dollar Index fell by approximately 8% [2] Group 2 - Historical analysis shows that the dollar depreciation began before the Fed's rate cuts and continued afterward, similar to the current situation [2] - The Fed is currently facing economic uncertainty due to President Trump's tariff policies and a weakening labor market, with traders expecting an 85% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in September [2] - Bank of America estimates that by the end of this year, the year-on-year increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will reach about 2.9%, higher than mid-2025 levels, even if monthly CPI growth remains around 0.1% [2] Group 3 - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has declined by approximately 1.3% in August and about 8% year-to-date, marking the worst start since 2017 [3] - The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, sensitive to Fed policy, has dropped by about 50 basis points year-to-date [3] - Du and his colleagues are bullish on the euro against the dollar, targeting a rise of about 3% to 1.20 by the end of this year [2]

Group 1 - The core sentiment in the market has shifted towards risk-on, with high-risk assets rebounding significantly despite previous economic concerns highlighted by a poor employment report [1][3] - The Nasdaq 100 index recorded its largest weekly gain in over a month, while high-yield corporate bond spreads narrowed for five consecutive days, indicating a recovery in investor sentiment [1][7] - Strong corporate earnings and renewed enthusiasm for artificial intelligence are driving this risk-on sentiment, with the S&P 500 expected to see a 10% growth in earnings for the second quarter, significantly higher than prior forecasts [8] Group 2 - Despite the stock market's rally, the U.S. Treasury market remains cautious, with the 10-year Treasury yield still below levels seen before the employment report, reflecting ongoing economic concerns [3][4] - The divergence between the optimistic stock and corporate bond markets and the cautious Treasury market is becoming a focal point of interest on Wall Street [3][10] - Analysts suggest that the high valuations in the stock market, with a price-to-earnings ratio close to 23, indicate elevated risk levels, reminiscent of the tech bubble era [8][6] Group 3 - The current economic indicators, such as rising unemployment claims and increased consumer inflation expectations, contribute to the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook [9][10] - There is a belief among some analysts that the bond market's signals should be trusted over the seemingly optimistic high-yield corporate bond indicators, especially in the later stages of the economic expansion cycle [10]

Group 1 - The core observation is that the five-year U.S. Treasury bonds are currently at a historically high valuation compared to other maturities, a rare occurrence outside of the Federal Reserve setting the overnight loan rate target to 0% [1][4] - As of Wednesday, the five-year U.S. Treasury yield remains around 3.78%, which is high since early 2022, indicating a significant valuation anomaly in the bond market [1] - The valuation assessment, using a common relative value calculation method, shows that the five-year Treasury yield is overvalued, with a "butterfly spread" calculation resulting in a near -100 basis points, the lowest since early 2021 [1] Group 2 - The valuation of the five-year Treasury bonds is primarily influenced by market expectations regarding the timing and magnitude of Federal Reserve rate cuts, with the market pricing in more short-term cuts and a larger cumulative reduction since the beginning of the year [4] - The five-year Treasury has been the best-performing segment of the U.S. Treasury market this year, while persistent inflation and the trend of the U.S. budget deficit exert upward pressure on long-term Treasury yields [4] - There are indications that investors are betting on significant rate cuts by the Federal Reserve during a potential second term for Trump, reflecting a broader expectation of a more accommodative policy path after leadership changes in the Fed next year [4]