Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Lanke Lithium Industry has successfully upgraded its production capacity from 30,000 tons to 40,000 tons of lithium carbonate annually through technological improvements [1] - The company plans to continue benchmarking against industry leaders to enhance resource extraction and utilization efficiency [1] - The focus is on promoting high-quality development within the industry [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side of lithium carbonate showed that last week's production was 19,963 tons, a 2.80% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. The demand - side indicated that the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises increased by 0.72% week - on - week, while that of ternary material sample enterprises decreased by 0.65% week - on - week. - In terms of cost, the cost of purchased spodumene concentrate increased by 1.85% day - on - day, with a production loss of - 3,379 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lepidolite decreased by 0.48% day - on - day, with a production loss of - 7,008 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end was generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end was 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation. - Overall, due to the mismatch between production capacity and demand, resulting in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, the downward trend of the lithium carbonate market is difficult to change. [8][9][12] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Views - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,963 tons, a 2.80% week - on - week increase. The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 95,442 tons, a 0.72% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,529 tons, a 0.65% week - on - week decrease [8]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate was 74,770 yuan/ton, a 1.85% day - on - day increase, with a production loss of - 3,379 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lepidolite was 76,422 yuan/ton, a 0.48% day - on - day decrease, with a production loss of - 7,008 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end was generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end was 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins [9]. - **Fundamentals and Other Indicators**: The fundamentals are neutral. On September 15, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,450 yuan/ton, and the basis of the November contract was - 230 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The smelter inventory was 36,213 tons, an 8.26% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 58,279 tons, a 5.56% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average; the overall inventory was 138,512 tons, a 1.12% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. The disk is bearish, and the net short position of the main contract increased [9]. - **Expectations**: In August 2025, the production of lithium carbonate was 85,240 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 86,730 physical tons, a 1.75% month - on - month increase. The import volume in August was 17,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 19,500 physical tons, a 14.71% month - on - month increase. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [9]. 2. Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Futures Closing Price and Basis**: The futures closing prices of various contracts showed an upward trend, with increases ranging from 1.76% to 2.27%. The basis of various contracts showed a significant decrease, with decreases ranging from 104.90% to 205.48%. The number of registered warrants increased by 0.88% [15]. - **Upstream Prices**: The price of spodumene (6%) increased by 0.71%, while the prices of lepidolite concentrate, anhydrous iron phosphate, lithium hexafluorophosphate, and various lithium salts remained unchanged [15]. - **Positive and Negative Factors**: Positive factors include manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, a month - on - month decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include the continuous high supply of the ore and salt - lake ends with limited decline, and the insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [10][11]. 3. Supply - Side Data - **Lithium Ore**: The weekly and monthly operating rates of lithium ore showed different trends. The monthly production of lithium ore increased, and the monthly import volume of lithium concentrate increased significantly. The supply of lithium ore from different sources, such as spodumene, lepidolite, and salt - lake, also showed different changes [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly and monthly operating rates of lithium carbonate production from different sources, such as spodumene, lepidolite, salt - lake, and recycling materials, showed different trends. The monthly production and import volume of lithium carbonate also changed. The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate showed a certain degree of imbalance in different months [29][36]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The weekly capacity utilization rate and monthly operating rate of lithium hydroxide production showed different trends. The monthly production, import, and export volume of lithium hydroxide also changed. The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide showed a certain degree of imbalance in different months [39][42]. 4. Cost and Profit of Lithium Compounds - **Cost and Profit of Purchased Spodumene and Lepidolite Concentrates**: The cost and profit of purchased spodumene and lepidolite concentrates showed different trends over time. The production cost and profit of lithium carbonate from different raw materials, such as spodumene, lepidolite, and recycling materials, also varied [45]. - **Import Profit of Lithium Carbonate and Other Profits**: The import profit of lithium carbonate, the profit of purifying industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the profit of carbonizing lithium hydroxide into lithium carbonate, and other profits showed different trends over time [45][47]. 5. Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate from different sources, such as smelters, downstream, and others, showed different trends. The overall inventory of lithium carbonate was at a relatively high level [52]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide from different sources, such as smelters and downstream, also showed different trends [52]. 6. Demand - Side Data - **Lithium Battery**: The price, production, and export volume of lithium batteries showed different trends over time. The demand for lithium batteries from different applications, such as power and energy storage, also changed [56]. - **Ternary Precursor**: The price, cost, profit, and production of ternary precursors showed different trends over time. The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors showed a certain degree of imbalance in different months [61][64]. - **Ternary Material**: The price, cost, profit, production, and inventory of ternary materials showed different trends over time [67][69]. - **Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium**: The price, cost, profit, production, export volume, and inventory of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends over time [71][74]. - **New Energy Vehicle**: The production, sales, export volume, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends over time. The zero - batch ratio and inventory index of new energy vehicles also changed [79][83].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The market risk appetite has rebounded due to the consensus reached on the TikTok issue between China and the US, and the US dollar continues to be weak. The A-share market is oscillating and differentiating, with the index attempting to rise but encountering resistance, and the market trading volume slightly shrinking. The futures of corn have broken through the support level and declined. The terminal demand for building materials remains weak, but the steel price continues to oscillate. The supply disturbance of lithium carbonate has temporarily ended, and the market will return to the fundamental logic. [1][2][3][4][57] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump nominee for Fed governor Milan passed the Senate's procedural hurdle. Trump pressured Powell to cut interest rates significantly, which pushed gold prices up. The short - term gold price fluctuations increase, and investors should pay attention to risks. [12][13][14] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US will start imposing a 15% tariff on Japanese cars. Milan's nomination as Fed governor is likely to be confirmed. The consensus on the TikTok issue between China and the US has boosted market risk appetite, and the US dollar index is expected to weaken in the short term. [15][16][17] 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The market regulator is conducting an anti - monopoly investigation on Nvidia. The US has lowered the import tariff on Japanese cars. CoreWeave has received a $6.3 billion order from Nvidia. The AI industry's capital expenditure continues to expand, and the US stock market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger under the expectation of interest rate cuts. [19][20][22] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The economic data in August showed a decline. The A - share market is oscillating and differentiating, with high - level characteristics. It is recommended to reduce long positions to cope with the high - level oscillating pattern. [23][25][26] 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The economic data in August was worse than expected. The central bank conducted a 280 billion yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. The bond market still lacks the momentum to strengthen, and investors should remain cautious. [27][28][30] 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's soybean planting rate is 0.12%. NOPA members crushed 189.8 million bushels of soybeans in August. The good - quality rate of US soybeans decreased by 1%. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills increased. The soybean meal futures price is expected to remain oscillating, and investors should pay close attention to the results of China - US talks. [31][32][34][35] 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Floods in Malaysia's Sabah state have affected palm oil production. The export volume of palm oil from Malaysia from September 1 - 15 increased by 2.55% month - on - month. India's palm oil imports in August increased by 15.75% month - on - month. The short - term oil market is expected to remain oscillating and slightly stronger. [36][37][38] 2.3 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The price of red dates in Guangzhou Ruyifang Market has stabilized. The main contract of red date futures has declined significantly. The supply and demand of red dates have not changed significantly recently, and it is recommended to wait and see. [41][42] 2.4 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the East China market has remained stable. The supply of coking coal has returned to normal, and the demand is fair. The price of coking coal is expected to continue to oscillate and adjust in the short term. [43][44] 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The spot price of corn starch has continued to decline. The cost support is insufficient, and the profit of starch enterprises is differentiated. The medium - and long - term fundamentals are not favorable for the price difference between corn and starch. [45][46] 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - There are rumors that the import corn auction will increase the supply. The futures price of corn has declined significantly. Before the selling pressure is realized, the 11 and 01 contracts are expected to have some support at 2150, but the medium - term view is bearish. [47] 2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The infrastructure investment from January to August increased by 2.0% year - on - year. The production of crude steel in August decreased by 0.7% year - on - year. The real estate development investment from January to August decreased by 12.9% year - on - year. The steel price is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term. [48][49][52] 2.8 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The production of raw coal in August decreased by 3.2% year - on - year. The pit - mouth coal price has been rising recently, but the increase is limited due to the high inventory of power plants. The short - term coal price is expected to be slightly stronger. [54] 2.9 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The daily output of crude steel in August decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The iron ore price is expected to remain oscillating, and the impact of the meeting organized by the Steel Association is limited. [55][56] 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zijin Mining's 20,000 - ton lithium carbonate project in Argentina has been put into operation. Sigma Lithium denies the accusations of improper behavior in the Brazilian lithium project. The market will return to the fundamental logic. The price of lithium carbonate may decline after the demand inflection point. [57][58][59] 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Dianzhong Non - ferrous's electrolytic plant has produced the first batch of copper sulfate. QB and Collahuasi copper mines plan to be integrated. The copper price is expected to oscillate and be slightly stronger in the short term. [60][61][62] 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia has seized 321.07 hectares of illegal nickel mines. The short - term focus is the Fed's interest rate meeting. The price of nickel ore is expected to rise in Q4, and it is recommended to consider going long on dips. [63][64] 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME0 - 3 lead is at a deep discount. The social inventory of lead ingots has increased. The short - term demand has improved slightly, but the long - term view is slightly bullish. It is recommended to wait and see on the sidelines and consider going long on dips. [65][66] 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Peru's zinc concentrate production in July decreased by 4.2% month - on - month. The LME0 - 3 zinc is at a premium. The domestic zinc inventory has increased. It is recommended to wait and see on the sidelines and pay attention to the mid - term positive spread opportunity. [67][68][69] 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US is considering more severe sanctions against Russia. The oil price is expected to be affected by geopolitical conflicts in the short term. [70][71] 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The FOB price of Middle East frozen cargo has risen. The domestic LPG price is expected to follow the overall energy - chemical sector, and the fundamentals do not support a trend - like market. [72][73][74] 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The refinery and social inventories of asphalt have decreased. The asphalt futures price is expected to remain weakly oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see. [76][77] 2.18 Energy Chemicals (PX) - The downstream demand of polyester is weak. The PX price is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, and it is recommended to try the positive spread between November and January contracts on dips. [78][79][80] 2.19 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price has increased, and the basis has weakened. The terminal demand has not improved significantly, and the PTA price is expected to remain weakly oscillating in the short term. [81][82][83] 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotation of bottle chip factories has increased slightly. An East China polyester bottle chip plant has shut down. The demand for bottle chips is turning to the off - season, and the processing fee is difficult to improve. [85][86][87] 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has decreased. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The caustic soda spot price is expected to turn down, but the downward space is limited. [88][89][90] 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp has shown mixed trends. The pulp market is expected to oscillate and weaken due to poor fundamentals. [91][92] 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The urea production load has decreased. The domestic demand is weak, and the urea price is expected to continue to decline in the medium term. The potential rebound driver depends on the release of off - season storage demand and the improvement of market sentiment. [93][94] 2.24 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market price has oscillated and increased. The fundamentals are under short - term pressure, but the downward space is limited due to low valuation. [95] 2.25 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The port inventory of styrene has decreased. The supply has decreased, and the demand has some resilience. The short - term accumulation pressure has been relieved, but the long - term inventory contradiction needs to be resolved. [96][97] 2.26 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 174.71 million tons. The soda ash price is expected to be sold short on rallies, and investors should pay attention to supply disturbances. [98][99] 2.27 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market has changed slightly. The spot market is in the off - season, and the 01 contract premium is high. It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on glass 2601 and short on soda ash 2601. [100][101] 2.28 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The SCFIS index shows that the European line index has declined, and the US West index has increased. The freight rate may stop falling in mid - October, and investors can hold short positions in the 10 - contract and consider going long on the 12 - contract if it falls to around 1500 points. [103][104]

Group 1 - The company will closely monitor industry and market changes [1] - The company aims to enhance its risk prediction and response capabilities [1] - The company is committed to improving its operational management and profitability [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The overseas lithium market is expanding in production and sales, with Australia reducing costs to mitigate the impact of falling lithium prices on company performance [3] - South American salt lakes continue to perform well, maintaining high sales volumes [3] - North American lithium mines are releasing concentrated sales, with technological improvements enhancing utilization rates [3] - Short-term lithium prices are supported by production halts, but the resilience of overseas lithium companies is stronger than previously expected, with supply clearing challenges [3] Summary by Sections 1. Production and Sales Expansion, Price Pressure - In Q2 2025, core Australian lithium concentrate production was approximately 972,000 tons, up 7.2% year-on-year and 12.8% quarter-on-quarter [9] - Australian lithium concentrate sales were 1,028,000 tons, down 14.2% year-on-year but up 17.5% quarter-on-quarter [12] - The average price of lithium concentrate in Australia fell significantly, with Greenbushes at $725/ton, Marion at $607/ton, and Pilgangoora at $703/ton [15] 2. Australian Mines: Continuous Production and Cost Reduction - In Q2 2025, Australian lithium producers increased production, with a total of 851,000 tons produced, up 16.3% quarter-on-quarter [21] - The average price of lithium concentrate fell by 18.7% to $677.3/ton, while cash costs decreased by 7.15% [22] - Greenbushes maintained stable production with a cash cost of approximately $234/ton, despite a slight increase [23] 3. South American Salt Lakes: Strong Performance and Steady Projects - SQM achieved a record Q2 sales volume of 53,000 tons LCE, with an average selling price of $8,384/ton, down 7.87% [17] - Cauchari-Olaroz salt lake produced 8,500 tons of lithium carbonate, up 18% quarter-on-quarter [46] - ALB's sales in Q2 reached 58,000 tons LCE, reflecting a 31.8% increase [48] 4. North America: Increased Production and Cost Efficiency - La Corne project saw a 33% increase in production to 58,500 tons, with sales rising 148% to 66,980 tons [53] - The average selling price was $675/ton, down 5%, while unit operating costs decreased to $791/ton [54] 5. Lithium Imports: Significant Increase in Q2 - China's lithium concentrate imports reached 1.804 million tons, up 34.4% quarter-on-quarter, with Australia being the dominant supplier [56] - The import of lithium carbonate also increased by 33%, with Chile and Argentina being the main sources [62] 6. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the future trend for overseas mines is "increased production and reduced costs," indicating resilience among overseas lithium companies [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by CATL's meeting related to the resumption of production at the Jianxiawo lithium mine, the market sentiment is negative, and there is a renewed discussion about whether eight major mines will shut down simultaneously on September 30. Fundamentally, if they shut down, the impact on the total supply will be limited as other sources can provide supplements. Emotionally, if they shut down, it will stimulate the bullish sentiment in the market. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the end - of - month time node [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 72,450, down 400; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 70,200, down 400 [1] Lithium Ore - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 842, down 2; the price of lithium mica (Li20:1.5% - 2.0%) is 1075; the price of lithium mica (Li20:2.0% - 2.5%) is 1775; the price of amblygonite (Li20:6% - 7%) is 5770; the price of amblygonite (Li20:7% - 8%) is 6845 [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 33,375, down 95; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 146,300, up 400; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 119,350, up 600; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 123,800, up 250 [2] Price Spreads - The spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2250; the spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 1290, down 560; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 140, unchanged; the spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 340, up 100 [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 138,512, down 1580; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 36,213, down 3262; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 58,279, up 3072; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 44,020, down 1390; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 38,625, up 234 [2] Production Profits - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 73,410, and the profit is - 2019; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 76,792, and the profit is - 7378 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Tianhua New Energy plans to acquire 75% equity of Suzhou Tianhua Times New Energy Industry Investment Co., Ltd. from its actual controller Pei Zhenhua for approximately 1.254 billion yuan, aiming to integrate upstream lithium resource investments into the listed company structure and eliminate potential competition risks [1][3][4]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition involves Tianhua New Energy purchasing 75% of Suzhou Tianhua Times, which was previously held by Pei Zhenhua, for about 1.254 billion yuan [1][4]. - Prior to this transaction, Suzhou Tianhua Times had a shareholding structure where Pei Zhenhua held 75% (12 billion yuan) and Ningde Times held 25% (4 billion yuan) [3]. - After the acquisition, Tianhua New Energy will become the largest shareholder of Suzhou Tianhua Times [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Tianhua New Energy has experienced significant revenue declines, with revenues of 170.3 billion yuan in 2022, 104.7 billion yuan in 2023, and projected 66 billion yuan in 2024 [5]. - Net profits have also dropped sharply, from 8.8 billion yuan in 2022 to a projected 1.023 billion yuan in 2024, with a loss of 173 million yuan reported in the first half of 2025 [5]. - As of mid-2023, Tianhua New Energy had approximately 2.572 billion yuan in cash [3]. Group 3: Business Strategy - The acquisition is part of Tianhua New Energy's strategy to enhance its upstream lithium resource self-sufficiency, as it has been actively extending its operations into upstream sectors [5]. - The company has received approval from the Australian government to subscribe to shares of Liontown Resources, a leading lithium producer, indicating its commitment to expanding its resource base [5]. - Additionally, Tianhua New Energy's subsidiary has obtained mining rights for lithium-containing ceramic soil in Jiangxi Province, further supporting its resource development efforts [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The supply of lithium carbonate remains at a high level, the expectation of supply contraction weakens, downstream actively stocks up, inventory flows smoothly from top to bottom, and the inventory pressure of smelters is not significant. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the progress of mines in Jiangxi and the downstream stockpiling situation [5][88]. 3. Summary by Directory 1.1 Carbonate Lithium Market Review - Last week, lithium carbonate first rose and then fell, with a weekly decline of 4.02%. The trading volume reached 2.96 million lots (-160,000), and the open interest reached 309,400 lots (-54,600) [7]. - The basis premium is 1,290 yuan/ton [8]. 1.2 Supply Side - Lithium Ore - In August, China's lithium spodumene production was 6,670 tons of LCE, a month-on-month increase of 2.6%; lithium mica production was 8,980 tons of LCE, a month-on-month decrease of 44.2% [12]. - In July, the import volume of lithium concentrate rebounded to 576,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 34.7% and a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [16]. - In July, the volume of lithium spodumene shipped from Port Hedland to China decreased to 88,800 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.1% [20]. - Lithium Battery Recycling - In September, the expected recycling volume of waste lithium batteries is 27,623 tons, a month-on-month increase of 6.2% and a year-on-year increase of 32.9% [23]. - Carbonate Lithium - Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 19,963 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.8%. - In July, the import volume of lithium carbonate decreased to 13,845 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 21.8% and a year-on-year decrease of 42.7%. - In August, the volume of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 12,982 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.8% and a year-on-year increase of 7.0% [28][30]. - Lithium Hydroxide - In September, the operating rate of lithium hydroxide was 37%, and the production was 24,470 tons, a month-on-month increase of 12% and a year-on-year decrease of 21%. - In July, the export volume of lithium hydroxide was 1,248 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 80.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 86.3% [37]. 1.3 Downstream Demand - Lithium Iron Phosphate - Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 77,513 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.3%. - In August, the operating rate of iron phosphate was 61%, and the production was 2,647,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 5% and a year-on-year increase of 59% [40]. - Ternary Materials - Last week, the production of ternary materials was 16,491 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%. - In July, the import volume increased and the export volume decreased [45]. - Ternary Precursors - In September, the operating rate of ternary precursors was 43%, and the production was 81,490 tons, a month-on-month increase of 12.9% and a year-on-year increase of 3.9%. - In July, the export volume increased [50]. - Lithium Manganate and Lithium Cobaltate - In September, the operating rate of lithium manganate was 33%, and the production was 11,887 tons, a month-on-month increase of 6% and a year-on-year decrease of 5%. - In September, the operating rate of lithium cobaltate was 67%, and the production was 12,530 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2% and a year-on-year increase of 42% [51]. - Electrolyte - In September, the production of electrolyte was 191,480 tons, a month-on-month increase of 7% and a year-on-year increase of 35.0%. - In July, the export volume of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased [59]. 1.4 Terminal Demand - Power Batteries - In August, the production of power batteries was 139.6 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 4.3% and a year-on-year increase of 37.8%. - In August, the loading volume of power batteries was 62.5 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 11.8% and a year-on-year increase of 32.4% [62]. - New Energy Vehicles - In August, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.391 million, a month-on-month increase of 11.9% and a year-on-year increase of 27.4%. - In August, the sales of new energy vehicles were 1.395 million, a month-on-month increase of 10.5% and a year-on-year increase of 26.8% [65]. - Energy Storage - In September, the production of energy storage batteries was 50.67 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 1.6% and a year-on-year increase of 42.3%. - In July, the winning bid power scale of energy storage was 5.83 GW, a month-on-month increase of 27.6% and a year-on-year increase of 44.7%; the winning bid capacity scale was 16.7 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 37.9% and a year-on-year increase of 60.1% [70]. - Consumer Electronics - In August, the production of smartphones in China was 100.4 million, a month-on-month increase of 6.4% and a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. - In August, the production of microcomputers in China was 27.69 million, a month-on-month increase of 8.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.3% [73]. 1.5 Cost - The price of lithium ore has declined. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate has dropped by $29/ton, and the price of lithium mica has dropped by 90 yuan/ton [78]. 1.6 Inventory - The total inventory decreased by 1,580 tons. Structurally, the smelter's inventory decreased by 3,262 tons, the downstream's inventory increased by 3,072 tons, and other inventories decreased by 1,390 tons [83]. - Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate increased by 686 tons, and the inventory of ternary materials decreased by 115 tons [84]. 1.7 Market Outlook - Strategy: Sell short at high prices or buy put options after the volatility decreases. - Operating range: 65,000 - 77,000. - Overall, the supply remains at a high level, the expectation of supply contraction weakens, downstream actively stocks up, inventory flows smoothly from top to bottom, and the inventory pressure of smelters is not significant. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the progress of mines in Jiangxi and the downstream stockpiling situation [88].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Nickel**: The contradictions in the smelting end are not prominent, and attention should be paid to the news - related risks at the mine end [2][4]. - **Stainless Steel**: There is a game between short - and long - term logics, and steel prices may fluctuate [2][4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply and demand are both increasing, and the market is under pressure [2][11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industry inventory is accumulating, and the strategy is to short at high prices [2][15]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to market information changes [2][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,980 yuan, and the stainless - steel main contract was 12,950 yuan. There were also data on trading volume, spot prices, and spreads [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Many events occurred in Indonesia, including the trial production of the CNI nickel - iron project, environmental violations in the IMIP, plans to shorten mining quota periods, production suspensions in some nickel - iron smelting industrial parks, and the takeover of a nickel - mine area by the forestry working group [4][5][7][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral view [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: Data on futures contracts (such as 2511 and 2601 contracts), spot prices, basis, and raw - material prices are provided [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased, and Zijin Mining's lithium - salt project was put into production [13][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [14]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: Information on futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, basis, prices, profits, inventories, and raw - material costs of industrial silicon and polysilicon is presented [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The three ministries and commissions issued the "National Industrial Resources Comprehensive Utilization Advanced and Applicable Process Technology Equipment Catalog (2025 Edition)" [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is - 1 (slightly bearish), and that of polysilicon is 0 (neutral) [17].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that domestic lithium carbonate demand is projected to reach 102,000 tons by August 2025, marking a month-on-month increase of 7.49%, setting a new historical high [1] - Current lithium carbonate inventory remains above 140,000 tons, but the available days have been decreasing over the past six months, leading to increased price elasticity [1] - Specific demand drivers include a month-on-month increase of 8% in lithium carbonate demand from lithium iron phosphate, significant growth in energy storage demand estimated at 40%-50% for 2026, and a 12% increase in demand from ternary materials due to downstream replenishment [1] Group 2 - The market atmosphere indicates a rapid increase in warehouse receipts, with the virtual-to-real ratio returning to a low level, suggesting significant resistance to upward price breakthroughs unless explosive news arises [3] - Potential short-selling opportunities include the production ramp-up of major salt lake projects and the possibility that reductions in Jiangxi may not meet expectations, likely leading to an increase in domestic lithium carbonate production [3] - Overall, before the National Day holiday, the market is expected to continue a tug-of-war between strong realities and weak expectations, with lithium carbonate prices fluctuating around 70,000 yuan [5]