1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The EU plans to adjust high tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and replace them with a minimum price mechanism, signaling a缓和 in trade tensions. The Minister of Industry and Information Technology, Li Lecheng, aims to drive new breakthroughs in future manufacturing, information, and materials. In the long - term, the transmission process needs to be observed. [2] - In the short term, it is expected that Shanghai nickel will have a wide - range adjustment, and attention should be paid to the support of MA10. [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 138,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5,750 yuan; the 02 - 03 month contract spread of Shanghai nickel is - 190 yuan/ton, unchanged. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 18,075 US dollars/ton, an increase of 375 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai nickel is 119,485 lots, a decrease of 4,663 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 69,516 lots, an increase of 12,055 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 284,562 tons, a decrease of 228 tons. The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 46,650 tons, an increase of 1,106 tons. The warrant quantity of Shanghai nickel is 39,436 tons, a decrease of 234 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 145,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,650 yuan; the spot average price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 145,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,550 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warrant) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 31,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,400 yuan. The basis of the NI main contract is 6,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 4,100 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 200.47 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.09 US dollars. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 333.95 million tons, a decrease of 134.33 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,319.77 million tons, a decrease of 12.26 million tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 72.18 US dollars/ton, an increase of 14.84 US dollars. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel is 22,100 metal tons, a decrease of 800 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 12,840.49 tons, an increase of 2,900.84 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 895,400 tons, a decrease of 9,700 tons. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7617 million tons, a decrease of 38,300 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 540,500 tons, a decrease of 13,300 tons. [2] 3.6 Industry News - The EU plans to adjust high tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and replace them with a minimum price mechanism, releasing a signal of easing trade tensions. The Minister of Industry and Information Technology, Li Lecheng, said that efforts will be made to drive new breakthroughs in future manufacturing, future information, and future materials, focusing on fields such as quantum technology, humanoid robots, brain - computer interfaces, deep - sea polar regions, and 6G. [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - On the macro - level, the Minister of Industry and Information Technology promotes new breakthroughs in future manufacturing, information, and materials. On the fundamental level, the import volume of nickel ore is in a downward trend as the Philippines enters the rainy season, and the planned significant reduction of the RKAB quota in Indonesia next year causes concerns about raw material supply. In the smelting end, the output of Indonesian ferronickel remains high, and the quantity flowing back to China is expected to increase; the domestic refined nickel production capacity is large, and with the recent rise in nickel prices and profit repair, the output of refined nickel is expected to rise again. On the demand side, the cost of stainless - steel ferronickel has decreased, the profit of steel mills has improved, and the planned production volume is expected to be high; the production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to climb, and ternary batteries contribute a small incremental demand. The domestic nickel inventory is in an increasing trend, and the market mainly buys on dips, with a high spot premium; the growth of overseas LME inventory has slowed down. Technically, the position has decreased and the price has fallen, with a large divergence between long and short positions. [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown a strong upward trend since the beginning of 2026, driven by multiple factors including the technology cycle, policy benefits, economic recovery, and the return of overseas capital [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 12, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index has achieved a "seventeen consecutive days" rise, with significant increases in trading volume and active capital inflow [1][3]. - The performance of various sectors shows that cyclical stocks, technology stocks, and military industry stocks have led the gains, while financial and consumer stocks have underperformed [1][3]. Group 2: Driving Factors - The dual momentum from technology and cyclical sectors has significantly enhanced risk appetite among investors, with the digital economy, particularly AI and semiconductors, leading the charge [3][4]. - The release of concentrated economic policies since the beginning of 2026, including a 625 billion yuan special bond for consumer upgrades, has contributed to the market's positive outlook [4][5]. - Economic recovery is gaining momentum, with manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs returning above the growth line, indicating a shift towards quality and efficiency in corporate operations [5][6]. Group 3: Capital Flows - The appreciation of the RMB against the USD has attracted overseas capital back to China, as global investors seek stable assets amid geopolitical uncertainties [6][7]. - Data indicates an increase in holdings of Chinese assets by global and Asian funds compared to the end of 2024, supported by targeted policies and growth in AI-related profits [7]. Group 4: Futures Market Dynamics - The narrowing of the basis in stock index futures indicates strong bullish sentiment among investors, with significant shifts in the annualized basis rates for various contracts [8][9]. - Recent fluctuations in futures contracts suggest a potential adjustment phase, with the cost of rolling over contracts decreasing, reflecting a more favorable position for investors [10][11]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The market is transitioning from valuation-driven growth to profit-driven performance, with individual stock performance increasingly tied to fundamental improvements and rising economic conditions [11][12]. - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trajectory, supported by ongoing policy effects, enhanced economic recovery, and the sustained influx of overseas capital [12].

Market Overview - The A-share market saw a majority of indices decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.64% closing at 4138.76 points, the Shenzhen Component down by 1.37% at 14169.40 points, the Sci-Tech 50 down by 2.80% at 1469.57 points, and the ChiNext Index down by 1.96% at 3321.89 points [1] - Overall, there were 1619 stocks that rose and 3726 stocks that fell, with a total market turnover of 36510 billion yuan, an increase of 496 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the leading sectors included Oil & Petrochemicals, Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology, Nonferrous Metals, Media, and Banking, with respective gains of 1.62%, 1.21%, 0.91%, 0.67%, and 0.65% [1] - Conversely, sectors such as Defense & Military, Electronics, Telecommunications, Computers, and Building Materials experienced declines, with losses of 5.50%, 3.30%, 2.88%, 1.92%, and 1.87% respectively [1] Sector Highlights - The top-performing concept sectors today included CRO, Selected Medical Services, Weight Loss Drugs, SPD, Lithium Extraction from Salt Lakes, Genetic Testing, Lithium Mining, Pharmaceutical Digitalization, Selected Insurance, Stem Cells, Synthetic Biology, Influenza, Gold & Jewelry, and Biotechnology [2]

1月13日铜期货市场动态：今日沪期铜走势震荡，盘面涨跌博弈，尾盘最终阴线结束今日交易。主力月 2603合约开盘价报104500元/吨，最高104990元/吨，最低101970元/吨，昨结102980元/吨，今日收盘价 报102480元/吨，跌500元，跌幅0.49%。沪铜主力2603合约全天成交量266762手增加57020手，持仓量 220162手增加37474手。亚盘时段，伦铜冲高遇阻，北京时间14：53最新报价13074.5美元/吨，跌97.5美 元/吨，跌幅0.73%。 长江铜业网铜价格统计：今日国内现货铜价格下跌，长江现货1#铜价报102380元/吨，跌900元，升水 110-升水150，涨20元；长江综合1#铜价报102315元/吨，跌890元，升水10-升水120，涨30元；广东现货 1#铜价报102260元/吨，跌900元，贴水90-升水110，涨20元；上海地区1#铜价报102300元/吨，跌870元 元，升水10-升水90，涨50元。 长江铜市分析： 基本面方面，瑞银分析指出，受新项目审批受限、生产中断及产量下调等因素影响，2025年矿铜产量增 长极低，2026年增长也有限。目前国内铜精矿 ...

Core Viewpoint - As of the end of 2025, the northbound capital has shifted its focus towards hard technology and non-ferrous metals industries, with ten industries having a market value of over 100 billion yuan in holdings [1][7]. Industry Summary - The market value of holdings in the power equipment industry reached 449.5 billion yuan, while the electronics industry had 387 billion yuan, and the non-ferrous metals industry saw a significant increase to 185.6 billion yuan, marking a growth of over 170% compared to the end of 2024 [3][7]. - The banking sector's holdings increased by 56.45% to 217.6 billion yuan, while the machinery equipment sector saw a rise to 98.6 billion yuan [3][4]. - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 35.52%, with holdings dropping to 138.8 billion yuan [4]. Top Holdings Summary - The top holding, Ningde Times, had a market value of 254.3 billion yuan, representing a 76.57% increase in holdings [5][8]. - Midea Group and Kweichow Moutai ranked second and third, with holdings of 77 billion yuan and 75.8 billion yuan, respectively, both experiencing reductions of 7.99% and 35.82% [5][8]. - Other notable top holdings included China Merchants Bank at 51.4 billion yuan, Zijin Mining at 47.1 billion yuan, and Northern Huachuang at 45.7 billion yuan, with the latter seeing a remarkable increase of 267.34% [5][8].

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai has released a three-year action plan to support the transformation and upgrading of advanced manufacturing, aiming to add 100 enterprises with an annual output value exceeding 1 billion yuan by 2028, totaling over 600, and to drive the addition of 500 new large-scale industrial enterprises in the supply chain, while significantly increasing the proportion of R&D expenses in revenue [2][3][7]. Group 1: Main Goals - By 2028, the plan aims to add 100 manufacturing enterprises with an annual output value exceeding 1 billion yuan, totaling over 600, and to drive the addition of 500 new large-scale industrial enterprises in the supply chain [7]. Group 2: Implementation Actions - **Optimizing Traditional Advantage Industries**: The plan encourages petrochemical companies to reduce oil dependency and develop new functional materials, while supporting steel and non-ferrous metal companies to strengthen specialty steel and expand lightweight alloys [8]. - **Accelerating Leading Industry Strategies**: Support for integrated circuit companies to focus on equipment, advanced processes, and materials, aiming to cultivate internationally competitive leading enterprises [8]. - **Promoting Key and Emerging Industries**: The plan emphasizes the development of new-generation electronic information, smart connected vehicles, high-end equipment, and green low-carbon industries [9]. Group 3: Innovation and Technology - **Releasing Innovation Vitality**: The plan supports enterprises to increase basic research investment, providing financial subsidies based on the amount of R&D expenditure [9]. - **Accelerating Core Technology Breakthroughs**: Focus on supporting enterprises in laser manufacturing, quantum technology, and new functional materials to conduct foundational research [10]. Group 4: Quality and Efficiency Enhancement - **Promoting Technological Transformation**: Support for enterprises to upgrade production, R&D, and design processes, with financial support for fixed asset investment loans [10]. - **Deepening Digital Transformation**: The plan includes initiatives for AI integration in manufacturing, aiming for large enterprises to achieve full digital application coverage by 2027 [10]. Group 5: Resource and Support Actions - **Strengthening Talent Development**: The plan supports enterprises in attracting high-level talent, providing priority recommendations for national and local talent cultivation programs [11]. - **Enhancing Financial Support**: Focus on promoting low-interest, high-amount, and long-term loan products for manufacturing enterprises, with interest subsidies for key component and raw material loans [12]. - **Expanding Logistics Support**: The plan aims to build industrial logistics and warehousing facilities to integrate logistics with manufacturing [12].

Core Viewpoint - As of the end of 2025, the northbound capital has shifted its focus towards hard technology and non-ferrous metals industries, with ten industries having a market value of over 100 billion yuan [1][7]. Industry Summary - The top three industries by market value held by northbound capital at the end of 2025 are: - Power Equipment: 449.5 billion yuan, a 60.04% increase from 2024 [3][7]. - Electronics: 387 billion yuan, an 85.02% increase from 2024 [3][7]. - Non-ferrous Metals: 185.6 billion yuan, a 173.04% increase from 2024 [3][7]. - Other industries with significant holdings include: - Banking: 217.6 billion yuan, a 56.45% increase [3]. - Machinery: 98.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.49% [3]. - Pharmaceuticals: 148.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 35.52% [4]. Major Holdings - The top ten stocks held by northbound capital at the end of 2025 include: - Ningde Times: 254.3 billion yuan, a 76.57% increase [5][8]. - Midea Group: 77 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.99% [5][8]. - Kweichow Moutai: 75.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 35.82% [5][8]. - China Merchants Bank: 51.4 billion yuan, a 2.92% increase [5][8]. - Zijin Mining: 47.1 billion yuan, a 120.18% increase [5][8]. - Notable changes in the top ten include: - Northern Huachuang, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Lixun Precision entering the list, while Longjiang Power, Mindray Medical, and BYD dropped out [8].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a strong upward trend driven by leveraged funds and retail investors, with significant contributions from speculative and foreign capital, leading to a notable increase in market risk appetite [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - During the first week of January 2026, the A-share market saw a substantial increase, with the Wind All A Index rising by 5.1% and the average daily trading volume surging over 700 billion yuan to 2.85 trillion yuan [1]. - The financing balance reached a historical high of 2.61 trillion yuan, accounting for 2.53% of the total A-share market capitalization, placing it in the 96th percentile historically since 2021 [3][10]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Retail investor sentiment has significantly improved, with net inflows of 155.7 billion yuan, marking the second-highest level in the past year [3][15]. - The activity of speculative funds has also increased, with an average daily trading volume of 31.4 billion yuan on the Long Hu List, reaching a six-month peak [3][17]. Group 3: Foreign Investment - Foreign capital has shown a renewed interest, with the average daily trading volume of the Stock Connect increasing by 98.6 billion yuan to 327.2 billion yuan, representing an increase of 0.73 percentage points in trading volume share [3][19]. - Passive foreign capital has turned into a slight net inflow of 6.7 million dollars, indicating a stronger attraction towards technology sectors [3][23]. Group 4: Macro Liquidity - The central bank's significant net withdrawal of 166 billion yuan has not tightened market liquidity, as interbank market interest rates have declined, maintaining a loose monetary environment [6][8]. - The RMB exchange rate appreciated to 6.98 against the US dollar, with the 2-year and 10-year China-US interest rate differentials narrowing [9]. Group 5: ETF Market Dynamics - The ETF market has shown structural divergence, with a slight net outflow of 390 million yuan from stock ETFs, while industry-themed ETFs attracted a net inflow of 13.6 billion yuan [25][26]. - Broad-based ETFs faced significant net outflows, particularly from the CSI A500-related ETFs, which saw a redemption of 13.1 billion yuan [25].

Market Overview - In 2025, the A-share market experienced a comprehensive recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3968.84 points, the ChiNext Index rising by 49.57%, the CSI 300 increasing by 17.66%, the CSI 500 up by 30.39%, and the STAR 50 gaining 35.92% [1] - The most notable performance was in precious metals, with gold and silver entering a historic bull market, leading all asset classes. London spot gold rose by 64.56% throughout the year, nearing $4600 per ounce, while London spot silver surged by 147.79% [1] Precious Metals and Base Metals Cycle - Historical patterns indicate that after gold and silver, base metals like copper and aluminum may enter a super cycle. The sequence of price increases typically follows: gold, silver, copper, aluminum, oil, gas, and agricultural products [2] - By the end of 2025, gold had increased over 60%, closing around $4320 per ounce, while silver prices saw significant increases, particularly in December, breaking through key price levels [2] - International investment banks are bullish on copper and aluminum for 2026, citing a lack of large mining projects coming online and the decline of older mines. Demand is also expected to rise from sectors like AI infrastructure, electric vehicles, and the photovoltaic industry [2] Investment Products in Base Metals - Investment products related to base metals can be categorized into two main types: those that include stocks or ETFs related to base metals and public mutual funds focused on base metals. Unlike precious metals, these products do not directly invest in physical metals [3] - Base metal index funds can be further divided into those tracking stock indices and those tracking futures indices. Examples include the "Wanjia CSI Industrial Base Metals Theme ETF" and "Guotai CSI Base Metals Theme ETF," which invest in stocks of companies related to gold, copper, aluminum, lithium, cobalt, and rare metals [4] Performance of Base Metal Funds - Recent performance data for base metal ETFs shows significant gains, with the "Wanjia CSI Industrial Base Metals Theme ETF" up by 98.20%, "Guotai CSI Base Metals Theme ETF" up by 82.96%, and others also showing strong returns [6] - Some bank wealth management products also allocate a portion of their holdings to precious and base metals to enhance returns, although these products carry higher risks compared to pure bond products [8] Practical Investment Tips - Investors are advised to consider their risk tolerance when investing in precious and base metals. For those with a preference for stability, bank wealth management products may be suitable, while those with higher risk tolerance might explore mining stocks and related funds [9] - In the context of base metals, investors should be cautious about chasing high prices and consider the volatility of silver, platinum, and palladium. It is recommended to select products that hold ETFs related to gold and base metals for more stable investment [10]

Core Viewpoint - The data indicates significant capital inflows into various stocks, highlighting investor interest in specific sectors such as power equipment, communication devices, and gaming [1][2][3] Group 1: Stock Performance and Capital Inflows - TBEA (特变电工) saw a capital inflow of 1.846 billion, with a price increase of 10.01% [2] - Haige Communication (海格通信) experienced a capital inflow of 1.661 billion, with a price increase of 10% [2] - ZQ Game (掌趣科技) had a capital inflow of 0.791 billion, with a notable price increase of 14.91% [2] - Yonyou Network (用友网络) attracted 0.768 billion in capital, with a price increase of 7.87% [2] - Shanghai Construction (上海建工) received 0.603 billion, with a price increase of 10.14% [2] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The power equipment sector, represented by TBEA, shows strong investor confidence with significant capital inflows [2] - The communication device sector, including Haige Communication and Lian Te Technology (联特科技), also reflects positive investor sentiment [2][3] - The gaming industry, represented by ZQ Game and Century Huaman (世纪华通), demonstrates robust growth potential with substantial capital inflows [2][3] - The education sector, represented by Zhonggong Education (中公教育), shows a healthy capital inflow of 0.508 billion, indicating investor interest [2] - The energy metal sector, represented by Ganfeng Lithium (赣锋锂业) and Tianqi Lithium (天齐锂业), continues to attract investment, reflecting ongoing demand in the market [2][3]