阿根廷取消大豆出口税，中国买家迅速出手，美国豆农雪上加霜 当美国豆农正为大豆滞销发愁时，阿根廷却抓住机会，趁机抢占市场。9月22日，阿根廷政府突然宣布一项重要政策：暂时取消谷物等农产品的出口税。这 一决定让全球大豆市场为之一振。 作为全球主要大豆生产国之一，阿根廷过去一直对大豆征收高达26%的出口税，导致许多国际买家望而却步。如今，这一税率的取消无疑降低了交易成本， 让阿根廷大豆在国际市场上更具竞争力。对于中国这样的大豆需求大国来说，这无疑是一个难得的采购良机。 值得注意的是，大豆出口下滑的影响远不止于农民群体。从种子、化肥、农机，到仓储、运输、港口、金融等环节，整个产业链都受到冲击。美国大豆产业 支撑着超过4000亿美元的经济规模，如今出口萎缩，卡车司机、物流公司、码头工人、金融机构等纷纷受到波及。美国《Freight Waves》网站报道称，大豆 危机正迅速蔓延至运输和港口行业，大量就业岗位岌岌可危。 问题的根源并非中国，而在于特朗普政府的贸易政策。当初，美国试图通过加征关税施压中国，但中国并未屈服，反而转向南美市场，确保粮食供应稳定。 结果，美国农民成了贸易战的最大受害者。 如今，美国农民已清醒认识到， ...

Core Insights - The U.S. soybean farmers are facing an unprecedented crisis during the harvest season, with zero orders from China, which traditionally accounts for a significant portion of their sales [4][10] - The U.S. soybean exports to China are projected to be $12.8 billion for 2024, but no orders have been placed this year, indicating a severe market disruption [4][12] - The price of U.S. soybeans has become uncompetitive due to tariffs, being 20% higher than South American counterparts, further exacerbating the situation for farmers [6][10] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Historically, about 25% of U.S. soybeans were exported to China, but this year, the figure has dropped to zero, significantly impacting key soybean-producing states [4][10] - China has shifted its soybean imports to Brazil, with August imports reaching 12.279 million tons, marking a record high for four consecutive months [8][10] - By 2025, China's soybean imports from the U.S. are expected to drop to 22.13 million tons, representing only 21% of total imports, as they have signed significant procurement agreements with Brazil and Argentina [8][10] Group 2: Financial Implications - The current market conditions have led to a drastic drop in soybean prices, with spot prices falling to $8.83 per bushel, down from $14.8 three years ago, resulting in financial losses for farmers [10][12] - The number of farm bankruptcies has increased by 55% over the past year, indicating severe financial distress among farmers [10][12] - The U.S. soybean association is pressuring the government for immediate action to mitigate the financial strain on farmers, as delays in reaching agreements with China could lead to further losses [12][16] Group 3: Policy and Trade Relations - The U.S. government has extended the trade truce with China, but has not addressed the issue of tariffs, which continues to hinder U.S. soybean competitiveness [12][16] - Argentina has eliminated export tariffs on soybeans, which could lead to a significant increase in their market share in China, further isolating U.S. soybeans [12][16] - China's strategy is shifting towards a more diversified supply chain, with soybean dependency dropping below 15%, indicating a long-term trend away from U.S. imports [14][16]

Group 1 - The core issue facing U.S. soybean farmers is the lack of orders from China, with the expected export value for 2024 being $12.8 billion, yet no orders have been received this year [2] - Typically, by this time of year, about one-third of the annual soybean sales to China would be completed, representing 8% to 9% of total U.S. soybean production, but this year the actual sales volume is zero [2] - The increase in tariffs has severely impacted U.S.-China trade, raising the landed cost of U.S. soybeans compared to Brazilian soybeans by 531 yuan per ton, resulting in a loss of competitiveness for U.S. soybeans [2] Group 2 - The U.S. agricultural sector is facing significant challenges, including environmental changes and market fluctuations, with a potential agricultural crisis looming by 2025 if the current trend continues [3] - In 2022, the U.S. exported approximately $20 billion worth of agricultural products to China, half of which was soybeans, highlighting the importance of this market for U.S. farmers [3] - The decline in soybean exports has led to many farms going bankrupt, with soybean futures prices hitting a ten-year low, and many farmers unable to cover their costs [3] Group 3 - The U.S. is currently facing a debt of $37 trillion, which limits its ability to address the wave of bankruptcies among farms and related businesses, reminiscent of the economic depression in the 1930s [4] - Farmers are in a situation where they would rather waste their produce than sell it at a loss, similar to historical precedents during economic downturns [4] Group 4 - Brazil has increasingly become the largest supplier of soybeans to China, taking the majority of soybean import orders, while Argentina is also expanding its market share [5] - The U.S. is losing its dominant position in the global soybean market due to price competition and structural adjustments in the supply chain [5] - The reduction in U.S. soybean imports by China has led to increased anxiety and despair among U.S. soybean farmers [5]

Core Insights - Trump's tariff policy is causing significant distress for American farmers, particularly in the soybean sector, as China, their largest customer, has not placed orders for several months [1] - The U.S. soybean market share in China is rapidly declining, with Brazilian suppliers taking over, leading to predictions that U.S. soybean market share could potentially reach zero [1][4] - The U.S. government has proposed a long-term subsidy plan of $60 billion over ten years, but immediate relief is lacking, with the first payments not expected until next fall [1][6] Group 1 - The American soybean industry, which previously held a significant market share in China, is now facing severe competition from Brazil due to the ongoing trade war initiated by the Trump administration [1][4] - The accumulation of U.S. soybean inventory is becoming a critical issue, with reports of spoilage in some warehouses, indicating a dire need for a resolution to the trade dispute [1][6] - Trump's recent comments suggesting that a resumption of soybean purchases by China would benefit trade negotiations reveal a disconnect between the administration's stance and the realities faced by American farmers [1][6] Group 2 - China's shift away from U.S. soybeans is part of a broader strategy to diversify its supply chain, countering the assumption that it is heavily reliant on American agricultural products [6] - The Brazilian government is capitalizing on the opportunity created by the U.S.-China trade tensions, quickly filling the market void left by American suppliers [4][6] - The ongoing trade losses for the U.S. raise questions about the effectiveness of the Trump administration's strategies in addressing the agricultural sector's challenges [6]

Core Insights - The U.S. soybean industry is facing severe challenges due to the Trump administration's tariff policies, which have resulted in the loss of the Chinese market, a critical buyer for U.S. soybeans [2] - The American Soybean Association has reported that since the fall harvest began, China, the largest buyer, has not placed any orders, highlighting the urgency of the situation for U.S. farmers [2] - The agricultural sector is experiencing financial strain due to rising production costs and declining soybean prices, which have dropped approximately 40% from the historical highs of 2022 [3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts a record soybean production of 4.3 billion bushels this year, but prices are significantly lower compared to previous years [3] - The soybean supply chain, which includes fertilizers, machinery, storage, transportation, finance, and ports, is at risk, threatening related employment [3] - Agricultural loan rates in the U.S. are at a ten-year high, with agricultural debt expected to rise to nearly $562 billion by 2025, increasing the risk of defaults in the Midwest [3] Group 2: Trade Relations - China accounts for approximately 60% of global soybean imports, and prior to 2018, the U.S. exported an average of 28% of its soybeans to China [4] - In the 2023-2024 fiscal year, U.S. soybean exports to China are projected to be nearly 25 million tons, significantly higher than the 4.9 million tons exported to the European Union [4] - Brazil has overtaken the U.S. as China's largest soybean supplier, with Brazilian exports to China increasing by over 280% since 2010 [4] Group 3: Political Implications - Farmers in agricultural states that previously supported Trump are now expressing dissatisfaction due to the financial impact of tariffs, which could influence the upcoming 2026 midterm elections [3] - The American Soybean Association has consistently urged the government to prioritize soybean issues in trade negotiations with China to prevent further market share loss to countries like Brazil [2]

（羊城晚报•羊城派综合中国基金报、环球时报） 据美国农业部海外农业局统计，2024年美国对华大豆出口额达128亿美元。但今年，农户们还未接到来 自中国市场的订单。伊利诺伊州、艾奥瓦州、明尼苏达州和印第安纳州作为大豆核心产区，所受影响尤 为深重，这些州的大豆产量约占全美总产量的一半。 据报道，通常到本季时，美国对华大豆年销量中已有约1/3完成交易。这意味着，当前本应有占美国大 豆总产量8%至9%的大豆销往中国，但实际成交量为零。 美国豆农正感受着特朗普政府关税政策带来的痛苦。近日，美国广播公司播出了一段对美国大豆协会主 席拉格兰的采访。画面中，拉格兰坐在拖拉机上，再次提到目前美国大豆正值收获季，而中国的订购量 至今为"零"。 拉格兰向美国总统特朗普发出紧急呼吁："我们需要的是市场和机遇，中国市场对我们的生计至关重 要。"拉格兰此前接受美国《财富》杂志采访时就警告称，美国大豆迎来收获季，但最大买家却未下任 何订单，豆农面临的形势"极其严峻"。 拉格兰的发言代表了绝大多数美国豆农的心声。"我躬耕一生，今年是记忆中最黑暗的一年。"44岁的豆 农唐纳在接受采访时感叹道。唐纳一家的农场坐落于阿肯色州东北部，种植棉花、玉米 ...

更离谱的是，美国农民首当其冲。中国反制关税一上来，美国大豆出口直接被砍掉一大块，2019年美国不得不拿出280亿美元补贴农民。这钱哪来的？税 收。说白了还是美国老百姓埋单。 企业也没好到哪去。根据美小企业联合会的调研，到2025年，美国中小企业因为关税，每家每年平均多花12万美元成本。你想象一下，一个本来利润就不厚 的中小厂商，多背这么个负担，怎么活？ 再说科技公司。2020年开始美国限制高端芯片卖中国，表面上看是要卡中国脖子。结果中国市场占了英伟达和高通接近一半收入，一刀切下去，他们的财报 直接掉头。高通2023年在中国的收入比上一年少了将近20%，股价也跟着跌。研发经费一紧，反过来影响他们自己在全球的竞争力。 你有没有发现，美国这几年跟中国硬刚，最后受伤的好像都是自己人？ 我这两天翻了下数据，2018年特朗普发动贸易战的时候，对中国商品加税超过3000亿美元。他当时说要减少逆差，结果到2024年，美国对华逆差依然有3500 亿美元。美商务部的数据摆在那，这笔账怎么算都不像是赢。 所以特朗普2025年再上台，看财政部报告的时候才皱眉。因为他终于发现，这不是在维护超级大国的地位，而是在消耗超级大国的底子。 美 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. soybean industry is facing significant challenges due to a sharp decline in exports to China, which has shifted its purchasing to South America [3][5][14] - Recent U.S. immigration policies are causing unrest in both the agricultural and high-tech sectors, further complicating the economic landscape [9][20] Group 1: Export Dynamics - In the 2023-2024 marketing year, U.S. soybean exports to China reached 24.9 million tons, significantly higher than exports to the EU and Mexico [3] - By 2025, major Chinese grain traders have almost entirely shifted their soybean purchases to South America, leading to a drastic reduction in U.S. market share [3][14] - The U.S. Soybean Association reports that the loss of Chinese orders is causing financial distress for approximately 500,000 soybean farmers [5][11] Group 2: Financial Impact on Farmers - A survey by the U.S. Agricultural Census indicates that household income for soybean farmers in the Midwest fell by over 30% year-on-year in Q2 2025 [7] - The U.S. Department of Agriculture predicts an 18% year-on-year increase in soybean inventory by Q4 2025, putting downward pressure on prices [13] - Many farmers are being forced to reduce planting areas or switch to less profitable crops like corn and wheat due to financial pressures [13][16] Group 3: Policy and Market Reactions - The recent increase in H-1B visa application fees has raised concerns among tech companies about higher operational costs and reduced global talent attraction [9][20] - The U.S. government is attempting to negotiate agricultural tariff agreements with other markets, but these efforts are unlikely to replace the significant volume of trade with China [16][20] - The agricultural sector is calling for a rational approach to trade policies to rebuild a healthy international trade order [20]

回顾过去几年，中美贸易战的焦点之一便是大豆。中国曾是美国最大的大豆买家，但随着特朗普对中国 的关税施压，这一局面发生了根本变化。2025年秋天，正当美国农民准备迎接丰收季时，中国市场却没 有一个大豆订单。这不只是一个商业空缺，更是美国农业经济面临崩溃的信号。 曾几何时，美国大豆农民的日子是充满希望的。中国市场需求庞大，几乎占据了全球大豆出口的最大份 额。美国依赖中国市场，甚至连特朗普政府也将大豆作为贸易战中的重要筹码。通过施加关税，特朗普 希望削弱中国的贸易顺差，并迫使中国做出让步。然而，事情并未按照预期发展。中国采取反制措施， 逐步降低对美国大豆的依赖，转向巴西等南美国家采购大豆。 这种转变意味着，美国农民失去了一个无法快速替代的市场。根据最新的数据显示，2024年，中国从巴 西进口的大豆已经占据了多数的市场份额，而美国大豆的份额却只有22.83%。这种差距不仅仅是市场 份额的变化，更是美国在全球农业供应链中的战略性失误。 当特朗普政府宣布美联储降息的消息传出时，农民们的反应却并不乐观。他们知道，这个降息无法弥补 失去中国市场的损失。过去几年内，尽管特朗普政府对中国加征关税，但中国依然通过多元化采购策 略， ...

Core Insights - The U.S. soybean industry is facing a critical situation as China, its largest buyer, has placed zero orders during the harvest season, which is alarming for farmers [1][2] - Caleb Lagrange, president of the American Soybean Association, emphasizes the urgent need for strong market opportunities, particularly in China, to sustain the livelihoods of U.S. farmers [1][2] Industry Impact - The absence of Chinese orders is described as a severe threat to the financial stability of U.S. soybean farmers, with many relying solely on farming for income [2] - U.S. soybeans are currently at a price disadvantage compared to South American competitors due to tariffs, being approximately 20% more expensive, which undermines their competitiveness in the global market [2] Market Dynamics - Historically, prior to 2018, an average of 28% of U.S. soybean production was exported to China, accounting for 60% of total U.S. soybean exports during that period [2] - For the 2023-2024 marketing year, the expectation is to export nearly 25 million tons of soybeans to China, significantly higher than the 4.9 million tons exported to the European Union [2]