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晓鸣股份(300967.SZ):全球的禽流感事件暂未对公司的生产经营产生不利影响
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-29 07:17
Core Viewpoint - The company has been increasing its export frequency and market share in Mongolia, which is its primary overseas market, despite the global rise in avian influenza cases [1] Group 1: Company Operations - The company is closely monitoring the global animal disease prevention situation due to the onset of the avian influenza high season [1] - Currently, the avian influenza events have not adversely affected the company's production and operations [1]
压栏增重与二育补栏共同支撑10月中下旬猪价反弹
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-10-29 06:49
Core Viewpoint - In early October, pig prices continued to decline, but with the drop in temperature, demand for heavier pigs increased, leading to a slowdown in the pace of pig sales. This was followed by a rebound in prices in mid to late October due to increased demand and reduced supply pressure [1][3]. Price Trends - The national average price of external three yuan pigs dropped from 12.14 yuan/kg on September 30 to a low of 10.72 yuan/kg on October 13, before rebounding to 12.07 yuan/kg by October 27, marking the first time in October that the average price exceeded 12 yuan/kg [1][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - As temperatures fell in mid to late October, terminal pork demand increased, leading to higher procurement needs from slaughterhouses. The planned pig sales from 228 monitored breeding enterprises increased by 7.32% month-on-month, but actual supply growth was less than expected due to farmers holding back pigs for weight gain [3][5]. - The average weight of pigs traded rose from 123.60 kg on August 28 to 124.75 kg on October 23, reflecting a cumulative increase of 1.15 kg. This was influenced by earlier declines in breeding profitability and a low price difference between fat and standard pigs [3][5]. Weight and Supply Adjustments - The average slaughter weight of pigs approached 125 kg in October, driven by increased demand for heavier pigs from slaughterhouses. This resulted in a tighter supply of suitable pigs for slaughter, supporting the price rebound in late October [5][6]. - The weekly sales of pigs for secondary fattening surged from 7,908 heads in the week of September 12 to 48,939 heads in the week of October 17, marking an increase of 518.85% [5][6]. Future Market Outlook - Looking ahead to November, the demand for heavier pigs is expected to remain strong, but supply is anticipated to increase due to a higher number of weaned piglets and the entry of fattened pigs into the market. However, demand support may be limited, leading to a forecasted price range of 11.7 to 12.5 yuan/kg with potential downward risks in the latter half of the month [8][9].
农产品日报:惜售情绪延续,生猪期价宽幅震荡-20251029
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-29 05:26
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pig industry is cautiously bearish [3] - The investment rating for the egg industry is also cautiously bearish [6] Core Viewpoints - For the pig market, the current second - fattening sentiment is still strong, which is a reproduction link that doesn't change the total supply but will increase future supply. The short - term price is firm, but the medium - and long - term supply pressure remains large, and changes in second - fattening and production capacity need attention [2] - For the egg market, the overall demand is weak. Although egg sales have accelerated slightly this week, the improvement is short - lived. There is inventory accumulation in production areas, and the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern is hard to change in the short term [5][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pig 2601 contract yesterday was 12,160 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan/ton (-1.38%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary pigs was 12.67 yuan/kg, up 0.21 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 12.83 yuan/kg, up 0.19 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 12.23 yuan/kg, up 0.30 yuan/kg. The spot basis and its changes in different regions are also provided [1] - Agricultural product prices: On October 28, the "200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices" rose 0.50 points, and the "vegetable basket" product wholesale price index rose 0.58 points. The average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product market was 18.03 yuan/kg, up 0.4% [1] Market Analysis - Second - fattening mainly by retail investors leads to a significant shift in pig supply. The short - term price is supported, but the medium - and long - term supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, with large future slaughter pressure [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2512 contract yesterday was 3099 yuan/500 kg, down 35 yuan (-1.12%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg price was 2.89 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Shandong, it was 2.95 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Hebei, it was 2.67 yuan/jin, down 0.11 yuan. The spot basis and its changes in different regions are also given [3] - Inventory: On October 28, 2025, the national production - link inventory was 1.11 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.18 days, both unchanged from the previous day [4] Market Analysis - The overall demand is weak. Egg sales have accelerated briefly, but the situation in sales areas is stable. There is inventory accumulation in production areas, and the market is in a state of digesting previous inventory [5] Strategy - Cautiously bearish, as the number of laying hens in production remains high and the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern is difficult to change in the short term [6]
东兴证券:猪价持续下行 产能去化趋势已现 建议关注牧原股份
智通财经网· 2025-10-29 03:35
Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongxing Securities indicates that the regulation of pig production capacity under policy guidance will remain a central theme in the near future, with expectations for the elimination of outdated capacity increasing, highlighting the cost advantages of high-quality production capacity, which will lead to better profit elasticity post-regulation [1] Industry Supply and Demand Performance - The downward trend in pig prices continues, with average prices for piglets, live pigs, and pork in September 2025 being 30.06 CNY/kg, 13.81 CNY/kg, and 24.50 CNY/kg respectively, reflecting month-on-month changes of -10.62%, -3.79%, and -1.92% [1] - After the National Day holiday, the average price of live pigs has been on a continuous decline, with the national average for external three yuan live pigs at 10.90 CNY/kg as of October 20 [1] Supply Side - In September, there was a concentrated release of live pigs, with an increase in the outflow plans from both large-scale and social farms as the weather cooled, leading to a rise in market pig supply and meat output [2] - The demand side saw slight improvement due to pre-holiday stocking and cooler weather, but slaughter enterprises remained cautious, and slow inventory reduction of frozen products limited fresh product consumption growth [2] - By mid-October, the pace of second fattening at near the 10 CNY/kg bottom price accelerated, providing slight support for short-term pig prices [2] Capacity Change Trends - As of the end of September, the number of breeding sows was 40.35 million, a month-on-month decrease of 0.07%, and a reduction of 90,000 heads compared to the end of Q2 [3] - Data from various sources indicate a consistent downward trend in breeding sow inventory, with a month-on-month decline of 0.84% in September according to Yungyi and 0.28% according to Ganglian [3] Policy Regulation and Price Decline - Recent meetings have clarified requirements for capacity regulation, slaughter weight, and environmental funding, with policy implementation now in full swing, and leading enterprises responding positively [4] - As of the end of September, Muyuan Foods had a breeding sow inventory of 3.305 million, a reduction of 126,000 heads compared to the end of June [4] - The average profit per head for self-bred pigs in the industry is -185.68 CNY, while the profit for purchased piglets is -289.07 CNY, indicating increasing losses in farming [4] - The combination of policy regulation and industry losses is expected to accelerate capacity reduction, with pig prices likely to see an upward turning point in the second half of 2026 [4]
大国五年|大国饭碗,吃得好端得牢
Xin Hua She· 2025-10-29 03:26
Core Viewpoint - China's grain production has reached a new milestone of 1.4 trillion jin, ensuring food security and self-sufficiency in staple grains during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [3][5]. Group 1: Grain Production Achievements - National grain production has achieved a "21 consecutive years of bumper harvest" with a record output of over 1.4 trillion jin [3]. - Per capita grain availability has reached 500 kilograms [3]. Group 2: Agricultural Land and Quality Improvement - The country has maintained a strict limit of 1.8 billion acres of arable land, with total arable land reaching 1.94 billion acres, an increase of 28 million acres since 2020 [5]. - Over 100 million acres of high-standard farmland have been established, and more than 400 million acres of black soil have been protected [5]. Group 3: Agricultural Modernization - The contribution rate of agricultural technology advancements has reached 63.2% [7]. - The comprehensive mechanization rate for crop farming has exceeded 75% [7]. - There are over 800 agricultural research institutions and more than 120,000 researchers [7]. Group 4: Crop Variety and Livestock Development - The area of independently bred crop varieties accounts for over 95%, with a good seed coverage rate exceeding 96% [8]. - Major crop varieties such as wheat, corn, and rice have been developed, breaking foreign monopolies in breeds like white feather broilers and Huaxi cattle [8]. Group 5: Fisheries and Aquaculture - The annual production of forest food has surpassed 200 million tons, with oil tea cultivation reaching 7.5 million acres and annual tea oil production exceeding 1 million tons [10]. - The total aquatic product output has reached 73.58 million tons, maintaining the world's leading position for 36 consecutive years [12]. Group 6: Food Security and Storage - The implementation of the Food Security Guarantee Law has been established, with national grain storage capacity exceeding 730 million tons [14]. - Major cities have grain and oil reserves ensuring market supply for over 15 days [14].
A股“红包雨”超百亿,高频分红趋势吸引长线资金
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-10-29 03:22
Core Viewpoint - The trend of high-frequency dividends is becoming a new norm in both A-share and Hong Kong markets, with over 100 billion yuan in dividends being distributed as companies release their third-quarter reports [1][2][4] Group 1: A-share Market Developments - As of October 27, 95 A-share companies have announced third-quarter dividend plans, totaling 10.87 billion yuan [1] - Leading companies like Wens Foodstuff Group, Huaxin Cement, and Dahua Technology have reported significant dividend amounts, with Wens Foodstuff Group leading at 1.994 billion yuan [1] - Huaxin Cement's unexpected announcement of a 706 million yuan cash dividend, amidst a surge in profits, resulted in stock price increases of 7.89% and 10.23% in A-shares and Hong Kong shares respectively [1] Group 2: Hong Kong Market Developments - Major blue-chip companies in Hong Kong, such as HSBC Holdings and Hang Seng Bank, have also announced third-quarter dividend plans [1] - HSBC Holdings declared a dividend of $0.1 per share, maintaining the same level as the previous year, with total dividends for the year reaching $0.3 per share, which helped its stock price rise over 4% despite a decline in quarterly profits [1] Group 3: Trends and Policy Implications - The increase in high-frequency dividends is attributed to both policy guidance and market mechanisms, with new regulations encouraging companies to adopt multiple dividend distributions within a year [4] - The trend is reshaping the investment landscape, with long-term investors, such as insurance funds, increasingly favoring high-dividend companies [4] - As of mid-2023, the balance of insurance company investments exceeded 36 trillion yuan, and public fund sizes reached 36.25 trillion yuan, indicating a growing preference for high-dividend strategies in a declining interest rate environment [4]
2025年8月中国猪肉及猪杂碎进口数量和进口金额分别为18万吨和3.79亿美元
Chan Ye Xin Xi Wang· 2025-10-29 03:03
Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights a decline in China's pork and offal imports in August 2025, with a total import volume of 180,000 tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 11.1% [1] - The import value for the same period was $37.9 million, which also reflects a year-on-year decline of 10.9% [1] Industry Overview - The data is sourced from Chinese customs, indicating a significant trend in the pork industry that may impact market dynamics [1] - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in comprehensive industry research and providing tailored consulting services [1]
生猪:现货情绪回落,等待印证
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-29 01:57
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the current situation of the pig market, indicating that the sentiment in the spot market has declined, and it is waiting for further confirmation. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: The Henan spot price of pigs is 12,630 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 150 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 12,300 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Guangdong spot price is 12,360 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton year - on - year. For futures, the prices of生猪2511, 生猪2601, and 生猪2603 are 12,095 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan/ton year - on - year), 12,160 yuan/ton (down 170 yuan/ton year - on - year), and 11,620 yuan/ton (down 105 yuan/ton year - on - year) respectively. [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of生猪2511, 生猪2601, and 生猪2603 are 7,774 hands (down 6,069 hands from the previous day), 86,704 hands (down 5,581 hands from the previous day), and 20,944 hands (down 5,480 hands from the previous day) respectively. The open interests are 8,068 hands (down 2,667 hands from the previous day), 117,248 hands (up 7,747 hands from the previous day), and 92,827 hands (up 4,056 hands from the previous day) respectively. [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of生猪2511, 生猪2601, and 生猪2603 are 535 yuan/ton (up 120 yuan/ton year - on - year), 470 yuan/ton (up 320 yuan/ton year - on - year), and 1,010 yuan/ton (up 255 yuan/ton year - on - year) respectively. The 生猪11 - 1 spread is - 65 yuan/ton (up 200 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the 生猪1 - 3 spread is 540 yuan/ton (down 65 yuan/ton year - on - year). [1] Market Information - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish). [2] Futures Research - **New Delivery Warehouses**: Yuexiu and Yangxiang have added new delivery warehouses. [3] - **Feed Production**: In September, the national feed production of the Feed Industry Association was 30.36 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5%. [3]
农业农村部:根据监测10月第3周全国生猪平均价格环比上涨0.2%
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-10-29 01:48
Core Insights - The agricultural prices in China show mixed trends, with some products experiencing price increases while others see declines [1][2]. Price Trends - **Pork Products**: The average price of live pigs is 12.32 yuan/kg, up 0.2% week-on-week but down 32.2% year-on-year. The average price of pork is 23.11 yuan/kg, down 1.1% week-on-week and down 22.0% year-on-year. The average price of piglets is 25.13 yuan/kg, down 3.5% week-on-week and down 29.5% year-on-year [1]. - **Poultry Products**: The average price of eggs is 8.74 yuan/kg, down 1.4% week-on-week and down 23.1% year-on-year. The average price of chicken is 22.33 yuan/kg, down 0.6% week-on-week and down 5.7% year-on-year. The average price of broiler chicks is 3.60 yuan each, down 1.1% week-on-week and down 8.6% year-on-year [1]. - **Beef and Mutton Products**: The average price of beef is 71.27 yuan/kg, unchanged week-on-week and up 5.8% year-on-year. The average price of mutton is 70.61 yuan/kg, up 0.2% week-on-week and up 1.0% year-on-year [1]. Feed Prices - **Corn**: The average price of corn is 2.46 yuan/kg, unchanged week-on-week and up 2.9% year-on-year. In the main production area of Northeast China, the price is 2.25 yuan/kg, down 0.4% week-on-week [2]. - **Soybean Meal**: The average price of soybean meal is 3.26 yuan/kg, down 0.3% week-on-week and down 2.7% year-on-year [2]. - **Fattening Pig and Chicken Feed**: The average price of fattening pig feed is 3.36 yuan/kg, down 0.3% week-on-week and down 1.5% year-on-year. The average price of chicken feed is 3.49 yuan/kg, down 0.3% week-on-week and down 1.1% year-on-year [2].
南农晨读 | 十字花科 聚势绽放
Nan Fang Nong Cun Bao· 2025-10-29 01:00
Group 1 - Guangdong Province has announced a list of pilot projects for modern agricultural industry support, with a total funding of 195 million yuan for the years 2024-2025 [3][5][6] - The pilot projects involve eight initiatives across seven cities in Guangdong, aimed at enhancing agricultural development [4][5] - The public announcement period for these projects is from October 24 to October 30, 2025 [4][5] Group 2 - The 7th World Hakka Business Conference will be held in Meizhou from November 23 to 25, 2023, focusing on global business collaboration for high-quality development [9][10][11] - The conference will feature 11 activities aimed at attracting investment, regional cooperation, and cultural exchange [10][11][12] Group 3 - The 21st China International Grain and Oil Expo will take place from October 30 to November 1, showcasing the ecological advantages of Qingyuan's silk rice [16][17][19] - Qingyuan silk rice is positioned as a key component of Guangdong's agricultural industry, highlighting its brand development at the expo [18][19][20] Group 4 - The citrus industry in Guangxi is undergoing a transformation, with a projected reduction in planting area from 9 million mu to a stable range of 4.5 to 5 million mu by 2025 [22][24][25] - This shift represents a move towards quality improvement in the citrus sector [24][25] Group 5 - The "Xingning Pigeon" brand is emerging as a significant player in the meat pigeon market, integrating supply chains and innovating in pre-prepared dishes [28][35][36] - This brand is seen as a model for driving local economic development and rural revitalization through agricultural innovation [36][37] Group 6 - Zhanjiang is recognized as a core production area for shrimp, with a focus on both breeding and processing, and is expanding its supply chain globally [39][42][43] - A seafood promotion event was held in Guiyang, showcasing Zhanjiang's strengths in the shrimp industry [40][43]