A股猪肉板块盘初走弱，湘佳股份跌超5%，大禹生物跌超2%，光明肉业、禾丰股份、罗牛山跟跌。 ...

南非政府近日已启动价值7200万兰特的紧急疫苗采购程序，下一批疫苗预计将于6月中旬交付。南非农 业部农业生产、生物安全和自然资源管理副总监迪佩佩内内·塞拉杰介绍，此次采购的疫苗来自博茨瓦 纳，所针对的病毒株与南非流行毒株相似，有助于遏制病毒在豪登省进一步传播。 尽管业内认为此次疫情不会立即推高消费者市场的牛肉价格，但出口转内销可能造成市场价格下行，从 而压缩企业利润空间。(完) 根据公司官网信息，该饲养场为非洲规模最大的牛只集中饲养设施，占地达2330公顷，可容纳多达14.5 万头牛。 （文章来源：中国新闻网） 卡兰公司2日发布声明称，尽管严格执行入栏前的隔离观察和兽医检疫措施，但上周仍在饲养场发现感 染病例。公司表示，正与官方密切合作，全力控制疫情，以最大程度降低对行业的影响。 中新社约翰内斯堡6月3日电综合南非媒体3日消息，南非大型牛肉生产商卡兰牛肉公司(Karan Beef)位于 豪登省海德堡的一处饲养场近日确认出现口蹄疫病例。南非农业部对此表示"极度担忧"，并警告该疫情 可能对其他生产企业构成连锁风险。 塞拉杰指出，此前口蹄疫主要集中在林波波省、夸祖鲁-纳塔尔省和姆普马兰加省等区域，此次疫情突 发于非 ...

Key Points - The article discusses significant changes in agricultural commodities, particularly wheat, soybean oil, palm oil, sugar, and livestock prices, highlighting the impact of weather conditions and policy changes on market dynamics [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9]. Group 1: Wheat and Corn Market - Wheat is being harvested earlier due to drought conditions, with quality issues overshadowing potential yield reductions, leading to a 3% decline in corn futures as seasonal demand weakens [1][8]. - The U.S. biodiesel policy is uncertain, with potential RVO increases not materializing, causing a drop in soybean oil prices [1][8]. Group 2: Sugar Market Dynamics - The issuance of processing sugar quotas and sustained high import processing profits are putting pressure on Zhengzhou sugar prices [2][6]. - Domestic sugar pricing is influenced by policy shifts, with a notable decrease in imports of syrup and premixed powder, leading to a tighter domestic supply [11][12][13]. Group 3: Livestock and Egg Prices - The supply of eggs and pigs is expected to increase, resulting in a decline in prices due to high certainty in supply growth [2][4]. - Monitoring of egg-laying hen stocks and culling is crucial to understanding the profit cycle for egg production [3][4]. Group 4: Palm Oil Market - Malaysian palm oil production is expected to decline in the latter half of May, with estimates ranging from a 1% to 3% decrease compared to the previous month, providing some support to palm oil prices [4][9]. - India's palm oil imports are projected to rise, providing support to production prices, but overall, there is a need for increased exports to China to manage seasonal production pressures [5][9]. Group 5: Soybean and Meal Market - Domestic soybean oil consumption is constrained by crushing profits, limiting the potential for significant consumption growth [3][4]. - The soybean meal futures market is expected to outperform the spot market, with a weakening basis creating an opportunity for reverse hedging [3][4]. Group 6: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market may be overly concerned about the annual corn supply gap, with the next few weeks being critical for assessing inventory levels and price trends [3][4]. - The sugar market is anticipated to face downward pressure due to global oversupply, with predictions of a surplus in the upcoming years [11][12][13].

天邦食品（002124）公告，2025年5月份销售商品猪50.09万头(其中仔猪销售16.61万头)，销售收入7.03 亿元，销售均价16.29元/公斤(商品肥猪均价为14.62元/公斤)，环比变动分别为6.38%、1.83%、-0.02%。 2025年1-5月销售商品猪245.18万头(其中仔猪销售77.49万头)，销售收入34.68亿元，销售均价16.26元/公 斤(商品肥猪均价为14.83元/公斤)，同比变动分别为-2.83%、8.79%、4.97%。 ...

【5月河南猪肉价格先跌后涨，预计6月先弱后强且均价环比窄幅下移】5月份，河南猪肉市场价格先跌 后涨，价格重心窄幅下移。截至5月29日，河南猪肉5月均价19.05元/公斤，环比下跌0.83%，同比下跌 6.88%。月内高点19.40元/公斤在月初，低点18.25元/公斤在5月23日，高低价差1.15元/公斤，波动幅度 较上月扩大109%。 5月，河南猪肉整体价格略高于全国平均水平，日均价差0.41元/公斤。因5月上半旬 河南区域鲜肉供应量偏紧，支撑价格相对强势。 5月河南猪肉供应量高位运行。5月初白条猪肉鲜销量 达28166头，为春节后最高，虽后续几周下滑，但5月平均鲜销量维持年内高位，使价格上行乏力。 鲜 销量提升与生猪出栏量增长相关。2025年河南生猪出栏量同比明显增加，4月样本企业出栏量同比增 68.05%，较上月同比增幅扩大13.98个百分点。5月出栏量预计仍保持较高同比增幅，5月周均鲜销量 24524头，同比增27.73%。 五一小长假后，河南猪肉消费量回落，端午节带动需求回暖，5月末出现翘 尾效应。5月样本企业日均屠宰量27202头，环比下跌6.58%，同比增10.57%。5月末屠宰量小幅反弹，5 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the **pig farming industry** and the **pork market** dynamics in China, focusing on supply, demand, and pricing trends. Key Points and Arguments Short-term Price Trends - Short-term support for pig prices is expected from fattening or secondary fattening, but supply release will lead to prices hitting a new low again. Post-Duanwu Festival, a supply-demand mismatch may cause price declines in July and August [1][3] - The market is currently in a wait-and-see phase, with supply-demand ratios needing to find new equilibrium points, potentially around June 4 or June 5 [3] Medium-term Outlook - Medium-term expectations indicate that weight reduction and decreased fattening stock will alleviate supply-demand pressure, coupled with the upcoming consumption peak, leading to a potential price increase [1][3] - The number of breeding sows is showing a downward trend, with an increase in the number of sows being culled, reflecting market pessimism regarding pig prices for the second half of the year and next year [1][5] Long-term Projections - Long-term projections suggest a marginal decrease in production capacity by 2026 due to policy factors and insufficient future expectations from large-scale farms [1][10] - The overall market sentiment is pessimistic, with expectations of reduced production capacity driven by government measures to cut capacity [10] Slaughtering Trends - In 2025, slaughtering volumes exceeded expectations, with leading slaughterhouses seeing over a 30% year-on-year increase, attributed to improved product capabilities and concentrated farming structures [2][7] - The decline in slaughtering volumes from small-scale butchers and regional meat processing plants indicates a clear trend towards slaughtering centralization [2][7] Supply Chain Dynamics - The proportion of social pig sources received by slaughterhouses is low due to large output from farming companies and a cautious stance from farmers regarding future price expectations [3][4] - The current supply pressure remains significant, with the average weight of pigs being adjusted downwards, but the overall supply structure still shows high levels of stock [8][9] Factors Influencing Pork Prices - Key factors affecting medium to long-term pork price predictions include the transfer of stock structure, seasonal demand, and policy influences [6][10] - The second quarter's piglet numbers are insufficient to meet the supply demands for December and January, necessitating adjustments in stock and weight to compensate for seasonal demand [6][10] Market Behavior - The behavior of various market participants, including large farming companies and individual farmers, is influencing overall market trends, with large companies dominating sales channels while individual farmers reduce their output [4][5] Additional Important Insights - The current high culling rate of sows, approximately 5% in June, reflects market expectations and production cost management [10] - The overall market is characterized by a high stock rate and low turnover, limiting the space for replenishing piglets, which is a significant factor in the ongoing decline of piglet prices [10]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records focus on the pig farming industry in China, specifically the market dynamics of pork prices and related agricultural products [1][5]. Key Points and Arguments - **Pork Prices**: As of the fourth week of May, the price of white strip pork was 14.7 yuan/kg, a decrease of 12.6% month-on-month. The average slaughter weight was 91.9 kg, down by 0.2 kg [1]. - **Poultry Prices**: Chick prices rose to 2.9 yuan each, while the price of broiler chickens increased to 7.4 yuan/kg. However, chicken meat prices fell to 8.85 yuan/kg [1][3]. - **Grain Market**: Corn prices increased by 0.2% to 2,380 yuan/ton, while wheat prices decreased by 0.4% to 2,453 yuan/ton. The price of japonica rice remained stable at 2,864 yuan/ton [1][3]. - **Soybean Market**: The soybean market showed weakness, with the CBOT soybean closing down by 2.4 points, and soybean meal prices fell by 1.7% to 2,975 yuan/ton [1][3]. - **Palm Oil and Sugar**: Domestic palm oil prices rose by 0.3% to 8,628 yuan/ton, while Malaysian palm oil increased by 1.3% to 3,878 ringgit/ton. Domestic sugar prices remained stable at 6,160 yuan/ton, while international sugar prices fell by 1.2% to 17.1 cents/pound [1][4]. Market Outlook - The pig market in 2025 is expected to differ from previous downturn cycles, with stable prices and ongoing profitability. The self-breeding and self-raising model remains profitable, albeit at lower levels [5]. - The actual downward pressure on prices is less severe than anticipated, although the futures market remains pessimistic due to expected increases in production capacity and weight [5]. - The breeding sow population shows little fluctuation, indicating rational management in response to future uncertainties and the effects of scale [5]. Investment Recommendations - Despite overall weak profitability in the industry, leading companies such as Muyuan, Wens Foodstuffs, and Shennong have significant cost advantages, with costs just above 12 yuan/kg, below the industry average of approximately 14.5 yuan/kg [3][6]. - It is suggested to focus on stocks of these leading companies during the off-season, as they present potential for valuation reassessment and good cost-performance ratios [7]. Additional Insights - The trend of increasing weight since 2023 has constrained price expectations, but a decline in weight is anticipated as summer approaches, which could positively impact future prices [2][5]. - Enhanced regulation on secondary fattening practices may also help improve supply-demand relationships in the market [2][5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply of pigs is expected to increase due to the normalization of breeding practices, which may exert downward pressure on prices in the short term. However, as supply stabilizes, prices are anticipated to stabilize or slightly rebound [4][14] - The pet food sector is experiencing a rise in domestic brands, supported by consumption upgrades and tariff barriers, with significant growth expected in the pet food market [6][26][28] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The average national pig selling price on May 30 was 14.44 yuan/kg, up by 0.17 yuan/kg from the previous week, with a daily average slaughter volume of 156,400 pigs, an increase of 13,200 pigs [4][14] - The demand side shows slight recovery, and the focus remains on policies affecting the pig industry [4][14] Weekly Market Performance (May 26-30) - The agricultural index outperformed the market by 1.82 percentage points, with the agricultural index rising by 1.79% while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.03% [29][30] - The livestock breeding sector led the gains, with notable increases in stocks such as Juxing Agriculture (+13.15%) and Xiwang Food (+12.42%) [29][32] Price Tracking (May 26-30) - The national average price for pigs was 14.47 yuan/kg, up by 1.12% from the previous week. The average price for piglets was 35.24 yuan/kg, down by 0.90% [36] - The average price for corn was 2,339.00 yuan/ton, up by 0.52%, while soybean meal was priced at 2,966.00 yuan/ton, up by 0.54% [51] Key News (May 26-30) - An announcement was made to prevent the entry of highly pathogenic avian influenza from Brazil, highlighting the importance of biosecurity in the livestock sector [33] Weekly Insights - The pig sector shows low valuation and potential for recovery, with recommendations for companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [26] - The feed sector benefits from the recovery of livestock and strong overseas demand, with recommendations for companies like Haida Group and New Hope Liuhe [26]

【周度猪市评估：现货先涨后落，长期供压下建议反弹抛空】上周国内猪价先涨后落，前期养殖端出栏 积极致猪价承压。临近端午市场走货转好，支撑市场情绪。但备货期结束后，价格再度转弱。周内肥标 价差震荡，二育积极性一般，猪体重小幅下滑。 具体来看，河南均价周涨0.26元至14.62元/公斤，周内 最高14.78元/公斤；四川均价周涨0.06元至14.16元/公斤，周内最高14.4元/公斤；广东均价周涨0.12元至 15.38元/公斤。 端午节后消费减少，供应端主导市场。考虑月初供应增量有限，下周初期猪价仍有支 撑。但随着供应恢复，预计猪价震荡走跌，期间需留意二育等因素的支撑作用。 供应方面，4月官方母 猪存栏4038万头，环比小幅回落，仍比正常母猪量多3.5%。去年以来母猪产能增加，或使25年基本面 弱于24年。 仔猪端，理论出栏量在25年三季度前或延续偏大格局，需留意出栏节奏和市场情绪对供应 的影响。近端数据显示，屠宰需求缓慢恢复，但供应积压，体重明显积累，标猪供应量依旧偏大。 需 求端整体消费环境偏弱，消费习惯改变不利猪肉消费。同比看，猪肉消费逐年回落；环比看，需留意节 日消费对猪价的脉冲影响。 小结指出，短期现货 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the integration of agricultural technology to enhance food security and production efficiency in Guangdong province through various innovative models and practices [25][27][30]. Group 1: Agricultural Technology Deployment - Agricultural technology specialists are actively engaged in providing precise services throughout the entire production cycle, focusing on seed selection, planting, management, and harvesting [35][36][37]. - In Guangzhou, a special action named "Protecting Spring Plowing and Ensuring Food Supply" has mobilized 3,434 agricultural technology specialists, conducting 853 technical services and addressing 1,292 technical needs [38][39][40]. Group 2: Mechanization and Automation - The province is promoting mechanization and automation to improve agricultural production efficiency, particularly in rice planting and harvesting [50][51]. - In Shaoguan, a demonstration of mechanized rice planting showed an increase in seedling density from 12,000 to 18,000 per acre, potentially increasing yield by over 15% [58][60]. Group 3: Green Agricultural Practices - To combat the excessive use of fertilizers and pesticides, Guangdong is implementing green pest control and circular agriculture practices [66][67]. - In Shantou, a reduction of over 30% in chemical pesticide usage has been achieved through the establishment of a pest control system that integrates pest scouting, precise application, and ecological regulation [68][69]. Group 4: Collaborative Mechanisms - The province is fostering collaboration among government, enterprises, and research institutions to create a synergistic effect in agricultural production [78][79]. - In Shenzhen, agricultural technology specialists are conducting demand surveys in typical villages to establish a mechanism for focused support in rice and specialty vegetable cultivation [80][81]. Group 5: Empowering Specialty Industries - Guangdong is leveraging technology to enhance the value of regional specialty agriculture while ensuring food security [84][85]. - In Dongguan, the introduction of agricultural technology specialists has led to a 12% increase in the yield of the local taro industry, with a 25% growth in product value [86][87]. Group 6: Comprehensive Service Model - The province has established a comprehensive service model that covers production guidance, disease prevention, ecological protection, and skills training [87][88]. - The "Agricultural Technology Specialist (Light Cavalry)" teams are extending their services beyond seasonal spring plowing to year-round support for rural revitalization [89][90]. Group 7: Talent Development and Skill Enhancement - Initiatives are in place to train rural youth in agricultural practices, with 12 out of 70 trainees starting their own family farms, creating 150 jobs [124][125]. - The training programs for agricultural technology specialists have improved the compliance rate of agricultural product inspections from 97.5% to 99.2% [126][127]. Group 8: Recognition and Impact - Four agricultural technology personnel from Guangdong have been recognized as national labor models, highlighting the importance of their contributions to agricultural development [133][136][137].