1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract decreased with a weekly decline of about 0.64%. Sugarcane in major producing countries is being crushed. India's sugar production has increased significantly year - on - year. As of December 24, 2025/26, Thailand has produced 100.05 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 16.67 million tons. As of December 15, India's cumulative sugar production from sugarcane is 779 million tons, a 28% year - on - year increase. In the domestic market, as of now, all 73 sugar mills in Guangxi for the 25/26 crushing season have started operations, with large differences in sugar extraction rates; 38 sugar mills in Yunnan have started operations, 7 more than the same period last year. However, the market estimates that Guangxi's sugar production in December will decrease significantly year - on - year, and there are large differences in sales volume estimates. Before the release of December production and sales data, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract decreased with a weekly decline of about 0.64% [5]. - **Market Outlook**: Sugarcane in major producing countries is being crushed. India's sugar production has increased significantly year - on - year. As of December 24, 2025/26, Thailand has produced 100.05 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 16.67 million tons. As of December 15, India's cumulative sugar production from sugarcane is 779 million tons, a 28% year - on - year increase. In the domestic market, all 73 sugar mills in Guangxi for the 25/26 crushing season have started operations, with large differences in sugar extraction rates; 38 sugar mills in Yunnan have started operations, 7 more than the same period last year. The market estimates that Guangxi's sugar production in December will decrease significantly year - on - year, and there are large differences in sales volume estimates. Before the release of December production and sales data, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [5]. - **Future Focus**: Domestic new sugar crushing situation and demand [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Sugar Market**: This week, the price of the US Sugar March contract decreased with a weekly decline of about 2.04%. As of December 16, 2025, the non - commercial net short position in raw sugar futures was 157,649 lots, a decrease of 24,913 lots from the previous week. Long positions were 159,080 lots, an increase of 4,167 lots from the previous week, and short positions were 316,729 lots, a decrease of 20,746 lots from the previous week [12]. - **International Raw Sugar Spot Price**: This week, the international raw sugar spot price was 14.93 cents per pound, an increase of 0.38 cents per pound from last week [16]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar Futures**: This week, the price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract decreased with a weekly decline of about 0.64%. The net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou Sugar futures was - 62,287 lots, and the number of Zhengzhou Sugar warehouse receipts was 5,182. The price difference between the 5 - 9 contracts of Zhengzhou Sugar futures was - 15 yuan per ton, and the spot - Zhengzhou Sugar basis was + 159 yuan per ton [17][23][27]. - **Spot Market**: As of December 31, the new sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,410 yuan per ton, and the sugar price in Nanning was 5,350 yuan per ton. This week, the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 1,274 yuan per ton, a decrease of 43 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar outside the quota was 46 yuan per ton, an increase of 33 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of Thai sugar within the quota was 1,108 yuan per ton, an increase of 57 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of Thai sugar outside the quota was - 16 yuan per ton, an increase of 33 yuan per ton from last week [33][39]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side - Production Increase**: As of the end of October 2025, the national sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar - making season was 1.11621 billion tons, an increase of 119.89 million tons or 12.03% year - on - year [43]. - **Supply Side - Industrial Inventory**: No specific data provided in the text. - **Supply Side - Import Volume**: In November 2025, China's sugar import volume was 440,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.08% and a month - on - month decrease of 310,000 tons. From January to November 2025, the cumulative sugar import volume was 4.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.74% [48]. - **Demand Side - Sales Rate**: No specific data provided in the text. - **Demand Side - Production Volume**: In November 2025, China's monthly production of refined sugar was 1.303 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. China's monthly production of soft drinks was 10.457 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4% [56]. 3.4 Options and Stock - Related Markets - **Options Market**: No specific data provided in the text. - **Stock Market - Nanning Sugar Industry**: Only the historical PE ratio chart of Nanning Sugar Industry is provided, with no specific data analysis [62].

Group 1 - The Indonesian government will allow the import of 3.12 million tons of industrial sugar in the coming year [1] - An additional 508,360 tons of sugar will be imported as an incentive for exporters [1] - The government has decided to cease imports of sugar for household consumption by 2026 [1]

Group 1: Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for different sectors are as follows: sugar in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector is rated as "volatile"; jujube in the same sector is also rated as "volatile"; rubber series in the energy and chemical sector is rated as a combination of "volatile" for natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and synthetic rubber [1][4][5]. Group 2: Core Views - For the sugar market, overseas sugar supply pressure remains due to increasing Indian sugar production, and both domestic and overseas sugar markets have a bearish outlook in the medium to long - term. For the jujube market, although there is a seasonal de - stocking, the total inventory is still high, and there are insufficient positive factors for a significant price rebound in the medium to long - term. For the rubber market, natural rubber may face a correction due to eased overseas tensions and continued inventory accumulation, and the upward momentum of synthetic rubber prices may be hindered [1][4][5]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Sugar Market Review - On the previous trading day, the SR605 contract closed at 5,253 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.61%, and the night - session closed at 5,263 yuan/ton [1]. Important Information - The spot price of white sugar in Guangxi decreased by 26 yuan/ton to 5,299 yuan/ton. The price ranges of sugar - making groups and processing plants also had different degrees of decline. As of December 27, 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume decreased by 16.71% year - on - year, and sugar production decreased by 15.83%. As of December 15, 2025, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season increased by 27.69% year - on - year. The number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's white sugar warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 5,038 [1]. Market Logic - The ICE raw sugar price stabilized after the previous positive news was digested. The domestic sugar market was quiet in terms of news, and the fundamental expectations changed little. The significant rebound of the previous domestic sugar futures was mainly due to the overseas market and the departure of short - selling funds. Currently, domestic sugar mills are in full - swing production, and new sugar will be on the market at a high speed in the future [1]. Trading Strategy - Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude towards the SR605 contract, and partially take profit on the previously held call options [1]. Jujube Market Review - On the previous trading day, the CJ605 contract closed at 8,970 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.11% [4]. Important Information - The physical inventory of 36 sample points last week was 15,898 tons, a decrease of 1.30% week - on - week and an increase of 37.17% year - on - year. The wholesale price of top - grade jujubes in Hebei decreased by 0.03 yuan/kg. The number of arrival vehicles at the Guangdong Ruyifang Market increased by 1. The number of jujube warehouse receipts increased by 79 to 1,171 [4]. Market Logic - The jujube inventory is in the seasonal de - stocking period, but the total inventory is still at a historical high. After the supply negative factors are gradually digested, the market focuses on demand. The futures price has received some support after falling to the previous low. In the medium to long - term, there are insufficient positive factors, and the futures price may not have much room for a significant rebound. In the short - term, it may fluctuate at a low level without new news and capital injection [4]. Trading Strategy - Hold short positions in the CJ605 contract or take profit and exit [4]. Rubber Market Review - As of December 29, the RU2605 contract closed at 15,665 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.73%; the NR2602 contract closed at 12,665 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.71%; the BR2602 contract closed at 11,600 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.30% [5]. Important Information - The price of raw material glue in Thailand and the prices in Hainan remained unchanged. As of December 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 3.28% week - on - week. The social inventory of natural rubber in China increased by 2.5%. The capacity utilization rates of semi - steel tire and all - steel tire sample enterprises decreased. The prices of various rubber products had different degrees of changes. The price of butadiene had different price ranges in different regions, and the prices of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber in Shandong market increased [5]. Market Logic - The natural rubber price was weak. The easing of overseas tensions limited the increase in Thai raw material prices, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. In the context of the release of previous positive factors and the weakening of the commodity market atmosphere, the natural rubber may face a correction. For synthetic rubber, the rising butadiene price supports the cis - butadiene rubber price, but the stalemate in the spot market negotiation and the drag of the natural rubber futures may hinder the upward momentum of the BR futures price [5]. Trading Strategy - Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude towards the rubber series, and consider taking profit on the previously held long positions in a timely manner [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The price of white sugar is expected to oscillate within the range formed by domestic production cost ($5400/ton) and import cost line (about $5200/ton) in the next 1 - 2 weeks, with a slightly stronger trend but limited rebound space. The core contradiction lies in the game between the high - supply pressure brought by the new domestic sugar listing and the strong support formed by the import cost line and domestic production cost. Although the price broke through the oscillation range driven by short - covering and cost support during the week, the sharp increase in warehouse receipts and inventory and the strong bearish sentiment restricted the upside space, and it is expected to oscillate below the cost line in the short term [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review 3.1.1. Weekly Review - Futures: The closing price of the No. 11 sugar continuous contract rose 2.36% from 14.82 to 15.17, and the closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar main contract rose 3.87% from 5088 to 5285 - Spot: The current prices of Nanning, Liuzhou, and Kunming increased by 1.91%, 1.91%, and 0.39% respectively, while the current price of Rizhao Lingyunhai remained unchanged - Basis: The basis between Liuzhou sugar and the main contract narrowed by 68.31% from 142 to 45 - Warehouse Receipts: The number of warehouse receipts increased by 39.52% from 3611 to 5038, the effective forecast decreased by 5.91% from 1490 to 1402, and the total of warehouse receipts + effective forecast increased by 26.25% from 5101 to 6440 - Market Sentiment: The bullish ratio of Zhengzhou sugar increased by 15 percentage points to 25%, the bearish ratio decreased by 15 percentage points to 55%, and the neutral ratio remained unchanged at 20% [5] 3.1.2. Domestic Futures and Spot - Not elaborated in the provided content 3.1.3. Raw Sugar Futures - Not elaborated in the provided content 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. China's Sugar Production and Sales - Not elaborated in the provided content 3.2.2. Production and Sales of Sugarcane Sugar in Major Domestic Producing Areas - Not elaborated in the provided content 3.2.3. Production and Sales of Beet Sugar in Major Domestic Producing Areas - Not elaborated in the provided content 3.2.4. China's White Sugar Industrial Inventory - Not elaborated in the provided content 3.2.5. China's Sugar Imports and Exports - Not elaborated in the provided content 3.2.6. Main Sugar Importing Countries of China - Not elaborated in the provided content 3.2.7. China's Sugar Import Cost and Profit - For Brazil, the in - quota processing cost increased by 3.79% to 4052, the out - of - quota processing cost increased by 3.88% to 5169, the in - quota import profit decreased by 6.93% to 1732, the out - of - quota import profit decreased by 22.08% to 614, the premium increased by 33.33% to 0.04, and the shipping cost decreased by 6.35% to 33.03 - For Thailand, the in - quota processing cost increased by 4.28% to 4094, the out - of - quota processing cost increased by 4.38% to 5224, the in - quota import profit decreased by 8.10% to 1690, the out - of - quota import profit decreased by 26.45% to 559, the premium remained unchanged at 0.89, and the shipping cost remained unchanged at 18 [30] 3.3. International Market Fundamentals 3.3.1. Available Sugar Quantity in Brazil - Not elaborated in the provided content 3.3.2. Sugarcane Crushing Volume in Brazil - Not elaborated in the provided content 3.3.3. Sugar Production in Brazil - Not elaborated in the provided content 3.3.4. Ethanol Production in Brazil - Not elaborated in the provided content 3.3.5. Sugar Imports and Exports in Brazil - Not elaborated in the provided content 3.3.6. International Raw Sugar Premium and Shipping Cost - Not elaborated in the provided content

主。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5253 | -32 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 432294 | -16630 7403 | | | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) | 5038 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:白糖(日,手) | -60824 | | | | 有效仓单预报:白糖:小计(日,张) | 2965 | 1563 | | | | 现货市场 | 进口加工估算价(配额内):巴西糖(日,元/ | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's focus lies in whether the current sugar price has bottomed out. Key contradictions include the rationality of the 01 contract price, the future price of the 05 contract, and whether the international market can stabilize above 15 cents [2]. - The upward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar is slowing down. The overall structure has not reversed, and there is a possibility of price fluctuations and a return to a downward trend [10]. - The long - term backwardation pattern of sugar futures is difficult to break, and there is a possibility of further widening of the spread [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The 01 contract has entered the delivery month. After a significant rebound, its price dropped compared to the far - month contracts last Thursday. The 01 price corresponds to a minimum spot price of about 5160 yuan according to the Brazilian out - of - quota 45 - day shipping import price [2]. - The 05 contract is currently at a discount to the Guangxi sugar price but is similar to the Brazilian out - of - quota import price. It is more likely to follow the raw sugar price, but the probability of further price increases is limited due to insufficient bullish factors [2]. - The international raw sugar price rose after a decline last week, approaching 15.2 cents. However, it has been suppressed after reaching this price four times. The bullish impact is more reflected in the far - month contracts, and the rebound height of the near - month sugar price is expected to be limited [2]. 3.1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The upward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar is slowing down. The moving averages show a clear bearish arrangement. Although the 05 contract's K - line briefly crossed the 10 - day, 20 - day, and 30 - day moving averages, the overall structure has not changed, and there is a possibility of price fluctuations [10]. - **Recent Strategy Review**: - The unilateral long position in SR2511 has been stopped out. - The strategy of selling spot and buying SR2511 has been entered [11]. - **Basis, Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: - **Basis Strategy**: None. - **Spread Strategy**: Short 05 and long 09 [11]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The predicted monthly price range for sugar is 5000 - 5300 yuan, with a current volatility of 11.29% and a historical percentile of 2.2% over three years [12]. - **Hedging Strategy**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2603, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 5300 - 5350 yuan) and sell call options (SR603C5400, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 35 - 40) [12]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, they can buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2603, 25% hedging ratio, entry range 5100 - 5150 yuan) and sell put options (SR603P5000, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 20 - 30) [12]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Bullish Information**: - As of December 25, 2025, all 73 sugar mills in Guangxi for the 2025/26 crushing season have started production, one less than the previous year, with a daily cane - crushing capacity of about 59.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.2 million tons year - on - year [13]. - As of December 24, 2025, Thailand's cumulative cane crushing volume in the 2025/26 crushing season was 11.5321 million tons, a decrease of 1.9633 million tons (14.54%) year - on - year. Sugar production was 1.0005 million tons, a decrease of 0.1667 million tons (14.28%) year - on - year [13]. - In India, sugarcane in the Kuditrey region is suffering losses due to flowering, and farmers have requested early crushing [13]. - Brazil's mid - southern region's sugar production in the 26/27 season is expected to be 38 million tons, a 5% decrease from the previous season [14]. - **Bearish Information**: - In November 2025, China's dairy product output was 2.431 million tons, a 2.7% year - on - year decrease; from January to November, it was 26.85 million tons, a 1.2% year - on - year decrease. The beverage output in November was 10.457 million tons, a 0.4% year - on - year increase; from January to November, it was 165.606 million tons, a 3.3% year - on - year increase [15]. - As of December 18, 2025, 69 sugar mills in Guangxi for the 2025/26 crushing season have started production, five less than the previous year, with a daily cane - crushing capacity of about 57.2 million tons, a decrease of 2.4 million tons year - on - year [16]. - As of December 15, 2025, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season reached 7.825 million tons, a 27.69% increase year - on - year [16]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Key Events - Brazil's weekly port waiting sugar quantity and the number of ships (Thursday, Beijing time) [17]. - Brazil's weekly sugar export data (Tuesday, Beijing time) [21]. - India's sugar - crushing progress [21]. - December production and sales data of Guangxi and Yunnan [21]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Fund Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: - **Unilateral Trend**: The futures price rose last week, with the main 05 contract rising 3.87% for the week. The position of the SR2605 contract has seasonally declined recently. The largest profit - taking seat in sugar has significantly increased its net short position to 15,000 contracts, while the net short position of foreign - funded seats has slightly decreased to 52,300 contracts. Technically, although the short - term price has risen significantly, the bearish arrangement still exists, and the price may fluctuate [19]. - **Basis and Spread Structure**: - **Basis Structure**: The premium of the cheapest deliverable for the 01 contract has dropped to - 249 yuan/ton. If calculated based on the import price around January 15, the futures price is still at a premium of about 100 yuan/ton [22]. - **Spread Structure**: The 1 - 5 spread changed significantly last week due to the rapid decline of the 01 contract price. The long - term price difference is stable, with a slight near - month premium [22]. - **International Market**: - **Unilateral Trend**: The raw sugar price rose last week, up 2.15%. The price is approaching the Brazilian export cost line. The non - commercial position of CFTC has maintained a large short position but decreased last week [24]. - **Spread Structure**: The current raw sugar futures show a back structure with strong near - month and weak far - month prices. The pressure of increased production in the Thai and Indian markets is high. The far - month discount is unfavorable for sugar mills' hedging, and the hedging pressure reappears above 15.2 cents [27]. - **Domestic - International Spread Tracking**: Due to the quota system, the price fluctuations of Zhengzhou sugar are much smaller than those of raw sugar. Recently, affected by the start of sugar mills in Guangxi and large imports, the domestic supply pressure has increased, while the overseas export profit has shrunk to a loss. The previous pattern of strong domestic and weak international markets has temporarily changed to weak domestic and strong international markets [29]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - **Import Profit Tracking**: China is a net importer of sugar, and the production cost is higher than the international market. With the recent decline in the international price and the firm domestic price, the out - of - quota import profit is very high. In addition to sugar imports, syrup and premixed powder imports are also used to supplement supply. Although the import window from Thailand and Vietnam has been closed, imports from other Asian countries such as Malaysia have increased. Recently, the imports of syrup and premixed powder have been relatively stable [32]. 3.5 Supply and Inventory Projection - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection**: Since the 2025/26 crushing season, considering the good growth of sugarcane in the Guangxi production area, the overall sugar production is expected to increase slightly compared to last year. According to the November data from the China Sugar Association, the estimated production will rise to about 11.56 million tons, a 3.56% year - on - year increase. Other data are estimated based on the 2024/25 crushing season and the current situation and are not used as a reference for real - world data [34].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant decline in China's sugar imports in November 2025, with a total import quantity of 440,000 tons, representing an 18.2% year-on-year decrease, and an import value of $18.1 million, down 35.6% year-on-year [1][2] Group 2 - The companies mentioned in the article include COFCO Sugar Holdings (600737) and Guangnong Sugar Industry (000911) [1] - The data regarding sugar imports is sourced from the General Administration of Customs of China and compiled by Zhiyan Consulting [2]

图为发布会现场。吴骆霞 摄 中新网广西来宾12月26日电 (吴骆霞)"我们建成了全国最完整的制糖及综合利用全产业链，真正实现了 将一根甘蔗'吃干榨尽'。"广西来宾市兴宾区区长蓝海鹏26日在新闻发布会上介绍，兴宾区地区生产总 值于2024年突破500亿元，其中以糖业为核心的循环经济产业集群产值超过120亿元。 "吃干榨净"的背后，是坚实的科技支撑。兴宾区大力推广糖料蔗生产水肥一体化技术，覆盖面积达39万 亩，并创新"滴滴农机"服务平台，提升机械化水平，获评"全国主要农作物生产全程机械化示范县"。同 时，该区累计培育了125家科技型中小企业和49家国家高新技术企业，为产业升级注入创新动力。 从单一的制糖到百花齐放的产业集群，兴宾区通过深耕"一根甘蔗"，走出了一条资源充分利用、产业循 环发展、效益持续倍增的特色之路。这根甜蜜的甘蔗，正为当地经济带来持久而强劲的绿色动能。(完) 【编辑:张令旗】 作为全国最大的县级糖料蔗生产基地，来宾市兴宾区甘蔗种植面积达126万亩。如今，蔗糖仅是产业链 的起点。榨糖后的蔗渣用于发电或制成环保餐具，废蜜用于生产酵母和酒精，滤泥则变为有机肥。产业 链的不断延伸，让传统糖业焕发新生。 宁 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rebounded with a weekly increase of about 3.87%. The market focus has shifted to the sugarcane production in the Northern Hemisphere. India's sugar - crushing season started smoothly in the early stage, while Thailand's sugar production decreased year - on - year. In the domestic market, the industrial inventory is in a seasonal growth trend. Driven by the rising futures price, the spot price increased. With low inventories at the market terminal and among traders, the price increase stimulated restocking sentiment. As the market gradually enters the consumption peak season, trading volume has picked up. With the interaction between domestic and international markets, the sugar price is expected to continue to rebound in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rebounded this week, with a weekly increase of about 3.87% [5]. - **Market Outlook**: The market focus has shifted to the sugarcane production in the Northern Hemisphere. As of December 24, 2025, in Thailand's 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 11.5321 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.54%; the sugar production was 1.0005 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.28%. In the domestic market, the industrial inventory is in a seasonal growth trend. As of now, all 73 sugar mills in Guangxi and 35 sugar mills in Yunnan (5 more than the same period last year) have started crushing. Driven by the rising futures price, the spot price increased, and trading volume picked up. The sugar price is expected to continue to rebound in the short term [5]. - **Future Focus Factors**: Domestic new sugar crushing situation and demand [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Sugar Market**: The price of the US Sugar March contract increased this week, with a weekly increase of about 3.03%. As of December 16, 2025, the non - commercial net short position of raw sugar futures was 157,649 lots, a decrease of 24,913 lots from the previous week [12]. - **International Raw Sugar Spot Price**: This week, the international raw sugar spot price was 14.23 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.58 cents per pound from last week [16]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar Futures**: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract rebounded this week, with a weekly increase of about 3.87%. This week, the net position of the top 20 in the sugar futures was - 68,227 lots, and the Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts were 5,038 [19][26]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar Contract Spread**: This week, the spread between the Zhengzhou Sugar 5 - 9 contracts was - 6 yuan per ton, and the spot - Zhengzhou Sugar basis was + 155 yuan per ton [30]. - **Spot Market**: As of December 26, the new sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,440 yuan per ton, and the sugar price in Nanning was 5,380 yuan per ton [36]. - **Imported Sugar Cost and Profit**: This week, the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 1,263 yuan per ton, a decrease of 122 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota was 58 yuan per ton, a decrease of 18 yuan per ton from last week. The estimated profit of Thai sugar within the quota was 1,123 yuan per ton, a decrease of 22 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota was - 4 yuan per ton, a decrease of 52 yuan per ton from last week [42]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - Side - Production Increase**: As of the end of October 2025, the national sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar - making season was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons, an increase of 12.03% [46]. - **Supply - Side - Industrial Inventory**: No specific data analysis provided. - **Supply - Side - Imported Sugar Quantity**: In November 2025, China's sugar import volume was 440,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.08% and a month - on - month decrease of 310,000 tons. From January to November 2025, the cumulative sugar import volume was 4.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.74% [51]. - **Demand - Side - Sugar Sales Rate**: No specific data analysis provided. - **Demand - Side - Monthly Output of Refined Sugar and Soft Drinks**: In November 2025, China's monthly output of refined sugar was 1.303 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. The monthly output of soft drinks was 10.457 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4% [59]. 3.4 Option and Stock - Related Market - **Option Market**: No specific data analysis provided. - **Stock Market - Nanning Sugar Industry**: No specific data analysis provided.

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report [1] - Date: December 26, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - New York raw sugar futures rebounded on Wednesday, with the主力 March contract up 0.66% to 15.30 cents per pound. London ICE white sugar futures also rose, with the主力 March contract up 0.76% to $435.20 per ton. The forecast of a 5% decrease in sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in the 2026/27 season boosted sugar prices, but raw sugar remains in a sideways consolidation [7]. - Zhengzhou sugar's主力 contract fluctuated narrowly. The 05 contract closed at 5,269 yuan per ton, up 54 yuan or 1.04%, with a reduction of 10,734 positions. Domestic new sugar prices remained flat. The rumor of sugar storage has no further news, and Zhengzhou sugar may lack upward momentum without more positive stimuli. The 01 contract has a negative basis, which is favorable for delivery, and it faces greater pressure to continue rising without more positives [8]. Group 4: Market Review and Trading Suggestions Futures Market Quotes | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Open Interest | Increase/Decrease | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SR601 | 5,364 yuan/ton | 33 | 0.62% | 23,794 | -4,556 | | SR605 | 5,269 yuan/ton | 54 | 1.04% | 455,396 | -10,734 | | US Sugar 03 | 15.30 cents/pound | 0.10 | 0.66% | 434,178 | -5,537 | | US Sugar 05 | 14.89 cents/pound | 0.07 | 0.47% | 197,454 | 120 | [7] Market Analysis - New York raw sugar futures rebounded on Wednesday, and London ICE white sugar futures also rose. The forecast of a 5% decrease in sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in the 2026/27 season supported sugar prices, and raw sugar is in a sideways trend [7]. - Zhengzhou sugar's主力 contract fluctuated narrowly. The 05 contract closed higher with reduced positions. Domestic new sugar prices remained stable. Without more positive news about the rumored sugar storage, Zhengzhou sugar may lack upward impetus. The 01 contract has a negative basis, and it is difficult to rise further without more positives [8]. Group 5: Industry News - Agricultural consultancy Safras & Mercado predicts that sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in the 2026/27 season will be 38 million tons, a 5% decrease from the previous season. Brazil's total sugar production in the 2026/27 season is expected to be 41.8 million tons, lower than the previous year's 43.5 million tons. The region's cane crushing volume is expected to reach 600 million tons, slightly higher than the previous year's 595 million tons. The proportion of cane used for sugar production is expected to drop to 47% from 49% in the 2025/26 season [9]. - From December 23 - 24, two new sugar mills started operation in Yunnan. This week, 2 - 3 more are expected to start. As of now, 35 sugar mills have started operation in the 2025/26 season in Yunnan, 5 more than the same period last year, with an expected cane - crushing capacity of 123,200 tons per day, an increase of 12,600 tons per day [9]. - The Philippine Department of Agriculture announced on the 21st that the import ban on sugar will be extended until December 2026 to protect the domestic sugar industry and stabilize market supply and demand. The recovery of domestic raw sugar production is the main reason for this policy adjustment. The department will strengthen the supervision of local sugar mills to ensure the accuracy of refined sugar inventory data [9]. Group 6: Data Overview - The report provides charts on spot price trends, 2605 contract basis, SR5 - 9 spread, Brazilian raw sugar import profit, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, Brazilian real exchange rate, and the trading volume and open interest of the top 20 seats of Zhengzhou sugar's主力 contract, with data sources mainly from Wind and Jianxin Futures Research and Development Department [11][14][19]