1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract decreased by about 0.4%. Domestically, the price trend is different from that abroad. The opening of the profit window for out - of - quota imports will release import pressure and suppress sugar prices. However, the summer consumption peak and the restocking demand of the food and beverage industry provide some support. Internationally, the good supply prospects of major sugar - producing countries in Asia and the year - on - year increase in Brazil's exports suppress the raw sugar price, but Pakistan's plan to import 500,000 tons and the decrease in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in late June provide short - term support. Overall, the domestic sugar price fluctuates with the raw sugar price, but the domestic demand recovery makes it stronger than the foreign market. In the later stage, both supply and demand are strong, and price fluctuations will intensify. [5] - It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract. Future factors to focus on include consumption and the exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar. [5] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract price decreased by about 0.4% this week. Internationally, the supply is expected to be loose, but there is short - term support. Domestically, the import pressure will be released, but the demand provides support. The domestic sugar price fluctuates with the raw sugar price and is stronger than the foreign market. Later, both supply and demand will be strong, and price fluctuations will intensify. [5] - It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract. Future factors to focus on are consumption and the exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar. [5] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market** - The price of the US Sugar 10 - month contract decreased by about 0.67% this week. As of July 9, 2025, the non - commercial net position of ICE raw sugar remained unchanged from the previous period, and the futures settlement price of NYBOT No. 11 sugar increased by 2.67% month - on - month. [8] - The international raw sugar spot price increased. As of July 4, 2025, the international spot price of raw sugar was 16.72 cents per pound, a month - on - month increase of 4.57%. [11] - This week, the top 20 net positions in the white sugar futures were - 19,355 lots, and the Zhengzhou Sugar warehouse receipts were 22,744. [17] - **Spot Market** - As of July 11, the sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 6,120 yuan per ton, and the spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,895 yuan per ton. [21] - As of July 8, 2025, the estimated in - quota import price index of Brazilian sugar was 4,457 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.67%; the estimated out - of - quota import price index of Brazilian sugar was 5,662 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%. The estimated out - of - quota import processing price of Thai sugar (50% tariff) was 5,715 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%; the estimated in - quota import processing price of Thai sugar was 4,498 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66%. [23] - As of last week, the in - quota profit of imported Brazilian sugar was 1,476 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.93%; the out - of - quota profit of imported Brazilian sugar was 271 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 15.81%. The in - quota profit of imported Thai sugar was 1,435 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.99%; the out - of - quota profit of imported Thai sugar was 218 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 20.44%. [28] 3.3. Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side** - As of the end of May 2025, the 2024/25 sugar - making season had ended. The national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons, or 12.03%. [32] - As of May 30, 2025, the industrial inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 322,100 tons. [36] - In May 2025, China imported 350,000 tons of sugar, a significant increase of 220,000 tons from April and a surge of 1954.9% year - on - year. However, from January to May 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were only 630,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 50.1%. [40] - **Demand Side** - The cumulative national sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.521 million tons, or 23.07%. The cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year. [44] - From January to May 2025, the cumulative output of refined sugar was 9.066 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. The cumulative output of soft drinks was 74.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.19%. [49] 3.4. Option and Stock Market - **Option Market** - The implied volatility of at - the - money options for white sugar this week is presented in the chart of the implied volatility of the underlying of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract, but specific data is not given in the text. [50] - **Stock Market** - The chart of the price - to - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry is provided, but specific data is not given in the text. [55]

Group 1 - The Kenyan government has announced a temporary closure of all sugar factories in the western highlands and lowlands for three months starting from July 11 [1]

Core Insights - The sugar production in Guangxi for the 2024-2025 season is projected to reach 6.465 million tons, an increase of 283,600 tons year-on-year, with the sugarcane planting area expanding to 11.35 million acres, up by 110,000 acres, reflecting ongoing technological innovation and transformation in the sugar industry [1] - China is a significant producer and consumer of sugar, with an annual production of approximately 10 million tons, accounting for 5.6% of global output, while the consumption ranges from 15 to 16 million tons, indicating a supply gap that needs to be filled through imports [1] - Guangxi, as the largest sugarcane planting base and main sugar production area in China, contributes around 60% of the national sugarcane planting area and sugar production, playing a crucial role in ensuring national sugar supply security [1] Industry Transformation - Historically, the sugar industry's profits were concentrated in the crude processing of "white sugar," characterized by a short industrial chain and low added value. Guangxi is breaking this dependency by developing deep processing of sugarcane and comprehensive utilization of by-products, leading to a diversified development of the sugar industry [2] - The utilization rates of sugarcane by-products in Guangxi have reached 100% for bagasse, molasses, and filter mud, while the comprehensive utilization rate of cane leaves has surpassed 40%, indicating a shift from a raw material-oriented approach to a full-chain value enhancement [2] - The sugar industry in Guangxi is not limited to agriculture but is integrated into regional economic planning, promoting deep collaboration among agriculture, industry, culture, tourism, and technology [2] Cultural and Economic Integration - Guangxi is leveraging its "sugar culture" to develop cultural tourism projects, such as establishing "Sugar Museums" and "Cane Harvest Festivals," attracting urban tourists to experience sugar production, thereby enhancing the emotional value and outreach of traditional sugar industry [3] - The region's proximity to Vietnam provides a natural advantage for cross-border agricultural cooperation, with Guangxi actively promoting a new cross-border model of "Vietnamese sugarcane planting + Guangxi sugar processing," effectively alleviating domestic sugar supply tensions and enhancing regional integration [3] - The quantity of sugarcane imported from Vietnam is expected to nearly double in the 2024-2025 season, reflecting Guangxi's proactive integration into international agricultural division of labor under the RCEP framework [3] High-Quality Development - The high-quality development of Guangxi's sugar industry represents a significant exploration of the modern agricultural path characterized by "technology + green + integration," transitioning from a "sweet economy" to a "strong industry" [4] - This transformation not only boosts farmers' income and rural revitalization but also provides a "Guangxi model" for agricultural transformation across the country, positioning sugarcane as a source of innovation for the future sugar industry [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoint - The report provides an overview of the sugar market, including price data, macro and industry news, and supply - demand forecasts for domestic and international markets [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Fundamental Tracking - The price of raw sugar is 16.15 cents per pound, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.1; the mainstream spot price is 6040 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan year - on - year; the futures main contract price is 5747 yuan per ton, down 7 yuan year - on - year [1] - The 91 spread is 158 yuan per ton, up 2 yuan year - on - year; the 15 spread is 45 yuan per ton, down 2 yuan year - on - year; the mainstream spot basis is 293 yuan per ton, down 3 yuan year - on - year [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - Pakistan has approved the import of 500,000 tons of sugar; the MIX in the central - southern region of Brazil has increased significantly year - on - year; the monsoon precipitation in India is higher than the long - period average (LPA) [1] - Brazil exported 3.36 million tons of sugar in June, a 5% year - on - year increase; China imported 350,000 tons of sugar in May [1] 3. Domestic Market - CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season will be 11.16 million tons, consumption will be 15.8 million tons, and imports will be 5 million tons; for the 25/26 season, production will be 11.2 million tons, consumption 15.9 million tons, and imports 5 million tons [2] - As of the end of May in the 24/25 season, the national sugar production was 11.16 million tons (+1.2 million tons), cumulative sales were 8.11 million tons (+1.52 million tons), and the cumulative sales rate was 72.7% [2] - As of the end of May in the 24/25 season, China imported 2.1 million tons of sugar (-1.04 million tons) [2] 4. International Market - ISO predicts a global sugar supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 season (previously 4.88 million tons) [2] - As of June 16 in the 25/26 season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 14 percentage points year - on - year, and the cumulative sugar production was 9.4 million tons (-1.61 million tons), with the cumulative MIX up 2.12 percentage points year - on - year [2] - As of May 15 in the 24/25 season, India's sugar production was 25.74 million tons (-5.8 million tons) [2] - In the 24/25 season, Thailand's cumulative sugar production was 10.08 million tons (+1.27 million tons) [2] 5. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of sugar is 0, with a range of [-2, 2], indicating a neutral view [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company is currently involved in a legal dispute with Guangxi Siyuan Agricultural Development Co., Ltd., with significant financial implications for its future profits [1][2][3]. Group 1: Legal Proceedings - The lawsuit initiated by Guangxi Siyuan against the company and its subsidiary, Dongjiang Sugar Factory, began in April 2019, with a counterclaim filed by the company in August 2019 [2]. - The case has gone through multiple court rulings, with the latest judgment being a second-instance decision that has upheld certain aspects of the previous rulings while modifying others [4]. - The total amount involved in the litigation includes 4.5621 million yuan for the original lawsuit and 15.2055 million yuan for the counterclaim [1]. Group 2: Financial Impact - The company has recognized a provision for expected liabilities of 4.5621 million yuan in accordance with accounting standards, and an additional provision of 1.4332 million yuan has been made, which is expected to reduce the company's total profit for 2025 by approximately 1.4332 million yuan [1][6]. - The ongoing litigation and its outcomes present uncertainties regarding the company's future profits, and the company plans to apply for a retrial of the case [1][6]. Group 3: Court Rulings - The recent court ruling includes various financial obligations for the company, such as compensating Guangxi Siyuan for losses related to unharvested sugarcane and other damages, totaling significant amounts [4]. - Specific amounts ordered for compensation include 85,200.57 yuan for unharvested sugarcane, 1,346,682 yuan for other damages, and 8,515,166 yuan for production shortfalls [4].

Core Insights - Guangxi Fantang Technology Co., Ltd. has launched the upgraded Fantang E-commerce Platform 2.0, enhancing supply chain efficiency in the sugar industry and innovating the domestic sugar circulation system [1][2] - The platform aims to meet diverse customer needs through various purchasing and sales models, contributing to the construction of a unified national sugar market [1] Group 1: Platform Features - The Fantang E-commerce Platform 2.0 includes five online purchasing and sales models: spot listing, spot auction, category price difference, capacity pre-sale, and Fantang basis zone, addressing the diverse needs of industry participants [1][2] - The platform has expanded its product categories from Guangxi white sugar to include Yunnan sugar, Zhanjiang sugar, beet sugar, and various by-products, enhancing its integrated service capabilities [2] Group 2: Supply Chain Management - The new platform addresses long-standing issues in Guangxi white sugar warehousing, such as high circulation risks and unclear rights for social handling and delivery, by offering comprehensive warehousing and financial services [2] - Services include procurement on behalf of clients, deferred settlement, storage and custody of goods, warehouse receipt handling, quality analysis, and financing services, aiming to standardize warehousing management and improve supply chain efficiency [2] Group 3: Market Trends - The domestic sugar market has undergone significant changes, with increased interconnectivity between domestic and international markets, leading to heightened price volatility and greater demands for risk management capabilities [3] - The Fantang E-commerce Platform is positioned as a crucial link between industry participants, continuously innovating its service system to adapt to evolving market demands and enhance industry development [3]

期货研究报告 | 农产品组 行业研究报告 当前市场对 25/26 榨季各主产国的供应前景均较乐观，熊市周期下原糖长期仍有下行压力，短期需关注糖醇价差收窄后巴西制糖比 情况，中期关注巴西压榨进度及印度出口政策，原糖下半年存在阶段性反弹机会。国产糖由于产销进度偏快，短期存在支撑，但三 季度进口放量预期下，郑糖反弹空间受到压制…… 增产周期未改，市场仍有反复 农产品组行业研究报告 本期分析研究员 邓绍瑞 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z0019724 联系人 白旭宇 从业资格号：F03114139 薛钧元 从业资格号：F03114096 华泰期货研究院农产品研究 2025 年 7 月 6 日 期货研究报告 | 白糖半年报 2025-7-6 增产周期未改，市场仍有反复 研究院 农产品组 研究员 邓绍瑞 010-64405663 dengshaorui@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 lixin@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z0019724 联系人 白旭宇 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Sugar Market Weekly Report - External Disturbances, Short - term Volatility Intensifies [2] - Report Date: July 4, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Xin [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - This week, the price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract decreased by about 0.4%. Internationally, the approaching monsoon season improved the outlook of major Asian sugar - producing countries, and the expectation of loose supply suppressed the raw sugar price. Domestically, the opening of the import window increased import pressure, while the summer consumption peak provided some support. Overall, the domestic sugar price was stronger than the external market due to rising demand. In the later period, both supply and demand will be strong, and price volatility will intensify. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract. Future factors to focus on include consumption and the export of Brazilian and Indian sugar [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Market Analysis**: The price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract decreased by about 0.4% this week. Internationally, the monsoon season improved the supply outlook in Asia, and Brazilian shipping data showed an increase in waiting ships and sugar quantity. Domestically, import pressure increased, but summer consumption provided support. The domestic market was stronger than the external market, and later, price volatility will intensify [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract [5] - **Future Focus**: Consumption situation, Brazilian and Indian sugar exports [5] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The price of ICE US Sugar 10 - month contract decreased by about 1.92% this week. As of July 2, 2025, the non - commercial net position of ICE raw sugar was unchanged from the previous period, and the futures settlement price of NYBOT No. 11 sugar decreased by 0.76%. The international raw sugar spot price decreased by 1.38% as of June 27, 2025. The top 20 net position of Zhengzhou sugar futures was - 29,497 lots, and the Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts were 23,424 [12][15][21] - **Spot Market**: As of July 4, the sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 6,150 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,880 yuan/ton. As of July 2, 2025, the estimated in - quota import price of Brazilian sugar was 4,318 yuan/ton (down 0.55% week - on - week), and the out - of - quota was 5,480 yuan/ton (down 0.56% week - on - week). The in - quota profit of importing Brazilian sugar was 1,617 yuan/ton (up 0.87% week - on - week), and the out - of - quota profit was 455 yuan/ton (up 4.84% week - on - week). Similar data were provided for Thai sugar [25][28][34] 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side**: By the end of May 2025, the 2024/25 sugar - making season had ended, with a national sugar production of 1.11621 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 119,890 tons (12.03% increase). As of May 30, 2025, the industrial inventory was 304,830 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32,210 tons. In May 2025, China imported 350,000 tons of sugar, a significant increase compared to April and a 1954.9% surge year - on - year, but the cumulative import from January to May was 630,000 tons, a 50.1% decrease year - on - year [38][42][46] - **Demand Side**: The cumulative national sugar sales were 811,380 tons, a year - on - year increase of 152,100 tons (23.07% increase), and the cumulative sales rate was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster year - on - year. From January to May 2025, the cumulative output of refined sugar was 906,600 tons (a 4.9% year - on - year increase), and the cumulative output of soft drinks was 7.46 billion tons (a 25.19% year - on - year increase) [50][55] 3.4 Option and Stock - related Market - **Option Market**: Information about the implied volatility of the at - the - money option of sugar this week was presented, but specific data was not fully described [56] - **Stock Market**: Information about the price - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry was presented, but specific data was not fully described [60]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and Fats: Oscillating with a bullish bias [4] - Protein Meal: Oscillating [4] - Corn and Starch: Oscillating [4] - Live Pigs: Oscillating with a bullish bias [5] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [6] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating [9] - Cotton: Oscillating [10] - Sugar: Oscillating [11] - Pulp: Oscillating with a bearish bias [12] - Logs: Oscillating with a bearish bias [13] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple agricultural products. In the short - term, the prices of live pigs and oils and fats may show a bullish trend, while protein meal, corn, and other products will oscillate. In the long - term, the supply of live pigs may face pressure, and the sugar market may decline due to expected supply increases [2][4][5]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - Yesterday, the market oscillated and showed differentiation. The market should continue to monitor changes in the US biodiesel policy. Due to technical buying and optimistic demand expectations for soybean oil in the US biofuel industry, US soybeans rose on Wednesday, and domestic oils oscillated and showed differentiation yesterday, with palm oil being relatively strong. In the future, oils may continue to oscillate with a bullish bias, but the sustainability of the upward trend should be noted [4]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - The price rose first and then fell, continuing to oscillate. Internationally, the US "Big and Beautiful" Act was passed, and US soybeans rebounded from the lower limit of the range. Domestically, soybean meal inventories continued to accumulate, and supply pressure may lead to a weakening of spot prices. In the long - term, protein meal may be supported by cost and oscillate in the short - term [4]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - The futures market remained weak, and the spot market stabilized. The current fundamentals of the corn market are affected by factors such as rainfall, changes in supply rhythm, and wheat substitution. The short - term trend is oscillating [4][5]. 3.1.4 Live Pigs - Affected by the expected supply - side reform in the industry, the live pig futures market rebounded. In the short - term, pig prices have temporarily changed from weak to strong, but in the long - term, there is still supply pressure [2][5]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - Rubber prices continued to fluctuate with commodities. The current fundamentals of natural rubber are relatively stable, with limited price changes, and the market is waiting for new variables [6][8]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - The weak raw materials dragged the market down. The current fundamentals of synthetic rubber are not significant, and the market mainly follows the fluctuations of natural rubber and overall commodities. The market may continue to decline, and attention should be paid to the previous low support [9]. 3.1.7 Cotton - Low inventory supports cotton prices. Although there are expectations of increased production in the new season, the current low inventory structure is expected to be beneficial to cotton prices, and the short - term price may be relatively resistant to decline [10]. 3.1.8 Sugar - The external market continued to weaken, and the domestic - foreign price difference widened. Domestically, there is an expectation of concentrated arrivals of imported sugar, and the sugar price is expected to be under pressure [11]. 3.1.9 Pulp - The futures market continued to rebound, but the spot market did not follow. The supply - demand situation of pulp is weak, and the futures market is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [12]. 3.1.10 Logs - The fundamentals changed little, and the market oscillated. The log market is in a traditional off - season, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern is expected to be weak on both sides [13]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists the data monitoring of multiple varieties, including the prices of live pigs, oils and fats, cotton, etc., but does not provide detailed analysis in this part [16][47][66][105][118][133][152]. 3.3 Rating Standards - The report provides rating standards such as "bullish", "oscillating with a bullish bias", "oscillating", "oscillating with a bearish bias", and "bearish", and the time period is the next 2 - 12 weeks [165].

Core Viewpoint - Brazil's sugar production is lagging, but the sugar-ethanol ratio is high, leading to strong expectations of decreased production for the new season in the overseas market [1] Group 1: Brazil's Sugar Production - As of the end of May, Brazil's Central-South region has processed 76.71 million tons of sugarcane, a decrease of 20.24% year-on-year, with a total sugar production of 3.989 million tons, down 22.68% year-on-year [1] - The sugar-ethanol ratio in Brazil is high, with the mandatory blending ratio of ethanol in gasoline increased from 27% to 30% [1] - For the 2024/25 season, Brazil's sugar production is expected to increase by 5% to 46 million tons [1] Group 2: Global Sugar Market Dynamics - The Indian National Cooperative Sugar Factories Federation predicts that India's sugar ending stock for the 2024/25 season will be between 4.8 to 5 million tons, sufficient to meet domestic consumption needs in October-November 2025, despite a decline in current production [1] - Thailand's sugar production for the 2024/25 season is expected to rise to 10.39 million tons [1] - The early arrival of monsoon rains in India is anticipated to lead to a strong recovery in sugar production for the 2025/26 season, reaching around 35 million tons [1] Group 3: Domestic Market Conditions - As of the end of May, Guangxi has sold 4.6453 million tons of sugar, an increase of 537,100 tons year-on-year, with a sales-to-production ratio of 71.85%, up 5.39 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The domestic market has opened a profit window for sugar imports outside of quotas, although the rebound in prices is limited [1] - In May, sugar imports totaled 350,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 33.31% [1]