Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Soda Ash**: Supply is at a high level due to the resumption of maintenance - affected enterprises, with production reaching 75.36 million tons in the week of January 8, 2026, a week - on - week increase of 8.11%. Demand is weak as downstream float glass production lines have cold - repairs, and overall shipment rate dropped to 78.18%. Factory inventories have accumulated significantly, reaching 157.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.93%. Overall supply - demand is difficult to improve, and the 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1150 - 1280 [6]. - **Glass**: Supply is decreasing as two production lines had cold - repairs, with the average capacity utilization rate at 75.63%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.03 percentage points. Some regions saw improved sales due to market sentiment, and overall enterprise inventories decreased slightly to 5551.8 million heavy cases, a week - on - week decrease of 2.37%. However, high inventories still suppress the market, and the 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1070 - 1180 [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - week Views and Strategies - **Soda Ash**: Supply increased, demand was weak, inventories accumulated, and the 2605 contract is expected to range from 1150 - 1280 [6]. - **Glass**: Supply decreased, inventories decreased slightly, but high inventories still pressured the market, and the 2605 contract is expected to range from 1070 - 1180 [9]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure - **Soda Ash**: Upstream includes natural soda mines, raw salt, synthetic ammonia, etc.; downstream includes agricultural fertilizers, glass, and daily detergents [12]. - **Flat Glass**: Upstream includes raw materials like quartz sand, limestone, soda ash, and fuels such as natural gas, coal - made gas, and petroleum coke; downstream includes real estate, automotive, and electronics industries [14]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Markets - **Glass**: As of January 9, 2026, the FG main contract closed at 1144, and the North China basis closed at - 124 yuan/ton. The FG5 - 9 spread closed at - 94 yuan/ton [21][29]. - **Soda Ash**: As of January 9, 2026, the SA main contract closed at 1228, and the North China basis closed at 22 yuan/ton. The SA5 - 9 spread closed at - 67 yuan/ton [25][29]. 3.4 Inventory - **Glass**: As of January 8, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 5551.8 million heavy cases, a week - on - week decrease of 2.37%, and an inventory days of 24.1 days, a decrease of 1.5 days from the previous period [9][33]. - **Soda Ash**: As of January 8, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 157.27 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.01 million tons, and a year - on - year increase of 6.93% [6][44]. 3.5 Supply - **Glass**: From January 2 - 8, 2026, the average capacity utilization rate was 75.63%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.03 percentage points, and the output was 105.92 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.32% [9][49]. - **Soda Ash**: As of January 8, 2026, the production was 75.36 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.11%. The theoretical profit of ammonia - soda process was - 57.85 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 39.65%, and that of combined - soda process (double - ton) was - 40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12.68% [6][57][59]. 3.6 Demand - **Glass**: As of December 31, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 8.6 days, a week - on - week decrease of 10.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. Engineering orders are winding down [64]. - **Soda Ash**: As of January 8, 2026, the shipment volume was 58.92 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.99%, and the overall shipment rate was 78.18%, a week - on - week decrease of 26.15 percentage points [6][78].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - The overall situation of pure benzene shows strong supply and weak demand, and it should still be treated weakly; benzene styrene is in the seasonal off - season demand in the first quarter, with obvious demand pressure, and the industry should participate in hedging appropriately [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of December 29, 2026, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu port samples was 300,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.89% and a year - on - year increase of 56.09%; from December 22 to 28, the estimated arrival was about 39,500 tons and the pick - up was about 12,500 tons; 3 out of the statistical storage areas increased and 4 remained stable [1] - As of January 5, 2026, the total inventory of benzene styrene port samples in Jiangsu was 132,300 tons, a decrease of 4.68% from the previous period; the commercial inventory was 77,300 tons, a decrease of 7.20% from the previous period; according to past industry rules, there is a high possibility of seasonal inventory accumulation from January to March [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - The short - term large - denomination certificate of deposit interest rates of some banks have entered the "0 -字头", similar to ordinary fixed deposits [2] - In December 2025, the national consumer price increased by 0.8% year - on - year; China's December CPI annual rate was 0.8%, with an expected 0.9% and a previous value of 0.70% [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Pure benzene fluctuated slightly during the day, with strong upward pressure and a supply - strong and demand - weak state, and is still treated weakly [3] - Benzene styrene fluctuated slightly, with attention paid to the pressure near the 40 - day moving average on the weekly line level; in the first - quarter off - season, it may be boosted by the short - term rebound sentiment of overall commodities, but the demand pressure is still obvious, and the industry should participate in hedging appropriately [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The downstream is still in a low - operation state during the off - season. Pure benzene maintains a deep negative basis and high inventory pressure, and the arrival pressure in China remains. The downstream operation shows differentiation. Styrene's port inventory has not met the original expectation of inventory replenishment, and the operation at the bottom is still slowly recovering. The downstream is in the off - season of operation [1][3] Summary by Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spread - Figures related to pure benzene and styrene's basis and inter - period spread are presented, such as pure benzene's main basis, spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and styrene's main basis, etc [8][13][17] II. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Information about production profits of pure benzene and styrene, and their internal - external spreads are shown, including naphtha processing fee, FOB and CFR price differences in different regions, and import profits [20][21][29] III. Inventory and Operation Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Data on the inventory and operation rates of pure benzene and styrene are provided, like pure benzene's East China port inventory and operation rate, and styrene's East China port inventory, commercial inventory, and operation rate [35][38][40] IV. Operation and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - Information on the operation and production profits of styrene's downstream products (EPS, PS, ABS) is given, including their operation rates and production profits [48][50][52] V. Operation and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Data about the operation and production profits of pure benzene's downstream products (caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, etc.) are presented, including their operation rates and production profits [59][63][71] Market News and Important Data - **Pure Benzene**: The main basis is - 102 yuan/ton (+57), port inventory is 31.80 tons (+1.80 tons), CFR China processing fee is 138 dollars/ton (+5 dollars/ton), FOB Korea processing fee is 130 dollars/ton (+6 dollars/ton), US - Korea spread is 165.8 dollars/ton (-1.0 dollars/ton), and East China spot - M2 spread is - 190 yuan/ton (-10 yuan/ton). Downstream production profits and operation rates vary [1] - **Styrene**: The main basis is 103 yuan/ton (+56 yuan/ton), non - integrated production profit is 138 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton) with expected gradual compression. East China port inventory is 132,300 tons (-6,500 tons), and commercial inventory is 77,300 tons (-6,000 tons). The operation rate is 70.9% (+0.7%) [1] - **Styrene's Downstream Hard Rubber**: EPS production profit is 109 yuan/ton (+65 yuan/ton), PS production profit is - 291 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton), ABS production profit is - 1,074 yuan/ton (-39 yuan/ton). Their operation rates also change [2] Market Analysis - **Pure Benzene**: Upstream, the US turning Venezuelan crude oil into compliant oil supply suppresses oil prices, and attention should be paid to whether the US will take military action against Iran. Pure benzene has a deep negative basis and high inventory pressure. The downstream shows weak performance during the off - season, and the operation is differentiated [3] - **Styrene**: The port inventory has not met the inventory replenishment expectation, the operation at the bottom is still slowly recovering, and the downstream is in the off - season [3] Strategy - **Unilateral**: None - **Basis and Inter - Period**: Do reverse arbitrage on BZ2603 - BZ2605 when the price is high - **Cross - Variety**: Short BZ2603 and long EB2602 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce of China has announced an anti-dumping investigation into imported dichlorodihydrosilane from Japan, effective January 7, 2026, following a formal application from a domestic producer [1][3][5]. Group 1: Investigation Background - The application for the anti-dumping investigation was submitted by Tangshan Sanfu Electronic Materials Co., Ltd., representing the domestic dichlorodihydrosilane industry [3]. - The Ministry of Commerce conducted a review based on the qualifications of the applicant, the product in question, the domestic industry situation, and the impact of the imported product on the domestic industry [3][5]. Group 2: Product and Market Impact - Dichlorodihydrosilane is primarily used in the semiconductor manufacturing process for thin film deposition, including epitaxial films, silicon carbide films, silicon nitride films, silicon oxide films, and polysilicon films [5]. - The product is essential for producing logic chips, memory chips, analog chips, and other types of chips, as well as for synthesizing silicon-based precursors and polysilazane [5]. Group 3: Investigation Findings - Preliminary evidence from the applicant indicates that from 2022 to 2024, the quantity of dichlorodihydrosilane imported from Japan has shown an overall upward trend, while prices have decreased by 31% cumulatively [8]. - The Ministry of Commerce has determined that the dumping of imported products from Japan has caused damage to the domestic industry, leading to the decision to initiate the investigation [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in crude oil prices has positively impacted the overall production costs for the company, particularly in terms of raw material procurement costs [1] Group 1: Impact of Crude Oil Prices - The decrease in crude oil prices has provided a certain benefit to the company's overall production costs [1] - Raw material procurement costs have been alleviated due to the falling oil prices [1] Group 2: Challenges Faced - There is a time lag in the transmission of crude oil price changes to chemical product prices, which has resulted in some pressure on product prices [1] - The recovery in terminal demand has been relatively mild, further putting pressure on product prices [1] Group 3: Strategic Responses - The company is actively leveraging the low oil price window to optimize inventory strategies [1] - There is a plan to moderately increase bulk procurement of economical raw materials [1] - The company is expanding overseas low-cost raw material procurement channels through its Singapore subsidiary, enhancing its resource allocation capabilities domestically and internationally [1] - This strategy aims to further solidify the company's integrated operational advantages [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce announced an anti-dumping investigation into imported dichlorodihydrosilane (DCS) from Japan, which is expected to directly benefit domestic DCS production companies and accelerate the domestic substitution in semiconductor manufacturing [3][4]. Group 1: Policy Impact on Industry Chain - The anti-dumping investigation period is set from July 1, 2024, to June 30, 2025, while the industry damage investigation period spans from January 1, 2022, to June 30, 2025 [3][4]. - This policy is anticipated to promote domestic DCS production and indirectly benefit upstream raw material suppliers [3][4]. Group 2: Beneficiary Classification - Key beneficiaries include midstream core DCS manufacturing companies, upstream raw material suppliers, and downstream application fields such as chip manufacturing and display panels [10]. - Specific companies identified as beneficiaries include: - Midstream: companies like Sanfu Co., and Hoshine Silicon Industry [10]. - Upstream: companies such as Dongyue Group and Jiangsu Huachang Chemical [10]. - Downstream: firms like SMIC and Changjiang Storage [10]. Group 3: Industry Overview - The upstream segment consists of essential raw materials like silicon powder, hydrogen chloride, and hydrogen, which are characterized by high technical barriers [11]. - A critical parameter for production is maintaining metal impurities below 0.1 ppb [11].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce of China has initiated an anti-dumping investigation into imported dichlorodihydrosilane from Japan, with the investigation period set from July 1, 2024, to June 30, 2025, and the industry damage investigation period from January 1, 2022, to June 30, 2025 [1][6]. Group 1 - The investigation is a response to a domestic industry's application, which provided preliminary evidence indicating that the quantity of dichlorodihydrosilane imported from Japan has shown an overall increasing trend from 2022 to 2024, while prices have decreased by 31% cumulatively [6]. - The product in question is primarily used in the chip manufacturing process for thin film deposition, including epitaxial films, silicon carbide films, silicon nitride films, silicon oxide films, and polysilicon films, which are essential for producing logic chips, memory chips, analog chips, and other types of chips [4]. - The investigation is expected to start on January 7, 2026, and typically concludes by January 7, 2027, although it may be extended by six months under special circumstances [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China has initiated an anti-dumping investigation into imports of dichlorosilane from Japan, following a formal application from Tangshan Sanfu Electronic Materials Co., Ltd. [1] Group 1: Investigation Details - The anti-dumping investigation will commence on January 7, 2026, with the dumping investigation period set from July 1, 2024, to June 30, 2025, and the industry damage investigation period from January 1, 2022, to June 30, 2025 [1][12] - The product under investigation is dichlorosilane, also known as dichlorosilane, with the chemical formula SiH2Cl2 [2] Group 2: Product Characteristics and Applications - Dichlorosilane is a colorless, flammable, and toxic gas at room temperature and pressure, with a purity greater than 99% [4] - It is primarily used in the manufacturing of chips, including logic chips, memory chips, and other types, as well as in the synthesis of silicon-based precursors and polysilazane [4] Group 3: Participation and Information Submission - Interested parties must register to participate in the investigation within 20 days from the announcement date, providing necessary information regarding their identity and related product transactions [5] - Information submissions, including comments and questionnaires, must be made electronically through the designated platform and also in written form [9] Group 4: Investigation Process - The Ministry of Commerce may utilize various methods such as questionnaires, sampling, hearings, and on-site verifications to gather information during the investigation [8] - Non-cooperation or failure to provide accurate information may lead to determinations based on available facts and best information [10][11]

Market Performance - On January 6, A-shares saw all three major indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.50% to 4083.67 points, marking a ten-year high [1] - The market's total trading volume exceeded 2.83 trillion yuan, an increase of over 260 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with more than 4100 stocks rising [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index recorded a 13-day consecutive rise, setting a historical record, surpassing the previous 12-day record held for 33 years [1] Sector Performance - The commercial aerospace sector continued to surge, with over ten constituent stocks hitting the daily limit, including Lushin Investment, which achieved six limit-ups in eight days [1] - The brain-computer interface concept maintained its strong performance, with stocks like Sanbo Brain Science and Meihao Medical achieving consecutive limit-ups [1] - The financial sector collectively rose, with Huayin Securities and Dazhihui hitting the daily limit [1] - The intelligent driving sector also showed strength, with multiple stocks like Wanjitech and Luchang Technology hitting the daily limit [1] - The chemical sector saw gains, with stocks such as Zhongtai Chemical and Luhua Technology hitting the daily limit [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector was active, with companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Zijin Mining reaching historical highs [1] Market Outlook - Factors supporting the current bull market remain unchanged, including policy support and a shift of household savings to the capital market, with increasing foreign investment interest in China's technological innovation [2] - Goldman Sachs has recommended overweighting Chinese stocks for 2026, predicting a 15% to 20% annual increase in the Chinese stock market for 2026 and 2027 due to significant valuation discounts compared to global peers [2] - The market is expected to transition from a cross-year trend to a spring offensive, with increased credit issuance in January likely to bring additional funds into the capital market [3] - The overall sentiment suggests that 2026 will be a year of significant opportunities, with expectations of improved market performance and investor sentiment [3] Policy Environment - Future policies may include more proactive fiscal measures and moderately loose monetary policies, with the Federal Reserve expected to continue its rate-cutting cycle, creating favorable conditions for China's central bank [5] - In a declining interest rate environment, equity assets are likely to perform well, and the renminbi is expected to appreciate, attracting more foreign capital into Chinese assets [5] Investor Sentiment - The spring offensive has begun, and investors are encouraged to maintain confidence and patience, focusing on quality stocks or funds to capitalize on the slow bull market opportunities [6] - The number of new A-share accounts has continued to rise, reflecting the market's vitality, with 27.44 million new accounts opened in 2025, a 9.75% increase from 2024 [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 2026 central bank work meeting confirmed a moderately loose monetary policy, emphasizing the "integrated effect" of incremental and stock policies, which provides support for the economy and enhances the attractiveness of RMB assets. However, geopolitical conflicts and Fed policy uncertainty pose potential risks [2]. - In the short term, the stock index is expected to be strong, but there may be a phased correction due to local over - heating. The bond market may need to find a bottom, and if the stock market corrects, it may help the bond market stabilize [5][7][8]. - The shipping index (European line) is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, with risks of insufficient actual cargo volume support. The far - month contract is suppressed by the resumption of navigation and off - season expectations [13]. - For new energy products, lithium carbonate has long - term value support and opportunities to build long positions on dips. Industrial silicon has limited downside space and is suitable for building long positions in far - month contracts. The spot price of polysilicon has risen, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of prices and terminal winning bids [17][19]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, copper prices are in an accelerating upward phase, aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong, zinc may reach a short - term top, nickel - stainless steel may be strong in the short term but with callback risks, tin has limited upside space, and lead is expected to fluctuate [24][25][28]. - In the oilseeds and fats market, oilseeds show a near - strong and far - weak pattern. Fats are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [31][34]. - The asphalt crack spread may be strong in the short term due to supply disruptions [36][37]. - For precious metals, platinum and palladium may face short - term correction risks due to index parameter adjustment, while gold and silver are in an easy - to - rise and hard - to - fall pattern in the short term and are bullish in the medium - to - long term [40][43]. - In the chemical industry, pulp and offset paper prices have risen, and it is advisable to wait and see. LPG is supported in the short term by geopolitics but is under pressure in the long term. PTA - PX and MEG - bottle chips are affected by geopolitical disturbances and cost fluctuations. Methanol is likely to start an upward trend. PP and PE have short - term improvements in fundamentals but face Spring Festival inventory accumulation pressure. Pure benzene - styrene is running strongly, and rubber is expected to fluctuate widely [46][49][52][54][57][60][63][65][70]. - For black commodities, steel prices are expected to fluctuate, iron ore is running strongly, coking coal and coke may rebound, and ferroalloys may be under pressure to suppress the upward rhythm [80][82][84][86]. - In the agricultural and soft commodities market, cotton is affected by supply - demand expectations and policy adjustments, sugar is in a strong - side - oscillating pattern, rubber is expected to fluctuate widely, apples are running strongly, dates are in a low - level oscillation, and logs follow an interval trading strategy [90][92][96][99][101][103]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, using tools such as reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The Fed's policy and the Venezuelan situation may affect the market. The internal "policy integration" and external geopolitical disturbances create structural opportunities in the market [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: Before the release of the US December ADP employment data, the US dollar index is oscillating. The RMB is relatively strong, and the central bank shows an intention to stabilize the exchange rate. Export enterprises are advised to lock in forward exchange settlement at 7.02, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at 6.96 [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index is strong, but there may be a phased correction due to local over - heating. The short - term is expected to be strong [5][7]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market is under pressure. If the stock market corrects, it may help the bond market stabilize. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and try to buy on dips in the short term [7][8]. - **Container Shipping (European Line)**: The shipping index futures rose on January 2. The market is in a game between pre - Spring Festival and price increase implementation. The short - term is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the actual cargo volume support and resumption of navigation [9][11][13]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures limit up, and the spot trading weakens. In the long - term, there is value support, and it is advisable to build long positions on dips [15][17]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The prices of downstream products have risen. Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand weak situation but has a low - risk long - position value. The spot price of polysilicon has risen, and attention should be paid to price sustainability and terminal winning bids [18][19]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price is in an accelerating upward phase. The futures market has net capital inflows. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 90000 - 100000 range and be cautious about new long positions above 100000 [22][24]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong, alumina is expected to oscillate, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and strong. The core factors include funds and supply - demand expectations [25][26]. - **Zinc**: It may reach a short - term top. The short - term is expected to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the pressure at 24600 [27]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: It rose strongly. The short - term may be strong due to Indonesian supply policy expectations, but there are callback risks [27][28]. - **Tin**: It is not recommended to short in the short term, and the upside space is limited. It is expected to be volatile and strong before the sentiment fades [29][30]. - **Lead**: It rose with the sector. It is expected to oscillate, and the price may fall after the sentiment fades [30]. Oilseeds and Fats - **Oilseeds**: It shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. The supply pressure in Brazil next year suppresses the main contract, but there is a short - term supply gap. It is recommended to hold a 35 positive spread [31][33]. - **Fats**: It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. The fundamentals affect the price ratio, and attention should be paid to production areas and biodiesel information [34]. Energy and Oil & Gas - **Asphalt**: The supply is disturbed, and the short - term crack spread may be strong. The conflict between the US and Venezuela may affect the supply of heavy - crude oil and thus the price of asphalt [36][37]. Precious Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: They rose strongly. In the short term, beware of the selling pressure caused by index parameter adjustment. In the medium - to - long term, the price center is expected to rise [40][41]. - **Gold & Silver**: They are approaching the previous high. In the short term, it is easy to rise and hard to fall. In the medium - to - long term, they are bullish, and corrections are opportunities to add long positions [42][43]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The spot price of pulp has risen, and the futures price is affected by spot support and overall commodity sentiment. The price of offset paper futures is rising, and it is advisable to wait and see [45][46]. - **LPG**: It is supported by geopolitics in the short term but is under long - term pressure. Attention should be paid to overseas events and domestic PDH maintenance [47][49]. - **PTA - PX**: It is affected by geopolitical disturbances and cost fluctuations. PTA is expected to have a tight supply - demand pattern in the first half of 2026, and PX is expected to be in short supply in the second quarter [50][52]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: It rebounded due to geopolitical speculation. The demand side is under pressure, and the inventory is high. The rebound is likely to be phased [53][54]. - **Methanol**: It is likely to start an upward trend. The change in inventory accumulation expectations is the main factor, and attention should be paid to the restart of Fude and the reduction of Iranian imports [55][57]. - **PP**: The short - term fundamentals have improved, and the Spring Festival inventory accumulation pressure exists. It is expected to oscillate [58][60]. - **PE**: It is rising from the bottom. The supply pressure is relieved, but the demand support is insufficient. It is in a supply - demand reduction pattern [61][63]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: It is running strongly, affected by geopolitical pricing and capital allocation. The fundamentals are improving but are still in the off - season. Do not chase the high [64][65]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate widely. The short - term may be strong, but there are callback risks. Pay attention to the pressure levels of different contracts and the RU - BR spread [66][70][72]. - **Soda Ash & Glass & Caustic Soda**: Soda ash has a surplus expectation, glass has high inventory and cold - repair expectations, and caustic soda is in a wide - range oscillation [73][75][76]. - **Propylene**: It is supported by cost in the short term, but the upside space is limited due to the loose supply - demand situation [77][78]. Black Commodities - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The prices are expected to oscillate. The fundamentals of steel products have little contradiction, but there is a possibility of inventory accumulation in the future [80]. - **Iron Ore**: It is running strongly. The high supply and rigid demand balance each other, and the price is affected by macro expectations [81][82]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: They rebounded strongly. The inventory structure of coking coal has improved, and the supply pressure in January may ease. The coking profit of coke is under short - term pressure, and attention should be paid to the downstream steel mill's复产 elasticity [83][84]. - **Ferroalloys**: They rose due to electricity price news. The production has increased, and the inventory is accumulating. The upward rhythm may be suppressed, but the downside space is limited [85][86][87]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Cotton**: The short - term is affected by supply - demand expectations and policy adjustment expectations. Pay attention to the cotton planting industry chain conference in Xinjiang and beware of price corrections. It is recommended to build long positions on dips [89][90][91]. - **Sugar**: It is in a strong - side - oscillating pattern. Pay attention to the trend of raw sugar [92][94]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate widely. The short - term may be strong, but there are callback risks. Pay attention to the pressure levels of different contracts and the RU - BR spread [94][96][98]. - **Apple**: It is running strongly. The shortage of delivery products is expected to push up the prices of near - and far - month contracts [99][100]. - **Date**: It is in a low - level oscillation. The short - term price may be stable, and the long - term supply is abundant, and the price is under pressure [101][102]. - **Log**: It is oscillating. The 03 contract can adopt an interval trading strategy of buying low and selling high in the 760 - 790 range [103][104].