Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) reported that as of June 2025, the broad money supply (M2) reached 330.29 trillion yuan, growing by 8.3% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 113.95 trillion yuan, up by 4.6% [2] - In the first half of 2025, new RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan, and the total social financing scale increased by 22.83 trillion yuan, which is 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2] - The PBOC plans to conduct a 14 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system [4] Group 2 - China's total goods trade in the first half of 2025 was 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, with exports at 13 trillion yuan (up 7.2%) and imports at 8.79 trillion yuan (down 2.7%) [4] - In June 2025, the monthly trade volume reached 3.85 trillion yuan, marking a 5.2% increase, with exports of 2.34 trillion yuan (up 7.2%) and imports of 1.51 trillion yuan (up 2.3%) [4] Group 3 - China Salt Chemical Corporation reported a 5.76% decrease in revenue for the first half of 2025, totaling 5.998 billion yuan, with a net profit decline of 88.04% to 52.71 million yuan [9] - Qianfang Technology expects a net profit increase of 1125.99% to 1534.65% for the first half of 2025 [11] - Huahong Technology anticipates a net profit growth of 3047.48% to 3721.94% for the same period [12] - Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation projects a net profit increase of 1628.83% to 2315.27% for the first half of 2025 [21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector has shown better performance than the market, with a year-to-date increase of 8.9%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.2 percentage points [4][16] - The global potash market is characterized by oligopoly, with major producers controlling supply and prices. Recent production cuts by key players are expected to sustain potash market conditions [5][27] - Phosphate supply remains tight, with stable prices and potential improvements in export opportunities as demand increases [5][27] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - Policies are expected to improve supply-demand dynamics in the chemical sector, with a focus on cyclical investment opportunities [13] - The chemical industry is entering a new long-term prosperity cycle, driven by improved fundamentals and reduced risks [13][14] 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index increased by 1.5% during the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.4 percentage points [16] - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has increased by 8.9%, significantly outperforming both the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices [16][18] 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 298 stocks rose while 123 fell during the week [25] - The top performers included companies like Shangwei New Materials (+72.9%) and Hongbo New Materials (+24.7%) [25][26] 4. Key News and Company Announcements - The autumn fertilizer preparation has begun, with a focus on investment opportunities in potash and phosphate fertilizers [27] - Major potash producers have announced production cuts, which are expected to tighten supply and support prices [5][27] - Phosphate prices remain stable, with potential for improved export conditions as demand increases [5][27] 5. Product Price Changes - The report highlights significant price increases in various chemical products, with notable gains in dimethylamine (+16.7%) and fatty alcohol (+8.2%) [6] - Conversely, urea prices have seen a significant decline (-15%) [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Price Information**: On July 11, 2025, the price of 5mm large - plate glass from various manufacturers showed different trends. For example, the price of 5mm large - plate glass from Shache Anquan remained at 1160, while the low - price of 5mm large - plate glass in Shache increased by 17.0 week - on - week and 19.0 day - on - day. The FG09 contract price was 1086, with a week - on - week increase of 60.0 and a day - on - day increase of 3.0 [1] - **Profit and Cost**: The profit of North China coal - fired glass was 286.5 on July 11, 2025, with a week - on - week increase of 7.5 and a day - on - day increase of 20.4. The cost of North China coal - fired glass was 873.5, with a week - on - week increase of 9.5 and a day - on - day decrease of 1.4. The profit of South China natural gas glass was - 118.6, with a week - on - week increase of 21.0 and no day - on - day change [1] - **Market Conditions**: Shache traders' glass price was around 1160, with average shipments from middle - stream traders and a small amount of futures - cash purchases. In Hubei, the low - price of glass from factories was 980, some manufacturers raised prices, and the transactions were good with futures - cash purchases. The new futures - cash price was 960, with average transactions. The glass production and sales ratios were 110 in Shache, 140 in Hubei, 128 in East China, and 100 in South China [1] 纯碱 - **Price Information**: On July 11, 2025, the price of heavy soda ash in Shache was 1210, with a week - on - week increase of 40.0 and a day - on - day decrease of 10.0. The SA05 contract price was 1282, with a week - on - week increase of 52.0 and a day - on - day decrease of 5.0 [1] - **Profit and Cost**: The profit of North China ammonia - soda method was - 105.0 on July 11, 2025, with a week - on - week increase of 24.3 and a day - on - day decrease of 11.3. The cost of North China ammonia - soda method was 1285.0, with a week - on - week increase of 5.7 and a day - on - day increase of 1.3. The profit of North China combined - soda method was - 92.7, with a week - on - week increase of 30.6 and a day - on - day decrease of 11.4 [1] - **Market Conditions**: The spot price of heavy soda ash at the delivery warehouse in Hebei was around 1180, and the price delivered to Shache was around 1210. The factory inventory of soda ash was accumulating, and the delivery warehouse had a slight inventory increase [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced a dramatic reversal by restoring exports of EDA software, aircraft engines, and ethane to China, influenced by major companies like Intel and General Electric fearing a loss of billions in revenue [1] - The trade war that began in spring 2025 is seen as a textbook case demonstrating the failure of hegemonic thinking in a multipolar world and the conflict between unilateralism and systemic resilience [1][2] - Initial U.S. tariffs aimed at China were based on a misjudgment of the economic interdependence and the strategic resolve of China, leading to significant operational disruptions in U.S. industries [2][4] Group 2 - The U.S. government's attempt to isolate China through a "tariff alliance" backfired, as allies like the EU and Japan pursued their own interests, undermining U.S. efforts [4] - China's strategic depth in the market was highlighted by the rapid adaptation of its industries, such as the successful launch of domestic chip production and electric vehicle market penetration in Europe [4][5] - The economic backlash in the U.S. was swift, with rising prices for Chinese goods and declining consumer confidence, impacting major companies like Tesla [5][7] Group 3 - The political division within the U.S. exacerbated the situation, with the Federal Reserve resisting pressure to lower interest rates, leading to a perception of economic surrender [7] - The U.S. military faced urgent supply issues due to reliance on Chinese rare earth materials, while China had already prepared for such scenarios [7]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market remains stable overall, with slight price declines in some regions for heavy soda ash, and a lack of significant positive support for trading activities [2][5]. Price Analysis - As of July 8, the price range for light soda ash in North China is 1170-1250 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash is priced at 1220-1340 CNY/ton. In Northeast China, light soda ash is priced at 1250-1360 CNY/ton, and heavy soda ash at 1310-1460 CNY/ton [2]. - The light soda ash price index is 1158.57, unchanged from the previous working day, while the heavy soda ash price index decreased by 7.14 to 1221.43, a decline of 0.58% [3]. Market Dynamics - The soda ash futures market showed a slight rebound on July 8, with the main contract SA2509 opening at 1166 CNY/ton and closing at 1178 CNY/ton, reflecting a daily increase of 0.60%. The highest price during the day was 1188 CNY/ton, and the lowest was 1165 CNY/ton, with total open interest at 1,693,895 contracts, down by 107,283 contracts [5]. - The market is characterized by high supply levels and accumulating inventories, while demand remains weak, leading to a loose supply-demand balance. Despite a short-term rebound due to market sentiment, the overall price increase potential is limited due to high inventory pressure and weak demand [5]. Future Outlook - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating trend in the short term, with ongoing supply adjustments and inventory changes being critical factors to monitor [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The PTA futures fluctuated within a range yesterday, and the spot market negotiation atmosphere improved compared to the previous day. The basis continued to be weak, and the decline in the afternoon widened. The current market supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the social inventory is at a relatively low level. It is expected that the PTA spot price will still fluctuate and adjust following the cost side in the short term, and the supporting effect may appear after the rapid decline of the spot basis. Attention should be paid to the results of the OPEC+ meeting and the polyester load fluctuations [6]. - MEG: On Tuesday, the price center of ethylene glycol was narrowly sorted, and the market negotiation was average. The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol is gradually changing, and the inventory accumulation expectation is obvious in the third quarter. The willingness of traders in the market to hold goods is poor. Due to the weakening supply - demand and the polyester off - season, the upper side of the ethylene glycol disk is under pressure. In the short term, the ethylene glycol price will be mainly sorted in a low range. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the return efficiency of the supply side and the changes in the cost side [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **PTA**: - Fundamental: Futures fluctuated, spot negotiation improved, basis weakened, and suppliers offered for sale. The mainstream spot basis today is 09 + 91, and the price negotiation range is 4780 - 4820 yuan/ton [6]. - Basis: The spot price is 4805, the 09 - contract basis is 80, and the disk is at a discount, which is bullish [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 3.95 days, a decrease of 0.14 days compared to the previous period, which is bullish [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [6]. - Main force position: Net short position, short position increased, which is bearish [6]. - **MEG**: - Fundamental: The price center was narrowly sorted, the basis was stable, and the spot negotiation was around a premium of 70 - 72 yuan/ton over the 09 contract. The overseas market price center was sorted at a low level [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 4343, the 09 - contract basis is 68, and the disk is at a discount, which is bullish [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the East China region is 53.2 tons, an increase of 2.73 tons compared to the previous period, which is bearish [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [7]. - Main force position: The main force is net short, and the short position decreased, which is bearish [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the changes in inventory and supply - demand gap [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the ethylene glycol total operating rate, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory data from January 2024 to December 2025, along with the supply - demand difference [12]. - **Price Data**: It includes the spot and futures prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers, as well as the basis, spread, and profit data on July 8 and July 7, 2025 [13]. 3.5 Price - **PTA and MEG Spot and Futures Prices**: The prices of naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers are provided, along with the changes in basis, spread, and profit on July 8, 2025, compared to July 7, 2025. For example, the spot price of naphtha increased by 1.5 dollars/ton, and the spot price of PX decreased by 7 dollars/ton [13]. - **PET Bottle - Chip Related Prices**: The historical data of the spot price, production gross profit, capacity utilization rate, and inventory of PET bottle - chips are presented [16][18][21][24]. 3.6 Inventory Analysis - **PTA Inventory**: The historical data of the PTA factory inventory available days in China are shown [42]. - **MEG Inventory**: The historical data of the MEG port inventory in the East China region are provided [42]. - **Polyester Product Inventory**: The historical data of the inventory available days of PET slices, polyester fibers (POY, DTY, FDY, short - fiber) in China are presented [44][51]. 3.7 Polyester Upstream and Downstream开工 - **Upstream**: The historical data of the operating rates of PTA, PX, and ethylene glycol in China are provided [53][55]. - **Downstream**: The historical data of the operating rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms in the PTA industry chain are presented [57][59]. 3.8 PTA Processing Fee and MEG Profit - **PTA Processing Fee**: The historical data of the PTA processing fee in China are shown [60][61]. - **MEG Profit**: The historical data of the production gross profit of MEG produced by different methods (methanol, coal - based syngas, naphtha integration, ethylene) in China are presented [63][64]. - **Polyester Fiber Profit**: The historical data of the production gross profit of polyester short - fiber and long - fiber (DTY, POY, FDY) in China are provided [66][68][69][70].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual varieties, it includes ratings such as "盘整" (Consolidation), "回调" (Correction), "震荡" (Sideways), "偏空" (Bearish), and "反弹" (Rebound) [1][2]. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: There is a balance between the increasing production pressure and the support from Saudi Arabia's increase in the OSP during the peak season, leading to a price consolidation. In the long - term, due to factors like the tariff war, the impact of new energy, and OPEC+ being in an expansion cycle, there is an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short - term, supply pressure is rising, and the price is likely to be bearish on rebounds [3][4][5]. - **LPG**: As the downward pressure on oil prices increases, LPG is under pressure. In the long - term, considering the supply - demand relationship of upstream crude oil, the central price is expected to continue to decline, and the current valuation of LPG is relatively high. In the short - term, the upward resistance is large, and the price is weak [6][7][8]. - **L (Polyethylene)**: The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, showing an interval - based consolidation. In the short - term, the cost support weakens, the supply pressure exists, and the demand is in the off - season. In the long - term, with the planned new capacity coming into operation, the outlook is weak [9][10]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: The cost support improves, and the price moves in an interval. Although there are some positive factors on the supply side, the overall supply - demand imbalance persists. In the long - term, the planned new capacity will put pressure on the supply [11][12]. - **PVC**: With the continuous decline in the price of calcium carbide, the cost support weakens. The supply pressure increases, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be bearish on rebounds [14][15]. - **PX**: The supply - demand relationship shifts from tight balance to looseness, and the cost support weakens. The price is expected to be bearish on rebounds [16][17]. - **PTA/PR**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance currently but is expected to loosen. There are opportunities to short at high prices [18][19][20]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Although the current inventory is low, the supply - demand is expected to become looser. There are opportunities to short at high prices [21][22][23]. - **Glass**: There is a conflict between policy expectations and real - world constraints. In the short - term, the price may move slightly upward, but in the medium - term, it is under pressure from the moving average [24][25]. - **Soda Ash**: The continuous inventory accumulation in soda ash plants puts pressure on the market sentiment. The price is expected to move in a wide - range sideways pattern [26][27][28]. - **Caustic Soda**: The expansion of liquid chlorine subsidies drives the price to rebound. Although the overall supply - demand fundamentals are weak, there is an expectation of inventory reduction during the maintenance season [29][30][31]. - **Methanol**: The upstream profit is still good, but there is a negative feedback on demand. The port may start a cycle of inventory accumulation later. The price is expected to be weak and sideways [32][33][34]. - **Urea**: Although the recent maintenance intensity has increased, the supply pressure remains large. The demand is weak, but the export growth is fast. There are opportunities to short on rebounds [2]. - **Asphalt**: Due to the pressure on the cost - end oil price, the short - term price is bearish [2]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices opened low and closed high. WTI decreased by 0.76%, Brent increased by 1.87%, and SC decreased by 1.01% [3]. - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ decided to accelerate production in August. However, the oil price has strong support below due to the peak consumption season and Saudi Arabia's increase in the OSP. The demand growth rate has slightly decreased, and the US inventory has changed [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, supply is expected to be in excess, and the price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short - term, supply pressure is rising, and it is recommended to short with a light position and buy call options for protection. SC should be monitored in the range of [500 - 520] [5]. LPG - **Market Review**: On July 7, the PG main contract closed at 4179 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.85% compared to the previous day. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China changed slightly [6]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream oil price is the dominant factor. OPEC+ plans to increase production in August, putting downward pressure on oil prices and LPG. The PDH device profit decreases, and the supply and demand sides have different changes [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the central price of LPG is expected to decline. In the short - term, it is recommended to short with a light position. PG should be monitored in the range of [4150 - 4250] [8]. L (Polyethylene) - **Basic Logic**: In the short - term, the cost support from crude oil weakens, the supply pressure exists, and the demand is in the off - season. The social inventory accumulates, and new capacity is planned to be put into operation in the long - term [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds and consider selling hedging opportunities. L should be monitored in the range of [7200 - 7300] [10]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Market Review**: The prices of PP contracts decreased slightly, and the main contract position and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [12]. - **Basic Logic**: The demand is weak, and the supply - demand imbalance persists. Although there are some positive factors on the supply side, the planned new capacity will put pressure on the supply in the long - term [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds and consider the 9 - 1 positive spread. PP should be monitored in the range of [7000 - 7100] [12]. PVC - **Basic Logic**: The price of calcium carbide continues to decline, the cost support weakens, the supply pressure increases, and the demand is in the off - season. The inventory accumulates, and attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of new plants and the change of anti - dumping tax policies [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds. V should be monitored in the range of [4800 - 5000] [15]. PX - **Market Review**: On July 4, the spot price in East China remained unchanged, and the futures prices of different contracts decreased. The basis and spreads changed [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and international PX devices are operating at a relatively high load. The demand from the PTA side has weakened recently, and the supply - demand relationship shifts from tight balance to looseness. The inventory is still relatively high [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: There are opportunities to short at high prices. PX should be monitored in the range of [6620 - 6730] [17]. PTA - **Market Review**: On July 4, the spot price in East China decreased, and the futures price of the main contract also decreased. The basis and spreads changed [18]. - **Basic Logic**: The restart of maintenance devices increases the supply. The demand from the polyester and terminal weaving industries weakens. The inventory is decreasing, but the processing fee is high, and the basis is expected to weaken [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: There are opportunities to short at high prices. TA should be monitored in the range of [4660 - 4750] [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On July 5, the spot price in East China remained unchanged, and the futures price of the main contract decreased. The basis and spreads changed [21]. - **Basic Logic**: Many domestic and international devices are under maintenance or temporary shutdown, and the recent arrival volume is low, but it is expected to increase. The demand from the polyester and terminal weaving industries weakens, and the supply - demand is expected to become looser [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: There are opportunities to short at high prices. EG should be monitored in the range of [4240 - 4310] [23]. Glass - **Market Review**: The spot market quotation increased, the futures contracts showed differentiation, the basis widened, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [24]. - **Basic Logic**: Although there are policy expectations for capacity reduction and technological improvement, the short - term market is restricted by reality. The production capacity fluctuates slightly at a low level, the output increases slightly, and the inventory decreases but is still higher than last year [25]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG should be monitored in the range of [1010 - 1040] [25]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The spot price of heavy soda decreased, the futures market showed differentiation, the main contract basis narrowed, the number of warehouse receipts increased, and the effective forecast decreased [27]. - **Basic Logic**: Although the policy of capacity reduction boosts the market sentiment, the inventory in soda ash plants continues to accumulate, and the supply is still at a high level. The downstream support is okay, but the terminal consumption is weak [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA should be monitored in the range of [1160 - 1190] [28]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The spot price of caustic soda is stable, the futures market rebounds, the basis strengthens, and the number of warehouse receipts decreases [30]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply side has high - load production and new capacity expectations, but there is an expectation of inventory reduction during the maintenance season. The demand from the alumina industry recovers, but non - aluminum demand is weak. The cost support weakens, and the inventory decreases [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SH should be monitored in the range of [2390 - 2450] [31]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On July 4, the spot price in East China decreased, the main contract futures price decreased, the basis and spreads changed, and the trans - shipment profit increased [32]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream profit is good, and the domestic and international device operation loads are high. The import profit increases, and the port may start to accumulate inventory later. The demand from the MTO side weakens, and the traditional downstream is in the off - season. The social inventory accumulates, and the cost support is weak [33]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: MA should be monitored in the range of [2350 - 2400] [34]. Urea - **Basic Logic**: The recent maintenance intensity increases, but the supply pressure remains large. The industrial and agricultural demands are weak, but the fertilizer export growth is fast. The cost support exists [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds. UR should be monitored in the range of [1725 - 1755] [2]. Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price is under pressure due to OPEC+'s production expansion. The supply increases, the inventory accumulates, and the demand is affected by the weather [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short with a light position. BU should be monitored in the range of [3550 - 3650] [2].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-07-08甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2509： 1、基本面：港口方面，短期尚有部分内地货源流入套利，且本周进口到货集中，库存或有累积风险，另随着伊朗装置 逐步恢复，后续进口量回升预期下，短期业者信心不足，不过伊朗中止与联合国核监督机构合作，宏观面尚存支撑，短 期港口甲醇多空博弈下震荡为主。内地方面，上游甲醇企业库存不多，加之近期产区甲醇装置集中检修，供应端并无压 力，对行情有一定支撑。但同时当前产业链利润多集中在甲醇，多数下游亏损严重尤其是MTO，成本转嫁困难，另外销 区下游用户原料库存在高位，产区甲醇价格经过上周反弹后，贸易商追涨情绪谨慎，且场内供应并无缺口，多空交 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. There is uncertainty in the Sino - US trade agreement, so it is recommended to stay cautious [6]. - The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9]. - The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is recommended to consider going long on gold futures [12]. - For various commodities, different investment strategies are recommended based on their respective supply - demand situations, cost factors, and market trends, such as going long, shorting, or staying on the sidelines. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed higher. The 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year main contracts rose by 0.11%, 0.03%, and 0.02% respectively, while the 2 - year main contract remained flat. The central bank conducted 34 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds from the open market [5]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution should be maintained [7]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures changed by 0.46%, 0.62%, - 0.01%, and - 0.43% respectively [8]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [10]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of gold and silver futures declined. The gold main contract closed at 777.06 with a decline of 0.54%, and the silver main contract closed at 8,919 with a decline of 0.28% [11]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is recommended to consider going long on gold futures [12]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded but faced resistance. The spot prices of Tangshan billet, Shanghai rebar, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil were reported [14]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: There is a risk of further decline in rebar prices, and the trend of hot - rolled coil may be similar. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities during rebounds, take profits in a timely manner, and manage positions carefully [14]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rebounded slightly. The spot prices of PB powder and Super Special powder at ports were reported [16]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The supply - demand pattern of the iron ore market has weakened marginally. Investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels, take profits when the price rebounds, and stop losses if the price falls below the previous low, while managing positions carefully [17]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures declined slightly [19]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: There is uncertainty in the short - term trend. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities during rebounds, take profits in a timely manner, and manage positions carefully [19]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of manganese silicon and silicon iron futures declined. The spot prices of manganese silicon in Tianjin and silicon iron in Inner Mongolia changed [21]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: In the short term, ferroalloys may continue to have an oversupply situation, and prices are under pressure. If the spot losses increase significantly, it is advisable to consider low - value call options [22]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward and broke below the 5 - day moving average [23]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: OPEC+ unexpectedly increased production significantly, which is expected to impact oil prices. It is advisable to focus on short - selling opportunities for the main crude oil contract [24][25]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward and resumed its downward trend. The spot spreads and trading conditions of high - sulfur and ultra - low - sulfur fuel oil were reported [26]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Fuel oil supply is sufficient, and the cost of crude oil is declining. It is advisable to focus on short - selling opportunities for the main fuel oil contract [26]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber rose slightly. The mainstream price in Shandong remained stable [27]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [28]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber declined. The Shanghai spot price decreased [29]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long after the market stabilizes [30]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main PVC contract declined slightly, and the spot price remained stable [31]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The PVC price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [34]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main urea contract rose slightly. The price in Shandong Linyi remained stable [35]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The short - term trend is oscillatory, and the medium - term trend is bullish [36]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main PX2509 contract declined. The PXN and PX - MX spreads were reported [37]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: In the short term, the supply - demand balance of PX is slightly improved but remains tight. Due to insufficient cost support, it is advisable to participate cautiously and pay attention to changes in crude oil prices and the Middle East situation [38]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main PTA2509 contract declined. The spot price and basis rate in East China were reported [39]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: In the short term, the supply - demand fundamentals of PTA have few contradictions, but the cost support of crude oil is insufficient. It is advisable to participate with a light position and control risks [39]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main ethylene glycol contract declined slightly. The overall and partial开工 loads, inventory, and demand situations were reported [40]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: In the short term, the supply - demand situation of ethylene glycol has weakened, but the significant reduction in inventory provides support. It is advisable to be cautious about the downside space and pay attention to port inventory and import changes [41]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main short - fiber 2508 contract declined. The supply, demand, and cost - benefit situations were reported [42]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Both the downstream terminal demand and cost factors have weakened. It is advisable to participate with a light position following the cost trend and pay attention to opportunities to expand the processing margin at low levels [42]. Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main bottle chips 2509 contract declined. The cost - benefit, supply, and demand situations were reported [43]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Although the raw material prices have weakened recently, the increase in device maintenance and inventory reduction provide support. It is advisable to participate cautiously and pay attention to opportunities to expand the processing margin at low levels [43]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of soda ash declined. The production, inventory, and device maintenance situations were reported [44]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: In the medium - to - long term, the oversupply situation of soda ash is difficult to alleviate. There may be a short - term rebound, but it is not advisable to chase the rise excessively [44]. Glass - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of glass declined. The production line, supply - demand, and market price situations were reported [45]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The actual supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the market sentiment is weak. There may be a short - term rebound, but it is not advisable to chase the rise excessively. Short - sellers at low levels should control their positions [47]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of caustic soda declined slightly. The production, inventory, and demand situations were reported [48]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The overall supply - demand is still relatively loose, and the regional differences are obvious. Although there is short - term bullish sentiment, the fundamental support is limited, and the sustainability is expected to be general [49]. Pulp - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of pulp declined. The downstream product production, supply - demand, and price situations were reported [50]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The supply - demand contradiction remains unresolved. It is expected that the price of the pulp market will remain weak and stagnant in the near future, and it is advisable to wait and see the changes in raw material pulp prices and downstream demand [51]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main lithium carbonate contract declined. The market sentiment improved, but the supply - demand pattern remained unchanged [52]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The supply - demand surplus situation has not changed significantly. It is not advisable for investors to chase the rise [52]. Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper declined significantly and broke below the 5 - day moving average. The spot price and market trading situation were reported [53]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Shanghai copper is facing the test of the 80,000 - yuan integer mark. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines for the main Shanghai copper contract for the time being [53][54]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated. The supply, demand, and inventory situations were reported [55]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: It is expected that the tin price will oscillate and strengthen [55]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel declined. The supply, demand, and inventory situations were reported [56]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: It is expected that the nickel price will oscillate [57]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of soybean meal and soybean oil declined. The spot prices and inventory situations were reported [58]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Consider paying attention to long - position opportunities for soybean meal at low - level support intervals; for soybean oil, consider paying attention to call option opportunities at support intervals after the price decline [59]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil closed lower. The international and domestic supply - demand, inventory, and price situations were reported [60][61]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Consider paying attention to opportunities to widen the difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil [62]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed remained flat. The domestic import, inventory, and spot price situations were reported [63]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Consider paying attention to opportunities to go long on the ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal [64]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: Domestic Zhengzhou cotton oscillated strongly at a high level. The US cotton export, planting, and growth situations were reported [65]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Stay on the sidelines [69]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: Domestic Zhengzhou sugar rose and then fell. The international and domestic production, inventory, and supply - demand situations were reported [70]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Stay on the sidelines [72]. Apples - **Market Performance**: Domestic apple futures rose and then fell. The production, inventory, and price situations were reported [73]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Stay on the sidelines and pay attention to third - party production research data [75]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: The national average price of pigs declined. The supply, demand, and inventory situations were reported [76]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The short - term pig price may continue to be weak. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines and pay attention to the weight - reduction degree in the south [77]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The average prices of eggs in the main production and sales areas remained unchanged. The supply, cost, and profit situations were reported [78]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Consider short - selling on rebounds [80]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Market Performance**: The main contracts of corn and corn starch declined. The spot prices, inventory, and demand situations were reported [81]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines. Corn starch follows the corn market trend [82]. Logs - **Market Performance**: The main 2509 contract of logs remained unchanged. The supply, cost, demand, and price situations were reported [83]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: It is expected that the market will oscillate and adjust before the first delivery [85].

Core Viewpoint - Hunan Juren New Materials Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Juren New Materials") has been accepted for IPO on the Beijing Stock Exchange, focusing on the research, production, and sales of caprolactam series products, marking a significant step in the domestic chemical materials industry [1][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - Juren New Materials is the largest domestic supplier of caprolactam series products, having established the first 10,000-ton continuous production line for caprolactam series products in China, filling a gap in large-scale production [2][4]. - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 58.12% in revenue during the reporting period, indicating strong growth momentum [5]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Revenue figures for Juren New Materials from 2022 to 2024 are as follows: 192 million yuan, 282 million yuan, and 479 million yuan, respectively, demonstrating rapid growth [1]. - Net profit for the same period has also shown significant increases: 47.26 million yuan, 74.20 million yuan, and 83.35 million yuan [1]. Group 3: Investment and Projects - The company plans to raise 292 million yuan through its IPO, which will be allocated to a 40,000-ton/year special polycaprolactone intelligent factory project, a research and development center project, and to supplement working capital [1]. - In 2023, Juren New Materials completed the construction of the world's largest single-capacity caprolactam facility, with an annual capacity of 50,000 tons [7]. Group 4: Market Position and Collaborations - Juren New Materials has established partnerships with major international companies such as BASF, BIC, and Covestro, as well as long-term collaborations with domestic leaders like Wanhua Chemical and Meirui New Materials [5]. - The company's market share in the domestic caprolactam market increased from 35.19% in 2022 to 37.21% in 2023, solidifying its position as the largest supplier in the sector [5]. Group 5: Innovation and Certifications - The company has built a comprehensive technology transfer system from basic research to industrialization, supported by various innovation platforms [6]. - Juren New Materials has received multiple certifications, including being recognized as a "Little Giant" enterprise and a high-tech enterprise, and has participated in the formulation of national standards for biodegradable materials [6].