昨天，收到了知识星球平台推送过来的年度总结，有个惊喜——因此，顺便再搞个抽奖。 在一年多的时间里， 合计输出的内容，超过了400万字 ，相当于5本《悲惨世界》——不知道为啥星球平台要用悲惨世界作为benchmark，有一丝丝蛋蛋的 悲伤。 下图，25年是"表舅和表舅的朋友们"这个星球，创设的第一个完整自然年度， 位居全市场星球年度实力榜的第13名 ，这应该是包含了全品类的 ——除了做白日梦的数量之外，我没想到过，这辈子，做一件事情，还能做到全国TOP 20的，偶尔吹个牛x，应该不过分吧 。 补充说明几点。 第一，能在不割韭菜，不传递焦虑，不树永远正确的人设，不给财富代码，只做合法合规的知识输出的情况下，做到在全市场都排得上号，这还 是非常有成就感的； 第二， "表舅和表舅的朋友们"这个星球的目标，是做成最有干货的内容社区之一 ，我个人坚信，在AI时代，由于内容的泛滥， 对个人投资者来 说，核心是找到"品控优秀"的信息源 ，而对于一个内容社区而言，我也坚信，做一个原创、严肃的平台，也是能吸引到足够多，追求理性、客 观的用户的； 第三，段永平说企业要有个"不为清单"，对上面这个星球来说， 也有能做的，和不能做的。 ...

科创100ETF基金（588220）基金经理为苏俊杰。 截至发稿，苏俊杰累计任职时间7年353天，现任基金资产总规模249.24亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 98.15%， 任职期间最差基金回报-21.6%。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建 议。 资料显示，江苏微导纳米科技股份有限公司位于江苏省无锡市新吴区长江南路27号，成立日期2015年12 月25日，上市日期2022年12月23日，公司主营业务涉及以ALD技术为核心,致力于先进微、纳米级薄膜 沉积技术和设备的研究与产业化应用,为光伏、集成电路、柔性电子等半导体与泛半导体行业提供高端 装备与技术解决方案。主营业务收入构成为：光伏设备76.54%，半导体设备18.43%，配套产品及服务 3.07%，其他1.89%，其他(补充)0.07%。 从微导纳米十大流通股东角度 数据显示，鹏华基金旗下1只基金位居微导纳米十大流通股东。科创100ETF基金（588220）三季度新进 十大流通股东，持有股数83.68万股，占流通 ...

AI应用主线继续调整，志特新材、卫宁健康、蓝色光标等个股大跌。商业航天板块临近上午收盘，迎来一波拉升，但个股分化明显。 截至上午收盘，上证指数下跌0.22%，深证成指下跌0.1%，创业板指下跌0.01%。 半导体产业链走强 今天上午，两类半导体个股上涨，带动半导体产业链走强。一类是江波龙、佰维存储等存储芯片股，二是中微公司、北方华创、精测电子等半导体设备 股。 | | V | 半导体 13835.48 2.65% | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 成分股 | 基金 | 箇況(F10) | 资金 | 板块分7 | | 名称代码 | | 最新 | 涨幅 → | 流通市值 | | 大岳先进 融 688234 | | 111.19 | 20.00% | 478 Z | | 首板涨停 最终涨停 11:25 | | | | | | 凯德石英 融 920179 | | 54.01 | 16.25% | 32.2 Z | | 派瑞股份 1 300831 | | 13.80 | 14.14% | 25.5亿 | | 蓝箭电子 301348 | | 33.64 | 11.10% | ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.1%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.01%, while the Northern Stock 50 rose by 0.37% [1] - The total market turnover reached 200.63 billion yuan, an increase of 111.1 billion yuan compared to the previous day's turnover [1] Sector Performance - The electric grid equipment, semiconductor equipment, and storage chip sectors were active, while the AI application sector experienced a decline [1] - Electric grid equipment showed strength in the morning session, with companies like Electric Power Research Institute and Hancable both hitting the daily limit [1] - Semiconductor equipment continued to perform well, with Jing Sheng Co. rising over 10%, and companies like Zhongke Feimiao and Jinhai Tong increasing by over 6% [1] - The storage chip sector also saw gains, with Jin Tai Yang hitting the daily limit, and companies such as Jing Suan Da, Kexiang Co., and Jing Ce Electronics rising over 10% [1] - Conversely, the AI application sector faced weakness, with Zhi Te New Materials hitting the daily limit down, and companies like Weining Health, Liu Jin Technology, and Hongbo Medicine dropping over 10% [1]

今日（1月16日）市场主要指数集体高开后，沪指翻绿。电力设备、电子涨幅居前。 盘面上，电网设备板块掀涨停潮，汉缆股份、广电电气、保变电气等10余股涨停，消息面上，国家电网公司发布消息 称，"十五五"期间，国家电网固定资产投资将达到4万亿元，创历史新高，投资总额比"十四五"时期增长40%。 半导体板块涨幅居前，派瑞股份（维权）、芯源微、天岳先进等多股涨超10%。 新股提示：N科马开盘涨超3倍 恒运昌今日申购 N科马今日在北交所上市，开盘价50元，开盘上涨328.82%。公司主营业务为干式摩擦片及湿式纸基摩擦片的研发、生 产及销售，并致力于新型摩擦材料的开发应用。 恒运昌今日开启申购，公司本次拟公开发行股票1693.06万股，其中网上发行406.30万股，申购代码787785，申购价格为 92.18元 ，发行市盈率为48.39倍。 公司是国内领先的半导体设备核心零部件供应商，主要从事等离子体射频电源系统、等离子体激发装置、等离子体直流 电源、各种配件的研发、生产、销售及技术服务，并引进真空获得和流体控制等相关的核心零部件，围绕等离子体工艺 提供核心零部件整体解决方案。 存储芯片概念强势，精测电子、蓝箭电子、佰维存 ...

Group 1 - The semiconductor equipment ETF, Guangfa (560780.SH), experienced a rise of 5.38% on January 15, 2026, with a trading volume of 253 million yuan [1] - The fund saw a net inflow of leveraged funds totaling 16.30 million yuan over the past two days, ranking it among the top two comparable funds [1] - The financing buy-in for the ETF amounted to 19.52 million yuan, while financing repayments were 13.18 million yuan, resulting in a net financing buy-in of 6.34 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The ETF has both onshore connection classes: Class A (020639) and Class C (020640) [1]

如果用一个词概括HBM这几年的进化，那就是：堆得越来越高。HBM本质上是一种"把 DRAM 垂直叠起来"的存储技术。层数越高，单颗 HBM 的容量越 大、带宽越高，对 AI GPU 来说就越香——因为 AI 真正稀缺的从来不是算力，而是喂数据的速度。 因此，HBM 的演进路线也非常清晰：从4层到8层、12层，再逼近16 层。8 层是 HBM 真正成熟、规模化出货的主力，它是过去一段时间 AI GPU 的"最常 见配置"，良率稳定、供应链也最成熟；12层则成为近两年的主力量产方向，在容量、性能与成本之间取得了更理想的平衡，也最适合大规模出货。而截 至目前，HBM 已经正式迈入16层堆叠的量产前夜：在刚刚结束的 CES 2026 上，SK 海力士已经展出了全球首款16层 HBM4 样品，单堆栈容量提升至 48GB。 但层数的提升，并不只是"多堆几层"这么简单。事实上，每增加 4 层，整个系统的制造难度都会显著上一个台阶：贴装精度、焊点间距、Z 方向高度控 制、翘曲、底填（MUF）可靠性……所有原本还能被工艺余量掩盖的问题，都会被 16 层这种高度放大到"生死线"级别。 面对困局，行业分化出了两种声音：一种是追求终 ...

Core Viewpoint - The evolution of HBM technology is characterized by increasing stack heights, enhancing capacity and bandwidth, which is crucial for AI GPUs due to their need for high data feeding speeds [1]. Group 1: HBM Technology Development - HBM has progressed from 4 layers to 8 layers, 12 layers, and is approaching 16 layers, with 8 layers being the most common configuration for AI GPUs [1]. - The introduction of 16-layer HBM4 has been showcased by SK Hynix, with a single stack capacity of 48GB [1]. - Increasing the number of layers significantly raises manufacturing challenges, including precision in mounting, solder joint spacing, and reliability issues [1]. Group 2: Hybrid Bonding and Fluxless Technology - Hybrid bonding is a cutting-edge interconnection technology that eliminates solder and flux, aiming for direct connections with higher I/O density [4]. - The recent JEDEC revision allows for a height increase in HBM modules, providing more space for traditional micro-bump technology [6]. - Fluxless technology is emerging as a transitional solution to address the limitations of traditional interconnection methods, particularly in high-density applications [8][12]. Group 3: TCB and Its Variants - Thermal Compression Bonding (TCB) is a key method for HBM stacking, allowing for higher interconnect density and precision [9][10]. - TCB has various types, including TC-CUF, TC-MUF, TC-NCP, and TC-NCF, each addressing specific challenges in high-density applications [12]. - The industry is moving towards Fluxless TCB to mitigate issues related to solder residues and improve yield and reliability [12][13]. Group 4: Industry Perspectives and Equipment Suppliers - SK Hynix remains cautious about adopting Fluxless technology for HBM4, preferring to continue with its Advanced MR-MUF process [19][21]. - BESI is seen as a proponent of hybrid bonding, focusing on preparing for future demands while facing short-term challenges due to slower-than-expected adoption rates [24]. - ASMPT emphasizes TCB as the core platform for HBM stacking, particularly during the transition from 12 to 16 layers, while also pushing for Fluxless advancements [25][26]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - Hanmi Semiconductor is positioned as a key player in the "improvement route," optimizing TCB equipment for SK Hynix's processes [27]. - Hanwha Precision Machinery is emerging as a competitor, developing TCB equipment and exploring Fluxless technology to disrupt the existing supply chain [28]. - Kulicke & Soffa (K&S) is recognized for its stability and large-scale manufacturing experience, serving as a foundational player in the industry [29]. Conclusion - The delay in Fluxless technology adoption highlights the complexities of advanced packaging, emphasizing the need for a balance between innovation and production stability [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On Thursday, the main indices of the two markets oscillated and adjusted to repair technical indicators, with the semiconductor equipment sector leading the gains. International investors are accelerating the allocation of Chinese assets, and multiple foreign - funded institutions are optimistic about the performance of Chinese assets in 2026. The Chinese stock market has a high probability of rising in 2026, and the growth - type indices are expected to end the adjustment and resume the upward trend on Friday or early next week. Long - term index futures positions should be held, and investors can choose to buy out - of - the - money long - term call options on the CSI 1000 Index [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, the trading volume of the two markets was 2.90 trillion yuan, showing a rapid contraction. The CSI 500 Index closed at 8223 points, down 4 points or - 0.05%; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 8240 points, down 16 points or - 0.20%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 3105 points, down 6 points or - 0.21%; the SHSZ 300 Index closed at 4751 points, up 9 points or 0.20%. The funds in stock index futures for the CSI 1000, SHSZ 300, CSI 500, and SSE 50 indices had net outflows of 7.1 billion, 4.4 billion, 3.6 billion, and 1.3 billion yuan respectively [1] - Among industry and theme ETFs, the top gainers were semiconductor equipment ETFs, while the top losers were satellite industry ETFs. Among the sector indices of the two markets, the glass - fiber, rubber, and other sectors led the gains, and the industrial Internet, aerospace equipment, and other sectors led the losses [1] 3.2 Important Information - The central bank lowered the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points and will lower the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing mortgages to 30%. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year [1] - China's "demand shortage" is mainly "consumer demand shortage", with the consumption - to - GDP ratio about 20 percentage points lower than the global average, and this gap needs to be corrected [1] - More than 10 billion yuan of funds continuously entered the market through ETFs. From January 9th to 13th, the net subscription amount of equity ETFs exceeded 12 billion yuan for three consecutive trading days, with a total net subscription amount exceeding 47 billion yuan. On January 14th, the trading volume of many broad - based ETFs increased significantly, and many newly issued funds announced the early end of fundraising [1] - China shows strong R & D potential and a clear technology iteration path. The relaxation of the H200 export policy by the US indicates that it can no longer block China's technological take - off [1] - Nvidia's new AI inference context memory storage (ICMS) architecture is expected to significantly exacerbate the global shortage of NAND flash memory, bringing additional demand equivalent to 2.8% and 9.3% of the global total NAND demand in 2026 and 2027 respectively [1] - The global explosion in AI chip demand is constrained by TSMC's production capacity, with a supply - demand gap of three times for its most advanced processes. Although TSMC is adjusting production lines and expanding production globally, the shortage cannot be alleviated in the short term, and the advanced packaging link has become a key bottleneck [2] - Deutsche Bank believes that the cost gap between space deployment and ground construction is shrinking rapidly, and in the next decade, the cost of building a space data center will approach that of ground construction [2] - OpenAI signed a three - year agreement with Cerebras, promising to purchase up to 750 megawatts of computing power, all using Cerebras' wafer - scale chips, with a transaction value exceeding $10 billion [2] - Trump launched fiscal, monetary, and credit stimulus, which may lead to debt out - of - control, financial risk accumulation, and a future debt crisis and market crash [2] - Wall Street financial institutions are entering the prediction market, and this emerging market has evolved into a sports - contract - based betting platform [2] - Citi's research report indicates that the commodity market is at a turning point. Crude oil is driven by geopolitics in the short term with a target of $70, but faces long - term oversupply pressure. Precious metals are bullish, with a target of $100 for silver and $5000 for gold. Among industrial metals, the target for aluminum is $3400 - 3500, and the copper price is expected to reach $14000, but January may be the annual high [2] 3.3 Market Logic - International investors are accelerating the allocation of Chinese assets. Many foreign - funded institutions are optimistic about the performance of Chinese assets in 2026. The continuous improvement of corporate profits, continuous technological innovation breakthroughs, and increasing valuation attractiveness provide a solid foundation for the continuous rise of Chinese assets [2] - In 2025, the stock market had a net inflow of 2.26 trillion yuan. In 2026, insurance, wealth management, and pensions are expected to be the three major sources of incremental funds, with institutional incremental funds in the stock market reaching 3.1 trillion yuan, and the scale of public fixed - income + products at least doubling [2] - More international funds are turning their attention to the AI track outside the US. China's technology sector, with its valuation advantages, complete industrial ecosystem, and large - scale manufacturing capabilities, is becoming a new destination for global funds in the AI field [2][3] 3.4 Market Outlook - The trading - type investors are actively increasing their positions in Chinese assets, and the allocation - type investors are optimizing the weight of Chinese assets in the global portfolio. The application for satellite frequency and orbit resources has risen to the national strategic level, and the upward trend of the Chinese market is expected to continue in 2026 [3] - The risk of a significant rise in the Chinese stock market in 2026 is much higher than that of a significant decline. The acceleration of AI applications, anti - involution, and the re - allocation of domestic liquidity from deposits to the stock market are positive factors [3] - The return of the US to the Monroe Doctrine will accelerate the flow of global funds to the Chinese capital market. The Fed's interest rate cut and balance - sheet expansion, along with the appreciation of the RMB, will lead to the return of a large amount of US dollars held by foreign trade enterprises overseas, and funds will flow from enterprise accounts to resident accounts and then to securities accounts [3] - China's application for 200,000 low - orbit satellites has shocked the market, indicating that the Sino - US space infrastructure competition has become a key area of technological competition. The adjustment of growth - type indices is expected to end on Friday or early next week, and the upward trend will resume [3] 3.5 Trading Strategy - For stock index futures directional trading, the policy hopes for a bull market but also a slow one. With a large amount of off - market funds still flowing in, the upward trend driven by market funds remains unchanged. Long - term stock index futures positions should be held [3] - For stock index option trading, investors can choose to buy out - of - the - money long - term call options on the CSI 1000 Index [3]

开源证券北交所研究中心总经理诸海滨向《证券日报》记者表示，进入2025年三季度后，从北交所新股 发行节奏上来看，发行审核会议的召开频率有所提升。同时，从中长期来看，北交所高质量扩容与流动 性改善确定性较强。 据悉，晨光电机、邦泽创科两家企业从事电器业务；瑞尔竞达是一家专业为高炉炼铁系统提供长寿技术 方案及关键耐火材料的高新技术企业；中科仪则是我国领先的半导体制造设备核心部件及真空科学仪器 设备供应商；信胜科技的主营业务为电脑刺绣机的研发、生产和销售；百瑞吉是一家主要从事生物医用 材料等产品研发、生产和销售的高新技术企业。 从行业属性看，上述6家企业均属于高端制造业或战略性新兴领域，凸显当前上市审核对硬科技产业及 高端制造的重点扶持导向。 北交所上市审核节奏加快，凸显了北交所服务创新型中小企业的效率。多位业内人士认为，在多项政策 的赋能下，北交所上市审核更加聚焦核心技术与产业价值，为一批深耕硬科技、细分赛道的企业插上了 上市"腾飞"的翅膀。 1月14日，北京证券交易所(以下简称"北交所")上市委员会(以下简称"上市委")公布的今年第3次审议会 议结果显示，明光瑞尔竞达科技股份有限公司(以下简称"瑞尔竞达")符合 ...