晨 会 纪 要 [2026]第 31 号 参会人员：曹旭特 仇华 许雯 王攀 蒋栋 轩鹏程 李育文 张智珑 郭怡萍 汪炜 张弛 李正威 邢维洁 马丽明 聂孟依 王雪莹 文正平 周成 整理记录：轩鹏程 研究所今日晨会要点如下: 一、机械行业（轩鹏程） ❑ 机器人：4 家企业亮相 2026 年央视春晚，展示出色运控、协同能力 据财联社，在 2026 年 2 月 16 日举行的央视春晚节目上，宇树科技、魔法原子、松延动 力、银河通用等 4 家企业陆续亮相。其中，松延动力旗下的 Bumi 小布米、N2 以及改造版 E1 等四台人形机器人参与节目，凸显机器人作为"家庭助手"的情绪陪伴价值。宇数科技旗下 的 H2 和 G1 人形机器人则在节目中表演后空翻、侧翻、马步等高难度动作，并在在快速奔跑 中完成穿插变阵和武术动作，展示其优秀的运动性能。魔法原子旗下的 Magic Bot Z1 和 Magic Bot Gen1 人形机器人则在歌唱节目中表演舞蹈动作。银河通用旗下的轮式双臂人形机器人 G1 则在节目中展示叠衣服、递东西、简单烹饪等家庭应用场景。另据券商中国，本届春晚播出 后两小时内，京东机器人搜索量环比增长超 300% ...

Group 1 - The core investment theme post-Spring Festival revolves around "price increases" and "revaluation of physical assets," particularly in resource, chemical, and midstream manufacturing sectors, leveraging China's pricing power amid global uncertainties [1][2] - The technology sector, particularly driven by AI, remains a key focus, with sub-sectors like computing power, applications, and robotics expected to remain active due to industrial catalysts [1][2] - The recovery of export chains, non-bank financials, and certain consumer and real estate chains are seen as important supplements to market trends under the backdrop of internal and external demand recovery [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities emphasizes that price increases are a core configuration clue for Q1, with a focus on sectors like chemicals, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, and new energy, while also increasing exposure to undervalued insurance and brokerage stocks [2] - Historical data indicates that February and the period around the Spring Festival are strong for market movements, with small-cap stocks showing a 100% probability of rising from the Spring Festival to the Two Sessions [3] - Guojin Securities highlights the importance of balancing global physical assets against Chinese assets, recommending commodities like copper, aluminum, and oil, as well as sectors with global comparative advantages like equipment exports and domestic manufacturing [4] Group 3 - Industrial sectors experiencing structural price increases due to supply-demand gaps are primarily in midstream materials and manufacturing, with a focus on chemicals, steel, and high-end manufacturing [5] - The potential for recovery in the export chain is noted, particularly in industries with significant exposure to the U.S. market that will benefit from reduced tariffs [5] - The policy uncertainty surrounding tariffs and trade is expected to favor gold as a risk hedge, with market participants anticipating potential shifts in U.S. trade policy [6] Group 4 - Attention is drawn to the post-holiday inventory replenishment in commodities, with a continued positive outlook on technology applications, particularly in semiconductors and AI [7] - Quantum technology is highlighted as a sector receiving dual catalysts from policy and technological advancements, with significant developments in quantum key distribution networks [8] - The AI industry revolution is identified as a key investment theme, focusing on computing power, storage, and applications, with a strong emphasis on the performance of high-growth sectors [9] Group 5 - Localized opportunities are expected in AI applications linked to overseas trends and robotics associated with the Spring Festival, with a cautious approach to market movements anticipated [10] - The current bull market logic remains intact, with a recommendation for investors to maintain confidence despite short-term volatility, focusing on sectors with high securities ratios [11]

今日关注 1、商务部新闻发言人23日表示，我们注意到美国最高法院公布关税诉讼案裁决结果，正在对相关内容 和影响进行全面评估。我们也注意到，美方正在准备采取贸易调查等替代措施，以期维持对贸易伙伴加 征的关税，中方将对此保持密切关注并坚定维护中方利益。 1、据央视新闻，针对美国国务卿鲁比奥宣布任命新任美国"西藏特别事务协调员"一事，外交部发言人 表示，西藏事务是中国内政，美方此举是在干涉中国内政，中方从来不予承认。 2、23日，全社会跨区域人员流动量预计超3.6亿人次，比2025年同期增长11.9%，全国多地迎返程客流 高峰。 2、2026年中国电影票房（含预售）已突破80亿元，其中，春节档票房超57亿元。目前中国电影票房以 超北美市场近10亿元人民币的成绩领跑全球电影市场。 3、据中国国家铁路集团有限公司消息，23日正月初七是春节假期最后一天，全国铁路迎来返程客流最 高峰，预计发送旅客1850万人次，计划加开旅客列车2297列。 4、25日起，纳税人可以通过个人所得税App提前预约办理2025年度个人所得税综合所得汇算清缴。 2025年度个人所得税综合所得汇算清缴办理时间为2026年3月1日至6月30日。 5、 ...

Group 1 - The capital flow in the A-share market has shown a divergent trend since the beginning of 2026, with broad-based ETFs experiencing significant outflows while industry and cross-border ETFs have attracted substantial inflows [1][2] - As of February 13, 2026, the net inflow for cross-border ETFs reached 63 billion yuan, while industry ETFs such as chemical, non-ferrous metals, and satellite sectors have seen strong capital inflows [1][2] - The total net outflow from equity ETFs in the A-share market amounted to 846.46 billion yuan by February 13, 2026, with major outflows concentrated in large-scale broad-based ETFs [1][2] Group 2 - Fund managers remain optimistic about the technology sector, viewing it as a core investment theme for 2026, particularly in the context of artificial intelligence (AI) advancements [3][4] - The AI sector is perceived as a significant driver of productivity and is considered a key variable in the new industrial revolution, with expectations for continued growth and innovation in China [3][4] - Despite recent market adjustments, the long-term upward trend of the A-share market is expected to persist, with a focus on AI as a primary investment narrative [3][4]

"这不是把戏，也不是那种只能短暂展示可行性的噱头，"阿斯麦负责极紫外（EUV）光源的首席技术专 家Michael Purvis在接受采访时表示，"这是一套在客户现场相同要求下可输出1，000瓦功率的系统" 报道称，借助周一披露的这一技术进展，阿斯麦力求通过改进设备中技术难度最高的环节，与潜在竞争 对手进一步拉开差距。 阿斯麦的研究人员已找到将EUV光源功率从目前的600瓦提升至1，000瓦的方法。 阿斯麦的研究人员已找到将EUV光源功率从目前的600瓦提升至1，000瓦的方法。 阿斯麦负责NXE系列EUV设备的执行副总裁Teun Van Gogh表示，到本十年末，客户使用每台设备每小 时可处理约330片硅晶圆，高于目前的220片。 责任编辑：陈钰嘉 据报道，阿斯麦控股的研究人员表示，他们已发现一种提升关键芯片制造设备光源功率的方法，这一突 破有望使芯片产量到2030年提升高达50%。 据报道，阿斯麦控股的研究人员表示，他们已发现一种提升关键芯片制造设备光源功率的方法，这一突 破有望使芯片产量到2030年提升高达50%。 "这不是把戏，也不是那种只能短暂展示可行性的噱头，"阿斯麦负责极紫外（EUV）光源的首席技 ...

阿斯麦的研究人员表示，他们已找到一种方法，可以大幅提升关键芯片制造机器的光源功率，从而在 2030年前将芯片产量提高多达50%。（路透） 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

如果我们把日本，当成一个资产负债表。会看到什么？ 一、日本的负债端：260%意味着什么？ 很多人听到"债务率260%"，第一反应是——要爆雷了？但问题是，债务率高，并不自动等于危机。 关键看三个问题： 如果一个国家的政府债务，已经达到GDP的260%，它现在最应该做什么？紧缩财政？削减军费？降低 福利？还是继续发债、减税、扩大军费？日本，正在做后者。 第一，债务是本币还是外币？ 第二，债务由谁持有？ 第三，融资成本是多少？ 日本的政府债务，绝大部分是日元计价。而且超过80%，由国内机构持有——包括日本央行、银行、保 险公司、养老金机构。这和很多新兴市场国家完全不同。 新兴市场如果债务率高，问题在于：它们借的是美元，受制于外部利率。资本一旦外流，货币立刻贬 值，债务立刻失控。但日本不是。 日本借的是自己的货币。而日本央行，长期执行收益率曲线控制政策。也就是说——它可以影响长期国 债利率。过去十多年，日本长期利率几乎维持在极低水平。 所以，如果一个国家，债务率高达260%，但融资成本极低，而且债务基本在国内循环——它真的会像 市场想象的那样立刻爆炸吗？未必。 二、日本的资产端：它不是穷国。 我们再看资产端。日本拥 ...

Core Insights - The report suggests adopting a "steady first, with growth in mind" approach to maintain gains in the second half of the spring market and to reserve space for future positioning [2][15] - The spring market of 2026 began on December 17, 2025, driven by favorable policies and early capital allocation, leading to a strong performance in the A-share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving 17 consecutive days of gains [9][13] - The convertible bond market experienced rapid growth followed by volatility, with median prices and conversion premiums reaching historical highs, indicating a significant reduction in the safety cushion of bonds [9][10] Market Trends - Historical data from 2017 to 2025 indicates that the market typically experiences a "rise then fall" pattern from the Spring Festival to the National People's Congress (NPC) [13][14] - The report highlights that during the period from the Spring Festival to the NPC, the market is likely to see a "spring surge," with small-cap growth stocks outperforming, particularly in TMT and high-end manufacturing sectors [13][14] - As the NPC approaches, the market may shift towards defensive sectors like pharmaceuticals and utilities, with high valuations in convertible bonds facing potential compression due to stock adjustments [13][14] Investment Strategy - The report recommends a balanced investment strategy, transitioning from aggressive profit-seeking to balancing returns and risks as the market moves into the NPC and Q1 earnings preview phase [15] - It emphasizes the importance of selecting convertible bonds with solid performance and reasonable pricing, while also considering high-quality, high-priced convertible bonds with clear growth prospects [15] - The report identifies sectors such as AI computing, semiconductors, non-ferrous metals, and post-cycle industries like consumption and real estate as favorable for convertible bonds due to improving supply-demand dynamics and favorable policy catalysts [15]

今年以来盛美上海已公布的国际专利申请16个，较去年同期增加了60%。结合公司2025年中报财务数 据，2025上半年公司在研发方面投入了4.16亿元，同比增20.17%。 数据来源：企查查 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 证券之星消息，根据企查查数据显示盛美上海（688082）公布了一项国际专利申请，专利名为"一种处 理液供给装置"，专利申请号为PCT/CN2025/099031，国际公布日为2026年2月19日。 专利详情如下： 图片来源：世界知识产权组织（WIPO） ...

Core Viewpoint - The global chip tool manufacturers are expected to achieve double-digit revenue growth for the first time in three quarters, driven by increasing demand for AI computing capabilities [2]. Group 1: Revenue Growth Expectations - Nine major chip tool suppliers based in Japan, the US, and Europe are projected to see a 16% year-over-year increase in quarterly revenue, surpassing the previous quarter's growth of 8% [2]. - The expected net profit for the quarter is anticipated to grow by 20%, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of double-digit profit growth, following a 26% increase in the prior three months [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The primary driver of this growth is the capacity expansion by chip manufacturers, with TSMC announcing plans to increase capital investment to a historical high by 2026, and SK Hynix and Samsung also planning to boost investments this year [2]. - ASML expects a revenue increase of approximately 10% for the January to March quarter, with a notable improvement in market outlook as stated by CEO Christoph Hock [3]. Group 3: Regional Sales and Market Trends - Tokyo Electron has raised its six-month new equipment sales forecast in response to accelerated delivery demands, with many clients opting to retrofit existing equipment to maintain operations [4]. - The global market for front-end equipment is expected to grow by 15% to 20% this year, with DRAM chip tools being a significant growth driver [4]. - Despite ongoing US-China tensions, sales of chip manufacturing tools to China have increased, with total revenue from eight companies in the Chinese market rising by 8% to $10.2 billion, accounting for over 30% of total sales [4]. Group 4: Challenges and Regulatory Environment - ASML's sales to China have grown by about 60%, primarily due to the sale of older generation lithography equipment not subject to export restrictions [5]. - The Chinese market's share in ASML's revenue is expected to decline from 33% in 2025 to around 20% [5]. - The US government has raised concerns regarding chip tool manufacturers profiting from sales to China, leading to legal actions such as Applied Materials agreeing to pay a $252 million fine for illegal exports [5].