Report Overview - Report Title: BHP and Chinese Miners' Negotiation Stalemate Has Limited Short-Term Impact [3] - Report Date: October 9, 2025 [2] - Report Author: CITIC Futures Research Institute, Black Building Materials Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The short-term impact on BHP's shipping volume is expected to be small, remaining at a level comparable to the same period last year, and the news has a limited impact on the futures price. Continued attention should be paid to the progress of the negotiation between the two sides [6]. Summary by Directory Negotiation Situation - Bloomberg reported that due to the negotiation deadlock, the consultation between BHP and Chinese iron ore traders may last for several months or even extend to early 2026. As BHP has sold most of the iron ore for November and December delivery, the quantity shipped to China has hardly been affected. The impact of China's suspension of purchases may gradually appear when BHP starts selling ore for January 2026 delivery [4]. Fundamental Situation - In 2024, BHP's total shipping volume (calculated at 100% equity) was approximately 290 million tons, of which about 250 million tons were shipped to China, accounting for about 86% of its total shipping volume and 19% of the total iron ore arrivals at 47 Chinese ports. As of October 3, 2025, BHP had shipped 189 million tons to China, a year-on-year decrease of 3.15 million tons [5]. Future Outlook - If the Bloomberg report is true, the short-term impact on BHP's shipping volume is expected to be small, remaining at a level comparable to the same period last year, and the news has a limited impact on the futures price. Continued attention should be paid to the progress of the negotiation between the two sides [6].

Core Viewpoint - Guangdong Mingzhu (600382.SH) is expected to report a significant increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by the "Expansion Project" which has boosted its iron concentrate business, with net profit projected to exceed 215 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 8 to 10 times [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 215 million to 263 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 858.45% to 1071.44% [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is also expected to be in the range of 215 million to 263 million yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 428.49% to 545.93% [1] - Mingzhu Mining's net profit is projected to reach 244 million to 298 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year increase of approximately 280.43% to 364.98% [1] Group 2: Business Operations - The increase in production and sales of iron concentrate is attributed to the new mining output from the Expansion Project and the completion of a technical upgrade of the washing stone production line, which has enhanced iron concentrate output [1] - The iron concentrate sales volume for Mingzhu Mining is expected to increase by approximately 212.49% year-on-year [1] - The overall growth in the iron ore business is supported by the recovery in the iron ore industry during the third quarter, contributing to the explosive growth in Guangdong Mingzhu's performance [1] Group 3: Market Context - Analysts note that the iron ore futures market experienced a strong upward trend in July, supported by "anti-involution" policies and a tight supply-demand balance, with continued strong performance into August and September [2] - The slight positive growth in terminal steel demand has shifted industry sentiment from pessimism to a more moderate outlook, leading steel mills to replenish their iron ore and coke inventories, which has bolstered mineral prices [2] - The pre-announced performance for the third quarter validates Guangdong Mingzhu's strategic foresight in its industry chain layout and highlights the value of upgrading subsidiary operations to strengthen its core business [2]

格隆汇10月9日｜广东明珠公告，预计2025年前三季度净利润为2.15亿元到2.63亿元，与上年同期相比， 预计将增加1.93亿元到2.41亿元，同比增长858.45%到1,071.44%。扣除非经常性损益后的净利润预计为 2.15亿元到2.63亿元，同比增长428.49%到545.93%。业绩增长主要得益于全资子公司明珠矿业经营业绩 增加，铁精粉产销量同比增加，以及非经营性损益的影响。 ...

Group 1: Iron Ore Market Dynamics - BHP's insistence on signing long-term contracts at $109.5 per ton, despite spot iron ore prices dropping to $80 per ton, reflects a monopolistic mindset and disregard for Chinese market demands [1][3] - 90% of BHP's iron ore exports go to China, indicating that a halt in Chinese purchases would severely impact BHP and Australia's fiscal revenue [3] - The commencement of production at Guinea's Simandou iron ore mine is leading to a global oversupply, reducing China's reliance on Australian iron ore [3] Group 2: Soybean Trade Shifts - China has not purchased U.S. soybeans for five consecutive months, shifting its sourcing to Brazil, Argentina, Russia, Ethiopia, and Tanzania [5] - As the largest soybean consumer, China's market power influences global agricultural production, affecting U.S. farmers who are struggling due to the trade war [5] Group 3: Breakthroughs in Battery Technology - China has achieved significant advancements in solid-state battery technology, which could revolutionize the global electric vehicle industry by replacing traditional lithium-ion batteries [6] - The cost control capabilities of Chinese companies in bringing this cutting-edge technology to the mass market are noteworthy [6] Group 4: China's Economic Ascendancy - The developments in iron ore, soybeans, and battery technology indicate that China is gaining dominance in the global economy, with increased market power and negotiation leverage [8] - The current global economic landscape is shifting, challenging the post-World War II U.S. hegemony, with China positioned at the center of this transformation [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the changing dynamics of Australia's trade relationships, particularly with China, and the implications for its key exports like iron ore and gold, amidst geopolitical tensions and shifts in global currency usage [1][3][5]. Group 1: Trade Relations and Exports - Since Albanese took office, Australia has restored normal trade relations with China, which is crucial for its economy that heavily relies on exports like iron ore and wine [1]. - Iron ore remains Australia's most significant export, but recent developments have raised concerns about its future, especially with the rise of Russia as a key supplier to China [10][15]. - By June 2026, gold is expected to become Australia's second-largest export, benefiting from increased production and rising prices, while liquefied natural gas will lose its position as the second-largest export [8]. Group 2: Currency and Economic Implications - The U.S. is particularly concerned about the potential decline of the dollar's global status due to Australia's iron ore exports and China's increasing use of the yuan in international trade [3][5]. - Australia's media warns that refusing to accept yuan for iron ore transactions could lead to significant economic losses, while accepting it may strain relations with the U.S. [13][17]. - By the 2025-2026 fiscal year, iron ore revenue is projected to decrease to 113 billion AUD, a drop of 3.9 billion AUD from previous estimates, indicating a challenging outlook for this key export [11].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decision by BHP Group to conduct iron ore transactions with Chinese buyers using RMB signifies a major shift in international financial dynamics, challenging the dominance of the US dollar and reflecting changing global trade relationships [1][4]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - Australia has seen over 1.2 trillion RMB in iron ore trade with China over the past seven years, with significant daily shipments [3]. - The bargaining power of Chinese buyers has increased, as China is now the largest steel producer and has developed new mining operations in Brazil and Guinea [3][4]. Group 2: Currency Trends - The internationalization of the RMB is accelerating, with a 37% increase in cross-border trade settlements in RMB last year, and various countries beginning to accept RMB for trade [6]. - The credibility of the US dollar is declining, with the US national debt exceeding 31 trillion USD and significant currency exchange losses impacting Australian mining companies [6][8]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - The move by Australian companies to use RMB for transactions is a strategic decision to mitigate currency risk and invest in China's clean energy projects, aligning with China's industrial upgrades [8]. - This shift indicates a broader transformation in global economic structures, as emerging economies redefine traditional financial orders, reminiscent of the transition from the pound to the dollar [10].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing confrontation between China and Australia's BHP over iron ore procurement is not merely a commercial negotiation but a strategic battle aimed at redefining the long-standing pricing power in the global iron ore market [3][5][30] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The global iron ore supply is predominantly controlled by three major companies: BHP, Rio Tinto, and Vale, which together account for 61% of global seaborne exports [5][9] - China, as the largest buyer, has hundreds of steel companies acting independently, leading to a fragmented purchasing power that disadvantages them in negotiations [7][9] - It is estimated that this pricing imbalance could cost China over a thousand billion dollars in additional expenses for importing Australian iron ore this year [7] Group 2: Strategic Moves by China - In 2022, China established the China Mineral Resources Group (CMSG) to consolidate procurement from state-owned steel companies, transforming the negotiation dynamics from many small buyers to a single large buyer [9][12] - The Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, with over 2 billion tons of proven reserves and an average grade of 65%, is seen as a critical asset for China to enhance its bargaining power [12][14] - China has invested over 30 billion dollars in the Simandou project, which is expected to produce 12 million tons annually, representing about 10% of China's total iron ore imports [14][18] Group 3: Recent Developments - A recent fatal accident at the Simandou site has led to a suspension of operations, which could weaken China's negotiating position against BHP [16][18] - BHP's strong stance is under pressure as 70% of its iron ore exports are dependent on the Chinese market, and attempts to find alternative markets have been largely unsuccessful [20][22] Group 4: Currency and Geopolitical Implications - China's demands include establishing a new pricing mechanism closer to the spot market and using the renminbi for transactions, challenging the long-standing dominance of the US dollar in international commodity markets [26][28] - The internal divisions among Australian mining companies, with some like FMG agreeing to use renminbi for transactions, indicate a shift in alliances that could further weaken BHP's position [22][24] - The broader implications of this struggle extend beyond commercial interests to geopolitical dynamics, as the US has expressed concern over the potential shift in currency usage for strategic commodities [26][30]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Mineral Resources Group (CMRC) has requested domestic buyers to suspend purchases of BHP's iron ore priced in USD, indicating a strategic shift in China's approach to iron ore supply chains and pricing [1][3]. Group 1: Strategic Decisions - The decision to suspend purchases follows unsuccessful negotiations between China and Australia, signaling China's intent to reshape the iron ore supply chain and assert pricing power [3][5]. - By pricing iron ore in RMB, China aims to reduce costs, increase profits, and facilitate the internationalization of the RMB [4][12]. Group 2: Impact of the Guinea Mine Incident - A safety accident at the Simandou iron ore mine in Guinea, involving the death of three workers, has led to the suspension of operations and safety inspections [4][13]. - The timing of this incident is critical, as it coincides with China's negotiations with BHP, potentially affecting China's bargaining position [13]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - China's demand for iron ore constitutes over 70% of Australia's iron ore exports, making it a crucial customer for Australian suppliers [8][11]. - The emergence of the Simandou mine as a viable alternative source of high-quality iron ore (with a total resource of 5 billion tons and over 66% grade) strengthens China's negotiating position against BHP [11][12]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The ongoing negotiations and market dynamics surrounding iron ore pricing will continue, with China determined to maintain its stance regardless of external factors [15].

Core Insights - China has recently suspended the purchase of iron ore from Australia's BHP, raising questions about Australia's inability to leverage its abundant iron ore resources to establish a competitive steel industry like China [1][3] Group 1: Industry Overview - Australia exports iron ore worth up to $13.8 billion annually, yet it has not developed a steel industry that can compete internationally [1] - The domestic market in Australia is limited, with a population of approximately 26 million, which is smaller than the population of some provinces in China [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses China's sudden halt in purchasing iron ore from BHP, a major Australian mining company, as a strategic move to push for transactions in RMB and gain pricing power in the iron ore market [1][6][10]. Group 1: Impact on Australia - China's decision to stop purchasing iron ore from BHP directly affects Australia's economy, as iron ore exports account for over 60% of Australia's total exports to China [4][8]. - In the fiscal year 2024-2025, Australia is projected to earn AUD 116 billion from iron ore sales, which could be significantly reduced due to China's halt in purchases [8][12]. - Australia's Prime Minister Albanese expressed disappointment over the situation, emphasizing the importance of iron ore exports for both economies [6][12]. Group 2: China's Strategic Objectives - The primary objective behind China's halt in purchases is to establish RMB as the currency for iron ore transactions, reducing reliance on USD and gaining pricing power [10][22]. - China aims to change the rules of engagement in the iron ore market, moving from being a passive buyer to a key player in setting terms and prices [22][26]. - By diversifying its sources of iron ore, including increased imports from Brazil and securing mining rights in Australia, China is working towards reducing its dependency on Australian iron ore [16][26]. Group 3: Future Prospects for Australia - Australia faces a critical choice: either agree to RMB settlement and lower prices to retain the Chinese market or resist and suffer economic consequences [28][30]. - The likelihood of Australia compromising is high, given the significant financial implications of losing the Chinese market [28][30]. - As China continues to develop mining operations in Africa and South America, Australia's dominance in the iron ore market is expected to diminish [30].