Core Insights - The core insight of the article is that the adoption rate of AI among U.S. enterprises has significantly increased, indicating a robust trend in AI investment, particularly benefiting the semiconductor industry [2][3][5]. Group 1: AI Adoption Rates - The AI adoption rate among U.S. enterprises rose from 7.4% in Q4 of the previous year to 9.2% in Q2 of this year, with large enterprises (250+ employees) showing a higher adoption rate of 14.9% [2][9]. - Industries such as education, information, finance, and professional services reported the largest increases in AI adoption, with growth exceeding 3 percentage points [9]. - Medium-sized enterprises (100-249 employees) are expected to see the largest increase in AI adoption over the next six months, with an anticipated rise of 4.7 percentage points to 14.6% [9]. Group 2: Semiconductor Industry Impact - The semiconductor industry is projected to benefit significantly from the AI investment wave, with revenue forecasts for 2025 being raised by $200 billion due to the AI boom [5]. - Analysts have also increased revenue forecasts for other AI hardware companies by $105 billion since the launch of ChatGPT [5]. - The semiconductor industry's revenue is expected to grow by 36% by the end of 2026 compared to current levels, reflecting the sustained interest in AI investments [2][5]. Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - Despite the rapid growth in AI adoption, the impact on the labor market remains limited, with most labor market indicators showing no significant effects [10]. - AI-related job vacancies currently account for 24% of all IT job vacancies and 1.5% of all job postings [11]. - The productivity paradox suggests that while AI adoption is limited, the effects on productivity in deployed areas are significant, with average productivity increases of 23% in academic research and approximately 29% in corporate examples [11][12].

当市场还在消化特朗普关税政策的余震时，亚洲股市却在5月迎来了一场上涨潮。 经历了连续四个月的净流出后，外资在5月大举回归亚洲股市。LSEG数据显示，投资者在印度、韩国、 泰国、印尼、越南和菲律宾等市场累计净买入约106.5亿美元股票，这是自2024年2月以来的最大月度净 买入规模。 据央视新闻报道，5月12日，中美联合声明，宣布90天内暂停实施24%关税。市场对亚洲出口商利润率 和地区供应链冲击的担忧逐步缓解，促使此前大幅撤离的投资者重新布局。 亚洲股市迎来15个月最大外资流入：关税恐慌消退后的资本回流 在这轮资金回流中，中国台湾股市表现最为亮眼，吸引外资净流入72.8亿美元，创下自2023年11月以来 的最大月度跨境净买入规模。这一资金流向很大程度上受益于AI相关投资热潮，特别是沙特阿拉伯向 美国企业投入的6000亿美元AI相关投资，预计将显著利好中国台湾市场。 印度市场同样表现抢眼，外资净买入23.4亿美元，为2024年9月以来的最大月度净买入。韩国、印尼和 菲律宾股市也分别获得8.85亿美元、3.38亿美元和2.9亿美元的净流入。值得注意的是，泰国股市却逆势 遭遇4.91亿美元的净卖出。 高盛已将MSC ...

赤字以及债市担忧情绪蔓延下，高盛客户已 开始减少美国资产超配 ，加速美元风险对冲。 (图片由豆包AI生成 提示词警报灯亮起） 当华尔街最具影响力的投行开始踩刹车时，市场该紧张了。 面对难以预测的关税政策风暴与飙升的赤字隐忧，华尔街金融巨头高盛正罕见地选择"龟缩"—— 削减风险敞口，囤积现金，力求自保。 实际上，不是只是高盛，包括加拿大魁北克储蓄投资集团、橡树资本等在内的多家大型机构已开始 减少对美投资，转向欧洲等更具稳定性的市场。 启动"风控机制"，高盛不玩了 高盛总裁兼首席运营官John Waldron作为高盛的二号人物，被广泛视为下任CEO的有力竞争者。 Waldron在周四发布的播客中透露，自特朗普4月2日宣布对贸易伙伴全面加征关税以来， 该行已"适度调整了我们的风险头寸" 。 Waldron表示：只要有机会，我们就会降低风险，尽量让业务开展、资金投放等方面更贴近熟悉、稳定的基础领域。 他表示，这种风险偏好的降低将主要体现在资本市场业务和为客户提供交易便利的过程中。他解释道，高盛将"更加珍惜流动性， 保留更多缓冲资金 "，并采取更 为平衡的策略，而非过度激进。 他预期将出现 "慢胀" 局面——1%至1. ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs predicts that new home prices in China may decline by 20% to 25% from now until the end of 2025, with a stabilization expected by the end of 2025 [3][6] - The basis for Goldman Sachs' prediction includes a staggering debt related to real estate amounting to 59 trillion and an inventory level projected to reach 93 trillion by the end of 2024 [6] - The previous prediction by Goldman Sachs suggested that prices would not stabilize until the third quarter of 2027, indicating a rapid change in outlook within a short time frame [10] Group 2 - The current market situation shows a divergence between first-tier cities, where the market is stabilizing, and third- and fourth-tier cities, which continue to struggle with high inventory and declining prices [12][14] - In many third- and fourth-tier cities, prices have dropped by over 30%, with some areas experiencing even steeper declines, leading to a cautious sentiment among potential buyers [12] - The recommendation for potential homebuyers is to approach the market rationally, considering personal financial situations and market conditions before making decisions [14][19]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "green light" for the short-term outlook of US equities, indicating a positive investment sentiment [2]. Core Insights - The market is experiencing upward momentum until summer technicals and economic data come into play, with investors likely to be halted before any significant drawdown occurs [3]. - Retail investors are actively buying dips in US equities, while institutional activity remains muted [2]. - Robust liquidity is noted, with top of book liquidity at $11.08 million, above the one-year average of $10.65 million, supporting healthy trading in the near term [7][8]. Summary by Sections Market Setup - The report highlights a preference for specific trades, including SPX call spreads and hedging strategies for long positions [5]. - The liquidity environment is described as supportive for trading, although it may lose momentum as summer approaches [8]. Trading Activity - US equities have seen net buying for six consecutive sessions, with a notable increase in long buys, indicating strong market interest [27]. - The overall gross leverage has increased to 289.2%, placing it in the 95th percentile for the past year, driven by short leverage [28][29]. Seasonal Trends - The report notes that early to mid-June typically sees moderate market increases, providing a favorable trading environment, especially for bearish long-term views [64]. ETF Flows - Significant inflows into factor ETFs were observed, with May being the best month for inflows since the election, indicating strong investor interest in momentum strategies [43][50]. - The report also mentions a growing interest from global investors in emerging market equities due to USD weakness and US growth uncertainty [54].

当华尔街最具影响力的投行开始踩刹车时，市场该紧张了。 面对难以预测的关税政策风暴与飙升的赤字隐忧，华尔街金融巨头高盛正罕见地选择"龟缩"——削减风 险敞口，囤积现金，力求自保。 据英国《金融时报》6月5日报道，高盛总裁兼首席运营官John Waldron在周四发布的播客中透露，自特 朗普4月2日宣布对贸易伙伴全面加征关税以来，该行已"适度调整了我们的风险头寸"。Waldron表示： 只要有机会，我们就会降低风险，尽量让业务开展、资金投放等方面更贴近熟悉、稳定的基 础领域。 他表示，这种风险偏好的降低将主要体现在资本市场业务和为客户提供交易便利的过程中。他解释道， 高盛将"更加珍惜流动性，保留更多缓冲资金"，并采取更为平衡的策略，而非过度激进。 Waldron作为高盛的二号人物，他被广泛视为下任CEO的有力竞争者。 Waldron加入了包括摩根大通CEO Jamie Dimon和贝莱德CEO Larry Fink在内的华尔街巨头行列，对美国 赤字支出前景发出警告。他表示： 削减赤字对我们来说是当务之急。赤字正变得相当庞大，如果要在可预见的未来保持这种步 伐，我认为是不可持续的。 当被问及投资者是否因关税和赤字担 ...

消费方面，摩根士丹利预计家庭消费实际增速将于今明两年分别达到4.9%及4.6%。消费回暖或主要得 益于以旧换新，其扩容之后将包含更多的非耐用品。考虑到国补的3000亿元人民币额度，叠加上一些地 方的配套补贴，总补贴规模或达到家庭消费的0.7%左右。此外，定向的生育补贴、"消费瓶颈"（如汽车 牌照限制）减少，以及对服务业的信贷支持也将温和提振消费。 股市方面，报告称，鉴于股本回报率、近期盈利、地缘政治紧张局势缓和等带来的结构性改善，摩根士 丹利上调中国股指的目标点位。摩根士丹利2月上调中国权重的主要原因，现在仍然成立：企业自救和 股东回报提升使股本回报率触底回升，估值区间上移，特别是离岸股票市场；政府对私营部门的支持得 到确认；AI、科技、智能制造领域出现了能够引领全球技术竞争的科技领袖。 摩根士丹利研究部近日发布中国经济和股市年中展望报告表示，上调对2025年中国经济增速预期以及中 国股指目标。 该报告显示，摩根士丹利将今明两年的经济增速预测分别从此前的4.2%和4.0%，上调至4.5%和4.2%。 外部冲击的缓和，也降低了增量政策出台的紧迫性。现行的政策框架旨在为经济托底，重视科技创新， 稳健推进经济再平衡 ...

据央视新闻报道，当地时间6月3日，韩国广播公司KBS、韩联社等多家媒体称，李在明已确定当选新一届韩国总统。 李在明上任首日，韩国债券市场迅速作出反应。周三，韩国10年期国债收益率大涨超过10个基点至2.90%，30年期韩国国债拍卖 投标倍数创下自2022年4月以来新低。 市场担忧，李总统将开启韩国财政扩张时代，他此前多次承诺，将加大财政支出力度来促进经济增长，这可能导致政府债券供应 量大幅上升，甚至可能超过今年原定计划。 债券供应"洪水"或将持续至明年 韩国财政部今年已计划发行207.1万亿韩元（1507亿美元）的政府债券。但多家机构预测显示，真正的大手笔还在后头。 摩根士丹利预计李在明政府将在今年第三季度推出第二轮刺激计划，至少35万亿韩元，而荷兰国际集团（ING）预测这一刺激计 划可能高达40到45万亿韩元。 SK证券分析师Yun Wontae表示： "第二轮额外预算为30万亿韩元，意味着政府债券发行将增加25万亿韩元。因此，2025年总的债券发行量可能达到230 万亿韩元。" Hana证券更悲观，预期明年韩国政府债务的发行量可能进一步上升，达到246万亿韩元。 韩华证券分析师Kim Sungsoo也指出 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 22nd Nomura Asia Investment Forum highlights the complexities of the current market environment, emphasizing the need for strategic adaptation and collaboration to seize emerging opportunities amidst challenges [2][5]. Group 1: Market Environment - The ongoing trade disputes have caused significant market volatility and disrupted traditional trade flows, leading to a re-evaluation of production layouts and global business strategies by many companies [5]. - Technological advancements, geopolitical shifts, and continuous economic policy adjustments present both challenges and opportunities for businesses [5]. Group 2: Company Strategy and Performance - Despite market fluctuations, the global market business of the company has demonstrated remarkable resilience and adaptability, reflecting strategic initiatives and client trust [6]. - The company aims to leverage its local advantages in Japan to build a robust revenue system across various business segments [6]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Positive signals from the Chinese economy have prompted the company to raise its GDP growth forecast for China to 4.5% for the year [7]. - India is identified as an attractive market with long-term opportunities, and the company is keen to expand its client base there [6]. Group 4: Forum Insights - The forum brings together experts from various fields, including economics, markets, geopolitics, tariff policies, asset allocation, and technology, to provide multi-dimensional insights [8]. - Approximately 850 investors and 140 companies are participating in the forum, indicating strong interest and engagement in the discussions [8].

去年年底以来，⬀策层及官媒开始营造反内ⷑ的社会氛围。而⯆造业信贷的放 缓、部⮇过Ⱁ行业投资回落以及工业企业⮵润的温和修复似乎显示了再平衡已⮤ 见成效。然而，一家头部新能源车企于周一大幅降价促销，引发了市场ⲁ荡，同 时也重新引发了市场对于中国经济和再通胀⯥景的辩论。 对工业企业⮵润的进一步研究表明，根深蒂固的供需错配仍在⯆约中国的再通 胀。考虑⮽通过债ⱷ推ⲁ的强⯌激政策或已成为过去式，我们认为中国目⯥的再 平衡和再通胀需要伴随一些结构性的改革，ⴎ括社会福⮵的改善、债ⱷ重组、税 ⯆改革以及营造有⮵于增长的监管环境。上述改革皆有难度，因此我们认为实施 的步伐将是循序渐进的，再通胀短期内仍具挑战，而中长期内也无坦途。 #1. 工业企业利润修复主要由于销量以及降本增效，然而定价能力仍然羸弱。 我们可以将工业企业利润增速拆分为三项：售价（使用PPI来观察）、⮵润率（统 计局数据）以及销量（ Exhibit 1 ）。拆⮇后我们可以总结三点： 1.利润率受基数影响，夸大了整体利润增速的改善：去年三季度之后，工业企业⮵ 润同比增速现了明显的反弹，从去年9月份-27%的低谷一路上ⶍ⮽今年4月份 的3.3%。然而，去年三季度⮵润增 ...