1. Core View - The report draws inspiration from the "Book of Lord Shang" to discuss strategies for futures investment, aiming to establish a long - term winning system in the zero - sum game of the futures market [2] 2. Specific Strategies Investment Must Establish Rules - The root cause of losses in the futures market is the prevalence of human governance, lax discipline, and arbitrariness. Futures investment should follow a trading system, position rules, stop - loss rules, and execution standards, with no exceptions for profits or losses [3] Investment Must Stick to the Fundamentals - In the futures market, short - term fluctuations, frequent intraday trading, etc. are "frivolous pursuits", while the real "cultivation and battle" is to seize the main trend, focus on certainty, and abandon ineffective opportunities [4] Investment Must Strengthen Risk Control - In the futures market, stop - loss is for survival, and risk control is for protection. Traders should actively stop losses, strictly control positions, and set preset bottom - lines to avoid catastrophic risks [5] Investment Must Adapt to Changes - The market is constantly changing, and no single method can be applicable forever. Traders should adhere to the fundamentals of risk control and trends while adapting to market structural changes [6] Investment Must Strengthen Principal - In futures investment, the focus should be on strengthening the principal and achieving stable compound interest. Traders should avoid frequent trading, over - trading, and blind heavy - positions [8] Investment Success Lies in Execution - The biggest internal consumption in the futures market is emotional and subjective internal consumption and meaningless trading. Traders should strictly follow rules, execute signals, and act in line with the trend [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On March 3, the current - month contracts of the four major index futures all declined. IF fell 1.29%, IH fell 0.83%, IC fell 4.24%, and IM fell 3.57% [2] - On this trading day, the total trading volume of index futures rebounded, indicating an increase in investors' trading enthusiasm. The total trading volume of IF increased by 37,821 lots, IH by 17,839 lots, IC by 82,526 lots, and IM by 67,713 lots. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF increased by 384 lots, IH by 1,678 lots, IC by 20,482 lots, and IM by 18,912 lots [3] - Tuesday's market shows that the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.43% to 4,122.68 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 3.07%, the ChiNext Index fell 2.57%, and the Wind All - A Index fell 2.97%. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 1.12% to 25,768.08 points. U.S. stocks also declined, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.83%, the S&P 500 Index falling 0.94%, and the NASDAQ Composite Index falling 1.02% [9][10] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Index Futures Data - **CSI 300 and Related Futures**: The closing price of CSI 300 was 4,655.9, down 1.54%. IF2603 closed at 4,651.4, down 1.29% with a basis of - 4.5, and so on for different contracts [2] - **SSE 50 and Related Futures**: The closing price of SSE 50 was 3,014.27, down 1.06%. IH2603 closed at 3,019, down 0.83% with a basis of 4.73 [2] - **CSI 500 and Related Futures**: The closing price of CSI 500 was 8,281.61, down 4.35%. IC2603 closed at 8,266.2, down 4.24% with a basis of - 15.41 [2] - **CSI 1000 and Related Futures**: The closing price of CSI 1000 was 8,142.45, down 3.95%. IM2603 closed at 8,129.4, down 3.57% with a basis of - 13.05 [2] 2. Top 20 Member Position Changes - For different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM, the changes in long and short positions of the top 20 member institutions are provided. For example, in IF2603, long positions decreased by 2,507 and short positions decreased by 4,717 [6] 3. Trend Strength - The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and the trend strength of IC and IM is 1. The range of trend strength is an integer in the interval [- 2,2], with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [7] 4. Important Drivers - The 2026 National Two Sessions are about to start. The Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference will be held from March 4 to 11, and the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress will open on March 5 [8] - Kevin Warsh, the nominee for Federal Reserve Chairman, will slowly advance the Fed's balance - sheet reduction, aiming to restore the Fed's balance - sheet size to the pre - 2008 crisis level [8] - U.S. President Trump made tough statements during his meeting with German Chancellor Merz, covering issues such as the Iranian situation, relations with European allies, and oil price trends [8] 5. Market Performance - The A - share market showed a general decline on Tuesday. The market turnover reached 3.16 trillion yuan. The oil, gas, and shipping sectors rose due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, while the military, non - ferrous metals, semiconductor, and computing hardware sectors declined [9] - The Hong Kong stock market also declined. The energy sectors such as gas and oil rose, while technology, non - ferrous metals, semiconductor, military, and photovoltaic sectors were weak [9] - U.S. stocks fell across the board. Multiple negative factors such as cautious expectations of Fed policy, tense Middle East situation, and concerns about inflation rebound and economic growth prospects put pressure on the market [10]

Oil Market - Brent crude oil prices surged over 9% to reach $85 per barrel before retreating slightly, remaining above $81 per barrel, driven by Middle Eastern geopolitical conflicts and supply disruptions [2] - Iraq has closed the giant Rumaila oil field due to tanker access issues in the Persian Gulf, potentially reducing output by up to 3 million barrels per day if the situation persists [2] - The ongoing military tensions, particularly with the UAE considering military action against Iran, are expected to keep geopolitical risk premiums high until stability is restored [2] Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced a significant decline due to escalating US-Iran tensions, a strengthening dollar, and rising oil prices, which heightened economic outlook concerns [3] - The volatility in precious metals is expected to continue, with future trends largely dependent on the developments in the conflict [3] Base Metals - Copper prices fell, influenced by geopolitical tensions and a strong dollar, despite a slight recovery in domestic demand [4] - Aluminum prices showed an upward trend, with concerns over supply reductions from the Middle East, although the specific impact remains unclear [5] - Zinc prices are under pressure due to high inventories and a lack of buying interest from downstream sectors, necessitating lower prices to stimulate demand [8] Lithium and Industrial Materials - Lithium carbonate prices hit a limit down, with total inventory decreasing by 2,900 tons to 100,000 tons, while smelter inventories increased [12] - Industrial silicon production is expected to rise due to increased output from major producers, but demand remains weak, leading to inventory accumulation [13] Steel and Iron Ore - Steel prices are fluctuating, with rebar demand recovering post-holiday but overall production remaining low [15] - Iron ore prices are under pressure from high global shipping volumes and increased domestic port inventories, despite a slight recovery in demand [16] Chemical Products - The price of methanol is expected to rise due to geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains, particularly in the Persian Gulf [25] - Polypropylene prices are supported by rising raw material costs, although high inventory levels pose challenges [28] Agricultural Products - Soybean prices are experiencing fluctuations due to weather conditions in Brazil, with production estimates being revised downwards [35] - Domestic vegetable oil prices are expected to rise in response to increasing energy prices driven by geopolitical tensions [36] Livestock - Live pig prices continue to decline, with several provinces reporting prices below 10 yuan per kilogram, indicating significant market pressure [39] - Egg prices are adjusting downwards post-holiday, with a long-term trend indicating a decrease in laying hen stocks [40]

| | 1、央行公告称，3月3日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了343亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量343亿 | | --- | --- | | | 元，中标量343亿元。Wind数据显示，当日5260亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净回笼4917亿元。央行公布2026年2 月中央银行各项工具流动性投放情况。中央银行贷款方面，中期借贷便利（MLF）净投放3000亿元；公开市场业务方 | | | 面，7天期逆回购净回笼1205亿元，公开市场国债买卖净投放500亿元。 2、2026年全国两会即将启幕。全国政协十四届四次会议将于3月4日下午3时开幕，3月11日上午闭幕，会期7天。大会 | | | 主要议程包括：听取和审议全国政协常委会工作报告和提案工作情况的报告；列席十四届全国人大四次会议，听取并 | | | 讨论政府工作报告以及其他有关报告，讨论国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划纲要草案；审议通过全国政协十四 | | | 届四次会议政治决议等。十四届全国人大四次会议将于3月5日开幕，3月4日12时举行新闻发布会，大会发言人就大会 | | | 议程和人大工作相关问题回答中外记者提问。 | | | 3、 ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 3 月 4 日 0 / 51 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：避险情绪进一步升温 4 | | --- | | 国债期货：债市窄幅波动 5 | | 蛋白粕：市场扰动增加 | 粕类高位震荡 6 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际油价大涨 | 国际糖价冲高回落 6 | | 油脂板块：油脂波动加大 8 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：产区现货上涨，盘面高位震荡 9 | | | 生猪：供应压力增加 | 猪价震荡运行 9 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面底部震荡 10 | | | 鸡蛋：节后进入淡季 | 蛋价稳中有落 11 | | 苹果：库存低需求好转 | 苹果好货价格坚挺 12 | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面有所支撑 | 棉价短期震荡 13 | | 钢材：两会间钢价延续震荡 14 | | --- | | 双焦：地缘冲突加剧，震荡偏强运行 14 | | 铁矿：地缘冲突加大，矿价震荡运行 15 | | 铁合金：盈亏比降低，多单部分止盈 16 | | 金银：中东冲突风险重估 冲击市场情绪 17 | | --- | | 铂钯：能源类价格高涨 再通胀担 ...

金融研究 交易策略：中长期，我们维持做多经济的判断，当下以股指做多头替代有一定超额，推荐逢低配置各 品种远期合约。 风险提示：外生宏观冲击、财政扩张进度不及预期、其他系统性冲击。 市场表现：3 月 3 日，国债期货走平，活跃合约中，TS 上涨 0.01%，TF 走平，T 下跌 0.01%，TL 上涨 0.09%。 现券：目前活跃合约为 2606 合约，2 年期国债期货 CTD 券为 250024.IB，收益率变动-0.75bps，对应 净基差 0.021，IRR1.38%；5 年期国债期货 CTD 券为 250014.IB，收益率变动+0.13bps，对应净基差 2026年3月4日 星期三 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 股指期货 市场表现：3 月 3 日，A 股四大股指有所下跌，其中上证指数下跌 1.43%，报收 4122.68 点；深成指 下跌 3.07%，报收 14022.39 点；创业板指下跌 2.57%，报收 3209.48 点；科创 50 指数下跌 5.21%， 报收 1388.41 点。市场成交 31,576 亿元，较前日增加 1,118 亿元。行业板块方面，石油石化(+6.75%)， 煤炭( ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - For the Middle East geopolitical conflict, it is necessary to use the "risk preference shock" framework for analysis. The current conflict has not shaken the underlying framework of the five major global market macro narratives, but has strengthened the trading priority of the long - term geopolitical narrative. The impact depth of this conflict on the market mainly depends on the disruption degree and duration of the Strait of Hormuz. Attention should be paid to the intensity of the conflict and two core signals to determine the peak of the conflict intensity. There is a risk of the risk preference shock evolving into a liquidity crisis [2]. - The Middle East conflict has hit the global market risk preference, and the A - share market has also been affected. The geopolitical risk is high, and the market volatility has increased. It is recommended to appropriately reduce positions [4]. - In the bond market, short - term bonds perform slightly better due to loose liquidity, while medium - and long - term bonds show a narrow - range oscillation. It is recommended to hold a small number of medium - term long positions in T2606 and temporarily wait and see in the short term [5]. - In the commodity market, the prices of various commodities are affected by the Middle East situation. For different varieties, corresponding investment strategies are proposed, such as focusing on structural long - making opportunities for lithium carbonate after the correction, and taking a long - position layout on dips for industrial silicon in the medium term [7][9]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: Continue to focus on the Middle East situation. The statements of Fed officials show uncertainty about interest rate cuts in 2026 due to the war situation. The Iran situation is tense, with various events such as the destruction of US missile defense systems by Iran, and the consideration of military actions by some countries. The US Senate will vote on the "war powers resolution" [1]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The RMB depreciated against the US dollar. The strength of the US dollar is supported by Trump's tough stance on the Iran issue and relevant news about the Fed Chairman nominee. The subsequent impact on the US dollar index and the USD/CNY exchange rate depends on whether the conflict is a blitzkrieg or a protracted war. Short - term export enterprises are recommended to lock in forward exchange settlement at around 6.93, and import enterprises are recommended to adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at around 6.82 [2][3]. - **Stock Index**: The escalation of the Middle East conflict has reduced market risk preference, causing the stock index to fall. The uncertainty of geopolitical risks is high, and it is recommended to reduce positions to avoid risks [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market did not get a boost from the sharp decline in the A - share market. Short - term bonds perform slightly better due to loose liquidity. It is recommended to hold a small number of medium - term long positions in T2606 and temporarily wait and see in the short term [5]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price of lithium carbonate has dropped significantly. Affected by the Middle East situation, the market risk - aversion sentiment has increased, leading to a phased tightening of liquidity. It is recommended to focus on structural long - making opportunities after the correction and downstream enterprises can replenish inventory at low prices [7]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures have fallen. The short - term price of industrial silicon is affected by the macro sentiment and its own weak fundamentals, but there is strong bottom support in the medium and long term. It is recommended to take a long - position layout on dips. The photovoltaic industry needs to wait for capacity clearance and the improvement of the supply - demand pattern [8][9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The escalation of the US - Iran situation may affect the import and export of the Middle East aluminum industry chain and increase the cost of electrolytic aluminum. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options for Shanghai aluminum. The spot price of alumina has rebounded, and it is recommended to sell deep out - of - the - money put options. For cast aluminum alloy, it is recommended to pay attention to the price difference with aluminum [12][13]. - **Copper**: The copper price has weakened. The market speculation degree has decreased, and the copper price has fallen below the important support range. It is recommended that non - position holders wait and see or consider buying out - of - the - money call options, and industrial customers can consider replenishing inventory [13][16]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price is weak in the short term due to liquidity issues and the overall pressure of the sector. It is expected to be strong in the medium term [17]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel have fallen. The supply - shortage logic has been broken, but the actual industrial impact remains to be seen. The demand is expected to be boosted in the peak season, and the inventory of stainless steel has accumulated recently [18]. - **Tin**: The tin price has dropped sharply and is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The supply is tight, and the demand has started to resume work [18][19]. - **Lead**: The lead price is expected to fluctuate. The current supply - demand pattern is weak, and there is a pressure of inventory accumulation and cost support [20]. Oils and Fats and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The external market of US soybeans has risen, and the domestic market has oscillated. The supply pressure is expected to return in the second quarter. It is recommended to widen the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [21]. - **Oils**: The oil market is strong due to the geopolitical conflict. The international palm oil supply and demand situation is complex, and the domestic oil supply is sufficient. It is expected that the oil price will remain strong in the short term [21][22][23]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: The Middle East conflict has led to concerns about the tightening of the Asian fuel oil supply, supporting the Singapore fuel oil market [25]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price is driven by the cost of crude oil. The current terminal demand is low, and the supply is expected to increase. The price will follow the change of crude oil in the future [26]. Precious Metals - **Gold & Silver**: The price of precious metals has fallen sharply due to the delay of interest rate cut expectations and liquidity pressure. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish stance on precious metals and be cautious about short - term adjustment risks. It is advisable to buy on dips and replenish positions step by step [28][29]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp price is close to the previous low, and the offset paper price is close to the previous high. The pulp inventory pressure is large, and the offset paper supply - demand situation has improved. It is recommended to conduct range trading for pulp in the short term and try a long - position strategy at low prices in the medium term. For offset paper, it is recommended to try a short - position strategy at high prices [30][31][32]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene have risen. The cost support has been enhanced due to the Middle East conflict, and attention should be paid to the refinery start - up changes and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz [32][33]. - **LPG**: The LPG market is affected by the US - Iran situation. The market is concerned about the supply from the Middle East, and it is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent development of the situation [33][35]. - **Methanol**: The geopolitical conflict has a significant impact on methanol. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the conflict will affect the main methanol production areas, gas fields, and ports in Iran [35][36]. - **Plastic PP**: The prices of plastic and polypropylene have risen. The rise is driven by cost increase and the improvement of the fundamental supply - demand expectation. It is necessary to be cautious about the market correction risk if the conflict eases [36][38][39]. - **Rubber**: The natural rubber price is under pressure, and the synthetic rubber price is affected by the geopolitical conflict. The macro sentiment dominates, and the natural rubber price is expected to oscillate. The butadiene rubber cost is supported, and it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [39][44][45]. - **Urea**: The US - Iran war has an impact on the urea market, causing a "collapse of global supply" and an "explosion of domestic sentiment". It is expected to drive a price increase in the domestic market [47][48]. - **Glass Soda Ash**: The supply of soda ash may be affected by the expected overhaul, and the glass demand has not recovered yet. The supply return expectation and high inventory in the middle stream limit the price increase of glass [48][49]. - **Propylene**: The propylene price is affected by the cost and supply - demand. The cost is the dominant factor in the short term. The propane price has risen, and there is an expectation of production reduction in some olefin enterprises [49][50]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil are weak. The market has expectations for infrastructure and real estate policies, but the fundamental pressure of the finished steel still exists. The short - term policy expectations support the market, but the weak fundamentals limit the price increase space [51]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market shows a supply - demand game pattern. The supply pressure persists, and the demand is affected by seasonal restrictions and pessimistic expectations. The price has limited downward space but lacks upward drive [53]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke have risen. The risk assets may fluctuate more violently. The coking enterprises' operating rate is expected to rise slightly, and the coke may face a price cut risk in the future [53][54]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese have risen. The short - term sentiment is strong, but the black metal fundamentals are weak. The silicon manganese is affected by high inventory, and the silicon iron has a better fundamental situation [54][55]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Hogs**: The hog futures price has continued to decline. The piglet market is weak, and it is recommended to sell call options on the main hog futures contract [57][58]. - **Cotton**: The cotton futures price has fallen slightly. The domestic cotton supply - demand situation is expected to be tight this year. It is recommended to lay out long positions on dips and pay attention to the international situation and the US foreign trade policy [58][59][60]. - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar futures price has basically stood above the 5300 mark. The fundamental situation is favorable, but the international raw sugar price is under pressure. The upward space is expected to be limited [61][62]. - **Eggs**: The egg futures price has declined. The egg market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and it is recommended to sell call options on the main egg futures contract [62]. - **Apples**: The apple futures price has risen. The market is affected by the fundamentals and delivery issues. The price is likely to rise and difficult to fall, and attention should be paid to the pressure level around 10,000 [69][70]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube futures price has risen slightly. The domestic jujube supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [71][72]. - **Logs**: The log futures price is approaching the previous high. The inventory has increased significantly, and the demand has not recovered significantly. It is recommended to shift from a long - position strategy to a range - trading strategy [73].

早盘速递 2026/3/4 热点资讯 1.2026年全国两会即将启幕。全国政协十四届四次会议将于3月4日下午3时开幕，3月11日上午闭幕，会期7天。大会主要议程 包括：听取和审议全国政协常委会工作报告和提案工作情况的报告；列席十四届全国人大四次会议，听取并讨论政府工作报告 以及其他有关报告，讨论国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划纲要草案；审议通过全国政协十四届四次会议政治决议等。十 四届全国人大四次会议将于3月5日开幕，3月4日12时举行新闻发布会，大会发言人就大会议程和人大工作相关问题回答中外记 者提问。 2.中东冲突持续蔓延。伊朗在遭受密集空袭的同时持续展开反击，宣称击中中东地区多处美军目标。以色列对德黑兰发动大规 模打击，并声称摧毁大量伊朗弹道导弹相关设施。国际原子能机构确认伊朗纳坦兹核设施遭到破坏。特朗普扬言弹药"几乎无 限"、将"不惜代价"完成任务；伊朗则宣称已为长期战争做好准备。与此同时，伊朗新任最高领袖选举已进入最后阶段，或 将很快公布人选。 第 1 页，共 3 页 板块持仓 (600,000) (400,000) (200,000) 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800, ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: Trump's vow on the Iran issue and the U.S. providing insurance and naval escort for oil tankers led to a sharp decline in gold prices. The Middle - East situation continues to escalate, hitting risk appetite, but the safe - haven sentiment still supports gold, and the gold price will fluctuate. The mid - term elections are approaching, with continuous turmoil and ongoing easing, and there is still support at the macro level [4]. - Silver: Trump's statement and related news led to a sharp drop in silver prices, followed by a rebound. Risk appetite is low, and the safe - haven sentiment still exists, but the silver price is weak. The regulatory pressure remains, and the weakness of U.S. technology stocks makes it difficult for the silver price sentiment to recover [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: Trump's stance on the Iran issue, global stock market declines, a significant rise in the U.S. dollar, and a sharp fall in gold prices. The U.S. three major stock indexes and European three major stock indexes all closed down. The 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield rose 9.14 basis points to 4.036%, the U.S. dollar index rose 0.52% to 99.06, and the offshore RMB depreciated against the U.S. dollar. COMEX gold futures fell 3.99% to $5099.5 per ounce [4]. - Silver: Similar to gold, due to Trump's statement, the global stock market declined, and silver prices tumbled. COMEX silver futures fell 7.38% to $82.3 per ounce [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis is - 2.2, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures warehouse receipts is 105,060 kilograms, unchanged; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net long position increased [4]. - Silver: The basis is - 304, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1952 kilograms to 307,484 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average; the main net long position decreased [5]. 3.3. Today's Focus - A series of economic data and events are to be focused on, including Japan's February service and composite PMI final values, Australia's fourth - quarter GDP, China's February official and RatingDog manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMIs, and many other data from different countries. Also, the National Committee of the 14th Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference's fourth session and the Fed's Beige Book are to be watched [14]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - Gold: Mid - term elections are approaching, with continuous turmoil and ongoing easing, providing macro - level support. There are also factors such as global turmoil, tense U.S. - Iran relations, and the possible determination of the new Fed chairman, which increase the expectation of easing [9]. - Silver: There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include global turmoil, tense U.S. - Iran relations, the possible determination of the new Fed chairman with an increased expectation of easing, the Trump tariff issue, support from the photovoltaic and technology sectors, and low spot inventory. Negative factors include the fading marginal impact of Trump's "escape" strategy, large internal differences in the Fed, the possible suspension of interest rate cuts, and the optimistic expectation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [12][13]. 3.5. Position Data - Gold: The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold increased by 3,206 (1.93%), the short positions decreased by 931 (-2.17%), and the net position increased by 4,137 (3.36%) [37]. - Silver: The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai silver increased by 7,159 (2.59%), the short positions increased by 7,291 (2.62%), and the net position decreased by 132 (7.50%) [39]. - ETF: The SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased, while the silver ETF holdings increased slightly [42][44]. - Warehouse Receipts: COMEX gold warehouse receipts continued to decrease but remained at a high level, and Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased slightly. Shanghai silver warehouse receipts decreased slightly and were at the lowest level in the past six years, and COMEX silver warehouse receipts continued to decrease [46][48].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid the US-Iran conflict, global risk appetite is disturbed, oil prices are rising, the Fed's interest rate cut expectations are weakening, and US bond yields are climbing rapidly. It is recommended to pay attention to domestic Two Sessions policy signals and changes in the war situation and control risks [4]. - The inflation rebound still exerts potential pressure on the bond market. The endogenous power of economic recovery is not yet solid, and the strength of the credit start is weak. The US-Iran geopolitical conflict has intensified, and short-term market risk aversion sentiment is favorable for the bond market to rise. However, if the conflict lasts longer than expected, inflationary pressure may put pressure on the bond market. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate [6]. - The strengthening of the US dollar index and the rise of the 10-year US bond yield have significantly suppressed the prices of gold and silver. If the US bond yield continues to rise and the US dollar remains strong, the price of gold still has the risk of further decline. However, once the interest rate expectation changes significantly or the market risk aversion sentiment heats up again, the price of gold may rise again [7][8]. - The US's tough stance on the Middle East war has softened. Although risk appetite has been frustrated under the disturbance of the geopolitical situation, the key mineral resource attribute has strengthened to support the copper price. The short-term support for the copper price is strong, and it is expected to run in a range [11]. - The supply of aluminum in the Middle East is worried due to the closure risk of the Strait of Hormuz caused by the Middle East war. The short-term aluminum price is expected to be strong and run in a range [13]. - The zinc industry in China remains weak. The actual impact of the Iran conflict on zinc ore supply is small, but the market is still worried about trade disruptions and energy price increases. During the conflict, the zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely following the sector sentiment [15]. - Although there has been a large accumulation of lead ingots at home and abroad, the current lead price is at the lower edge of the shock range. The smelting profit of smelting enterprises that is declining marginally may narrow the surplus of lead ingots. It is expected that the lead price will stop falling and stabilize in the short term and gradually recover as the supply of lead ingots narrows [16]. - In the medium term, the RKAB quota reduction policy in Indonesia is gradually implemented, and the price center of nickel ore is rising. It is expected that the nickel price will slowly fluctuate upward. In the short term, the contradiction between spot supply and demand is limited, and the inventory still maintains a small increase. It is expected that the price will fluctuate to digest the inventory pressure. It is recommended to sell high and buy low [17]. - Under the background of macro - easing and general price increases in the semiconductor industry, the market sentiment of going long on the tin price is strong. However, it should also be noted that the supply and demand of tin ingots are marginally loose, and the inventory has steadily increased recently. It is not advisable to blindly chase the high. It is expected that the tin price will run in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see [19]. - The tension in the Iran situation has led to a significant correction in lithium carbonate and other previously rebounding varieties. The lithium price callback may release spot buying. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream stocking rhythm, changes in the spot market premium and discount, and the atmosphere of the commodity market in the future [20]. - The increase in maintenance and the delay in production start drive the contraction of the inventory accumulation amplitude. The supply of the ore end continues to be in surplus, and the high - level registration of warehouse receipts due to the premium on the disk suppresses the upward movement of the disk price. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and the futures price may maintain a wide - range shock [22]. - With the continuous intensification of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, non - ferrous metals are generally under pressure to fall back. The supply - side pressure of stainless steel has increased significantly, but the market procurement atmosphere has improved. It is expected that stainless steel will maintain a volatile upward pattern [24]. - The cost of cast aluminum alloy is strong. After the festival, the resumption of work and production of downstream enterprises will promote the improvement of demand. Coupled with supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply, the short - term price is expected to be strong [26]. - The current fundamentals of the black system are significantly weaker than expected before the festival. In the short term, the core contradiction is still inventory digestion and demand verification. Before the real demand in the peak season is confirmed, the price is unlikely to reverse the trend and is likely to continue the range - bound and weak pattern [29]. - After the end of the weather influence, the overseas supply recovers, and the high inventory suppresses the price increase. The iron water production on the demand side recovers well. It is expected that the iron ore price will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the policy guidance of the important meeting in March [31]. - In the short term, the coking coal and coke market may continue to fluctuate and reduce volatility, and the black sector is in a weak state. There is a risk of a phased correction in coking coal in the short term, but it is expected to have a relatively smooth upward market in 2026, especially from June to October [36]. - The glass market is expected to maintain a weak shock pattern in the short term due to high inventory and slow demand release. The soda ash market is expected to maintain a narrow - range shock pattern due to the expected reduction in supply and slow demand release [38][40]. - In the long - term, the commodity bull market is expected to continue, but the short - term market may continue to fluctuate and reduce volatility. The black sector is in a weak state. The future trend of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and cost - push factors. Attention should be paid to possible changes in manganese ore supply and the progress of the "dual - carbon" policy [43][44]. - The industrial silicon is expected to show a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, and the price will fluctuate weakly. The polysilicon price is expected to continue to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to whether there are new "anti - involution" related statements in important meetings [46][49]. - For rubber, it is recommended to trade flexibly according to the disk, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For crude oil, a mid - term layout is the main operation idea, but it is necessary to wait for the end of the geopolitical conflict to eliminate tail risks. For methanol, it is recommended to take profits when the price is high. For urea, it is recommended to short - allocate on rallies. For pure benzene and styrene, wait for the non - integrated profit to fall to a low level before considering long - entry opportunities. For PVC, the domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the short - term rebound is driven by the sentiment of crude oil cost. For ethylene glycol, pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices. For p - xylene, pay attention to the follow - up situation in the medium term. For polyethylene and polypropylene, the prices are affected by geopolitical conflicts and seasonal factors, and for polypropylene, it is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [54][56][58][60][64][66][69][71][73][76]. - For live pigs, the near - term contract should be treated with a short - bias after the rebound, and the far - end contract should not be over - chased. For eggs, pay attention to the valuation pressure on the far - end contract. For soybean and rapeseed meal, wait for the price to pull back before trying to buy. For oils and fats, go long at low prices. For sugar, go long with a small amount at low prices. For cotton, go long at low prices [79][81][83][86][88][90]. Summary by Directory Macro - Financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: The US stock panic index VIX rose 24% to 26.6 points; the European natural gas price increase expanded to 40% to 62.5 euros/MWh, and it rose more than 100% in two days; the US State Department issued 6 evacuation orders; the top five in the global AI application monthly active list are ChatGPT, Doubao, Qianwen, Quark, and DeepSeek, with Qianwen's growth rate reaching 552% [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Affected by the US - Iran conflict, it is recommended to pay attention to domestic Two Sessions policy signals and changes in the war situation and control risks [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the closing prices of the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS changed by 0.03%, - 0.03%, - 0.01%, and 0.01% respectively. The 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference will be held from March 4th to 11th. The central bank conducted 343 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 4917 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The inflation rebound has potential pressure on the bond market. The endogenous power of economic recovery is not solid. The US - Iran conflict has increased short - term risk aversion sentiment, but if the conflict lasts long, inflation may put pressure on the bond market. The bond market is expected to fluctuate [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold fell 3.78% to 1144.98 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver fell 1.88% to 21521.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold fell 3.99% to 5099.50 US dollars/ounce, COMEX silver fell 7.38% to 82.30 US dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury bond yield was 4.06%, and the US dollar index was 99.05. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran may push up inflation expectations, and the Fed officials' cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts supports the US dollar [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The strengthening of the US dollar and the rise of US bond yields suppress the prices of gold and silver. If the US bond yield continues to rise and the US dollar remains strong, the gold price may fall; otherwise, it may rise. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish, with the reference range of Shanghai gold at 1100 - 1170 yuan/gram and Shanghai silver at 20900 - 21800 yuan/kilogram [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Affected by the Middle East war, copper prices fluctuated lower. LME copper 3M contract fell 0.92% to 12964 US dollars/ton, and Shanghai copper main contract closed at 101330 yuan/ton. LME inventory remained unchanged, and domestic warehouse receipts increased. The spot discount in East China and Guangdong narrowed, and the import loss was about 500 yuan/ton [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The US's stance on the Middle East war has softened. The key mineral resource attribute supports the copper price. The short - term support for the copper price is strong, with the reference range of Shanghai copper at 100000 - 104000 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M at 12700 - 13300 US dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Affected by the Middle East war, the supply of aluminum was disturbed, and the price rose. LME aluminum 3M contract rose 2.83% to 3275 US dollars/ton, and Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24410 yuan/ton. The position of Shanghai aluminum weighted contract decreased, and the warehouse receipts increased. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased slightly, and the processing fee of aluminum rods increased [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The inventory of domestic aluminum ingots has reached a high level, but it is expected to peak earlier than in previous years. The Middle East war has increased the supply concern of aluminum. The short - term aluminum price is expected to be strong, with the reference range of Shanghai aluminum at 24000 - 25000 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M at 3220 - 3350 US dollars/ton [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai zinc index fell 1.90% to 24401 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 3S fell 55.5 to 3300 US dollars/ton. The domestic and foreign inventories of zinc ingots increased, and the import loss was - 2660.88 yuan/ton [14][15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic zinc industry remains weak. The actual impact of the Iran conflict on zinc ore supply is small, but the market is worried about trade disruptions and energy price increases. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely during the conflict [15]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai lead index fell 0.27% to 16847 yuan/ton, and the LME lead 3S fell 13.5 to 1964.5 US dollars/ton. The domestic and foreign inventories of lead ingots increased, and the import profit was 598.52 yuan/ton [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead ore inventory and TC increased slightly, and the raw material inventory of secondary lead decreased. The smelter's operating rate declined, and the downstream demand has not fully recovered. It is expected that the lead price will stop falling and stabilize in the short term and gradually recover as the supply of lead ingots narrows [16]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On March 3rd, the Shanghai nickel main contract fell 3.86% to 135450 yuan/ton. The spot premium and discount remained stable, and the price of nickel ore was flat. The price of ferronickel continued to rise [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the medium term, the nickel price is expected to rise slowly. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate to digest the inventory pressure. It is recommended to sell high and buy low, with the reference range of Shanghai nickel at 120000 - 160000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M at 16000 - 20000 US dollars/ton [17]. Tin - **Market Information**: On March 3rd, the Shanghai tin main contract fell 11.06% to 394890 yuan/ton. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar is worried, but there is no impact on production for the time being. The production of refined tin is at a low level, and the downstream demand has not been effectively reflected [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market sentiment of going long on the tin price is strong, but the supply and demand are marginally loose, and the inventory has increased. It is not advisable to blindly chase the high. It is expected that the tin price will run in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see, with the reference range of the domestic main contract at 370000 - 430000 yuan/ton and overseas LME tin at 47000 - 52000 US dollars/ton [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate fell 8.16% to 159322 yuan. The LC2605 contract fell 12.30% to 150860 yuan, and the premium and discount of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 950 yuan [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tension in the Iran situation has led to a correction in lithium carbonate. The lithium price callback may release spot buying. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream stocking rhythm, changes in the spot market premium and discount, and the atmosphere of the commodity market. The reference range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 138000 - 160000 yuan/ton [20]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On March 3rd, the alumina index rose 1.24% to 2820 yuan/ton, and the position decreased. The spot price in Shandong rose, and the import loss was - 4 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the price of ore remained stable [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The increase in maintenance and the delay in production start drive the contraction of the inventory accumulation amplitude. The supply of the ore end is in surplus, and the high - level registration of warehouse receipts suppresses the upward movement of the disk price. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and the reference range of the domestic main contract A02605 is 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the stainless steel main contract fell 1.39% to 14185 yuan/ton, and the position increased. The spot price in Foshan and Wuxi remained unchanged, and the raw material price increased. The futures inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With the intensification of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, non - ferrous metals are under pressure. The supply - side pressure of stainless steel has increased, but the market procurement atmosphere has improved. It is expected that stainless steel will maintain a volatile upward pattern, with