Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - In the short term, the A-share market lacks a clear upward trend due to a relative policy vacuum at the macro level, with low trading volume and a continued volatile trend, currently in an accumulation phase. In the long term, the market is expected to have further upward potential, but the pace will be gradual. Key factors to watch for future market upswings include further release of overseas liquidity or substantial improvement signals in the domestic fundamentals [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market and Liquidity - The central bank conducted 119.9 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 78.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 41.6 billion yuan. This week, a total of 495.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with daily maturities of 78.3 billion, 117.5 billion, 65.5 billion, 92.8 billion, and 141.7 billion yuan from Monday to Friday [3]. - Interest rates of various financial products changed: DRO01 closed at 1.48% with a 15.21 bp increase; DR007 at 1.50% with an 8.63 bp increase; GC001 at 1.21% with a 0.50 bp increase; GC007 at 1.48% with a 1.50 bp increase; SHBOR 3M at 1.58% with a 0.40 bp decrease; 5-year LPR remained unchanged at 3.50%; 1-year treasury bond yield was 1.40% with no change; 5-year treasury bond yield was 1.53% with a 0.25 bp decrease; 10-year treasury bond yield was 1.81% with no change; and 10-year US treasury bond yield was 4.11% with no change [3]. Stock Market Conditions - Yesterday, the stock market closed higher. The CSI 300 rose 0.35% to 4695.1, the SSE 50 rose 0.51% to 3053.9, the CSI 500 rose 0.22% to 7343.8, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.28% to 7563.3. The trading volume of the two markets was 2.1745 trillion yuan, an increase of 175.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Most industry sectors rose, with consumer sectors such as brewing, beauty care, tourism and hotels, food and beverages, and commercial department stores strengthening. Precious metals, airports, and jewelry sectors led the gains, while shipbuilding, small metals, and power supply equipment sectors led the losses [4]. - Trading volume and open interest of stock index futures changed: IF trading volume was 106,785, up 23.5%; IF open interest was 268,313, up 4.2%; IH trading volume was 45,910, up 21.4%; IH open interest was 96,711, up 6.3%; IC trading volume was 122,736, up 14.7%; IC open interest was 249,333, up 3.7%; IM trading volume was 194,473, up 3.7%; IM open interest was 354,677, down 0.5% [4]. - The premium and discount rates of stock index futures were as follows: IF premium/discount rates were 4.59% (current contract), 6.26% (near - term contract), 3.29% (quarterly contract), and 3.51% (average); IH premium/discount rates were - 0.04% (current contract), - 1.02% (near - term contract), 0.39% (quarterly contract), and 0.55% (average); IC premium/discount rates were 13.76% (current contract), 18.53% (near - term contract), 10.66% (quarterly contract), and 10.55% (average); IM premium/discount rates were 17.60% (current contract), 13.51% (near - term contract), 23.89% (quarterly contract), and 12.64% (average) [4].

Group 1: Industry Overview - The aviation sector is identified as a cyclical strengthening variety within the transportation sector, with a shift in macro expectations likely to catalyze market activity [1] - The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) is implementing policies to curb disorderly competition and guide rational pricing, which, along with optimized flight slot structures, is expected to improve the domestic aviation supply-demand relationship over the next 2-3 years [1] - The supply side is constrained by aging fleets, with over 15% of aircraft being over 15 years old, and a projected annual growth rate of only about 3% for the domestic fleet from 2020 to 2024, significantly lower than the 8% growth during the 13th Five-Year Plan [1] Group 2: Demand Potential - The resilience of aviation demand is highlighted, with passenger transport volume reaching 582 million from January to September 2025, a 17% increase compared to 2019, and a seat occupancy rate of 84.9%, surpassing pre-pandemic levels [2] - Domestic market recovery is steady, with flight and passenger numbers increasing by 13% and 19% respectively compared to 2019, and ticket prices stabilizing with a 4.3% year-on-year increase in October [2] - International routes are also recovering, with passenger transport volume reaching 102% of the 2019 level, driven by the expansion of visa-free policies and improved customs facilitation [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market in Hainan experienced a decline, with Zhongtung High-tech falling over 6% and Kangzhi Pharmaceutical dropping over 5% [1] - Other stocks such as Haixia Co., Xunlong Holdings, and Hainan Airport also followed the downward trend [1] Group 2 - A MACD golden cross signal has formed, indicating a positive trend for certain stocks [2]

Core Insights - The aviation and airport sector experienced a significant increase of 4.31% on November 10, with China Eastern Airlines leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4018.6, up 0.53%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13427.61, up 0.18% [1] Stock Performance - China Eastern Airlines (600115) closed at 5.26, with a rise of 7.35% and a trading volume of 3.0493 million shares, amounting to 1.572 billion yuan [1] - Other notable performers included: - Juneyao Airlines (603885) at 14.04, up 6.12% [1] - Air China (601111) at 8.79, up 5.90% [1] - China Southern Airlines (600029) at 7.24, up 3.72% [1] Capital Flow - The aviation and airport sector saw a net outflow of 313 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 7.8603 million yuan [1] - The detailed capital flow for selected stocks included: - HNA Holding (600221) with a net inflow of 80.7268 million yuan from institutional investors [2] - Shanghai Airport (600009) with a net inflow of 68.0565 million yuan from institutional investors [2] - China Southern Airlines (600029) with a net outflow of 48.7018 million yuan from institutional investors [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market's consumer sector saw a collective rise, with the food and beverage sector leading with a 2.85% increase, followed by beauty care, aviation, tourism, and retail sectors [1] - Notable individual stocks included Huanlejia (300997) hitting the daily limit, with several other consumer stocks also reaching their daily limits, indicating strong market interest [1] - China Duty Free Group (601888), a leading player in the duty-free market, also hit the daily limit with over 1 billion yuan in net inflow, highlighting significant investor confidence [1] Group 2 - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October, with core CPI rising 1.2%, marking the sixth consecutive month of growth [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a 0.1% month-on-month increase for the first time this year, with a year-on-year decline of 2.1%, indicating a narrowing of the decline [2] - In the consumer sector, service prices turned from a decline to an increase, with travel-related prices rising significantly due to the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival [3] Group 3 - High-end consumption has been improving since Q2, with several premium brands benefiting from the recovery in the Chinese market, achieving positive sales growth for the first time in 2023 [4] - New consumption trends, particularly in the tea beverage sector, are expected to see high double-digit profit growth in Q3 and Q4, aligning with market expectations [4] - The demand for live events and sports is strong, supported by policy guidance and improved venue supply, indicating high growth potential in the industry [4]

Group 1 - The A-share market is seeing a strong performance in consumer stocks, particularly in retail, duty-free, leisure services, airport, tourism, food, and dairy sectors [1] - Notable stocks that have hit the daily limit include China Duty Free Group, Guoguang Chain, Dongbai Group, Yingxin Development, Jinjiang Hotel, Overseas Chinese Town A, Sanyuan Foods, Huifa Foods, and Barbie Foods [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics released positive inflation data for October, indicating a month-on-month increase of 0.2% in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, marking a shift from decline to growth [1] Group 2 - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding for the sixth consecutive month [1] - The Ministry of Finance plans to continue implementing measures to boost consumption, including providing financial subsidies for personal consumption loans and loans to key industry operators [1]

Industry Overview - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1058.17 points, up 3.6% week-on-week but down 26.5% year-on-year [1][4] - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) stands at 1495.1 points, down 3.6% week-on-week and down 33.6% year-on-year [1][5] - The Domestic Container Freight Index (PDCI) is at 1216 points, up 3.0% week-on-week and up 0.6% year-on-year [1][5] Express Delivery - The postal express volume decreased by 6.2% week-on-week, totaling approximately 4.261 billion pieces, but increased by 3.1% year-on-year [2] - The delivery volume was about 4.305 billion pieces, down 2.18% week-on-week and up 3.9% year-on-year [2] - Due to price increases in several grain-producing areas, the average price per express delivery is expected to rise [2] Logistics - The Chemical Products Price Index (CCPI) is at 3828 points, down 12.5% year-on-year and down 1.1% week-on-week [2] - Liquid chemical domestic shipping prices remained stable at 161 RMB/ton, down 6.92% year-on-year [2] - The operating rates for paraxylene (PX), methanol, and ethylene glycol are 89.7%, 84.6%, and 69.5% respectively, with slight increases in week-on-week comparisons [2] Aviation and Airports - The average daily number of flights in China is 14,482, an increase of 3.71% year-on-year [3] - Domestic flights average 12,265 per day, up 2.18% year-on-year, while international flights average 2,217, up 13.12% year-on-year [3] - Brent crude oil futures settled at $63.63 per barrel, down 2.2% week-on-week and down 15.8% year-on-year [3] Shipping - The oil transportation index (BDTI) is at 1411.4 points, up 3.9% week-on-week and up 51.4% year-on-year [5] - The product oil transportation index (BCTI) is at 645 points, up 4.4% week-on-week and up 32.3% year-on-year [5] - The dry bulk index (BDI) is at 2014.6 points, up 2.4% week-on-week and up 40.8% year-on-year [5] Road and Rail Ports - The total cargo throughput at monitored ports is 280.497 million tons, up 11.6% year-on-year and up 15.7% week-on-week [6] - The container throughput is 6.72 million TEUs, up 16.2% year-on-year and up 13.8% week-on-week [6] - The total number of trucks on highways is 57.572 million, down 2.49% week-on-week but up 4.40% year-on-year [6]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Industrial Securities highlights significant volatility in global risk assets due to concerns over tightening overseas liquidity and discussions surrounding an "AI bubble" [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Global risk assets have experienced substantial fluctuations this week, influenced by a lack of economic data, frequent hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve, and rising liquidity pressures in the money market due to government shutdown and fiscal constraints [1] - The strong dollar has suppressed global stock markets and commodity prices, with technology-heavy indices like Nikkei 225, Korean stock index, and Nasdaq leading the decline [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The probability of overseas liquidity tightening evolving into systemic risk is low, as solutions from the Federal Reserve and bipartisan negotiations to reopen the government are progressing, which may gradually alleviate external disturbances on risk appetite [2] - If the U.S. government shutdown ends as expected in mid-November and more economic data is released, market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts will be recalibrated, potentially creating a window for global recovery [3] Group 3: AI Industry Analysis - The current discussions around the "AI bubble" have caused some disturbances in the domestic AI industry chain, but Industrial Securities believes that AI's empowerment of traditional industries is still in its early stages, making it incomparable to the internet bubble of 1999-2000 [4] - The development logic of the AI industry is clear, with major global tech companies continuously defining their AI strategies, and the fundamentals of leading companies in the U.S. stock market remain strong due to ongoing R&D investments and capital expenditures [4] Group 4: Investment Strategies - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes AI as a key driver for national competition and technological innovation, indicating that the AI industry chain will be a focus area with favorable prospects next year [5] - The year-end market is seen as an important window for positioning in sectors expected to perform well in the coming year, with a focus on cyclical sectors such as steel, chemicals, construction materials, and new consumption [6][7] - High-growth sectors expected to see net profit growth of over 30% next year include AI hardware, new energy, and military industries, while sectors with expected growth of 10%-30% include pharmaceuticals and AI downstream applications [7][8]

Core Insights - The aviation and airport sector experienced a slight decline of 0.08% on November 7, with China Eastern Airlines leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3997.56, down 0.25%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13404.06, down 0.36% [1] Stock Performance - Hainan Airlines Holdings (600221) saw a closing price of 1.83, with an increase of 1.67% and a trading volume of 9.1 million shares, totaling 1.675 billion yuan [1] - Baiyun Airport (600004) closed at 9.97, up 0.91%, with a trading volume of 189,200 shares [1] - Shanghai Airport (600009) closed at 32.23, up 0.62%, with a trading volume of 81,700 shares [1] - Shenzhen Airport (000089) closed at 7.31, up 0.41%, with a trading volume of 171,500 shares [1] - China National Aviation (601111) closed at 8.30, down 0.12%, with a trading volume of 389,500 shares [1] - Southern Airlines (600029) closed at 6.98, down 0.29%, with a trading volume of 399,500 shares [1] - Spring Airlines (601021) closed at 55.56, down 0.32%, with a trading volume of 42,800 shares [1] - Xiamen Airport (600897) closed at 16.70, down 0.60%, with a trading volume of 115,200 shares [1] - Juneyao Airlines (603885) closed at 13.23, down 0.75%, with a trading volume of 78,500 shares [1] - CITIC Offshore Helicopter (000099) closed at 21.53, down 0.92%, with a trading volume of 97,000 shares [1] Capital Flow - The aviation and airport sector saw a net outflow of 267 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 147 million yuan [2] - The overall capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment, with institutional investors withdrawing funds while retail investors showed interest [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Xiamen Airport (600897) had a net inflow of 1.3164 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 6.2663 million yuan [3] - Baiyun Airport (600004) experienced a net inflow of 463,500 yuan from institutional investors and a net outflow of 158,140 yuan from speculative funds [3] - Shanghai Airport (600009) faced a net outflow of 3.0744 million yuan from institutional investors, but retail investors contributed a net inflow of 13.8668 million yuan [3] - Juneyao Airlines (603885) had a significant net outflow of 8.2616 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 11.6144 million yuan [3] - China Eastern Airlines (600115) saw a net outflow of 1.21% in its stock price, closing at 4.90 with a trading volume of 1.0093 million shares [2]

Core Insights - The aviation and airport sector experienced a slight decline of 0.13% on November 6, with HNA Holding leading the drop [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4007.76, up 0.97%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13452.42, up 1.73% [1] Stock Performance - Key stocks in the aviation sector showed mixed results, with the following notable performances: - China Southern Airlines (7.00, +0.86%, 424,900 shares, 297 million CNY) - China Eastern Airlines (4.96, +0.20%, 1,122,600 shares, 558 million CNY) - HNA Holding (1.80, -3.74%, 10,532,800 shares, 1.918 billion CNY) [1][2] Capital Flow - The aviation and airport sector saw a net outflow of 369 million CNY from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 200 million CNY [2][3] - The following stocks had significant capital flows: - China Southern Airlines: -32.63 million CNY from institutional investors, +3.14 million CNY from retail investors - HNA Holding: -38.95 million CNY from institutional investors, +12.38 million CNY from retail investors [3]