Workflow
金属冶炼
icon
Search documents
伦敦金属交易所(LME):镍库存减少120吨,锌库存减少2050吨,铅库存增加9900吨,铜库存减少950吨,铝库存减少2075吨,锡库存减少50吨。
news flash· 2025-04-14 08:03
伦敦金属交易所(LME):镍库存减少120吨,锌库存减少2050吨,铅库存增加9900吨,铜库存减少950 吨,铝库存减少2075吨,锡库存减少50吨。 ...
镍与不锈钢日评:偏弱运行-20250409
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-04-09 02:39
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market is expected to be weak. The refined nickel surplus pattern remains unchanged, and there are many macro - negative factors, which will suppress the nickel price. The frequent adjustment of Indonesia's nickel industry policy and the withdrawal of long - position funds also increase market volatility [1]. - The stainless - steel market is expected to be weak. The supply side is relatively loose, the demand side recovers slowly, and the raw material support for stainless - steel prices is limited. Under macro - negative factors, the non - ferrous metals as a whole are under heavy pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel - **Market Data**: - On April 8, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai nickel futures contracts showed different trends. For example, the closing price of the futures near - month contract was 119,280 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume of the active contract was 261,743 hands (+457), and the open interest was 80,225 hands (-4,462). The LME 3 - month nickel closing price (electronic disk) was 14,150 US dollars/ton, down 214 US dollars from the previous day [1]. - The basis between SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price and the closing price of the active Shanghai nickel contract was 2,470 yuan, down 1,490 yuan from the previous day [1]. - **Supply - side Situation**: - Nickel ore prices remained flat, the arrival volume of nickel ore at ports changed little, and port inventories were stable. In some major production areas in Indonesia, production was adjusted, with reduced production scheduling and a downward - adjustment expectation for metal volume. Domestic smelters continued to make losses, and production slightly recovered after seasonal maintenance [1]. - **Demand - side Situation**: - Ternary production scheduling decreased, stainless - steel mills' production scheduling was stable and improving, and the demand for alloys and electroplating was stable [1]. - **Inventory Situation**: - On April 7, the LME nickel inventory was 202,300 tons, up 1,908 tons from the previous day, with an increase rate of 0.95%. The SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 205 tons from the previous trading day. The social inventory decreased, and the bonded - area inventory remained stable [1]. Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: - On April 8, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai stainless - steel futures contracts showed a downward trend. The trading volume of the active contract was 187,931 hands (-23,316), and the open interest was 72,550 hands (-14,393). The basis between the average price of 304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi) and the active contract decreased by 40 yuan from the previous day [1]. - **Supply - side Situation**: - Stainless - steel production scheduling decreased slightly [1]. - **Demand - side Situation**: - Terminal demand was gradually recovering [1]. - **Cost - side Situation**: - The price of high - nickel pig iron declined, while the price of high - carbon ferrochrome increased [1]. - **Inventory Situation**: - The SHFE inventory increased. The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel last week was 705,800 tons, down 6,300 tons [1].
西南期货早间评论-2025-04-07
Xi Nan Qi Huo· 2025-04-07 07:17
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US government's imposition of "reciprocal tariffs" has led to China's counter - measures, causing significant concerns in the market. The global economy faces a greater risk of recession, and the market anticipates further monetary policy easing. Tariffs are significantly beneficial for Treasury bond futures, while stock index futures may face pressure. Different commodities are affected by various factors such as trade frictions, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes, with varying trends and investment strategies [5][6][9]. Summary by Directory Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year主力 contracts rose by 1.43%, 0.51%, 0.38%, and 0.15% respectively [5]. - **Policy Impact**: China will impose an additional 34% tariff on all imported goods from the US starting from April 10, 2025. Future monetary and fiscal policies have room for adjustment, and measures will be taken to boost domestic consumption and stabilize the capital market [5][6]. - **Outlook**: Tariffs are favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering the current low Treasury bond yields and the stable recovery of the Chinese economy, caution is advised. It is expected that the volatility will increase [6][7][8]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures declined slightly. The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000股指期货主力 contracts changed by - 0.49%, 0.10%, - 0.78%, and - 1.10% respectively [9]. - **Impact Factors**: Tariffs disrupt the domestic economic recovery rhythm, and the global recession risk increases, putting pressure on stock index futures. However, due to the low valuation of domestic assets and policy hedging space, there is no need to be overly bearish on the Chinese equity market. It is advisable to wait for short - term opportunities [9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the gold主力 contract rose by 0.74%, and the silver主力 contract fell by 1.37% [11]. - **Impact Factors**: After the tariff implementation, precious metals first rose and then fell, possibly due to passive selling caused by global financial market liquidity shocks. The long - term value of gold is still optimistic, and it is expected to continue its upward trend after the shock [11][12]. - **Strategy**: Consider long - position opportunities or buy long - term call options after the market stabilizes [12][13]. Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. During the Ching Ming Festival, international financial market fluctuations may drag down domestic black - series products [14]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The real - estate industry's downward trend persists, and weak demand and increasing rebar production suppress prices. However, the peak demand season is approaching, and macro - policies may support prices. The valuation of steel prices is low, and the downward space may be limited [14]. - **Strategy**: Due to macro - factor disturbances, market volatility may increase. Investors can wait and see or focus on intraday trading opportunities, paying attention to position management [14]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated. During the holiday, international market fluctuations may affect domestic black - series products [16][17]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: High iron - water production supports iron ore demand. Although the supply has increased recently, the port inventory has decreased. The valuation of iron ore is relatively high in the black - series products [17]. - **Strategy**: Due to macro - factor disturbances, market volatility may increase. Investors can wait and see or focus on intraday trading opportunities, paying attention to position management [17]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures were weak. During the holiday, international market fluctuations may affect domestic black - series products [19]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The coking - coal market sentiment has improved slightly, and the coke fundamentals are showing signs of improvement. However, the medium - term weakness has not changed [19]. - **Strategy**: Due to macro - factor disturbances, market volatility may increase. Investors can wait and see or focus on intraday trading opportunities, paying attention to position management [19][20]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the manganese - silicon主力 contract fell by 0.45%, and the silicon - iron主力 contract rose by 0.13% [22]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply of ferroalloys is slightly higher than demand. The steel demand season is coming, and the demand for ferroalloys is expected to pick up. However, the high inventory and potential supply disturbances in manganese ore need attention [22][23]. - **Strategy**: In the low - price range, consider long - position opportunities for deep - out - of - the - money call options for manganese silicon. For silicon iron, short - position holders can consider exiting at the bottom range [23]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rose and then fell due to the implementation of US reciprocal tariffs [24]. - **Market Data**: Fund managers increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of US oil and gas rigs decreased, and OPEC + will increase oil supply in May [25]. - **Outlook**: The crude oil price depends on the development of trade frictions. It is expected that the price will be supported at around $60, and OPEC may take measures to support the price [26]. - **Strategy**: Consider temporarily waiting and seeing for the crude - oil主力 contract [27]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil, rising and then falling. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market was weak in early April [28]. - **Outlook**: High - sulfur fuel oil may face supply shortages, but the implementation of US tariffs will harm the global shipping market, which is negative for fuel oil [29]. - **Strategy**: Consider temporarily waiting and seeing for the fuel - oil主力 contract [30]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the synthetic - rubber主力 contract fell by 4.04%. The US tariff has a negative impact on the cost and demand expectations, and the market is expected to be weak in the short term [31]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The butadiene price is falling, and the production capacity utilization rate has declined. The demand for tires is expected to fluctuate slightly, and the inventory has decreased [31]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the natural - rubber主力 contract fell by 3.18%, and the 20 - rubber主力 contract fell by 3.73%. The US tariff has a triple - path impact on the natural - rubber market, and the price lacks upward momentum in the short term [33]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The opening of the rubber - tapping season in some areas is delayed, and the demand for tires is weak. The inventory is at a relatively low level year - on - year but is accumulating month - on - month [33][34]. - **Outlook**: There may be a technical rebound after the price drops excessively. The long - term trend depends on global trade policies and industrial chain reconstruction [33]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PVC主力 contract fell by 0.04%. The US tariff has limited impact on PVC imports and exports, and the market is expected to continue to oscillate between weak reality and policy expectations [36]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The production capacity utilization rate has increased slightly, and the demand from downstream enterprises is weak. The export depends on low prices, and the inventory has increased [36][37]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to oscillate at the bottom [38]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the urea主力 contract fell by 0.42%. The urea market is mainly in a weak adjustment state, and the price lacks upward momentum under the loose supply - demand pattern [39]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The daily production of urea is expected to remain around 200,000 tons. The agricultural demand is in a lull, and the industrial demand is under pressure. The inventory has decreased [39]. - **Outlook**: The market may oscillate before the start of the summer fertilizer demand. Attention should be paid to factors such as northeast replenishment demand, export policy changes, and extreme weather [39]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PX2505主力 contract fell by 2.27%. Recently, more PX plants have been under maintenance, and the load has decreased. The downstream PTA startup has increased, but the cost support has collapsed due to the sharp drop in crude oil prices [41]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, PX is expected to follow the cost - end weakness. It is advisable to wait and see carefully, paying attention to changes in crude oil prices and supply [41]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2505主力 contract fell by 2%. The supply of PTA has increased slightly, and the demand from the polyester industry has risen. However, the PTA processing fee has decreased, and the crude oil price has dropped significantly [42]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of PTA is not significant, but there is a risk of a sharp price correction. It is advisable to participate carefully and control risks [42]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the ethylene - glycol主力 contract fell by 1.4%. The overall production capacity utilization rate has decreased, and the inventory has increased. The downstream polyester startup has risen, but the terminal demand is weak [43]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the ethylene - glycol price is expected to be under pressure. It is advisable to operate carefully and pay attention to changes in port inventory and upstream - downstream plants [43][44]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2505主力 contract fell by 2.38%. The supply of short - fiber is at a relatively high level, and the demand from downstream terminals is limited. The cost support is insufficient [45]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, short - fiber will follow the cost - end movement. Pay attention to risk control due to significant fluctuations [45]. Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the bottle - chips 2505主力 contract fell by 1.18%. The raw - material cost support is limited, the supply has increased, and the demand for downstream soft drinks is gradually recovering [46]. - **Outlook**: The bottle - chips market is expected to follow the cost - end weakness. Pay attention to changes in raw - material prices [46]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the soda - ash 2505主力 contract fell by 0.29%. The soda - ash production has adjusted at a high level, and the inventory has increased. The downstream demand is weak, and the price is stable and weak [47]. - **Outlook**: The market is still dominated by demand in the short term, and the price is subject to oscillation due to maintenance news [47]. Glass - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the glass 2505主力 contract fell by 2.44%. The number of production lines has been at a low level, and the overall supply - demand pattern has not improved significantly. The price has a certain upward momentum due to valuation repair and cost support, but the actual supply - demand drive is not obvious [48]. - **Outlook**: It is necessary to continuously monitor the inventory - reduction speed [48]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the caustic - soda 2505主力 contract fell by 0.71%. The production of caustic soda has increased slightly, and the demand is limited. The market is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and the price is expected to oscillate [50]. Pulp - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the pulp 2505主力 contract fell by 1.91%. Some pulp mills have carried out maintenance, and the inventory has increased slightly. The downstream demand is weak, and the market sentiment is affected by the futures price decline [51][53]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the pulp market is expected to be weak and oscillate [53]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the lithium - carbonate主力 contract fell by 1%. The supply is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the inventory is accumulating. The market is expected to be weak [54]. Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fell significantly due to US tariffs. The spot - market trading was stable, and the premium increased [55]. - **Outlook**: With the escalation of the trade war, copper prices are difficult to remain stable. In the short term, it is not recommended to participate in the market or only participate with a light position [55]. - **Strategy**: Consider temporarily waiting and seeing for the Shanghai - copper主力 contract [56]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, tin fell by 2.02%. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, but the short - term impact of macro - events has intensified. The supply shortage in the ore end still exists, and the price is expected to be supported [56]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, pay attention to risk control and wait for the release of risk sentiment [56]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the nickel price fell by 1.55%. The market sentiment is pessimistic due to US tariffs. The cost support is strong, but the demand is weak, and the market is expected to remain at a low level in the short term [57]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to risk control [57]. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the industrial - silicon主力 contract rose by 0.20%, and the polysilicon主力 contract fell by 0.02%. The industrial - silicon market is oversupplied, and the price is weak. The polysilicon market is relatively stable, and the price is expected to remain stable [58][59]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the soybean - meal main - contract rose by 1.60%, and the soybean - oil main - contract fell by 1.18%. The US - China trade friction has intensified, and the US soybean main - contract fell on Friday [60]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The domestic soybean supply is becoming more abundant, and the inventory of soybean meal is accumulating, while the inventory of soybean oil is decreasing. The consumption of soybean oil and soybean meal is expected to increase slightly [60]. - **Strategy**: After the short - term extreme market reaction, the market will return to fundamentals. Long - position holders can consider taking profits on rallies. If there is still an upward trend on the second trading day, consider virtual - value put options [61][62]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil has fallen, pressured by the decline in CBOT soybean oil and crude oil prices. The global demand is weak due to economic concerns, and the Malaysian palm - oil inventory is expected to rise for the first time in six months [63]. - **Strategy**: Consider temporarily waiting and seeing [64]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed has fallen, and the domestic market has been affected by tariff policies. The impact on rapeseed meal is greater than that on rapeseed oil. The inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil has decreased [65][66]. - **Strategy**: Consider the opportunity to expand the spread after the narrowing of the soybean - rapeseed spread [66]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: During the holiday, the outer - market cotton fell by about 2.3% due to US tariff policies. The domestic cotton supply is sufficient, and the downstream demand is weakening [67][68]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, the outer - market supply - demand is loose, and the domestic demand has reached a phased peak. The "reciprocal tariff" has a great impact on demand, and the global economic decline has led to trade shrinkage [68]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: During the holiday, the outer - market raw sugar fell by more than 3% due to the decline in global risk assets. The domestic and foreign sugar production and inventory situations are different. The short - term decline in global risk assets will drag down sugar prices [69][70]. - **Strategy**: It is advisable to wait and see [70][71]. Apples - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures fluctuated. The cancellation of a delivery warehouse is beneficial, and the consumption is better than expected. The inventory is low, and the price is expected to be strong [72][73]. - **Strategy**: Consider long - position opportunities after price corrections [74]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: The national average pig price is oscillating. The demand support is insufficient, and the price is expected to remain oscillating in the short term. The 4 - month planned slaughter volume of group farms has a limited increase, and the consumption is entering the
镍与不锈钢日评:偏弱运行-2025-04-07
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-04-07 07:15
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The nickel market shows a situation where the pattern of refined nickel surplus remains unchanged, and the frequent policy adjustments of the Indonesian government and heavy macro - negative factors are expected to suppress nickel prices, leading to a weak operation of nickel prices [1]. - The stainless - steel market has a relatively loose supply, slow demand recovery, limited support from raw material prices, and heavy pressure on the non - ferrous sector under macro - negative factors, so the stainless - steel price is expected to show a weak trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Nickel Market Price and Volume Information - On April 3, 2025, the closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures' near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts decreased compared with the previous day, with decreases of 1,960 yuan/ton, 2,130 yuan/ton, 2,140 yuan/ton, and 2,070 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume of Shanghai nickel futures was 184,999 lots, an increase of 2,647 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest of the active contract was 89,599 lots, a decrease of 1 lot [1]. - The closing prices of LME 3 - month nickel and LME 15 - month nickel also decreased, with decreases of 160 US dollars/ton and 227.39 US dollars/ton respectively. The trading volume of LME 3 - month nickel was 4,210 lots, a decrease of 1,463 lots compared with the previous day [1]. Supply and Demand - Supply side: Nickel ore prices remained flat, the arrival volume of nickel ore changed little, and port inventories were stable. Some main production areas in Indonesia adjusted production, with a decrease in scheduled production and a downward expectation of metal volume. Domestic smelters continued to suffer losses, and production slightly recovered after seasonal maintenance [1]. - Demand side: The scheduled production of ternary materials decreased; the scheduled production of stainless - steel plants was stable and improving; the demand for alloys and electroplating was stable [1]. Inventory - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, the LME inventory increased, the social inventory decreased, and the bonded - area inventory remained stable. As of April 2, the LME nickel inventory was 199,000 tons, unchanged from the previous day. The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 311 tons compared with the previous day [1]. Stainless - Steel Market Price and Volume Information - On April 3, 2025, the closing prices of Shanghai stainless - steel futures' near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts decreased compared with the previous day. The trading volume of Shanghai stainless - steel futures was 185,423 lots, an increase of 51,383 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest of the active contract was 98,312 lots, a decrease of 12,271 lots [1]. Supply and Demand - Supply side: The scheduled production of stainless - steel decreased slightly [1]. - Demand side: Terminal demand was gradually recovering [1]. Inventory - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased. The social inventory of 300 - series stainless - steel last week was 705,800 tons, a decrease of 6,300 tons [1]. Cost - The price of high - nickel pig iron increased, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome remained flat [1].
冠通期货螺纹钢日报-2025-04-02
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-04-02 12:46
Report Information - Report Title: Guantong Daily Trading Strategy - Production Date: April 2, 2025 - Analysts: Wang Jing (F0235424/Z0000771), Zhang Na (F03104186/Z0021294), Su Miaoda (F03104403/Z0018167) - Report Issuing Institution: Guantong Futures Co., Ltd. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - **Oils and Fats**: The international biodiesel policy boosts the sector, but the US policy mainly affects 2026 and later. Palm oil supply is rising but may be affected by weather, with weak demand and potential inventory accumulation. Domestic demand is weak, and the 05 contract is near - strong and far - weak. It is recommended to sell high. Soybean oil is affected by multiple factors, with the 05 contract in short - term oscillation and expected to be weak in April [3][6]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Domestic weekly production is rising, supply pressure persists, and inventory is increasing. The short - term fundamentals are bearish, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly in the range of 73,000 - 78,000 yuan [7]. - **Copper**: Market sentiment is affected by macro uncertainties, with weak supply and demand. The price is expected to fluctuate around 79,000 - 82,000 yuan [13]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ is increasing production, and there are many uncertainties in the market. Although there is downward pressure, due to various factors, it is recommended to hold long positions [14][15]. - **Asphalt**: Supply is decreasing, demand is slowly recovering, and inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to hold long positions [16][19]. - **PP**: Supply and demand are in a complex situation, and it is recommended to wait and see the PP05 contract [20]. - **Plastic**: Supply is increasing, demand recovery is slow, and it is recommended to short the 05 contract basis at high prices [21][23]. - **PVC**: Supply is relatively stable, demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level [24]. - **Soybean Meal**: International supply pressure is high, and domestic supply is gradually improving. The 05 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [25][26]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply pressure is rising, demand growth is limited, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 750 - 810 yuan/ton [27]. - **Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil**: The fundamentals are neutral - weak, and the market is expected to oscillate [28]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply and demand are both increasing, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [29][30]. - **Urea**: The fundamentals are in a tight balance, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the range of 1865 - 1910 [31]. Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: Palm oil rose 2.04%, soybean oil 0.66%, and rapeseed oil 1.69% [3]. - **International Factors**: The US plans to increase biofuel blending, and there are weather warnings in palm oil - producing areas. Indian palm oil imports increased in March [3]. - **Domestic Factors**: Palm oil import profit is inverted, demand is weak, and inventory is low. Soybean oil production decreased, demand increased slightly, and inventory decreased. Rapeseed oil inventory is high [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Sell high for the 05 palm oil contract; the 05 soybean oil contract is expected to be weak in April [3][6]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The futures price fell 1.25% to 73,723.30 yuan/ton, and the spot price was flat [7]. - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Supply is high with some small - factory production cuts. Demand is growing, and inventory is increasing but at a slower rate [7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Pay attention to the spread after concentrated warrant cancellation, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly in the 73,000 - 78,000 yuan range [7]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The price oscillated and declined [13]. - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Supply may decrease slightly in April, demand in the peak season is less than expected, and inventory has increased slightly [13]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to fluctuate around 79,000 - 82,000 yuan [13]. Crude Oil - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: OPEC+ is increasing production, US production is slightly up, and global demand and inventory are complex. There are many geopolitical factors [14][15]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions [15]. Asphalt - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Supply is decreasing, demand is slowly recovering, and inventory is at a low level [16][19]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions [19]. PP - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Downstream demand is slowly recovering, supply is affected by new production and maintenance, and inventory is at a medium - low level [20]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see the PP05 contract [20]. Plastic - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Supply is increasing with new production and some maintenance, demand recovery is slow, and inventory is at a medium - low level [21][23]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short the 05 contract basis at high prices [23]. PVC - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Supply is relatively stable, demand is weak, and inventory is slowly decreasing [24]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [24]. Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The price rose 0.57% [25]. - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: International supply pressure is high, domestic supply is improving, and demand is weak [25][26]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [26]. Iron Ore - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Supply pressure is rising, demand growth is limited, and inventory is increasing [27]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to oscillate in the 750 - 810 yuan/ton range [27]. Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: The fundamentals are neutral - weak, with slow rebar de - stocking and good hot - rolled coil de - stocking [28]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The market is expected to oscillate [28]. Coking Coal - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Supply and demand are both increasing, but demand lacks elasticity [29][30]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [30]. Urea - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Supply is slightly easing, demand is affected by price, and inventory is decreasing [31]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the 1865 - 1910 range [31].