1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term index faces adjustment pressure, but the medium - and long - term strategy for the stock index is to buy on dips as policy support for the capital market remains unchanged [3]. - In the bond market, with weak domestic demand recovery and expected loose funds, interest rates may decline, but the short - term outlook is for a volatile recovery, considering the stock - bond seesaw effect [5]. - The current macro background is favorable for precious metals, especially silver. It is recommended to buy on dips [6]. - Most non - ferrous metals are expected to show a strong or volatile - strong trend. For example, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, etc. are affected by factors such as Fed policy expectations, industry fundamentals, and supply - demand relationships [8][9][11]. - In the black building materials sector, although the short - term prices may have a callback risk due to weak real - time demand, in the future, with overseas fiscal and monetary easing and the opening of domestic policy space, the sector may gradually have multi - allocation value [31]. - In the energy and chemical sector, different products have different trends. For example, crude oil is recommended for multi - allocation, while methanol and urea have different strategies based on their supply - demand and inventory situations [42][43]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products such as pigs, eggs, and grains have different supply - demand situations, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed based on these situations [55][56]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **News**: Articles by General Secretary Xi Jinping were published, NVIDIA is under investigation, black - series futures rose, a press conference on service consumption policies is upcoming, and Tesla's stock price reached a new high [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different periods are provided. After a continuous rise, high - level hot sectors such as AI have diverged, and the short - term index faces adjustment pressure, but the medium - and long - term strategy is to buy on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all rose. Economic data in August showed a slowdown, and the central bank conducted net capital injections [4]. - **Strategy**: With weak domestic demand recovery and expected loose funds, interest rates may decline, but the short - term bond market is expected to recover in a volatile manner [5]. Precious Metals - **Market**: Shanghai gold and silver rose, while COMEX gold slightly declined and COMEX silver rose. Trump's remarks and the expected Fed policy have increased the market's expectation of a dovish Fed stance. It is recommended to buy on dips [6]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market**: Affected by factors such as Sino - US trade negotiations and the Fed's expected policy, copper prices rose. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased [8]. - **Outlook**: Copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, with the reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract being 80600 - 82000 yuan/ton [8]. Aluminum - **Market**: Domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased, but aluminum prices rose. Downstream consumption is in the peak season, and aluminum prices are expected to continue to be strong [9]. - **Outlook**: The reference range for the domestic main contract is 20960 - 21200 yuan/ton [9]. Zinc - **Market**: Zinc prices showed a short - term strong trend. Zinc concentrate inventory increased, and the import window closed. The short - term outlook is for a strong trend [10][11]. Lead - **Market**: Lead prices broke through the shock range. Lead concentrate is in short supply, and downstream demand is improving. The short - term outlook is for a strong trend [12][13]. Nickel - **Market**: Nickel prices fluctuated. Refined nickel inventory pressure is significant, but in the medium - and long - term, nickel prices are supported by policies. It is recommended to buy on dips [14]. - **Outlook**: The reference range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton [14]. Tin - **Market**: Tin prices fluctuated. Supply decreased, and demand improved marginally. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [15]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market**: Carbonate lithium prices rose. Demand expectations are optimistic, and lithium prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [16]. - **Outlook**: The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's carbonate lithium 2511 contract is 71000 - 74600 yuan/ton [16]. Alumina - **Market**: Alumina prices rose. The supply - side has an over - capacity situation, but the Fed's expected policy may drive the non - ferrous sector. It is recommended to wait and see [17]. - **Outlook**: The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton [17]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: Stainless steel prices rose. Raw material prices recovered, and it is recommended to be bullish on stainless steel [18][19]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: Cast aluminum alloy prices were at a high level. Downstream is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and prices are expected to remain high [20]. - **Outlook**: The reference range for the AD2511 contract is 20450 - 20650 yuan/ton [20]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose slightly. The overall commodity market atmosphere improved, but steel prices showed a weak trend. Rebar demand is weak, while hot - rolled coil demand is relatively strong [22][23]. - **Outlook**: If demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices may decline further [24]. Iron Ore - **Market**: Iron ore prices fluctuated. Supply increased, and demand was supported in the short - term. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Glass prices rose. Industry supply increased slightly, and inventory decreased. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [27]. - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash prices rose. Industry supply decreased slightly, and demand was mainly for rigid needs. It is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rose. They are expected to follow the black sector, but their independent strong trends are difficult to form [29][30]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [30]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: Industrial silicon prices rose. Supply increased, and demand improved marginally. The short - term valuation is neutral, and it is necessary to pay attention to industry policies [33][34]. - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon prices fluctuated. Supply was high, and demand was mainly for rigid needs. The short - term market is affected by policies [35][36]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market**: Rubber prices rebounded. Supply and demand factors coexist, and the medium - term outlook is bullish, while the short - term outlook is neutral [38][39]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see or trade quickly [41]. Crude Oil - **Market**: Crude oil prices rose. Geopolitical premiums have disappeared, but OPEC's actions are seen as a market pressure test. It is recommended for multi - allocation [42]. Methanol - **Market**: Methanol prices rose. Port inventory is high, but demand is expected to improve marginally. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider 1 - 5 positive spreads [43]. Urea - **Market**: Urea prices rose. Domestic inventory is high, and demand is weak. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips [44]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market**: Spot prices fell, and futures prices rose. BZN spreads are expected to repair, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the pure benzene US - South Korea spread [45][46]. PVC - **Market**: PVC prices rose. Supply is strong, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies, but beware of upward fluctuations [47]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. Supply is high, and inventory is expected to increase in the medium - term. It is recommended to short on rallies, but beware of risks [48]. PTA - **Market**: PTA prices rose. Supply is affected by unexpected maintenance, and demand is stable. It is recommended to wait and see [49][50]. p - Xylene - **Market**: p - Xylene prices rose. Supply is high, and demand from downstream PTA is affected by maintenance. It is recommended to wait and see [51]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market**: PE futures prices rose. Cost support exists, and demand is expected to improve. Prices are expected to fluctuate upward [52]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market**: PP futures prices rose. Supply pressure is high, and demand is recovering seasonally. The short - term trend is not clear [53]. Agricultural Products Category Pigs - **Market**: Pig prices fell. Supply is abundant, and demand is general. It is recommended to pay attention to potential rebound opportunities and short - sell after rebounds [55]. Eggs - **Market**: Egg prices were stable with some increases. Supply is stable, and demand is normal. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider short - term long positions in the distant month after a decline [56]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: US soybeans fell slightly, and domestic soybean meal prices fell. Supply is abundant, and demand is uncertain. It is recommended to trade within a range [57][58]. Oils and Fats - **Market**: Three major domestic oils fluctuated. Supply and demand factors coexist, and the medium - term outlook is bullish. It is recommended to buy on dips after a decline [60][61]. Sugar - **Market**: Sugar prices fluctuated. Domestic and foreign markets are bearish, and the overall outlook is bearish [62][63]. Cotton - **Market**: Cotton prices fluctuated. Supply and demand factors coexist, and short - term prices are expected to continue to fluctuate [64][65].

Group 1 - The overall inventory levels for various metals show a decline in copper and zinc, while aluminum remains stable, and tin has seen a slight increase [1][2][4] - Copper inventory decreased by 1,325 tons, representing a 0.86% drop, with a total of 152,625 tons in stock [1][4] - Zinc inventory decreased by 375 tons, a 0.74% decline, bringing the total to 50,150 tons [1][9] Group 2 - Aluminum inventory remained unchanged at 485,275 tons, with no new entries or exits reported [1][5] - Tin inventory increased by 25 tons, a 0.95% rise, resulting in a total of 2,645 tons [1][11] - The registered warehouse receipts for copper decreased by 17.13%, while the cancellation rate for zinc was reported at 34.50% [2][9]

Group 1: Metal Inventory Changes - Copper inventory decreased by 225 tons, representing a 0.15% decline, with total inventory at 153,950 tons [1] - Aluminum inventory remained unchanged at 485,275 tons, with no variation in registered or canceled warrants [1] - Zinc inventory decreased by 100 tons, a 0.20% drop, bringing total inventory to 50,525 tons [1] - Nickel inventory increased by 1,932 tons, a 0.87% rise, resulting in a total of 225,084 tons [1] - Aluminum alloy inventory remained stable at 1,500 tons, with no changes [1] Group 2: Registered and Canceled Warrants - For copper, registered warrants are at 133,225 tons, with a 0.08% decrease, and canceled warrants at 20,725 tons, down by 0.60% [2] - Aluminum registered warrants are at 375,025 tons, unchanged, with canceled warrants at 110,250 tons, also unchanged [2] - Zinc registered warrants decreased by 6.70% to 33,050 tons, while canceled warrants increased by 14.97% to 17,475 tons [2] - Nickel registered warrants are at 216,510 tons, with a slight increase of 0.89%, and canceled warrants at 8,574 tons, up by 0.28% [2] - Tin inventory saw a significant increase in registered warrants by 11.44% to 2,435 tons, while canceled warrants decreased by 7.50% to 185 tons [2] Group 3: Location-Specific Inventory Changes - Copper inventory at Changsha remains at 52,100 tons with no changes, while Kaohsiung shows a decrease of 150 tons to 46,825 tons [4] - Rotterdam's copper inventory decreased by 75 tons to 19,450 tons, with a registered warrant ratio of 19.28% [4] - Aluminum inventory at Port Klang remains stable at 314,400 tons, with registered warrants at 206,820 tons [5] - Zinc inventory in Singapore decreased by 100 tons to 50,425 tons, with registered warrants at 32,975 tons [9] - Tin inventory at Yangshan increased by 235 tons to 2,620 tons, with registered warrants at 2,435 tons [11]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Gold, Aluminum, Polycrystalline Silicon, Stainless Steel, Iron Ore (long - term), Palm Oil (long - term), Rapeseed Oil (long - term), MO1, Calcium Carbide, PG (long - term) [1] - **Bearish**: Lithium Carbonate, Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) (short - term), Ethylene Glycol, Benzene, Styrene, CP (short - term) [1] - **Neutral**: Copper, Zinc, Nickel, Tin, Silicon, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Coke, Sugar, Corn (C01), Pulp, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, BR Rubber, PTA, Short - Fiber, Natural Gas, Propylene, PVC, Container Shipping to Europe [1] 2) Core Views - Short - term stock index futures' discount has widened again, and with liquidity drive, short - term index adjustments may bring long - position layout opportunities [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks [1] - The expected Fed rate cut in September supports gold prices, and gold may run strongly at high levels in the short term [1] - Weak US non - farm data has led to recession concerns, but the expected Fed rate cut limits the downside of copper prices [1] - With the approaching consumption peak season and the expected Fed rate cut, aluminum prices are expected to run strongly [1] - The supply and demand fundamentals of various commodities are complex, affected by factors such as production capacity changes, inventory levels, and macro - economic policies [1] 3) Summary by Variety Macro - Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - term adjustments may offer long - position opportunities due to widened discount and liquidity drive [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but central bank warns of interest - rate risks [1] - **Gold**: Supported by expected Fed rate cut in September, may run strongly at high levels short - term [1] - **Silver**: May run strongly at high levels short - term, beware of increased volatility [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Weak US non - farm data pressures prices, but expected Fed rate cut limits downside [1] - **Aluminum**: Expected to run strongly with approaching consumption peak season and expected Fed rate cut [1] - **Alumina**: Weak fundamentals due to increased production and inventory, consider long - position in far - month contracts [1] - **Zinc**: Social inventory increase pressures prices, but LME inventory decline and macro - support limit downside [1] - **Nickel**: Follows macro - trends and may run strongly short - term, mid - long - term surplus pressure exists [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Raw material support strengthens, futures may fluctuate strongly short - term [1] - **Tin**: Overall supported, look for low - long opportunities [1] - **Silicon**: May fluctuate due to supply resumption and potential policy changes [1] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: Expected to rise due to capacity reduction and low terminal demand [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Expected to decline due to expected mine复产 and limited subsequent replenishment space [1] Ferrous Metals - **Rebar**: Valuation returns to neutral, industry drive is unclear, macro - drive is positive [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Similar to rebar, valuation neutral, industry drive unclear, macro - drive positive [1] - **Iron Ore**: Near - month limited by production restrictions, far - month has upward potential [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Short - term回调 risk, long - term bullish, wait for callback to go long [1] - **Soybean Oil**: Domestic inventory may pressure the market, but bullish in Q4, look for callback to go long [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Consider 11 - 1 positive spread strategy due to trade - flow possibilities [1] - **Cotton**: New cotton supply may be tight short - term, acquisition game is a focus [1] - **Sugar**: Expected to fluctuate weakly, short - term downside limited [1] - **Corn**: New crop expected to be abundant, C01 suggest shorting at high prices [1] - **MO1**: In an upward channel, affected by USDA report, short - term fluctuate, buy at low prices [1] - **Pulp**: Consider 11 - 1 positive spread due to price changes and inventory adjustments [1] - **Log**: Fundamentals unchanged, futures may fluctuate weakly [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Affected by geopolitical situation, OPEC+ policy, and expected Fed rate cut [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Similar to crude oil, affected by multiple factors [1] - **BR Rubber**: Follow crude oil, pay attention to inventory and device maintenance [1] - **PTA**: Production increases, downstream profit recovers, affected by OPEC+ policy [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Expected to decline due to device投产 and increased hedging [1] - **Short - Fiber**: Factory devices resume, market delivery willingness weakens [1] - **Benzene and Styrene**: Supply increases, inventory accumulates, domestic import pressure rises [1] - **Natural Gas**: Limited upside due to weak domestic demand, supported by cost [1] - **Propylene**: Price fluctuates weakly due to macro - environment and demand [1] - **PVC**: Fluctuates due to supply pressure and inventory situation [1] - **Calcium Carbide**: Expected to rise due to approaching peak season and low inventory [1] - **PG**: International oil price supports, but fundamental factors limit upside [1] Others - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Supply exceeds the same - period level, freight rate may decline [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Gold, Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Zinc, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Palm Oil, Soybean Meal, Ethanol, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Styrene, Propylene, PP, Alumina [1] - **Bearish**: Iron Ore, Coke, Coking Coal, Soda Ash, Black Metal, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Logs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, BR Rubber, PTA, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PVC, LPG, Container Shipping Routes [1] - **Sideways**: Treasury Bonds, Silver, Alumina, Stainless Steel, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Paper Pulp, Live Pigs, Natural Rubber, PE, PP, PVC, PG [1] Core Views of the Report - Short - term stock index futures' discount has widened again, and with liquidity drive, short - term index adjustments may bring long - position layout opportunities. Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest - rate risk warning suppresses the upside. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates in September, providing support for gold prices. [1] - For base metals, the US CPI inflation data basically meets expectations, increasing the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. The approaching consumption peak season may drive up copper and aluminum prices. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, but there is still pressure from long - term primary nickel oversupply. [1] - In the black metal sector, the supply - demand situation is not optimistic in the short - term, with supply recovering and demand at risk of weakening, and high inventory levels. The steel market is under pressure due to supply surplus. [1] - In the agricultural products sector, the market situation varies. For example, palm oil has short - term callback risks but long - term upward logic. Cotton has short - term supply tightness, while sugar is expected to be in a weak - sideway trend. [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, the overall situation is affected by factors such as production increases, cost support, and demand changes. For example, crude oil's fundamental situation is loose, and PTA's production has recovered. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - term discount widening and liquidity drive may offer long - position opportunities during short - term index adjustments [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but central - bank interest - rate risk warning suppresses upside [1] Precious Metals - **Gold**: Fed's expected September interest - rate cut provides support, short - term high - level strong operation with attention to volatility risks [1] - **Silver**: Short - term high - level strong operation [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: US inflation data and approaching consumption peak season may drive up prices [1] - **Aluminum**: Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and consumption peak season may lead to a strong trend [1] - **Alumina**: Production and inventory are increasing, but price is near the cost line with limited downward space [1] - **Zinc**: Social inventory increase pressures the price, but LME inventory decline and macro support limit the downside [1] - **Nickel**: Short - term macro - driven strong oscillation, long - term primary nickel oversupply pressure exists [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Raw - material support exists, short - term sideway operation [1] - **Tin**: Overall support exists, pay attention to low - long opportunities [1] Black Metals - **Rebar**: Valuation returns to neutral, industrial drive is unclear, and macro drive is positive [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, far - month contracts have upward adjustment opportunities [1] - **Iron Ore**: Short - term supply - demand is not optimistic, with high inventory [1] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Supply - demand is weak, price is under pressure [1] - **Soda Ash**: Supply surplus pressure is large, price is under pressure [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Short - term callback risk, long - term upward logic [1] - **Soybean Meal**: Domestic inventory increase may pressure the price, but long - term upward logic remains [1] - **Cotton**: Short - term supply tightness, new - cotton acquisition game is the focus [1] - **Sugar**: Expected to be in a weak - sideway trend, short - term downward space is limited [1] - **Corn**: New - grain harvest may bring selling pressure, C01 is expected to decline [1] - **Soybean Meal**: MO1 has limited downward space, short - term sideway adjustment, consider low - long [1] - **Paper Pulp**: Consider 11 - 1 positive spread [1] - **Logs**: Fundamental situation is stable, price is in a weak - sideway trend [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tension, OPEC+ production increase, and Fed's interest - rate cut expectation affect the price [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Similar influencing factors as crude oil [1] - **Natural Rubber**: Raw - material cost support, slow inventory removal, and negative market sentiment [1] - **BR Rubber**: Follow crude oil, pay attention to inventory removal and device maintenance [1] - **PTA**: Production recovery, downstream profit improvement [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Basis strengthening, new device production pressure [1] - **Short - Fiber**: Device return, weakening delivery willingness [1] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Inventory accumulation, supply increase, import pressure [1] - **PE**: Macro - positive, more maintenance, weak - sideway price [1] - **PP**: Maintenance support is limited, sideway - weak trend [1] - **PVC**: Return to fundamentals, supply pressure, sideway - weak trend [1] - **Alumina**: Approaching peak season, low inventory, price rebound [1] - **LPG**: Crude oil production increase, fundamental pressure, downstream profit deterioration [1] Shipping - **Container Shipping Routes**: September supply exceeds the same - period level, freight rate decline is faster than expected [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report comprehensively presents macro - economic data, commodity investment information, financial news, and stock market trends, offering insights into the economic and market conditions across various sectors [1][2][14][32]. - Different institutions have diverse outlooks on the bond market. Some believe that after continuous adjustments, bond risks are released, and there may be a more optimistic outlook, while others focus on factors such as fiscal policy and inflation in relation to the bond market [28][29]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Quick View - GDP growth in Q2 2025 was 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the same period last year [1]. - Manufacturing PMI in August 2025 was 49.4%, a slight increase from the previous month, while non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, also up from the previous month [1]. - In July 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 11.8%, 5.6%, and 8.8% respectively, with M1 showing a significant year - on - year improvement [1]. - In August 2025, CPI was - 0.4% year - on - year, and PPI was - 2.9% year - on - year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The Shanghai American Chamber of Commerce's report shows that the Chinese government's market - opening efforts have improved the business environment, with 71% of surveyed enterprises profitable in 2024, up from 66% in 2023 [2]. - The proportion of US companies choosing the US as an investment transfer destination decreased by 4 percentage points to 18% last year, indicating that the "manufacturing回流" policy had limited effect [2]. - China will take necessary measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests in response to Mexico's potential tariff hikes [2]. - The US canceled tariffs on most Brazilian pulp exports on September 5 [2]. - US economic data shows that the 8 - month CPI was in line with expectations, and the number of initial jobless claims reached a new high since October 2021, leading traders to expect three Fed rate cuts by the end of the year [3]. 3.2.2 Metals - International precious metal futures closed mixed. Market expectations of a Fed rate cut and a decline in confidence in US dollar assets are driving factors [4]. - Gold has become the top reserve asset for global central banks, with its proportion in reserves exceeding US Treasuries for the first time since 1996 [5]. - In September, precious metal prices reached new highs both internationally and domestically, attracting over 100 billion yuan in funds to the domestic gold futures market [5]. - Some online gold repurchase businesses have been suspended, possibly due to regulatory and risk - control reasons [5]. - Barrick Gold plans to sell a Canadian gold mine for up to $1.1 billion [5]. - In July, Chile's state - owned copper company's copper production increased by 6.4% year - on - year, while the production of the Collahuasi mine decreased by 27.2% [6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Heavy rain in Indonesia has affected coal production and transportation, potentially narrowing the price gap between domestic and imported coal. September's coal imports are expected to remain above 40 million tons [8]. - Vale received an operating license for a 20 - million - ton iron ore project in Brazil [8]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Ningde Times plans to resume production at the Jiaxiaowo lithium mine, aiming for full - load production and cost - reduction measures [9]. - International oil prices fell due to increased supply and weak demand. OPEC + production increased in August, and US inventories reached a new high [9]. - The IEA expects global oil supply to grow faster than expected this year and a potential surplus in 2026 [9]. - Russia's ESPO crude oil exports from the Kozmino port will decrease from 4.2 million tons in August to 4 million tons in September [11]. - The European Central Bank predicts that the oil price in 2025 will be $69.7 per barrel [12]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - India's sugar production in 2025 - 26 is estimated to be 34.9 million tons [13]. - In August, US coffee imports from Brazil decreased significantly, while Germany became the largest overseas market for Brazilian coffee [13]. - Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 180 million tons, with 19% of the soybeans pre - sold [13]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On September 11, the central bank conducted 292 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 79.4 billion yuan [14]. 3.3.2 Key News - The market expects the central bank to restart treasury bond trading operations, with a more favorable view of the fourth - quarter restart [15]. - The US economic data has led traders to expect three Fed rate cuts by the end of the year [15]. - Gold has become the top reserve asset for global central banks [16]. - China will conduct a two - year factor market reform pilot in 10 regions [16]. - China will take measures to safeguard its rights and interests in response to Mexico's potential tariff hikes [16]. - The government will implement policies to stabilize foreign trade [17]. - 27 provinces plan to issue about 777.1 billion yuan of local bonds in September, with some expanding the use of special bonds to government investment funds [17]. - The North - Exchange convertible bond market opened this week, with light trading volume [17]. - Most bank wealth management companies achieved net inflows in August, with a total increase of about 285.7 billion yuan in management scale [18]. - The average 7 - day annualized yield of money market funds is approaching 1%, with 80 products having yields below 1% [18]. - The reform and restructuring of rural banks are accelerating [18]. - Bank wealth management products are attracting deposits, with 12 of the top 14 wealth management companies achieving net growth in August [19]. - The bond market has experienced a decline, mainly due to institutional behavior and low bond yields [19]. - The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, indicating that the inflation - reduction process is over [20]. - The US fiscal deficit in 2025 is higher than the same period in 2024 [20]. - There are various bond - related events, including debt restructuring, cancellation of bond issuance, and changes in corporate management [20]. - Some companies' credit ratings have been adjusted [21]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The inter - bank bond market showed a mixed trend, with short - and medium - term bonds strengthening and 30 - year bonds weakening [22]. - The exchange - traded bond market had some bonds rising and others falling [22]. - The convertible bond index rose, with some bonds having significant gains and losses [22]. - Money market interest rates showed different trends, with some rising and others falling [23]. - Bond issuance and bidding results showed different yields and multiples [24]. - European and US bond yields had different changes [25]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed lower, while the RMB central parity rate against the US dollar rose [27]. - The US dollar index fell, and most non - US currencies rose [27]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that bond risks have been released, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield may return to 1.6% [28]. - CICC Fixed Income expects the low - inflation pattern to continue in the short term and suggests seizing bond trading opportunities [28]. - Huatai Fixed Income believes that the bond market adjustment is due to institutional behavior and suggests looking for opportunities after October [29]. - Changjiang Fixed Income expects the social financing growth rate to peak and the bond market to remain weakly volatile [30]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - A - shares rose significantly, with over 4200 stocks rising, and the ChiNext Index returned to 3000 points [32]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell, with pharmaceutical stocks weak and chip and non - ferrous sectors performing well [33]. - The continuous rise of the ChiNext Index is related to its heavy - weight stocks, especially in the AI + direction [33].

Core Viewpoints - The article discusses the current economic conditions in China and the U.S., highlighting the implementation of market-oriented reforms in key urban areas in China and the stable inflation rates in the U.S. [1][4][5] Economic News - The Chinese government has approved market-oriented reform pilot programs in ten urban areas, including Beijing's sub-center and the Yangtze River Delta [5] - The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.9% year-on-year in August, aligning with expectations, while the core CPI increased by 3.1% [4] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose to 263,000, the highest in nearly four years, indicating potential labor market weakness [4] Market Performance - U.S. stock indices experienced a rebound, with significant gains in the communication sector and a total market turnover of 2.46 trillion yuan [2][9] - The financing balance in China increased by 5.774 billion yuan, indicating a continuation of liquidity support [2][9] - The market is currently in a phase characterized by a "policy bottom, liquidity bottom, and valuation bottom," suggesting potential for further growth despite short-term volatility [2][9] Commodity Insights - Oil prices fell by 1.45% in the night session, with OPEC+ countries planning to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in October [11][12] - Glass and soda ash markets are experiencing slow recovery in supply and demand, with glass production inventories decreasing by 1.04 million heavy boxes [16] - The methanol market is under pressure due to high inventory levels, with coastal methanol stocks reaching a historical high of 1.508 million tons [13] Industry-Specific Data - The passenger car market in China saw retail sales of 304,000 units in early September, a 10% year-on-year decline, while wholesale figures showed a 5% decrease [6] - The domestic glass and soda ash markets are in a process of inventory digestion, with a focus on supply-side adjustments [16] - The copper market is experiencing price fluctuations due to tight supply and varying demand from different sectors [18] Shipping and Trade - The European shipping index is under pressure, with a decline of 5.28% as shipping companies adjust pricing strategies ahead of the National Day holiday [30]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. In the macro - financial sector, the stock index may face short - term adjustment pressure but has a long - term bullish outlook; the bond market is expected to be volatile in the short term. In the non - ferrous metals sector, most metals have their own supply - demand and price characteristics, with some expected to be strong and others to be weak. In the black building materials sector, steel prices are under pressure due to weak demand, while iron ore shows a relatively strong trend. In the energy and chemical sector, different products have different supply - demand and price trends. In the agricultural products sector, prices of various products are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and seasonality [3][6][23] - The "anti - involution" policy has an impact on the market, but its real - world implementation and effectiveness will determine whether it can drive the market to continue the upward trend similar to the supply - side structural reform. The market also needs to pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate decision and the recovery of peak - season demand [29][30] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Financial 3.1.1 Stock Index - News: In August, global hedge funds' net buying of Chinese stocks reached a new high since September 2024; Tesla is finalizing the Optimus V3 design; the US PPI in August increased by 2.6% year - on - year, lower than the expected 3.3%, and decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, lower than the expected 0.3%; Oracle's stock price soared due to a $455 billion order [2] - Transaction Logic: After the previous continuous rise, high - level hot sectors such as AI have shown differences recently. The market risk preference has decreased, and the short - term index faces adjustment pressure. However, in the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the idea is mainly to buy on dips [3] 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - Market: On Wednesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined. In August, the CPI was flat month - on - month and decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, while the core CPI increased by 0.9% year - on - year. The PPI was flat month - on - month and decreased by 2.9% year - on - year. The Ministry of Finance will tender and re - issue 35 billion yuan of 20 - year ultra - long - term special treasury bonds on September 17. The central bank conducted 304 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Wednesday, with a net investment of 74.9 billion yuan [4] - Strategy: The manufacturing PMI in August improved but was still below the boom - bust line. The central bank is expected to maintain loose funds. The rise in market risk preference suppresses the bond market sentiment, and the bond market is expected to be volatile in the short term [5][6] 3.1.3 Precious Metals - Market: Shanghai gold rose 0.21% to 835.16 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 0.47% to 9817 yuan/kg. COMEX gold fell 0.09% to $3678.8/ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.11% to $41.65/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.04%, and the US dollar index was 97.79 [7] - Outlook: The US inflation data in August was significantly lower than expected, and the labor market weakened. It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates more than three times in the remaining meetings of this year. It is recommended to buy on dips in the precious metals sector, especially focusing on the rise of silver prices [7][8] 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - Market: The US PPI data was weaker than expected, and copper prices rose. LME copper rose 0.96% to $10012/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 80190 yuan/ton. The LME copper inventory decreased, and the domestic copper inventory and basis showed different trends [10] - Outlook: The market is hesitating between recession and interest - rate cut trading. Overseas copper mine supply has some disturbances, and domestic copper production has decreased marginally. Copper prices are expected to continue to be strong, with the Shanghai copper main contract running in the range of 79500 - 80800 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M in the range of 9900 - 10100 dollars/ton [10] 3.2.2 Aluminum - Market: Aluminum prices fluctuated. LME aluminum fell 0.21% to $2622/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20830 yuan/ton. The domestic aluminum inventory decreased, and the basis and market atmosphere showed different trends [11] - Outlook: Aluminum prices are oscillating between macro expectations and fundamental realities. Overseas interest - rate cut expectations and the resilience of aluminum product exports provide support, but the weak improvement in domestic terminal demand restricts the upward space. Pay attention to the peak - season demand and inventory trends. The domestic main contract is expected to run in the range of 20700 - 20960 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M in the range of 2600 - 2650 dollars/ton [11] 3.2.3 Zinc - Market: The zinc market shows an over - supply situation. The zinc ore and zinc ingot inventories are increasing, the TC of zinc concentrate is rising, and the domestic supply is loose. The LME market has a low inventory of zinc warrants, and the contango is rising. The pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas is intensifying [12] - Outlook: The zinc market is expected to be in a low - level oscillating pattern with limited short - term decline space [12] 3.2.4 Lead - Market: The lead industry shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The shortage of raw materials restricts the production of smelters, and the downstream consumption is weak. The lead ingot supply has decreased marginally, but there is still a risk of price decline if the market sentiment weakens [13] - Outlook: The lead price has certain support at the bottom, but there is a large downward risk if the commodity sentiment weakens and the smelting recovers [13] 3.2.5 Nickel - Market: The nickel price fluctuated. The profit of nickel - iron plants has improved but is still at a low level. The demand for nickel - iron from stainless steel plants provides support. The supply of intermediate products is tight, and the demand from some enterprises provides price support [14] - Outlook: The short - term macro environment is positive, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts may drive the rise of non - ferrous metals. Although the supply of refined nickel is in an over - supply situation, the long - term support from the US loose expectation and domestic anti - involution policy is strong. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the Shanghai nickel main contract running in the range of 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M in the range of 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [14] 3.2.6 Tin - Market: Tin prices rebounded slightly. The supply of tin mines in Myanmar is recovering slowly, and domestic smelter production is affected. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the inventory has increased slightly [15] - Outlook: Tin prices are expected to be volatile in the short term due to the weak demand in the off - season and the significant short - term decline in supply [15] 3.2.7 Lithium Carbonate - Market: The price of lithium carbonate decreased. The resumption of production of the Jiaxiaowo mine may change the supply - demand situation. The domestic lithium carbonate is expected to be destocked in September, and the spot strength may support the bottom [16] - Outlook: Pay attention to the market atmosphere and industrial information. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2511 contract is expected to run in the range of 68600 - 72500 yuan/ton [16] 3.2.8 Alumina - Market: The alumina index rose 0.14% to 2934 yuan/ton. The domestic and overseas prices and basis showed different trends, and the futures inventory decreased [17][18] - Outlook: Overseas ore supply is improving, and the over - capacity pattern in the smelting section is difficult to change in the short term. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation may drive the non - ferrous metals sector to be strong. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with the domestic main contract AO2601 running in the range of 2850 - 3250 yuan/ton [18] 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - Market: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12915 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The spot price was stable, and the inventory decreased [19] - Outlook: The stainless steel market shows a pattern of narrow - range oscillation, with different price trends for different products. The overall market trading atmosphere is weak, and the cold - rolled steel trading is particularly sluggish [19] 3.2.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market: The AD2511 contract rose 0.22% to 20350 yuan/ton. The spot price increased, and the inventory increased slightly [20] - Outlook: The downstream of the cast aluminum alloy is gradually transitioning from the off - season to the peak season. The cost support is strong, and the market activity is increasing. The price is expected to remain high in the short term [20] 3.3 Black Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - Market: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased. The rebar main contract closed at 3109 yuan/ton, down 0.44%, and the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3342 yuan/ton, down 0.20%. The inventory increased, and the demand was weak [22][23] - Outlook: The steel market is in a weak situation. The demand is still weak in the peak season, and the steel price may decline further if the demand cannot be effectively repaired [23] 3.3.2 Iron Ore - Market: The iron ore main contract (I2601) closed at 805 yuan/ton, with no change. The supply decreased, the demand decreased, and the inventory increased [24][25] - Outlook: The iron ore price is expected to be oscillating and strong in the short term. Pay attention to the recovery of steel mill production and the peak - season demand [25] 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass - Market: The glass price decreased slightly. The domestic glass inventory increased, and the downstream demand was not significantly improved [26] - Outlook: The glass price is expected to be oscillating in the short term. In the long term, it will follow the macro sentiment, and the price may rise if there are substantial policies in the real estate sector [26] - Soda Ash - Market: The soda ash price was stable. The inventory increased slightly, and the downstream demand was cautious [27] - Outlook: The soda ash price is expected to be oscillating in the short term. In the long term, the price center is expected to rise, but the upward space is limited due to the weak downstream demand [27] 3.3.4 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market: The manganese silicon main contract (SM509) rose 0.27%, and the ferrosilicon main contract (SF511) rose 0.14%. The spot prices were stable, and the basis showed different trends [28] - Outlook: The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices are expected to be oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the pressure and support levels [28] 3.3.5 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon - Market: The industrial silicon main contract (SI2511) rose 3.03%. The spot prices were stable, and the basis showed different trends [32] - Outlook: The industrial silicon price is expected to be oscillating in the short term. Pay attention to the news drive and risk control [32][33] - Polysilicon - Market: The polysilicon main contract (PS2511) fell 1.19%. The spot prices decreased slightly, and the basis was negative [34] - Outlook: The polysilicon price is in a pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation". The price is expected to be volatile, and pay attention to the risk control [34][35] 3.4 Energy and Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - Market: NR and RU oscillated weakly, following the trend of industrial products such as coking coal [37] - Outlook: The rubber price may rise due to the rainy weather in Thailand. The mid - term view is bullish, and the short - term view is neutral, suggesting waiting and seeing or quick - in and quick - out operations [37][38][39] 3.4.2 Crude Oil - Market: The INE main crude oil futures rose 0.58% to 486.2 yuan/barrel. The US EIA data showed that the crude oil and refined product inventories increased [40][41] - Outlook: The oil price is currently undervalued, and the fundamental support is strong. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price may rise further. It is recommended to be long on crude oil [41] 3.4.3 Methanol - Market: The methanol 01 contract rose 9 yuan/ton. The domestic supply increased, the overseas supply was at a high level, and the demand showed different trends [42] - Outlook: The short - term reality is weak, but the market expectation has changed. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the 1 - 5 positive spread [42] 3.4.4 Urea - Market: The urea 01 contract fell 14 yuan/ton. The supply decreased, and the demand was weak [43] - Outlook: The urea price is expected to be in a range - bound operation. It is recommended to buy on dips [43] 3.4.5 Styrene - Market: The spot price of styrene decreased, and the futures price increased. The BZN spread is at a low level, and the cost and supply - demand sides show different trends [44][45] - Outlook: The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the styrene price may rebound after the inventory reaches the inflection point [44] 3.4.6 PVC - Market: The PVC01 contract rose 10 yuan. The cost was stable, the supply increased, and the demand was weak [46][47] - Outlook: The PVC market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand and high valuation. It is recommended to short on rallies, but beware of the impact of anti - involution sentiment [47] 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - Market: The EG01 contract fell 3 yuan. The supply decreased marginally, the demand increased, and the inventory increased [48] - Outlook: The ethylene glycol inventory is expected to increase in the medium term, and the valuation may decline [48] 3.4.8 PTA - Market: The PTA01 contract rose 20 yuan. The supply decreased marginally, the demand increased, and the inventory decreased [49] - Outlook: The PTA market is in a pattern of de - stocking. It is recommended to buy on dips following PX, paying attention to the peak - season terminal performance [49] 3.4.9 p - Xylene - Market: The PX11 contract rose 44 yuan. The supply increased, the demand increased, and the inventory decreased [50] - Outlook: The PX price is expected to be oscillating. It is recommended to buy on dips following crude oil, paying attention to the peak - season demand [50][51] 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - Market: The PE futures price decreased. The cost support exists, the supply is limited, and the demand is expected to increase [52] - Outlook: The PE price is expected to oscillate upward [52] 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - Market: The PP futures price decreased. The supply pressure is large, and the demand is in a seasonal rebound [53] - Outlook: The PP market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the inventory pressure is high. It is recommended to buy on dips the LL - PP2601 contract [53] 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Live Pigs - Market: The domestic pig price continued to decline. The supply is expected to be high in September, but there are potential support factors such as consumption and stockpiling [55] - Outlook: The pig price is expected to be in a narrow - range adjustment. It is recommended to pay attention to the low - level rebound and short - selling opportunities after the rebound, and continue the far - month reverse spread strategy [55] 3.5.2 Eggs

Core Insights - The report provides an overview of the changes in LME (London Metal Exchange) inventories for various metals, highlighting significant fluctuations in stock levels and the implications for market dynamics [1][3][5]. Group 1: Copper Inventory Changes - LME copper inventory decreased by 225 tons, bringing the total to 155,050 tons, with registered warrants at 133,325 tons and cancelled warrants at 21,725 tons, representing a cancellation ratio of 14.01% [3][4]. - Specific locations such as Kaohsiung and Rotterdam showed minor changes, with Kaohsiung's inventory down by 175 tons and Rotterdam remaining stable [3]. Group 2: Aluminum Inventory Changes - LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged at 485,275 tons, with registered warrants at 375,025 tons and cancelled warrants at 110,250 tons, maintaining a cancellation ratio of 22.72% [5][6]. - The inventory at Port Klang was stable at 314,400 tons, while other locations like Kaohsiung and Rotterdam also reported no changes [5]. Group 3: Zinc Inventory Changes - LME zinc inventory decreased by 200 tons to 50,825 tons, with registered warrants at 35,450 tons and cancelled warrants at 15,375 tons, resulting in a cancellation ratio of 30.25% [9][10]. - The inventory in Singapore mirrored this trend, also decreasing by 200 tons [9]. Group 4: Tin Inventory Changes - LME tin inventory increased by 55 tons to 2,410 tons, with registered warrants at 2,185 tons and cancelled warrants at 225 tons, leading to a cancellation ratio of 9.34% [11][12]. - Locations such as Port Klang and Singapore also reported increases in inventory [11]. Group 5: Nickel Inventory Changes - LME nickel inventory rose by 3,024 tons to 221,094 tons, with registered warrants at 212,502 tons and cancelled warrants at 8,592 tons, resulting in a cancellation ratio of 3.89% [13]. - Significant increases were noted in locations like Singapore and Hring, contributing to the overall rise in nickel inventory [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market experienced a significant correction, with major indices and most sectors declining. The consumer sector bucked the trend, while the TMT sector saw a deep correction. The four major stock index futures also declined, and the basis of the main contracts showed a neutral oscillation. Given the high volatility and the potential for the A-share market to enter a high-level oscillation pattern after a large increase, it is recommended to wait and see. [2][3][4] - The Treasury bond futures mostly closed higher, but short-term trading may remain range-bound. The market should continue to monitor the stock market trend and the release of economic data in August to assess the impact on the bond market. A range trading strategy is suggested, with attention paid to the equity market and fundamental changes. [5][6] - The precious metals market ended its consecutive gains and slightly declined due to the fading of risk aversion and profit-taking by long positions at high levels. With an increased probability of a Fed rate cut in September, the price of gold is expected to rise to over $3,600 in the short term, while silver prices may see increased volatility and are recommended for high-sell and low-buy operations. [7][9][10] - The container shipping futures (EC) showed a weak oscillation. The spot prices continued to decline, and the futures market faced pressure from the weak spot market. There may be a bottom-fishing opportunity for the December contract, and a spread arbitrage strategy between the December and October contracts is recommended. [11][12] - Most non-ferrous metals showed various trends. For example, copper prices had an upward trend but faced constraints; alumina showed a weak oscillation; aluminum prices were expected to remain range-bound; and zinc prices were likely to oscillate. The market conditions and trends of each metal were affected by factors such as supply and demand, macro policies, and inventory changes. [13][16][18] - In the black metal market, steel prices were restricted by production cuts and weak demand during the off-season. Iron ore prices followed the steel price trend, with increased shipments and arrivals. Coking coal prices were weak, and coke prices faced a situation where the seventh round of price increases had been implemented, but the eighth round was blocked. [40][41][46] - In the agricultural product market, the expected high yield of US soybeans suppressed the market, while the domestic market for meal products had a positive outlook. The pig market had limited supply-demand contradictions, and the corn market showed a weak and oscillating trend. [53][54][59] Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: The A-share market continued to correct on Thursday, with major indices significantly declining. The consumer sector rose, while the TMT sector fell sharply. The four major stock index futures also declined, and the basis of the main contracts showed a neutral oscillation. [2][3] - News: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a plan to stabilize the growth of the electronic information manufacturing industry from 2025 - 2026. Overseas, the Fed's Beige Book indicated little change in economic activity, and consumer spending was flat or decreased. The number of job openings in the US in July dropped to a 10 - month low. [3][4] - Funds: On September 4, the A-share trading volume increased, and the northbound capital trading volume was 332.562 billion yuan. The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 15.08 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations. [4] - Operation suggestion: As the impact of monetary policy in the second half of the year on the equity market is crucial, and the A-share market may enter a high-level oscillation pattern after a large increase, it is recommended to wait and see for the next - stage direction. [4] Treasury Bond Futures - Market performance: Treasury bond futures mostly closed higher, but the yields of some spot bonds rose. The short - term trading of Treasury bond futures may remain range - bound. [5] - Funds: The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of funds through reverse repurchase operations, but the inter - bank funds were still relatively loose. The central bank planned to conduct a 100 - billion - yuan 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operation. [6] - Operation suggestion: Monitor the stock market trend and the release of economic data in August. A range trading strategy is recommended, with attention paid to the equity market and fundamental changes. [6] Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market review: US employment data showed signs of weakness, while the service industry PMI expanded. Fed officials had different views on interest rate cuts. The precious metals market ended its consecutive gains and slightly declined due to the fading of risk aversion and profit - taking by long positions at high levels. [7][8][9] - Future outlook: With an increased probability of a Fed rate cut in September, gold prices are expected to rise to over $3,600 in the short term. Silver prices may see increased volatility, and high - sell and low - buy operations are recommended. [9][10] - Funds: The holdings of gold and silver ETFs increased significantly in August, and the net long speculative positions showed an upward trend. [10] Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Futures (EC) - Spot quotes: As of September 5, the spot prices of major shipping companies continued to decline slowly. [11] - Shipping indices: As of September 1, the SCFIS European line index and the US West line index declined. As of August 29, the SCFI composite index rose, but the Shanghai - Europe freight rate decreased. [11] - Fundamentals: As of September 2, the global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year. The Eurozone's composite PMI and the US manufacturing PMI showed different trends. [11] - Logic: The futures market declined, and the upward momentum was suppressed by the weak spot market. There may be a bottom - fishing opportunity for the December contract, and a spread arbitrage strategy between the December and October contracts is recommended. [12] - Operation suggestion: Expect a weak oscillation and consider a spread arbitrage strategy between the December and October contracts. [12] Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: As of September 4, copper prices rose, but the spot trading was weak. [13] - Macro: The Fed's stance became more dovish, increasing the probability of a rate cut in September. Key events in September, such as the release of economic data and the FOMC meeting, may cause market fluctuations. [13][14] - Supply: The TC of copper concentrate was at a low level. The domestic electrolytic copper production in August decreased slightly month - on - month and was expected to decline further in September due to factors such as maintenance and supply shortages. [14] - Demand: The operating rates of copper rod production decreased. The domestic demand remained resilient, but there was marginal pressure in Q3. The power and new energy sectors supported the demand. [15] - Inventory: The LME copper inventory decreased, while the domestic social inventory and COMEX copper inventory increased. [15] - Logic: The Fed's dovish stance boosted copper prices, but the upside was limited by concerns about stagflation. The fundamentals showed a "weak reality + stable expectation" state. Copper prices are expected to at least oscillate and may enter a new upward cycle when the commodity and financial attributes resonate. [16] - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 79,000 - 81,000 yuan/ton. [16] - Short - term view: Oscillation. [16] Alumina - Spot: On September 4, the spot prices of alumina in various regions decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly from a high level, causing the spot prices to loosen. [16] - Supply: In August 2025, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina in China increased year - on - year and month - on - month. With the industry still profitable, the operating capacity is expected to continue to increase slightly in September. [17] - Inventory: As of September 4, the port inventory remained unchanged week - on - week, while the registered warehouse receipts increased. [17] - Logic: The alumina futures oscillated, and the market was dominated by fundamentals. The supply was under pressure due to new capacity, while the demand was weak. The inventory continued to accumulate, suppressing the price. The downside is limited, and the upside requires supply disruptions or sentiment catalysts. [18] - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton. Consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term. [18][19] - View: Weak oscillation, short - selling on rallies in the medium term. [19] Aluminum - Spot: On September 4, the spot price of A00 aluminum decreased, and the premium increased. [19] - Supply: In August 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The proportion of molten aluminum increased, and the ingot casting volume decreased. [19] - Demand: The operating rates of downstream industries showed marginal improvement. [20] - Inventory: On September 4, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased week - on - week, and the inventory inflection point was not clear. [20][21] - Logic: The Fed's rate - cut expectation boosted the market sentiment, but the high price suppressed downstream procurement, and the inventory increase pressured the price. Aluminum prices are expected to remain range - bound, and attention should be paid to the actual demand during the peak season, inventory changes, and macro - policy implementation. [21] - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton. [21] - View: Wide - range oscillation. [21] Aluminum Alloy - Spot: On September 4, the spot price of ADC12 aluminum alloy remained unchanged. [21] - Supply: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased, and the operating rate increased. In August, the industry was in the off - season, but some enterprises may increase production in anticipation of the peak season. [22] - Demand: In August, the demand was weak, but it showed marginal improvement at the end of the month. The demand is expected to recover moderately in September. [22] - Inventory: The social inventory increased due to the off - season. [22] - Logic: The futures price oscillated with the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the demand was in the off - season. As the peak season approaches, the spot price is expected to remain stable, and the price difference with aluminum may converge. [23][24] - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20,000 - 20,600 yuan/ton. Consider a spread arbitrage strategy if the price difference is over 500. [24] - View: Strong oscillation. [24] Zinc - Spot: On September 4, the average price of 0 zinc ingots decreased, and the spot trading improved after the futures price declined. [24] - Supply: The TC of zinc concentrate remained high, and the supply of zinc ore was loose. The production of refined zinc in August was higher than expected, and it is expected to continue to increase in 1 - 9 months of 2025. [25] - Demand: The operating rates of primary processing industries were at a seasonal low but had limited room for further decline. The downstream procurement sentiment improved after the zinc price declined. [26] - Inventory: The domestic social inventory increased, while the LME inventory decreased. [26] - Logic: The supply of zinc ore was loose, and the production of refined zinc was high. The demand was about to enter the peak season, and the spot trading improved. The global inventory was low, providing support for the price. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate, and upward or downward breakthroughs require specific conditions. [27] - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton. [27] - Short - term view: Oscillation. [27] Tin - Spot: On September 4, the price of 1 tin decreased, and the market trading was mixed. [27] - Supply: In July, the domestic tin ore import decreased, and the supply was difficult to improve in the short term. The tin ingot import increased. [28][29] - Demand and inventory: The operating rate of the soldering tin industry decreased, and the demand was weak. The LME inventory and the warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, while the social inventory decreased. [29] - Logic: The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand was weak. The tin price oscillated at a high level. If the supply recovers smoothly, consider short - selling on rallies; otherwise, the price is expected to continue to oscillate at a high level. [30] - Operation suggestion: The operating range is expected to be 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton. [30] - Recent view: Wide - range oscillation. [30] Nickel - Spot: As of September 4, the price of electrolytic nickel decreased, and the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged. [30] - Supply: In July 2025, the production of refined nickel increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the monthly production plan is expected to increase slightly. [31] - Demand: The demand for electroplating and alloy was stable, while the demand for stainless steel was general. The demand for nickel sulfate was under pressure. [31] - Inventory: The overseas inventory remained high, the domestic social inventory decreased, and the bonded area inventory remained stable. [31] - Logic: The strengthening of the US dollar suppressed the non - ferrous metal market. The nickel price oscillated weakly, and the cost provided some support. The supply is expected to be loose in the medium term, restricting the upside. The price is expected to adjust within a range. [32] - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. [32][33] - Short - term view: Range adjustment. [32] Stainless Steel - Spot: As of September 4, the spot price of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel remained unchanged, and the basis increased. [33][34] - Raw materials: The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron was strong. The price of chrome ore was supported by cost, and the supply of chrome iron was tight. [34] - Supply: In August, the domestic stainless steel production increased, and the production is expected to continue to increase in September. [34] - Inventory: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the warehouse receipts decreased. [35] - Logic: The stainless steel futures oscillated slightly lower. The cost was supported by raw material prices, but the demand was weak. The market is cautiously optimistic about the peak season, but the demand is still weak. The price is expected to oscillate within a range. [36] - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 12,600 - 13,400 yuan/ton. [36][37] - Short - term view: Range oscillation. [36] Lithium Carbonate - Spot: As of September 4, the spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased. The salt factories were reluctant to sell, while the traders were more willing to sell. The downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand. [37] - Supply: In August, the production of lithium carbonate increased. The supply was affected by factors such as mine permit approval, and imports supplemented the supply. [38] - Demand: The demand was robust and optimistic, but the significant driving force was not obvious. The demand in September is expected to increase. [38] - Inventory: The overall inventory decreased last week, with the upstream inventory decreasing and the downstream inventory increasing. [39] - Logic: The lithium carbonate futures opened low and closed high, and the market sentiment improved. The fundamentals remained in a tight - balance state. The price is expected to oscillate widely around 75,000 yuan/ton and then stabilize. [39][40] - Operation suggestion: Wait and see. [40] - Short - term view: Wide - range oscillation. [40] Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: The steel billet price remained stable, and the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased slightly. The January contract of rebar had a premium over the spot, while the January contract of hot - rolled coil had a discount. [40] - Cost and profit: The cost support is expected to weaken due to the limited supply recovery of coking coal and the slight increase in iron ore inventory. The steel profit decreased significantly in August. [41] - Supply: From January to August, the iron element production increased year - on - year. In August, the production increased compared with July, mainly due to the increase in scrap steel consumption. This week, the iron water production decreased due to production restrictions, but it is expected to recover next week. The production of finished steel products decreased less than that of iron water. [41] - Demand: The domestic demand and export increased in the first half of the year, but the domestic demand is expected to weaken seasonally. The steel export remained high. The apparent demand decreased seasonally in August but is expected to recover. [41] - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products increased, mainly due to the increase in rebar inventory. The inventory increase is expected to slow down in the future. [42] - View: This week, the supply and demand