2025年4月22日A股三大指数涨跌不一，内需板块走强，交通运输ETF(159666)逆势翻红，成分股华 贸物流、保税科技涨停，中储股份、海晨股份、建发股份涨超3%。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 交通运输ETF（159666）及其联接基金（019405/019404）是全市场唯一跟踪中证全指运输指数的 ETF基金，交通运输板块中的一些公司具备高股息、低估值和稳健业绩的特征，其涵盖了A股市场包括 物流、铁路公路、航运港口、机场等，能够充分反映出A股运输行业上市公司的整体表现。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 短期来看内需敞口板块公路铁路、快递提供一定防御性；中期关注航空、港口估值底部配置机会； 长期挖掘贸易重构下的非美出海贸易的物流资产。 交通运输板块通常具有低估值和高股息的特性，这使得其在市场波动中表现出较强的防御性。交通 运输板块的防御属性主要体现在其经济周期敏感性和市场表现上 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the transportation industry [1][4][7]. Core Views - The report highlights the impact of US-China tariffs on shipping patterns, suggesting a focus on domestic demand and high-dividend sectors [1][3]. - The oil shipping market remains strong, but VLCC rates have declined due to tariff uncertainties, with potential recovery if US-China negotiations succeed [1][21]. - The air travel market is expected to stabilize in 2025, with domestic airlines showing signs of recovery in profitability [2][45]. - The express delivery sector shows resilience, with major players like SF Express and ZTO Express expected to maintain growth despite competitive pressures [3][55][59]. Summary by Sections Shipping Sector - Oil shipping rates have shown fluctuations, with VLCC rates impacted by tariff policies and global economic uncertainties [1][21]. - The report recommends companies like COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy for their potential value amidst market volatility [1][25]. Aviation Sector - Domestic passenger flight volumes are stabilizing, with a year-on-year increase expected in 2025 [2][45]. - Major airlines like Air China and China Southern Airlines are projected to recover profitability as supply-demand gaps narrow [2][45]. Express Delivery Sector - The express delivery market is experiencing strong growth, particularly in Southeast Asia and China, with companies like SF Express and ZTO Express leading the way [3][55][59]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring pricing trends in the express delivery sector due to competitive dynamics [3][59]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable operations and potential for steady returns, including SF Express, ZTO Express, and major airlines [3][2][45].

Group 1: Report General Information - The research object is Yuegaosu A, belonging to the railway and highway industry, and the reception time is April 14, 2025 [17] - The participating research institution is Huaxi Securities Co., Ltd. [2] Group 2: Core Views - The opening of the Shenzhen - Zhongshan Passage changed the regional road network structure. In 2024, the toll revenue of the Guangzhu East section decreased year - on - year, and the impact is expected to continue in 2025, with the overall impact degree to be further tracked and evaluated [22] Group 3: Summary by Directory 01 Research Basic Situation - The research object is Yuegaosu A, belonging to the railway and highway industry. The reception time is 2025 - 04 - 14, and the listed company reception personnel are Yang Hanming and Liang Jirong from Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co., Ltd. [17] 02 Detailed Research Institutions - The reception object type is a securities company, and the specific institution is Huaxi Securities Co., Ltd., with the relevant person being You Daozhu [20] 03 Research Institution Proportion - No relevant content 04 Main Content Data - Regarding the company's existing equity - held expressway reconstruction and expansion projects: a section of the Beijing - Zhuhai Expressway Guangzhu section (from Zhongshan urban area to Zhuhai) was completed and opened to traffic in September 2024, and the remaining sections are planned to be completed in 2027; the Jiangzhong Expressway reconstruction and expansion project has been completed and opened to traffic, and is currently applying for a toll standard adjustment; the Yuezhao Expressway reconstruction and expansion project is being implemented as planned; the Huiyan Expressway reconstruction and expansion project is planned to be completed in 2025; the Guanghui Expressway reconstruction and expansion project has been approved by the provincial development and reform commission, passed by the company's board of directors, and still needs to be submitted to the general meeting of shareholders for deliberation, with construction planned to start in 2025 and an expected construction period of 5 years [23] - The company will learn from the construction experience of the north - south sections of the Fokai Expressway reconstruction and expansion project, formulate a traffic organization plan, and minimize the impact of reconstruction and expansion construction on traffic volume [23] - After the company's reconstruction and expansion projects are completed, it will apply to the government for a toll standard adjustment in accordance with the current policy and follow the approved toll standard [23]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure, but the consolidation with China Merchants Railway has led to significant revenue growth [4] - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of approximately 12.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.62%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was about 5.32 billion yuan, a decrease of 21.35% [6] - The company is focusing on its core business and has successfully completed the transition of the management of the Road King asset package, adding 276 kilometers of operational mileage [6] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: 9.73 billion yuan (2023), 12.71 billion yuan (2024), 12.90 billion yuan (2025E), 13.23 billion yuan (2026E), and 13.60 billion yuan (2027E) [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 6.77 billion yuan (2023), 5.32 billion yuan (2024), 5.74 billion yuan (2025E), 6.19 billion yuan (2026E), and 6.70 billion yuan (2027E) [5] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 10.40% (2023), 7.47% (2024), 7.65% (2025E), 7.84% (2026E), and 8.05% (2027E) [5] Market Performance - The company reported a gross margin of 34.09% in 2024, a decrease of 2.87 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to asset optimization and adverse weather conditions [6] - The company’s operating expenses increased due to the consolidation with China Merchants Railway, with a total expense ratio of 20.92% in 2024, up by 1.34 percentage points year-on-year [6] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively pursuing expansion strategies and has made progress on various upgrade and expansion projects, including the completion of internal project approvals for the Ningbo-Taizhou-Wenzhou Expressway southern section [6] - The company has also completed the acquisition of the remaining 40% equity in Hunan Yonglan Expressway and is advancing the preliminary engineering for several other projects [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the transportation industry, particularly focusing on the shipping sector and logistics recovery [2][3]. Core Insights - The report outlines a three-phase impact of the U.S. tariff policy on shipping, emphasizing initial pessimism followed by gradual recovery as trade negotiations progress [3][22]. - It highlights the importance of shipping asset pricing, which is determined by capacity utilization and upstream-downstream price differentials [3][22]. - The report suggests that the logistics sector, especially express delivery, is expected to see significant growth due to rising e-commerce demand and favorable policies [3][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The transportation index increased by 0.76%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.13 percentage points [4]. - The shipping sector showed mixed performance, with the coastal dry bulk freight index rising by 0.20% and the Shanghai export container freight index increasing by 4.96% [4]. 2. Shipping Sector Analysis - The report identifies three phases of tariff impact: initial negative pricing, followed by recovery as negotiations progress, and potential price increases due to supply chain disruptions [3][22]. - It emphasizes that the tariff impacts will compress profit margins and affect shipping valuations, particularly before the tariffs take effect [3][22]. 3. Oil and Freight Rates - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 410,000 barrels per day starting in May, which is higher than market expectations [3][25]. - VLCC rates decreased by 3% to $37,276 per day, while Suezmax rates fell by 6% to $49,895 per day [3][25]. - The report notes a significant drop in MR average rates by 14% to $20,442 per day due to demand slowdown [3][26]. 4. Express Delivery and Logistics - The report expresses optimism for direct logistics recovery, particularly for leading companies like JD Logistics and SF Express, as demand rebounds [3][22]. - It highlights the expected rapid growth in e-commerce express delivery demand in 2025, driven by clear policy support for optimizing logistics costs [3][22]. 5. Railway and Highway Transport - Railway freight volume and highway truck traffic continue to rise, indicating a sustained spring peak in logistics activity [3][22]. - The report mentions a government directive aimed at optimizing railway pricing policies, which could enhance the efficiency of freight transport [3][22]. 6. High Dividend Stocks - The report lists high dividend yield stocks in the transportation sector, including Bohai Ferry with a TTM yield of 10.19% and Daqin Railway with a yield of 6.95% [3][18]. - It suggests that these stocks may provide stable returns amid market fluctuations [3][18].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to 中远海能 and 吉祥航空, and an "Outperform" rating to 南方航空, 中国东航, and 中国国航 [5][6]. Core Insights - The shipping sector is expected to see improved fundamentals in the medium to long term, driven by a shift in oil production policies from reduction to gradual increase, with VLCC demand projected to rise by 4.4% in 2025 and 6.9% in 2026 [3]. - The small container ship market is on an upward trend, supported by economic growth in Southeast Asia and changes in shipping alliances, leading to increased demand [3]. - The air travel market is experiencing a volume increase but a price decrease, with domestic passenger traffic expected to grow by 3% year-on-year in Q1 2025, while international markets are recovering steadily [3]. - The express delivery sector is seeing a recovery in direct logistics, with a year-on-year growth of 22.4% in the express industry for January-February 2025, although price competition remains intense [3]. - The road and rail sectors are expected to maintain growth in traffic volume, with a projected year-on-year increase in highway traffic and railway passenger volume [3]. Summary by Sections Shipping - The long-term supply logic remains stable, with a gradual increase in VLCC demand and a limited supply of new ships expected to be delivered [3]. - The average age of the global fleet is increasing, indicating a strong demand for replacing old ships [3]. Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding cycle is on an upward trend, with a continued supply-demand imbalance favoring shipbuilders [3]. - Ship prices are expected to rise again after absorbing the negative impacts of new capacity [3]. Aviation - The domestic air travel market is projected to see a volume increase but a price decrease due to high base effects from the previous year [3]. - International markets are recovering, with a 20% year-on-year increase in passenger traffic and flight numbers [3]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is expected to continue its recovery, with significant growth in logistics demand anticipated [3]. - Price competition remains fierce, impacting profitability for leading companies [3]. Road and Rail - Traffic volume on highways and railways is expected to grow, with specific companies projected to perform well [3].

金三江：2024年净利润同比增长52.54% 拟10派1.7元 3月31日，金三江（301059）公布2024年年度报告，公司2024年实现营业收入3.86亿元，同比增长 30.96%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润为5337.9万元，同比增长52.54%；基本每股收益为0.23元/股。公 司拟向全体股东每10股派发现金红利1.70元（含税）。 资料显示，金三江成立于2003年12月，主营业务是沉淀法二氧化硅的研发、生产和销售。 所属行业：基础化工–化学制品–其他化学制品 中旗股份：2024年净利润同比下降93.88% 拟10派0.5元 3月31日，中旗股份（300575）公布2024年年度报告，公司2024年实现营业收入24.22亿元，同比增长 1.35%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润为1172.1万元，同比下降93.88%；基本每股收益为0.03元/股。公 司拟向全体股东每10股派发现金红利0.5元（含税）。 资料显示，中旗股份成立于2003年8月，主营业务是农药产品的研发、生产和销售。 所属行业：基础化工–农化制品–农药 西子洁能：2024年净利润同比增长705.74% 拟10派2元 3月31日，西子洁能（0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the transportation industry, particularly highlighting the potential benefits from the upcoming U.S. shipping legislation hearing on March 24, 2025 [4][23]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of the U.S. shipping legislation and its potential impact on the shipping and logistics sectors, particularly for companies like 德翔海运 (Dexion Shipping) [4][23]. - The report identifies AI-driven logistics as a key factor in reducing logistics costs, with companies like 圆通速递 (YTO Express) expected to benefit significantly from digital transformation initiatives [6][23]. - The report notes a mixed performance across sub-sectors, with the express delivery sector showing the highest growth, while the airline sector faced declines [7][14]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The transportation index increased by 1.07%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.52 percentage points [7]. - The express delivery sector saw a significant increase of 3.62%, while the airline transportation sector experienced a decline of 1.81% [7][14]. Shipping and Logistics - The report highlights the volatility in shipping rates, with the VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) rates rising by 3% to $35,202 per day, while the Suezmax rates increased by 24% to $51,524 per day [25][24]. - The SCFI (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) recorded a drop of 8.1%, indicating pressure on container shipping rates [27][39]. Air Transportation - The report suggests that external factors such as oil prices and domestic demand recovery are likely to enhance the airline sector's performance, with a focus on the potential for increased passenger volumes [44]. High Dividend Stocks - The report lists high dividend yield stocks in the transportation sector, including 渤海轮渡 (Bohai Ferry) with a yield of 12.07% and 大秦铁路 (Daqin Railway) with a yield of 7.07% [19][21]. Recommendations - The report recommends关注 (focus on) companies like 中国动力 (China Power), 中国船舶 (China Shipbuilding), and 招商轮船 (China Merchants Energy) for potential investment opportunities [24][23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the transportation industry, particularly highlighting the potential benefits from the upcoming U.S. shipping legislation hearing on March 24, 2025 [4][23]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of the U.S. shipping legislation and its potential impact on the shipping and logistics sectors, particularly for companies like 德翔海运 (Dexion Shipping) [4][23]. - The report identifies AI-driven logistics as a key factor in reducing logistics costs, with companies like 圆通速递 (YTO Express) expected to benefit significantly from digital transformation initiatives [5][23]. - The report notes a mixed performance across sub-sectors, with the express delivery sector showing the highest growth, while the airline sector faced declines [7][14]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The transportation index increased by 1.07%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.52 percentage points [7]. - The express delivery sector saw a significant increase of 3.62%, while the airline transportation sector experienced a decline of 1.81% [7][14]. Shipping and Logistics - The report highlights the volatility in shipping rates, with the VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) rates rising by 3% to $35,202 per day, while Suezmax rates increased by 24% to $51,524 per day [25][24]. - The SCFI (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) recorded a drop of 8.1%, indicating pressure on container shipping rates [27][39]. Air Transportation - The report suggests that external factors such as oil prices and domestic demand recovery are likely to enhance the airline sector's performance, with a focus on the potential for increased passenger volumes [44]. High Dividend Stocks - The report lists high dividend yield stocks in the transportation sector, including 渤海轮渡 (Bohai Ferry) with a yield of 12.07% and 大秦铁路 (Daqin Railway) with a yield of 7.07% [19][21]. Recommendations - The report recommends关注 (focus on) companies like 中国动力 (China Power), 中国船舶 (China Shipbuilding), and 招商轮船 (China Merchants Energy) for potential investment opportunities [24][19].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or the specific company [1]. Core Insights - The company, Guangdong Provincial Highway Development Co., Ltd., discussed its operational performance for 2024, including the progress of major road expansion projects and significant financial data changes year-on-year [18]. - The opening of the Shenzhen-Zhongshan Bridge has altered the regional road network structure, leading to a decrease in toll revenue for the Guangzhu East section in 2024, with expectations of continued impact into 2025 [18]. - The company has several ongoing and planned highway expansion projects, including the completion of the Jiangzhong Expressway and the ongoing construction of the Huizhan Expressway, expected to finish in 2025 [18][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Basic Research Information - The research focused on Guangdong Provincial Highway Development Co., Ltd. within the railway and highway industry, conducted on March 13, 2025 [13]. 2. Detailed Research Institutions - Participating institutions included China Life Pension Insurance Co., Ltd. and Xinda Securities Co., Ltd. [14]. 3. Research Institution Proportions - The report does not provide specific data on the proportions of research institutions involved [16]. 4. Main Content Information - The company’s financing cost ranges from 2.20% to 2.80% as of December 31, 2024 [19]. - The company has a dividend policy that stipulates a cash distribution of at least 70% of the net profit attributable to the parent company for the years 2024 to 2026, contingent on positive distributable profits and sufficient cash flow [20].