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制造业PMI低于荣枯线 国常会部署贴息政策促消费
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-07-31 13:51
Economic Overview - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need to enhance macroeconomic policy effectiveness and stimulate internal economic growth [1] - The State Council reiterated the implementation of personal consumption loan interest subsidy policies to better stimulate consumption potential [1][7] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July was reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, marking the fourth consecutive month below the growth threshold [1][4] - The new orders index for manufacturing fell to 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, indicating a contraction in market demand [6] - Despite the decline in demand, the production index remained at 50.5%, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing activities [6] Price Trends - The manufacturing raw material purchase price index rose to 51.5%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points, indicating a recovery in raw material prices [6] - The ex-factory price index increased to 48.3%, up 2.1 percentage points, marking the second-highest point this year [6] Business Confidence - The production and business activity expectation index rose to 52.6%, reflecting increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding market development [8] - Large enterprises maintained a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, indicating a mixed outlook across different enterprise sizes [8] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was reported at 50.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points, but still within the expansion range [10] - The construction business activity index fell to 50.6%, influenced by seasonal weather conditions, while infrastructure-related activities continued to show robust growth [10] Consumer Behavior - The summer consumption effect began to show, with retail and postal service indices rising above 50%, indicating strong consumer spending intentions [11] - However, the accommodation and catering sectors remained below 50%, suggesting that summer consumption has not yet significantly impacted these areas [11][12] Policy Implications - The Central Political Bureau's meeting highlighted the importance of releasing internal demand potential and implementing consumption-boosting actions [12] - The focus on service consumption is expected to play a crucial role in meeting public needs and driving consumption industry upgrades [12]
制造业PMI低于荣枯线,国常会部署贴息政策促消费
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-07-31 13:22
Economic Policy and Measures - The State Council emphasizes the need to anchor annual development goals and enhance the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies, focusing on stimulating internal economic momentum [1][4] - Implementation of personal consumption loan interest subsidy policies and service industry loan interest subsidy policies aims to better stimulate consumption potential [1][7] Manufacturing Sector Performance - In July, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, remaining below the expansion threshold for four consecutive months [1][4] - The new orders index for manufacturing was 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, indicating a contraction in market demand [6] - Despite weak demand, manufacturing production activities expanded, with a production index of 50.5%, although it decreased by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [6][9] Price Trends - The manufacturing raw material purchase price index rose to 51.5%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points, indicating a recovery in raw material prices [6] - The ex-factory price index for manufactured goods was 48.3%, up 2.1 percentage points, marking the second-highest point this year [6] Business Confidence and Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index for July was 52.6%, reflecting an increase in confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding market development [8] - Large enterprises maintained a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, indicating a mixed outlook across different enterprise sizes [8] Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points, but still within the expansion range [10] - The construction industry index was 50.6%, indicating a slowdown in construction activities due to seasonal weather impacts [10] Consumer Behavior and Seasonal Trends - Summer consumption effects began to show, with retail and postal service indices rising above 50%, indicating strong consumer spending intentions [11] - However, the accommodation and catering sectors remained below 50%, suggesting that summer spending was more focused on outdoor and entertainment activities rather than dining [13] Future Economic Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting highlighted the need to effectively release internal demand potential and implement actions to boost consumption [14] - The focus on service consumption is expected to play a crucial role in meeting public needs and driving consumption industry upgrades [14]
陶然居集团董事长严琦:民营经济促进法解决痛点 助力民企前行
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2025-07-31 08:08
对于陶然居集团而言,民营经济促进法的颁布带来了诸多实质性的改变。严琦表示,一是创新、投 融资等利好政策支持企业发展;二是更好地维护了企业合法权益;三是更好地规范企业发展,推动企业 建立现代企业制度,建设法治民企、廉洁民企。 在未来3-5年的战略规划中,陶然居集团将充分融入民营经济促进法的要求。严琦透露,集团将按 照该法关于投融资的要求,积极参与国家战略,重点参与成渝经济圈建设。同时,按照该法要求,更好 地开展创新,推动企业转型。 在"反内卷"方面,陶然居集团一直主张靠质量和诚信立企,避免恶性竞争。严琦认为,企业要靠质 量、标准和特色赢得市场,走差异化竞争路线。例如,陶然居集团与重庆罗森便利店有限公司合作建设 的陶然居数字科技5G鲜食工厂,坚持从"田间到餐桌",全程冷链物流,保证了产品的质量。在平衡员 工工作效率与福利方面,严琦强调,员工是企业最大的财富,要积极构建和谐劳动关系,让员工与企业 共享改革成果。前几年,餐饮业遭受冲击,陶然居集团采取轮岗制,让轮岗的员工去陶然居的餐饮学校 接受培训,既避免了裁员、稳定了员工,也提升了员工的技能水平,受到员工的欢迎。(中国经济网记 者鞠然) "民营经济促进法是在中国式现 ...
制造业PMI季节性回落至49.3%,下阶段走势如何
第一财经· 2025-07-31 06:06
Economic Overview - The manufacturing PMI for July is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.1%, also down by 0.4 percentage points, but still indicates expansion [1] - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points, remaining above the critical point, suggesting overall expansion in business activities [1] Manufacturing Sector Analysis - The new orders index for manufacturing is at 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, indicating a contraction in market demand [6] - The new export orders index is at 47.1%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points, reflecting weakened demand [6] - Despite the decline in demand, the production index is at 50.5%, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing activities for the third consecutive month [6] Price Trends - The raw materials purchase price index for manufacturing is at 51.5%, up 3.1 percentage points, indicating a recovery in raw material prices [7] - The ex-factory price index is at 48.3%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points, marking the second-highest point this year [7] - Price stability in the manufacturing sector is primarily driven by the basic raw materials industry, with significant increases in both purchase and ex-factory price indices [7] Business Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index is at 52.6%, up 0.6 percentage points, indicating increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises [8] - Large enterprises maintain a PMI of 50.3%, while medium and small enterprises show PMIs of 49.5% and 46.4%, respectively, indicating varying levels of economic health across different enterprise sizes [8] Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points, but still indicates expansion [13] - The construction sector's business activity index is at 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points, reflecting a slowdown due to seasonal weather impacts [13] - Summer consumption shows positive trends, with retail and postal service indices rising above 50%, indicating strong consumer spending [15] Future Outlook - The construction sector is expected to rebound post-rainy season, with infrastructure activities projected to grow steadily [14] - Continued implementation of macroeconomic policies aimed at boosting demand is anticipated to support economic recovery in the second half of the year [9][16]
反内卷改善企业预期!7月份PMI数据出炉
券商中国· 2025-07-31 05:59
Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for July is 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, primarily influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and adverse weather conditions [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Recovery and Manufacturing Performance - The foundation for economic recovery remains solid, with the equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing PMIs continuing to expand, indicating ongoing structural optimization [2][3]. - Large enterprises are maintaining stable expansion, acting as a "ballast" for the economy [2][3]. - The rebound in the major raw material purchasing price index, which rose above the critical point for the first time since March, reflects improved market conditions in certain industries [4]. Group 2: Impact of Anti-Competition Measures - The anti-competition measures have positively influenced corporate expectations, as indicated by rising indices for purchasing prices, output prices, employment, supplier delivery times, and production activity expectations [4][5]. - The purchasing price index for major raw materials increased to 51.5%, while the output price index rose to 48.3%, showing significant recovery in specific sectors like petroleum and black metal processing [4]. Group 3: Consumer Activity and Seasonal Trends - The non-manufacturing business activity index for July is 50.1%, reflecting a slight decline but showing initial signs of summer consumption boosting economic activity [6][7]. - Retail activity is on the rise, with the retail business activity index surpassing the critical point, and new order indices showing significant increases [7]. - Travel and leisure activities are also gaining momentum, with indices for railway and air transport exceeding 60%, indicating strong consumer willingness to travel [7][8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The summer consumption boost is expected to continue into August, supported by ongoing macroeconomic policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [8].
反内卷改善企业预期!短期因素造成制造业PMI环比微降
证券时报· 2025-07-31 05:47
Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for July is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, primarily influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and adverse weather conditions [1][5][6]. Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Analysis - The manufacturing PMI reflects a contraction, but the underlying economic recovery remains solid, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing PMIs continuing to expand [3][7]. - Large enterprises are maintaining stable expansion, acting as a stabilizing force in the economy [3][7]. - The rebound in the major raw material purchasing price index indicates a positive shift in business expectations due to anti-involution measures [10][12]. Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.1%, showing a slight decline but remaining above the critical point, indicating ongoing activity in the sector [2][14]. - Summer consumption is beginning to show positive effects, with significant increases in retail and travel activities, although the accommodation and catering sectors remain below the critical point [14][15][16]. Group 3: Future Economic Outlook - The implementation of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand is expected to support stable economic growth and quality improvement in the second half of the year [8][17]. - Analysts predict that the positive impact of summer consumption will continue into August, contributing to a gradual increase in investment and consumption activities [16][17].
反内卷改善企业预期!短期因素造成制造业PMI环比微降
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-07-31 05:45
Core Points - The manufacturing PMI for July is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, primarily influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and adverse weather conditions [1][3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index are at 50.1% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing a decline but remaining above the critical point [1][3] - Economic recovery fundamentals remain solid, with the equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing PMIs continuing to expand, indicating ongoing structural optimization [1][3] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI's decline is attributed to traditional production off-seasons and extreme weather events, leading to a weaker demand side [2][3] - Despite the overall PMI decline, production activities in manufacturing are still expanding, particularly in the equipment and high-tech sectors, which are crucial for economic growth [3][5] Price Indices - Among the 13 sub-indices of the manufacturing PMI, the purchasing price index and the ex-factory price index have risen, indicating improved market conditions in certain sectors [5] - The main raw material purchasing price index has risen to 51.5%, marking the first increase above the critical point since March, suggesting a potential recovery in material costs [5] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.1%, reflecting a slight decline, but summer consumption is beginning to show positive effects in retail, travel, and entertainment sectors [7][9] - Retail activity is increasing, with the retail business activity index rising above the critical point, indicating strong consumer purchasing intentions [8] Future Outlook - The implementation of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, such as "two new" and "two heavy" initiatives, is expected to support stable economic expansion and quality improvement in the second half of the year [1][9] - The positive impact of summer consumption is anticipated to continue into August, contributing to economic recovery [9]
制造业PMI季节性回落至49.3%,下阶段走势如何
Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun· 2025-07-31 03:29
Economic Overview - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.1%, also down by 0.4 percentage points, reflecting a slowdown in growth [1] - The composite PMI output index is at 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points, but still above the critical point, suggesting overall expansion in business activities [1] Manufacturing Sector Insights - The new orders index for manufacturing is at 49.4%, a decline of 0.8 percentage points, indicating a tightening in market demand [3] - The new export orders index is reported at 47.1%, down 0.6 percentage points, further highlighting weak demand [3] - Despite the demand weakness, the production index remains at 50.5%, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing activities for the third consecutive month [3] - The raw material purchase price index has risen to 51.5%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points, suggesting a recovery in raw material prices [3] Price Trends - The ex-factory price index for manufactured goods is at 48.3%, up 2.1 percentage points, marking the second-highest point this year [3] - The basic raw materials sector is driving the stabilization and recovery of market prices, with the purchase price index rising over 7 percentage points to 52% [4] Business Confidence and Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index is at 52.6%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points, indicating improved confidence among manufacturing enterprises [4] - Large enterprises maintain a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises show improvement with a PMI of 49.5%, and small enterprises have a PMI of 46.4%, indicating varying levels of economic health across different company sizes [4] Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.1%, reflecting a slowdown but still within the expansion range [8] - The construction sector's business activity index is at 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points, indicating a slowdown due to seasonal weather impacts [8] - Consumer spending during the summer shows positive trends, with retail and postal service indices rising above 50% and 60%, respectively, indicating strong consumer purchasing intentions [9] Future Outlook - The construction sector is expected to rebound post-rainy season, with infrastructure activities projected to continue steady growth [8][9] - The overall economic foundation remains solid, with expectations for continued stable expansion and quality improvement in the second half of the year, supported by ongoing macroeconomic policies [5]
上半年深圳GDP增5.1% 进出口降幅收窄
Nan Fang Du Shi Bao· 2025-07-30 23:15
Economic Performance - Shenzhen's GDP for the first half of 2025 reached 18322.26 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1% [1] - The primary industry added value was 10.33 billion yuan, growing by 2.8%; the secondary industry added value was 6505.56 billion yuan, increasing by 3.3%; and the tertiary industry added value was 11806.37 billion yuan, rising by 6.1% [1] Industrial and Service Sector Growth - The city's industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 4.3%, with manufacturing increasing by 4.2% and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply growing by 11.8% [2] - High-tech product output saw significant growth, with civil drones, industrial robots, and 3D printing equipment increasing by 59.0%, 38.0%, and 35.8% respectively [2] - The service sector's added value was 11806.37 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.1%, driven by finance (10.9%), transportation and warehousing (9.0%), and information technology services (8.1%) [2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Shenzhen decreased by 10.9%, with real estate development down by 15.1% but infrastructure investment up by 7.7% and industrial technology renovation investment soaring by 47.1% [3] - Investment in information transmission, software, and IT services grew by 47.7%, while transportation and warehousing investment rose by 32.5% [3] Consumer Market Insights - The total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 4948.68 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5% [3] - Online retail sales through the internet increased by 19.4%, indicating a strong trend towards e-commerce [3] Trade and Financial Sector - The total import and export volume for the first half of the year was 21675.45 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.1%, with exports down by 7.0% and imports up by 9.5% [4] - By the end of June, the balance of deposits in financial institutions reached 141600.14 billion yuan, growing by 5.7% [4] Cross-Border E-commerce Development - The Google Cross-Border E-commerce Acceleration Center in Shenzhen officially commenced operations, enhancing the cross-border e-commerce ecosystem in the region [6] - The center aims to provide comprehensive services for cross-border e-commerce companies, supporting their global business expansion [6]
陈茂波:香港营商环境优势凸显 金融市场亮眼、创科产业快速发展
智通财经网· 2025-07-30 14:06
Economic Outlook - The Hong Kong economy is expected to maintain growth in the second half of the year, following a 3.1% growth in Q1 and a positive outlook for Q2 [7][18] - The government is actively supporting industries undergoing transformation, particularly in funding and digital upgrades for local retail and dining sectors [8][20] Investment and Business Environment - International investor confidence in Hong Kong is rising, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 27% this year after an 18% rise last year [4] - The number of companies registered in Hong Kong from overseas has increased by 10% year-on-year, with 84 key enterprises expected to invest approximately HKD 500 billion, creating 20,000 jobs [4][5] Real Estate and Office Space - The government is not selling commercial land to allow the market to absorb existing office space, while also encouraging private entities to purchase office properties [2][13] - There has been significant demand for office space from multinational financial institutions, particularly in wealth and asset management sectors [2][14] Retail and Consumer Trends - Retail sales have shown signs of recovery, with a 2.4% increase reported in May after 14 months of decline [8] - The number of visitors to Hong Kong has increased significantly, with a double-digit growth rate in international tourists during the first half of the year [6][9] Talent Acquisition - Approximately 500,000 applications have been received for talent importation programs, with 330,000 approved and around 220,000 individuals having arrived in Hong Kong [5][20] Financial Sector Stability - Hong Kong's banking sector remains robust, with a capital adequacy ratio of approximately 21%, significantly above the global standard of 8% [15][20] - The overall banking system is characterized by strong liquidity and prudent provisioning for potential bad debts [15]