8月25日，市九届人大常委会召开第二十五次会议，市人大常委会党组书记、主任李健主持会议。 会议听取和审议了市政府关于提请审议《镇江市南朝陵墓石刻保护条例（草案）》的议案，认为 《条例（草案）》具体内容和条款设置立足镇江实际、总体比较成熟，建议进一步修改完善。 会议表决通过了《镇江市城乡网格化社会治理条例》，同意进一步修改完善后报请省人大常委会批 准颁布实施；表决通过了《镇江市五级人大代表统一接待选民办法》。 会议审议了市政府关于2025年上半年国民经济和社会发展计划执行情况的书面报告。就做好下半年 工作，会议要求，紧抓项目招引建设、推动产业转型升级，加快培育新质生产力；全面对接重大战略、 用好用足宏观政策，充分释放内需潜力；扎实推进民生改善、防范化解风险隐患，确保社会大局和谐稳 定。 会议传达了习近平总书记近期重要讲话和中央重要会议精神，要求深刻领会习近平总书记重要讲话 精神，切实把思想和行动统一到党中央决策部署上来，主动服务中心大局，充分发挥立法保障、监督推 动和代表聚力作用，助力完成全年经济社会发展目标任务、实现"十四五"圆满收官。 会议听取和审议了市监委关于全市监察机关整治群众身边不正之风和腐败问题工作 ...

国家统计局数据显示，今年1至7月份，民间项目投资（扣除房地产开发民间投资）增长3.9%，展现出 较强韧性。分行业看，住宿和餐饮业民间投资增长19.6%，基础设施民间投资增长8.8%，文化、体育和 娱乐业民间投资增长8.1%，制造业民间投资增长5.0%，投资结构分化明显。 接下来，还需进一步破除市场壁垒、优化营商环境，以全国统一大市场建设降低制度成本，推动建立高 效良性的民间投资工作机制，为民营企业在政策上解惑、环境上解压、发展上解忧。多措并举激发民间 投资活力，才能让民间资本愿投、敢投、会投，从而更好赋能经济高质量发展。（中国经济网评论员 邓浩） 目前，今年"两重"建设项目清单8000亿元已全部下达完毕，中央预算内投资7350亿元已基本下达完毕。 重点项目建设的有序推进，为民间投资平稳增长起到了支撑作用。同时还要看到，作为我国消费升级的 一个主要发展方向，服务消费是未来消费需求增长最主要的动力来源。消费和投资，是内在关联且相互 促进的整体。培育服务消费新的增长点，离不开对相关产业和消费场景的投资。这样的发展趋势也体现 在相关领域民间投资的增长上。 日前召开的中央政治局会议强调，要有效释放内需潜力。会议提出，高 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint suggests that while the economy is slowing down, it is not in a recession, providing opportunities for patient investors [4] - The S&P 500 is expected to reach 6500 points by 2026, and high-quality bonds will become more attractive due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4] - The market may experience fluctuations due to tariffs and inflation, but overall asset performance remains lively [4] Group 2 - Emerging markets, particularly China, are expected to benefit from stable RMB expectations, technological innovation, and domestic demand, creating new opportunities for capital inflow [5] - Global market trends vary, with Europe and Japan showing moderate gains, while emerging markets experience short-term volatility; however, India and Taiwan are performing well, especially in AI-related industries [5] - Investment strategies should focus on "core" assets such as U.S. Treasuries, investment-grade bonds, and leading stocks, while caution is advised for high-yield bonds and commodities due to potential oversupply risks [5]

Economic Performance Overview - In July, China's economic growth rate slowed due to extreme weather conditions, but it remained above the 5% target level, with a focus on utilizing existing policies while maintaining proactive measures [1][3] - The service sector outperformed the industrial sector in July, with the service production index decreasing by 0.2 percentage points to 5.8%, while industrial added value fell by 1.1 percentage points to 5.7% [1][3] Demand and Consumption - Exports in July increased by 7.2% year-on-year in USD terms, accelerating by 1.3 percentage points compared to June, driven by a "rush to re-export" effect before the expiration of "reciprocal tariffs" [1][2] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7% year-on-year in July, a decline of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, with dining revenue rebounding slightly while commodity retail growth slowed [2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment from January to July grew by 1.6% year-on-year, a slowdown of 1.2 percentage points compared to the first half of the year, with infrastructure investment growing by 3.2% [2] - Real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year-on-year from January to July, with the decline expanding by 0.8 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [2] Policy and Future Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need for sustained macroeconomic policy efforts, focusing on expanding domestic demand and improving living standards [3][4] - Key initiatives include promoting service consumption, enhancing personal consumption loan policies, and stimulating private investment through infrastructure projects [3][5] - The meeting also highlighted the importance of deepening reforms and managing risks in key areas, particularly in local government debt and real estate markets [4][5]

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[2] - The construction PMI was 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points from June[2] - The services PMI slightly decreased to 50.0%, a drop of 0.1 percentage points[2] Group 2: Price Index Changes - The major raw material purchase price index rose to 51.5%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points from last month[2] - The factory price index increased to 48.3%, up by 2.1 percentage points[2] - The non-manufacturing input price index entered the expansion zone, indicating a potential price recovery[2] Group 3: Demand and Supply Indicators - The manufacturing new orders index fell to 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from June[2] - The non-manufacturing new orders index decreased to 45.7%, a decline of 0.9 percentage points[2] - The manufacturing production index was 50.5%, down 0.5 percentage points, while the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points[2] Group 4: Employment and Expectations - The manufacturing employment index was 48.0%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points[2] - The service industry employment index remained stable at 46.4%[2] - The manufacturing business activity expectation index rose to 52.6%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points[2]

策略研究 定调偏积极，市场有望在震荡整固中夯实上行 基础 ——7 月中央政治局会议点评 | | | | | | 分析师：费小平（SAC | 执业证书编号：S0340518010002） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 | 年 | 7 | 月 | 日 31 | 电话：0769-22111089 | 邮箱：fxp@dgzq.com.cn | | | | | | | 分析师：尹炜祺（SAC | 执业证书编号：S0340522120001） | | | | | | | 电话：0769-22118627 | 邮箱：yinweiqi@dgzq.com.cn | 事件： 中共中央政治局 7 月 30 日召开会议，决定今年 10 月在北京召开中国共产党第二十届中央委员会 第四次全体会议，主要议程是，中共中央政治局向中央委员会报告工作，研究关于制定国民经济和社 会发展第十五个五年规划的建议。会议分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。 点评： ◼ 1、2025年上半年经济增速达5.3%，后续宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力 2025年上半年经济增速达5.3 ...

期 货 研 究 2025 年 07 月 31 日 铝：小幅震荡 氧化铝：价格走弱 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20625 | 20 | -165 | 260 | 820 | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20615 | ー | l | l | ー | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2608 | 2 | -31 | 1 ୧ | 239 | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 125168 | 5183 | -19441 | -25888 | -97960 | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 261363 | -11344 | -66119 | 7766 | 131691 | | 电解铝 | LME铝3M成 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic planning for the next five years and the economic measures for the second half of the year, emphasizing the need for effective implementation of existing policies and the potential introduction of new policies to stimulate economic growth [1][4][5]. Economic Policy Direction - The Central Political Bureau meeting highlighted the need for macroeconomic policies to continue to exert force and to be timely and effective, with a focus on "implementation" and "fully releasing policy effects" [1][5]. - Fiscal policy will prioritize accelerating government bond issuance and improving fund utilization efficiency, while monetary policy aims to lower overall financing costs and utilize structural monetary policy tools effectively [1][6]. Consumer Demand and Investment - The meeting emphasized the importance of effectively releasing domestic demand potential, implementing actions to boost consumption, and fostering new growth points in service consumption [1][10]. - The contribution of final consumption to GDP reached 52.3% in the second quarter, indicating a strong reliance on subsidies for consumption growth, particularly in the "old-for-new" replacement category [11]. Key Focus Areas for the Second Half - Three main tasks were outlined to effectively release domestic demand potential: 1. Implementing actions to boost consumption while fostering new growth points in service consumption [10][11]. 2. Expanding consumption demand through improvements in living standards, particularly for low- and middle-income families [12]. 3. Promoting high-quality infrastructure construction to stimulate private investment and effective investment [13]. Service Consumption Insights - Service consumption is identified as a critical area for boosting overall consumption, with a need for targeted measures to address challenges such as income stability and supply shortages [13][14]. - Specific recommendations include shifting subsidies from goods to services, optimizing labor rights and vacation policies, addressing educational issues for migrant workers' children, and enhancing public investment in service quality [15].

Core Viewpoint - The economic performance of the central provinces of Hunan, Hubei, and Jiangxi in the first half of the year shows significant growth, with a combined GDP of 72,528.71 billion yuan, an increase of 4,999.06 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, indicating a robust recovery and development potential in the region [1][2]. Economic Growth - Hubei's GDP reached 29,642.61 billion yuan, growing by 6.2%, surpassing the national average by 0.9 percentage points [1] - Hunan's GDP was 26,166.50 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.6%, while Jiangxi also grew by 5.6% to 16,719.6 billion yuan, both exceeding the national growth rate by 0.3 percentage points [1] Industrial Development - Hunan's high-tech industry investment increased by 6.3%, with high-tech manufacturing value-added growing by 13.7%, outpacing overall industrial growth by 5.5 percentage points [3] - Hubei's high-tech industry investment rose by 8.8%, with high-tech service investment surging by 24.6%, and high-tech manufacturing value-added increased by 14.4% [3] - Jiangxi's high-tech manufacturing value-added grew by 13.7%, driven by policies promoting equipment upgrades and automotive subsidies [4] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods in the three provinces reached 29,560.44 billion yuan, with Hubei at 13,073.93 billion yuan (up 6.9%), Hunan at 10,391.81 billion yuan (up 6.2%), and Jiangxi at 6,094.7 billion yuan (up 5.3%) [6] - Hubei's per capita living consumption expenditure was 13,991 yuan, a 2.4% increase, reflecting a shift towards higher quality living and increased spending on health, culture, and entertainment [6] Foreign Trade - The central region's foreign trade growth rate reached 11.1%, significantly higher than the national average of 2.5% [10] - Hubei's exports of computers, mobile phones, and integrated circuits saw substantial growth, with lithium-ion battery exports increasing by 108.7% [11] - The establishment of logistics networks, such as the Ezhou Huahu International Airport, has improved logistics efficiency and contributed to the region's export growth [11][12]

每日观点 今日或受关税预期变化影响，市场风险偏好受到提振，沪深三大指数反弹，两市成交放量至1.21万亿。 昨夜公布的美联储5月议息会议纪要显示，美国经济前景的不确定性进一步增加，联储决策者几乎全都 表达了对关税长期推升通胀的担忧，对于降息将采取谨慎态度，他们将等待有关财政和贸易政策的更多 明确信息，当前CME基于期货合约价格对于美联储利率的预测，9月降息概率不足5成。国内方面，经 济保持平稳修复态势，今年前四个月主要经济指标的同比增速超过去年四季度水平。当前中美贸易局势 阶段性缓和，在90天关税暂缓期内"抢出口"将继续，生产端偏强或将支撑起企业营收上升的空间。对于 A股而言，短期或将呈现区间震荡走势，中长期维度关注我国自主科技能力的提升，以及加速完善社会 保障并激发内需潜力的政策趋势。 消息面 当地时间5月28日，美国联邦法院阻止了美国总统特朗普在4月2日"解放日"宣布的关税政策生效，并裁 定特朗普越权，对向美国出口多于进口的国家征收全面关税。在联邦法院阻止加征关税之后，特朗普政 府提起上诉通知。 简评：联邦法院的裁决可能促使中美贸易关系出现新的变化。此前因"抢出口"透支需求的产业链企业或 迎来订单修复窗口， ...