点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 公司发布2024年年报，2024年实现营收48.38亿元，同比增长0.52%；实现归母净利润1.82亿元，同比减少 37.77%；扣非归母净利润1.78亿元，同比减少29.11%；拟向全体股东每10股派发现金红利0.6元（含 税）。公司2024Q4实现营收18.88亿元，同比增长2.88%，环比增长45.91%；实现归母净利润0.33亿元，同 比减少41.91%，环比增长65.80%。 "双海"布局持续推进 生产基地方面，2024年泰胜昌吉基地落成并投产，该基地为中高端塔筒产品而规划建设，以"荒戈沙"大直 径塔筒为主，兼顾中亚海外市场，设计产能为10万吨；此外，泰胜扬州基地产能持续爬坡，已取得金风科 技、Nordex、 ...

2025年4月23日，德力佳传动科技（江苏）股份有限公司（以下简称"德力佳"）发布了交易所问询函回 复公告。这家成立仅7年多的风电齿轮箱制造商，因与三一重能的深度绑定、异常关联交易及独立性缺 陷，引发监管与市场的双重质疑。 历史纽带：股权结构的双重控制 德力佳是一家主要从事高速重载精密齿轮传动产品研发、生产与销售的企业，下游应用领域目前主要为 风力发电机组，核心产品为风电主齿轮箱。 德力佳与三一重能的共生关系始于2017年公司创立。招股书披露，三一重能不仅是创始股东（初始持股 20%），更通过多重纽带深度介入德力佳运营。 资产注入疑云：2018年三一重能以1元对价转让北京三一增速机（账面净资产0.28万元），使德力佳获 得风电齿轮箱生产资质。资产评估报告显示，该交易标的含价值9368万元设备资产，合理性存疑。 股权结构的双重控制：截至招股书签署日，三一重能以28%持股稳居第二大股东，而实控人刘建国夫妇 通过多层架构控制41.98%股权。更值得关注的是治理结构：6名非独立董事中，4名具有三一或远景背 景；财务总监李常平更是三一重能前财务副总监，在IPO辅导前两周"空降"。这种"股东+高管"的双重身 份，使德力佳 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the wind power equipment industry is "Positive" (first-time rating) [2] Core Viewpoints - The offshore wind industry is expected to enter a period of intensive construction, with sufficient project reserves ready to commence [7] - The trend towards high voltage and direct current in submarine cables is evident, benefiting leading cable manufacturers [7] - European offshore wind is anticipated to develop on a large scale, with domestic manufacturers likely to accelerate their overseas expansion due to capacity shortages [7] - Domestic offshore wind projects are expected to have a high degree of certainty in performance release once operational [7] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The offshore wind sector has experienced a downturn for three consecutive years, with new installations dropping significantly from a peak of 16.9 GW in 2021 to 5.1 GW, 6.3 GW, and 4.0 GW in 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively [7] Project Developments - In Guangdong, several projects are moving into full construction, with 7 GW across 15 projects approved in 2024 [7] - Jiangsu has initiated three projects totaling 2.65 GW, with further projects expected to commence in 2025 [7] - Shanghai is progressing with preliminary work on a 4.3 GW offshore wind demonstration project [7] Market Trends - The adoption of higher voltage submarine cables is becoming crucial for cost reduction, with leading companies like Dongfang Cable, Zhongtian Technology, and Hengtong Optic-Electric securing significant contracts [7] - European offshore wind capacity is projected to exceed 10 GW by 2028 and 20 GW by 2030, creating opportunities for domestic manufacturers to meet overseas demand [7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on Dongfang Cable, with additional attention on Zhongtian Technology, Daikin Heavy Industries, Haili Wind Power, Hengtong Optic-Electric, and Changlan Technology [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to exceed performance expectations due to the resonance of domestic beta and alpha, as well as growth opportunities in overseas and non-wind power sectors [1] Market Expectations - The company's main business has limited market space and a low industry ceiling, with a relatively high market share in the domestic wind power safety operation equipment sector, but potential decline in domestic wind power business due to the trend of larger wind turbines [2] - There is significant uncertainty regarding the company's success in expanding into other application fields [2] - Concerns exist regarding the company's exposure to the U.S. market and the potential negative impact of increased tariffs on performance [2] Performance Drivers - The domestic wind power market is experiencing high demand, with projected new installations of approximately 105-115 GW by 2025, leading to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11% from 2024 to 2026 [3] - Product optimization and solution iterations are expected to enhance the value of individual wind turbine configurations, with new products like high-load elevators and dual-machine tower climbing solutions contributing to this increase [3] - The wind power operation and maintenance market presents significant growth potential for the company's long-term performance [3] Overseas Market Expansion - There is substantial demand for retrofitting in the North American and European markets, providing opportunities for growth in these regions [3] - The company has considerable room for improvement in market share in overseas markets, which could lead to incremental performance gains [3] Multi-Sector Expansion - The company is diversifying its product offerings into various sectors such as industrial and construction, emergency rescue, and power grids, aiming to become a platform enterprise [4] - New products like material conveyors and climbing machines are expected to become key products, with material conveyors aiding in reducing labor costs in overseas photovoltaic construction [4] - The climbing machine is anticipated to be integrated into existing tower cranes, enhancing safety and efficiency [4] U.S. Market Strategy - The company has established a wholly-owned subsidiary in the U.S., allowing for rapid establishment of local production capacity if needed [4] - The company’s main product, the anti-climbing device, holds a near 100% market share in the U.S. due to its intellectual property, indicating strong pricing power [4] - The anti-climbing device is expected to help clients significantly reduce safety risks and labor costs, increasing demand in the context of rising inflation [4] Performance Metrics and Catalysts - Key performance indicators include global wind power new bidding volumes, year-on-year growth in installed capacity, changes in the company's overseas market share, and order growth for high-value products [5] - Catalysts for performance include lower-than-expected tariff increases in the U.S., high growth in domestic wind power new bidding volumes, and significant orders in emerging application fields [5] Unique Insights - The market perceives a limited ceiling for the wind power safety operation equipment industry, but the company is expected to counteract potential declines through product upgrades and solution optimizations [6][7] - The company is positioned to maintain rapid growth in the wind power sector and expand into new markets, supported by a strong alpha logic [8] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 402 million, 470 million, and 574 million from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 28%, 17%, and 22%, respectively, resulting in a CAGR of 20% [8]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·风电设备 泰胜风能（300129） 2024 年年报点评：24 年业绩承压，双海持续 推进 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 4813 | 4838 | 5866 | 6839 | 7864 | | 同比（%） | 53.93 | 0.52 | 21.25 | 16.59 | 14.99 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 292.41 | 181.96 | 325.66 | 430.53 | 512.92 | | 同比（%） | 6.37 | (37.77) | 78.97 | 32.20 | 19.13 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.31 | 0.19 | 0.35 | 0.46 | 0.55 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 20.69 | 33.24 | 18.57 | 14.05 | 11.79 | hujunying@dwzq.com.cn 股 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 4.848 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.52%, but a net profit attributable to shareholders of 182 million yuan, a decrease of 37.77% year-on-year, indicating challenges in profitability despite stable revenue growth in certain segments [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue from onshore wind power equipment, including concrete towers, reached 4.026 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.24%, while revenue from concrete tower products surged to 440 million yuan, up 821.59% [1]. - The offshore wind power and marine engineering equipment segment saw a revenue decline to 672 million yuan, down 37.77% year-on-year due to market adjustments [1]. - The overall gross margin for the company was 13.83%, a decrease of 4.25 percentage points year-on-year, with a net margin of 3.89%, down 2.22 percentage points [2]. Group 2: Order Backlog and Capacity Expansion - As of the end of 2024, the company had a total order backlog of 4.917 billion yuan, with 3.620 billion yuan from onshore wind power and 1.272 billion yuan from offshore wind power and marine engineering equipment, providing strong support for short-term performance [3]. - The company has established multiple production bases across strategic regions in China, with a maximum annual production capacity of 1.1 million tons for wind power steel towers and 640 sets for concrete towers expected to be achieved with the new Changji base coming online [3]. Group 3: Valuation and Future Outlook - The company adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2026 and added projections for 2027, expecting revenues of 6.161 billion yuan, 6.999 billion yuan, and 8.227 billion yuan, with net profits of 324 million yuan, 437 million yuan, and 571 million yuan respectively [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 19.2, 14.3, and 10.9 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating potential for growth as the company is well-positioned to benefit from the release of domestic and international wind power installation demand [4].

报告要点： 周度行情回顾 2025年04月13日至04月18日，上证综指上涨1.19%，深证成指下降0.54%，创业板指下降 0.64%。其中申万电力设备下降0.37%，较沪深300跑输0.96pcts。细分子行业来看，申万光 伏设备/风电设备/电池/电网设备分别涨-1.92%/2.31%/0.46%/-0.27%。 重点板块跟踪 科达利：2024年度，公司实现营业收入120.30亿元，较上年同期实现了14.44%的增长； 归属于上市公司股东的净利润为14.72亿元，较上年同期增长了22.55%。 投资建议 光伏：美国对等关税对光伏板块实质影响有限，核心逻辑在于三重缓冲机制：1）中美 光伏贸易壁垒已高度固化。自2012年美国对中国光伏产品征收"双反"税起，叠加后续 201/301关税形成的复合税率，中国直接出口美国的光伏产品占比已严重萎缩，此次关税升 级边际效应显著弱化；2）东南亚转口路径调整早有预期。越南、泰国等地光伏产能已面临 超高税率，远超当前对等关税水平，市场对东南亚产能退坡早有定价，部分产能转向中东、 拉美等新兴市场；3）本土化产能布局构筑护城河。中国头部企业通过"技术授权+属地化生 产"模式，在北 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight increase in revenue for 2024, but a significant decline in net profit, indicating short-term pressure on profitability due to intensified competition in the industry [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 4.838 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.52% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 182 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37.77% - The non-recurring net profit attributable to shareholders was 178 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 29.11% [1]. Profitability Analysis - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 13.83%, down 4.25 percentage points year-on-year - The net profit margin was 3.89%, down 2.22 percentage points year-on-year - The gross profit margin for onshore wind power equipment was 13.7%, down 5.2 percentage points year-on-year, while for offshore wind power and marine engineering equipment, it was 8.1%, down 1.8 percentage points year-on-year - The decline in profitability is attributed to increased competition in the industry, leading to lower order margins in certain regional markets [2]. Market Opportunities - According to GWEC, global wind power installations are expected to grow at an average annual rate of 9.4% from 2024 to 2028 - The company has seen steady growth in export business, with foreign sales revenue reaching 1.69 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 21.6% - The company's Yangzhou base, which focuses on exports, began operations in 2023 and has obtained supplier certification from several key overseas clients, enhancing future competitiveness [3]. Domestic Market Outlook - The domestic offshore wind power sector is expected to enter a period of accelerated construction in 2025, with an anticipated 12 GW of new installations, representing significant growth year-on-year - As a leading manufacturer of offshore wind power towers and piles, the company is well-positioned to benefit from this trend - In 2024, the company secured new orders for offshore wind power and marine engineering equipment totaling 1.23 billion yuan, with an execution and pending execution scale of 1.27 billion yuan by the end of the period [4]. Future Projections - The company is adjusting its capacity expansion plans and may increase exports and mixed tower layouts - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 5.943 billion yuan, 6.876 billion yuan, and 7.754 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 22.83%, 15.71%, and 12.77% respectively - Net profit projections for the same period are 360 million yuan, 480 million yuan, and 580 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 98.38%, 33.40%, and 18.94% respectively - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.39 yuan, 0.52 yuan, and 0.62 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 16, 12, and 10 times, maintaining a "buy" rating [5].

证券研究报告·公司深度研究·风电设备 大金重工（002487） 管桩出海厚积薄发，未来成长性确定 2025 年 04 月 20 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 4325 | 3780 | 5727 | 7522 | 8933 | | 同比（%） | (15.30) | (12.61) | 51.52 | 31.34 | 18.76 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 425.16 | 473.88 | 852.62 | 1,211.19 | 1,542.78 | | 同比（%） | (5.58) | 11.46 | 79.92 | 42.06 | 27.38 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.67 | 0.74 | 1.34 | 1.90 | 2.42 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 40.49 | 36.32 | 20.19 | 14.21 | 11.16 | [Table_T ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing overseas market for offshore wind power, with significant revenue growth expected in the coming years [7][8]. - The European offshore wind market is entering a phase of accelerated installation, driven by increased government support and energy security concerns [37][39]. - The company has established a strong competitive advantage through its extensive overseas market presence and high-quality customer base [8][14]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leading exporter of offshore wind foundation structures, having successfully transitioned from a domestic steel structure manufacturer to a global player in the offshore wind sector [14][18]. - The company has implemented a "Two Seas Strategy" to enhance its international footprint, with significant investments in production capacity and infrastructure [14][18]. Offshore Wind Industry - The European offshore wind market is projected to grow significantly, with cumulative installed capacity expected to reach over 150GW by 2030 [37][39]. - The report highlights that the energy crisis following the Russia-Ukraine conflict has prompted European countries to increase their offshore wind capacity plans [37][39]. Market Potential - The offshore wind tower market is expected to see substantial growth, with the European market projected to expand from 6.2 billion yuan in 2024 to 13.9 billion yuan by 2025, and further to 73.4 billion yuan by 2030 [8][14]. - The company is well-positioned to capture market share due to its cost advantages and efficient delivery capabilities compared to local European manufacturers [8][14]. Competitive Advantages - The company has developed a robust global logistics and delivery system, including a specialized fleet of transport vessels to enhance its operational efficiency [8][14]. - The company has a strong order backlog, with significant contracts from major European clients, ensuring revenue stability and growth [8][14]. Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 37.8 billion yuan in 2024 to 57.27 billion yuan in 2025, with a corresponding increase in net profit from 4.74 billion yuan to 8.53 billion yuan [1][8]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in earnings per share (EPS), projecting it to rise from 0.74 yuan in 2024 to 1.34 yuan in 2025 [1].