【稀土战火席卷全球！特朗普暴怒千字长文撕破脸，中国十年布局终显神威】 当特朗普在深夜推特狂敲"中国稀土断供破坏和平"的千字长文时，纽约证券交易所的电子屏正闪烁着刺眼红光——道琼斯指数500点暴跌如陨石坠地，标普 500蒸发上万亿市值。这场未开一枪的"稀土战争"，正以规则为刃，悄然改写全球科技供应链的权力版图。 前言：规则之战的致命悬念 "他们以为用稀土就能卡住美国脖子？"特朗普在文中怒吼。但现实是，当中国从十月初全面实施稀土出口许可制度时，美国企业才发现：自己引以为傲的稀 土矿藏不过是未经雕琢的璞玉——80%的稀土矿需运至中国完成精炼，而本土加工厂连高纯度钕铁硼磁体的生产线都凑不齐。这场较量没有硝烟，却比炮火 更致命——它撕开了美国"规则制定者"的伪装，暴露出技术霸权背后的脆弱链条。 正文：细节里的刀光剑影 结语：笔杆子里的权力密码 中国此次出手绝非临时起意。早在2021年《出口管制法》修订时，便埋下了"以规则反制规则"的伏笔。当美国以"国家安全"为由封锁华为、中芯国际时，中 国法律团队已悄然完成《反外国制裁法》的细则制定——不是"临时起意"，而是"十年磨一剑"的精准反制。 特朗普的暴怒恰恰暴露了美方的慌乱。 ...

Core Viewpoint - China has tightened its control over rare earth elements, including the regulation of rare earth technology, sending shockwaves through the global market and solidifying its dominance in the rare earth supply chain [1][3]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The latest measures from China's Ministry of Commerce include restrictions not only on the export of rare earth materials and products but also on rare earth technology, marking a significant shift in regulatory focus [1][3]. - Key middle and heavy rare earth minerals have been classified as "strategic resources," requiring export licenses, which directly impacts the United States due to its limited reserves and refining capabilities [3][5]. - The new regulations extend to third countries, requiring licenses for exports containing more than 0.1% of Chinese rare earths, effectively blocking routes for circumvention through third-party nations [3]. Group 2: Impact on Global Supply Chain - The focus on middle and heavy rare earths, particularly critical materials like holmium, erbium, and europium, is crucial for the U.S. military and high-tech industries, highlighting the strategic importance of these resources [1][3]. - China's leading position in rare earth refining technology enhances its control over the global supply chain, as other countries like Australia, India, and Brazil lack comparable refining capabilities [3][5]. Group 3: Strategic Interests - The series of measures aims to protect China's strategic interests while ensuring global supply stability, reflecting the dual-use nature of rare earths for both civilian and military applications [7]. - China emphasizes the need for rational cooperation from the U.S. to avoid mutual harm, suggesting that unilateral restrictions could have broader implications for global stability [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - A call for rational collaboration and joint innovation in the rare earth market is made, with hopes for a more stable and sustainable future [9].

Group 1 - Over 40 A-share listed companies have disclosed their Q3 earnings forecasts, with many reporting significant profit increases, including Guangdong Yinglian Packaging Co., Ltd. and Guangdong Mingzhu Group Co., Ltd., which expect net profit growth exceeding 10 times year-on-year [1] - Companies in the semiconductor and new energy sectors are showing strong performance, reflecting the acceleration of industrial transformation and upgrading in China, supported by market demand, policy backing, and technological breakthroughs [1][2] - Hangzhou Changchuan Technology Co., Ltd. forecasts a net profit of 827 million to 877 million yuan for the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year increase of 131.39% to 145.38%, driven by robust market demand and substantial sales revenue growth [1] Group 2 - The booming demand in the downstream market of new energy vehicles is positively impacting the performance of companies in the supply chain, such as Kunshan Guoli Electronics Technology Co., Ltd., which expects Q3 revenue of 340 million to 370 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59.16% to 73.21% [2] - The company anticipates a net profit of 19.2 million to 21 million yuan for Q3, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 64.72% to 80.17%, attributed to a significant increase in product orders and sales of key products [2] - The performance of companies in sectors like non-ferrous metals, packaging, and cross-border e-commerce is also noteworthy, with China Northern Rare Earth Group High-Tech Co., Ltd. projecting a net profit of 1.51 billion to 1.57 billion yuan for the first three quarters, marking a year-on-year increase of 272.54% to 287.34% [3] Group 3 - Guangdong Yinglian Packaging Co., Ltd. expects Q3 revenue of 1.63 billion to 1.65 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.49% to 10.83%, and a net profit of 34.5 million to 37.5 million yuan, reflecting a staggering year-on-year increase of 1531.13% to 1672.97% [3] - The company attributes its growth to the performance of its fast-moving consumer goods metal packaging segment, with enhanced production capabilities and product quality leading to increased market share [3] - Xiamen Jihong Technology Co., Ltd. forecasts a net profit of 209 million to 222 million yuan for the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year increase of 55.00% to 65.00%, driven by technological advancements in cross-border e-commerce and brand development [4]

Core Viewpoint - China has implemented new regulations on rare earth exports, prompting concerns from the US and Europe regarding their reliance on Chinese supplies [2][4]. Group 1: New Regulations - Starting December 1, products containing more than 0.1% of Chinese heavy rare earths or utilizing Chinese rare earth technology will require approval for export from China [2]. - Military-related exports will likely not receive approval under the new regulations [2]. Group 2: Global Impact - China controls 70% of global rare earth mining, 90% of processing, and 93% of magnet manufacturing, making it a critical player in the global supply chain for high-tech products [2][5]. - The new regulations have raised alarms in the US, particularly in the semiconductor industry, which relies on rare earth materials for high-precision manufacturing [7]. Group 3: International Reactions - Germany and the EU have expressed concerns and are discussing the implications of China's new regulations, acknowledging the need to reduce dependence on non-European sources [2]. - The EU has called for assurances of stable rare earth supplies from China [2]. Group 4: Strategic Context - The timing of the new regulations coincides with speculations about upcoming US-China talks, suggesting a strategic move by China in response to US tariffs and technology restrictions [4][9]. - Experts view this as a tactical maneuver by China to strengthen its position in negotiations, emphasizing the importance of rare earths for national security and international obligations [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in the A-share market amid renewed tensions between China and the U.S., highlighting the market's current state where most investors are fully invested, which may lead to potential risks if the consensus becomes too strong [2][4]. Market Analysis - The A-share market is facing both favorable and unfavorable factors compared to the previous tariff announcements in April. Favorable factors include a smaller decline in the FTSE China A50 futures and a growing consensus among investors to increase equity holdings. Unfavorable factors include higher current market levels, significant pressure to realize profits, and a larger scale of market financing [4]. - Recent market performance shows significant declines across major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.94% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 2.70% [5][23]. Sector Insights - The rare earth sector is highlighted for its strategic importance in AI, electric vehicles, and military technology, with China controlling about 80% of global rare earth production and monopolizing processing technologies. This gives China leverage in potential trade negotiations [6][7]. - The rare earth price has increased by 37% to 26,205 yuan per ton, marking the highest level since Q2 2023, indicating strong demand and potential profitability in this sector [7]. Investment Opportunities - Companies such as Li Min Co., Northern Rare Earth, and Youyan New Materials are expected to see significant profit increases, with some projecting over 100% year-on-year growth in net profits for Q3 [14][15]. - The semiconductor industry is also poised for growth, with New Kai Lai's upcoming product launch at the Bay Area Semiconductor Industry Expo showcasing advancements in high-speed oscilloscopes, which could benefit various tech sectors [12][13]. Fund Flow and Market Sentiment - The A-share market experienced a net outflow of 39.167 billion yuan, with significant selling in the electronics and power equipment sectors. Conversely, the non-ferrous metals sector saw a net inflow of 10.81 billion yuan, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [24][25]. - The upcoming "Double 11" e-commerce event is expected to simplify promotional strategies, potentially boosting consumer spending and benefiting retail sectors [16]. Industry Trends - The public utilities, commercial trade, and banking sectors are currently in a recession phase, while non-bank financials, steel, and non-ferrous metals are in an expansion phase, suggesting varying investment opportunities across sectors [28]. - The rare earth and agricultural sectors are identified as high-growth, low-valuation areas worth exploring for potential investments [29].

Group 1 - The overall situation between China and the US is expected to converge, with limited adverse effects on the market [3][15]. - China has taken proactive measures indicating a shift in power dynamics, enhancing national governance capabilities and boosting investor confidence in A-shares [4][16]. - The A-share market is predicted to experience short-term weakness but long-term strength, maintaining a sideways trend with limited downside in the short term [5][17]. Group 2 - Investment opportunities remain concentrated in the technology sector, particularly in computer/media and electronics/communication, with a focus on industrial software, foundational software, and AI applications [6][18]. - Strategic metals are favored, with gold expected to outperform rare earths and copper, driven by factors such as currency credit deterioration and demand from global infrastructure upgrades [7][19]. - The impact of tariff conflicts is deemed limited, as companies have already prepared for such risks [8][20].

Domestic Macro Policy - The central government is focusing on the formulation of the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing long-term strategic adjustments to macroeconomic policies rather than short-term gains[4] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced a new policy financial tool worth CNY 500 billion to support effective investment[5] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is shifting its monetary policy focus from "implementation" to "execution," aiming for a moderately loose monetary policy[8] Infrastructure and Industry - Policies are being introduced to stabilize growth in key industries such as steel, petrochemicals, and machinery, with an emphasis on capacity reduction[6] - The steel industry aims for an average annual growth of around 4% in value added over the next two years[7] Real Estate Policy - Cities like Guangzhou and Wuhan are implementing measures to optimize land use and stimulate demand, including interest subsidies for home loans[9] - The focus is on utilizing existing urban land effectively as China enters a "stock era" in urban development[9] Trade Relations - The U.S.-China trade conflict is escalating, with the U.S. imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese products starting November 1, 2025[12] - China has responded with export controls on rare earth technologies, affecting various critical sectors[11] Overseas Macro Policy - The U.S. government is facing a shutdown due to funding issues, impacting federal employees and public services[15] - The Federal Reserve's future interest rate decisions remain uncertain, with discussions around potential rate cuts to address labor market concerns[16] Market Trends - In the first week of October, major overseas stock indices, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, experienced declines of approximately 2.43% and 2.53%, respectively[18] - Gold prices continued to rise, with COMEX gold reaching USD 3,986.20 per ounce, reflecting a 2.68% increase[19] Risk Factors - There is a risk of divergence in domestic and international monetary policies, with domestic policy execution potentially falling short of expectations[20]

Core Viewpoint - The recent export control policies on rare earths by the Ministry of Commerce are expected to strengthen China's pricing power in the global rare earth market and catalyze sector performance [1][2]. Group 1: Export Control Policies - On October 9, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce announced four export control policies related to rare earth technologies, expanding the scope of control to global production, re-export, and technology transfer [1]. - The new policies create a comprehensive system of export controls, enhancing China's competitive advantage in the entire rare earth industry chain and reinforcing its global pricing power [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Recent prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxides have remained stable, with a range of 550,000 to 570,000, despite some reduction in orders reported by magnet manufacturers [2]. - Supply-side controls are extending from domestic to global materials and technologies, which is expected to strengthen supply rigidity and slow down the release of overseas supply [2]. - Demand for rare earths is anticipated to remain strong, driven by sectors such as electric vehicles, wind power, and air conditioning, with potential for continued price increases [2].

存储芯片板块的上涨，则是国际市场相关芯片的涨价消息刺激，而芯原股份刚刚发布的公告，更刺激了 相关概念股：预计第三季度营业收入12.84亿元，单季度收入创公司历史新高。 小雨这样的情况，对投资者来说，应该是比较常见：A股大涨的时候，反而有点不知所措。 笔者以为，如何认识当前的宏观面和微观面，对于理解A股的趋势和投资，会有一些帮助。 10月9日的A股走得比较好的板块有可控核聚变、存储芯片、固态电池、黄金概念、以及稀土永磁等， 这些板块的上涨，其实都与"利好"相关，也都与当今的国际政治经济形势密切相关。 可控核聚变是因为有消息说我国紧凑型聚变能实验装置（BEST）完成400吨杜瓦底座精准安装，误差控 制在2毫米内，标志主体工程进入新阶段，预计2027年建成并进行全球首次聚变发电演示。受此消息刺 激，国光电气、中洲特材、哈焊华通、合锻智能、永鼎股份等概念股纷纷涨停。 而稀土板块的强势，也与"好消息"密切相关。10月9日，商务部发布公告，公布对稀土相关技术、境外 相关稀土物项实施出口管制的决定。主要内容有两个：（一）稀土开采、冶炼分离、金属冶炼、磁材制 造、稀土二次资源回收利用相关技术及其载体；（管制编码：1E902. ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [3] Core Insights - The recent announcements from the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs have implemented stricter export controls on rare earth elements, particularly affecting the semiconductor industry and potentially impacting overseas chip manufacturing processes [1][10][16] - China dominates global rare earth supply, holding approximately 48.41% of the world's rare earth reserves and producing 68.54% of the total output [12][14] - The new export controls cover all 12 types of medium and heavy rare earth elements, marking a significant expansion in the scope of regulation [2][4] Summary by Sections Export Control Measures - The recent announcements (2025 No. 56 and 57) include export controls on rare earth equipment and raw materials, specifically targeting key technologies in rare earth mining, refining, and manufacturing [1][2] - The controls also extend to any downstream products that utilize Chinese rare earth technologies, requiring export licenses for a wide range of applications [5][10] Strategic Importance of Rare Earths - Rare earth elements are critical in various industries, including defense and semiconductor manufacturing, where they enhance material properties and performance [6][7] - The military applications of rare earths are significant, with advanced weapon systems heavily reliant on these materials [6] Semiconductor Industry Impact - The new regulations are the first to explicitly cover the semiconductor sector, which may lead to increased scrutiny and delays in overseas chip production [10][11] - Rare earths are essential for high-performance materials in semiconductor manufacturing, particularly as technology advances towards smaller transistor sizes [7][10] Renewable Energy Sector - Rare earths play a crucial role in the renewable energy sector, particularly in electric vehicle motors and wind turbine generators, with rare earth permanent magnets accounting for over 80% of the electric motor market share [11][12] Global Supply Chain Dynamics - The report highlights that while the U.S. is attempting to rebuild its rare earth supply chain, China's control over the entire rare earth industry chain remains unchallenged in the short term [15][16] - The overall completeness of the rare earth supply chain in the West is still lacking, with many projects facing delays and challenges [14][15]