关税冲击波即将来袭！ 随着贸易紧张局势缓和，美股三大指数上周集体反弹，纳指累计大涨超7%。本周即将公布的一系列经济数 据，将全面揭示美国关税政策的真实影响，市场担忧相关数据或将对美股市场造成扰动。其中，标普全球周四 将公布主要经济体PMI指数，将反映美国关税政策对全球经济前景产生的具体冲击。 与此同时，美联储的降息前景也备受投资者关注。根据日程安排，本周美联储官员们将陆续登场，或将释放最 新的货币政策信号。 摩根士丹利在最新发布的报告中表示，中美贸易紧张局势近期虽有缓和，但美国通胀预计将从5月开始明显上 升，全年通胀率可能升至3.0%～3.5%，这将迫使美联储在2025年保持利率不变。 重磅数据即将出炉 美国密歇根大学最新公布的调查显示，在特朗普政府激进贸易政策的冲击下，美国家庭对经济前景的悲观情绪 进一步恶化。 数据显示，5月美国消费者信心指数初值仅为50.8，为连续第5个月下滑。此前该指数的4月终值为52.2，事前经 济学家一度预期，5月的信心指数会反弹至53.5。 最新数字也创下有记录以来的第二差水平。美国消费者信心指数曾在2022年6月触及50的历史最低值，当时的 通胀失控飙升加剧了人们对经济衰退的担 ...

Group 1 - The seminar titled "Tide Rising in Hong Kong, Synergy for Win-Win" focused on the integration of Shenzhen and Hong Kong capital markets and the process of listing in Hong Kong, highlighting the role of intermediaries in providing comprehensive services throughout the listing cycle [1] - Bank of China Hong Kong (BOCHK) is one of the largest commercial banks in Hong Kong, with a significant presence in Southeast Asia, and plays a crucial role in supporting Chinese enterprises in their overseas expansion [2] - BOCHK has collaborated with BOCI, its international investment banking arm, to provide a full range of investment banking services, including IPOs, mergers and acquisitions, and bond issuance, assisting around 200 companies in listing in Hong Kong over the past 40 years [2] Group 2 - Experts at the seminar emphasized the importance of timing for IPOs, suggesting that companies should not wait for the best market conditions to initiate the listing process, as market conditions can change rapidly [3] - BOCHK has successfully supported hundreds of companies in their Hong Kong listings by offering comprehensive financial services, including public offerings and fund management [3] - The selection of an investment bank is critical for companies, as it represents a choice of a "survival plan" in the Hong Kong capital market, especially in a volatile market environment [3] Group 3 - Shenzhen has many high-potential companies, and Hong Kong is positioned to play a vital role as a "super connector" and "super value creator" in helping mainland enterprises expand into overseas markets [4] - BOCHK aims to support the development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and facilitate high-level opening-up through financial assistance [4] - The integration of policy interpretation, financial services, and resource connection is shaping a new standard for the collaboration between mainland and Hong Kong capital markets, providing strong momentum for the internationalization of enterprises [4]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its forecast for U.S. Treasury yields by the end of 2025, predicting a 10-year yield of 4.5% and a 2-year yield of 3.9% due to various economic factors [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Factors Influencing Predictions - The U.S. economy continues to grow above potential levels, with a tight labor market driving wage increases [3]. - The pace of inflation decline is slowing, with core PCE potentially not reaching the Federal Reserve's 2% target until 2026 [3]. - Expectations for a rate cut cycle have been delayed, with Goldman Sachs forecasting the median federal funds rate to remain between 4.0% and 4.25% in 2025 [3]. Group 2: Implications of Yield Changes - An increase in 10-year Treasury yields to 4.5% may lead to significant adjustments in cross-asset allocations, potentially suppressing valuations in the tech sector due to rising corporate financing costs [3]. - Rising borrowing costs may pressure the real estate and high-yield bond markets [3]. - The attractiveness of U.S. Treasury yields could lead to a return of foreign capital, increasing volatility in emerging market currencies [3]. - Traditional investment strategies may need reevaluation as the "stock-bond balance" strategy becomes ineffective [3]. Group 3: Risks and Warnings - Goldman Sachs warns of risks from economic overheating and policy missteps, suggesting that geopolitical conflicts could drive energy prices higher, potentially pushing the 10-year yield up to 5% in the short term [4]. - If the Federal Reserve is forced to cut rates early due to financial stability risks, the yield curve may experience a steepening reversal [4].

中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 策略 Strategy 上次"股债汇三杀"发生了什么？ >>点击图片查看全文<< 特朗普宣布"对等关税"后，美国股、债、汇市场在4月中下旬一度呈现非常罕见的"三杀"局面，标普500最高回撤10%，10年美债利率快速抬升50bp逼 近4.5%，美元指数也一度回落至98。究其原因，除了政策不确定性带来的短期波动和恐慌外（《 大超预期的"对等关税" 》、《 "对等关税"的冲击会 有多大？ 》），市场更为担心的是，"对等关税"除了破坏美国"例外论"和相对优势的同时（大财政、科技优势与资金再平衡，是美国"例外论"的三个 核心支柱，《 美国"例外论"与"东升西落"的内核 》），是否也动摇了全球投资者对美元资产作为长期安全资产的信心和信任感。近期市场有所企 稳，美股甚至已经完全修复此前跌幅，但上述的担忧情绪依然挥之不去。历史上是否出现过类似的情形？发生的背景是什么，最终是如何收场的？本 文中，我们将讨论历史上"股债汇三杀"出现时的共性，以及对当下的启示。 图表：回顾1970年以来10次典型的"股债汇三杀"阶段，我们将触发因素分为滞胀或类滞胀担忧、货币紧缩 ...

Core Insights - Companies are seeking substantial funding for various AI-related projects, including the construction of data centers and fiber optic networks, which is driving demand in the structured finance market [1] Group 1 - The structured finance market is already extensive and deep, but the demand continues to grow [1] - The need for structured financing is not limited to companies that buy and sell debt; rather, it is an additional tool in their toolbox [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Chinese companies are increasingly issuing overseas, with significant IPOs and large-scale placements in the Hong Kong market, indicating a recovery in the market [2][3] - UBS highlights that the successful placements of major projects like BYD and Xiaomi demonstrate the Hong Kong stock market's capability to support top-tier corporate financing and reflect the strong fundamentals of these companies [2] - The trend of A-share companies choosing to list in Hong Kong is driven by the institutional investor base and financing convenience offered by the Hong Kong market [3] Group 2 - UBS reports a downward trend in the AH premium index, which decreased from around 150 in early 2024 to 134.9 by May 25, 2025, indicating a shift in trading preferences towards H-shares among domestic investors [3] - The Hong Kong stock market remains attractive due to its low valuations and the need for international funds to diversify their investments, supported by its depth and liquidity [4] - There is an expectation of a continued trend of Chinese companies returning to the Hong Kong market for secondary listings, particularly among those that have been exclusively listed in the U.S. [3]

美联储的独立性正面临前所未有的挑战，这可能引发一系列资产价格调整，最终推高金价。 据追风交易台消息，高盛分析师在5月15日的报告中警告，在政治干预日益增加的背景下，美联储的独立性正面临前所未有的挑战。这可能为金价升至 3700美元/盎司甚至4500美元/盎司奠定基础。 美联储独立性风险逐步攀升 在特朗普政府时期，公开批评联储独立性成为常态。 高盛分析表示，虽然历史上总统触动美联储的言论和压力常有，但由于"不得无因解雇"（must not fire without cause）的先例，行政干预对货币政策的直接 影响一直有限。 目前特朗普及其盟友正通过司法途径挑战"不得无因解雇"保护，一旦法院裁定取消该条款，美联储"有限的独立性"将进一步动摇。 高盛认为，若法院裁定联储官员随意解雇违反宪法，最终可能使美联储制度类似于俄罗斯、沙特的央行模式，政治干预将变得普遍。这将对美元的稳定性 和信心产生长远不良影响，美元作为全球储备货币的地位或受威胁。最终导致利率易被操控，长端利率升高，美元走弱，引发金价上行。 美元受蚕食，黄金避险地位凸显 尽管美元在国际结算中的比重仍远高于其他货币，但拜登政府、欧洲及日本央行的政策转向，已有 ...

Core Insights - In May, there was a notable inflow of funds into major Chinese ETFs listed in the United States, driven by the suspension of tariffs between the US and China, which boosted market sentiment [1] - As of May 15, global investors purchased a total of $401.7 million in four major Chinese ETFs listed in the US [1] - Goldman Sachs reported that US institutional investors currently hold approximately $250 billion in Chinese stocks listed in the US [1]

Group 1 - Investors are holding a significant amount of call options, which are set to expire on Friday, potentially leading to a halt in the market's upward momentum as these positions are closed [1][3] - The total value of the options expiring this week is approximately $3.4 trillion, which is considered normal for a monthly expiration [3] - The Cboe put-call ratio has dropped to 0.7, the lowest since February 14, indicating a strong preference for call options among investors [3] Group 2 - As the stock market continues to rise, the preference for call options has become increasingly evident over the past two weeks [3] - Option market makers typically need to buy stocks or index futures to hedge their risk exposure when investors heavily purchase call options [3] - Market volatility is expected to increase next week as market makers will no longer need to hedge large long positions [3]

Core Insights - The book "The Money Trap: Lost Illusions Inside the Tech Bubble" by Alok Sama offers a unique perspective on the tech industry and investment banking, blending personal anecdotes with broader cultural references [1][3][4] - Sama's narrative style is likened to a novel, incorporating elements of existential reflection and humor, which sets it apart from typical non-fiction works in the finance genre [4][9][10] Summary by Sections Author Background - Alok Sama, an investment banker with a background from Wharton, shares his experiences in the tech bubble, providing insights into the world of high finance and its cultural implications [1][4] - Despite his significant career, Sama is relatively unknown, lacking a personal Wikipedia entry, which highlights the contrast between his professional achievements and public recognition [4][7] Book Themes - The book explores the allure and pitfalls of wealth, using personal stories to illustrate the existential dilemmas faced by investment bankers [6][9] - It contrasts the lives of tech moguls like Masayoshi Son and Mark Zuckerberg with Sama's own experiences, suggesting that wealth accumulation often results from luck rather than extraordinary talent [8][9] Narrative Style - Sama's writing is described as engaging and rich in cultural references, drawing comparisons to literary figures like Saul Bellow and Salman Rushdie [4][5] - The narrative includes vivid scenes, such as meetings in luxurious settings, which serve to highlight the absurdities of the high-stakes finance world [3][5] Key Events and Characters - The book recounts significant events from Sama's career, including his time at Morgan Stanley and SoftBank, where he witnessed the rise and fall of major companies [6][7] - Notable figures in the book include Nikesh Arora, who serves as a mentor to Sama, and the various tech leaders who embody the contradictions of wealth and success [7][8] Philosophical Reflections - Sama reflects on the nature of ambition and the relentless pursuit of money, questioning the true value of success in a competitive environment [9][10] - The book concludes with a philosophical exploration of personal agency and destiny, drawing on literary influences to frame his narrative [9][10]