证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·电力设备 电力设备行业跟踪周报 出口退税产业有预期，太空光伏远期空间大 2026 年 01 月 12 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券分析师 曾朵红 执业证书：S0600516080001 021-60199793 zengdh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 阮巧燕 执业证书：S0600517120002 021-60199793 ruanqy@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -8% -1% 6% 13% 20% 27% 34% 41% 48% 55% 62% 2025/1/13 2025/5/13 2025/9/10 2026/1/8 电力设备 沪深300 ◼ 风险提示：投资增速下滑，政策不及市场预期，价格竞争超市场预期 相关研究 《锂电价格快速联动，太空光伏远期 空间大》 2026-01-05 《锂电储能淡季不淡、碳酸锂价格超 预期上涨》 2025-12-29 东吴证券研究所 1 / 48 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 电气设备 10595 上涨 5.02%，表现强于大盘。（本周，1 月 5 日-1 月 9 ...

2026年1月9日，由江苏省储能行业协会主办的"储能+融合发展供需对接会"在南京成功举行。 会议以"储能无界，价值共生"为主题，汇聚"政、产、学、研、用、金"各方力量，共商储能融合发展大计，共促产业供需高效对接，共建开放协同的行 业生态。 会议上，《储能先进技术及应用指南2025》正式发行。中国科学院电工研究所研究员、《储能先进技术及应用指南2025》主编唐西胜介绍并启动发行。 他表示，本书由中国工程院院士舒印彪指导作序，编写团队涵盖清华大学、中国电科院等顶尖机构专家，历时一年打磨，系统梳理了电化学储能、压缩空气 储能、氢储能等核心技术原理与进展。 同时，会上《储能先进技术与应用指南（2026）版》优秀案例征集工作同步启动，将继续秉持"收录行业标杆、赋能产业升级"的宗旨，打造权威性与实 操性兼具的储能领域标杆著作。 江苏省工信厅二级巡视员卢载贵在致辞中指出，当前全球能源格局正经历深刻调整，储能产业已成为推动能源转型的关键力量。江苏作为经济与制造强 省，在储能领域已形成显著优势：产业规模上，企业数量超2000家，2025年产业链开票销售规模突破千亿元；技术创新上，发明专利超6万件，前沿技术成 果丰硕；应用场景上 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the industrial aspect, the off - season for terminal demand is coming, but vehicle sales from January to February may be better than expected due to factors such as early national subsidy distribution, car companies' support for vehicle purchase tax, etc. Energy storage demand grows steadily limited by production capacity. There may be a rush to export lithium batteries in the first quarter due to the reduction of export tax rebates after April 1st. On the supply side, imported concentrates of traders are arriving at ports, but high lithium ore prices and high - level operation of lithium salt plants limit supply growth, and January supply may be flat month - on - month. Inventory also supports prices. In the futures aspect, although a recent meeting aimed to suppress over - expansion of lithium battery production capacity, the market is still strong, and lithium prices may continue to rise due to the expected rush to export. In the medium - to - long - term, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [5] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Demand Analysis New Energy Vehicles - Off - season but Better than Expected - From January to November 2025, domestic new energy vehicle sales reached 1.2466 billion, a year - on - year increase of 23.2%. The off - season from January to February has the lowest vehicle sales, but factors like early national subsidy distribution and car companies' support for purchase tax may make the seasonality of power batteries stronger than expected. Power cell production follows the trend of new energy vehicle sales, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 41.9% to 1245.5GWh from January to December, and a 6.1% month - on - month decline in ternary power in January [11] New Energy Vehicles - Differentiated Electrification Progress in Europe and the US - From January to November 2025, global new energy vehicle sales increased by 20.1% year - on - year to 1.839 billion. European sales increased by 29.2% year - on - year to 3.434 million, while US sales increased by only 0.7% year - on - year to 1.39 million. The US取消IRA新能源汽车补贴 led to an early sales peak, while European countries' subsidies and carbon emission requirements stimulated sales growth. China's new energy vehicle exports from January to November 2025 reached 2.283 million, a year - on - year increase of 100% [15] Energy Storage Market - Strong Orders but Production Capacity Bottlenecks Limit Scheduling Growth - In 2025, China's energy storage cell production reached 529.4GWh, a year - on - year increase of 54%. Energy storage cell inventory is at a three - year low, and the delivery cycle is extended. Scheduling in January increased by 1% month - on - month [20] January Downstream Scheduling Weakens but May be Revised Upward - In December 2023, battery production increased by 3.5% month - on - month, while in January 2024, it decreased by 5.9% month - on - month. Cell production also showed different trends in December and January. In January, affected by weak power demand, the off - season continued, but it may be revised upward due to the expected rush to export, with a continued month - on - month decline expected in February [27] Supply Analysis Stable but Slightly Declining Lithium Carbonate Production - In January, due to the maintenance of some smelters, production scheduling decreased by 1.2% month - on - month. From January to December, domestic lithium carbonate production reached 871,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 44%. This week, mica - based lithium production decreased, but other raw material production made up for it, keeping the production relatively stable [32] China's Monthly Lithium Carbonate Production by Raw Material - Not elaborated further in the content other than presenting relevant charts January Supply of Lithium Carbonate Declines Marginally - From January to November 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were 219,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. In November, Chile's total lithium carbonate exports decreased. It is expected that both lithium concentrate imports and lithium carbonate imports will decline month - on - month in January [41] Supply - Demand Balance and Inventory Lithium Carbonate Supply - Demand Balance Estimation - Not elaborated further in the content other than presenting relevant charts Lithium Carbonate Turns to Inventory Accumulation - This week, social inventory increased by 337 tons, turning to inventory accumulation for the first time in 20 weeks. Upstream and downstream destocking led to accelerated inventory accumulation in the trading sector [44]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the power equipment and new energy industry [1]. Core Insights - The global sales of new energy vehicles are expected to grow rapidly in 2026, driving demand for batteries and materials [1]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is working to regulate competition in the power and energy storage battery industry, which is likely to improve profitability across the supply chain [1]. - Sodium batteries are anticipated to enter large-scale applications, while solid-state battery industrialization is progressing, highlighting the importance of related materials and equipment companies [1]. - The photovoltaic sector is focusing on "anti-involution" as a key investment theme, with regulatory discussions aimed at controlling upstream silicon material prices and enhancing profitability in downstream battery components [1]. - The demand for wind power is expected to continue growing, supported by government initiatives for new photovoltaic and wind power projects [1]. - The energy storage sector remains robust, with recommendations to focus on energy cell and large-scale integration manufacturers [1]. - Hydrogen energy is projected to open new demand avenues, particularly in green hydrogen applications, with a focus on equipment and operational segments [1]. - Nuclear fusion is identified as a long-term energy development direction, with recommendations to monitor core suppliers in this area [1]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles - Expected sales in 2025 for new energy passenger vehicles in China are projected at 12.809 million units, a year-on-year increase of 17.6% [2]. Battery Technology - CATL announced plans for large-scale sodium battery applications in 2026, while solid-state battery prototypes are entering real vehicle testing [2]. Photovoltaic Industry - The cancellation of VAT export rebates for photovoltaic products is set to take effect from April 1, 2026, impacting market dynamics [2]. - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing price adjustments, with silicon material prices rising and a focus on maintaining profitability in the supply chain [15][19]. Wind Power - The wind power sector saw significant growth, with a 22.06% increase in stock prices for wind energy companies [10][13]. Energy Storage - The price of lithium carbonate has risen significantly, with current prices around 115,000-119,000 RMB per ton, reflecting a 19.1% increase [27]. - Energy cell prices for various models have also increased, with the average price for 100 Ah cells at 0.403 RMB per watt-hour, up from previous levels [28]. Market Trends - The overall power equipment and new energy sector saw a 5.02% increase in stock prices, outperforming the broader market indices [10][13].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Far East Energy Storage, has submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with CMB International as its sole sponsor, focusing on the research, manufacturing, and sales of energy storage system solutions [1] Company Summary - Far East Energy Storage specializes in providing comprehensive solutions for the entire lifecycle of energy storage projects, serving global clients with applications in large-scale and commercial energy storage [1] - The company achieved an independent energy storage installation capacity of 1.3 GWh in the first nine months of 2025, ranking first globally among providers of energy storage asset lifecycle solutions [1] - In terms of energy storage system shipments, the company ranked fifth globally with 3.7 GWh in 2024 [1] - The company's revenue primarily comes from China, but it plans to expand into overseas markets starting in the second half of 2024, with some overseas revenue expected by 2025 [1] - As of the latest feasible date, the company has signed sales contracts with clients in China, the United States, Japan, Hungary, Poland, Spain, and Mexico [1] Industry Summary - The global energy storage system market size has grown from 15.5 billion yuan in 2020 to 20.24 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 90.0%, and is expected to reach 1.5305 trillion yuan by 2030 [1] - The Chinese market is one of the fastest-growing markets globally, projected to grow from 73.8 billion yuan in 2024 to 657 billion yuan by 2030, supported by favorable policies [1]

Core Insights - Chinese energy storage companies are rapidly expanding their overseas orders, with a total expected scale of nearly 284.26 GWh by 2025, which is 3.49 times the new installed capacity of 81.5 GWh in 2024 [2] - The leading regions for these orders are Europe (61.82 GWh), Australia (53.91 GWh), and Asia (excluding China) (51.50 GWh) [2] - Notable companies include CATL, which leads in Australia, the Middle East, and North America, while Hicharge Energy leads in Europe and Asia [2] Company Rankings - The top three companies by overseas order volume are: - CATL: 56.9 GWh - Hicharge Energy: 34.01 GWh - Star Charge: 33.74 GWh [2][5] - Other significant players include BYD (19.7 GWh), Trina Solar (16.613 GWh), and Yanshan Energy (12.56 GWh) [5][6] Regional Breakdown - The order distribution by region shows: - Europe: 61.82 GWh - Australia: 53.91 GWh - Asia (excluding China): 51.50 GWh - North America: 46.57 GWh - Middle East: 42 GWh - South America: 24.21 GWh - Africa: 4.37 GWh [2][5] Notable Contracts - Hicharge Energy signed a strategic cooperation agreement for a 1 GWh energy storage system with Energy 3000 in Europe [8] - Yanshan Energy has signed contracts for over 5 GWh of storage projects in Poland [8] - CATL has agreements for 3 GWh of battery storage systems in Australia with various partners [16][21]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a significant upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 4100 points and achieving a historical 16 consecutive days of gains, driven by sectors such as commercial aerospace, controllable nuclear fusion, brain-computer interfaces, humanoid robots, and resource stocks [1][11]. Group 1: Market Trends - The current market rally is attributed to concentrated inflows from previously cautious funds, with a notable focus on thematic stocks and small-cap stocks rather than traditional allocation strategies [3][13]. - Short-term market sentiment remains high, with no signs of weakening emotional indicators, suggesting that the upward trend in thematic and small-cap stocks may continue until after the Two Sessions [3][13]. - The market is currently characterized by a high level of trading activity, with a significant increase in transaction volume, indicating strong investor confidence [16]. Group 2: Sector Recommendations - Analysts recommend focusing on sectors with high cost-performance ratios, particularly those benefiting from external demand recovery, such as gaming, duty-free, batteries, engineering machinery, and agricultural chemicals [4][14]. - The commercial aerospace sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with expectations of continued upward momentum despite potential short-term profit-taking pressures [19]. - The resource sector, particularly traditional manufacturing, is advised for increased allocation, with a focus on enhancing pricing power [3][13]. Group 3: Future Outlook - February is anticipated to be a favorable period for the market, with historical data suggesting that significant trading volumes often lead to sustained upward trends [16]. - The market is expected to enter a phase of basic performance evaluation after the annual report disclosures in January, which may provide opportunities for investors to capitalize on growth potential [17]. - The overall sentiment indicates that the upward potential in the market outweighs the risks, with a focus on sectors that align with long-term growth trends, such as AI and semiconductor industries [20].

Overall Viewpoint - This week, there were multiple supply-side events in the new energy sector: (1) Four ministries held a symposium on power and energy storage battery industries to regulate industry competition; (2) The "anti-involution" trend in the photovoltaic sector was influenced by market information, leading to a continuous decline in polysilicon futures; (3) Export tax rebates for photovoltaic products will be canceled starting April 1, 2026, while battery product export tax rates will gradually decrease to a cancellation by 2027. The new energy industry's "anti-involution" is inherently complex and challenging, with the state aiming to maintain international competitiveness. Balancing market and policy adjustments will evolve accordingly. Therefore, the direction of the photovoltaic industry's "anti-involution" will not change, focusing more on execution coordination and method restructuring; the battery industry is more about preventive reminders against energy storage battery oversupply; the adjustment of export tax rebate policies is expected to optimize the supply side, potentially leading to a short-term export rush [4]. Investment Perspective - (1) Market enthusiasm is currently focused on commercial aerospace and space computing, with wind power stocks such as Goldwind Technology, Taisheng Wind Energy, and Mingyang Smart Energy, as well as photovoltaic stocks like Junda Co., Oriental Sunrise, and Maiwei Co., having accumulated significant price increases, detaching from their core business fundamentals, making it inadvisable to chase high prices at this time [4]. - (2) AI power: There is optimism regarding domestic computing power demand rebounding after the NVIDIA H200 release; the HVDC solution is expected to ramp up, and SST technology and collaboration progress are likely to materialize; this can also align with AI applications to form sector rotation; the capital expenditure situation for North American data centers in 2027 needs to be assessed during the US stock annual report period for risk evaluation [4]. - (3) During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, based on the dual benefits of China's future industries and the EU carbon tariff in 2026, there is optimism for the coordinated, large-scale, and advanced construction of hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol [5]. - (4) For energy storage/lithium battery upstream: The overall game on the lithium battery demand side is focused on domestic energy storage bidding in 2026; data on energy storage and vehicle terminals still need to be tracked, making it difficult to confirm or refute; the investment ranking for lithium battery materials is: lithium carbonate > lithium hexafluorophosphate > aluminum foil > separator > copper foil > anode; lithium carbonate prices still have upward momentum in the short term [5].

Group 1 - The recent improvement in market liquidity has driven the A-share market's rise, with a notable increase in margin trading balance by over 125 billion yuan in just half a month, leading to a more than 35% increase in trading volume [2][8] - Historical data indicates that similar market conditions have occurred six times in the past decade, with a high probability of continued strength in the A-share market over the next 10, 20, and 250 trading days following such volume increases [9][12] - However, there are signs of structural overheating, particularly in the commercial aerospace index, which has seen a significant increase in turnover rate and trading volume share, indicating a need for fundamental support for such rapid trading concentration [2][9] Group 2 - The negative impact of AI on the U.S. employment market is becoming evident, with December's non-farm payrolls falling short of expectations and a cumulative reduction of 340,000 jobs in sectors heavily affected by AI [3][15] - The ongoing concerns about a prolonged interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve are alleviating fears of a second inflation wave, benefiting commodity prices as the demand-supply gap becomes more pronounced [3][23] - The geopolitical tensions are altering inventory behaviors among market participants, leading to increased stockpiling and a significant rise in copper and silver inventories since 2025 [24][27] Group 3 - Domestic policies aimed at reducing "involution" are being implemented, with industrial PPI showing a positive trend, indicating a shift from price drag to support for corporate revenues [4][35] - The recent regulatory focus on the photovoltaic industry has raised concerns about the commitment to anti-involution policies, but the overall direction remains focused on improving corporate profitability through reasonable policy guidance [4][40] - The market is expected to see improvements in corporate earnings as the anti-involution policies take effect, with a focus on preventing monopolistic practices while fostering innovation [4][42] Group 4 - The report maintains an optimistic outlook for the A-share market, suggesting that the ongoing liquidity improvements and fundamental changes will drive future performance [5][43] - Recommendations include focusing on industrial resource products that resonate with AI investments and global manufacturing recovery, as well as sectors benefiting from domestic consumption recovery [5][43]

Group 1 - The article highlights the stark contrast between the energy development strategies of the US and China, particularly in the fields of consumer energy storage and solar power generation [1][3] - China has significantly advanced in renewable energy technologies, with a 90% reduction in the prices of residential and portable photovoltaic panels over the past decade, largely due to its large-scale manufacturing capabilities [2] - In 2024, China is projected to account for 94% of the global production capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries, with companies like BYD and CATL leading the international market [2] Group 2 - The author observed a wide range of innovative energy storage products at CES from Chinese manufacturers, including a portable sodium-ion energy storage system and advanced solar power solutions [2] - A Shenzhen-based company showcased a modern and user-friendly product design, indicating the growing market presence of second-tier manufacturers in Europe and their recent establishment in the US [3] - China is expected to add more solar power generation capacity in 2024 than the total added by all other countries combined, reflecting its aggressive investment in renewable energy [3]