广发证券 资深宏观分析师 王丹 bjwangdan@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 4 月 EPMI （战略新兴行业 PMI ）环比下行 10.2 个点至 49.4 。从季节性特征看，本月环比降幅为 2014 年有这一数据以来同期最大；绝对景气 水平亦降至同期次低，仅高于 2022 年 4 月。中观景气面同步收缩， 7 大细分行业中 3 个位于景气扩张区间，较 3 月减少 4 个。 第二， 分项指标看，产需均有所下行，出口订单下滑幅度较大。（ 1 ）生产、产品订货、出口订货指标环比分别下行 16.1 、 15.4 和 17.6 个点，出口 订货指标绝对水平降至 40 以下；（ 2 ）生产跟随订单主动收缩，显示企业对需求变化有充分预期。供需关系相对稳定，产需比例为 2.6 ，好于 2023 年 和 2024 年的平均水平；（ 3 ）两大价格指标转降，购进价格和销售价格环比分别下行 4.8 和 4.4 个点；（ 4 ）就业指标环比下行 5.9 个点，单月环比 降幅为 2023 年以来最大，我们此前在报告《风险计提之后：偶发冲回与积极对冲》中指出，目前我国外贸直接和间接带动就业人员数估计在 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The April EPMI (Emerging Industry PMI) decreased by 10.2 points to 49.4, marking the largest decline for this month since 2014, with the absolute level being the second lowest for the same period, only higher than April 2022 [1][6][5]. Summary by Sections EPMI Overview - The April EPMI stands at 49.4, down 10.2 points, indicating a significant contraction in emerging industries [6][5]. - Among seven major sub-industries, only three are in the expansion zone, a decrease of four from March [1][7]. Sub-Indicators Analysis - Production, product orders, and export orders fell by 16.1, 15.4, and 17.6 points respectively, with export orders dropping below 40 [2][7]. - The production-to-demand ratio is at 2.6, better than the averages for 2023 and 2024 [2][7]. - Price indicators have also declined, with purchase prices and sales prices down by 4.8 and 4.4 points respectively [2][8]. - Employment indicators fell by 5.9 points, the largest monthly decline in 2023, with foreign trade estimated to support around 170 million jobs, accounting for 24% of total employment [2][7]. - Loan difficulty decreased by 3.3 points, indicating a more relaxed monetary policy environment [2][9]. Manufacturing PMI Outlook - The manufacturing PMI is likely to slow down in April, typically a peak season for industry, but historically shows a slight decline compared to March [3][9]. - High-frequency data indicates a slowdown in industries related to external demand, while domestic demand sectors like steel and coke show stronger operating rates [3][10]. Sector Performance - The energy-saving and environmental protection, as well as the biotechnology sectors, experienced relatively smaller declines, indicating their lower correlation with external demand [3][10]. - The new generation information technology, new energy vehicles, and new energy sectors are leading with a prosperity index above 50, driven by trends in artificial intelligence and supportive policies [3][11]. Policy Response - The EPMI data reflects external demand impacts, prompting policy attention, with the State Council emphasizing the need for counter-cyclical adjustments [4][12]. - A special long-term bond issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan is set to accelerate fiscal progress, with expectations for policy measures to stabilize growth in the upcoming months [4][12].

Core Viewpoint - The March EPMI increased by 10.6 points to 59.6, indicating a significant improvement in the economic climate, reaching the second-highest level for March since 2019, only behind March 2021 [1][6][8]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The production, order, and export indices rose by 21.6, 13.7, and 11.6 points respectively, reflecting a recovery in production as the operational season commenced [2][9]. - The production-to-demand ratio stands at 3.3, indicating a marginal improvement in the supply-demand balance compared to the averages from 2021 to 2024 [2][10]. - Employment indicators improved by 5.8 points, marking the second consecutive month of positive change [2][12]. Group 2: Sector Performance - All seven major emerging industries are in the expansion zone, with significant increases in the new generation information technology sector, which rose by 27.1 points to above 60 [4][14]. - High-end equipment manufacturing and new materials sectors saw increases of 16.4 and 9.0 points respectively, supported by government policies promoting emerging industries [4][14]. - The new energy vehicle sector increased by 8.1 points, reflecting the impact of policy incentives [4][15]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The EPMI's upward trend is crucial for assessing the manufacturing and economic climate, with expectations that the manufacturing PMI could return to around 51 in March [3][12]. - The upcoming months are critical for sustaining economic recovery, influenced by debt management policies and fiscal changes [5][15].

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